Israel Folau and Offsiders

Oh dear,
My sons taped offsiders on Sunday and I was forced to watch the program.

Apparently Folau is both a bigot and speaking hate speech when he says homosexual who engage in sexual acts and do not repent and thus go to hell. Indeed they believe he should be sacked by the ARU.

It gets worse. apparently this leads young homosexuals in active sexual relationships to commit suicide. That's right people who have no regard for God and indeed do not recognise him get all upset about being told they are going to hell.
Sorry heaven is not an inclusive place!

Now as I said last time on this issue Folau should have also added that any heterosexuals who engage in fornication or adultery and do not repent receive the same punishment. This makes the offsiders panel just look stupid.

It should also be said Folau has NEVER said homosexuals should bot be allowed to play rugby union.

If the ARU sacked Folau for his comments then he would have very good grounds to sue as I am advised.
I am sure the new CEO knows this but cannot say this.

The By-elections and all that

There are a few things to discuss on this topic.

First there is the STUPID RULING.
Next  is the MYTH OF 1911. I couldn't believe that Insiders and other places were so ignorant.
Lastly we need to know how swings go when the an Opposition seat is up for grabs at a by-election. We of course go to KEVIN BONHAM.

Now we are in a position  to make cogitate on this subject.
In previous by-elections on this issue the punters have given the Court of Disputed Returns the finger.
Will they continue to do this? On the surface you would expect them to do so after all all four (previous) mp's had a good right to think they were okay in lieu with Sykes V Cleary as we have seen before however their electorates may not think like that now.

We shall see

The reason behind the raid on Cohen

Noah Feldman , a legal scholar, writes a fascinating article in the New York Review of Books ( a fantastic publication) on the reason behind the raid on Cohen ,Trump's lawyer.

It might not have anything to do with Russia but have to do with the two ( Cohen and Trump) covering up a crime.

Even if this is the case could Trump be prosecuted?
As Mr Spock would say fascinating.

The 1970s global cooling myth

David Kirtley on Skeptical Science writes HERE and HERE on the myth that in the 1970s global cooling was all the rage.

Jim Rose I hope you read this!

Around the Traps 11/5/18

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Quiggin on may-day-3, the-nuclear-zombie-undead-yet-again, against-stupidity-the-gods-themselves-contend-in-vain
• Danielle Wood and Brendan Coates on five-ways-the-treasurer-could-boost-the-budget-bottom-line
• Rebecca Cassells and Alan Duncan on eight-charts-on-our-growing-tax-problem-what-abandoning-tax-reform-means-for-taxpayers
• Roy Hay on season-wrap-goals-and-own-goals-in-australian-football
• Mark the Ballot on may-poll-aggregate-update
• Mumble on Newspoll net good for the economy
• Ross Gittins on whatever-tuesdays-budget-holds-its-sure-to-be-fudged, a-blue-skies-budget ,budget-assumes-kinder-gentler-world
• Croaking Cassandra on why-not-split-up-the-reserve-bank, a-generous-subsidy-that-pays-off ,something-of-a-mixed-bag, revisiting-the-nzsf, some-public-opinion-on-immigration
• Richard Holden on government-timing-tricks-hide-the-real-budget-story , morrisons-budget-tax-plan-is-another-missed-opportunity
• Samantha Hepburn on australias-fuel-stockpile-is-perilously-low-and-it-may-be-too-late-for-a-refill
• Ann Twomey on dual-citizenship-debacle-claims-five-more-mps-and-sounds-a-stern-warning-for-future-parliamentarians
• Robert Tanton and Jinjing Li on most-of-the-benefits-from-the-budget-tax-cuts-will-help-the-rich-get-richer
• John Blaxland on trust-is-the-second-casualty-in-the-war-on-terror
• Kevin Bonham on the-expected-super-saturday-by-elections
• Greg Jericho on the-flat-tax-is-really-about-cutting-services-not-taxes , an-unfunded-uncosted-tax-plan-plays-into-labors-hands-again
• Ross Guest on research-check-we-still-dont-have-proof-that-cutting-company-taxes-will-boost-jobs-and-wages
• The Kouk on is-the-government-s-budget-surplus-just-pure-luck
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-how-inflation-in-china-and-the-us-could-affect-australia
• Tracey Ireland on how-captain-cook-became-a-contested-national-symbol
• Ben Phillips et al on modelling-2018-19-federal-budget-personal-income-tax-measures Thanks Peter Whiteford
• Danielle Wood and John Daley on grattan-modelling-of-the-governments-personal-income-tax-plan-highlights-costly-cuts-to-taxes-for-high-income-earners

Northern America

• run75441 on why-states-should-not-be-allowed-to-alter-the-aca-with-waviers
• Brad De Long on trump-end-of-republican-party
• Tim Duy on rising-producer-prices-signal-pressure-on-profit-margins Thanks Mark
• Josh Bivens, Lawrence Mishel and  John Scmitt on its-not-just-monopoly-and-monopsony-how-market-power-has-affected-american-wages Thanks Mark
• Robert Stavins on californias-crude-oil-production-and-its-climate-change-policies Thanks Mark
• Justin Fox on black-unemployment-is-at-an-all-time-low-but-there-s-a-catch Thanks Mark
• Economic Principals on after the next recession Thanks Mark
• Dan Crawford on note-from-spencer
• Alan Auerbach , Wilaim Gale and Aaron Krupkin on the-federal_budget_outlook Thanks Brad
• Noah Smith on supply-and-demand-does-a-poor-job-of-explaining-depressed-wages Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on the-reagan-tax-cuts-and-defense-buildup-supply-side-miracle-or-keynesian-stimulus
• Noah Feldman on crooked-trump-legal-swamp
• New Deal Democrats on march-jolts-report-powerful-further-evidence-of-a-taboo-against-rasing-wages
• The conversable economist on welfare-reform-legacy-and-next-steps , some-economic-effects-of-us-import-restraints
• Calculated Risk on key-measures-show-inflation-increased-YOY-in-June ,the-projected-improvement-in-life-expectancy
• Lavina Lee on method-trump-s-madness-on-iran
• Ezra Klein on donald-trump-illiberal-undemocratic-elections-politics
• David Roberts on nuclear-power-renewables-plants-retirements-us
• Dani Rodrik on american-trade-policy-double-standard Thanks Mark
• Brad DeLong on this-year-post-great-recession-america-falls-behind-post-great-depression-america-in-recovery
• 538 on why-americans-like-obama-so-much-better-than-trump
• Jane Coaston on trump-mccain-2016-2018-right-wing

Europe

• Luke Dawes on how-political-crisis-armenia-could-upset-russia-and-turkey-syria
• Mainly Macro on theresa-mays-perpetual-brexit-and-Labour's-forsaken-base
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-european-central-banks-lack-of-accountability-has-consequences , guest-contribution-the-ecbs-strong-euro-problem
• stumbling and mumbling on on-britains-intellectual-decline

Asia

• Simon Roughneen on malaysias-political-treadmill
• Sam Roggeveen on china-catching-up-usa-except-key-measure
• Dominic Tierney on america-keeps-accidentally-helping-iran
• Robin Wright on trump-destroys-the-iran-dealand-a-lot-more
• Dina Esfandiary on can-europe-salvage-iran-deal
• Greg Earl on malaysia-election-coming-of-age
• Thomas Pepinsky on did-election-just-cause-malaysian-democratisation
• Naser Gobadzadeh on religious-backlash-loosens-clerics-grip-on-legacy-of-1979-iranian-revolution
• Milton Osborne on courageous-voice-truth-silenced-cambodia

Wonk

• Tim Harford on judge-the-value-of-what-you-have-by-what-you-had-to-give-up-to-get-it
• The grumpy economist on groundhog-day-in-argentina
• Andreas Ortman on kalle-and-me-schumpeter-too
• Nick Rowe on a-very-simple-model-of-too-much-city
• Kruggers on unnatural-economics-wonkish , the-death-of-acceleration-wonkishThanks Mark
• The conversable economist on index-funds-vs-hedge-funds-buffetts-bet
• Stephen Grenville on banks-misbehaving-everywhere
• Tyler Cowen on make-robert-aumanns-agreement-theorem
• Growth economics on Paradox of markups Thanks Mark
• Mainly Macro on fiscal-policy-remains-in-stone-age
• Antonio Fatas on its-low-inflation-trap Thanks Mark
• stumbling and mumbling on job-guarantee-marxist-or-keynesian

General

• Andrew Gelman on klam-ferris
• Understanding Society on what-boss-wants-to-hear Thanks Mark
• Jennifer Williams on what-is-ramadan-2018-start-date-muslim-islam-about
• The conversable economist on more-from-your-horseshoe-crab-blood-economics-leader Thanks Mark

Climate

• Real Climate on climate-indicators , transparency-in-climate-science
• and Then Theres Physics on speaking-out , its-mostly-about-risk, rcp8-5
• Arctic Sea Ice on piomas-may-2018
• moyhu on feedback-climate-algebra-and-circuitry, april-global-surface-templs-down-0016 , templs-monthly-updates-of-global-land-and-sea-temperatures
• Skeptical Science on the 1970s global cooling myth part 2 , gw-melting-antarctic-ice-from-below
• Cassandra's Legacy on negative-emission-technologies
• Open Mind on sea-level-change-on-the-u-s-east-coast-part-2
• Stoat on believing-in-climate-change-but-not-behaving-sustainably
• Rabett run on robert-h-goddard-father-of-nasa-climate-science-and-renewable-energy
• David Appell on crop-yields-under-global-warming

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• replication-crisis-centered-social-psychology
• what-killed-alchemy
• political-reporter-asks-questions-polling
• 43-loneliest-number-youll-ever
• berk-ozler-spend-2-million-test-5-minute-patience-training
• evaluating-sigmund-freud-compare-biologists-economists
• 16-and-pregnant
• John Cook on least-squares
• statschat on briefly
• Doing Bayesian data analysis on just-published-rejecting-or-accepting
• Kaiser Fung on moviepass-reminds-me-of-groupon

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• nuttin, not happy Dave

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• private-and-public-value
• Tim Harford on understanding-the-wisdom-and-madness-of-crowds

Vox wonk

• israel-s-immigration-unique-assimilation-story-message
• making-some-sense-cryptocurrencies
• globalisation-government-popularity-and-great-skill-divide
• yield-curve-and-stock-market
• tax-evasion-and-inequality
• refocusing-debate-risk-sharing-under-european-deposit-insurance-scheme
• explaining-germany-s-exceptional-recovery-new-ebook
• risk-reduction-and-risk-sharing-eu-role-better-fiscal-rules
• beauty-contests-and-term-structure
• disappearing-gazelles-new-evidence-administrative-data
• inflation-globalisation-and-competition
• pros-and-cons-sick-pay

The high court does not pass the pub test

When writing this one should take into account I only did introduction to law at university. I still remember Donoghue V Stevenson  with great fondness if only for the Judge using the book of Luke to assist in defining who is my neighbour

 The High Court in its guise as the Court of Disputed Returns has made a silly decision.
Way back  in the Sykes V Cleary decision The Court of Disputed Returns made a sensible judgement on what constitutes making reasonable steps to renounce foreign citizenship.
The Present court has now changed that but have given no reason why. I do find it strange that when new interpretations are made no reasons are given why the previous one was wrong.
See Anne Twomey  on the ruling.

Does the decision pass the pub test?

I would argue it doesn't. ironically it appears the UK is the major problem here. The Court has assumed there is no major problem between winning pre-selection and being nominated as a candidate. given what we have seen from both sides this assumption is not realised.

Secondly it appears the black letter law interpretation is selective as George Willams found out to his cost last year.
Lastly the replacement of Fiona Nash was a complete joke.  Here the next candidate on the senate list gained a government job AFTER the election. She had no idea Nash would be disqualified. Yet the court ruled this made her ineligible to be a Senator. so she needed to be prescient.

All in all the court does not come out of this looking  very good.

The Iran Deal

As one would expect Trump stopped the Iran deal undoubtedly because it was done under Obama.
See:

• John Carlson
• Simon Mahon
• Tony Walker
• Dina Esfandiary

And Europe's reaction

A few points. 

If  one does not trust Iran ( and who does) why would you destroy an agreement where inspectors can do can rigorous inspections. No agreement no inspections.

Mike Pompeo in his confirmation hearings could not give any evidence that Iran had broken the agreement indeed no-one has. So the agreement is thus being torn up even though it has not been broken.

This agreement again shows Trump breaks agreement.His word is therefore worthless. No wonder North Korea became a nuclear power on his watch. 

The Trump statement is specious at best. moreover there is no plan B! Indeed taken at his word Trump does not appear to understand much about it.

You simply will not get another agreement. No-one is going to sign up with Trump

NO other nation wanted this agreement torn up. All other nations wanted this agreement to continue.

If you wanted Iran to become a nuclear power this is the action you would take.

It seems  the only adult, Jim Mattis,  has no influence anymore

THIS is very good as is THIS.
Barkley Rosser also.
Lavina Lee has a different aspect to all this/

On Iran this is fascinating