You know you are getting long in the tooth when you remember things that people in the market are to young to remember.
Prior to the last quarterly CPI number everyone was expecting further rate cuts. However that result was bad. One warning no-one saw it coming. suddenly people hopped onto the rare rises bandwagon.
The new expanded monthly CPI serries came out and seemingly confirmed bad inflation data. The full series does not go back very far and it is a new series.
In the past we have had rogue CPI numbers. Just ask Glenn Stevens. He experienced not one but two!! New series always experience problems sometimes few sometimes more.
Either way we need to be quite wary and thus the RBA has to be conservative. Hence today the only responsible decisions is to leave rates where they are. Mildly restrictive.
The pint here is we do not know where rates are going yet. We do need more information. Rates may well rise but they could also fall
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