Around the Traps 1/1/21 New Year Edition

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on evil-lord-keynes-flies-to-rescue-of-disbelieving-liberals, nows-good-time-to-work-on-your-rules-to-live-on, why-much-of-what-were-told-about-taxes-is-off-beam
• Catherine Bennett on should-you-go-to-a-sydney-new-years-eve-party-nsw-has-handled-covid-outbreak-well-but-risks-remain, a-third-of-sydneys-covid-outbreak-is-outside-the-northern-beaches-its-time-to-mandate-masks
• Rachel Brown on 3-fallacies-that-blighted-this-years-covid-commentary-have-you-fallen-foul-of-any-of-them
• Peter Martin on sure-interest-rates-are-negative-but-so-are-some-prices-and-when-you-look-around-theyre-everywhere
• Kevin Bonham on 3020-federal-polling-year-in-review
• Simon Holmes a'Court on last-year-was-dismal-in-many-respects-but-it-was-a-landmark-for-renewables-in-australia

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-us-consumer-benefits-from-chinese-imports, protectionist-high-water-mark, guest-contribution-the-year-2020-in-three-phrases
• Peter Dorman on rolling-out-vaccine
• Tyler Cowen on larry-summers-on-the-cash-payments
• Robert Waldmann on is-an-increased-federa-deficit-good-or-bad
• Dereck Thompson on deep-story-trumpism
• Sussan Glasser on letter-from-trumps-washington/the-trumperdammerung-is-a-fitting-end-to-2020
• John Cassidy on the-next-big-challenge-trump-proofing-the-presidency
• Greg Ip on yes-it-is-possible-to-have-too-much-stimulus Thanks Tyler Cowen

Europe

• Andrew Glencross on brexit-deal-done-whats-in-it-and-where-next-for-the-uk-and-eu
• Mainly Macro on it-is-inevitable-that-labour-in-opposition-will-not a champion of-social liberalism

Asia

• on holidays

Wonk

• Uneasy Money on white-and-hogan-on-hayek-and-cassel-on-the-causes-of-the-great-depression
• The conversable Economist on joseph-schumpeter-capitalism, the-planning-fallacy-or-how-i-ever-get-anything-done
• Tim Harford on christmas-in-an-alternate-2020
• John Quiggin on public-debt-after-the-pandemic
• Brian Resnick on herd-immunity-natural-infection-worst-idea-of-2020
• Alex Tabarrok on the-new-strain-and-the-need-for-speed

General

• Dan Caprar and Ben Walker on heres-why-youre-checking-work-emails-on-holidays-and-how-to-stop

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on the-impact-of-climate-change-and-the-cost-of-climate-policies, have-co2-emissions-peaked
• Moyhu on how-averaging-absolute-temperatures-goes-wrong-use anomalies
• Real Climate on 2020-vision
• Skeptical Science on coping-with-fire-scorched-land-more-prone-to-mudslides

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• does-regression-discontinuity-or-more-generally-causal-identification-statistical-significance-make-you-gullible
  
• end-of-novel-beginning-of-job-that-point-at-which-you-make-the-decision-to-stop-thinking-and-start-finishing
  
• le-detection-club
  
• retired-computer-science-professor-argues-that-decisions-are-being-made-by-algorithms-that-are-mathematically-incapable-of-bias-what-does-this-mean
  
• bugs-bunny-asks-one-dose-or-two
  
• why-we-sleep-a-tale-of-non-replication
  
• three-unblinded-mice
  
• to-all-the-reviewers-weve-loved-before
  
• the conversable economist on a-dose-of-skepticism-about-randomized-trials, lessons-from-world-war-ii-statisticians
• Kaiser Fung on data-agnostic-arguments-are-not-data-driven

Econometrics

• on holidays

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• progress-and-greed
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading
• Peter Martin on economics-books-to-read-over-summer

Vox wonk

on holidays

A bit of sport

 First cricket.

Is there anything better than a team shot to bits picking itself up and redeeming themselves. India did just that. The leadership should be congratulated. Losing you best batsman, one of your best bowlers almost made it certain India would lose bigtime BUT they won easily.

Rahane as Captain was supreme. sure he was lucky however he rode that luck and captained well. The pitch was very good. Yet again we see gripping cricket when bowlers are in command. I still think Australia will win the series. A draw looks likely in Sydanee which should never have had the test. In recent times its pitch has been crap. Brisbane will suit out attack very well.

All in all it is a great series .

Second football

I watched a very entertaining A league match last night between the not so mighty Wanderers and newcomers Macarthur. The newcomers look a very good side. Strong at the back, industrious in the midfield and a strong bench. They lack firepower up front.

Although they were easily the better side last night it was the Wanderers who had the best attempts on goal and in the end should have won. They have a young aboriginal lad at  right back who looks very promising. Their no.10 has no skill, can't shoot and no height.  The side looked much better when Muller came on although he clearly lacks fitness.

The  three games I have watched thus far have all be good to watch. Let us hope it continues

Moscato is a drinkable wine

 On Christmas we do not have hot meals because it is usually stinking hot here in Sydanee. As it was it was cool.

Still we had antipasto and salads for lunch and salmon, prawns and salad for dinner.

Moscato is a wonderful accompaniment to all of the above. My wife who usually does not drink likes the wine as does her mother. Probably because of the fruity taste.  She likes the white variety and I prefer the red one.

It is an excellent wine to a light meal. Quite good for sub-continental meals as well.  

David Glasner on fire

 David Glasner is always interesting and educative. Right on time in the holiday season we have two articles on the money from his Uneasy Money blog.

• a-primer-on-says-law-and-walrass-law
  
• white-and-hogan-on-hayek-and-cassel-on-the-causes-of-the-great-depression
  

about the 'conservative' media

 David Appell usually writes about the climate  but he has a very useful articles care of a series of tweets by conservative Martin Sheffield about how the so called conservatives media in the USA works.

They are players not journalists

Around the Traps 25/12/20 Christmas edition

 It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Dianne Cook on open-data-shows-lightning-not-arson-was-the-likely-cause-of-most-victorian-bushfires-last-summer
• Mellissa Tyler on coronavirus-china-and-climate-where-australias-foreign-relations-attention-will-be-in-2021
• Croaking Cassandra on productivity-productivity-commission-and-all-that
• renew economy on renewables-will-push-power-prices-lower-even-after-liddell-closure-says-aemc, grid-operators-turn-to-wind-solar-and-batteries-as-system-issues-grow, extinction-rebellion-has-much-to-learn-from-angus-taylor-australias-worst-minister
• Catherine Bennett on australia-on-alert-as-sydneys-northern-beaches-covid-cluster-grows-linked-to-us-strain
• Peter Martin on book-chapter-australia-had-sound-economic-management-during-the-crisis
• Ross Gittins on year-of-wonders-coronacession-not-as-bad-as-feared, experts-work-overtime-to-take-fun-out-of-christmas, working-from-home-takes-us-back-to-the-future
• Stephen Minas on she-won-t-be-right-australian-style-brexit
• Richard Dennis on stop-believing-in-fairy-tales-australias-coal-industry-doesnt-employ-many-people-or-pay-its-fair-share-of-tax

Northern America

• Charles Gey on in-trump-election-fraud-cases-federal-judges-upheld-the-rule-of-law-but-thats-not-enough-to-fix-us-politics
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-november-existing-home-sales, a-few-comments-on-november-new-home-sales
• Mathew Yglesias on the-real-economic-challenge-in-2021 Thanks Brad
• Emily Stewart on fake-news-social-media-2020
• Menzie Chinn on quick-primer-on-stock-market-vs-gdp
• Henry Grabar and Ben Mathis-Lilley on donald-trump-stupid-moments-dumb-comments
• Tyler Cowen on dr fauci-straussian
• Brad De Long on austerity-will-kill-the-income-growth-that-helped-trump
• David Appell on about-conservative-media

Europe

• James empty blog on the-new-variant
• Reamon Lydon on changes-in-earnings-during-covid-19

Asia

• Victor Abramowicz on missile-spotter-s-guide-north-korea-and-beyond
• Aarti Bettigeri on can-modi-calm-farm

Wonk

• Uneasy Money on a-primer-on-says-law-and-walrass-law
• Tim Harford on a-brief-history-of-commercialising-christmas, working-from-home-when-the-cracks-start-to-show
• Roger Farmer on self-fulfilling-prophecies-quasi-non-ergodicity-and-wealth-inequality
• the conversable economist on working-later-in-life, what-should-be-included-in-income-inequality
• Stochastic Trend on annual-review-2020
• Tyler Cowen on the-new-covid-strain-and-its-policy-implications, update-on-the-new-covid-19-strain
• Jason Furman and Lawrence Summers on a reconsideration of fiscal policy in the era od low interest rates Thanks Brad
• Timothy Graham on how-extremist-messaging-co-opts-emergency-events
• Barkley Rosser on bubble-bubble-toil-and-trouble

General

• Brad De Long on the-great-conjunction-of-jupiter-and-saturn
• Sen Wilentz on souvenir-of-the-lost-world-of-the-new-york-jazz-club

Climate

• run 75441 on monarch-butterflies-are-disappearing-from-the-environment
• and Then Theres Physics on where-have-all-the-stsers-gone
• Real Climate on the-number-of-tropical-cyclones-in-the-north-atlantic

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• risk-aversion-is-not-a-thing
  
• more-on-the-heckman-curve
  
• publishing-in-antarctica
  
• the-neurips-2020-broader-impacts-experiment
  
• no-its-not-a-prisoners-dilemma-the-second-in-an-ongoing-series
  
• how-many-infectious-people-are-likely-to-show-up-at-an-event
  
• breaking-masterclass-announces-new-class-on-science-of-sleep-by-neuroscientist-sleep-expert-matthew-walker-available-now
  
• red-team-prepublication-review-update
  
• update-on-ieees-refusal-to-issue-corrections
  
• dream-investigation-results-official-report-by-the-minecraft-speedrunning-team
  
• flaxman-et-al-respond-to-criticisms-of-their-estimates-of-effects-of-anti-coronavirus-policies
  
• how-to-think-about-this-senatorial-stock-picking-study-it-does-not-address-specific-concerns-about-insider-trading
  
• i-aint-the-lotus
  
• statschat on good-enough-that-you-dont-need-statistics
• Kaiser Fung on the-second-worst-kept-secret-of-the-pandemic-year-and-some-decimal-mischief

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on climate-finance

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• a-brace-of-leviathans
  

vox wonk

• adjusting-population-density-account-land-quality
  
• tracking-gdp-using-google-trends-and-machine-learning
  
• where-globalisation-was-hiding-and-how-far-it-might-go
  
• review-economic-studies-opioid-crisis
  
• gender-wage-growth-gaps-across-fields-study-europe
  
• avoiding-zombification-after-covid-19-consumption-game-changer
  
• thriving-post-pandemic-economy
  
• workers-bargaining-power-business-cycle-fluctuations-and-phillips-curve
  
• polarised-elections-raise-economic-uncertainty
  
• long-shadow-monetary-policy
  
• valuing-gene-therapies-orphan-pediatric-disease
  
• closing-gap-between-vocational-and-general-education
  
• political-polarisation-impedes-public-policy-response-covid-19
  
• covid-19-diagnostic-testing-and-viral-load-reporting
  
• vernacularisation-and-linguistic-democratisation
  
• integration-global-value-chains-can-reduce-child-labour
  
• covid-economics-new-kind-publication1
  

Merry Christmas everyone

 2020 has been a tough year for most. I was one of the few that loved the lockdown. Covid appears just when you think it has gone away as we fond out in sydanee.

That is possible the reason why most people will celebrate Christmas a lot more than usual and wil be yearning for 2021 with all the vaccines.

Lets hope 2021 is a bewdy

What I hate about Christmas

 I can't say I like many christmas carols. firstly the music is bad. We have a really good band at Church given covid but even they could not make the music sound good. What makes this worse is references to snow etc when in Australia we have a stinking hot christmas. I have never thought of a white christmas and having experienced one di not think it was all that great , grate yes but not great.

The other thing that always got on my goat even as a child was having to eat hot meals on a stinking hot day. No-one ever told me why we were eating a hot meal only to eat it. My wife and I are in agreement on food at Christmas. for lunch we will have antipasto and salads and then for dibber salmon. Washed down with a nice white of course.

Try and have a good one

LIddell

 A lot of nonsense has been written and said about the Liddell closure and its impact on electricity prices.

The critics say look at the closure of Hazelwood and see what occurred.

The problem is the owner of Liddell clearly outlined how they could replace the output of Liddell when they closed it unlike Hazelwood.

AEMO has now released a paper on the closure of Liddell and guess what prices fall ( because of renewables).

On a related topic I could not help laughing when poor old Rafe from Catallaxy blames renewables on a possible blackout in NSW because Liddell had broken down. Yep every time a coal fired power station has a unit break down it isn't the coal fired power stations fault it is renewables.

Funny how it occurs most summers when it is stinking hot.

Por old Rafe still has not come to terms with the fact SA is a net exporter of energy. If his theories of windmills are correct they should be a massive importer. Poor old Rafe 

Jill Biden and a bit more

 Some prat wrote an article in the WSJ criticising Jill Biden for calling herself doctor. ( It should be noted Paul Gigot commissioned this article. He of criticising Democrats for deficits but never ever Republicans.)

The 'logic' goes if you have not delivered a baby you should not call yourself doctor. However this excludes most of the medical profession!  As it happens Jill Biden got herself a doctorate of education.

In my eyes writing a large thesis on a topic is much more about calling yourself a doctor than simply getting to undergraduate degrees with some topping up.

Lets face it it is all about the culture wars again.

Then we had a senate subcommittee 'examining fraud in the election but again no evidence was produced. At this stage perhaps THIS article is suffice.

I do hope Biden has a plan B as Obama did not. Perhaps there is more pressure on the Republicans to be bipartisan but I cannot see it. Indeed when some senators clearly wanting Georgia officials to stop people voting to help their two candidates in the two senate races it seems the republicans have not changed and perhaps cannot.

I am glad I live in Australia

Around the Traps 18/12/20

 It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Greg Jericho on the-morrison-government-wanted-tax-cuts-for-the-wealthy-and-that-is-what-they-have-delivered, australias-path-to-net-zero-emissions-is-massively-behind-schedule
• Elise Klein on whos-really-behaving-badly-confronting-australias-cashless-welfare-card
• Deborah Ralston on home-ownership-and-super-are-far-more-entwined-than-you-might-think
• David Peetz on the-truth-about-much-casual-work-its-really-about-permanent-insecurity, chance-for-genuine-industrial-relations-reform-thrown-under-the-omnibus
• Croaking Cassandra on monetary-policy-in-2020
• Mark the Graph on Covid-19-on-australian-economy
• Ross Gittins on productivity-is-magical-but-dont-forget-the-side effects, start-of-end-for-ratings-agencies-dubious-influence, mistreating-workers-isnt-smart-path-to-prosperity, job-insecurity-is-about-shifting-risks
• renew economy on wind-solar-and-storage-still-cheapest-by-far-latest-csiro-gencost-report-says-CSIRO, australia-left-behind-as-world-leaders-brush-off-morrisons-empty-climate-gestures, coalitions-do-nothing-ev-strategy-puts-australia-in-slow-lane-in-electric-transition, taylors-emissions-projections-assume-rapid-and-accelerated-exit-of-coal-power, south-australia-aims-for-more-than-500-pct-renewables-in-new-climate-plan, export-superpower-aemo-to-model-even-faster-paths-to-net-zero-emissions
• Ann Davies on murray-darling-basin-plan-will-need-overhaul-in-2026-as-droughts-increase-report-says
• Jeremy Moss on the-paris-agreement-5-years-on-big-coal-exporters-like-australia-face-a-reckoning
• Robert Constanza and Bruce Chapman on revenue-contingent-wage-loans-a-proposal-for-supporting-jobs-in-times-of-crisis
• Peter Whiteford et al on our-research-shows-more-australians-receive-unemployment-payments-than-you-think
• Tim Buckley on chinas-ban-is-less-of-a-threat-to-australias-coal-industry-than-international-climate-ambition
• Joo-Cheong Tham on why-the-morrison-governments-double-dipping-gambit-fails-the-pub-test
• Tania Sorrell et al on vaccines-alone-wont-keep-australia-safe-in-2021-heres-what-else-we-need-to-do
• Isaac Gross on negative-rates-explained-how-money-for-less-than-nothing-is-helping-out-the-budget
• Ben Mather et al on eastern-australia-has-hundreds-of-enigmatic-volcanoes-new-research-shows-how-they-formed
• James Burton et al on how-the-size-and-shape-of-dried-leaves-can-turn-small-flames-into-colossal-bushfire
• Poverty and Inequality on inequality-in-australia-2020-part-2-who-is-affected-and-why  Thanks Peter Whiteford
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-4-things-australias-covid-response-got-right
• John Quiggin on fighting-on-two-fronts-and-losing-on-both
• Peter Martin on so-far-so-good-myefo-budget-update-shows-recovery-gathering-pace
• Michelle Grattan on grattan-on-friday-six-issues-on-scott-morrisons-mind-over-summer
• Nick Gruen on the-iron-law-of-business-as-usual-what-is-it-and-can-we-escape-it

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on inflation-looming-phillips-curve-vs-quantity-theory
• Erin Hurley on joe-biden-s-pentagon-pick-sends-message
• Peter Dorman on the-failure-of-the-public-health-establishment
• New Deal Democrat on november-inflation-tame-again-with-the-economy-weak-but-real-wage-gains-strong, the-gop-has-crossed-the-rubicon
• the conversable economist on some-thoughts-on-us-wealth-patterns
• Ben German on net-zero-emissions-2050-study
• Aaron Rupar on ron-johnson-election-irregularities-hearing-chris-krebs-gary-peters-trump
• Jennie Gersen on trumps-coup-attempt-isnt-over
• Geoffrey Skulley et al on why-the-suburbs-have-shifted-blue
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-november-housing-starts
• Tony Walker on joe-bidens-approach-to-the-middle-east-will-be-very-different-from-trumps-especially-on-iran
• Tyler Cowen on i-am-not-so-worried-about-inflation
• Alex Ward on usa-cyber-hack-solar-winds-microsoft

Europe

• Mainly Macro on if-uk-government-fails-to-do-deal-over-unfair-competition, brexit-may-be-pointless-but-it-will-be-with-us-for-sometime
• Peter McPhee on as-protests-roil-france-macron-faces-a-wicked-problem-and-it-could-lead-to-his-downfall

Asia

• Adnan Aamir on dilemma-pakistan-uae-cuts-work-visas
• Oriano Mastro on russia-and-china-team-indian-ocean
• Frank Yuan on when-china-lashed-out
• Manaka Guruswamy on in-modis-india-the-love-jihad-myth-is-made-law

Wonk

• Ian Sample on autoantibodies-may-be-driving-severe-covid-cases-study-shows
• stumbling and mumbling on restraining-capital, alienation-doublethink
• Stochastic Trend on energy-efficiency-what-has-it-delivered
• the conversable economist on what-is-austrian-economics, the-coase-theorem-process-of-becoming
• Donald Rothwell on bringing-space-law-into-21st-century
• Ken Melvin on market-capitalism
• Uneasy Money on bitcoin-doesnt-rule
• Shannon Torrens on missed-opportunity-international-criminal-court
• Tyler Cowen on the-ideological-shift-of-the-libertarian-movement-on-pandemics

General

• Zoltan Szabo on decoding-the-music-masterpieces-handels-messiah-oratorio-composed-in-just-24-days
• Tyler Cowen on a-sound-mind-how-i-fell-in-love-with-classical-music
• Brad De Long on simon-schama-why-john-le-carr%C3%A9-is-a-writer-of-substance

Climate

• Noahopinion on why-im-so-excited-about-solar-and-batteries
• Pep Candell et al on global-emissions-are-down-by-an-unprecedented-7-but-dont-start-celebrating-just-yet
• Stoat on a-warning-on-climate-and-risk-of-societal-collapse
• Moyhu on ber-global-up-by-025-from-october
• and Then Theres Physics on societal-collapse
• skeptical science on a 50 yr old global warming forecast that still holds up
• Mark Doman et al on arctic-sea-ice-dramatic-transformation-as-seen-by-satellites
• Real Climate on an-ever-more-perfect-dataset

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• 17-state-attorney-generals-100-congressmembers-and-the-association-for-psychological-science-walk-into-a-bar
  
• what-do-americans-think-about-coronavirus-restrictions-lets-see-what-the-data-say
  
• debate-involving-a-bad-analysis-of-gre-scores
  
• you-can-figure-out-the-approximate-length-of-our-blog-lag-now
  
• literally-a-textbook-problem-if-you-get-a-positive-covid-test-how-likely-is-it-that-its-a-false-positive
  
• deterministic-thinking-meets-fallacy-one-sided-bet
  
• if
  
• inferring-the-effectiveness-of-government-interventions-against-covid-19
  
• the-likelihood-principle-in-model-check-and-model-evaluation
  
• in-this-particular-battle-between-physicists-and-economists-im-taking-the-economists-side
  
• risk-aversion-is-not-a-thing
  
• statschat on election-hypothesis-testing, new-improved-covid, causes-and-implications
• Kaiser Fung on these-conditions-make-the-pfizer-vaccine-result-irrelevant-to-you, one-dose-pfizer-is-not-happening-and-heres-why, unexpected-sightings-and-unknowns-from-the-pfizer-result

Econometrics

• Freakometrics on big data, the tech giants and insurance
• No Hesitations on climate-science-meets-indirect-inference, polarized-pandemic-response-across-US statese-

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• technology-old-and-new
  
• Milton Cockburn on wrong-side-won-remembering-john-le-carre

Vox Wonk

• green-bonds-and-carbon-emissions-exploring-case-rating-system-firm-level
  
• why-prudent-people-might-avoid-vaccinations
  
• when-there-no-gender-discrimination-promotion-science
  
• trade-unionism-and-welfare-rural-urban-migrant-workers-china
  
• next-public-health-challenge
  
• international-shock-transmission-through-heterogeneous-firms
  
• some-key-principles-drive-g20-economic-policy-response-2021
  
• covid-19-and-gender-gap-advanced-economies
  
• search-and-information-frictions-global-e-commerce-platforms
  
• good-local-governance-mitigates-negative-productivity-returns-credit-rationing
  
• how-internet-changing-demand-healthcare
  
• stronger-together-policy-mix-strikes-back
  
• pollution-permits-and-financing-costs
  
• how-social-position-shapes-views-fairness
  
• achieving-child-literacy-and-numeracy-world-s-poorest-areas
  

Nick Gruen wants/needs your help

 Nick Gruen who is both the nicest and clear thinking person on the web has written another-neoliberal-another-neoliberalism.

He wants feedback on his work so please read it and assist him if he needs it.

I am reading the whole kitten kabootle over Christmas but doubt very much I will have much to help him with.

Renewables, coal etc

 Three articles caught my eye.

chinas-ban-is-less-of-a-threat-to-australias-coal-industry-than-international-climate-ambition

wind-solar-and-storage-still-cheapest-by-far-latest-csiro-gencost-report-says

batteries-and-the-road-not-taken

People seeking work.

 Here from the Conversation are two really interesting articles.

Firstly  we have revenue-contingent-wage-loans-a-proposal-for-supporting-jobs-in-times-of-crisis

Next is our-research-shows-more-australians-receive-unemployment-payments-than-you-think

Bowral was great

 My family went to Bowral for  a bit less than a week.

The place we stayed at was fantastic. close to shops ( woolworths serves coffee, good coffee), great cooking facilities etc.

The area was pleasant enough, plenty of walking trails if that is you fancy. It aint mine but I had the great excuse of being hit on the leg twice by the same batsman so stayed at 'home' and read the last two Dune novels. Still a good read.

The Bradman museum is excessively priced at $25 however as a CUSA umpire I got to see it for free. I also examined Bradman oval which I highly rated. The outfield was sensational.

All in all a good trip.

Got home and got the flu probably for my youngest son. Thus I had to have a covid test. What a horrible experience. Firstly they assume you have a  smart phone. not many people have their details filled out on paper!!  The test itself was terrible. They put whatever it is right down your mouth. It took about ten times until this was successful. Then down both of your nose thingys. That is horrible as well.

Then they take a lot of time until they confirm what you knew all along. you do not have it. 

Taking a week's break

Around the Traps 4/11/20

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Greg Jericho on using-super-to-fix-wages-growth-is-as-disingenuous-as-using-it-to-fix-the-housing-market, better-but-still-bad-despite-positive-gdp-figures-australia-is-not-out-of-a-recession
• Stephen Duckett and Anika Stobart on 3-ways-to-transform-our-soviet-style-aged-care-mess-into-a-system-that-puts-older-australians-first
• Jeff Borland on new-finding-boosting-jobseeker-wouldnt-keep-australians-away-from-paid-work
• Peter Martin on top-economists-want-jobseeker-boosted-by-100-per-week-and-tied-to-wages, it-isnt-right-to-say-we-are-out-of-recession-as-these-six-graphs-demonstrate
• renew economy on renewables-and-batteries-not-gas-the-best-solution-to-liddell-closure-new-report-says, australias-emissions-clipped-by-covid-but-the-cuts-may-be-short-lived, transparency-lost-as-taylor-seizes-control-of-now-secret-energy-minister-forums, hidden-secrets-that-angus-taylor-tried-to-bury-in-australias-latest-emissions-data, angus-taylors-ev-and-transport-plan-will-present-false-narrative-on-choice
• Dylan McConnell on australias-states-have-been-forced-to-go-it-alone-on-renewable-energy-but-its-a-risky-strategy
• Paul Taucher and Dean Aszkielowisz on why-australian-commanders-need-to-be-held-responsible-for-alleged-war-crimes-in-afghanistan
• Julia Rowlands and Rebecca Boden on how-australian-vice-chancellors-pay-came-to-average-1-million-and-why-its-a-problem
• Melissa Conley Tyler on australia-can-repair-its-relationship-with-china-here-are-3-ways-to-start
• Damien Spry on we-ve-been-trolled-expect-more-it-because-it-worked
• Sam Roggeveen on china-explaining-tweet
• Ross Gittins on super-risk-be-poorer-today-so-you-can-live-it-up-tomorrow
• Croaking Cassandra on could-do-better
• Jon Day and Scott Heron on severely-threatened-and-deteriorating-global-authority-on-nature-lists-the-great-barrier-reef-as-critical
• Tim Baxter on unjustifiable-new-report-shows-how-the-nations-gas-expansion-puts-australians-in-harms-way
• Daniel Flitton on more-pollies-in-more-posts
• Institutional Economics on when-the-money-supply-is-really-money-demand
• Joel Lexchin et al on should-australians-be-worried-about-waiting-for-a-covid-vaccine-when-the-uk-has-just-approved-pfizers
• Greg Earl on national-champion-departs-scene-china-food-fight-looms

Northern America

• the conversable economist on when-hamilton-and-jefferson-agreed-on-fisheries, time-for-rethink-of-federal-budget
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-you-dont-miss-international-cooperation-until-its-gone
• Paul Whitely et al on donald-trump-how-covid-19-killed-his-hope-of-re-election-new-research
• Madeleine Nyst on donald-trump-vs-democratic-tradition
• Ella Nilson on georgia-senate-runoffs-9-questions
• Barkley Rosser on unprecedented
• Erin Hurley on the-surprise-of-biden
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-religious-liberty-revolutionary-roman-catholic-diocese-cuomo-amy-coney-barrett
• Nathaniel Rackich and Ryan Best on there-wasnt-that-much-split-ticket-voting-in-2020

Europe

• Alexey Muraviev on russia-s-red-star-red-sea
• Umair Irfan on uk-first-approves-pfizer-vaccine-biontech-covid-19

Asia

• Rocky Intan on what-rcep-can-tell-us-about-geopolitics-asia, what-rcep-can-tell-us-about-geopolitics-asia
• Bob Bowker on fallout-assassinating-mohsen-fakhrizadeh
• Paul Fritjers on three-lessons-on-chinese-culture-and-politics
• Chongi Feng on whats-behind-chinas-bullying-of-australia-it-sees-a-soft-target-and-an-essential-one
• Edmond Roy on india-s-farmers-take-modi
• Jen Kirby on joshua-wong-agnes-chow-prison-hong-kong-pro-democracy-china
• Timothy McLaughlin on hong-kong-joshua-wong
• Khang Vu on north-korea-s-very-odd-year

Wonk

• Tim Harford on why-are-we-so-obsessed-with-saving-christmas, self-help-books-that-actually-help
  
• Seamus Coffey on the-fiscal-response-to-covid-19
• Laura Hararo and Madzokere on whats-the-difference-between-viral-shedding-and-reinfection-with-covid-19
• Coppolla comment on the-asymmetric-mechanics-of-tether
• Mainly Macro on fiscal-policy-during-and-after-the -coronavirus-pandemic
• John Quiggin on the-path-to-decarbonization
• the conversable economist on why-some-of-shift-to-telecommuting-will-stick

General

• Gregory Moore on why-theres-a-lot-more-to-love-about-jacarandas-than-just-their-purple-flowers
• Fabio Capitanio et al on the-floor-is-lava-after-1-5-billion-years-in-flux-heres-how-a-new-stronger-crust-set-the-stage-for-life-on-earth

Climate

• Real Climate on thinking-small-and-big
• Skeptical Science on fighting-climate-cheaper-than-inaction
• David Appell on solar-cycle-25-off-to-good-start
• Celia McMichael et al on climate-change-is-resulting-in-profound-immediate-and-worsening-health-impacts-over-120-researchers-say
• hotwhopper on hottest-november-in-australia-during-la nina
• skeptical science on how declining ice in clouds makes high climate sensitivity plausible

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• unfair-to-james-watson
  
• weve-got-to-look-at-the-analyses-the-real-granular-data-its-always-tough-when-youre-looking-at-a-press-release-to-figure-out-whats-going-on
• basbolls-audenesque-paragraph-on-science-writing-followed-by-a-resurrection-of-a-10-year-old-debate-on-gladwell
  
• understanding-janet-yellen
  
• hamiltonian-monte-carlo-using-an-adjoint-differentiated-laplace-approximation-bayesian-inference-for-latent-gaussian-models-and-beyond
  
• the-shrinkage-trilogy-how-to-be-bayesian-in-analyzing-simple-experiments
  
• how-to-think-about-correlation-its-the-slope-of-the-regression-when-x-and-y-have-been-standardized
  
• whats-googles-definition-of-retractable
  
• discussion-of-uncertainties-in-the-coronavirus-mask-study-leads-us-to-think-about-some-issues
  
• Kaiser Fung on the-press-release-derby-has-set-an-unrealistic-bar-for-the-coronavirus-vaccine, its-time-to-visit-florida-again-graphically

Econometrics

• Freakometrics on optimal control and Covid
• No Hesitations on the-great-recession-appears-so-quaint

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

Vox Wonk

• lasting-effects-terms-trade-shocks-business-cycles
  
• making-rallies-great-again
  
• devastating-legacy-secret-war-laos
  
• technology-within-and-across-firms
  
• farm-product-prices-redistribution-and-early-great-depression-us
  
• devastating-legacy-secret-war-laos
  
• technology-within-and-across-firms
  
• how-monetary-policy-affects-investment-euro-area
  
• spread-covid-19-and-attending-football-matches-england
  
• antitrust-digital-economy-igm-forum-survey
  
• firms-facing-negative-deposit-rates-invest-more-and-create-more-jobs
  
• potential-consequences-post-brexit-trade-barriers-earnings-inequality-uk
  
• mask-usage-reduces-covid-19-deaths-us-county-level-analysis
  
• role-managerial-quality-during-great-recession
  
• using-regulation-dismantle-pyramidal-business-groups
  
• role-managerial-quality-during-great-recession
  
• political-economy-africa-s-interior-coast-roads
  
• capitalist-systems-and-income-inequality
  
• european-financial-integration-during-covid-19-crisis
  

Paul Fletcher is hopeless.

 Listen to Fletcher being intermewed by Patricia Karvelas.

He has no idea. 

Just to show he does not understand what journalism is Michelle Grattan outlines the 15 questions.

Oh dear the government has gone BONKERS

Morrison is not good at Foreign Affairs

 Scott Morison is poor at Foreign Affairs and he is not helped by a hapless minister.

Let us not forget our 'problems' with China started with a very amateurish attempt to force China to say how Covid started. At no stage did Australia try to get on countries that would support such a concept. No this was an afterthought.

China has been very tough on us ever since culminating with an acknowledged troll showing a doctored image about an Australian soldier in Afghanistan.

For the recent tweet see:

Sam Roggeveen

Damien Spry

On repairing our relationship with China see Melissa Spry.

Morrison should have either ignored the tweet or perhaps merely acknowledged the amateurish application. 

Signing up to the Belt and road initiative is a good start . You do not have to use it merely sign up for it.

Gerard Henderson does not understand history

 I had the misfortune on the weekend of reading a Henderson column.

Oh dear. He clearly has no idea of history.

Let us go back to the rise of Nazi Germany. The Nazis put out a lot of propaganda on the jews. It did not work at first. In 1934 when They recommended people boycott retail stores owned by Jews most Germans ignored it and kept on shopping at said stores. There are photos of old women walking past burly SA thugs and shopping in such stores. The 'boycott' lasted one day. However by 1938 and when Kristallnacht eventuated most Germans ( according to both Gestapo and Sopade records) agreed Jews were a fifth column in Germany. One must remember that most people thought war was about to occur. So within four years there was a vast turnaround in attitudes. ( We might call it Goebbels's revenge who was humiliated in 1934).Thus it took 4 years for their propaganda to inculcate German culture.

Lets fast forward to Donald Trump. He e realises his lies will be seen for what they are so calls all the press fake news. He tries to subvert major institutions which are vital for democracy. ( See HERE  and HERE for example)

Thus in 2020 most republican voters believe Trump lost the election because of voter fraud.

See any similarities. It is all too much for Henderson. He never was a true conservative merely a faux conservative. 

Mo wonder he writes for the Australian.

The elevation of Trump to President has shown us all the faux conservatives, pseudo intellectuals who are too lazy and simply do not have the mind to understand simple but important concepts.

The Best solution to replacing Liddell

 We have known for some time AGL was going to close Liddell power station down. It is simply uneconomic because of its age. Remember also AGL is not paying full dollar for the coal!

When AGL announced the closure it said the power station would be replaced by renewables, a gas station and a battery. This seemed to be lost on critics and the Federal government. They stated prices would rise just as they did after Hazelwood closed.

We now have new modelling commissioned it must be said by Greenpeace that shows renewables and batteries are they way to replace the Liddell power plant.

Ah you say it was commissioned by Greenpeace so what. Well on my reading of the work it appears pretty solid. Only criticise the work not who commissioned the work. Shoddy work is usually pretty easy to recognise. This work is far from shoddy!

THIS adds more to the problem.

I should add Matt Kean the NSW Minister deserve some accolades. He can do what Angus Taylor the federal Minister cannot.

Around the Traps 30/11/20

 It is time for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Robert Breunig on workers-bear-71-to-100-of-the-cost-of-increases-in-compulsory-super
• Peter Martin on retirement-incomes-review-finds-problems-more-super-wont-solve
• Helen Hodgson on what-matters-is-the-home-review-finds-most-retirees-well-off-some-very-badly-off
• Mark Kenny on albanese-is-running-out-of-time-to-solve-labors-climate-crisis-he-needs-a-plan-that-works-for-two-australias
• Daniel Flitton on australia-s-mission-afghanistan-what-was-it-again
• renew economy on australias-carbon-twist-taxing-consumers-who-refuse-to-burn-fossil-fuels, matt-kean-takes-on-angus-taylor-im-not-on-the-side-of-vested-interests, coal-and-gas-lobbies-take-aim-at-nsw-renewable-energy-plan, big-batteries-are-getting-bigger-and-smarter-and-doing-things-fossil-fuels-cant-do, renewables-and-batteries-not-gas-the-best-solution-to-liddell-closure-new-report-says
• Institutional Economics on risk-taking-for-thee-but-not-for-me, the-super-wars-again?
• Greg Jericho on the-latest-employment-figures-were-a-pleasant-surprise-but-we-have-a-long-way-to-go, in-the-debate-about-super-the-actual-point-of-a-retirement-income-policy-is-lost
• John Freebairn on axing-stamp-duty-is-a-great-idea-but-nsw-is-going-about-it-the-wrong-way
• Melissa Davey on australias-bushfire-season-saw-spikes-in-emergency-respiratory-visits-and-inhaler-sales-report-finds
• Michael Keating on from-here-on-our-recovery-will-need-more-than-fiscal-policy-itll-need-redistribution
• Croaking Cassandra on robertson-playing-distraction
• Kevin Davis on why-is-the-federal-government-trying-to-abolish-a-valuable-safeguard-for-consumers
• Ann Davies on gladys-berejiklians-defence-of-pork-barrelling-is-only-the-latest-serious-failure-of-judgement

Northern America

• Daniel Cooper and Brendan O'Connor on is-trumps-truculence-an-attempted-coup-or-the-last-ditch-efforts-of-a-man-whose-star-is-fading
• Kaleigh Rogers on the-birther-myth-stuck-around-for-years-the-election-fraud-myth-might-too
• the conversable economist on futures-and-options-for-farmers-but-why-not-homeowners, what-if-all-jobs-were-potentially-part, an-economist-chews-over-thanksgiving
• Adam Tooze on republicans-joe-biden-history-congress-president-democrat
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-october-new-home-sales
• Amy Davidson-Sorkin on donald-trump-and-a-lesson-in-how-coups-fail
• Climate Asylum on fraud-detection-and-the-presidential-election
• Richard Holden on janet-yellen-the-very-model-of-a-modern-madam-secretary

Europe

• Mainly Macro on politicians-and-experts
• Chris Bertram on uk-hostile-environment-immigration-policy-condemned
• stumbling and mumbling on maxxed-out

Asia

• David Brewster on india-heads-towards-economic-autarky
• Gavan Butler on thailand-at-a-critical-juncture-with-pro-democracy-protesters-again-set-to-clash-with-police
• Barkley Rosser on yemen-more-damage-to-world-peace
• Oriana Mastro on beijing-s-line-south-china-sea-nothing-to-see-here
• David Hopkins on myanmar-s-military-backed-opposition-party-stares-political-abyss

Wonk

• Paul Glaziou and Chris Del  Mar on face-masks-cut-disease-spread-in-the-lab-but-have-less-impact-in-the-community-we-need-to-know-why
• David Feeney on submarine-capability-gap
• John Quiggin on climate-change-after-the-pandemic, covid-and-the-climate-emergency
• Tim Harford on the-power-of-negative-thinking
• the grumpy economist on a-neo-fisherian-challenge-and-reconciliation
• the conversable economist on are-editors-just-failed-writers
• Michael Head on why-the-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-is-now-a-global-game-changer
• Kadir Atalay et al on so-you-think-economic-downturns-cost-lives-our-findings-show-they-dont
• Michael Smithson on data-from-45-countries-show-containing-covid-vs-saving-the-economy-is-a-false-dichotomy
• Nigel McMillan on new-research-suggests-immunity-to-covid-is-better-than-we-first-thought
• Macro Musings on storytelling-friday-chart-edition
• Renee Jeffrey on who-was-hugo-grotius-and-what-is-grotian-world

General

• Andrew Gelman on best-comics-of-2010-2019
• Kevin Brophy on my-favourite-detective-kurt-wallander-too-grumpy-to-like-relatable-enough-to-get-under-your-skin

Climate

• BOM blog on prepare-for-hotter-days-says-the-state-of-the-climate-2020-report-for-australia
• skeptical science on shearing-thwaites-slow

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• today-in-spam
  
• the-200-year-old-mentor
  
• greek-statistician-is-in-trouble-for-telling-the-truth
  
• further-formalization-of-the-multiverse-idea-in-statistical-modeling
  
• a-new-hot-hand-paradox
  
• is-causality-as-explicit-in-fake-data-simulation-as-it-should-be
  
• a-very-short-statistical-consulting-story
  
• Kaiser Fung on good-vaccine-news-without-glorifying-faux-precision

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on essie-maasoumi-et-econometric-theory, classification-under-asymmetric-loss
• Freakometrics on recent econometric techniques

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• analogia
  

Vox Wonk

• long-run-perspective-productivity-slowdown-spain-1850
  
• inequality-choice-quality
  
• relabelling-retirement-and-regret
  
• regulating-fintech-europe-lessons-wirecard
  
• development-fiscal-capacity-new-insights-african-data
  
• making-european-green-deal-really-work
  
• work-care-and-gender-across-uk-lockdowns
  
• teacher-allocation-and-school-performance-italy
  
• managing-transition-post-vaccine-world
  
• public-preferences-prioritising-covid-19-vaccine
  
• covid-19-public-procurement-regimes-and-trade-policy
  
• lockdowns-and-uk-economic-performance
  
• sticky-expectations-unified-explanation-bond-and-currency-puzzles
  
• expanding-gender-gap-us-due-covid-19
  
• unified-state-and-federal-policies-could-have-prevented-two-thirds-covid-19-deaths-us