That is the title of a very good paper written by the esteemed James Hamilton.
Yes I know both Mark Thoma and Brad De Long have previously highlighted this paper but that was when it was only available via the NBER avenue and that is not available to all.
There are TWO choices
The expurgated version was in Friday's Around the Traps in the Vox wonk section.
It is HERE.
James has also made his total article available via his wonderful ECONBROWSER blog.
It is HERE. ( You have to use his link to view it.)
Fascinating as Mr Spock used to say