Around the Traps 30/6/17

It is time for Around the Traps again

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Quiggin on murray-darling-plan-doomed-to-fail , adani-trouble-on-all-fronts
• John Edwards on rising-interest-rates-and-rba
• Mark the Graph on jobs-quarterly , jobs-quarterly_25
• Croaking Cassandra on immigration-and-economic-performance , global-impact-visas , who-has-been-getting-residence-visas , best-small-central-bank , who-did-iain-rennie-consult
• The Piping Shrike on no-apology
• The Kouk on the-australian-stock-market-is-a-global-dog , yes-we-re-rich-well-sort-of
• Martin Young and Francis Markham on three-charts-on-australias-addiction-to-poker-machines
• John Fitzgerald on media-scrutiny-of-china-is-critical-for-australia
• Sandra McPhedran and Li Erikkson on men-are-killed-at-a-greater-rate-than-women-in-australia-what-can-we-do-to-reduce-their-risk
• Chris Wallace on note-to-liberals-on-the-leadership-front-best-to-keep-calm-and-carry-on
• Kevin Bonham on will-future-see-even-bigger-senate-crossbench
• Rachael Ong et al on australians-are-working-longer-so-they-can-pay-off-their-mortgage-debt
• Neil Perry on whats-the-economic-value-of-the-great-barrier-reef-its-priceless
• Stephen King on if-only-we-could-see-all-the-credit-card-fees-we-pay

Northern America

• Lane Kenworthy on in-work-poverty-in-the-us Thanks Mark
• Benjamin Sommers et al on Health insurance coverage and health. What the recent evidence tells us  Thanks Brad
• Nicholas Bagley on waivers-federalism-senate-bill-essential-benefits
• Liberty Street on low-productivity-growth-the-capital-formation-link Thanks Mark
• FRB Minneapolis on understanding-income-risk-new-insights-from-big-data Thanks Mark
• Stephen Gordon on education-earnings
• Robert Waldmann on chait-vs-roy-on-baicker-not-really-vs-baicker
• Zack Beachamp on terrorism-muslims-america-islam-trump
• John Cassidy on the-cbo-gives-the-senate-twenty-two-million-reasons-to-reject-the-health-care-bill
• FRBSF on has-dollar-become-more-sensitive-to-interest-rates Thanks Mark
• CBPP on cbo-senate-bill-would-raise-premiums-deductibles-or-both-for-most-marketplace-consumers Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on better-care-reconciliation-act-of-2017-scored , why-drop-the-aca
• Perry Bacon on the-new-cbo-report-on-health-insurance-didnt-do-republicans-any-favors
• Calculated Risk on real-house-prices-and-price-to-rent-ratio-in-April
• Sandwichman on  seattle-minimum-wage seattle-minimum-wage ( not the same)
• Peter Dorman on the-seattle-study-increasing-the-minimum-wage-as-a-way-to-boost-high-income-jobs
• Barkely Rosser on comments-on-profit-and-capital
• Timothy Taylor on higher-local-minimum-wages-updating-results-from-Seattle , over-200000-in-income-what-income-taxes-paidl
• Matthew Yglesias on trump-cant-make-deals
• Ezra Klein on how-trumpism-died
• Promarket on what-drives-bank-bailouts-study-shows-political-interests-play-major-role Thanks Mark
• AEA on a-dark-side-to-the-commodity-boom-africa Thanks Mark
• Brad De Long on must-read-as-eric-rauchway-says-ezra-klein-is-now-shrill-but-ezra-understates-the-problem
• Menzie Chinn on distribution-of-proposed-tax-cuts-under-bcra

Europe

• Magic, Maths and Money on political-and-financial-crises Thanks Mark
• Mainly Macro on brexiteers-versus-economists-one-year-on, when-capturing-middle-ground-works-or-fails, economists-and-euro-for-record
• Thomas Piketty on will-macrons-marchers-take-power Thanks Mark
• Long and Variable on balance-sheet-shrinkage-so-soon , published-instrument-plans-the-financial-policy-committee-do-what-the-mpc-dare-not
• stumbling and mumbling on on-political-salience
• The unassuming economist on cross-country-spillovers-of-fiscal-consolidations-in-the-euro-area Thanks Mark
• Coppola comment on when-vultures-cooperate

Asia

• Robert E Kelly on the-tragedy-of-otto-warmbier
• Hugh White on south-china-sea-us-policy-must-begin-home
• Barkely Rosser on muhammed-bin-nayef-confined-to-his-palace
• Vanessa Newby on lebanon-elections-war-other-means
• Analiese Mcauliffe  on qatar-crisis-why-saudis--want-al-jazeera-gone
• Aly Ratner on false-choice-war-or-accommodation-south-china-sea 
• Zixin Wang and Merriden Varrall on china-child-poor-career-move

Wonk

• stumbling and mumbling on a-case-against-austerity, why-libertarians-should-read-marx , selecting-for-groupthink
• Conversable economist on tobacco-taxes-in-low-and-middle-income-countries , the-challenge-of-electrifying-africa
• Bank Underground on the-forward-guidance-paradox Thanks Mark
• AEA on an-empirical-turn-in-economics-research Thanks Mark 
• Sandwichman on marshalls-magic-confidence-wand
• Ben Bernanke on when growth is not enough Thanks Mark
• Maurice Obstfeld on assessing-global-imbalances-the-nuts-and-bolts Thanks Mark
• Brendan Thomas-Noone on canada-australia-and-liberal-international-order-trump-era
• Stephen Grenville on what-did-we-learn-from-the-asian-crisis
• Ben Zipperer and john Schmitt on the-high-road-seattle-labor-market-and-the-effects-of-the-minimum-wage-increase-data-limitations-and-methodological-problems-bias-new-analysis-of-seattles-minimum-wage-increase Thanks Brad
• Sandwichman on arithmetic-is-hard-wage-bracket-creep
• David Glasner on what-is-this-thing-called-currency-manipulation
• Atul Gawande on how-senates-health-care-bill-threatens-nations-health Thanks Brad
• Peter Dorman on counseling-politics
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-lending-money-to-people-across-the-water-the-british-joint-stock-banking-acts-of-1826-and-1833-and-the-panic-of-1837
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-how-likely-is-another-financial-crisis-it-comes-down-to-what-we-believe
• Nick Rowe on equalising-the-twin-markups-in-a-monopolistically-competitive-macroeconomy
• Doruk Cengiz et al on the effect of minimum wages on the total number of jobs

General

• Cat Hope on why-is-there-so-little-space-for-women-in-jazz-music
• Alastair Blanshard on roman-gladiators-were-war-prisoners-and-criminals-not-sporting-heroes
• Understanding Society on sociology-of-life-expectations 
• Paul Fritjers on quirky-cultural-customs-the-causes-of-death
• Bethan Greener on why-travel-bans-and-changes-to-human-rights-laws-wont-stop-terrorist-attacks
• Paul Haskell-Dowland on three-ways-the-notpetya-cyberattack-is-more-complex-than-wannacry
• Cassandra's Legacy on the-true-story-of-fall-of-troy

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on heatwaves, the-science-police, meeting-people
• John Abraham on new-study-confirms-oceans-warming-rapidly
• Moyhu on temperature-station-distribution-equal
• Gavin Foster on heading-for-warmest-climate-half-billion-years 
• Seth Westra and Hong Xuan Do on globally-floods-seem-to-be-decreasing-even-as-extreme-rainfall-rises-why
• Jasmine Lee et al on the-winners-and-losers-of-antarcticas-great-thaw
• dana1981 on climate-scientists-debunked-deniers-fave-argument

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• analyze-comparisons-thats-better-looking-max-difference-trying-multiple-comparisons-correction
• problems-jargon-jargon-statistically-significant-clinically-significant
• bad-numbers-media-savvy-ivy-league-prof-publishes-textbook-corrupted-dataset
• capitalist-science-solution-replication-crisis
• estimating-public-market-exposure-private-capital-funds-using-bayesian-inference
• bayesian-not-bayesian-enough
• lets-stop-talking-published-research-findings-true-false
• plan-9-ppnas
• Eran Raviv on density-estimation-using-regression
• stats chat on briefly-213 , the-smoking-of-the-green
• John Cook on why-do-linear-prediction-confidence-regions-flare-out , effective-sample-size-for-mcmc
• Kaiser Fung on why-are-there-so-many-open-positions-in-analytics

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• unit-roots-&-structural-breaks
• instrumental-variables-frisch-waugh-theorem
• recent-developments-in-cointegration
• No Hesitations on slides-from-sofie-discussion-of-yang-liu
• James Hamilton on how-to-remove-the-trend-from-economic-variables

Dianne Coyle (quirky+ book reviews)

• is-it-really-curtains-for-globalisation
• humainsing-economists
• economics-in-transition
• Tim Harford on books-about-calling-statistical-bullshit
• Jerome Groopman and Pamela Hartzband on putting-profits-ahead-of-patients

Vox Wonk

• financial-constraints-and-nominal-rigidities
• w-arthur-lewis-and-tradeoffs-economics-and-economists
• magical-warfare-technologies-and-persistence-false-beliefs
• falling-elasticity-global-trade-economic-activity
• acquiring-bank-networks
• unemployment-insurance-and-reservation-wages
• china-s-wto-entry-benefits-us-consumers
• new-indicators-science-intensity-industry
• china-s-wto-entry-benefits-us-consumers
• foreign-direct-investment-and-domestic-firms-production-complexity
• monetary-policy-credit-dynamics-and-economic-activity-developing-countries
• foreign-direct-investment-and-domestic-firms-production-complexity
• greece-s-sovereign-debt-and-economic-realism
• hong-kong-two-stage-economic-experiment
• vox-ten-years-old-month

Interesting results concerning the minimum wage from Seattle

Courtesy of Brad De Long here is a paper entitled the-high-road-seattle-labor-market-and-the-effects-of-the-minimum-wage-increase-data-limitations-and-methodological-problems-bias-new-analysis-of-seattles-minimum-wage-increase

Here is a short but curt comment by Sandwichman.

The Conversable Economist gives a thoughtful look as well.

Late but Peter Dorman.

Brad gives us another study on minimum wages HERE

Health Care in the USA

If you want to view what not to do for health Care in a country then look no further than the US.

Here are some views on firstly the Senate Bill:

• CBPP
• Menzie Chinn and AGAIN
• Perry Bacon 
• Atul Gawande

This gem is courtesy of  Brad De Long. It is an article form the New England Journal of Medicine.

For the life of me I fail to see how vastly reducing the number of people that have health care, boosting premiums for older people and giving tax cuts to wealthy people is a vote winner

Why you should never use the Hodrick Prescott filter

That is the title of a very good paper written by the esteemed James Hamilton.

Yes I know both Mark Thoma and Brad De Long have previously highlighted this paper but that was when it was only available via the NBER avenue and that is not available to all.

There are TWO choices

The expurgated version was in Friday's Around the Traps in the Vox wonk section.
It is HERE.
James has also made his total article available via his wonderful ECONBROWSER blog.
It is HERE. ( You have to use his link to view it.)

Fascinating as Mr Spock used to say

The Socceroos were great

It has taken some time but the Socceroos finally put it all together. For some time they have been dull and listless but today they were energetic, full of vitality and industrious.

WE played a second string Germany and lost 3-2 and  it should have been 6-2. We drew 1-1 with Cameroon and should have lost 3-1 however today we should have won perhaps 4-2 against the best team in the tournament.
Quite easily the best three players were Sainsbury who was a tower in defence, Milligan who except for one moment completely shut out Sanchez out of the game and Irvine who provided the get and go needed in the midfield. Having a back three finally worked hallelujah.

I do have to say certain players lack of class was shown. This is why we did not score the goals we should have. to create so many goal opportunities against the 4th rated  side in the world was a sensational task. Pressure at the highest level meant we just could not convert those opportunities into goals.
It may come in the future. We shall soon learn if Ange is a great coach or a stubborn one. If he is great we shall easily make it to the World cup and certainly get into the final 16. If he is stubborn and simply had some good luck we will struggle to make the world cup and won't win a game.

I think the former is correct and thus am lacking forward to the World Cup.

Around the Traps 23/6/17

It is time for Around the Traps yet again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Andrew King on are-heatwaves-worsening-and-have-hot-days-doubled-in-australia-in-the-last-50-years
• Dennis Muller on mixed-media-how-australias-newspapers-became-locked-in-a-war-of-left-versus-right
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-australia-is-facing-an-interest-rates-dilemma , vital-signs-it-will-take-more-than-asking-for-a-pay-rise-to-fix-australias-wages-problem
• Croaking Cassandra on the-oecd-survey-process , the-secretary-to-the-treasury-on-productivity , emissions-policy-and-immigration-policy, monetary-policy-towards-the-next-recession , a-few-scattered-thoughts-prompted-by-the-ocr, leadership-and-accountability
• Jeff Borland on three-charts-on-how-part-time-work-is-growing-more-slowly-but-more-men-are-doing-it
• Michelle Grattan on australians-shy-away-from-trump-but-strongly-embrace-the-alliance-lowy-poll
• April Reside et al on land-clearing-on-the-rise-as-legal-thinning-proves-far-from-clear-cut
• Ross Guest and Kirsten McDonald on what-australia-can-learn-from-the-new-zealand-retirement-system
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-few-signs-of-life-for-Turnbull-Government
• Lennert Veerman on taxing-sugary-drinks-would-boost-productivity-not-just-health
• Terry Goldsworthy on three-charts-on-australias-declining-homicide-rates
• Bjorn Sturmnberg on get-in-on-the-ground-floor-how-apartments-can-join-the-solar-boom
• Jessie Blackburn on restricting-bail-and-parole-for-those-with-terror-links-is-no-cure-all
• David Blowers on the-governments-new-energy-plans-will-leave-investors-less-confident-than-ever
• Greg Jericho on higher-wages-would-be-nice-mr-lowe-but-weak-unions-make-it-unlikely

Northern America

• Economic Principals on the Landscape Architure
• Jeffrey Binbaum on congress-cant-pretend-tax-cuts-pay-for-themselves Thanks Mark
• Jared Bernstein on congress-wants-to-micromanage-the-federal-reserve-what-could-go-wrong-with-that Thanks Mark
• Money and Banking on the-treasurys-missed-opportunity Thanks Mark
• FRBSF on new-evidence-for-a-lower-new-normal-in-interest-rates Thanks Mark
• James Hamilton on fed-balance-sheet-reduction-not-scaring-anyone
• IRLE on seattles-minimum-wage-experience-2015-16 Thanks Mark
• Greg Lieserson on its-no-surprise-that-the-kansas-tax-cut-experiment-failed-to-create-jobs Thanks Brad
• Newdeal democrat on this-is-a-big-deal-housing-permits-and-starts-now-a-long-leading-negative
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-may-existing-home-sales , a-few-comments-on-may-new-home-sales
• Nick Bunker on value-added/is-the-fed-being-misguided-by-the-phillips-curve Thanks Brad
• Matthew Yglesias on republicans-are-in-trouble
• Noah Smith on noah-smackdown-illegal-immigration-edition , the-wrong-kind-of-entrepreneurs-flourish-in-america
• Tim Duy on feds-labor-market-forecasts-dont-make-sense Thanks Mark
• Micro-economic insights on health-insurance-competition-effects-premiums-hospital-rates-welfare Thanks Mark
• Chris Edelson on what-happens-if-trumps-white-house-invokes-executive-privilege
• Sarah Kilff on senate-plan-better-care-reconciliation-act
• Ezra Klein on senate-gop-health-bill-poor-pay-more
• David Frum on the-lasting-damage-of-trumps-tapes-bluff

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on the-end-of-the-cosy-game-of-politics , selecting-for-corbynism
• Stephen Grenville on greek-debt-kicked-down-road-yet-again

Asia

• Roger Shanahan on us-making-policy-on-the-run-on-syria
• Greg Earl on does-abe-want-fast-track-constitutional-reform
• Mark Valencia on us-china-sea-incidents-are-likely-new-normal
• Michael Barr on singapore-very-informative-family-feud
• Anthony Bubalo on /saudi-succession-shuffle
• Aaron L Connelly on trump-and-southeast-asia-going-through-motions

Wonk

• Mainly Macro on raising-inflation-target , austerity-will-only-end-when-our-leaders-start-being-honest
• Tim Harford on the-age-of-the-microsoft-and-amazon-economy
• David Glasner on hayek-and-rational-expectations
• long and variable on there-is-a-capitalist-logic-to-requisitioning-empty-property-near-a-disaster , disaster-economics
• Promarket on blockchain-going-revolutionize-central-banking-monetary-policy Thanks Mark
• Guillame Calafat and Eric Monnett on The-Return-of-Economic-History Thanks Brad
• Timothy Taylor on unions-in-decline-some-international , the-story-of-robert-keayne-Protocapitalist
• stumbling and mumbling on free-markets-need-equality , the-lack-of-demand-for-equality
• Eric Lonergan on secular-stability
• Noah Smith on capitalism-can-thrive-without-cooking-the-planet
• A fine Theorem on the-development-effects-of-the-extractive-colonial-economy Thanks Mark

General

• Brian Resnick on alex-jones-megyn-kelly-lies-nbc-psychology-illusory-truth
• Cassandra's Legacy on the-fall-of-western-empire-collapse-is-not-a-bug-It-is-a-feature
• Shaping Tomorrow on can repeating false information help people remember true information
• Frances Woolley on how-to-value-aboriginal-language-television-programming
• Barkely rosser on should-cultural-appropriation-by-elvis-be-condemned?
• Louise Pryke on friday-essay-the-legend-of-ishtar-first-goddess-of-love-and-war
• Understanding Society on explanation-and-critical-realism Thanks Mark
• Benjamin Isakhan and Jose Zaradona on destroying-mosuls-great-mosque-islamic-states-symbolic-war-to-the-end
• Stephan Lewardoswky on repeat-or-not-repeat-myth-during-debunking

Climate

• David Appell on abdussamatov-solar-irradiance
• and Then There's Physics on what-does-the-vostok-ice-core-tell-us
• Arctic sea ice on will-petermann-calve-another-one-this-summer
• Variable Variability on pause-hiatus-recent-warming-explosion
• hotwhopper on no-hiatus-or-vacation-from-denial
• Cassandra's Legacy on climate-change-how-desperate-can-you-be

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• dont-say-improper-prior-say-non-generative-model
• breaking-data-little-pieces-putting-back-together
• not-everyones-aware-falsificationist-bayes
• peptidegate-proposed-new-slogan-ppnas
• developers-use-spaces-make-money-use-tabs
• incentives-matter-congress-wall-street-edition
• Junkcharts on some-like-it-packed-some-like-it-piled-and-some-like-it-wrapped , how-to-read-survey-results-chocolate-milk-edition , even-more-incompetence-in-reporting-survey-results-washington-post-on-the-hotseat
• John Cook on fractional-parts-invariant-measures-and-simulation
• Statschat on whats-brown-and-sticky
• John Cook on extreme-beta-distributions , polynomials-evaluated-at-integers

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• Econometric Sense on instrumental-variables-vs-intent-to-treat

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• wise-and-foolish-finance
• the-past-and-future-of-money
• some-very-old-truths-in-economics
• Tim Harford on what-are-the-best-books-about-the-history-of-technology
• Corey Robin on on-china-mievilles-october

Vox Wonk

• commercial-value-news-internet-era
• border-adjustment-tax
• public-attitudes-immigration-salience-matters
• intergenerational-mobility-and-preferences-redistribution
• turning-germany-s-bad-trade-surplus-good-experience-all
• eu-macroeconomic-imbalance-procedure-some-impact-and-no-sanction
• price-manipulation-bitcoin-ecosystem
• why-you-should-never-use-hodrick-prescott-filter
• shedding-night-time-light-local-resource-curse
• cyber-attacks-economic-policy-challenge

Polling update

The inimitable Kevin Bonham has his usual excellent analysis of the latest polls for the Federal parties.
It seems to me voters have made up their mind. I tend to agree with Kevin that this Government certainly has the smell of the ALP Government going into the 1996 election. no matter what it tries nothing seems to increase its vote. We have to remember that the Government in essence has always been behind in the polls since the last election.This is  unheard of.

Me thinks plenty of leadership speculation to come and of course with Tony Abbott making comments which the press play up then the disunity tag is easily applied to the Liberals.

I really do not think even the Liberals are so stupid as to make Abbott leader again. Unlike Rudd he has never been liked the the electorate and to be blunt he is still an embarrassment and a bore when he is interviewed ( 2GB in Sydanee do it twice a week).

I am hoping they make Peter Dutton leader and he thus loses his seat at the next election when he is shown completely out of his depth. Andrew Elder will be go apoplectic

Disaster economics

Following on from Yesterdays article by Simon Wren-Lewis.

Today I have another highly interesting article by a clever pom namely Tony Yates  of  Long and Variable fame.
It is all about Disaster economics.

Fascinating as Mr Spock used to say.

Central Banks should increase their inflation targets

Simon Wren-Lewis has a very good article essentially on this area.He makes a lot of very good points

Enjoy.

The Manus settlement

The Government;s noses have been getting longer and longer on this.
See:

• Sangeetha Pillai
• Richard Ackland

Isn't funny how the settlement means we do NOT get to hear about what occurred at Manus. It isn't the first time This has occurred!

Around the Traps 16/6/17

It is time for Around the Traps again

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• David Blowers on the-finkel-review-finally-a-sensible-and-solid-footing-for-the-electricity-sector
• Hugh Saddler et al on energy-solutions-but-weak-on-climate-experts-react-to-the-finkel-review
• The Kouk on the-rba-is-like-a-rabbit-in-headlights , aussie-debt-is-about-to-top-half-a-trillion
• Graham Readfearn on andrew-bolt-brings-readers-news-from-climate-denialist-echo-chamber-three-years-late
• Greg Jericho on recipe-to-avoid-recession-has-also-kept-jobs-and-wages-growth-at-bay , labor-is-right-to-reject-the-medicare-levy-hike-but-they-havent-taken-the-next-step, wheeler-the-bnz-and-joyce , the-oecd-survey-process
• Croaking Cassandra on a-bnz-economist-and-the-powers-that-be , market-rents , a-true-believer-from-the-oecd
• David Ben-Tovin on some-private-hospitals-are-safer-than-others-but-we-dont-know-which
• Kevin Davis on a-better-alternative-to-levying-the-bank-tax
• Michael Walker on three-strategies-unions-are-considering-for-their-survival
• David Walker on a-50-per-cent-top-rate-makes-sense
• Julie Walker on cpa-in-crisis-why-more-associations-will-have-to-disclose-ceo-pay
• Marc Scott on ten-networks-problems-are-history-repeating
• Croaking Cassandra on the-wheeler-letter
• Peter Wells on ten-network-has-a-hard-road-back-to-viability
• Sangeetha Pillai on offshore-detention-what-landmark-settlement-fails-resolve , minister-to-get-unprecedented-power-if-australias-new-citizenship-bill-is-passed
• Khanh Hong on proposed-citizenship-test-would-forgo-fair-go-all
• Nick Gruen on australia-new-zealand-the-oecd-and-the-better-life-index
• Uri Gal on the-new-data-retention-law-seriously-invades-our-privacy-and-its-time-we-took-action
• John Quiggin on finkel
• Mark the Graph on jobs-data

Northern America

• Kruggers on they-dont-need-no-information , their-own-private-pyongyang
• James Hamilton on treasury-debt-held-by-the-public , fed-balance-sheet-reduction-not-scaring-anyone
• Henry Aaron on dont-be-fooled-trumps-budget-proposal-is-very-much-undead Thanks Mark
• Timothy Taylor on facing-costs-of-paid-parental-leave , competition-issues-in-seed-and-agricultural-chemicals
• Barry Eichengreen on can-US states-right-trump-wrongs Thanks Brad
• Jessica Pressler on gary-cohn-working-for-donald-trump Thanks Brad
• Larry Summers on the-problem-with-privatization Thanks Mark
• Narayana Kocherlakota on the-fed-s-unspoken-mandate Thanks Mark
• Stats chat on appropriate-subdivisions
• Calculated Risk on key-measures-show-inflation-mostly-below-2%-in-May 
• Emma Connors on trump-domestic-standing-and-us-foreign-policy
• Katherine Kasteel and Michelle Cheng on refugees-may-be-good-for-the-economy
• Clark D Cunningham on did-sessions-and-trump-conspire-to-obstruct-justice
• Annie Lowrey on the-controversy-over-inflation Thanks Mark
• Davis Beckworth on musings-on-junes-fomc-meeting
• Sarah Kliff on obamacare-lies-obstruction
• Barkely Rosser on when-somebody-called-mad-dog-is-only-adult-in-the-room
• Pro-Market on study-politicians-vote-will-constituents-35-percent-time

Europe

• Simon Heffer on uk-turn-inward-after-preposterous-election
• Mainly Macro on ge2017-and-media , conservative-zugzwang
• Coppolla comment on the-newly-dreadful-state-of-union
• stumbling and mumbling on the-changing-class-divide , political-pundits-biases
• The Piping Shrike on the-confusions-of-anti-politics-uk-edition-an-update

Asia

• Robert E Kelly on can-south-korea-s-new-president-finally-tackle-corruption
• Robert Whitol on beware-infrastructure-debt-trap

Wonk

• David Glasner on hayek-and-temporary-equilibrium
• Noah Opinion on is-economics-science
• Kruggers on macroeconomics-the-simple-and-the-fancy
• American Economic Association on resource-curse-in-action Thanks Mark
• Tim Johnson on egyptian-and-mesopotamian-approaches-in-action Thanks Mark
• Stephen Grenville on banks-are-still-too-big-fail
• Nina Shapiro on the-business-of-government Thanks Brad
• Joseph Gagnon on mobile-phones-and-monetary-policy Thanks Mark
• Eric Lonergan on distinction-work-leisure
• long and variable on brief-history-of-time-spent-inflation-targeting
• Kevin Bonham on the-uk-and-australian-elections-werent-similar
• John Quiggin on oecd-vs-globalisation
• Timothy Taylor on an-update-on-foreign-direct-investment

General

• Julia Kindt on guide-to-the-classics-thucydidess-history-of-the-peloponnesian-war
• Colin Yeo on will-the-superhero-films-ever-end-the-business-of-blockbuster-movie-franchises
• Joseph Dowing on grenfell-tower-fire-tragedy-reveals-ugly-flaws-of-regeneration-agenda
• Feng Fu on grenfell-tower-disaster-how-did-the-fire-spread-so-quickly
• Michael Hughes on what-went-wrong-with-the-f-35-lockheed-martins-joint-strike-fighter
• Understanding society on organizational-learning Thanks Mark
• Emily Bell on journalism-in-the-age-of-trump-and-the-real-time-social-web
• Doverbeach on feser-on-stroud-on-the-humean-ghost

Climate

• David Appell on uss-progress-towards-meeting-its-paris
• Ben Henley on the-three-minute-story-of-800-000-years-of-climate-change-with-a-sting-in-the-tail
• Arctic sea ice on melting-momentum-may-2017
• Moyhu on integrating-temperature-on-sparse-sugrid , giss-may-unchanged-from-april-second-highest-May-on-record
• Silvia Frisia on volcanoes-under-the-ice-melting-antarctic-ice-could-fight-climate-change
• hotwhopper on second-hottest-may-on-record
• Peter Sinclair on ilulissat-is-glacier-ground-zero

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• im-not-participating-transparent-psi-project
• criminology-corner-type-m-error-might-explain-weisburds-paradox
• ride-crooked-a-mile
• pizzagate-gets-even-ridiculous-either-not-read-previous-pizza-buffet-study-not-consider-part-literature-later-study-found
• whered-2500-come-from
• Eric Lonergan on big-data-worse-sample-none
• Kaiser Fung on why-tesla-owners-pay-more-for-insurance , data-bite-back-a-harvard-lesson

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle (quirky +book reviews)

• Cassandra's Legacy on wind-power-the-true-story

Vox wonk

• energy-subsidy-reform-difficult-yet-progressing
• tightening-stealth
• containers-and-globalisation
• world-bank-era-trump
• corporate-balance-sheets-emerging-markets-comparison-global-crisis-and-asian-financial-crises
• rainfall-and-human-settlement-tropical-africa-and-asia
• services-growth-escalator-low-income-countries
• japans-entry-world-markets-during-first-age-globalisation
• trends-artificial-intelligence-technology-invention
• wwii-and-industrialisation-american-south
• central-bank-communication-strategies

The hidden cost of Privatisation

That is the title of a very interesting paper by Nina Shapiro.  ( Thanks Brad De Long)
In Australia we have found out to our great cost the electricity market simply does not work and indeed should have never been privatised. I admit to having supported the privatisation in the first place. I was wrong!

Trump aint going to change

It is chaos in the White house and this will not change.
Let mew take two articles from Friday's Around the Traps. Sorry Bruce's is from last weeks.
Bruce Bartlett  enlarges on what goes on. It reinforces what I have read from various peple on what goes on both from 'left ' and 'right'.

Ezra Klein also write on Trump and his interaction with staff.  Also read another article of his where he supports Mathews Yglesias's assertion that Trump is a bullsh-tter not a liar. ( You really need to read it. also remember Trump is a real estate developer.
Trump is an old man. He won't change. He is too steeped in his ways. No-one  but no-one is going to tell him of his many limitations.

The complete lack of self awareness leads him to making numerous embarrassing statements and really stupid tweets when he should be asleep! Only sleeping fours must be having an effect as well.

All in all Trump is not going to change. I have said previously I do not believe Trump ever expected to win the Presidency. We can see that now. He has made no effort to inquire about how Government works. He still has little idea of how important people are in the middle areas of government.

When he talks about legislation he is always wrong about it. Whether this comes back to bite him as those who supported realise they have been dudded we shall see.

However what we shall see is a Chaoshouse in total confusion where staff leak policies because their President  doesn't understand the implications.

Comedians are in heaven.

The Finkel Report

The Finkel Report was released on Friday.

Given it does NOT recommend a price on carbon which therefore means those things  boosting emissions are guilty of externalities which can be only recovered by such a price I was disappointed.
However it could well be the only way forward so in that way I support it.
One problem is that we would still be short of out Paris obligations however the report's recommendations  can be easily accommodated to have an emissions intensity scheme, emissions trading scheme or a carbon tax being part of it.

If the Liberals cannot implement this then they no longer should be in Government!


Update:

It is clear there are some Government MPS who clearly do not believe in climate change and therefore do not care how much emissions electricity powered by coal spews out. No-one is saying coal will be immediately curtailed certainly not Finkel. This straw man argument is made for political purposes. None of the MPs seem to understand NEW coal powered electricity plants will be as expensive if not more expensive than other forms of generation!


Here is John Quiggin

The UK Election Result

It seems to me most people have missed the obvious explanation for the result.
Most poms thought May's reason for going so early was very specious. They wanted to give her a black eye if not get rid of her.
They knew voting for the Labor party would do that but that the Labor party had no chance of winning so Corbyn could never ever be PM.

What they will get is at some stage a new PM and when the next election comes around a swing against the Labor party as it is now to close in votes to be a protest vote.

Poms are not as stupid as Yanks. Corbyn in his own way is as unfit for office as Trump is. Well yes he is more honest but anyone is. His policies are just as poor.

The sooner the British Labor party realise they did not get close to winning the election and they never will with Corbyn as Leader the better.

Around the Traps 9/6/17

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Tooran Alizadeh on the-nbn-how-a-national-infrastructure-dream-fell-short
• Keiran Hardy on why-is-it-so-difficult-to-prosecute-returning-fighters
• Croaking Cassandra on the-rennie-review ,rebalancing-not-so-much,  unaffordable-housing-markets-and-the-next-generation, roger-douglas-the-economy-and-an-option-for-reform, considerable-public-interest , bank-capital-some-thoughts , an-astonishing-illustration-of-someone-unfit-for-office
• Ross Gittins on radical-policy-change-may-be-needed-to-fix-wages , turnbull-must-act-on-climate-if-hes-not-to-be-a -Trumpette
• David Rowe on anti-siphoning-changes-a-blow-to-sports-fans-who-want-to-watch-on-free-to-air-tv
• Greg Jericho on if-you-want-to-get-technical-recession-records-are-nothing-to-brag-about
• Sam Roggeveen on four-corners-investigation-puts-spotlight-party-decline
• James Curran on when-will-australia-acknowledge-changed-america
• Saul Eslake on therell-be-no-records-set-this-week-by-australian-economic-growth-figures
• Ricardo Ambivalence on rba-goes-the-full-pom-pom
• Samantha Hepburn on adani-gives-itself-the-green-light-but-that-doesnt-change-the-economics-of-coal
• The Kouk on the-end-is-nearly-nigh-d-b-business-expectations, don-t-celebrate-scomo-job-ad-stats-mask-ugly-truth-about-the-labour-market
• Adrian Cherney on australian-authorities-are-doing-all-they-can-to-combat-terrorism
• Frank Jotszo on explainer-what-is-a-low-emissions-target-and-how-would-it-work
• Mark the Graph on household-expenditure , gdp

Northern America

• progrowth liberal on mankiw-v-mankiw-on-1981-tax-cut
• John Holbo on an-hypothesis-about-2018-collapse-and-replace
• Larry Summers on business-needs-to-show-there-is-more-to-the-us-than-donald-trump Thanks Mark
• Nathaniel Rakich on democrats-are-overperforming-in-special-elections-almost-everywhere
• Zach Beachamp on trump-terrorism-manchester-islam
• Susan Glasser on trump-nato-speech-national-security-team Thanks Brad
• Brad De Long on der-spiegel-donald-trumps-triump-of-the-stupidity , why-the-fed-should-rethink-its-2year-no-lookback-inflation-target
• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on making-ignorance-great-again, wrecking-the-ship-of-state
• Tim Duy on anxious-about-the-economy Thanks Mark
• Aaron Klein on a-primer-on-dodd-franks-orderly-liquidation-authority Thanks Mark
• Timothy Taylor on what-is-killing-us-coal , the-slow-motion-crisis-in-government , corporate-benefits-from-white-house
• Menzie Chinn on travel-implications-of-the-presidents-muslim-travel-ban , employment-situation-maybe-a-little-softer-than-i-thought
• Ezra Klein on trump-government-alienation
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-fed-just-sort-of-confident-about-full-employment
• FRB Richmond on the missing boomerang buyers Thanks Mark
• Norman Bell on comey-testimony-just-beginning
• James Boyce on america-last Thanks Mark
• Narayana Kocherlakota on the-fed-needs-a-better-inflation-target Thanks Mark
• Ezra Klein on donald-trumps-comey-response-twitter
• Benjamin Wallace-Wells on the-white-house-cant-decide-how-to-attack-james-comey

Europe

• Mainly Macro on what-does-labours-poll-surge-tell-us
• stumbling and mumbling on under-estimating-corbyn , labour-and-its-left
• Steve Hewitt on eight-minutes-on-london-bridge-years-of-training-led-to-lightning-police-response
• Daniel Woker on angela-merkel-independent-not-alone
• Variable Variability on Comrade-Trend-UK-general-election-polling
• Seamus Coffey on june-2017-fiscal-assessment-report

Asia

• Bob Bowker on where-does-qatar-go-here-moscow
• Barkely Rosser on trump-blows-up-gulf-cooperation-council
• Merriden Verrell on does-china-rise-threaten-rules-based-order
• Anas Iqtait on behind-qatar-crisis-politics-energy-and-al-jazeera
• Marie-alice McLean-Dreyfus on taiwan-there-political-generation-gap

Wonk

• Mainly Macro on could-austeritys-impact-be-persistent , why-has-us-resisted-trump-but-uk-acquiesced-to-Brexit
• Long and Variable on there-is-a-magic-money-tree
• David Glasner on roy-radner-and-the-equilibrium-of-plans-prices-and-price-expectations
• Noahopinion on the-shouting-class , summing-up-my-thoughts-on-macroeconomics
• Promarket on enhancing-competition-role-governance-increasing-exposure-competition Thanks Mark
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on labors-declining-share-a-primer Thanks Mark
• Henry Farrell on the-strange-death-of-anglo-american-liberalism
• Brad De Long on on-the-negative-information-revealed-by-marvin-goodfriends-i-dont-teach-is-lm
• Stephen Grenville on no-consensus-washington-consensus 
• All about finance on what-do-we-know-about-link-between-financial-inclusion-and-inclusive-growth Thanks Mark
• progrowth liberal on reverse-yankee-bonds-and-dornbusch-overshooting
• John Quiggin on the-last-gasp-of-a-failed-model
• Timothy Taylor on when-trotsky-temporarily-embraced-prices-and-markets , environmental-protection-and-africas-cities
• Microeconomic Insights on egalitarian-profession-pharmacy-evolution-family-friendly-occupation Thanks Mark
• Salvatore Morelli on is-growing-inequality-hurting-our-economies Thanks Mark
• long and variable on more-on-bitcoin-and-the-conditions-for-a-takeover-of-fiat-money
• Menzie Chinn on the-transmission-of-macroprudential-and-monetary-policies-across-borders

General

• Tim Harford on trapsfordinosaurs
• Ken Chitwood on what-is-the-shia-sunni-divide

Climate

• Peter Dorman on the-cost-of-climate-change-its-not-about-psychology 
• Sandichman on  it-depends-on-how-we-they-value-time
• David Appell on uss-progress-towards-meeting-its-paris-commitment
• hotwhopper on trending-troposphere-temperatures-to-May-2017
• Arctic sea ice on piomas-june-2017
• and Then There Physics on trump-and-paris
• Andrew King on winter-warmth-is-in-the-forecast-but-dont-celebrate-yet
• Christine Gallagher on trump-has-compromised-climate-security-strategies
• Moyhu on may-global-temperature-unchanged-from-april

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• -quotes-william-james-couldve-come-bill-james
• collectioncollection-quotes-william-james-couldve-come-robert-benchley-s-j-perelman-dorothy-parker
• advice-psychology-researchers-changed-since-2013
• publicity-factory-even-serious-research-gets-exaggerated-process-scientific-publication-media-exposure
• no-conf-intervals-no-problem-if-got-replication
• bombshell-statistical-evidence-research-misconduct
• lance-armstrong-principle
• uk-election-summary
• financial anomalies are contingent on being unknown
• Thomas Lumley on  briefly-211
• Junkcharts on the-art-of-contaminating-data , why-tesla-owners-pay-more-for-insurance , data-bite-back-a-harvard-lesson
• Rick Wicklin on runs-in-coin-tosses-patterns-in-random-seating
• John Cook on gaussian-correlation-inequality
• Tim Harford on where-the-truth-really-lies-with-statistics
• Kaiser Fung on why-tesla-owners-pay-more-for-insurance , data-bite-back-a-harvard-lesson
• forbetterscience on carlisles-statistics-bombshell-names-and-shames-rigged-clinical-trials Thanks Jason Soon (see Andrew's 'bombshell' article
• nicebread on correcting-bias-in-meta-analyses-what-not-to-do-meta-showdown-part-1
• Pierre Jacob on likelihood-calculation-for-the-g-and-k-distribution

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• june-reading-list
• marc-bellamare-on-how-to-publish-in-academic-journals
• Eran Raviv on computer-age-statistical-inference-now-free
• Marc Bellamare on lagged explanatory variables
• No Hesitations on structural-change-and-big-data 

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• bringing-back-welfare-economics
• surviving-post-truth
• Tim Harford on undercover-monday-3

Vox Wonk

• protecting-whistle-blowers
• swiss-phillips-curve-1916-2015
• new-ebook-economics-and-policy-age-trump
• simulating-impact-state-contingent-debt-instruments-sovereign-finances-excel-toolkit
• what-history-tells-us-about-state-contingent-debt-instruments
• state-contingent-debt-instruments-sovereigns
• japanese-frugality-versus-italian-profligacy
• trump-administrations-misguided-focus-trade-barriers
• manifesto-economic-research-europe
• predicting-fed-forecasts
• countering-mining-curse
• globalisation-and-executive-compensation
• child-related-transfers-labour-supply-and-welfare
• lifecycle-research-citations
• health-reform-age-in-the-age-of-trump