Trump is a disaster. We knew this before we know it now

We knew when Trump was a candidate he was a lying ignorant braggart. Take ISIS. It was quite clear he did not have a clue about them and did not know how to overcome them despite telling everyone he had a plan which would do it.

He is now President so we can figure what he will be like. The current immigration/refugee farce is typical about how he will be.

He acted on prejudice and without any evidence.( see yesterday's article) He took advice from two people who are complete looney tunes. He then didn't think through the consequences of what would occur.

We had the absurdity people who had greencards or were dual citizens were not allowed back into the USA. People in both categories who were in the USA could not leave the USA for work purposes.

Airports were in chaos as people did not know exactly how to interpret  Trump's policy.

No wonder markets have sold off.

We know now for sure Trump cannot admit to mistakes even HUGE ones. People who cannot admit to mistakes never learn from them.

His policy had the exact opposite intent of what he wanted. This policy was fantastic propaganda value for ISIS in terms of recruitment. If he had talked to experts he would have been told this.


He does not talk to experts , he talks to policy flakes who believe, like himself, in fake news.
He does not bother to find out the legality of any action he wants.
He will argue vigorously that black is white.

See Simon Wren-Lewis

Mark Thoma writes about some implication of this. Markets will be very wary of Trump picks for the Fed. Particularly if his team is more heavily critical of Yellen than the Reagan team was of Volker

We can now say with complete confidence Trump will be the disaster a lot of people thought.

Think about this. Trump does not start from a position of great political strength like Reagan for example did. He starts from a position of great political weakness than no-one on his team understands.

Be afraid, be very afraid. We had something similar in Australia, Tony Abbott became PM here despite all and sundry knowing he would be a disaster. He indeed was a disaster. It is a moot argument to argue whom is the worst PM  Bruce or Abbott.

Trump is a disaster and will continue to be a disaster!

Postscript:
I have been rightly upbraided for not commenting on the quality or lack of it of his advisors. The public service is a vastly different animal to the private sector.
Any President needs a cabinet of quality people. for the main Trump does not have this. His advisors outside of Cabinet  are either looney tunes or of poor intellectual background.  Where are the neo-liberals for example?

Fake News

A wonderful example of fake news yesterday and the premier place of fake news in Australia Catallaxy.
Only at Catallaxy could you get an article entitled more-fake-news. which is in fact fake news
The author was trying to say the chart originally done by people at the Cato institute and as yet no-one but no-one has disputed its accuracy.

It is about how many US citizens have been killed by people of certain countries in the USA.

Now I do not believe anyone is so stupid to think :

• Lockerbie (The Bombing of Pan Am Flight 103)
• Mogadishu (Black Hawk Down)
• Maersk Alabama (Captain Philips)
• Benghazi (13 Hours)
• Iran Hostage Crisis (Argo)

are in the USA.

The author is thus deliberately lying. We have further evidence of this. M0nty points in the comments his main claim is patently wrong yet no  retraction from the author.

It is disgraceful.

Oh and this absolute mess for a policy has absolutely no evidence about it only bigotry.

Andrew Bolt is illiterate and dangerous

Andrew Bolt who has been caught out many a time spreading fake news is at it again.He claims Trump has not 'banned' anyone from entering the USA.

Hmm..Dictionary defines banned thus :

1.

a. To prohibit (an action) or forbid the use of (something), especially by official decree: banned smoking intheaters; banned pesticides in parks. See Synonyms at forbid.

b. To refuse to allow (someone) to do something, go somewhere, or be a participant; exclude: a coach whowas banned from the sidelines for two games; a gambler who was banned from the club.

2. South African Under the former system of apartheid, to deprive (a person suspected of illegal activity) of the rightof free movement and association with others.

3. Archaic To curse.

n.

1. An excommunication or condemnation by church officials.

2. A prohibition imposed by law or official decree.

3. Censure, condemnation, or disapproval expressed especially by public opinion.

4. A summons to arms in feudal times.

Now when Trump does not allow certain people to enter the USA are they banned or not?

Of course they are. Even Trump's Press secretary says they are banned.

Bolt is lying and of course goebelsisng to the highest degree.

It is entirely ironic that Bolt likes to accuse a lot of his critics of lying all the time yet that is what he does if he are to take him at his own word. A court found out his is lazy as all get up about finding out the facts.

In this instance he is denying that the ban affects muslims. Talk to Trump he thinks that is who it affects!!!

I should add ISIS would be proud Bolt is helping them out so well in their recruitment in Australia.

Impeach Trump impeach him now

Way back when Obama had to get special permission from Congress to receive the money that went with the absurd nobel prize he was given.

Fast forward to today. Trump simply treats congress with utter contempt on the same topic. He has made no action what so ever to overcome this . He has decided against a blind trust which most Presidents in the past have used.He clearly has no understanding of conflict of interest means

It is therefore Congresses constitutional duty to impeach Trump until he conforms with the US constitution.

Around the Traps 27/1/17

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Greg Austin on could-russian-hacking-pose-a-threat-to-australian-democracy
• Bob Stewart on sport-is-more-than-just-a-fringe-player-in-australias-economy
• Michael Hogan on new-nsw-premier-will-have-her-hands-full-with-issues-that-took-the-shine-off-baird 
• The Kouk on the-top-10-highest-taxing-governments-turnbull-makes-it , australia-economy-reserve-bank-interest-rates-inflation-unemployment , australia-s-housing-affordability-is-much-more-complex-than-the-headlines
• Hans Hendrischke on governments-new-critical-infrastructure-list-raises-more-questions-than-it-answers-for-investors
• Greg Jericho on turnbull-and-the-tpp-desperately-pressing-ahead-despite-negligible-benefits , record-low-inflation-growth-reflects-the-bizarre-times-we-live-in
• Matt Fisher on centrelink-debt-debacle-is-bad-policy-for-mental-health
• various on changing-climate-has-stalled-australian-wheat-yields-study
• Frank Bongiorno on the-australian-history-boom-has-busted-but-theres-hope-it-may-boom-again
• Ross Gittins on heartless-government-sools-computer-onto-needy-citizens
• John Quiggin on the-tpp-fiasco
• Blake Singley on parrot-pie-and-possum-curry-how-colonial-australians-embraced-native-food
• Croaking Cassandra on prices-differentiated-by-location

Northern America

• Barbara Slavin on obama-optimism-trumpian-gloom
• Euan Graham on trumps-cia-speech-reveals-challenge-americas-deep-state
• David Beckworth on note-to-president-trump-its-policy-its-policy-divergence-not-china-driving-the-dollar
• Tony Yates on open-letter-to-neel-kashkari
• Mathew Hahn on clash-of-titans-summers-vs-glaeser-on-infrastructure Thanks Mark
• David Warsh on where are we now? Thanks Mark
• Harry Enten on 3-days-into-trumps-presidency-45-percent-of-americans-disapprove-of-his-performance
• Progrowth liberal on paul-ryans-two-faced-comments-on-Auerbach's-tax
• Noah Smith on why-the-u-s-has-a-monopoly-on-jobless-recoveries , behavioral-economics-isn-t-dead-yet
• St Louis Fed on elections-effect-expected-inflationThanks Mark 
• John Conlon and Basit Zafar on measuring-americans-expectations-following-the-2016-election
• Nicholas Bagley on patching-obamacare-at-the-state-level Thanks Brad
• Ryan Cooper on how-american-health-care-kills-people Thanks Brad
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-december-existing-home-sales , a-few-comments-on-december-new-home-sales
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-quantifying-the-changing-rate-forecast
• Mark Thoma on trumps-alternative-facts-about-the-economy
• Kevin Drum on what-does-it-take-finally-call-lie-lie-we-have-answer Thanks Brad
• Brad De Long on trade-deals-nafta-wto-china-job-loss-trump 
• Menzie Chinn on more-on-the-trade-deficit-and-economic-growth . making-america-growth-great-by-spaceology
• Maggie Koerth-Baker on trump-finds-the-weak-spot-in-obamas-protections-for-scientists
• Kruggers on reagan-trump-and-manufacturing , border-tax-two-step-wonkish
• Timothy Taylor on changes-in-enrollment-and-costs-Affordable-care-and-patient-protection-act
• Jared Bernstein on the-dollar-is-one-of-the-most-exciting-economic-variables-to-be-watching-these-days-really
• Tim Duy on beware-of-hard-money-advocates-filling-fed-positions Thanks Mark
• Sandwichman on why-is-donald-trump-covering-up-alien-abduction
• Dani Rodrik on what-did-nafta-really-do Thanks Mark
• Sam Wang on can-the-speech-rights-of-government-employees-be-restricted
• Brad Setser on the-price-of-u-s-imports-from-china-keeps-falling Thanks Mark
• Justin Wolfers on donald-trump-offshoring-factory Thanks Mark
• 538 on trumpbeat-there-is-no-pivot

Europe

• Tony Yates on what-did-tory-remainers-get-for-giving-into-the-hard-brexiters
• Edgar Morgenroth on more-on-brexit
• Chris Dillow on brexit-the-rights-consistent-error
• Robert Waldmann on legible-version-of-how-have-phillips-curves-shifted-in-the-15-countries-which-were-in-the-european-union-in-1997
• Simon Wren-Lewis on the-uks-1976-imf-crisis-in-light-of-modern-theory

Asia

• Rebecca Barlow on women-and-iran-s-elections-not-atmosphere-change 
• Brad Setser on chicken-feet-and-china-back-to-the-future Thanks Mark

Wonk

• Chris Dillow on shareholder-value-innovation , in-praise-of-dullness
• Simon Wren-Lewis on attacking-economics-is-diversionary-tactic , did-centrism-beget-populism
• Nick Rowe on humes-sailing-ships-correcting-samuelsons-icebergs
• Tony Yates on submitting-to-demonetization-or-not
• David Glasner on further-thoughts-on-bitcoins-fiat-moneys-and-network-effects
• Dani Rodrik on is-global-equality-the-enemy-of-national-equality , new-results-on-structural-change-during-the-recent-growth-boom-in-developing-countries Thanks Mark
• Stephen Grenville on ahead-global-economy
• Yuliya Baranova , Carsten Jung and Jospeh Noss on the-tip-of-the-iceberg-the-implications-of-climate-change-on-financial-markets
• Brad De Long on has-protectionism-ever-worked
• Timothy Taylor on trade-engine-or-handmaiden-of-growth
• Vincent Gelesso on on-sugary-drinks-taxes-and-demand-curves Thanks Mark
• Dietrich Vollrath on Idea-TFP Thanks Mark
• Timothy Taylor on the-rise-in-global-per-capita-gdp
• microeconomic insights on currency-devaluations-losing-economic-punch Thanks Mark
• Ian Webb etal on how-should-regulators-deal-with-uncertainty-insights-from-the-precautionary-principle Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on why-latin-america-and-africa-struggle-to-grow
• Roger Farmer on keynesian-economics-without-the-consumption-function

General

• Charles Stross on on-why-scifi-matters-more-when-the-future-looks-so-dangerous
• Frances Woolley on how-to-write-an-email-that-will-get-you-what-you-want
• Tim Harford on why-economists-should-be-more-like-plumbers 

Climate

• Hotwhopper on sea-level-rise-commitment-could-already-be-very-high
• Climate code red on antarctic-tipping-points-for-multi-metre-sea-level-rise
• and Then There's Physics on the-warmest-year-again , clutching-at-straws-gwpf-style , guest-post-do-propagation-of-error-calculations-invalidate-climate-model-projections
• Real Climate on there-was-no-pause 
• Lynette Molyneaux on is-clean-coal-power-the-answer-to-australias-emissions-targets
• Tamino on u-s-temperature-anthony-watts-plays-hide-the-incline .big-lies-about-climate-change
• Jeff Masters on will-global-warming-make-hurricane-forecasting-more-difficult
• John Abraham on we-may-be-closer-to-dangerous-climate-thresholds
• Moyhu on global-anomaly-spatial-sampling-error

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• quantifying uncertainty in identification assumptions
• george-orwell-alternative-facts
• if-i-had-a-long-enough-blog-delay-i-could-just-schedule-this-one-for-1-jan-2026
• historical critiques of psychology research methods  
• quick-statistical-comment
• political_attit_1
• statistical-heartburn-attempt-digest-four-pizza-publications-cornell-food-brand-lab
• attack-human-rights-u-s-economy-time
• absence-of-evidence-is-evidence-of-alcohol
• Kaiser Fung on good-models-bad-data-bad-analysis , counting-is-hard-especially-when-you-dont-have-theories , numbersense-and-government-accountability-in-the-new-political-reality , apparently-hollywood-does-not-recycle-action-movie-plots-the-data-said-so-so-it-must-be-right
• Peter Dizikes on algorithm-better-wisdom-crowds Thanks Mark

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• in-honour-of-peter-schmidt
• Marc Bellamare on dealing with imperfect instruments 2
• No Hesitations on bayes-stifling-creativity
• Anastasias Markitsis on multiple-regression-part-2-diagnostics

Dianne Coyle ( book reviews + quirky)

• what-is-consumption
• Doverbeach on weekend-reading

Vox Wonk

• thomas-schelling-methodological-subversive
• thomas-schelling-personal-tribute
• risk-sharing-across-us-and-eurozone
• new-ebook-long-economic-and-political-shadow-history
• how-central-bank-collateral-frameworks-distort-economy
• leaning-against-wind-re-evaluating-evidence
• electronic-money-enhancement-or-replacement
• globalisation-and-sectoral-employment-trends-germany
• assessing-threat-central-bank-independence
• evidence-which-aspects-central-bank-transparency-matter
• how-tohoku-earthquake-affected-offshoring
• self-control-and-peer-groups

January 26 should NOT be Australia Day

Australia became a nation on January 1 not January 26 so why is Australia day on January 26?

Sydney became a town then. Celebrate Sydney becoming a town by all means but not Australia becoming a country!

The TPP is dead

The TPP is dead. Trump killed it by executive order. As a typical left winger he thinks free trade is bad for the economy. He simply is very ignorant on the topic

The Australian government takes a totally opposite view on trade although to be honest they appear to be as mercantilist in how they view trade deals as Trump. That is perhaps a bit harsh as I can't see any country wanting to negotiate a trade treaty with the USA as  Trump would only sign up if the USA is a big 'winner in terms of net exports.

If one reduces trade barriers then not only will exports increase but so will imports. In terms of jobs the net gain will be negligible but national income will increase sometimes substantially.

The TPP did not have a lot of benefits to it. The Productivity Commission found few and was quite wary of it.

Greg Jericho echoes my thoughts on the TPP.

I am a great believer in multilateral trade agreements. They bring benefits of lowering trade barriers. bilateral trade agreements merely encourage trade diversion not trade creation.
It is not good the trade negotiators on the TPP were so secretive and not transparent.

On the politics Turnbull did not come across very well. Shorten had his measure all the way. Ciobo I have mentioned before. He was caught out badly lying on Q&A about Mallah.  He wants Parliament to ratify an agreement that might have more nations to be part of it! He clearly does not understand how parliament works!

THIS is pertinent

The Tip of the Iceberg: The Implications of Climate Change on Financial Markets

A fascinating paper done by Bank of England staff on the implications for financial markets of climate change.

It is well worth a read.
Thanks to the Ever reading Mark Thoma for pointing it out for everyone

There was no pause

One of the most boring things a climate denialist will say is that there was a pause in world temperatures. Not so.

See:

• TAMINO 
• REAL CLIMATE

Let us be clear. A person who believes in a pause is either completely deluded and this an imbecile or lying their head off in other words goebbelsing

Around the Traps 20/1/17

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie.Oy,Oy,Oy

• Kevin Bonham on getup-national-and-centrelink-poll-reporting-is-a-trainwreck
• The Kouk on -a-new-record-for-government-debt , lower-smoking-rates-a-win-for-the-nanny-state
• John Quiggin on the-lnp-onp-coalition-heading-for-a-train-wreck , if-we-scrapped-the-states-increasing-canberras-clout-would-be-a-backward-step , culture-wars-and-smelters
• Antony Green on colin-barnetts-comment-on-senate-vacancies
• Greg Jericho on the-jobs-outlook-for-2017-lets-hope-its-not-a-repeat-of-last-year , housing-finance-data-heres-a-heads-up-on-where-the-market-is-heading , not-even-the-tennis-can-distract-us-from-how-badly-this-government-is-doing
• Giavanni Di Lieto on brexit-trump-and-the-tpp-mean-australia-should-pursue-more-bilateral-trade-agreements
• Ben Phillips on factcheck-what-are-the-facts-on-rising-child-care-prices
• The Piping Shrike on entitlement
• Tim Pitman on university-completion-rates-wont-be-improved-by-looking-at-isolated-causes
• Gegory Melluish on bairds-early-exit-means-nsw-loses-a-leader-whose-best-years-were-yet-to-come
• Gary Mortimer on why-australian-supermarkets-continue-to-look-to-the-uk-for-leadership

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on mr-trump-on-the-socio-economic-statistics-for-georgia-fifth-district , more-data-on-atlanta-in-georgias-horrible-fifth-congressional-district , cbo-estimates-of-repealing-the-affordable-care-act-a-k-a-obamacare , when-last-a-president-ignored-an-intelligence-briefing
• Alison Hoffman on hoffman-unhealthy-return-individual-responsibility-health-policy Thanks Mark 
• New deal democrat on barack-obama-a-noble-failure
• Timothy Taylor on some-economics-for-martin-luther-king-day , the-evolution-of-medicaid-and-health-financing-reform , what-if-trump-skeptics-like-me-turn-out-to-be-wrong
• Larry Summers on public-infrastructure-investment-in-the-national-interest Thanks Mark
• Branco Milanovic on trump-and-gorbachev Thanks Mark
• Kenneth Rogoff on trump-fiscal-deficit Thanks Mark
• Jonathan Barron on baron-geographic-boundaries-social-cost-carbon Thanks Mark 
• Marc Bellamare on no agricultural economist was hurt let alone interviewed during the making of this article Thanks Mark
• Dean Baker on the-economics-of-the-affordable-care-act Thanks Mark
• Crispin Rovere on trump-and-intelligence-community
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-looking-back-on-barack , guest-contribution-health-care-and-john-d-rockefellers-dog
• Livio De Matteo on infrastructure-overbuilds-past-and-present
• Nate Silver on can-you-trust-polling-in-the-age-of-trump
• Sam Wang on transition-obama-trump-brings-nosedive-public-approval-president
• Lael Brainard on monetary poicy in a time of uncertainty Thanks Mark
• Victor Abramowicz on trumps-confused-mercantilism 
• Calculated Risk on key-measures-show-inflation-close-to-2%-in-December , comments-on-december-housing-starts
• Kruggers on health-care-fundamentals , the-opposite-of-carnage
• Mark Thoma on frbsf-the-current-economy-and-the-outlook
• Robert Shiller on illusion-driving-asset-prices-upward Thanks Mark
• Larry Summers on economy-under-trump-plan-for-the-worst Thanks Mark
• Nick Rowe on adas-a-suggested-interpretation
• Noah Smith on the-ways-that-pop-economics-hurt-america , the-american-debt-trap
• Miles Kimball on Border adjustment vs Dollar depreciation Thanks Mark
• Copolla comment on president-trumps-triffin-problem
• Robert Frank on federal-policy-will-shift-not-all-states-will-shift-with-it Thanks Mark
• Heidi Moore on trump-wants-to-manage-the-economy-by-personally-running-every-business-he-cant Thanks Mark
• Griffin Davis on trump-administration-regulatory-reform-options Thanks Mark

Europe

• Coppolla comment on its-not-nhs-crisis-its-social-care-disaster
• Chris Dillow on on-tory-competence , on-brexit-over-optimism , on-brexit-solipsism
• Aidan Regan on celtic-phoenix-or-leprechaun-economics
• Simon Wren-Lewis on the-single-market-was-mrs-thatchers-great-achievement-for-the-UK
• Mathew Dal Santo on theresa-mays-brexit-speech-ushers-post-liberal-age
• Robert Waldmann on european-pooled-panel-phillips-curve

Asia

• Peter Layton on lets-face-it-chinas-military-now-dominates-asean
• Sam Bateman on beware-provocation-south-china-sea
• Bernt Berger on tapei-and-beijing-should-tell-us-back
• Avi Shlaim on barack-obama-netanyahu-trump-israel
• Brad Setser on chinas-wto-entry-15-years-on Thanks Mark
• Ahamd Umar on asean-countries-should-find-a-solution-to-end-the-persecution-of-rohingya

Climate

• David Appell on wacky-global-sea-ice
• Tamino on coping-with-sea-level-rise , global-temperature-the-big-3 , the-pause-that-never-happened , u-s-temperature-anthony-watts-plays-hide-the-incline
• and Then Theres Physics on guest-post-an-inconvenient-truth-exploring-the-dynamics-of-making-climate-change-public , attribution-and-all-that-2
• Arctic sea ice on global-sea-ice-records-broken-again , a-new-arctic-feedback
• realclimate on the-nasa-data-conspiracy-theory-and-the-cold-sun , 2016-temperature-records
• variable variability on cherry-picking-short-term-trends
• hotwhopper on 2016-is-hottest-year-on-record-three-in-a-row
• Critical Angle on 2016-was-the-warmest-year-ever-measured
• moyhu on giss-and-noaa-both-find-that-2016-was-the-hottest-ever , the-contrasting-directions-are-result

Wonk

• James Hamilton on measuring-the-economic-effects-of-uncertainty
• Noah Smith on the-30k-hypothesis , cracks-in-anti-behavioral-dam
• Mike Kimel on net-migration-and-economic-growth-around-the-world-1958-to-the-present
• Simon Wren-Lewis on blanchard-joins-calls-for-structural-econometric-models-to-be-brought-in-from-the-cold , fake-economics-and-media
• Chris Dillow on work-capitalism-retirement , inequality-as-feudalism , in-praise-of-tribalism
• Edwin Dolan on the-progressive-case-for-abolishing-the-corporate-income-tax-2 Thanks Mark
• Stephen Grenville on why-it-so-hard-imf-accept-criticism
• David Glasner on shilling-for-bitcoins
• Thomas Piketty on long-live-populism Thanks Mark
• Peter Whiteford on do-8-men-really-control-the-same-wealth-as-the-poorest-half-of-the-global-population
• Richard Holden on printing-more-money-isnt-the-answer-to-all-economic-ills
• Asher Schecter on revolving-doors-private-sector-quid-pro-quo-efficient-market-mechanism Thanks Mark
• Lucrezia Reichlin on populism-and-the-future-of-central-banking Thanks Mark
• Tony Yates on submitting-to-demonetization-or-not
• Beatrice Cherrier on remembering-tony-atkinson-as-the-architect-of-modern-public-economics Thanks Mark
• Roy Green and Renu Agarwal on three-theories-for-whats-causing-the-global-productivity-slowdown

General

• Sarah Robertson on whats-the-point-of-sex-its-communication-at-a-biological-level
• Jason Amatoury on health-check-is-snoring-anything-to-worry-about
• Tim Harford on undercover-friday-2-resolutions-and-recommendations , anoptimistsguideto2017
• Andrew Linden on what-we-can-all-learn-from-the-vw-emissions-saga
• David Wells on taking-terror-out-terrorism-part-1, taking-terror-out-terrorism-part-2 , taking-terror-out-terrorism-part-3
• Jiyoing Song and Isobel Crealy on why-teaching-refugee-children-so-critical
• Daniel Little on signals-intelligence-and-management-of-military-competition Thanks Mark
• Charitha Pattiaratchi on the-search-for-mh370-is-over-what-we-learnt-and-where-to-now
• Mehmet Ozalp on syria-russia-and-turkey-the-uneasy-alliance-reshaping-world-politics

Andrew Gelman (mainly Stats)

• to-know-the-past-one-must-first-know-the-future-the-relevance-of-decision-based-thinking-to-statistical-analysis
• powerposeupdate
• laurie-davies-time-series-decomposition-birthday-data
• horse-race-polls-wrong-trump-approval-rating-polls-better
• estimating trends in mortalilty
• jail-for-scientific-fraud
• looking-rigor-wrong-places
• Kaiser Fung on this-headline-writer-has-the-secret-to-everlasting-life , good-models-bad-data-bad-analysis

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• vintage-years-in-econometrics-1970s
• royal-economic-society-webcasts-on-econometrics
• quantitative-macroeconomic-modeling
• Anastasios Markitis on multiple-regression-part-1
• Marc Bellamare on dealing with imperfect instruments
• No Hesitations on impulse-response-estimation-by-smooth-local-projections
• Angelika Stefan on two-meanings-of-priors-part-ii-quantifying-uncertainty-about-model-parameters

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• war-and-inequality
• imagination-and-economics

Vox wonk

• how-status-competition-killed-german-wwii-fighter-pilots
• europe-s-rich-1300
• surprising-prevalence-surprises-export-specialisation
• services-modes-supply-new-data-source
• finance-and-growth-direction-causality
• ending-too-big-fail
• risk-surprises-and-safe-haven-currencies
• redistributive-function-eu-budget
• business-cycle-desynchronisation
• innovation-network
• risk-based-capital-requirements-and-international-trade
• how-deregulation-and-globalisation-interact-boost-economic-growth
• acquired-knowledge-managers-and-firm-performance

2016 the hottest year ever

We know know 2016 was the hottest year ever.
See:

• Hotwhopper
• Tamino
• Critical Angle
• Moyhu

16 of the 17 most hottest years have occurred since 2001!

Ego trips to the grave

There is a really interesting article  called how-status-competition-killed-german-wwii-fighter-pilots.

The authors look at German fighter pilots in WW2 and their behaviour to how former colleagues got recognition.

As Mr Spock would have said fascinating

A humble suggestion to reform Politician's entitlements

In lieu of Sussan Ley resigning ( I'm told she added a s to her name for numerology reasons) the main item has been reform of their entitlements.

I have a humble suggestion. most of the allowances can be done away with.

Let me give a few examples.

When a politician comes to Canberra on sitting days they are entitlements to an allowance to being away from home. So let us say it is $200 a night. Thus this is why most politicians share accommodation. They get $200 a night but only pay say $50 a night. They are making money courtesy of the tax payer.
When they are on duty they get an allowance for staying somewhere in a hotel anywhere in Australia. Again let us say it is $200 a night. If they stay somewhere where it is cheaper than that they pocket the difference.

My humble suggestion is simply get the politician to send in the bill for what they paid and then the Department recompenses them. It occurs like this  in the private sector and it works.

Do it in the public sector!

Sinclair Davidson caught out

When Donald Trump held a press conference what would you expect people to talk about?

Perhaps it was his colossal error on jobs?
Sinclair Davidson thought it was about CNN. 
Steve from Brisbane  was on the job exposing this fake news.

Even if Davidson missed this a person said this in comments.
"typically, Trump got it wrong. Like the JournL and virtually everyone rise CNN chose not to refer to the content of the document that is correctly described as unverified and salacious. The only media that published that material is buzzfeed.'

Has Davidson retracted his false implication? not on your nelly.

He is a disgrace!

Around the Traps 13/1/17

It is time for Around the Traps again


Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, Oy,y,Oy,Oy

• Helen Hodgson on why-centrelink-should-adopt-a-light-touch-when-data-matching
• John  Quiggin on the-australians-clean-coal-magic-trick
• Croaking Cassandra on economics-of-immigration-where-should-the-burden-of-proof-lie
• Peter Whiteford on note-to-centrelink-australian-workers-lives-have-changed
• Martin Loosemore and Anumitra Chamd on hospitals-feel-the-heat-too-from-extreme-weather-and-its-health-impacts
• Andrew Elder on credit-where-its-due
• Antony Green on filling-the-rod-culleton-senate-vacancy
• Christine Heliar on centrelink-data-matching-problems-show-the-need-for-a-government-blockchain
• Yee Fui Ng on ley-goes-and-turnbulls-reforms-pave-way-for-fewer-expenses-scandals
• Greg Jericho on the-governments-horrific-start-to-the-year-is-fully-deserved-and-completely-appropriate

Northern America

• Kruggers on the-shock-of-the-normal , there-will-be-no-obamacare-replacement
• Carola Binder on post-election-political-divergence-in-economic-expectations
• run17551 on more-on-how-republicans-impacted-healthcare-premiums-and-companies-to-leave-the-exchanges-and republicans , repealing-the-ppaca , the-cost-of-repealing-the-ppaca
• Dean Baker on the-obama-jobs-record
• Brad De Long on trump-and-the-us-economy-q-what-do-you-think-will-be-the-single-most-important-outcome-of-the-trump-presidency-for-the-future
• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on deficits-matter-again , infrastructure-delusions
• Stephen Grenville on trumps-economic-worldview
• Menzie Chinn on the-current-account-in-previous-tax-cutspend-regimes, what-explains-the-trump-dollar , why-trumpist-rejection-of-trade-openness-is-regressive
• Simon Johnson on folly-of-trumponomics Thanks Mark
• Mark Thoma on heres-what-really-caused-the-housing-crisis
• Noah Smith on economists-contemplate-life-on-the-outs
• John Cassidy on obamas-economic-record-an-assessment Thanks Mark
• Greg Sargant on memo-to-the-media-stop-giving-trump-the-headlines-he-wants Thanks Brad
• Ivor Gaber on the-trump-dossier-and-verification-in-the-era-of-fake-news
• Ben Cassleman on no-one-has-a-good-plan-to-get-rid-of-trumps-conflicts-including-trump
• Dani Rodrik on trump-defective-industrial-policy Thanks Brad
• Olivier Blanchard on the US Phillips curve Thanks Brad
• David Glasner on la-republique-constitutionelle-cest-moi 
• Brad Setser on the-u-s-needs-more-manufactured-exports Thanks Mark
• Simon Wren-Lewis on kocherlakotas-argument-for-fiscal-expansion-in-the-US
• Peter Dorman on minimum-wages-and-productivity
• Barry Eichengreen on /trump-political-forebear-enoch-powell Thanks Mark
• Luigi Zingales on donald-trumps-economic-policy-pro-business-not-pro-market Thanks Mark
• Robert Schiller on make-america-great-again-isnt-just-about-money-and-power
• Ben Bernanke on the-fed-and-fiscal-policy Thanks Mark

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on tough-on-causes-of-immigration
• Kevin O'Rourke on brentry
• Chris Dillow on brexit-as-identity-politics , on-wage-ratio-policies
• Tim Johnson on some-implications-of-bank-of-england=comparing-itsef-to-the-Metoffice
• Brad De Long on must-read-antonio-fata-and-lawrence-h-summers-_the-permanent-effects-of-fiscal-consolidations
• Thomas Piketty on of-productivity-in-france-and-in-germany Thanks Mark
• Simon Wren-Lewis on the-french-election-and-two-dimensional-politics
• Aidan Regan ontrade-surpluses-and-german-economic-nationalism

Asia

• Robert E Kelly on year-come-northeast-asian-security
• Roger Shanhan on syria-and-problem-with-numbers
• Menzie Chinn on chinese-forex-reserves-continue-declining
• Rafaello Pantucci on central-asian-connectivity-going-beyond-china
• Emanuel Sarfraz on pakistan-enters-nuke-triad-club

Wonk

• pseudoerasmas on bairoch Thanks Brad
• John Quiggin on the-it-revolution-comes-to-transport , health-policy-excerpt-from-economics-in-two-lessons
• Viet Nuygen on why-and-how-do-we-measure-what-consumers-feel
• Timothy Taylor on narrative-economics-and-laffer-curve , a-new-era-of-price-discrimination
• Marshall Steinbaum on monopsony-takes-center-stage Thanks Mark
• Brad Setser on two-trade-variables-to-watch-in-2017
• Noah Smith on sometimes-it-s-hard-to-explain-market-failures , tribal-warfare-in-economics-is-a-thing-of-the-past , milton-friedman-s-cherished-theory-is-laid-to-rest
• Brad De Long on hoisted-from-the-archives-_globalization-and-neoliberalism , three-four-many-secular-stagnations
• Mike Kimel on issues-affecting-economic-growth-gored-oxen-edition
• Henry Farrell on algorithmic-price-fixing
• Chris Dillow on irrationality-in-the-boardroom
• Andy Haldane on from-economic-crisis-to-crisis-in-economics Thanks Mark
• Chris Dillow on on-defences-and-attacks-on-economics
• Atossa Abrahamian on branko-milanovic-economist-proposal-open-borders-migration-citizenship Thanks Mark
• Mike Kimel on net-migration-and-economic-growth-around-the-world
• Simon Wren-Lewis on miles-on-haldane-on-economic-in-crises
• Matt Robertsw Sklar on more-on-the-bond-equity-correlation Thanks Mark
• Adam Ozimet on The-Case-Against-Cutting-Top-Marginal-Tax-Rates Thanks Mark

General

• Tim Harford on undercover-friday
• Nic Bisley on five-political-leaders-to-watch-in-2017
• Pascal Molenberghs on understanding-others-feelings-what-is-empathy-and-why-do-we-need-it
• Various on health-check-is-it-safe-to-microwave-your-food
• Nic Haslam on do-art-and-literature-cultivate-empathy
• Frances Woolley on tony
• Caroline Spry on why-are-most-people-right-handed-the-answer-may-be-in-the-mouths-of-our-ancestors
• Roy Hay on is-fifa-expanding-the-football-world-cup-for-the-good-of-the-game
• Virginia Barbour on how-the-insights-of-the-large-hadron-collider-are-being-made-open-to-everyone

Climate

• David Appell on basic-energy-balance-and-famous-factor-of-4
• Artic sea ice on piomas-january-2017
• Variable Variability on much-ado-about-noaathing
• and Then Thers Physics on and-so-it-begins
• Tamino on global-warmings-record-year
• Stoat on climate-models-have-proven-extremely-skillful-in-predicting-the-warming-that-has-already-been-observed

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• the-lure-of-luxury
• being-bilingual-postpones-symptoms-of-dementia
• time-inc-stoops-level-american-society-human-genetics-ppnas
• problems with randomised trials
• ive-said-before-and-ill-say-it-again
• connections between qualitative and quantitative research
• the-prior-fully-comprehended-last-put-first-checked-the-least
• a small underpowered treasure trove
• conceptual-introduction-hamiltonian-monte-carlo
• there-is-no-negative-incumbency-advantage
• frank-harrell-statistics-blog

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• jaggers-theorem
• when-is-dummy-variable-not-dummy-variable
• trading-models-and-distributed-lags
• No Hesitations on all-of-machine-learning-in-one-expressions

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• b
• Croaking Cassandra on greenspan-and-pressure-on-independent-central-bankers
• Flavio Menezes on book-review-trillion-dollar-baby
• Brad De Long on moar-books
• pseodoerasmas on economic history books

Vox wonk

• using-lotteries-incentivise-safer-sexual-behaviour
• unemployment-insurance-and-employment-during-great-recession
• women-competitive-environments-evidence-expert-chess
• ascendancy-international-data-flows
• effectiveness-information-campaigns-countering-public-opposition-immigration
• future-of-central-bank-independence
• causes-mortgage-default
• new-models-macroeconomic-policy
• immigration-and-economic-prosperity
• us-tariffs-are-arbitrary-and-regressive-tax
• confusion-about-lender-last-resort
• helicopter-money-loved-not-spent

US Housing Crisis

There has been a load of nonsense in certain 'conservative 'groups trying to attempt to pin the blame on the housing crisis on the US government principally the CRA. This bit of false news is very easily shown to be false.
In recent times  MARK THOMA  and CALCULATED RISK have gone into this.
As usual it is incorrect. I have read papers on this topic from every regional Federal Reserve and at least two from THE Federal Reserve itself which go into quite a lot of detail in investigating this using very sophisticated statistical techniques.
This is a furphy that the 'right' will never let go. It was fake news before fake news. Post truth days are far earlier than most think.

Advice for Trump

Former Deputy governor of the RBA Stephen Grenville has some advice of Trump.

Menzie Chinn examines what occurred when the last two Presidents had policies like trump espouses.

Janet Yellen is going to have her work cut out for her me thinks!