Monday, 15 August 2016

The US Presidential election

It seems (going on Sam Wang and Nate Silver) with about 12 weeks to go this election is Hillary Clintons to lose.

This would only happen if the Republicans nominated a person few people could vote for. In Donald Trump they have a candidate only the mentally impaired would vote for. At present he has few policies apart from making Mexico paying for a fence on the border. . The little he has said on economic policy would indicate that like most Republicans he likes to increase the deficit for little advantage at all to the economy unlike Obama's modest stimulus. ( Talking of Obama it is highly ironic so many 'conservatives' have criticized his fiscal policy yet failed to recognise he has produced a MUCH more austere policy than the sainted Ronald Reagan It is one of the reasons why the recovery has been so weak!).

I would imagine Clinton will decimate Trump in the debates. Once the Republican primary debates got down to three candidates and Trump had to do more than deliver one liners he was woeful.

However people should focus on what Clinton will do once she wins.

Let us go back a bit. When Obama was running Kruggers asked what his plan B was as it was certain Republicans would not cooperate at all as Obama was hoping they would.
As we found out Obama had no plan B and had to think on his feet to stay in office.

How will Clinton fight Congress? On her most optimistic scenario the Republicans will still have control of the house.

We also know whilst Clinton is fantastic on policies and policy detail she has no political smarts at all.
I could see her losing that battle and consequently the 2020 Presidential election.

The next four years could well be highly problematic and not too good for the US economy as she battles the house.