Tuesday, 5 July 2016

Who forgot about the margin of error

If there is one thing that came from this election it is people across the board forgot about the margin of error.

In essence the polls were the same right through the campaign. They didn't move. Given the margin of error a poll saying the ALP is in front 51:49 is no different to one saying they are behind 51:49 to one saying they are equal 50:50.

Despite this all sorts of commentators thought the Coalition's campaign in the last week was great because he polls  showed that.

Given there was little change in the polls commentators should have been quite cautious but instead became fixed in their opinions on why the Coalition would win the election in a reasonably easy fashion.The result should not have come as a great shock because it was a strong possibility from all the polling!

I might sat immodestly if they had read what I had written they might have been a lot more circumspect.

As for the criticism of journalists I will eave that to the master


Postscript:

Yes this means mediscare was not the big issue both parties are saying it was