Monday, 11 July 2016

Mediscare didn't do a thing!

There has been a lot of claims involving the ALP's mediscare campaign during the election. It was this that won the ALP so many seats but is it true?

No it ain't for two reasons.

  1. From the start to the finish the polls simply didn't change given their margin of error.There was certainly no change in either the ALP's vote (positively) or the Coalitions ( negatively) in the last two weeks when this scare campaign was at its height..
  2. How come this campaign was ONLY successful in Liberal held seats but not National seats.It would be absurd in the extreme to argue negative changes to medicare would only affect Liberal held seats.
Now we have got that silly theory out of the way let us examine The Coalition's scare campaigns. They tried a boats will come back scare and a deficit and debt scare campaign. They both sunk ( pun intended) without a trace.
Why ? My view is with regard to boats you cannot revive a campaign if they are not coming.
You cannot scare people on deficits and debt if you have increased it and not decreased it.It is one of the reasons the public turned off Abbott. He insisted they were improving the deficit whilst increasing it.  When Turnbull imitated Abbott he simply became unpopular.

I do think we will face an early election. If Shorten plays his cards well he should win it easily. The same could have been said about Beazley in 1998 and he went on to lose!

There has never been a more exciting time to be a political leader!

Update:

  • Yes I am saying the campaign made no impact on how people would vote.
  • I voted for the coalition for the last time until the ALP serves two terms of government.
  • I am pleased Ann Aly won. She faced a very unpleasant campaign against her. Micheal Keenan didn't even have the guts to debate her on his allegations against her. Indeed no-one as far as I can see has even given any evidence to back  these allegations. see THIS