Saul is now an academic is his native Tasmania. He did have a positions in financial markets for a long time and has been a long time critic of negative gearing.
He raise a number of points
'Investors' in housing has taken a larger proportion of the market since the capital gains changes.
Indeed one might say they have crowded out first home buyers.Indeed I think calling them investors is incorrect. They are speculators. They have no interest in what rent they get. They only concentrate on capital appreciation.
If current 'investors' are guaranteed then there is little prospect of a drastic fall in housing prices.
Two points from this. Saul's paper is a breath of fresh air in the debate.
If the ALP cannot use this RBA memo to defend their policy then they deserve all they get!