Wednesday, 25 May 2016

Poll round up

We have the latest round of polls so here is

Mark the Ballot here and here.
Kevin Bonham's prognostications here.

My thought's thus far. Campaign has made no difference at all as yet.
if the vote is say 50:50 but there a a number of marginal seats staying with the coalition then ipsofacto there must be large swings in safe seats.

As i have remarked previously I fail to understand why some people are so surprised Shorten favourable ratings are rising. Equal treatment with the PM usually does that.

When push comes to shove will the right wing commentariat and shock jocks still campaign against Turnbull because he is not conservative to show how powerful they are or will they sand bag and implicitly back Turnbull.

I think we can say with confidence the coalition have started badly and the ALP has not. given it is a long campaign this will not be relevant at the end of the campaign.

Update:
I should have added assuming nothing much occurs today or tomorrow you would normally expect a slight swing to the ALP given the embarrassing performances of messrs Morrison. Cormann and Joyce

Special update:

Mark the Ballot does a betting update each Friday .A must read