two plus two equals five

I am astounded how many times the coalition gets away with the claim that it is the ALP ,who are the big spenders and the coalition is trying desperately to cut spending.

As the KOUK shows this is completely contradicted by the facts! Bear in mind the ALP had to combat the GFC something the present government never had to do.

It merely adds weight to Andrew Elder's  constant criticism of the press gallery. They must have never read budget papers.

It also shows up how poor most ALP politicians are as well.

Big Brother is well  and truly here.

A safe pair of hands

What people expect is for a leader of the major party to 'have a safe pair of hands' so they can be confident if or when they become Prime Minister they will make the correct decisions and not do anything stupid.
The punters completely lost confidence in Tony Abbott as having a safe pair of hands. Whether it was awarding Prince Phillp an honour or saying he would shirtfront Putin Abbott simply became an embarrassment. When you add his lying about what he would not cut or do in office then his drastic drop in polling was very explainable. Thus Abbott was ALWAYS going to lose this election big time.

When Turnbull took over hid great surge in popularity came about because he was seen as a non-politician. This unravelled as people realised they were wrong on this.

Another important part was Turnbull being seen as a safe pair of hands. An adult was now in charge. People were confident no stupid decisions would be made. Just as importantly people were confident that no matter how stupid people such as Peter Dutton or Barnaby Joyce would sat with Turnbull in charge he would over-rule them.
Now they are not so sure. Moreover if the political strategy was to  move the topic to Asylum seekers and win back votes then clearly that hasn't worked. All the while Turnbull has been uttering Abbott like phrases which no-one believes and acting like a very weak leader. Indeed the Liberal strategy is so inept I was wondering if it was dreamt up by Steve Kates.
They have highlighted Turnbull weak points very adroitly!  At least they have 5 weeks to rectify this. If they do not get back to having Turnbull having a safe pair of hands then  the ALP could well win the election!

You cannot be serious

Imagine you wake up on July 3 and somehow the ALP has won a close election.

Bill Shorten has achieved something few people imagined he could attain.

Does anyone seriously imagine anyone in the Caucus would challenge anything he put up.
The very idea of the ALP winning the election but caucus over-ruling Shorten and Cabinet on border protection even though he changed policy in this area is so fanciful to be absurd.

The tight numbers in the ?house of Representatives would simply exacerbate this. The party would be tightly disciplined both in caucus and parliament. There would be little debate on any issue let alone a controversial one given the circumstances of the win.

Around the Traps 27/5/16

It is time for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Quiggin on the-two-party-preferred-fallacy , campbell-newman-the-gift-that-keeps-on-taking
• Croaking Cassandra  on alternative-narratives , the-ocr-leak-some-disclosures , scattered-thoughts-on-the-budget-documents
• Andrew Jacobowicz on politicians-trashing-immigrants-and-refugees-are-the-real-danger-to-social-cohesion
• Ross Guest on australia-needs-a-better-independent-fiscal-agency
• Mark the Ballot on newspoll-49-51 , full-betting-market-update
• Greg Jericho on pre-election-2016-fiscal-and-economic-outlook-weakness-labor-coalition , no-jobs-and-growth-joy-for-coalition-in-latest-investment-figures
• The Kouk on jobs-and-growth-both-are-stalling-actually , delving-into-budget-black-holes
• Gonzallo Villaneuva on dairy-farmers-are-being-milked-dry-but-lets-remember-the-real-cost-of-milk
• Tim Mazzaroi on murray-goulburn-saga-has-roots-in-deregulation
• Andrew Elder on what-dead-cat-tells-us
• Merja Myllylahti on why-some-newspaper-paywalls-are-simply-unsustainable
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-not-even-dead-cat-bounce
• Chris Martin on might-labors-negative-gearing-policy-yet-save-the-housing-market
• Brendan Coates and John Daley on who-loses-most-is-not-always-the-right-question
• Ken Parish on urban-transport-dreaming
• Ben Eltham on no-ideas-and-no-idea-the-barnaby-joyce-show
• Antony Green on liberal-preferences-and-green-prospects-at-the-2016-election
• Ken Parish on nova-peris-a-contemporary-political-soap-opera

Northern America

• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-this-is-not-a-drill-this-is-the-real-thing , fed-watch-curious , fed-watch-should-the-fed-tolerate-5-unemployment, fed-watch-powell-data
• James Hamilton on dueling-nowcasts
• Timothy Taylor on rising-tuition-discount-rates-at-private-colleges , telemedicine
• Pat Higgins on can-two-wrongs-make-a-right
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-april-new-home-sales
• Livio Di Matteo on health-spending-numbers-an-update-on-the-long-term
• Narayana Kocherlakotos on ending-an-unhealthy-obsession-with-the-fed  , the-fed-s-amazing-self-fulfilling-forecastThanks Mark 
• Josh Bivens on larry-summers-the-congressional-progressive-caucus-budget-and-the-abandonment-of-fiscal-policy

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on economists-are-losers-so-ignore-them-on-Brexit , is-eurozone-dying , household-debt-and-house-prices
• Brad Setser on the-case-for-more-public-investment-in-germany-is-strong Thanks Brad
• Glenn Diesen on The-misguided-missile-defence-debate
• coppolla comment on where-on-earth-is-growth-in-greece
• The Piping Shrike on the-confusions-of-anti-politics-brexit
• Derry Hogue on Facts-take-flight;-rhetoric-takes-over
• Tony Yates on  politically-orchestrated-groupthink-ruth-lea

Asia

• Sussanne Schmeidl on Taliban-will-go-on-even-without-Mullah-Akhtar-Mansur
• Roger Shanahan on The-US-in-the-Middle-East-(Only-a-few)-boots-on-the-ground , Fallujah-Deja-vu-all-over-again
• Sam Roggeveen on Lifting-of-Vietnam-arms-embargo-not-about-China-Pull-the-other-one-Obama
• Brad Setser on china-is-pivoting-away-from-imports-not-just-rebalancing-away-from-exports
• Greg Lopez on Malaysian-PM-Najib-Razak-strengthens-hold-on-power
• Peter Cai on The-China-factor-Looming-large-over-new-President-Tsais-plans-for-economic-autonomy

Wonk

• Narayana Kocherlaktos on four-ways-to-think-about-the-economy Thanks Mark
• Brad De Long on social-credit-and-neutral-monetary-policies-a-rant-on-helicopter-money-and-monetary-neutrality
• Noah Smith on theory-vs-evidence-unemployment-insurance-edition , 101ism-overtime-pay-edition
• Pro-growth Liberal on stopler-samuelson-weighs-in-on-protectionaist-debate
• Tim Harford on a-billion-prices-cant-be-wrong , the-refugee-crisis-match-us-if-you-can
• Chris Dillow on tv-journalism-no-place-for-marxists , bad-arguments-against-marxism , prospect-theory-populism
• Jeffrey Frankel on focus-on-fiscal-policy-at-g7  Thanks Brad longer version guest-contribution-fiscal-education-for-the-g-7
• Brad De Long on todays-economic-history-john-maynard-keynes-1931-unemployment-as-a-world-problem
• Timothy Taylor on the-tradeoffs-of-parking-spots
• Stephen Grenville on Lets-not-frame-the-TPP-as-a-contain-China-play
• David Glasner on p-h-wicksteed-the-coase-theorem-and-the-real-cost-fallacy
• Gareth Downing on how-g7-can-boost-the-global-economy
• Nick Rowe on helicopter-money-is-small-beer
• Eric Lonergan on helicopter-money-is-different
• Carola Binder on behavioral-economics-then-and-now
• Larry Summers on what-you-need-to-know-about-the-next-recession-starring-donald-trump/?postshare Thanks Mark 
• Nick Gruen on the-social-world-as-a-nested-ecology-of-public-and-private-goods-part-two
• Bruce Muirhead on time-to-get-regulation-back-into-australian-dairy

General

• Julia Kindt on guide-to-the-classics-the-histories-by-herodotus
• Lord Keynes on debunking-austrian-economics-101-updated
• Xantghe Mallett on psychology-of-a-paedophile-why-are-some-people-attracted-to-children
• Brendan Zietsch on how-do-we-choose-a-partner
• Brett Addison on stars-with-planets-on-strange-orbits-whats-going-on

Climate

• Arctic sea ice blog on Beaufort gyre
• Real Climate on do-regional-climate-models-add-value-compared-to-global-models
• Tamino on record-global-warming-or-warming-slowdown
• David Appell on ocean-heat-data-shows-recent-atmospheric-warming
• Rob Honeycutt on tracking-the-2c-limit
• various on /el-nino-is-over-but-has-left-its-mark-across-the-world
• Ceridwen Fraser on antarctica-may-not-be-as-isolated-as-we-thought-and-thats-a-worry

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• stop-the-polling-insanity
• now that's what I call a power pose
• the-difference-between-significant-and-not-significant-is-not-itself-statistically-significant-education-edition
• women and men
• causal inference
• Tamino on time-series-lesson-2 , time-series-lesson-3
• Kaiser Fung on tip-of-the-day-dont-be-theranosed

Genial Dave Giles ( econmetrics)

• a-quick-illustration-of-pre-testing-bias
• David Stern on should-we-test-for-cointegration-using-johansen-procedure Thanks Mark

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• markets-in-all-their-glory , realism-and-utopia-a-guest-review
• Graham Farr on the-man-who-knew-infinity-inspiration-rigour-and-the-art-of-mathematics
• Heather Williams on Book-review-Chinas-Future-by-David-Shambaugh

Vox wonk

• private-news-and-monetary-policy
• too-much-globalisation-can-be-taxing
• how-much-we-work-past-present-and-future
• /british-wellbeing-1780-1850-impact-industrialisation
• migration-crisis-and-refugee-policy-europe
• growing-spain-1995-2007
• migration-crisis-and-refugee-policy-europe
• geographic-distribution-crime
• helicopter-money-illusion-free-lunch
• why-global-trade-slowdown-may-matter
• anomalous-trading-prior-lehman-s-failure
• when-economic-incentives-crowd-social-preferences
• esm-game-changer-economic-integration

Poll round up

We have the latest round of polls so here is

Mark the Ballot here and here.
Kevin Bonham's prognostications here.

My thought's thus far. Campaign has made no difference at all as yet.
if the vote is say 50:50 but there a a number of marginal seats staying with the coalition then ipsofacto there must be large swings in safe seats.

As i have remarked previously I fail to understand why some people are so surprised Shorten favourable ratings are rising. Equal treatment with the PM usually does that.

When push comes to shove will the right wing commentariat and shock jocks still campaign against Turnbull because he is not conservative to show how powerful they are or will they sand bag and implicitly back Turnbull.

I think we can say with confidence the coalition have started badly and the ALP has not. given it is a long campaign this will not be relevant at the end of the campaign.

Update:
I should have added assuming nothing much occurs today or tomorrow you would normally expect a slight swing to the ALP given the embarrassing performances of messrs Morrison. Cormann and Joyce

Special update:

Mark the Ballot does a betting update each Friday .A must read

Keating has a lot to answer for

In the 1987 election Paul Keating went through the opposition's policies and found a large mathematical error.
John Howard was so enraged he grabbed his shadow treasurer by the throat and started to choke him. He had to be pulled off him . Howard obviously thought at the time his  only chance at being Prime minister was gone.  As in many things he was wrong.

Go to 2004 and Peter Costello made some large claims about ALP economic policy. however this blew up in his face when firstly on AM he was given a tutorial on budgetary costings by the ABC reporter and secondly when Treasury showed in their costings Costell o simply had no idea.

Yesterday we had Morrison and Cormann attempting to do a Keating. Again it was embarrassing. They were in my words of yesterday either ignorant or lying through their teeth. Morrison's interview with Leigh Sales could well be the worst I have seen for a long time. He was terrible.
See Gareth Hutchens for how the Minsters calculated their figures!

When the current government won the last election they initially attempted to say the cupboard was bare without realising this is impassible given the Charter of budget honesty. Now the same government thinks the political scene is the same and the advent of the Parliamentary Budget Office has not done anything.

It is a different era now fellas!

Update:
As much as I hate to admit tony burke has been one of the most effective ALP politicians both on this and on other issues. He had both Morrison and Cormann for breakfast. I hate to admit because I simply do not like the bloke.

Is this lying or just plain laziness

One of our favourites wrote a column yesterday criticising the ALP's spending.
Quite a few problems.

At this stage we do not know all of the ALP's programs. We do not know for example how much of any spending plan is merely a change in priorities. Yesterday for example the ALP announced instead of a goods rail they would spend money on passenger rail which involve a significant saving!

We do know the ALP is using the Parliamentary Budget Office for costing their programs. Hence we can be confident the costings are as good as can be gotten. The Peroxide Princess criticises the PBO but doesn't give any evidence to back her criticism up at all. If she was consistent then she would criticise the budget to high heaven as she should have little confidence their costings!

The time to get stuck into the ALP  spending any revenue estimates is when it is all announced later.It isn't now when simply no-one knows what the net spending proposals and how they are funded is known.,

Sinkers had a go at Richard Di Natale. Now I have no time for the Greens who are in essence backdoor marxists. It is pretty easy to criticise their policies. However is Sinkers so lazy he didn't know the position here is a part-time one. Why would anyone put up the full-time  minimum wage unless they are goebellising?

It is no wonder given how poor both articles were Sinkers does not allow Free speech over at Catallaxy.

What if the election was 50:50

What if the election resulted in a 50:50 result in votes so the coalition wins narrowly.

I could see civil war erupting in the coalition when all those 'conservatives ' say we would have won easily under tony Abbott. Never mind the polls saying they would have LOST easily under Abbott.

This would prove problematic as the next half senate and  HOR election would be held in two years time.

Very interesting.


update:

Three quick comments
1)  I am surprised at how many people are surprised that people are viewing Shorten more favorably. when you get 50/50 coverage that in what occurs
2) Turnbull is not looking good for two reasons  The first is  he is no longer the non-politician. He is getting down and dirty. The punters do not like that
3) When gooses like Dutton open their mouth they used to think Turnbull would change that. Now it seems he is no longer different to Abbott. it seems he cannot control them.

Around the Traps 20/5/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Paul Burke on direct-action-not-giving-us-bang-for-our-buck-on-climate-change
• Stephen Grenville on Why-we-wont-hear-much-about-trade-in-this-campaign
• Ross Gittins on hard-working-aussies-help-pay-for-company-tax-cut , why-turnbulls-google-tax-would-be-reasonably-effective , why-wage-growth-is-so-weak
• Andrew Elder on ahead-of-time
• Saul Eslake on why-the-reserve-bank-should-resist-calls-to-alter-its-inflation-range
• A new Anthropocene on storrar-and-the-red-faced-middle-when-we-have-it-so-easy-that-we-forget-how-to-do-it
• Croaking Cassandra on the-treasury-on-immigration-policy , expectations-measure-still-warrant-further-ocr-cuts , sometimes-i-wonder
• Harry Clarke on foolish-labor-policy-on-natural-gas
• Georgins Ramsay on election-factcheck-are-many-refugees-illiterate-and-innumerate
• Fances Voon and Claire Higgins on duttons-refugee-claims-are-out-of-step-with-evidence-and-thinking-at-home-and-abroad
• John Daley and Brendan Coates on the-full-story-on-company-tax-cuts-and-your-hip-pocket
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-and-seat-betting-watch
• Olive Muurlink on how-reducing-penalty-rates-will-affect-workers-health
• Greg Jericho on we-need-to-talk-about-inflation-the-great-debate-missing-from-this-election-campaign , the-real-story-about-growth-and-why-we-dont-need-to-worry-about-bracket-creep
• Ken Parish on taxis-uber-and-a-fair-days-pay
• The Kouk on better-schools-will-benefit-the-whole-economy-why-cant-the-coalition-see-that
• John Daley and Hugh Parsonage on /why-the-budget-income-tax-cuts-look-fair-in-the-longer-run-
• Margaret Giles on questioning-the-assumptions-underlying-the-pre-election-economic-and-fiscal-outlook

Northern America

• Noah Smith on russ-roberts-on-politicization-humility-evidence , how-bigoted-are-trump-supporters
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-fed-not-as-convinced-about-june-as-markets , fed-watch-fed-officials-come-looking-for-a-fight , fed-watch-minutes-say-june-is-on-the-table
• James Kwak on the-problem-with-obamacare  Thanks Brad
• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on it-takes-a-policy
• Narayana Kocherlakota on two-questions-for-hillary-clinton-about-the-fed  Thanks Mark
• Pat Higgins on gdpnow-and-then
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-april-housing-starts , a-few-comments-on-april-existing-home
• Timothy Taylor on what-was-different-about-housing-this-time
• Anna Marie Santacrue and Usa Kurdnunvong on why-is-labor-force-participation-rate-increasing Thanks Mark

Europe

• Tony Yates on the-bank-of-englands-brexit-press-conference , jacob-rees-mogg-and-firing-mark-carney
• Chris Dillow on the-trouble-with-the-brexit-debate , regulation-bbc-bias , sources-of-biased-journalism
• Simon Wren-Lewis on brexit-immigration-and-100 , economics-reporting-without-any

Asia

• Croaking Cassandra on chinas-continuing-economic-failure , a-treasury-official-blogging-on-chinese-cross-border-investment
• Meriden Varall on The-Cultural-Revolution-then-and-now
• Roger Shanahan on Hizbullahs-financial-war-of-attrition
• Marie McCauliffe on Lebanon-Struggling-on-in-the-face-of-donor-fatigue
• John Edwards on Vision-2030-(part-1)-Saudi-Arabias-bold-re-invention-plan , why-the-budget-income-tax-cuts-look-fair-in-the-longer-run

Wonk

• John Quiggin on predistribution-and-profits-extract-from-economics-in-two-lessons , minimum-wages-and-predistribution-extract-from-economics-in-two-lessons
• John Cassidy on raghuram-rajan-and-the-dangers-of-helicopter-money Thanks Mark
• Timothy Taylor on economics-of-hosting-olympics , tradeoffs-of-cultured-meat-production
• Simon Wren-Lewis on a-general-theory-of-austerity , helicopter-money-and-fiscal-policy
• Edward Lambert on circular-flow-labor-capital
• Menzie Chinn on more-on-uncertainty-in-open-economy-macro
• David Beckworth on the-us-as-banker-to-world
• Coppolla comment on keynes-and-quantity-theory-of-money
• Noah Smith on whats-difference-between-macro-and-micro-economics
• Stanley Fischer on Interest and Prices Pantikin and Woodford Thanks Mark

General

• Mikhael Dupre and Gaelle Boulbry on sales-increase-by-up-to-56-when-shoppers-know-a-product-will-last
• Frances Woolley on gender-based-analysis-a-guide-for-economists
• Ian Maddocks on palliative-care-should-be-embraced-not-feared
• Camilla Nelson on /review-jane-austens-women-have-been-done-a-disservice

Climate

• Moyhu on april-giss-down-0.18-hottest-april-on Record
• Tamino on arctic-dive , models
• Peter Sinclair on snowball-in-hell-this-years-arctic-temps
• Andrew King and Ed Hawkins on 2016-is-likely-to-be-the-worlds-hottest-year-heres-why 
• Alan Aitken on antarctic-glaciers-unstable-past-reveals-danger-of-future-melting
• hotwhopper on it-is-essentially-trivial-says-jonathan-jones
• and Then Theres Physics on consensus-messaging-again
• Greg Laden on the-glaciers-will-melt-the-sea-will-rise-up
• Real Climate on amoc-slowdown-connecting-the-dots
• David Appell on arctic-sea-ice-just-set-all-time-record-low
• Bob Henson onarctic-sea-ice-goes-far-beyond-record-low-extent-for-may

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• point-summary-of-posterior-simulations
• peer-review-abuse-flashback
• beautiful-graphs-for-baseball-strike-count-performance
• birthday-analysis-friday-the-13th-update
• will-transparency-damage-science,
• Nick, Nate and Mark on Liecester and Trump
• Kaiser Fung on dreadful-analysis-shows-the-importance-of-numbersense , law-versus-ethics-how-the-new-overtime-pay-rule-will-play-out
• Tamino on time-series-begins

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• graduate-econometrics-exam

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• timely-advice-for-voters , the-health-of-the-publishing-industry , economic-thought-and-its-idiosyncracies

vox wonk

• special-and-differential-treatment-developing-countries-reconsidered
• learning-career-paths-and-distribution-wages
• effects-private-school-subsidy-programmes-school-revenue-and-enrolment
• debunking-fiscal-alchemy-role-fiscal-councils
• immigration-free-movement-and-uk-referendum
• unconventional-monetary-policy-results-cfm-survey
• what-s-your-surname-intergenerational-mobility-over-six-centuries
• low-long-interest-rates-and-net-interest-margins-banks
• leverage-ratio-myth
• segregation-us-cities-new-evidence
• new-normal-never-was
• competition-and-creation-bank-liquidity
• /what-world-can-learn-argentinas-holdout-saga

Peter Dutton is a grub

We learn't yesterday the Coalition is very worried about losing the election. They had Dutton as bad cop and Turnbull as good cop.
Dutton made allegations which are wrong even on his own preferred source. He was clearly dogwhistling to get the redneck vote. The ABC also showed his allegations were crap This makes it worse much worse.. Will all those right wing commentators now say they were wrong?

Even sinkers thought the allegations crap. Mind you how refugees can take 'aussie' jobs and be unemployed was beyond him ( Dutton)!

How a Minster can believe in the lump of labour fallacy is disconcerting.

I doubt is this will work for the Coalition. Dutton was altogether too open about his dogwhistling. Turnbull never looks good at being Abbott lite. I also agree with Steve from Brisbane

Shorten is performing way better than I thought he could whilst Turnbull is well below where  I thought he would be.

Stop the Presses A Wage breakout

The ABS released it Wage Price Index today. It is rising at 2.1% the LOWEST on record.

Not looking good for future budgets. Of course this is more evidence for Katesy and Sloan for their wages break out. Stagflation Davidson is looking good as each day as well. ( irony button off)

Real wages are falling thus employment is stronger, unemployment is lower and industrial disputation very low as well.

Just as well the ALP exacerbated the labour market de-regulation eh Gerry!

Catallaxy clowns

Some clown why likes to be know as I am Spartacus wrote yesterday about what was in  essense a column  attacking Peter Martin.

Peter wrote a column for Fairfax outlining four reasons why John Symonds was wrong. He didn't talk about Symonds blatant hypocrisy


To quote him he said this ' I won’t rip into Mr. Martin’s analysis beyond saying the words efficient market hypothesis.'

Amazing . I wonder if it was Judy Sloan in drag. No mention of how the RBA memo was wrong either!

This is what Catallaxy has gotten into . Laziness and stupidity.

Three Military Commanders

I got a book out from the library which compared and contrasted Rommel, Patton and Montgomery.

I have read quite a few books on each before so I didn't actually read anything new but it was a worthwhile read.

Rommel was an erstwhile Hitler supporter even though he is constantly portrayed as a 'good' nazi and was killed for nought. He didn't and wasn't involved in the plot to kill Hitler. He certainly understood Germany would lose the war before D-day and should negotiate a surrender then on their terms. I doubt if he understood Hitler though. He thought if Germany lost then the country should no longer exist. Hitler like many of his henchmen took the cowards way out and committed suicide.

What makes me more impressed with Rommel than either Patton or Montgomery is because:

When he committed blitzkrieg in France France had superior tanks yet he won easily. ( If France had any decent commanders their tanks and the planes they bought from the USA should have given Germany a bloody nose. The fact it didn't was due to luck ( which went against them in Russia) and poor skill).

He was very good when pitted against superior and larger numerical forces.I have my doubts about both Montgomery and Patton in both circumstances.

Lastly Montgomery is easily the least likeable of the three.I would  not be surprised if he aspergers!

Why is there no debate on the debate?

On Friday night at Windsor RSL we had a leaders' debate. Well it wasn't a debate really but whatever it was Shorten won it hands down according to the punters who attended.There was a scorecard!  It was 42-29. That is as comprehensive defeat as you can get.

However if you read around you will find it very hard to find this out. The Murdoch press appears to have banned the scorecard and only give its writer's opinion.

This is a shame. if journalists did their job it would provide very interesting reading on why they voted the way they did!

I used to be a politcal junkie

I had the flu last week and thus was at home for a few days. It was my misfortune to watch ABC 24 for too long. Too many politicians who simply talk slogans rather than answering questions.
I thought Julie bishop was the worst of them.It has put me off the election.
although watching Kate Ellis is very enjoyable.

I am no longer a political junkie!

Around the Traps 13/5/16

It is time for Around the Traps again

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Frank Bongornio on lessons-from-history-in-how-to-run-a-good-election-campaign-or-how-to-avoid-a-really-bad-one
• Lucas Walsh on will-the-internships-program-help-young-people-get-jobs
• John Daley on retrospective-claims-on-super-changes-are-a-furphy
• croaking cassandra on looking-to-the-fsr , wheeler-and-hannah-on-the-ocr-leak , /was-the-governor-on-the-money , 80-years-of-underachievement
• Ross Gittins on just-where-are-all-jobs-and-growth-in-the-budget , how-to-unspin-budget, why-turnbulls-super-changes-are-sorely-neededl , how-budget-stacks-up-as-tax-reform
• Nick Gruen on evidence-based-policy-part-one-a-second-time , evidence-based-policy-ii-the-evaluator-general
• Phil Lewis on explainer-why-we-cant-fix-the-structural-deficit-without-tax-and-spending-reform
• Mark the Ballot on newspoll-49-51-ipsos-51-49
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-and-seat-betting-watch
• Greg Jericho on beware-tax-cuts-for-middle-australia-above-average-earners-benefit-most , youre-not-a-bludger-if-you-pay-no-net-tax-in-australia
• Ben Eltham on the-pursuit-of-duncan-storrar-reveals-the-savagery-of-australias-class-warfare
• Saul Eslake on what-the-reserve-bank-memo-really-says-about-negative-gearing
• Brendan Coates and John Daley on super-contribution-cap-changes-could-end-up-benefiting-the-rich
• Neil Hamilton on Australias-Antarctic-nightmare
• various on antarctic-ice-shows-australias-drought-and-flood-risk-is-worse-than-thought
• The Piping Shrike on locked-in
• Adrian Beaumont on election-explainer-what-are-the-opinion-polls-and-how-accurate-are-they
• Tomas Fitzgerald on jobs-and-growth-and-deja-vu-reprising-a-failed-american-experiment
• The Kouk on could-interest-rates-be-cut-to-1-or-lower , how-the-coalition-has-failed-on-three-key-economic-promises
• Dylan McConnell on carbon-taxes-emissions-trading-and-electricity-prices-making-sense-of-the-scare-campaigns
• Chris Graham on justice-denied-battle-bowraville-rages
• John Quiggin on identity-crisis-repost-from-2014

Northern America

• James Hamilton on expectations-of-inflation
• John Quiggin on rubin-gets-it-right
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-june-fades-away , fed-watch-fed-speak-claims
• James Kwak on the-problem-with-obamacare Thanks Mark
• Neel Kashkari on the-role-and-limitations-of-monetary-policy Thanks Mark
• Timothy Taylor on all-you-need-to-know-about-disability , the-rise-in-polarization-both-real-and-exaggerated , committee-behavior-and-federal-reserve
• Narayana Kocherlakos on donald-trump-versus-the-fed , the-fed-made-the-poor-poorer Thanks Mark
• Dietrich Vollrath on More-on-Decomposing-productivity-growth  Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on trump-s-ideas-about-the-deficit-sound-inflationary
• Alexander Chudik and Arthur Hinojasur on impact of chinese slowdown no longer neglible in the USA Thanks Mark
• Brad De Long on trying-to-empiricize-the-philosophy-of-probability-readings-plus-a-non-platonic-dialogue

Europe

• Parveen Ahktar on sadiq-khan-british-dream-now-a-reality-for-londons-first-muslim-mayor
• Simon Wren-Lewis on the-anti-corbyn-militants-have-failed , economists-say-no-to-brexit , media-economics-and-brexit
• Chris Dillow on against-political-correspondents
• Wayne McLean on Davutoglu-v-Erdogan-Turkish-Turmoil
• Arund Kindani on way-out-of-labour-party-anti-semitism-crisis-requires-politics-of-solidarity

Asia

• John Carlson on Dealing-with-the-North-Korean-nuclear-threat
• Malcolm Cook on /Philippine-elections-more-continuity-than-change
• Euen Graham on US-Navy-carries-out-third-FONOP-in-South-China-Sea
• John Firzgerald on Loyalty-through-links-and-control-The-long-history-of-Chinese-diaspora-diplomacy
• Stephen Pascoe on explainer-what-is-the-100-year-old-sykes-picot-agreement
• Aaron W Hughes on the-sykes-picot-agreement-and-the-making-of-the-modern-middle-east
• James L Gelvin on obsession-with-sykes-picot-says-more-about-what-we-think-of-arabs-than-history 
• Dani Rodrik on china-market-economy-status-debate Thanks Mark

Wonk

• Timothy Taylor on spring-2016-journal-of-economic-perspectives-available-online , new-angles-on-inequality-in-life-expectency
• Barkely Rosser on the-revenge-of-joan-robinson-capital-theory-controversies-revive
• James Harris on who-was-david-hume Thanks Mark 
• Noah Smith on regulation-and-growth 
• Brad De Long on highlighted-for-may-3-2016-on-the-definition-of-a-liquidity-trap , praise-of-friedrich-von-hayek-sub-blogging
• Simon Wren-Lewis on economists-versus-bankers, scientists-and-media-training
• Tim Harford on could-an-income-for-all-provide-the-ultimate-safety-net , the-odds-are-you-wont-know-when-to-quit
• Roger Farmer on prosperity-for-all-coming-soon-to-a-bookstore-near-you
• Nick Gruen on trained-incapacity-at-the-highest-levels-of-the-academy
• Kevin Drum on did-stagflation-70s-ever-exist-first-place Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on spillovers-of-conventional-and-unconventional-monetary-policy
• Roger French on would-robinson-crusoe-please-leave-stage
• Robert Waldmann on delong-on-hayek-smith-and-smith
• John Quiggin on why-is-the-finance-sector-so-profitable
• Copolla comment on the-safe-asset-scarcity-problem-2050-edition
• Chris Dillow on economics-vs-bankers
• Leon Berkelmans on Yes-monetary-policy-does-still-work
• Various on milk-price-cuts-reflect-the-reality-of-sweeping-changes-in-global-dairy-market
• David Glasner on saving-a-very-old-paper-from-oblivion
• Noah Smith on michael-strain-and-james-kwak-debate

General

• Dennis Hemphill on  integrity-in-sport-needs-to-grow-from-the-grassroots-level
• Scepticlawyer on what-starts-in-palestine-does-not-stay-in-israel
• Hussain Nadim on Returned-fighters-need-to-quit-war-not-be-asked-to-swap-sides
• Lazar Stankov on do-smart-people-tend-to-be-more-liberal-yes-but-it-doesnt-mean-all-conservatives-are-stupid
• Tim Harford on why-everyone-should-give-a-ted-talk-and-how-to-do-it
• John Horner on kepler-finds-more-earth-like-planets-but-are-they-really-like-earth
• Clare Short on why-did-david-cameron-reject-this-essay-from-anti-corruption-book

Climate

• And then theres physics on 97% , models-versus-satellites, the-uncertainty-on-the-mean , ecs-1k
• Real Climate on comparing-models-to-the-satellite-datasets
• David Spratt on /after-record-mind-numbing-coral-bleaching
• Tamino on arctic-sea-ice-3
• Climate lab book on spiralling-global-temperatures
• David Appell on department-of-oops-judith-curry-edition
• The arctic sea ice blog on piomas-may-2016
• hotwhopper on troposphere-temperatures-for-april
• Rabett run on jelly-beans-gavin-steve-attp-lucia
• John Cook on the-things-people-ask-about-the-scientific-consensus-on-climate-change

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• needed-an-intellectual-history-of-research-criticism-in-psychology
• doing-data-science
• math-on-a-plane
• bill-james-does-model-checking
• motivation
• josh-and-andrew-shred-the-ccpappc-political-polarization-literacy-test
• happy-talk-meet-the-edlin-factor

Genial Dave Giles (econmetrics)

• may-reading-list, econometric-computing-in-good-ol-days , econometric-computing-in-good-ol-days
• No Hesitations on on-origin-of-forecasts
• Eric Beinhocker on improving-the-teaching-of-econometrics Thanks Mark

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews

• a-philosophical-diversion , going-beyond-gdp-walking-the-talk , economists-and-morality, surviving-disruption-through-paranoia
• Michael Freeman on why-do-some-old-men-have-big-red-noses-no-its-not-alcohol 
• Noah Smith on review-ben-bernankes-courage-to-act

Voxwonk

• case-free-trade
• older-people-s-capacity-work-new-uk-evidence
• estimating-border-effects-international-trade-user-beware
• non-monetary-incentives-and-meaning-work
• house-kapital-evolution-housing-wealth-1955-2100
• dialect-speaking-and-language-performance-young-children
• stress-testing-and-macroprudential-regulation-transatlantic-assessment
• double-bank-runs-liquidity-risk-management-and-basel-iii
• greece-s-fundamental-problem-monetary-unions-past-and-present
• retirement-wealth-trajectories-us-vs-england
• bias-against-novelty-in-science
• managing-sudden-stops
• ecb-grants-debt-relief-all-eurozone-nations-except-greece

Who are Industry fund's competitors?

The Peroxide Princess had another rant against Industry funds. In it she alleged Self managed superannuation funds were the main competitors to Industry funds, HUH?

A few problems here.

Most industry experts believe you need about $1m  to make an SMSF a goer! Industry funds do not target high net wealth individuals.

The companies that market SMSFs make financial advisors the bogeymen. Financial advisors are closely related to retail funds because they get trailing commissions. So the SMSFs obviously think the retail funds are the main competitors.
Indeed if you enter a retail fund without a financial advisor you will still pay the same expense!

When Industry funds advertise they clearly state they do not pay trailing commissions. It seems Industry funds therefore think their main competitors are retail funds!

Not a word from her on the higher cost and lower return retail funds

Amazing don't you think.

Two  words from John Daley and Ross Gittins on the Super changes.

Opinion Polls. An explainer

Adrian Beaumont has written a good article on explaining opinion polls.

It is a must read for any political junkie
as a bonus

Mark the Ballot  another  bonus
Kevin Bonham

Saul Eslake bells the cat on negative gearing

Saul Eslake writes on the RBA memo about negative gearing.

Saul is now an academic is his native Tasmania. He did have a positions in financial markets for a long time and has been a long time critic of negative gearing.

He raise a number of points
'Investors' in housing has taken a larger proportion of the market since the capital gains changes.

Indeed one might say they have crowded out first home buyers.Indeed I think calling them investors is incorrect. They are speculators. They have no interest in what rent they get. They only concentrate on capital appreciation.

If current 'investors' are guaranteed then there is little prospect of a drastic fall in housing prices.

Two points from this. Saul's paper is a breath of fresh air in the debate.

If the ALP cannot use this RBA memo to defend their policy then they deserve all they get!

My thoughts is are  that  I would not allow negative gearing but allow positive gearing.I would change the Capital gains tax.

Cochrane crushed.

Ricardo Ambivalence's favourite economist has made an ass of himself.

See:

•  Brad De Long
• Noah Smith
• Nick Gruen

Cochrane makes errors you wouldn't credit for a smart man a lot of times. Perhaps nick is correct!

They're racing

As expected Malcolm Turnbull announced a double dissolution on July 2.
It starts out close so maybe this time for once the campaign will be  influential.Frank Bongiorno has an interesting piece on campaign

Lenore Taylor has a good article on the election.
Antony of course.
Mark the Ballot here and here

Around the Traps 6/5/16

It is time for Around the Traps again

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Michael Barry on lifting-their-voice-how-unions-can-arrest-membership-decline-and-stay-relevant
• Danika Wright on policycheck-negative-gearing-reform
• Croaking Cassandra on housing-land-tax-and-associated-things , appointing-a-central-bank-governor , does-voter-turnout-explain-dysfunctional-housing-supply-markets , a-belated-price-for-the-ocr-leak
• James Laurenceson on Knockback-of-Dakangs-bid-for-Kidman-cattle-stations-doesnt-bear-scrutiny
• Stephen Grenville on The-political-economy-of-home-made-submarines , Budget-2016-Tinkering-prevails-over-structural-reform
• Ross Gittins on what-not-be-believe-in-budget , budget-more-about-politics-than-jobs
• Nick Gruen on social-value-capture-an-idea-whose-time-has-come
• Richard Holden on budget-timing-tricks-do-nothing-to-help-small-business-or-the-economy
• Greg Jericho on australian-budget-2016-the-graphs-you-need-to-see , how-negative-gearing-replaced-the-great-australian-dream-and-distorted-the-economy , inflation-is-scarily-low-but-its-morrison-who-needs-to-act-not-the-rba , if-the-budget-was-the-governments-tax-white-paper-they-flubbed-it
• Trent Sainsbury on Budget-2016-How-well-does-the-Australian-Treasurer-understand-our-global-economic-context
• John Daley and Danielle Wood on three-critical-tests-for-budget-2016-how-does-it-fare
• Ken Parish on the-corporate-tax-cut-scam , asylum-seeker-policy-from-brutal-to-bizarre
• Nick Gruen on representing-a-public-interest-organisation-the-case-of-gillian-triggs
• Saul Eslake on super-and-personal-tax-tweaks-will-drive-more-people-into-the-property-market , essay-a-sober-responsible-budget-but-negative-gearing-a-blind-spot
• The Kouk  on labor-s-economic-record-is-better-than-the-coalition-s-and-they-must-make-it-count , budget-jobs-growth-investment-scott-morrison
• John Quiggin on polls-vs-punters-an-explanation

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on fed-tightening-more-reasons-to-go-slow
• Croaking Cassandra on reforming-the-fed-and-the-rbnz
• Timothy Taylor on us-suicide-rates-rising , us-health-care-in-international-context , falling-job-tenure
• Kruggers on recovery-cockroaches
• Simon Wren-Lewis on ben-bernanke-and-democratic-helicopter-money
• Nate Silver on why-republican-voters-decided-on-trump , the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support
• Jared Bernstein on the-productivity-slump-and-what-to-do-about-it Thanks Mark
• Simon Porter on Monetery policy post crisi.What have we learned Thanks Mark
• John Robertson on whats-behind-the-recent-uptick-in-labor-force-participation
• Brad De Long on this-is-extraordinarily-unprofessional
• Noah Smith on brad-delong-pulpifies-cochrane-graph
• Daniel Little on hofstadter-on-american-right Thanks Mark
• Mark Thoma on payroll-number-lower-than-expected-but-trend-holds-at-200000

Europe

• John Williams on leicester-city-are-football-champions-of-england-im-tearful-incredibly-proud-and-full-of-envy also Chris Dillow on nobody-knows-anything
• Andrew McCathie on Testing-times-for-Angela-Merkel
• Chris Dillow on labours-ant-semitism-problem
• Francesco Saraceno on on-the-importance-of-fiscal-policy Thanks Mark
• Tony Yates on the-may-boe-inflation-report-policy-decision-and-brexit
• Lord Keynes on the-hysteria-over-ken-livingstone
• Simon Wren-Lewis on the-eurozone-recovery

Asia

• Narayana Kocherlakota on a-cure-for-japan-s-inflation-deficit
• Robert E Kelly on The-huge-strange-coalition-opposed-to-an-Obama-apology-at-Hiroshima
• Roger Shanahan on Syria-Whats-in-a-name
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-exports-exchange-rates-and-the-return-on-chinas-investments
• Casper White on Unrest-in-Egypt-Island-transfer-to-Saudi-Arabia-touches-raw-nerve
• Brendan Thoma-Noone on Peoples-Liberation-Army-ups-its-recruitment-game
• Abhijt Singh on The-shifting-contours-of-Chinas-maritime-strategy
• Merriden Varrall on Real-danger-in-South-China-Sea-is-reiterating-assumptions-until-they-become-truth
• Samir Saron and Anhijajn Rej on Why-policy-short-sightedness-may-be-exacerbating-Indias-water-crises

Wonk

• Barkely Rosser on the-legacy-of-joan-robinson
• Progrowth liberal on joan-robinson-and-beggar-thy-neighbor, the-microfoundations-of-weeds-in-garden-model
• Simon Wren-Lewis on neoliberalism, can-governments-offset-helicopter-money
• David Andolfatto on monetary-policy-implications-of-blockchain-technology , on-cochranes-dream-of-equity-financing, why-blockchain-should-be-familiar-to-you
• Nick Rowe on adding-more-periods-to-the-diamond-dybvig-model-fear-of-illiquidity-not-insolvency
• David Beckworth on the-poisoned-chalice-of-macroeconomic-policy
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-where-is-heading-global-economic-growth
• Tim Harford on could-an-income-for-all-provide-the-ultimate-safety-net
• Kevin O'Rourke on the-davos-lie
• Kruggers on real-exchange-rates-and-european-adjustment
• Nick Rowe on helicopter-money-and-the-non-observance-of-two-counterfactual-conditionals
• Chris Dillow on the-errors-of-the-oppressed
• David Glasner on whither-conservatism
• Antonio Fatas on world-growth-mediocre-or-pathetic

General

• Lorenzo on the-perfect-soldiers , not-coping-with-the-diversity-of-the-real

Climate

• Climate code Red on arctic-sea-ice-is-falling-off-cliff-and-it-may-not-survive-the-summer
• Tamino on cooling-america
• Rabett run on christy-and-mcnider-fall-into-warming-hole
• Variable variability on christy-mcnider-time-series-summer-surface-temperature-alabama
• Arctic sea ice blog on cryosat-2-confirms-sea-ice-volume-is-low
• And then theres physics on maybe-we-really-are-screwed , a-tmin-bias
• Robert Stavins on misleading-talk-about-decoupling-co2-emissions-and-economic-growth Thanks Mark

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• controlling-for-variation-in-the-weather-in-a-regression-analysis
• i-disagree-with-what-this-guy-wrote-at-retraction-watch
• are you pro or anti biotics
• ahhhh-ppnas
• im-all-out-of-clever
• a-template-for-future-news-stories-about-scientific-breakthroughs
• null-hypothesis-a-specific-random-number-generator
• npr-bites
• Daniel Little on predicting-forecasting-and-superforecasting Thanks Mark

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• my-latest-paper-about-dummy-variables
• Menzie Chinn on identities-parameters-and-regressions
• Marc Bellamare on estimating non-linear relationships
• No Hesitations on on-forecasting-variation-and-covariation

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• upward-bound , poetry-in-statistics
• Jane Williams on health-check-does-the-g-spot-exist
• Timothy Taylor on khrushchev-economics-does-not-respect-ones-wishes

Vox wonk

• firms-financial-strength-and-return-rd
• /ripples-of-risk
• business-cycle-synchronisation-and-bretton-woods-nostalgia
• output-gaps-and-unemployment-age-and-gender
• why-european-women-have-few-babies
• completing-eurozone-banking-union
• macropru-policy-switzerland
• reinforcing-eurozone-and-protecting-open-society
• fdi-premium-eu-membership
• real-explanation-feldstein-horioka-puzzle
• eu-refugee-bonds
• consumption-propaganda-venezuela
• what-brexit-surveys-really-tell-us