Around the Traps 1/4/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Andreras Pekarek and Peter Gahan on how-unions-are-changing-in-a-bid-for-relevance-and-survival
• Cameron Webb on new-mosquito-threats-shift-risks-from-our-swamps-to-our-suburbs
• Ben Eltham onarthur-sinodinos-and-the-coalitions-probity-problem-how-not-to-start-an-election-campaign
• Ross Gittins on the-economy-rests-on-christian-foundations
• Kevin Bonham on 2016-federal-election-seats-model-what-2PP-vote-does the ALP-need-to-win
• Marilyn McMahon on how-far-can-you-go-to-lawfully-protect-yourself-in-a-home-invasion
• Gary Mortimaer on woolies-private-label-strategy-will-play-directly-into-the-hands-of-aldi
• Rod Lamberts on ban-new-wind-turbines-not-if-the-bar-for-declaring-them-safe-is-impossibly-high
• Brian Dollery on do-mergers-make-for-better-councils-the-evidence-is-against-bigger-is-better-for-local-government
• Croaking Cassandra on kiwibank , universitiesexport-education-and-migration , governance-of-the-reserve-bank-an-inadequate-release
• Ad Astra on where-are-the-crooks
• The Kouk on property-versus-stocks-which-has-performed-better-for-aussies
• Paul Kildea on turnbulls-plan-to-fix-the-federation-is-bold-but-can-he-deliver
• Rodney Maddock on why-income-taxing-states-is-australias-best-april-fools-joke-ever
• Andrew Carr on Was-Abbott-right-on-national-security
• Thomas the Think Engine on data-fueled-geelong-taking-it-several-weeks-a-time
• Peter goss and Julie Sonnman on split-funding-idea-for-schools-has-big-risks-and-few-clear-benefits

Northern America

• Carola Binder on congressional-attention-to-monetary-policy-over-time
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-oil-inflation-expectations-and-credibility
• Timothy Taylor on affordable-care-act-costs-of-expanding-coverage
• Calculated Risk on real-prices-and-price-to-rent-ratio-in-January
• Frances Woolley on what-is-employment-insurance-for
• Narayana Kocherlakota on ask-trump-and-clinton-about-the-fed
• Kruggers on obamacare-on-track
• Brad De Long on globalization-not-to-blame-for-stagnant-us-incomes Thanks Mark
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-yellen-pivots-toward-saving-her-legacy

Europe

• Chris Dillow on costs-of-daylight-savings-time , the-eu-as-qwerty-keyboard , austerity-vs-the-free-market
• Simon Wren-Lewis on why-high-house-prices-are-partly-down-to-austerity , when-media-is-biased-against-facts
• Coppolla Comment on the-unaffordable-george
• Mark the Ballot on good-polling-dont-come-cheap

Asia

• Andrew Seith on Democracy-in-Myanmar-Who-can-claim-victory
• Claude Rakisits on Pakistans-bloody-Easter-Sunday
• Malcolm Cook on Mugabe-in-Tokyo-The-warping-of-Japanese-foreign-policy
• Menzie Chinn on china-trade-policies-the-nuclear-and-near-nuclear-options
• Robin Jeffrey on indian-pm-risks-political-backlash-if-plan-to-build-1-5-million-toilets-fails
• Helen Clark on VIetnam-jails-bloggers-Latest-chapter-in-a-sorry-(and-failed)-saga-of-internet-censorship

Wonk

• Steve Wothington on negative-interest-rates-are-there-any-positives
• Simon Wren-Lewis on fiscal-rule-redux , austerity-and-mainstream-for-record , helicopters-are-easy-to-fly , the-big-story-behind-port-talbot
• Roger Farmer on idiopathic-tardus-augmenti
• David Andolfatto on is-bitcoin-safe-asset
• James Hamilton on uber-efficiency
• Nick Gruen on mainstream-radical-centrists-where-are-they
• Timothy Taylor on the-economics-of-pandemic-preparedness
• Chris Dillow on barriers-to-equal-respect
• Cecchetti and Schoenhlotz on making-markets-safe-the-role-of-central-clearing
• Narayana Kocherlakota on the-trouble-with-predictions  Thanks Mark
• Dietrich Vollrath on Savings-Redux Thanks Mark
• Barkley Rosser on tropical-mathematics-and-classical-economics
• Antonio Fatas on central-banks-need-to-get-real-not-nominal
• David Glasner on whats-so-great-about-free-trade
• Robert Waldmann on dynamic-inefficiency
• Anatole Kaletsky on next-phase-for-democratic-capitalism Thanks Mark
• Nick Rowe on the-neo-fisherian-counterfeiter
• Kruggers on remembrances-of-depression-economics

General

• DoverBeach on oderberg-explains-why-peter-singer-is-wrong
• Ken Parish on the-death-of-newspapers-does-it-matter
• Frances Woolley on how-vancouver-escaped-the-freeway-curse
• Timothy Taylor on grade-inflation-update-as-rule , the-economics-of-daylight-savings-time
• Helen Forgazs on single-sex-vs-coeducational-schools-how-parents-can-decide-the-best-option-for-their-child
• Doverbeach on if-abortion-were-a-crime
• Ann Aly on the-new-breed-of-terrorists-criminals-first-islamists-second
• Brendon Thomas-Noone on How-powerful-is-ISIS

Climate

• David Appell on nsidc-arctic-sets-yet-another-record-low
• Cassandra Legacy on the-climate-wars-trench-warfare-or-blitzreig
• What's Up with THat Watts Et al on climate-models-broken-and-unreliable
• Bob Henson on here-comes-la-niaor-does-it-what-history-models-and-experts-tell , longest-coral-bleaching-event-on-record-continues-to-hammer-reefs , a-50day-heat-wave-forecast-and-the-future-of-subseasonal-to-seasonal
• Arctic sea ice blog on 20152016-winter-analysis
• Skeptical Science on dangerous-gw-sooner-than-thought
• Tamino on global-warming-basics-loaded-dice , february-2016-global-surface-temperature-anomalies-were-highest-on-record-according-to-the-ukmo
• David Zetland on life-is-about-to-get-much-worse
• Hotwhopper on a-longer-view-of-arctic-sea-ice-1953-to-now
• Ed Hawkins on a-world-before-ice
• Graham Readfearn on how-the-2016-coral-bleaching-unfolded-on-australias-great-barrier-reef

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly stats)

• rbitrary-standards 
• what-is-a-republican
• hes-looking-for-bayesian-time-series-examples
• lottery-is-evil
• numbers-good-true-thanks-obama
• greshams-law-of-experimental-methods
• in-the-biggest-advance-in-applied-mathematics-since-the-most-recent-theorem-that-stephen-wolfram-paid-for

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• who-was-shirley-almon
• my-new-paper

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• can-the-welfare-state-survive , computing-the-british-way , mens-studies
• Clive Crook on mervyn-king-writes-the-book-on-radical-uncertainty Thanks Mark
• Doverbeach on weekend-reading

Vox wonk

• targeted-transfers-and-empowerment-women
• why-only-some-credit-booms-end-crises
• multinationals-and-female-employment-japanese-evidence
• public-debt-low-income-countries-risks-and-opportunities
• us-gains-investment-banking-implications-europe
• implications-shale-oil-arab-producers
• money-and-inflation-us-2008-vs-german-1920s
• labour-laws-strict-rules-are-correlated-weak-enforcement
• royal-economic-society-s-panel-brexit
• article/rethinking-measurement-economic-activity
• conquest-israeli-inflation-its-benefits-and-current-policy-dilemmas
• role-virtual-proximity-international-finance

The Football season cometh

Football starts on the weekend.
I am refereeing again but I suspect it could be my last season. My oldest son is going for his Level 3 course and I hope to see him referee some Premier League reserve games this season.
He is actually very good so I am looking forward to see how far he progresses and how good he becomes.

My youngest son both plays and referees . This means there are always car issues.This could prove interesting.

Finding the time to referee, watch one on my sons play football and the other referee. Saturday is going to be very busy during winter!

Can The ALP win the next election?

What a lot of people do not realise is that for the ALP to win the next election they will need to get almost 52 % of the 2PP vote!

The brilliant Kevin Bonham explains.

It was a reasonable ask when Tony Abbott was doing his pathetic excuse for acting as PM however given we now have an adult in charge it does look a tall order!

72 has some old but enjoyable viewing

In Sydanee we have several free to air networks. One is channel 7.

 72 is one of the channels the 7 network has and purely by chance I got to watching some shows on the channel and also by chance I got to watch more. Here are my thoughts on some.

A Touch of Frost. an oldie but a goodie. Jack Frost ( I kid you not) is a liable Detective Inspector. Has had some fine guest stars along the way such as Philip Jackson of Poirot fame.

Endeavour  A really great show showing the young Inspector Morse in action. Much much better than Morse.

The Last Detective. Peter Davison known for All Creatures Great and Small and Doctor Who is fantastic as a old fashioned but honest detective.

Jonathan Creek. I saw bits of this on Channel 2 at first but i have started to watch this from the beginning and still enjoyable.

The Inspector Lynley Mysteries. A man of noble means joins the police force and has a working class gal as a partner. Enjoyable to view.

Judge John Deed  . Over-rated. Never thought much of Martin Shaw as an actor. He as a lefty high court judge with title who beds almost any woman he meets was simply ridiculous. Passed up after a few episodes.

Murdoch Mysteries  No not why an elderly unattractive man keeps on getting married but a Canadian detective in the late 19th century in Toronto Canada, Only problem is the half hour episodes. Not long enough to develop the theme.

Inpsector Morse.  Like Martin Shaw I never has time for John Thaw as an actor however his sidekick Lewis made the series for me.

Lewis. He gets his own series and it is really enjoyable. his offsider studied theology at Oxford and is quite the intellectual and  poor socially but they make a great team. Still like viewing the repeats.

The Indian Doctor. An Indian doctor turns up in a welsh village. Interesting series and his wife is a stunner!

The Resurrection is essential

Easter is the most important point of the Calendar for Christians.

It is so because if it never occurred then Christianity is a complete fraud.
Jesus could rise from the dead because he was without sin. To do this he had to be God ( without sin) and be man ( represent mankind).
Thus his death on the cross was the punishment for all sinners whom believe in him.
We know this occurred because he walked around for 40 days so we have heaps of eyewitnesses. We also knew this because the Jewish elite who hated Jesus would have been shown him to be dead and thus killed off ( pun intended) this subversive sect as they saw it.
Because of the many eyewitnesses they could not do this.
We also have the radical change in behaviour of his apostles. When he dies on the cross they were scared, hid from the Authorities etc. Once they confirmed the resurrection they completely changed. They were willing to die for him!

One last thing. He dies on Friday the first day and rose from the dead on the third day, The first day of the week ( not the Sabbath) Sunday.
I see some people like to the first day is not the first but day 0.

Sunday is not day 0 of the week but day 1.

Around the Traps 25/3/16 Good Friday Edition

It is time for Around the Traps. Brussels articles in Europe section.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie

• Croaking Cassandra on the-inquiry-into-the-possible-ocr-leak , no-prime-minister , central-bank-communications , cross-party-support-for-high-immigration-policies , a-dairy-stress-test , a-not-very-straightforward-backdown-by-the-reserve-bank
• John Freebairn on explainer-how-company-versus-personal-tax-cuts-boost-the-economy
• Glenn C Savage on should-we-change-the-way-we-measure-student-progress-in-schools
• Adam Webster on explainer-what-are-double-dissolution-elections-and-why-might-we-soon-have-one
• Sam Roggeveen on Brussels-Dont-let-ISIS-bully-us-into-more-airport-security
• Perter Martin on revealed-56-australian-millionaires-who-pay-no-tax
• Ken Parish on proroguing-parliament-double-dissolution-elections-and-other-constitutional-delights , on-mooted-high-court-challenges-to-senate-voting-reforms
• Nic Gruen on crowdsourcing-credentials
• Mark the Ballot on updated-aggregation
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-and-seat-betting-watch-and-they're-off
• Ross Gittins on business-and-customers-pay-for-bad-behaviour
• Yee-Fui Ng on choppergate-no-more-what-the-review-of-politicians-entitlements-will-mean
• Leon Berkelsman on China-and-Australia-How-closely-linked-are-our-economies-really
• Andrew Elder on ever-decreasing-circles
• Greg Jericho on the-budget-is-coming-so-standby-for-talk-of-ordinary-australians-who-are-these-people
• Helen Lingard on construction-workers-safer-when-they-ditch-the-manual-study
• Ad Astra on the-peter-principle-again-has-the-government-reached-its-level-of-incompetence

Northern America

• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-february-existing-home-sales , comments-on-february-new-home-sales
• Helen Brown on Two-nights-in-Havana-Obamas-historic-rumba-with-Cuba
• Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar on obamacare-not-economic-recovery-responsible-increase-health-care-coverage Thanks Brad
• Livio De Matteo on federal-budget-2016-quick-comment
• Noah Smith on how-to-actually-redistribute-respect
• Narayana Kocherlakota on the-fed-s-misunderstood-dots
• Brad De Long on why is the CBO concocting a false debt crisis, must read on Bernstein and Speilberg , must-read-bruce-bartlett. Republican Presidents always disappoint.
• David Andolfatto on does-fed-have-credibility-problem
• Tony Yates on bloomberg-getting-dotty
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-on-credibility

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on lack-of-accountability , budget-accounting-tricks , time-to-rewrite-bit-of-oral-history
• colm McCarthy on the-ecbs-inflation-target
• Chris Dillow on salience-obliquity , no-friend-of-the-worst-off , the-death-of-politics
• Marie McCauliffe on EU-Turkey-deal-Coming-to-terms-with-the-appification-of-migration
• Fiona De Londrass on brussels-terror-attacks-a-continent-wide-crisis-that-threatens-core-european-ideals
• Frederic Lemieux on brussels-attacks-how-radicalization-happens-and-who-is-at-risk
• Steve Hewitt on brussels-attacks-a-throwback-to-pre-9-11-terrorism
• Emma Connors on Brussels-bombings-Intelligence-agencies-knew-some-but-not-enough
• Martin Conway on the-bitter-fruits-of-alienation-belgiums-struggle-is-the-problem-of-our-age
• Julian Oeulllet on Things-fall-apart-the-centre-cannot-hold-Brussels-attacks-expose-Belgiums-faultlines
• Lazar Stankov on brussels-attacks-why-do-family-members-commit-terrorism-together
• Peter Knoope on Brussels-President-Hollande-calls-this-a-war-but-what-is-the-war-about

Asia

• Michael Cohen on China-Between-US-sanctions-and-North-Korea
• Nouriel Roubini on are-we-heading-for-another-global-financial-crisis
• Stephen Grenville on Rebalancing-Chinese-growth-Tougher-challengers-may-lie-elsewhere
• Anthony Bubalo on The-Middle-East-in-2016-(part-4)-focus-on-governance-not-provenance , The-Middle-East-in-2016-(part-5)-Cultivating-order

Wonk

• Rajiv Sethi on does-market-microstructure-matter Thanks Mark
• Nick Rowe on stag-hunt-and-the-money-problem
• Noah Smith on new-paradigms-in-economic-theory-not-so-fast , rigid-patent-laws-pose-risk-of-a-new-dark-ages , inflating-asset-bubbles-spread-like-a-zombie-virus
• Tony Yates on solving-deflation-with-a-monetary-starting-over , rajans-pie-in-the-sky , joining-the-dots
• Timothy Taylor on eliminate-high-denomination-bills , the-next-big-m&a-boom-is-here, is-essence-of-globalization-shifting , dissecting-concept-of-opportunity-cost
• James Hamilton on recent-moves-in-oil-prices
• Mark Thoma on mmt-and-mainstream-macro
• Simon Wren-Lewis on mmt-and-mainstream-macro , is-evidence-based-policy-left-wing
• Charles Carlstrom and Timothy Fuesrst on the-natural-rate-of-interest-in-taylor-rules
• Tim Harford on capital-ideas-in-a-time-of-inequality
• David Andolfatto on secular-stagnation-then-and-now
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-inequality-diagnoses-and-prescriptions
• Nick Rowe on conceptually-costing-basic-income
• Peter Dorman on why-declining-oil-prices-can-be-contractionary
• Narayana Kocherlakota on helicopter-money-won-t-provide-much-extra-lift, clarification
• Frances Woolley on economics-cant-be-encapsulated-into-knowledge-pills-and-that-matters-for-research-funding

General

• David Andolfatto on mabel-frances-timlin-1891-1976

Climate

• Ove Hoegh Guldberg and Tyrone Ridgeway on coral-bleaching-comes-to-the-great-barrier-reef-as-record-breaking-global-temperatures-continue 
• Mario Herrero on to-reduce-greenhouse-gases-from-cows-and-sheep-we-need-to-look-at-the-big-picture
• Variable Variability on cooling-moves-of-urban-stations
• John Abraham on worst-mediterranean-drought-in-900-years-human-fingerprints-all-over-it
• dana1981 on current-record-shattering-temps-shocking-to-climate-scientists
• Tamino on sea-smoke-and-mirrors
• and Then There's Physics on extreme-events , reblog-on-hansen-et-al
• Katrin Meissner and Kaitlin Alexander on mass-extinctions-and-climate-change-why-the-speed-of-rising-greenhouse-gases-matters
• Moyhu on climate-and-statistical-forecasting

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)

• my-quick-answer-is-that-i-would-analyze-all-10-outcomes-using-a-multilevel-model
• noise-noise-noise-noise-noise
• in-defense-of-endless-arguments
• Multi-level regression
• data dependant prior as an approximation to hierachical model
• Daniel Davies on evidence-based-policy-and-the-replicability-crisis
• Kaiser Fung on sitting-still-against-the-myth-that-sitting-kills

Genial Dave Giles (Econometrics)

• midas-regression-is-now-in-eviews
• orgtheory on statistics-vs-econometrics-heckmans-approach Thanks Jim rose
• Marc Bellamare on what to do with repeated cross-sections

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• people-and-property-prices , its-all-about-the-students

Vox wonk

• understanding-macropru-four-rationalities
• offshoring-ceo-pay-and-organisation-firms
• decline-high-growth-entrepreneurship
• long-run-employment-effects-minimum-wage
• family-size-and-education-india
• income-inequality-and-income-mobility
• credit-where-rd-tax-credit-s-due
• causes-eurozone-crisis-nuanced-view
• new-cepr-press-ebook-moving-innovation-frontier
• mandatory-credit-registries-and-bank-loan-quality
• hidden-victims-global-crisis
• completing-maastricht-20-safeguard-future-eurozone
• misnomers
• financial-market-wrongdoing-fines-vs-reputational-sanctions
• causes-and-consequences-china-s-shadow-banking

Poll Update

Kevin Bonham on the latest polls.
Added bonus for wonks. Mark the Ballot.

A double dissolution?

Well it appears Malcolm Turnbull surprised a lot of people with is recall of parliament after it was prorogued. Rather strange if these two bills are so important the government did not bring up their importance when Parliament was sitting.

M'Lord Parish writes about this here.Also read his thoughts on this as well.

It seems to me if the Opposition is determined they could easily make it hard for the finance bills to go through both houses.
On this and other related items see Antony Green. Here and here.
A good explainer here as well.

I have to say I do think most people will not change and any Government will not have a majority in the Senate. If Nick Xenophon has a ticket in NSW then I shall be voting for that. I shall vote for the Liberals again in the lower house despite a deplorable candidate and then vote for the ALP in the election after that assuming they lose this one.

Turnbull great weakness is he can be too smart by half , Add his shocking political judgement then the election could well be more interesting than most think.

Around the Traps 18/3/16

It is time for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on reflecting-on-the-mps-and-the-reserve-bank , inflation-expectations-according-to-the-rb , setting-interest-rates-no-need-to-change-the-system , a-strange-op-ed-from-a-business-lobby-group , some-idling-on-the-money-supply
• Harry Clarke on scrapping-compulsory-super
• Stephen Duckett on the-problems-with-australias-hospitals-and-how-they-can-be-fixed
• Grant Wardell-Johnson on ecocheck-australias-southwest-jarrah-forests-have-lost-their-iconic-giants
• Peter Van Duyn on transport-outlook-larger-companies-will-survive-global-economic-downturn-and-slowdown-in-mining
• Peter Sivey on how-much-seeing-private-specialists-often-costs-more-than-you-bargained-for
• Sandra Van Der Laan on shane-warne-foundation-not-alone-in-charity-spending-ambiguity 
• Ross Gittins on lets-reform-lack-of-satisfaction-at-work
• Antony Green on senate-electoral-reform-double-dissolutions-and-section-64-of-the-constitution
• Greg Jericho on what-issues-will-be-front-and-centre-of-the-economy-election
• John Quiggin on political bourbonism 
• Craig Anderson on how-predictable-are-australias-big-sporting-leagues
• Shumi Akhtar and Farida Akhtar on retail-outlook-big-retailers-feel-the-pressure-of-new-challengers
• Caron Beaton-Wells on the-government-goes-the-full-harper-on-competition-now-for-sanctions
• Helen Dickinson on why-do-we-wait-so-long-in-hospital-emergency-departments-and-for-elective-surgery
• Jane Hall and Kees Van Gool on heres-how-to-boost-hospital-funds-and-end-the-blame-game
• Ross Gittins on lets-reform-lack-of-satisfaction-at-work
• Mark the Ballot on dd-redux , ipsos-53-47-and-rant-on-polling
• Antony Green on senate-electoral-reform-double-dissolutions-and-section-64-of-the-constitution
• Ken Wolf on on-which-leg-does-the-liberal-party-stand
• Peter Martin on expect-great-things-from-turnbulls-first-budget
• Stephen King on changes-to-competition-laws-may-hurt-consumers
• Carl Rhodes on command-and-control-banks-have-got-ethics-and-culture-all-wrong
• Karen Willis and Sophie Lewis on what-are-better-public-or-private-hospitals
• The Kouk on the-doomsayers-are-wrong-our-debt-is-well-regulated-and-sound , which-side-of-politics-is-the-better-economic-manager
• Lara Moroko and Sarah Duffy on trashing-the-brand-anz-and-cba-could-pay-a-high-price-for-choosing-profit-over-people
• Tim Trudgian on why-a-drop-in-unemployment-doesnt-add-up-literally

Northern America

• Roger Farmer on why-fed-should-raise-rates-and-purchase-more-assets
• David Glasner on justice-scalia-and-the-original-meaning-of-originalism
• Ed Dolan on the-great-bipartisan-war-on-free-trade Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on far-left-far-right-protectionist-dreams
• Simon Williams on gun-control-in-america-by-the-right-and-wrong-numbers
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-february-housing-starts , key-measures-show-inflation-sligthly-2%-in-February
• David Beckworth on fed-commentary
• Tim Duy on stanley-fischer-and-lael-brainard-are-battling-for-yellen-s-soul Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-did-the-markets-overlook-fed-bullishness-in-the-march-16-fomc-statement

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on the-question-that-was-not-asked , its-politics-stupid
• David Beckworth on ecb-stimulus-in-perspective
• Chris Dillow on labours-credibility-problem , how-to-write-a-budget , the-incumbency-advantage
• Tim Harford on these-are-the-sins-we-should-be-taxing , a-modest-proposal-lets-just-abolish-the-budget
• Tony Yates on we-should-long-for-fiscal-policy-and-budgets-to-be-boring , instrument-forecasts-for-the-fed-hmt-but-not-the-boe, douglas-carswell-brexit-and-the-boes-independence
• Leo Barasi on labour-polls-six-months-after-corbyn-became-leader

Asia

• David Warsh on The China shock and the Japan shock Thanks Mark
• Narayana Kocherlakota on the-real-reason-to-worry-about-china Thanks Mark
• Greg Lopez on Najib-Razak-Malaysian-PM-has-diminishing-room-to-manoeuvre
• Anthony Bubalo on The-Middle-East-in-2016-(part-2)-The-old-order-will-continue-to-decay
• Glenn Diesen on Russias-withdrawal-from-Syria-Mission-accomplished
• Anthony Bubalo on The-Middle-East-in-2016-(part-3)-Saudi-Arabia-Iran-and-the-economics-of-change

Wonk

• Simon Wren-Lewis on does-public-investment-have-to-pay-for-itself , mmt-not-so-modern
• Tony Yates on more-on-raising-the-inflation-target
• Timothy Taylor on a-fundamental-shift-in-nature-of-trade-agreements , automation-and-job-loss-fears-of-1927 , dynamic-pricing-uber-coca-cola-and-elswhere
• Jared Bernstein on the-era-of-free-trade-might-be-over-thats-a-good-thing Thanks Mark 
• Noah Smith on grading-king-yudkowsky , autor-on-econtalk , russ-roberts-and-new-empirical-world
• Nick Rowe on its-easier-to-have-a-sensible-fiscal-rule-with-an-ngdp-level-path-target
• Coppolla comment on understanding-balance-of-payments-crises
• Lord Keynes on early-reviews-and-critiques-of-marx-list , the-reality-of-economic-migration
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-a-tale-of-two-central-bankers
• Stephen Grenville on IMFs-new-debt-rules-not-vulture-proof

General

• Siobhan Banks and Crystal Grant on health-check-three-reasons-why-sleep-is-important-for-your-health
• Tim Harcourt on Zika-and-the-economics-of-epidemics
• Nial Wheate on weekly-dose-lipitor-the-highest-selling-drug-of-all-time
• Richard Callend on high-stakes-drama-as-south-african-president-and-finance-minister-square-off
• Ann Marie Balbi on Missing-in-action-Persuasive-counter-narratives-and-reasoned-discourse

Climate

• Felicity Graham etal on tipping-point-how-we-predict-when-antarcticas-melting-ice-sheets-will-flood-the-seas
• David Appell on holy-celsius-batman-gistemp-smashed
• hotwhopper on hottest-february-by-far-at-whopping-135-above-1950to1980-mean
• Tamino on surprise-but-not-shock , one-sentence-so-many-mistakes , noaa-record-heat-for-february , watts-up-with-that
• Jamrs Cleverly and Dereck Eamus on droughts-and-flooding-rains-it-takes-three-oceans-to-explain-australias-wild-21st-century-weather
• Real Climate on the-early-anthropocene-hypothesis-an-update
• Richard Telford on denying-the-undeniable-reality 
• Steve Sherwood and Stefan Ramsdorf on februarys-global-temperature-spike-is-a-wake-up-call
• and Then Theres Physics on ending-the-antagonistic-climate-debate
• Dana1981 on warming-since-1998-rebuttal-update
• Rob Honeycutt on 2climit-2016-02
• Sally Brown on what-drives-uncertainties-in-adapting-to-sea-level-rise
• Moyhu on noaa-global-feb-record-enso-comparison

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• recently-in-the-sister-blog
• how-should-statisticians-and-economists-think-about-recreational-gambling
• lack-of-free-lunch-again-rears-ugly-head
• a-pure-bayesian-or-pure-non-bayesian-is-not-forever-doomed-to-use-out-of-date-methods-but-at-any-given-time-the-purist-will-be-missing-some-of-the-most-effective-current-techniques
• kalesan-fagan-and-galea-respond-to-criticism-of-their-paper-on-gun-laws-and-deaths
• i-definitely-wouldnt-frame-it-as-to-determine-if-the-time-series-has-a-change-point-or-not-the-time-series-whatever-it-is-has-a-change-point-at-every-time-the-question
• actually-id-just-do-full-bayes
• Kaiser Fung on how-do-you-react-to-a-probability-forecast , the-day-after-the-shock-pollsters-forecasters-scratch-their-heads

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• nuttin as yet

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• a-radical-gdp-rethink-needed , when-everything-is-a-platform, big-books-on-the-big-question , bringing-reason-to-readers
• Doverbeach on weekend-reading

vox wonk

• /capital-market-union-europe
• minimal-conditions-survival-euro
• balance-payments-statistics-and-hidden-assets
• denying-the-undeniable-reality
• perverse-effect-preferential-rules-origins
• moral-suasion-and-bond-buying-eurozone-crisis
• forms-and-sources-inequality-united-states

End of the Cricket Season

This weekend sees the end of the Cricket season for me.

I am umpiring in both the Junior and Senior finals. It is sad as I do enjoy umpiring.

It is interesting the I am more of a football fan than cricket fan yet I do not like refereeing but I do enjoy umpiring and being part of the committee for the local association.

I am hoping we get enough rain to have green wickets on the weekend and enough sun to dry the rain out.

It would make for difficult batting and umpiring but very enjoyable as well.

We shall see.

Global Warming basics

This is a tad old but Tamino did a great article on global-warming-basics-whats-has-changed.

If you have never ventured into the topic this is a great place to start.  

Mark the Ballot has a good rant

Mark the Ballot  has a very good rant on polling methodology being used here in OZ ( indeed anywhere). It is well worth reading.

thanks Mark!!

New England becomes interesting

The seat of New England held by Barnaby Joyce has become interesting for a number of reasons.

Last election no-one but no-one wanted to listen to Tony Windsor and why he thought the ALP should have been in government after the 2010 election. He was vilified for his decision.
After a few years of Tony Abbott being Prime minister He is now vindicated.

Both ex-ante and now ex-post his decision is seen as quite wise. the voters now seen they were wood-ducked on the last election. Joyce being one of the main people behind that.
Joyce is now deputy PM. He can't say I support this but the government went against me.People are also now seeing him as a carpet bagger now given he is not a local.

Life is becoming interesting particularly since Turnbull has lost his mojo.

Around the Traps 11/3/16

It is time for Around the Traps.  Stimulating article on the clitoris in the Dianne Coyle section!!
Updating on Saturday and Sunday nights as Cricket semi-finals are on.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Martin on negative-gearing-confused-by-economic-modelling , modeller-lauded-by-morrison-once-opposed-negative-gearing , why-state-governments-are-about-to-hike-taxes
• Ross Gittins on lets-stand-against-misleading-modelling
• Nicholas Gruen on the-ndis-there-but-for-the-grace-of-god-go-us-all
• Mark the Ballot on poll-update-no-2
• The Kouk on will-interest-rates-go-up-soon , off-the-table-gst-hike-to-the-never-never , duttons-warning-of-economic-armageddon-under-labor-is-embarrassingly-wrong
• Danielle Wood and John Daley on negative-gearing-changes-wont-drive-all-investors-from-the-housing-market-heres-why
• Pat McConnell on comminsure-case-shows-its-time-to-target-reckless-misconduct-in-banking
• Elfrem Castleinouvo on a-new-index-for-economic-uncertainty-nothing-to-fear-but-fear-itself
• Natalie Sambhi on Keeping-it-real-in-Australias-outlook-on-Indonesia
• Croaking Cassandra on two-unrelated-comments , really-just-the-bare-minimum , retail-interest-rates-and-the-ocr, inflation-forecast-errors
• Greg Jericho on superannuation-women-and-flexible-work-its-a-sad-state-of-affairs
• Andrew Elder on 2010-again, the-worst-kind-of-political-journalism
• Paul Oslington on pushing-back-against-the-politicisation-of-economic-modelling
• Antony Green on qa-open-post-for-questions-on-the-new-senate-electoral-system
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-how-far-will-turnbull-slide
• Jeffrey Knapp on the-ugly-story-of-dick-smith-from-float-to-failure
• Marc Hudson on how-climate-denial-gained-a-foothold-in-the-liberal-party-and-why-it-still-wont-go-away
• Nick Gruen on running-the-micro-parties-out-of-town
• The Political Sword on the-peta-principle-how-abbott-rose-to-the-level-of-his-incompetence

Northern America

• Noah Smith on sanders-fails-to-recognize-that-some-trade-is-good
• Menzie Chinn on spreads-and-recession-watch-march-2016
• Calculated Risk on update-labor-force-participation , demographics-renting-vs-owning , update-prime-working-age-population-growing-again
• Brad De Long on must-read-tim-worstall-Brookings-is-wrong-on-productivity
• David Remnick on behind-the-trump-phenomenon Thanks Brad
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-state-of-play
• Robert Vineberg on 25000-Syrian-refugees-in-four-months-How-did-Canada-do-it
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on connect-the-dots Thanks Mark
• Progrowth liberal on the-mundell-fleming-model-and-republican-economics
• Jhn Quiggin on repeal-taft-hartley

Europe

• Copolla Comment on a-german-spring
• Paul Fritjers on turkish-government-handsomely-rewarded-for-realpolitik
• Dereck Hogue on Brexit-Inside-the-UKs-think-small-mentality
• Simon Wren-Lewis on multipliers-from-eurozone-periphery, a-much-better-fiscal-rule
• Tony Yates on the-boe-and-the-brexit-debate
• Chris Dillow on expertise-in-politics
• Tim Harcourt on Should-I-stay-or-should-I-go-Europhobia-and-the-consequences-of-Brexit
• David Beckworth on ecb-stimulus-in-perspective
• Antonio Fatas on ecb-i-cannot-do-whatever-it-takes
• Francesci Saraseno on whatever-it-takes-cannot-be-in-frankfurt Thanks Mark

Asia

• Menzie Chinn on china-the-trilemma-and-reserves-again
• Jamal Kanj on defeating-israel
• Ben Bernanke and Peter Olsen on china-transparency  Thanks Mark 
• Arka Biswas on What-India-has-learnt-about-export-control-politics
• Casper White on As-threat-from-ISIS-in-Libya-grows-West-may-lose-sight-of-bigger-picture
• Noah Smith on finding-ideas-to-pick-up-where-abenomics-left-off
• microeconmic insights on why-is-labor-mobility-in-india-so-low
• Anthony Bubbalo on The-Middle-East-in-2016-(part-1)-Levantine-limbo
• Shahram Akbarzedeh on Iran-Pragmatist-dealmakers-in-ascent
• Peter Cai on The-Li-Keqiang-Index-is-dead-long-live-the-new-Li-Keqiang-Index 

Wonk

• Simon Wren-Lewis on the-strong-case-against-independent-central-banks , the-strong-case-critically-examined , austerity-past-and-future
• Peter Dorman on against-independent-central-banks-short-version
• David Andolfatto on alvin-hansens-secular-stagnation
• David Glasner on krugman-suffers-a-memory-lapse
• Chris Dillow on trump-not-seeing-luck , in-defence-of-some-economics, skill-vs-morality
• Noah Smith on the-folk-theory-of-business-cycles , elegant-economic-theories-get-shoved-aside-by-data
• Croaking Cassandra on immigration-and-productivity-spillovers
• Carola Binder on a-financial-fiscal-trilemma
• Sandwichman on tuckers-infallible-maxim
• Nick Rowe on new-keynesian-macro-when-all-output-is-consumer-durables
• Tim Harford on the-lost-leisure-time-of-our-lives
• Timothy Taylor on interview-with-emi-nakamura-price , for-women-higher-labor-force-participation-means-more-babiers, a-cross-national-view-of-health-care-systems , insights-on-infrastructure
• Olivier Blanchard on reality check for the world economy Thanks Brad
• David Beckworth on should-we-worry-about-global-economic
• Barry Eichengreen on monetary-policy-limits-fiscal-expansion Thanks Mark
• Barkley Rosser on varieties-of-neoliberalism Thanks Mark

General

• Geoffrey Dell on two-years-on-since-flight-mh370-disappeared-and-the-search-has-found-nothing-what-now
• Doverbeach on who-am-i-to-judge-politics-and-the-problem-of-moral-relativism
• James Heathers on maria-sharapovas-positive-drug-test-what-is-it-and-what-does-it-mean-for-her
• Zoe Hawkins on Antibiotics-The-persistence-of-resistance
• Olga Khazan on straight-men-and-lesbian-porn
• Julian Savulescu on sharapova-drugs-and-the-nature-bias
• Reema Rattan on how-can-we-understand-the-origins-of-islamic-state

Climate

• Tas Van Ommen on chasing-ice-how-ice-cores-shape-our-understanding-of-ancient-climate
• Agala Imielska and Blair Trewin on sydney-so-hot-right-now-whats-behind-the-citys-record-run-of-warm-weather
• Arctic sea ice blog on mad-max-beyond-thunderdome , giant-metaphor-crashes-through-the-ice , piomas-march-2016
• Andrew King and Mitchell Black on we-traced-the-human-fingerprint-on-record-breaking-temperatures-back-to-the-1930s
• Bryce Kelly and Charlotte Iverach on australias-coal-mines-are-pouring-methane-gas-into-the-atmosphere
• and Then There's Physics on guest-post-surface-and-satellite-discrepancy
• Peter Dorman on environmental-action-as-conversion
• Tamino on surface-or-satellite

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• The problem with P values
• smiley-faces-were-never-seen
• stan-in-open-data-science-blog
• bayesian-inference-for-network-links
• bruised-and-battered-i-couldnt-tell-what-i-felt-i-was-ungeneralizable-to-myself
• good-advice-can-do-you-bad
• statistics-is-like-basketball-or-knitting
• why-this-gun-control-study-might-be-too-good-to-be-true
• 0-05-is-a-joke
• Environmental economics on replication-vs-duplication-whats-the-difference Thanks Mark
• Marc Bellamare on comparing distributions redux
• Kaiser Fung on how-to-get-fired-the-data-scientist-edition , how-do-you-react-to-a-probability-forecast

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• Marc Bellamare on interpreting coefficients

Dianne Coyle  (quirky + book reviews)

• the-future-is-multiple-not-singular , stewardship-for-the-future,i-was-a-teenage-existentialist
• Jane Chalmers and Cat Jones on why-the-clitoris-doesnt-get-the-attention-it-deserves-and-why-this-matters
• Peter Sayer and Katie Lee on explainer-what-happens-to-your-skin-when-you-get-sunburnt
• doverbeach on weekend-reading

vox wonk

• stock-markets-wisdom-crowds-and-corporate-strategy
• media-attention-and-investment-decisions
• solutions-digital-trade-imbalance
• international-business-cycle-synchronisation-role-financial-linkages
• britain-s-eu-membership-alternative-views
• how-low-cost-labour-market-information-benefits-job-seekers
• trade-agreements-and-profits-new-evidence
• how-low-cost-labour-market-information-benefits-job-seekers
• bequests-and-wealth-inequality-evidence-denmark
• forward-looking-strategic-interactions-evidence-nba
• brief-history-human-time

What would a Trump Presidency look like?

I have been asked numerous times what a Trump presidency look like.
Some people have said since Trump is a deal maker he should be good in the Whitehouse.

Whoa there.
Business deals and political deals are two vastly different beasts. For one thing Trump is personally involved in his business deals whereas Presidents rarely get directly involved in political deals. He leaves that to his staff. Who would be his staff??

Who would be his :

• Chief of Staff
• Treasury Secretary
• Secretary of State

We do not know.

Therefore anyone who states quite confidently they know what a Trump presidency would like is simply lying through their teeth.

No-one knows and will not know until we know who would fill important posts in hiss Administration.

A Double Dissolution would be couragoues

It seems as though Malcolm wants a double dissolution.

The precedents are not good.
Consider the following:

• The precedents are not good . One only has to look at when Government changed in the northern Territory and Western Australia to see that.
• They have no reason. Do you know what the trigger is?
• The punters do not like going to the polls early. risky.
• The punters do not like voting in winter particularly if it is raining.
• Threatening a double dissolution when you are falling in the polls simply does not make sense.
• A long campaign is usually bad for the government. Ask Bob Hawke.
• You would need to bring on the budget earlier than usual. The ALP could make merry in Parliament and quite possibly deny the government the means to an early election.

Normally I would vote to keep the same Government but an early election would see me vote the opposite way.

What do I think will occur?  Turnbull has traditionally had poor judgement so?I thin he will go early.

Christians and Politics

I take the view if you are a Christian then there is no point going into politics unless you are going to be like William Wilberforce.

An ambitious Christian is an oxymoron. Joseph's conduct in Egypt is what Christians should aspire to in all aspects of life.

In recent times we have had in Australia John Howard, Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott all tell us very loudly how they were Christians.

However when I observe their conduct then I see little difference between them and Julia Gillard who most definitely was not a Christian.

This to me tells me if people who claim to be Christian go into politics then they succumb to worldly views very early and they always supersede biblical views.
Moreover the offices of both Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott were not known for working in a Christian environment.

Therefore it seems to me if a person is a Christian and wants to remain living to those views politics is most certainly not a place to go to.

Abbott/Credlin who cares?

In a new book it is alleged quite a few people believed Tony Abbott and Peta Credlin were having an affair. Steve from Brisbane has been banging on this for quite some time.

There have been rumours about Prime minsters having affairs outside marriage since Harold Holt was PM.

The only credence I would put on them is Holt, yes, Gorton and Hawke most definitely . all the rest no.

In a political sense who cares. I would agree their morality is shown to be of a very low ebb and of the three only Hawke was a good if not outstanding PM but in politics the only thing that matters is does it affect Australian polity.

to me what is important out of the book is that both Abbott and Credlin were at the time and still are utterly delusional.Abbott thinks he can do a Churchill. say no more.

It is important to note that each time Abbott make a public effort in recent times either to defend the government he led or criticise the present government he was shown to be utterly wrong whether it be the fiscal position or submarines.

When history is written the worst thing the ALP did in government was to allow Abbott to become the worst PM in our history ( or perhaps second worst after Bruce). It does show just how poor politicians they were,