Around the Traps 1/1/16 New Year Edition

It is time for Around the Traps in the New Year!

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Nick Gruen on political-debate-as-culture-wars-a-tripadvisor-for-the-arts
• Ross Gittins on profit-motive-drives-business-to-bend-rules
• Andrew Elder on dropping-the-penny
• Perter Martin on why-well-have-to-pay-polluters-to-stop-poluting-as-soon-as-possible
• John Quiggin on what-about-the-iceberg, what-the-unions-really-need
• The Kouk on the-kouk-s-top-11-for-2016 , morrison-s-lazy-fiscal-policy
• Mark the Ballot on  a-double-dissolution
• Kevin Bonham on polling-and-penalty-rates , 2015-site-review
• Andrew Elder on not-ready

Northern America

• Noah Smith on why-i-hate-skills-shortage-debate , don-t-blame-uncertainty-for-the-slow-recovery
• Calculated Risk on ten-economic-questions-for-2016
• James Hamilton on managing-the-feds-balance-sheet
• Kevin Drum on obamas-economic-performance-is-even-better-than-it-looks Thanks Mark
• Cecchetti and Scoenholtz on how-the-fed-tightened  Thanks Mark
• Brad De Long on musings-on-the-current-episteme-of-the-federal-reserve
• Menzie Chinn on the-year-in-review-2015-the-ascent-of-the-blowhard
• Carola Binder on did-main-street-expect-rate-hike
• Timothy Taylor on what-are-inventories-telling-us
• Richard Yeselson on the-return-of-the-1920s  Thanks Brad

Europe

• Robert Waldmann on nawru-iii-hysteresis, nawru-iv-long-term
• Simon Wren-Lewis on how-osborne-and-cameron-turned-crisis-into-disaster
• Chris Dillow on if-only-one-man-dies-of-hunger-that-is-a-tragedy-if-millions-die-thats-only-statistics-with-these-words

Asia

• nuttin
• Barkely Rosser on hersh-on-cia-vs-dia-over-syria-policy

Wonk

• Brad De Long on a-powerful-intellectual-stumbling-block-the-belief-that-the-market-can-only-be-failed, monday-delong-smackdown-larry-summers-on-how-we-know-more-than-we-write-down-in-our-lowbrow-or-highbrow-economic-models
• Larry Summers on thoughts-on-delong-and-krugman-blogs
• Kruggers on making-and-using-models
• Nick Rowe on tight-money-as-binding-output-quota , gross-output-and-monetary-disequilibrium , dont-blame-lack-of-cool-new-stuff-for-the-slow-recovery
• Davis Andalfatto on low-interest-rate-policy-and-secular-stagnation
• Noah Smith on four-charts-show-how-the-world-is-getting-better
• Timothy Taylor on secular-stagnation-update, response-to-krugman-more-on-secular,  eisenhower-on-opportunity-cost-of-war
• Tim Harford on an-economists-dreams-of-a-fairer-gig-economy
• Roger Farmer on why-bottle-of-beaujolais-is-not-same-as-a-CDO
• John Quiggin on do-we-need-a-global-tax-to-stop-rising-inequality-crosspost-from-crooked-timber-seminar-on-piketty
• Marrk Thoma on the-neo-fisherian-view-and-the-macro-learning-approach
• Chris Dillow on irving-berlin-on-taxes
• Nick Gruen on is-change-we-cant-theorise-change-we-can-believe-in-part-one

General

• Kevin Hartnett on posse-of-mathematicians-bridges-number-theory-and-geometry Yhanks Mark
• Cathy Moir on you-can-thaw-and-refreeze-meat-five-food-safety-myths-busted
• David Tuffet and Amy Antonio on five-traits-of-an-ethical-leader
• Jonti Horner and Tanya Hill on look-up-your-guide-to-some-of-the-best-meteor-showers-for-2016
• Nick Bunter on the-10-most-popular-value-added-posts-of-2015 Thanks Brad
• Ken Houghton on edward-hugh-rip

Climate

• Barkely Rosser on how-did-world-scientific-community-come-to-believe-that-global-warming-is-happening 
• What's up with that Watss et al on investigating-armstrong-claims
• Tamino on richard-lindzen-limited-understanding
• Greg Laden on weather-climate-change-and-related-matters-in-2015, highlights-of-climate-change-research-in-2015
• David Appell on antarctic-sea-ice-extent-is-tanking
• and Then There's Physics on 2015-in-review
• Arctic sea ice blog on north-pole-temperature-anomaly-big
• Rabbett run on watts-argument-is-that-denialist-claim
• John Abraham on strong-economics-of-wind-energy
• Skeptical science on 2015-in-review
• Simon Donner on why-we-need-next-to-impossible-15C-target
• Maddie Stone on temperatures-rose-above-freezing-at-the-north-pole-today  Thanks Brad
• Critical Angle on 2015-in-review-critical-angle-and-skeptical-science
• Jeff  Masters on earths-nine-category-five-storms-of-2015-2nd-most-on-record
• Moyhu on ncepncar-december-up-by-0108-highest-ever-again

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)

• there-are-6-ways-to-get-fired-from-johnson-johnson-1-theft-2-sexual-harassment-3-running-an-experiment-without-a-control-group-4-keeping-a-gambling-addict-away-from-the-casino-5-chapt
• citation shocker
• my-presentation-at-the-electronic-conference-on-teaching-statistics
• when-the-numbers-differ-in-the-third-decimal-place
• definitely-got-nothing-to-do-with-chess-iv
• why-researchers-keep-citing-retracted-papers
• a-complex-web-of-vested-interests-promote-calcium-and-vitamin-d-for-osteoporosis-despite-lack-of-evidence
• earlier-you-had-waxed-nostalgic-for-the-days-when-people-sent-you-bad-graphs

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• bounds-for-pearson-correlation-coefficient
• correlation-isnt-necessarily-transitive
• job-market-for-economics-phds
• requests-i-ignore
• .the-econometric-game-2016

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• most-popular-posts-of-2015 , the-rise-and-fall-of-american-growth
• scientists-on-their-favourite-science-fiction
• Keith Decandido on star-trek-the-original-series-rewatch-mirror-mirror  Thanks Brad
• run75441 on some-great-reads-on-a-wintery-night
• Lisa Williams on time-for-a-reset-how-to-make-your-new-years-resolutions-work
• Peter Dorman on short-stuff
• Harry Clarke on book-review-of-climate-shock 

Vox Wonk

•  on holidays

Fiscal consolidation.

I have written about fiscal consolidation quite a lot.

This is possibly the best.  This is earlier but still pretty good.

Let us go back to basics.

If you introduce austerity too quickly you will make the economy weaker.

Wayne Swan did this in the last budget he ever had responsibility for. He cut NOMINAL spending and detracted 0.7 percentage points from GDP.

Did this help strengthen the economy? No of course not.

So only a complete imbecile would advocate right! yes and that can only mean they have no knowledge of fiscal policy nor of history. Nasty stuff that peroxide!

Update:
I didn't think I had any need to say this but part of the problem is fiscal policy is far more powerful then we previously thought although Adam Posen showed this with Japan in the 90s a long time ago.

Also monetary policy loses a lot of potency as interest rates get to very low levels as Glen Stevens has ponted out and Wayne Swan found out to his chagrin!

Star Wars

I saw Star Wars yesterday with my two sons ( who have not seen the previous three movies.

I quite liked it. I thought it very similar to the original movie but not quite as good.

Hans Solo dying was off-putting.

Hasn't Carrie Fisher and Harrison Ford aged wheres Mark Hamill looked strange with a beard!

Recommended to watch.

The Replacement of the PM

The biggest thing that occurred in domestic politics was the replacement of Tony Abbott by Malcolm Turnbull.

Even though we all knew it would occur because we knew the Liberals did not have a political death wish we were caught by surprise. I was as I thought it might happen AFTER the by-election.

The Turnbull ascendancy immediately showed most people agreed. the Liberals went from being favourite to lose the next election to being favourites to winning the next election as first term Government normally do.

Bill Shorten went from being the next PM to being a normal Opposition leader after losing the last election i.e. always going to lose the next election. the zingers were no longer hitting home.
Despite some ( only some) impressive policy advances The Opposition is making no headway in the polls.
IMHO the major reason here is Tony Abbott putting his head up at regular intervals. The punters are simply sighing with relief this embarrassment is no longer PM and want to keep it that way.

Turnbull would have to do an 'Abbott' to lose the next election and unlike Rudd and Abbott he appears to have learnt from his previous mistakes.  He is certainly creating a lot of angst amongst the right wing brigade who can no longer pretend they speak for the masses!

2016 no longer appears interesting


Postscript:

Okay I should have said Abbott won a victory in the party room against no-one in January but was put on notice. Please note Turnbull had nought to do with this. Just very unhappy back-benchers. He did not improve if anything got worse and got replaced and he didn't know why!!  No self awareness either. i wonder if he is related to Katesy!

Drugs and Test Cricket

In the midst of a dreadful test series against a very poor West Indies side I hear the Pakistani leg spinner Shah has failed a drug test.
Sorry.

How does taking any drug help any bowler or batsman ion cricket. Sure it makes a difference in athletics, cycling but cricket?

Pray tell me how it works?  Please tell me how any drug can 'enhance' performance!

Don't any of these officials and administrators have any common sense?

Around the Traps 25/12/15 Christmas Day Edition

Around the Traps on Christmas!!

Merry Christmas to all!!

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Harry Clarke on company-tax-basics
• Ross Gittins on dont-worry-budget-plan-is-built-on-bracketcreep
• Croaking Cassandra on a-perspective-from-the-newly-released-model, exports-some-trans-tasman-comparisons, one-last-post-for-the-year
• Julia Horne on in-their-own-words-letters-from-anzacs-during-the-gallipoli-evacuation
• Andrew Elder on in-defence-of-ndis, going-in-too-hard
• John Quiggin on piketty-and-the-australian-exception, bracket-creep-how-to-get-the-answer-you-want , what-do-you-do-with-a-problem-like-adani
• Ben Eltham on the-political-tide-that-swept-tony-abbott-away
• The Piping Shrike on fabulousish
• Mark McKenna and Stuart Ward on an Anzac myth
• Kevin Bonham on 2015-ehrlich-awards-for-wrong-predictions

Northern America

• Noah Smith on an-immigrant-isn-t-going-to-steal-your-pay-raise
• James Hamilton on implementing-monetary-policy-in-2016
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-what-is-the-feds-expectation-for-financial-markets
• Timothy Taylor on how-mtvs-16-and-pregnant-reduced-teen-pregnancy
• Calculated Risk on a-few-random-comments-on-november-existing-home-sales,comments-on-november-new-home-sales, review-ten-economic-questions-for-2015
• Larry Summers on my-views-and-the-feds-views-on-secular-stagnation
• Kruggers on one-last-post-for-the-year
• Brad De Long on the-six-major-adverse-shocks-that-have-hit-the-u-s-macroeconomy-since-2005

Europe

• Chris Dillow on beyond-social-mobility
• Tony Yates on more-on-the-germans
• Robert Waldmann on nawru-1-totally-arbitrary-estimated-natural-rate-of-unemployment, nawru-iii-hysteresis Thanks Mark 
• Tony Yates on carney-will-he-stay-or-will-he-go, carneys-conduct-at-the-boe
• Simon Wren-Lewis on the-personal-debt-time-bomb, the-unique-blindness-of-some-commentators-on-the-right
• Bill Mitchell on Ireland and Austerity

Asia

• James Goldrick on China-and-the-sea-Will-it-come-to-prize-trade-flows-over-a-maritime-fortress

Wonk

• Croaking Cassandra on bits-and-pieces
• Noah Smith on macro-theory-vs-string-theory, cultural-appropriation-is-great
• Simon Wren-Lewis on exploring-one-set-of-reasons-why-austerity-happened, the-ftpl-version-of-neo-fisherian-proposition, woodfords-reflexive-equilibrium
• Roger Farmer on scott-sumner-and-musical-chairs
• Nick Rowe on upward-sloping-is-curves-after-miles-kimball ,upward-sloping-is-curves-simple-version , minimalism-and-recessions
• David Neumark on effects-of-minimum-wage-on-employment  Thanks Mark
• David Andolfatto on the-neo-fisherian-proposition, schumpeterian-growth-and-secular-stagnation, low-interest-rate-policy-and-secular-stagnation
• Antony Green on report-into-the-failure-of-polling-at-the-2015-uk-election
• Timothy Taylor on lithium-for-car-batteries-demand-shock, the-firm-as-time-lord
• David Glasner on the-free-market-economy-is-awesome-and-fragile
• Joshua Gans on how-to-generate-a-golden-age-tv-edition Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-emerging-markets-facing-higher-u-s-interest-rates-smooth-sailing-or-perfect-storm

General

• Stephen Bright on whats-happening-to-us-when-we-get-drunk
• Brendan Thomas-Noone on Merkel-and-Trudeau-on-terror-and-multiculturalism
• Timothy Taylor on does-marriage-help-children, charles-dickens-on-management-vs-labor, christmas-trees-real-vs-artificial
• Tim Harford on in-praise-of-scrooge
• Alan Duffy on space-in-2015-was-out-of-this-world
• David Watson on mistletoe-the-kiss-of-life-for-healthy-forests
• Ross Gittins on how-to-find-happiness-at-christmas
• Alan Duffy on space-in-2015-was-out-of-this-world

Climate

• Tamino on china-and-the-u-s-a, cruz-and-smith-subpoena-ice , natures-thermometer
• Artic sea ice blog on winter-solstice
• Skeptical science on why-climate-contrarians-are-wrong
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-paris-agreement-on-climate-change-cest-bon
• science of doom on renewables-xvii-demand-management-1
• Ria Misra on you-can-barely-even-see-yellowstones-largest-glacier-anymore Thanks Brad
• Climatecrock on yes-virginia-there-is-an-el-nino

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)

• a-replication-in-economics-does-genetic-distance-to-the-us-predict-development
• death-of-a-statistician
• once-i-was-told-to-try-every-possible-specification-of-a-dependent-variable-count-proportion-binary-indicator-you-name-it-in-a-regression-until-i-find-a-significant-relationship-that-is-it-no
• rapid-post-publication-review
• hes-skeptical-about-neuroskeptics-skepticism
• journalistic-lapses-at-the-new-york-times-should-in-effect-count-triple
• am-i-doing-myself-a-disservice-by-being-too-idealistic-in-a-corporate-environment
• more-on-the-pace-chronic-disease-syndrome-study-scandal
• turbulent-studies-rocky-statistics-publicational-consequences-of-experiencing-inferential-instability
• comment-of-the-week
• run74551 on probability

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• end-of-year-reading
• gretl-update

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky +  Book Reviews)

• the-rhetoric-of-economics-ctd , complements-and-substitutes , of-robots-and-dogs, robots-humans-and-other-animals
• Lowy-Institute-books-of-the-year-2015-part-4
• summer-reading-guide-from-the-conversations-economists
• holiday-message-team-vox-and-few-reading-suggestions
• Bob Eisenburg on calculus-and-the-rolling-stones
• Brad De Long on recommended-star-wars-viewing-order

Vox Wonk

• uncertainty-promotes-reform
• myth-40-pre-gatt-tariffs
• wealth-income-ratios-small-economies
• offshoring-and-wage-inequality
• understanding-evolution-japan-s-exports
• incentive-pay-and-top-executive-gender-gaps
• wto-lives-doha-round-does-not
• pikettys-book-and-macro-models
• italys-productivity-challenge
• economic-statistics-bean-report
• autumn-statement-and-charter-budgetary-responsibility
• economics-poverty
• medieval-champagne-fairs-lessons-development
• bargaining-tariffs-post-doha-wto-insights-research
• how-tpp-will-change-japanese-economy
• long-run-effects-scramble-africa
• exchange-rate-devaluations-when-they-can-work-and-why

Calculated Risk at its best

Calculated risk is a must read blog.

I got onto to it around 2007 and thus had the benefit of knowing what was av=bout to happen but not expecting the depth of such a collapse to erupt right around the world.
Here is Tanta  explaining to all the problems of sub-prime.

Please note it rarely included poor people who couldn't afford the mortgage. Research by the Fed and all  Regional Feds have backed up this eerily prescient article.

I should add the head of credit research at Colonial First State was very impressed with the blog once I introduced him to it. When he resigned to holiday around Australia he asked me again for it.

Driving Miss Daisy

I had to drive My mother back to Port Macquarie yesterday in the blinding rain.
I ( and my son) merely drove at 90 kilometres an hour because of the conditions.

Two things stood out.

We saw at least four bad accidents on dual carriage way. Very strange except most of the drivers drove as if it were NOT raining.

The economy our car did ( Hyundai I30) was about 4.2-4.4 as opposed to around 5.5 when driving at 110 kilometres an hour we usually do.

It is a bloody long drive though.

Budgetary Blues

When the Coalition won office they claimed they had inherited a deficit and debt disaster. The Deficit was according to PEFO 1.9% of GDP.
Through some decision they managed to increase this to 2.1% of GDP. We found out in MYEFO the deficit marginally has increased to 2.3% of GDP.
so in office they have managed to allow the deficit to get worse.

Amazing what occurs when the Terms of trade go the wrong way!

No sign of the Liberals wanting to match Wayne Swan and take 0.7 percentage points off GDP with the most austere budget on record, Thank the Lord for that.

Classical economics was always a complete crock

Around the Traps 18/12/15

It is time for Around the Traps again

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Stephen Grenville on How-Australia-can-use-economic-dipolmacy-to-get-closer-to-Asia
• The Kouk on what-a-turn-up-for-the-books-a-big-spending-big-taxing-liberal-party
• The Conversation on myefo-2015-government-adopts-more-realistic-economic-outlook-experts-react
• Mark the Ballot on aggregation-update-55-to-45
• Greg Jericho on its-the-revenue-stupid-with-no-apologies-to-scott-morrison
• Andrew Elder on between-two-stools
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-2015-year-in-review
• Ian McAuley on australian-government-revenue-slides-but-our-spending-rages-on
• Tony Wood on no-climate-policy-is-perfect-heres-how-to-choose-the-best-one
• Gabrielle Appleby on releasing-governments-advice-would-help-parliament-better-scrutinise-laws
• John Quiggin on a-quiet-word
• Allen Behm on Bull-red-or-otherwise-What-Greg-Sheridan-gets-wrong-about-religion-war-and-Duncan-Lewis
• Jeff Borland on lets-allow-parallel-book-imports-and-subsidise-australian-publishing
• Dereck Arnold on we-need-to-ditch-the-pink-ball-in-day-night-test-cricket
• Croaking Cassandra on why-new-zealand-languishes-2, immigration-convergence-and-history
• Ross Gittins on the-economys-doing-lot-better-than-the-budget
• John Daly sort of  on -australia-big-small-government Thanks Steve from Brisbane
• Tomas Fitzgerald on australias-plain-packaging-win-over-philip-morris-should-take-the-heat-off-isds

Northern America

• Croaking Cassandra on is-the-fed-risking-a-policy-reversal
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-makes-you-wonder-what-the-fed-is-thinking , fomc-preview-watch-the-dollar-and-oil, fed-watch-as-expected
• Cechetti and Schoenholtz on the-fed-from-forward-guidance-to-data-dependence Thanks Mark
• Calculated Risk on key-measures-show-inflation-close-to-2%-in-december, comments-on-november-housing-starts
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-u-s-monetary-expectations-and-emerging-market-debt-flows
• David Beckworth on the-fed-gets-what-it-wants
• run75441 0n african-americans-in-prison-and-sentencing-reform
• Larry Summers on what-should-the-fed-do-and-have-done Thanks Mark
• Edward Lambert on ncobras-unemp-slithers
• Timothy Taylor on saving-social-security-policy-menu
• Noah Smith on killing-entitlements-would-make-inequality-worse
• Carola Binder on rewriting-rules-federal-reserve-broad-stable-growth Thanks Brad

Europe

• Kruggers on adjustment-in-the-euro-area
• Simon Wren-Lewis on a-crisis-made-in-germany, read Tony then is-omt-bluff
• Tony Yates on the-eurozone-crisis-was-it-all-bad-german-economics

Asia

• David Beckworth on upgrading-to-abenomics-2.0
• Meriden Varrall on How-Chinas-world-view-is-manifested-in-South-China-Sea

Wonk

• Nick Rowe on switzerland-as-a-closed-end-mutual-fund-with-a-country-attached , money-demand-and-supply-in-a-redgreen-world, monetary-business-cycles-and-counter-cyclical-human-capital-investment
• Stephen Kinsella on redistribution-in-the-age-of-austerity
• Timothy Taylor on world-gdp-is-falling-if-measured-at-market-exchange-rates
• Chris Dillow on costs-of-under-confidence , intelligence-violence , marxs-theory-of-the-state-a-test
• John Quiggin on climate-change-and-the-culture-wars
• Lars P Syll on is-macroeconomics-for-real Thanks Brad
• Brad De Long on what-is-the-eccles-building-thinking-today-iii-the-mysterious-absence-of-paul-krugman-thought
• David Andolfatto on the-neo-fisherian-proposition
• Lukasz Rachel and Thomas D Smith on secular drivers of the global real interest rate 
• Kevin O'Rourke on critical-quarterly-columns
• David Glasner on keynes-on-the-theory-of-the-rate-of-interest

General

• Tim Harford on economics-still-a-job-for-the-boys
• Scepticlawyer on moral-sensibility-and-modernity

Climate

• Brad Plumer on paris-climate-deal-history Thanks Brad
• Robert Stavins on paris-agreement-a-good-foundation-for-meaningful-progress Thanks Mark
• Steffen Bohm on how-emissions-trading-at-paris-climate-talks-has-set-us-up-for-failure
• Katherine Lake onhow-will-carbon-markets-help-the-paris-climate-agreement
• Pep Canadell and Rob Jackson on the-paris-climate-agreement-the-real-work-starts-now
• John Connor on The-Paris-agreement-a-global-turning-point-requires-domestic-realignment
• David Appell on el-nino-seems-to-have-peaked, why-claim-of-no-warming-in-18-years-is-a-blatant-cherrypick
• and Then Theres Physics on consilience-of-the-evidence, pragmatism , forcing-efficacy, rcps-as-scenarios
• Moyhu on november-giss-down-by-only-001-on-October
• Critical Angle on nasa-november-temperature-update-the-heat-is-still-on
• IdiotTracker on gistemp-november-105c
• Mark Thoma on the-economic-hurdles-for-beating-global-warming
• Greg Laden on antarctic-ice-melting-tamsin-edwards-responds-to-richard-alley
• Tamino on november-temperature
• Myles Allen on can-we-hold-gw-to-1_5C
• Barkely Rosser on central-points-on-tax-versus-cap-and-trade 

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)

• jokull-snaebjarnarson-writes
• bayesian-decision-analysis-for-the-drug-approval-process
• mars-1-this-american-life-0
• gathering-of-philosophers-and-physicists-unaware-of-modern-reconciliation-of-bayes-and-popper
• tug of war
• Kaiser Fung on its-difficult-for-journalists-to-get-statistics-right-the-real-estate-edition

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• nutting as yet.

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + Book Reviews)

• bringing-ideas-to-the-world , holiday-reading , measuring-and-markets, cotton-empire-and-mill-workers
• Lowy-Institutes-books-of-the-year-2015-part-2, Lowy-Institutes-books-of-the-year-2015-part-31
• No Hesitations on superforecasting
• Annamarie Jagose on some-notes-on-the-female-orgasm-in-2015
• Natalie Mast on book-review-keating-by-kerry-obrien

Vox Wonk

• future-manufacturing-lies-services
• offshoring-and-unskilled-labour-demand-new-evidence
• measuring-success-economics
• immigration-fears-and-policy-uncertainty
• size-single-resolution-fund
• islamic-terrorism-and-assimilation-muslims
• basel-regulation-and-small-business-lending
• improving-cross-border-mobility-evidence-accountancy
• road-cop21
• economic-consequences-accused-politicians-india
• selective-immigration-policies-and-migrant-quality
• productivity-trends-asia-after-global-crisis

Islamic Terrorism and assimilation

There is a wonderful article at Vox wonk as I call it on the above topic.

It is well worth reading.

One of the findings is that terror attacks may well be calculated to reduce assimilation of muslins into Western society.

Food for thought.

MYEFO

well MYEFO was released yesterday.
There are opinions on it
Here,
Here,
Here
Whoopsy HERE
Good  grief I forgot THE KOUK

I can't help thinking Wayne Swan is laughing in the background as the Liberals have been singing from his hymnal ever since they have been in Government.

In essence there has been no change in the deficit as a % of GDP since a change of government. Wow way to go given the deficit 'disaster' they inherited.

This all started when  income tax were given with the deletion of the petrol excise . see HERE.

Trump , Will the primaries change things

Up to this stage Trump popularity with Republican voters has stood still no matter how many stupid statements he makes.
He is clearly the non-politician they like.

However once the primary season comes before us they then have to vote for a Republican candidate whom they hope can beat Hillary Clinton.

Once this dose of realism hits the voters will they change and then vote for an electable candidate?

I had thought that as candidates drop out their 'votes' would go to other candidates and Trump's would stay still.

This has not occurred.

Indeed at this stage many ore now writing of a Republican convention where no candidate has enough votes to become the Presidential candidate.

Who knows but I have a sneaking suspicion when republican voters cast their votes in the primaries Trump will get less votes than anticipated and he will at some stage drop out.

Around the Traps 11/12/15

It is time for Around the Traps again

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Quiggin on increasing-gst-not-worth-the-effort
• Paul Fritjers on how-bad-were-the-good-old-days-of-hawkekeating
• Ross Gittins on broken-public-service-leads-to-broken-governance
• Greg Jericho on we-can-raise-the-gst-and-keep-the-tax-system-progressive-but-its-a-tricky-sell
• Stephen Grenville on Australia-and-the-US-good-friends-can-sometimes-differ-in-global-economic-diplomacy
• The Kouk on digital-disruption-is-slowing-growth-but-it-will-make-for-better-economies , as-turnbull-s-gloss-fades-are-labor-the-better-bet , doubt-the-jobs-data-at-your-peril-again
• Croaking Cassandra on what-should-the-governor-do, a-central-bank-adrift, why-isnt-the-high-unemployment-rate-bothering-more-people , a-hawkish-easing-and-a-dovish-tightening
• Mark the Ballot on aggregated-polling-chart-bonaza
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-turnbull-bounce-finally-peaks
• Jennifer Menzies on turnbull-faces-his-most-taxing-test-yet-wooing-the-states-to-overhaul-the-gst
• Allen Behm on A-larger-Australia-Situation-size-and-strategy
• Chris Aulich on yes-minister-how-political-appointments-tip-the-scales-of-fearless-advice
• Richard Holden on why-it-is-time-for-a-no-bs-pledge-when-it-comes-to-myefo-forecasts
• Stephen King on confusion-reigns-in-options-for-australias-misuse-of-market-power-laws

Northern America

• Calculated Risk on the-endless-parade-of-recession-calls , the-futures-so-bright
• the bonddad blog on the-future-is-bright-or-perhaps-not Thanks Mark
• Timothy Taylor on fed-interest-rate-increases-not-when , new-rules-for-workers-in-gig-economy , homelessness-in-america-slow-decline
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-and-thats-a-wrap
• David Beckworth on yes-fed-passively-tightened-in-fall-of-2008 , time-traveling-with-fed
• James Hamilton on factors-in-long-term-unemployment
• Kevin Drum on  no-obamacare-isnt-forcing-people-work-less Thanks Mark
• Dean Baker on it-doesn-t-seem-hard-to-get-good-help-the-jolts-data Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-does-legislating-a-rule-for-the-federal-reserve-make-sense

Europe

• Peter Dorman on somethings-rotten-in-state-of-reporting of Denmark
• Simon Wren-Lewis on uk-flooding-austerity-and-media , we-now-know-that-at-least-one-of-flood
• Kevin O'Rourke on slow-train-wreck
• Lord Keynes on wage-stickiness-in-1890s-germany
• Tony Yates on how-the-boe-makes-the-office-for-budget-responsibilitys-job-harder, data-nirvana-a-thought-following-the-bean-review-of-uk-statistics

Asia

• Roger Shanahan on The-media-battle-for-Syria-heats-up-as-government-counterattacks

Wonk

• Robert Waldmann on is-okuns-law-ok , phillips-curve-philippic-i Thanks Mark
• Mathew Rognlie on what lower bound Thanks Brad
• Simon Wren-Lewis on defining-austerity , competitiveness-some-basic-macroeconomics-of-monetary-unions
• Nick Rowe on just-a-little-bit-of-macro-first , ppfs-and-supply-curves , what-is-a-cashless-economy-anyway , switzerland-as-a-closed-end-mutual-fund-with-a-country-attached
• Stephen Kinsella on thoughts-on-flat-taxes
• Elizabeth Anderson on the-politics-behind-piketty
• Mark Humpries on the West is not like ancient rome Thanks Brad
• Cechetti and Schoenholtz on unconventional-monetary-policy-through-the-feds-rear-view-mirror  Thanks Mark
• Tim Harford on the-window-tax-an-open-and-shut-case
• Timothy Taylor on globalization-pauses-will-it-resume
• Chris Dillow on using-models , ideologue-moi, the-utopia-paradox, workplace-coercion
• Noah Smith on efficiency-in-growths-clothing-reply-to-john-cochrane , academic-bs-as-artificial-barriers-to-entry
• Menzie Chinn on estimating-shock-dependent-exchange-rate-pass-through

General

• Patryk Szewyck  and Nikolai Hampton on your-broadband-router-is-not-as-secure-as-you-think-it-is

Climate

• Barkely Rosser on why-is-pigou-club-so-out-of-synch-with-Paris-climate-negotiators 
• Petre Smith and Pep Canadell on removing-co2-from-the-atmosphere-wont-save-us-we-have-to-cut-emissions-now
• Moyhu on templs-november-down-04-from-october-but -still-hot, differential-equations-gone-wrong
• Tamino on asses-bray, ted-cruz-just-plain-wrong
• Variable Variability on judith-curry-uncertainty-monster-high-risk
• Artic sea ice blog on piomas-december-2015, northern-sea-route-operational-all-year-round
• Bronwyn Lo on Wanted-An-authoritative-and-encompassing-information-source-on-climate-change
• and Then Theres Physics on dogma
• Greg Laden on attacking-climate-science-and-scientists
• Peter Burdon on why-is-the-business-world-suddenly-clamouring-for-a-global-carbon-tax
• Steve from Brisbane on satellites-vs-thermometers

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)

• cannabis/IQ 
• use-of-jeffreys-prior-in-estimating-climate-sensitivity
• Probabilistic integration
• hierarchical-modeling-when-you-have-only-2-groups-i-still-think-its-a-good-idea-you-just-need-an-informative-prior-on-the-group-level-variation
• why-i-decided-not-to-enter-the-100000-global-warming-time-series-challenge
• more on prior distributions for climate sensitivity
• defining-conditional-probability
• kids prefer cheese on isomorphic-mimicry-run-amok-john Thanks Mark
• Daniel Little on john-von-neumann-and-stochastic-simulations Thanks Mark

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• seasonal-unit-root-testing-in-eviews
• No Hesitations on long-memory-stochastic-volatility Thanks Mark

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• the-stuff-beneath-the-cloud , thinking-about-welfare-economics-or-not, debt-debt-debt-debt
• Liveo De Matteo on the-great-moderation-international-trends-in-alcohol-consumption
• John Quiggin on the-economist-as-grinch
• Ross Gittins on the-best-economists-know-market-is-flawed
• David Beckworth on book-for-holidays
• Alexander Hunter on explainer-the-history-of-jazz
• Lowy-Institutes-books-of-the-year-2015-part-1
• Harry Clarke on foolishness-by-phools-its-exploitation-by-phishers

Vox Wonk

• sub-saharan-africa-s-low-adoption-high-tech-farm-inputs
• labour-supply-effects-winning-lottery
• global-crisis-beyond-bank-balance-sheets
• micro-uncertainty-and-macro-slowdowns
• migrant-inventors-america-evidence-spillovers
• shrinking-planetary-gdp
• missing-transfers-new-evidence-dyadic-data
• measuring-concentration-wealth
• china-and-global-value-chain-new-evidence
• stability-bonds-for-the-eurozone
• international-macroeconomic-policy-coordination
• peer-effects-and-contagious-productivity
• commuting-and-local-jobs
• fiscal-policy-enduring-growth
• highly-educated-women-no-longer-have-fewer-kids
• some-unpleasant-brexit-econometrics
• choice-numeraire-matters-when-calculating-world-gdp-growth
• history-and-destination-emerging-market-capital-outflows
• global-teams-inventive-work
• when-refugees-become-returnees-new-evidence

A Reformation for Islam?

Former PM ( and catholic) Tony Abbott has called on Islam to have a reformation. He sees it as one the the big answers to terrorism.

First of all it is very ironical a catholic would call for a reformation when they do not recognise anything of the Reformation itself!

Roughly the reformation started when Erasmas ( who remained a catholic) showed how Catholic dogma was completely different to that in the original documents.  It was Luther and then of course Calvin who showed how catholic dogma was incompatible with the scriptures.

Islam have no original manuscripts. They were burnt.Islam actually had their enlightenment ( related to the reformation but not the same) period before the Western world and then retreated from it.
The Reformation actually caused more deaths in its early stages as mainly Catholic but also Protestant rulers put heretics to death.This could be called terrorism!
Among those targeted were people who translated the manuscripts into language everyone understood so it would not be the monopoly of the Catholic denomination!

Imagine for a moment that a reformation did occur. would people who support ISIL and their version of Islam change their views? Of course not.

Yet again Abbott has strayed into territory he does not understand .

The only person applauding would be Malcolm Turnbull. The reason being he gains stronger support each time Abbott opens his mouth not Bill Shorten as people are gladdened that Turnbull is PM now and not Abbott.

Innovation

The Government announced its innovation policy as did the Opposition.

It was a great shame I do not hear either talk about getting greater competition within Australia.

It is competition that drives innovation as it is the main driver that makes companies different to others. It makes sense to innovate as this will drive greater profits. It differentiates itself from other companies.

Why are we stopping people fighting ISIL?

Police interviewed a young man and who went and fought against ISIL.

Why in the hell would it be a crime to fight ISIL?

ISIL is one of the most evil organisations the Earth has known. The sooner it is gone the better.I have no trouble at all in punishing people who have gone and helped them ( although disillusioned supporters are sometimes the best propaganda weapons against ISIL) however leave people who go and fight ISIL well alone.

Ian McFarlane

Ian McFarlane has been a liberal member of parliament from Queensland. It is a safe seat. He has been a rather nondescript cabinet member for a while.

Now it appears he is about to switch to the National party because in essence he lost his cabinet position.

Two things stand out in this.

Why would a person merely switching sides make any difference to a coalition agreement. No electorate vote is involved.

If I was an ambitious younger national MP then I would be pretty unhappy that a political has been will get into cabinet and I didn't.
I can think of least two national mps who should be Ministers now but are not. ( I should state I went to the wedding of one MP and have known him for a while since he worked in the financial markets. i have known his wife longer.)

Around the Traps 4/12/15

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Rod Tucker on what-will-the-nbn-really-cost
• Andrew Elder on brough-enough
• Mike Callaghan on Getting-serious-about-climate-change-means-putting-a-price-on-carbon
• Croaking Cassandra  on weak-inflation-expectations-again, is promoting R&D the road to NZs future , nominal-gdp-targets-for-new-zealand, national-savings
• Mark the ballot on aggregation-stands-at-546-per-cent , updates
• Ross Gittins on lets-not-repeat-our-many-competition-stuffups, times-get-tougher-for-oldies , economys-transition-grinds-on-despite-quarterly-bumps
• Greg Jericho on transition-mining-boom-is-bust-or-is-it , australias-gdp-up-09-over-quarter-great-headline-but-not-the-full-story
• The Kouk on budget-deficit-narrowing-is-manna-from-heaven-for-scott-morrison , the-decline-of-union-membership, tobacco-consumption-falls-again-plain-packaging-and-excise-hikes-work , what-lies-ahead-for-australia-s-economy
• Kevin Davis on why-levying-gst-on-banking-has-been-in-the-too-hard-basket
• Bernard Mees on industry-super-funds-saved-from-us-style-ideology
• Paul Graham on the-electricity-network-is-changing-fast-heres-where-were-heading 
• Dean Biron on the-new-football-should-stop-engaging-in-old-soccer-debates
• Leon Berkelmans on Why-DFAT-is-wrong-on-the-opportunity-cost-of-FTAs
• Patrick Baker on 500-years-of-drought-and-flood-trees-and-corals-reveal-australias-climate-history
• Richard Ackland on eric-abetzs-close-to-extinction-howl-at-the-media-it-doesnt-get-much-more-predictable-than-this
• Adrian Cherney on yes-lets-have-a-frank-and-open-discussion-about-the-causes-of-extremism-and-terrorism

Northern America

• Greg Mayhew on avoiding-pointlessness Thanks Brad
• Barkley Rosser on its-monday-so-silent-samuelson-wants-tocut-SS-benefits-again
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-the-final-countdown
• Greg Ip on the-false-promise-of-a-rules-based-fed Thanks Brad
• Lael Brainard on normalising monetery policy when the neutral interest rate is low Thanks Mark
• Calculayed Risk on public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-under-various-Presidents
• Edward Lambert on estimate-ed-towards-a-recession

Europe

• Kruggers on iceland-ireland-and-devaluation-denial
• Simon Wren-Lewis on five-small-thoughts-on-autumn-statement , was-german-undercutting-deliberate, paris-climate-change-and-uk-government
• Kevin O'Rourke on it-has-finally-happened
• Colm McCarthy on the-euro-debate-and-the-abuse-of-language
• Coppolla comment on those-elusive-welfare-spending-cuts
• Chris Dillow on osbornes-wage-squeeze

Asia

• Leon Berkelsman on /IMFs-yuan-decision-why-it-matters-and-why-some-are-not-pleased
• Menzie Chinn on the-rmb-in-the-sdr
• Stephen Roach on china-slow-consumption-growth Thanks Brad
• David Brewster on Chinas-first-overseas-military-base-in-Djibouti-likely-to-be-a-taste-of-things-to-come
• Ben Bernanke on chinas-gold-star Thanks Mark
• Edward Lambert on japan-should-increase-wages
• Julian Sneider on Memory-loss-Chinas-high-stakes-gamble-in-the-tech-industrys-bloodiest-segment
• Andrew O'Neil on Middle-powers-hedge-against-China

Wonk

• Siobhan Austen and Darren O'Connell on nobel-laureate-douglass-norths-work-leaves-a-strong-legacy-for-economics
• John Quiggin on secular-stagnation-and-the-financial-sector
• Robert Waldmann  on demand-supply-and-what-is-new-after-2008
• Nick Rowe on is-two-the-new-zero , questions-for-moneymacro-historians-of-thought
• David Glasner on once upon a time when Keynes endorsed the Fisher effect
• James Hamilton on commodity-prices-and-exchange-rates
• Kruggers on is-the-economy-self-correcting-wonkish
• Noah Smith on econ-101-and-data-reply-to-david, why-teach-kids-macro-at-intro-level
• Twenty cent paradign on fight-for-our-principles Thanks Mark
• Tim Harford on the-pillars-of-tax-wisdom, eyes-on-the-innovation-prize
• Kevin O'Rourke on exchange-rates ,
• Tony Yates on reply-to-pk-financial-frictions-pushed-against-deflation
• Timothy Taylor on douglass-north-and-instititions
• Simon Wren-Lewis on the-centrality-of-policy-to-how-long
• Chris Dillow on on-legacy-ideas , capitalism-socialism-innovation
• David Glasner on eric-rauschway-on-the-gold-standard-2
• Kruggers on multiplier-evidence-and-multiplier-denial
• Lord Keynes on the-important-points-about-marxs-labour-theory-of-value
• Brad De Long on must-read-jan-mohlmann-and-wim-suyker-blanchard-and-leighs-fiscal-multipliers-revisited
• Croaking Cassandra on the-wealth-of-nations-and-democracy

General

• Francis Markham , Bruce Doran and Martin Young on gambling-on-pokies-is-like-tobacco-no-amount-of-it-is-safe
• Paul Rogers on isiss-plan-and-wests-trap
• Chris Dillow on syria-overconfidence-tribalism
• Casper Wuite on Why-UN-brokered-Libyan-peace-talks-are-crucial-in-the-fight-against-ISIS
• Timothy Taylor on what-if-government-paid-kidney-donors

Climate

• Menzie Chinn on a-year-for-records-temperatures-acres-burned , satellite-data-on-temperatures
• and Then Theres Physics on censoring-their-own-research , sensitivity-to-cumulative-emissions, bayesian-estimates-of-climate-sensitivity
• dana1981 on how-much-meat-contribute-to-gw
• Aric Sea Ice Blog on if-the-atmosphere-gets-cleaned-up
• Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty on carbon-and-inequality-kyoto-paris
• Timothy Taylor on cap-and-trade-lessons-of-experience
• Jason Hall-Spencer on attack-of-the-jellies-the-winners-of-ocean-acidification
• Mark Gibbs on sea-level-rise-is-real-which-is-why-we-need-to-retreat-from-unrealistic-advice
• Rabett run on uah-tlt-series-not-trustworthy
• Skeptical science on scientists-open-letter-wsj-ridley-peiser
• hotwhopper on el-nino-in-lower-troposphere-watch-this-space
• moyhu on big-uah-adjustments
• Greg Laden on incredibly-important-finding-on-renewable-energy

Andrew Gelman (Mainly Stats)

• how-to-analyze-hierarchical-survey-data-with-post-stratification
• garry-is-50-years-old-he-is-a-chess-player-who-is-also-active-in-a-political-movement
• arizona-historian-just-cant-stop-copying
• why-us-litigious
• data-transplanted-in-kidney-study
• extrapolation, causal inference and hierarchical modelling
• Kaiser Fung on the-proliferation-of-useless-data , what-you-learned-and-not-learned-about-machine-learning

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• nuttin yet
• i-received-email-from-tymon-soczynski

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + Book Reviews)

• revolutionary-money , on-being-creative
• Various on the-spectacular-peacock-spider-dance-and-its-strange-evolutionary-roots
• scepticlawyer on why-goldcurrency-ratios-mattered-in-the-interwar-period

Vox wonk

• douglass-north-economist-s-historian
• ideas-of-douglass-north
• cfm-monthly-survey-china-s-growth-slowdown
• election-day-vote-buying-evidence-monetary-aggregates
• accounting-differences-europe-s-post-crisis-growth
• pro-poor-bias-trade-new-research-expenditure-channel
• immigration-and-far-right-voting-new-evidence
• tpp-unveiled
• sovereign-wealth-funds-new-era-oil
• towards-new-wto-institutional-approach
• german-wage-moderation-and-ez-crisis
• monetary-policy-expectations-and-aggregate-ez-shocks
• development-and-political-connections-firms
• ez-internal-devaluations-and-negative-demand-spillovers
• rmb-s-international-vs-regional-role
• beijing-pollution-and-hazy-data
• price-oil-and-price-carbon
• asset-price-inflation-ez-winners-and-losers
• electricity-shortages-and-industry-evidence-india
• import-competition-and-mental-distress
• fracking-and-coal-displacement