'It’s clear that if we expected a pause, we would expect most of the following years’ temperatures to be below the red forecast line, but about half above and half below the blue forecast line. On the other hand, if we expected continued warming, we would expect most of the following years’ temperatures to be above the blue forecast line, but about half above and half below the red forecast line.
So … how did it turn out? Were subsequent years about half above and half below the red (warming) forecast, or the blue (no warming) forecast? The answer is: neither.
What actually happened is that, according to the HadCRUT4 data, most of the data are above both forecasts. Twelve of sixteen were hotter than expected even according to the still-warming prediction, and all sixteen were above the no-warming prediction:'