Wednesday, 26 June 2013

Is the ALP doomed on September 14?

We have talked before about the chances of the ALP retaining Government in the election which will be held on September 14.

In Australian vernacular they have two chances. yours and buckleys!!

We have already seen from Kevin Bonham ( Just a link to his blog) that no government has ever come back from where this government is now.( his article was in Around the Traps some time ago).

If we observe Mark the Ballot ( again just a link to his blog but look though the various polling) we find ALP support rising when people realised they had been wood-ducked on just how great an impact the price on carbon would have on the economy.

Indeed the economic geniuses at Catallaxy had the ETS having a larger impact on the economy than the GST!Moreover when the first CPI was released with the ETS effects in it Sinclair Davidson claimed that Treasury has underestimated the impact. In fact they over-estimated the impact greatly. He, of course, never made a  mea culpa about his huge error.

The rise in the ALP vote and then decline happened when the political geniuses from Kevin Rudd's camp made certain noises about changing leadership. This was very very stupid.
Kevin Rudd was never going to bring on a leadership spill. He was always  going to wait and hopefully be given the leadership on his terms otherwise there would be turmoil.

Now this was never going to happen as Rudd was gotten rid of by the Factional power-brokers who saw their power slipping away to nothing.
They now would still rather see the ALP thrashed and retain their power than Rudd even give the ALP a respectable loss.

Hence this year has seen the ALP vote plummet because:

1) Nominal GDP growth has been below trend for some time and the implications were explained here,
2) The ALP has been fighting within itself. The electorate never likes a party that fights within itself. It is decidedly much harsher on the ALP in this area than the Liberals  as well.

It also must be said it doesn't matter if a government is good in policy terms as this one has been/is but extremely poor in political smarts as this one clearly has been/ is.
It simply doesn't deserve to win the next election!

And yes the ALP is doomed.

POSTSCRIPT

There is a leadership contest at 7 p.m. tonight. We will see if my hypothesis is correct.

Of course the Factional power brokers may not influence MP's as they look forward to the oncoming massacre!

UPDATE
Rudd wins 57-45. Wait for the Factional acolytes to start grumbling loudly  to show the ALP is still heavily divided and ensure a heavy defeat!!