Some people believe that by changing leaders from Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd the political game has changed.
John Quiggin is certainly in this camp. However so is Mumble and his opinion is to be respected.( Kathryn Crosby is in this camp as well.)
I am not. I certainly think he will do better than Gillard who whilst good on policy was extraordinarily bad at simple politics. Swan was even worse and Gillard thought he was great!
Rudd is a very much better political operator and can sell policies he understands as his history shows BUT:
1) The ALP has been shown up to be divisive. I fully expect backgrounding from Factional heavies to keep on this theme. As was stated yesterday If Rudd wins or loses 'well' the factional overlords will lose power again. They do not want this and would rather lose bigtime and keep their power.
2) When you combine nominal GDP growth well below trend with people's expectations of rising prices that are way too high then it is not strange people think the economy has either slowed drastically or is in a recession now.
Either of those issues would sink the ALP, both of then makes it a rolled gold certainty!