I got this book for Christmas but have only just read it recently.
I knew Michael Lewis was a good writer no great writer when I read Liars Poker. It was a fantastic read.
The Big Short is a great book and the basis for a very good movie.
Just read the book. you will enjoy it. you will get some understanding of what the GFC was all about.
Well things are happening domestically.
Fatima Payman an ALP senator frrom WA is apparently considering leaving the ALP because of her belief that Palestine should be a country. I have a few problems with this. Firstly she said nothing on this topic in caucus when it was debated. Strange if you are a strong supporter. Secondly what is the point if you support Palestine as a state ( as I do) iff Gaza is complete rubble and there are 750,000 Israelis living in the West Bank! It would be some country if you recognised it now.
Me thinks it is all about what occurs when she is up for re-election. She is unlikely to win. Maybe if she changes she is thinking she can win. Who knows.
The Coalition wants there to be divestiture with regard to supermarkets. This clearly has not be thought through. Who is going to compete against the big two with a few supermarkets they have to build and then make work. what do you think coles and woolies would do? Drop prices and create havoc.
I see there are some still calling for rates to rise. Oh dear. Let us go back and say it again. domestic demand or GNE is a mere 1% and falling. Just where do you want it to be -4%? Unemployment is rising. It is merely taking a bit longer then usual. Remember the CPI is a lagging indicator. moreover we have seen in the past rogue quarterly CPI figures. This is more likely to occur in monthly numbers!
Sometimes it is an advantage to be old
The US Supreme court has just handed down a decision which is bonkers and really can only be explained by politics.
THe US President is now a King who could assassinate a rival or organise a coup to stay in power!!
Apparently telling the DOJ to say the election was a fraud is part of the Presidential powers.
Before this ruling every credible legal analyst said the immunity case was bonkers. Now bonkers is the new normal.
Watergate was not illegal according to this ruling!
The Supreme court is simply making law up as they go just to favour Trump and republicans. It is they who will determine environmental regulation now not the relevant experts.
Quite simply no-one can trust the Supreme court now except Trump.
The 'Grate Debate'
Well yes Biden was awful BUT the ratings for this debate was the lowest ever when every pundit said it would be the opposite suggesting the US electorate is not really into this election yet. Also it is important to note that focus groups for both MSNBC and CNN were very anti-Trump. They neither like the constant lies nor the evasion of questions. None of the pundits could take that in. It is apparent Trump uses the Gish Gallup tactic. Perhaps David Frum is correct!I am wondering just how much Trump lies has permeated the USA. He was unbelievable in this 'debate'.We have yet to see the abortion debate get up to speed and this will occur as time goes on as it is on the ballot in quite a few states.
I should also add inflation was much higher in the midterms and what happened then.
Lastly debates very rarely determine elections.
HERE is Dan Dresner HERE is Stuart Stevens.
The Supreme Court
The Supreme Court has handed down a number of decisions yet not the Presidential immunity case which is dead easy to rule on. They have legalised graft. You can accept gifts AFTER the contract is accepted. They will determine what agencies can regulate. Unworkable Very strange. One judge does not know the difference between laughing gas and smog!!
Time to change the Court as they are out of control
What if Trump wins
There are some like Rachel Maddow who believe a Trump administration would come after her. I agree they would BUT it would take a long time for Trump lackeys to take the place of seasoned professionals. They are unlikely to be very good at their job at the DOJ. They would still have to have evidence of a crime to get an indictment from a grand jury. Even if they got this it would not be hard to fight such cases where beyond a reasonable doubt is needed.
It is time again for Around the Traps.
Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy
OZ Climate
Northern America
Europe
Asia
Wonk
General
Climate
Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)
Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)
Vox Wonk
The monthly inflation rate was released yesterday. See HERE for an explanation.
There are calls for a rise is rates.
Hold on There are a few things to concentrate on.
The CPI for tradables is falling the problem is non-tradables.
The base effects was the reason the annual rate rose. The monthly rate actually fell just not as much as last year!
GNE is only rising at 1% and it is slowing.
This could be an outlier. My old ( well not as old as me!) Glenn Stevens got not one but two outliers in terms of quarterly CPIs.
I could be wrong and to be honest thus far I have been we need to wait for the economy to affect the CPI. It is afterall a lagging indicator.
Oh the last two budgets ( well this one ends this month) were slightly contractionary. The government as I have said before are in a bind. The previous government did diddly squat on fiscal consolidation. If you go too hard when rates are rising then you guarantee a recession.
Here are a few articles
