Zelenskyy, Man of the Year

 The old saying is cometh the hour cometh the man. Well the Ukraine President has cometh.

He has been inspirational to his nation. He has unified them like no-one else. He has easily out maneuvered Russia in the present war.

Who would have though a former comedian could rise to such heights. Certainly not Russia.

If this man in not Time's man of the year then they should hand their badges in.

IPPC Report

 Two great articles on the report plus links to the report.

• new-ipcc-report-shows-australia-is-at-real-risk-from-climate-change-with-impacts-worsening-future-risks-high-and-wide-ranging-adaptation-needed
  
• mass-starvation-extinctions-disasters-the-new-ipcc-reports-grim-predictions-and-why-adaptation-efforts-are-falling-behind
  

the Ukraine situation

 here are some great articles on what is occurring in the Ukraine.

• ukraines-military-is-outgunned-but-can-still-inflict-a-great-deal-of-pain-on-russian-forces
  
• just-short-of-nuclear-the-latest-financial-sanctions-will-cripple-russias-economy
  
• what-are-sanctions-do-they-ever-work-and-could-they-stop-russias-invasion-of-ukraine
  
• is-international-law-powerless-against-russian-aggression-in-ukraine-no-but-its-complicated
  
• ukraine-invasion-what-the-west-needs-to-do-now-expert-view
  
• russia-is-using-an-onslaught-of-cyber-attacks-to-undermine-ukraines-defence-capabilities
  

As I see it Putin overestimated how good his army was, he has underestimated the costs involved, he has grossly underestimated the Ukrainian people. Putin looks as stupid as Trump at present and if things do not swing Russia's way a number of even worse things could occur.

I do predict that Ukraine will be turned into a pancake. Could this be the beginning of the end of Putin?

Around the Traps 25/2/22

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Ausssie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Blaxland on morrison-and-dutton-should-beware-the-sword-they-wield-against-labor-on-china-is-double-edged, explainer-what-was-the-chinese-laser-attack-about-and-why-does-it-matter
• Croaking Cassandra on a-deteriorating-institution, misleading, the-monetary-policy-statement, frankly-simply-daft
• Ross Gittins on unlike-media-econocrats-in-no-great-interest-in-raising-interest-rates, interest-rates-wont-rise-until-wages-are-rising
• renew economy on eraring-closure-will-result-in-more-wind-solar-and-batteries-and-less-gas, cannon-brookes-unstoppable-billions-pierce-the-bubble-of-fossil-fuel-denial, cannon-brookes-says-agl-bid-may-be-unicorn-for-cheaper-faster-energy-transition
• Institutional economics on the-case-for-forward-guidance, wages-growth-accelerates-but-still-dissapoints
• Bruce Mountain on the-battle-for-agl-heralds-a-new-dawn-for-australian-electricity
• Peter Martin on this-pointless-1-080-tax-break-should-have-ended-years-ago-but-has-become-hard-to-stop
• Sarah Kendall on why-australias-tough-national-security-laws-cannot-stop-foreign-interference-in-our-elections
• Melissa Tyler on transforming-australian-diplomacy-climate-leadership
• Greg Jericho on real-wages-in-australia-have-tanked-and-cant-be-hidden-by-the-coalition
• Abul Rizvi on australia-is-creating-an-underclass-of-exploited-farm-workers-unable-to-speak-up
• Taimor Sohail and Jan Zika on climate-change-is-warping-our-fresh-water-cycle-and-much-faster-than-we-thought
• Daniel Cass on why-the-australian-government-should-welcome-mike-cannon-brookes-plan-to-takeover-agl
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-stealth-tax-rises-are-eating-into-your-income-but-we-know-the-solution

Northern America

• noahopinion on the-rejection-of-bidenomics
• the conversable economist on did-antitrust-really-used-to-be-so-tough
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-justices-not-honest-amy-coney-barrett-notre-dame-abortion-voting-rights
• Alex Tabarrok on will-our-military-state-fail-us
• Zacck Beachamp on martin-luther-king-jr-political-philosophy-brandon-terry
• David Frum on energy-crisis-russia-gas
• the time of monsters on putin-aint-woke
• No more Mr nice blog on memify-it-democrats Thanks Brad
• Alexander Vindman on ukraine-russia-war-nato-biden-deterrence
• Very Serious on rick-scott-just-gave-a-huge-gift Thanks Brad
• the overshoot on how-should-the-federal-reserve-tighten Thanks Brad

Europe

• Alexy Muraviev on why-vladimir-putin-is-so-confident-in-his-ukraine-strategy-he-has-a-trump-card-in-china
• Ian Hill on putin-s-choice
• Danniel Flitton on putin-seeks-rewrite-history
• Robin Wright on putin-launches-his-invasion-of-ukraine
• noahopinion on the-economic-consequences-of-a-russia-ukraine-war
• Barkley Rosser on the-minsky-moment-in-eastern-ukraine, vladimir-v-putin-loses-his-mind-and-becomes-a-war-criminal
• Zack Beauchamp on putin-ukraine-nazi-russia-speech-declare-war
• Ara Maria-Jailer et al on eu-gas-diversity-of-supply-or-diversity-of-routes
• The French Press on were-all-ukrainians-now Thanks Brad

Asia

• Adam Simpson and Juliette Mcintyre on it-s-mistake-allow-myanmar-s-junta-appear-rohingya-case
• Nic Bisley on china-and-ukraine-crisis

Wonk

• Tim Harford on is-inflation-worse-for-the-poorest-households-incredibly-weve-decided-its-fine-not-to-know-the-answer
• David Tuffley on twitter-for-the-right-a-look-at-truth-social-trumps-ethically-dubious-social-media-platform
• Ingrid Robeyns on limitarianism-a-philosophical-dispute
• Rowan Dickinson on how-russias-recognition-of-breakaway-parts-of-ukraine-breached-international-law-and-set-the-stage-for-invasion
• coppolla comment on the-secs-bitcoin-etf-standoff
• Ian Lowe on limitless-power-arriving-too-late-why-fusion-wont-help-us-decarbonise
• the conversable economist on global-plastics
• Uneasy Money on interest-on-reserves-and-credit-deadlock
• David Adam on Covid's true death toll thanks Brad

General

• Chris James and Yu Liu on jupiter-saturn-uranus-neptune-why-our-next-visit-to-the-giant-planets-will-be-so-important-and-just-as-difficult
• Thomas the Think Engine on should-you-play-powerball-the-three-levels-of-naivety-plus-one-bonus-level

Climate

• Graeme Readfearn and Adam Morton on antarctic-sea-ice-falls-to-lowest-level-since-measurements-began-in-1979
• Dylan McConnell et al on energy-poverty-in-the-climate-crisis-what-australia-and-the-european-union-can-learn-from-each-other
• Skeptical Science on climate change dampens economic growth
• Open Mind on sea-level-denial
• Donna Lu on climate-change-is-intensifying-earths-water-cycle-at-twice-the-predicted-rate-research-shows
• undark on its-time-we-stop-listening-to-economists-on-climate-change Thanks Brad

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• efficacy-of-ivermectin-treatment-on-disease-progression-among-adults-with-mild-to-moderate-covid-19-and-comorbidities-the-i-tech-randomized-clinical-trial
  
• the-important-it-exists-and-its-not-going-away-argument-as-it-applies-to-economics-political-science-sabermetrics-and-many-aspects-of-statistics
  
• hierarchical-model-golf-putting-success
  
• pen-and-notebook-recommendations
  
• hierarchical-model-golf-putting-success
  
• pen-and-notebook-recommendations
  
• former-editor-of-british-medical-journal-says-we-should-assume-that-the-research-is-fraudulent-until-there-is-some-evidence-to-support-it-having-happened-and-been-honestly-reported
  
• testing-fractional-doses-of-covid-19-vaccines
  
• masks-block-some-fraction-of-viral-particles-from-dispersing-from-those-who-are-infected-and-from-infecting-those-who-are-susceptible-studies-that-did-not-find-masks-to-be-effective-had-limite
  
• weakliem-on-public-opinion-and-politics/
  
• Kevin Bonham on oops-i-did-it-again-multiple-participation-in-opt out-polls
• Kaiser Fung on know-your-data-31-wordle-and-nyt

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• productivity-everywhere
  
• scientists-billionaires-and-political-sausage-making
  

Vox Wonk

• wto-accession-and-intimate-partner-violence-cambodia
  
• personal-loss-recovery-offline-digital-cash
  
• growth-expected-regain-traction-after-winter-slowdown-commissions-winter-2022-forecast
  
• earmarked-paternity-leave-increases-parental-wellbeing
  
• pandemic-modelling-network-structure-and-behaviour
  
• long-lasting-health-effects-severe-shocks-during-pregnancy
  
• cross-border-effects-environmental-regulation
  
• long-lasting-health-effects-severe-shocks-during-pregnancy
  
• immigration-and-care-america-s-older-population
  
• intergenerational-transmission-cognitive-skills
  
• covid-19-quartile-comparison-official-excess-mortality
  
• proposing-faster-more-progressive-approach-trade-reform
  
• fiscal-decentralisation-can-improve-women-s-labour-outcomes
  
• women-s-liberation-household-revolution
  
• private-equity-industry-new-interest-rate-environment
  

What is Putin up to?

 Okay here are two great articles from the Lowy Institute on the topic.

• putin-seeks-rewrite-history
  
• putin-s-choice
  

My view is Putin is no idiot so invading Ukraine would be very costly economically, socially, militarily.

Again my guess is simply recognising the two breakaway states will be enough. He knows Ukraine wants no part with him and distrusts him.

The West should have done something better when Russia invaded the Ukraine and took their territory previously. He can now walk away and say he has won.

I should have added China will be looking closely here. Just remember however the USA has said it will come to Taiwan's defence if any country attacks them. This is not the case with Ukraine

the Bid for AGL

 Here are two articles on the attempted takeover of AGL.

• cannon-brookes-unstoppable-billions-pierce-the-bubble-of-fossil-fuel-denial
  
• the-battle-for-agl-heralds-a-new-dawn-for-australian-electricity
  

Bef ore commenting on this story I should add something from yesterday. Origin is going to have a 24/7 battery. Two things follow from this.

1. Origin has plans to develop a lot more renewable energy. They simply have not specified this as yet. Batteries only work when there is excess energy!
2. This will be the first 24/7 battery.

The attempted takeover is predicated on getting out of coal fired power. This is because it is highly expensive and loses money during the day because of rooftop power. ( see solar duck curve)

Renewables are very cheap and getting cheaper. That is how they shall make money.

That is can do capitalism I like

The Closure of Eraring

 Origin has announced the forthcoming closure of the Eraring coal fired power stations.

Here are a number of articles on it or related.

• eraring-coal-plant-to-close-in-2025-as-origin-energy-accelerates-coal-exit
  
• how-the-solar-duck-curve-gave-australias-biggest-coal-generator-an-early-retirement
  
• australias-largest-coal-plant-will-close-7-years-early-but-theres-still-no-national-plan-for-coals-inevitable-demise
  
• Australia-early-eraring-coal-plant-closure-highlights-future-of-energy-system-is-renewables-and-storage
  

Eraring was always going to close early. As you can read it is the highest cost coal fired power station. It is a victim of the solar duck curve. The only problem here compared to say Liddell is AGL clearly stated how they were going to build up capacity . Origin merely stated in general terms what they are attempting to do.

Both AGL and Origin saw what occurred when Hazelwood closed down . AGL therefore in their press release were highly specific in what they would do. Hence AEMO is not concerned. with Origin we have to go on trust.