Covid has been bad for small government lovers

The Corona virus has been very bad for the small government types.

Outsourcing security down in Melbourne for those who arrived from overseas has proved a disaster.
Hard to disagree with Richard Holden.

The Aged Care industry is simply an unmitigated disaster.The royal commission heard terrible testimonies way before the industrys' woeful response to the virus.

The health industry has simply been cut to the bone by various Governments so its response has not been as it should be.

The labour market is now so liberalised people cannot afford to miss work even when they have the virus. Our labour market is imitating the US market and not in a good way.

We shall see a larger role for government now.

Ross Gittins opines.

Mainly Stats stuff

Some different articles mostly involving stats.

Firstly a study on male bisexuality.
Neither Andrew Gelman's blog ( it is Dan who writes not Andrew) nor  Statschats are impressed.
Next Statschat on Bogus polls. It is about the Kiwis but valuable nevertheless.

Since we are talking about politics here is Andrew Gelman responding well to Nate Silver's criticisms on polling for the US Presidential; election.
Now he writes about RA Fisher. Yes he was a racist but was that what he made his stats reputation on?

Our own Kevin Bonham on Essential's response to the massive polling failure of the last election.- does its new 2PP work?

And now for something completely different. Just how good is Peer Review. No Hesitations thinks it (rightly) over-rated.

Around the Traps 31/7/20

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Lisa Adkins et al  on homebuilder-only-makes-sense-as-a-nod-to-morrisons-home-owning-voter-base
• Bec Stratin on australia-lays-down-law-south-china-sea-dispute
• Ross Gittins on why-we-dont-need-to-panic-over-big-budget-deficits, thatcherism-our-conservatives-prefer-punishment-to-reform
• Nick Gruen on the-post-covid-recovery-a-snippet
• renew economy on all-australias-coal-generators-could-close-by-2040-and-it-wont-be-as-big-a-deal-as-youd-think, nine-more-solar-farms-could-have-output-cut-to-zero-due-to-system-strength-issues, worlds-fastest-energy-transition-aemo-maps-path-to-94-per-cent-renewables
• Croaking Cassandra on empty-vessels, not-expecting-enough-inflation, the-illegitimate-central-bank
• Warren Hogan et al on gambling-on-the-stock-market-are-retail-investors-even-playing-to-win
• Tony Walker on payne-and-reynolds-need-to-tread-carefully-in-washington-as-us-turns-up-the-heat-on-china
• Sean Scalmer on how-graham-berry-brought-party-democracy-to-colonial-australia-and-then-was-forgotten
• Michael Douglas on australias-outdated-defamation-laws-are-changing-but-theres-no-revolution-yet
• Michelle Grattan on view-from-the-hill-aged-care-crisis-reflects-poor-preparation-and-a-broken-system
• Heath Baker on managing-chinese-economic-risks-means-more-diversification
• Kevin Bonham on essentials-new-2pp-plus-what-is-it-and-does-it-make-any-sense
• Giovanni De Virgilio et al on under-climate-change-winter-will-be-the-best-time-for-bush-burn-offs-and-that-could-be-bad-news-for-public-health-
• Rowan Callik on payne-and-reynolds-leave-washington-with-key-wins-and-room-to-disagree-with-us-on-china
• Julian Teicher and Bernadine Van Gramberg on far-too-many-victorians-are-going-to-work-while-sick-far-too-many-have-no-choice
• Peter Martin on the-government-has-just-sold-15-billion-of-31-year-bonds-but-what-actually-is-a-bond
• Stephen Duckett and Will Mackey on no-australia-should-not-follow-swedens-approach-to-coronavirus
• Mary Louise McClaws on new-south-wales-on-a-knife-edge-as-cumulative-coronavirus-case-numbers-spiral-into-the-red-zone
• The kouk on climbing-the-covid-mountain
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-the-covid-19-crisis-in-aged-care-shows-elimination-is-the-only-effective-strategy
• Harry Scheule on why-nsw-is-skewing-its-tax-system-toward-build-to-rent-apartments-and-away-from-mum-and-pop-landlords
• Meg Elkins and Robert Hoffmann on what-to-do-with-anti-maskers-punishment-has-its-place-but-can-also-entrench-resistance

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on congressional-research-service-fiscal-policy-and-recovery-from-the-covid19-recession, collapsing-confidence-in-public-health-macroeconomic-management
• Li Zhou on alexandria-ocasio-cortez-speech-misogyny-sexism-congress
• New Deal Democrat on new-home-sales-roar-back-to-pre-pandemic-levels
• Brad De Long on statement-on-pandemic-unemployment-compensation-equitable-growth
• Erin Hurley on american-carnage-take-two
• the conversable economist on slavery-and-history-of-us-economic

Europe

• Rodger Shanahan on turkey-not-team-player
• Alexandre Dayant on europe-united-recovery-now
• stumbling and mumbling on maskphobia-the-face-of-conservativism
• James empty blog on the-price-of-freedom

Asia

• Richard McGregor on china-s-deep-state-communist-party-and-coronavirus
• Dominic Meager on what-s-secret-southeast-asia-covid-success-stories
• JJ Rose on battle-hong-kong-takes-new-shape
• Nic Bisley on on-china-us-speaks-loudly-but-carries-no-stick
• Ross Andersen on china-ai-surveillance
• Khang Vu on us-south-korea-working-group-blues

Wonk

• Peter Wark on heres-what-we-know-so-far-about-the-long-term-symptoms-of-covid-19
• John Quiggin on the-end-of-interest
• Tim Harford on why-experiments-matter-and-why-we-hate-them, will-the-mental-scars-of-covid-fade-or-endure
• stumbling and mumbling on ideas-interests-and-capital
• The ideological origins of the rule of law  Thanks Tyler Cowen
• Nick Gruen on non-linearities-risk-policy-and-administration 
• Ben Scott on five-eyes-blurring-lines-between-intelligence-and-policy
• Menzie Chinn on the-dollars-value-under-pressure, guest-contribution-international-factor-payments-and-the-pandemic, guest-contribution-lasting-damage-of-the-pandemic
• Greg Austin on explainer-why-is-the-south-china-sea-such-a-hotly-contested-region
• Vasabjit Banerjee and Timothy Rich on which-side-would-us-public-choose-india-china-conflict
• the conversable economist on simon-haeder-makes-gentle-case-nudging-kidney-donors
• Eric Lonergan on angrynomics-a-reply-to-chris-dillow, marx-has-the-last-laugh
• institutional economics on us-dollar-bears-and-gold-bulls
• Chris Bertram on whats-wrong-with-cancel-culture
• No Hesitations on dirty-non-secrets-of-scientific-peer-review

General

• David King on sniffles-sneezing-and-cough-how-to-tell-if-its-a-simple-allergy-rather-than-the-virus

Climate

• Science of Doom on models-and-rainfall-vii-australia-canesm2-csiro-miroc-and-mri-rcp4-5-rcp8-5
• John French et al on carbon-emissions-are-chilling-the-atmosphere-90km-above-antarctica-at-the-edge-of-space
• David Appell on US emissions hit record low
• Real Science on somebody-read-the-comments

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• when-was-the-first-literary-schlub
• which-in-your-personal-judgment-is-worse-if-you-could-only-choose-one-a-a-homosexual-b-a-doctor-who-refuses-to-make-a-house-call-to-someone-seriously-ill
• bad-research-scientism-the-importance-of-description-and-the-challenge-of-negativity
• the-crooks-get-the-headlines-but-the-real-problem-is-bad-science-done-by-non-crooks
• some-questions-from-high-school-students-about-college-and-future-careers
• the-history-of-low-hanging-intellectual-fruit
• statschat on rogue-polls
• Kaiser Fung on its-high-time-to-call-out-those-who-got-it-right

Retired but still genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• No Hesitations on the-pandemic-recession-as-giant-outlier
• Econometric Sense on /assessing-balance-for-matching-and-rcts

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• boom and bust 
• David Hopkins on book-review-memory-massacre-thailand
• and Then Theres Physics on superior
• Tim Harford on book-of-the-week-28-the-monopolists-by-mary-pilon

Vox wonk

• supply-side-impact-covid-19
• leaning-against-wind-empirical-cost-benefit-analysis
• economic-uncertainty-wake-covid-19-pandemic
• impact-phase-one-trade-agreement
• influence-covid-19-pandemic-safe-haven-assets
• welfare-impact-emission-standards-eu-automobile-market
• real-time-inflation-measurement-during-covid-19 
• transfer-pricing-intangible-assets-arm-s-length-principle
• quantitative-easing-and-helicopter-money-not-so-distant-cousins
• demand-versus-supply-price-adjustment-during-covid-19-pandemic
• reading-between-lines-ecbs-introductory-statements
• consumers-should-own-their-data
• sick-leave-generosity-and-unhealthy-returns-work
• reading-between-lines-ecbs-introductory-statements
• consumers-should-own-their-data
• microeconomics-cryptocurrencies
• race-and-covid-19-pandemic
• mutual-fund-performance-and-flows-under-covid-19
• excuses-prejudice
• robots-and-rise-european-superstar-manufacturers

Don't follow Sweden

The Grattan Institute comes in with an article showing Sweden is not the way to go on Corona virus.
THIS is also pertinent

If only Gigi Foster had known this on Monday on Q&A she would not had made a fool of herself.

Renewables: Fact and fiction.

Renew Economy had an interesting article last week which of course was in Around the Traps.

1. New solar and wind power  are taking market share from coal fired power stations because they have lower costs.
2. This lead to lower wholesale prices
3. Coal powered power station have quite a lot of outages both planned ( servicing the units)  which are gaining in frequency these days and unplanned ( breakdown of units).
4. Less revenue for battery storage
5. Rooftop solar is changing the time of highest demand. It is has changed from the middle of the day to when people get home from work.

Dear me how can all this occur if renewables are so unreliable? It is funny how all those people who so that are silent on the unreliability of coal fired power.

AEMO doesn't think much of the myths.

The Government's economic statement

Last Thursday we had a sort of economic statement.

A few people wrote articles on ot so I do not.

• Warren Hogan ( who looks very similar to his Dad!
• Grattan Institute
• Peter Martin
• Ross Gittins

My only comment is to disagree with Ross Gittins. He says the Government is about to run a contractionary policy. I think it is more accurate to say it is merely less expansionary. They are taking their foot off the accelerator somewhat.

IMHO a contractionary policy is one that detracts from growth whilst an expansionary policy adds to growth.  My back of the envelope calculations has fiscal policy still adding to growth post September

The NSW Government is sending out mixed messages

The NSW government is sending out mixed messages yet again in the corona virus.

It wants to stop a black Life Matters march. The organisers says they will ensure social distancing, people wear masks, have hand sanitisers ready. They could be lucky if 1000 turn up and last time when the weather was better and 10,000 turned up no problems occurred with the virus spreading.

Contrast that to community football.  Over the weekend well over 100,000 indeed much much more people played football. No social distancing, vast sweaty bodies, plenty of shouting which ensure that droplets from our mouths go a lot further than 1.5 metres.

Which is the more dangerous?

You either allow both to go on and ban both. I would do the latter.

Incidentally Mick Fuller has been shown up again as telling porkies. He acts like a politician not a police commissioner.

I might say something on Victoria's problems.  firstly does anyone alse find it ironic that the 'most ;eft wing' premier in Australia outsourced security of overseas travellers to the private sector. On this I agree with Richard Holden.

You do not need a lot of training to know your job is to ensure that people stay in their hotel rooms and they have NO contact with anyone else. you certainly do not go into their rooms and have ahem social contact.

If you suspect you have the virus and have the test you most certainly do not go anywhere UNTIL you have the results.

You do not need to be Einstein in either of these circumstances yet some Victorian act like Trumpians in this regard.