US part conventions are boring

 I kinda enjoy watching the late night current affairs shows on both CNN and MSNBC ( the former is way better than the latter EXCEPT for Ari Melber).

I do not get that a party contention is covered to the detriment of everything else. both networks did it with the republican convention and now it is the same with the Democrat convention.

Sorry but i find either boring. Saying your party is the best and the other side is the worst repeatedly is boring!

Peter Dutton is still a grub

 I talked about bringing people from Gaza recently however we must revisit the issue again.

Without going into too much detail we know:

• The way Australasia ascertains whether people are refugees and 'safe' has not changed since the government changed
• The only way people come out of Gaza is through the Rafah crossing and Israel vets everyone who does. guess what they do not allow members of Hamas to pass. If they are silly enough to try Israel goals them!
• Most people coming to Australia have family in Australia
• most but not all are christians
• 70% of applicants have been rejected for now
• no-one is coming out of the rafah crossing at present

LNP members are now saying polls show 70% of palestinians support Hamas actions on October 7. Good luck in getting a random sample in Gaza. Related to this furphy is saying the people are a national security threat. two problems with this. Firstly people who wish to fight Israel actually join Hamas. They do not simply give rhetorical support as the ASIO head says. Secondly Hamas is not an international organisation. They want to kill Israelis in Israel because they believe it is THEIR territory. Killing jews outside of Israel simply does not cut the mustard which is why we rarely hear of such things.

Scaring people over this issue is simply disgraceful

sanctions on russia

 A good short article of whether sanctions on russia work or not from the conversable economist.

Around the Traps 16/8/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Menadue on americas-war-machine-unless-australia-acquires-nuclear-weapons-why-acquire-aukus-subs Thanks Brad Nick
• Ross Gittins on we-should-stop-using-blunt-instrument-to-manage-economy , misbehaviour-thrives-in-our-age-of-capitalism-without-capitalists
• Institutional Economics on terry-mccranns-trip-down-the-section11-time tunnel
• Peter Mares on parents-are-waiting-more-than-30-years-for-an-australian-visa-the-new-home-affairs-minister-needs-to-act
• Nelson Ma et al on earnings-announcements-at-an-agm-can-reflect-a-corporate-power-play-not-necessarily-a-companys-true-value
• Nikki Hutley on the-rba-poured-cold-water-on-an-interest-rate-cut-before-christmas-but-its-hawkish-stance-may-make-inflation-even-worse
• Greg Jericho on the-rba-and-its-critics-claim-australias-economy-needs-to-be-slowed-down-but-the-data-shows-both-are-wrong
• Sally Larsen on are-the-latest-naplan-results-really-an-epic-fail
• Dianne Kraal on is-australia-giving-away-its-natural-resources
• Ben Scott on right-sizing-terror-threat
• croaking cassandra on still-a-bad-idea , heading-for-2-5-or-less-by-this-time-next-year
• Ross Scott on big-alcohol-and-tobacco-are-the-aces-of-strategic-marketing-the-gambling-industry-has-adopted-the-playbook
• Samantha Harris on the-gambling-industry-is-pulling-out-all-the-stops-to-prevent-an-ad-ban-but-the-evidence-is-against-it

OZ Climate

• Bill Hare on dug-up-in-australia-burned-around-the-world-exporting-fossil-fuels-undermines-climate-targets
• Ian Wright on urban-growth-is-leading-to-more-intense-droughts-for-most-of-the-worlds-cities-and-sydney-is-a-case-study-for-areas-at-risk
• networks-make-pitch-to-soak-up-solar-share-pv-plug-in-more-evs-and-lower-cost-of-renewable-shift
  
• one-of-australias-oldest-wind-farms-could-nearly-double-capacity-by-repowering-with-bigger-turbines
  
• agl-hails-performance-of-first-big-battery-says-waiting-for-nuclear-would-put-it-out-of-business
  
• faster-fairer-cheaper-regional-network-says-renewables-gap-could-be-filled-quickly-if-the-rules-allowed
  
• solar-farms-can-benefit-nature-and-boost-biodiversity-heres-how
  
• australia-lays-ground-for-reaching-100-pct-renewables-with-new-engineering-roadmap
  
• new-rules-change-game-for-evs-and-home-batteries-but-wont-give-power-to-the-people
  

Northern America

• Andy Craig on elon-musk-x-advertisers-lawsuit-social-media
• angry bear on helping-witnesses-in-trials-by-providing-financial-benefits
• the conversable economist on why-does-building-roads-cost-so-much-in-the-united-states , us-tax-policy-the-coming-storm-in-2025
• renew economy on batteries-step-in-as-coal-plant-trips-amid-heatwave-and-near-record-demand-in-texas
• Nicole Narea on violent-crime-dropping-pandemic-wave-2024
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-first-amendment-donald-trump-thomas-alito-gorsuch
• Brad De Long on trump-as-a-chaos-monkey-fed-independence-edition
• Frank Figluizzi on iran-hacking-trump-campaign-jd-vance
• noahopinion on new-industrialist-roundup-2024 , mass-deportation-would-accomplish-nothing , harris-makes-a-big-mistake-by-embracing
• Abdallah Fayyad on no-tax-on-tips-trump-harris-subminimum-wage
• David Faris on kamala-harris-trump-race-senate-polls-democrats-downballot
• Susan Del Percio on trump-campaign-race-against-kamala-harris-biggest-opponent
• Menzie Chinn on instantaneous-core-inflation-five-measures
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-03-in-july
• Joel Eissenberg on california-and-the-war-on-rooftop-solar
• Andrew Freedman on climate-change-extreme-wildfire-season
• Jon Dougherty and Norman Eissen on michael-cohen-fights-donald-trump-supreme-court
• David Frum on trump-campaign-musk-interview
• Shaun Rickman on misjudging-labor
• renew economy on embarrassing-blade-failure-and-the-struggle-for-answers-at-first-offshore-wind-farm-in-us
• Jarvis DeBerry on kansas-newspaper-getting-justice-illegal-police-raid
• Yair Rosenberg on trump-anti-semitism-comments-fox-news
• Adam Estes on utility-power-bill-price-clean-energy

Europe

• Chris Bertram on fascist-violence-and-the-imaginative-failure-of-the-labour-government, green-border
• Mainly Macro on racist-riots-and-conservative-party
• Ian Hill on forgotten-front-south-caucasus-contest
• stumbling and mumbling on government-as-household-if-only
• Mathew Sussex on was-ukraines-incursion-of-russia-a-tactical-stroke-of-genius-it-sent-a-strong-message-to-putin-and-the-west
• Ellen Ioannes on ukraine-russia-incursion-kursk-war-putin-zelenskyy-crimea

Asia

• Shahzad Uddin on bangladesh-how-the-prime-minister-sheikh-hasina-lost-her-grip-on-power
• Khang Vu on family-ties-how-kim-jong-un-going-his-own-way
• Yanitha Louis on binary-trap-after-bangladesh-s-unrest
• Craig Mark on why-did-japans-prime-minister-decide-to-step-down-and-who-might-replace-him
• Denny Roy on no-taiwan-not-prc-real-estate
• Sussanah Patton on thailand-loses-prime-minister
• Menzie Chinn on kursk-2024-update

Wonk

• Rodney Tiffen on how-rupert-murdoch-helped-create-a-monster-the-era-of-trumpism-and-then-lost-control-of-it
• Sean Illing on orwell-1984-animal-farm-orwellian
• noahopinion on some-thoughts-on-the-future-of-the-tech-industry
• Marnie Lloydd on the-geneva-conventions-at-75-do-the-laws-of-war-still-have-a-fighting-chance-in-todays-bloody-world
• Christopher Faulkner on wagner-group-setback-in-mali-challenges-moscows-strategy-in-africa-and-the-regions-faith-in-russian-mercenaries
• Gina Schouten on p-sets-in-philosophy
• Miah Hammond-Errey on byte-sized-diplomacy-will-governments-ever-reign-big-tech
• Tyler Cowen on finally-exchange-rate-models-seem-to-work-pretty-well
• Raina McIntyre on who-has-declared-mpox-a-global-health-emergency-what-happens-next
• John Quiggin on young-men-arent-shifting-right
• Lord Keynes on taxes-drive-money-what-does-this-mean

General

• John Adamson on killer-with-a-cause Thanks Nick
• Steve Vincent on john-lennon-wore-contact-lenses-that-kept-on-pinging-out-then-he-smoked-pot-and-the-rest-is-history
• Mark Grumholz on a-galactic-comet-called-terzan-5-just-illuminated-a-100-year-old-puzzle-about-cosmic-rays
• Anthony Clarke on the-altar-stone-of-stonehenge-came-from-an-unexpectedly-distant-place-new-study-reveals

Climate

• moyhu on giss-july-global-temperature-down-from-june
• skeptical science on climate-making-us-sick

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• data-issues-in-that-paper-that-claims-that-tiktok-and-instagram-have-consumption-spillovers-that-lead-to-negative-utility
  
• my-suggestion-for-the-2028-olympics 
  
• what-can-aspiring-political-moderates-learn-from-the-example-of-nelson-rockefeller
  
• the-river-the-village-and-the-fort-nate-silvers-new-book-on-the-edge
  
• when-is-calibration-enough
  
• sports-media-prestige-media-space-aliens-edition
  
• gist-now-with-local-step-size-adaptation-for-nuts
  
• maximum progress on four-randomized-control-trials-in-economics Thanks Nick
• Kaiser Fung on dead-people-fake-obituaries-and-ad-fraud , how-would-we-know-if-google-engineers-really-improved-traffic-flow-at-intersections

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading-or-not-reading

Vox Wonk

• demand-versus-supply-drivers-post-pandemic-inflation-and-interest-rates
  
• different-household-different-inflation-rate
  
• effects-tobacco-21-laws-tobacco-product-use-comparing-self-reports-and-biomarkers
  
•  inclusive-labour-force-participation-can-reverse-economic-consequences-population
• confronting-low-fertility-rates-and-population-decline
  
• effect-ai-adoption-jobs-evidence-us-commuting-zones
  
• skilled-struggling-brain-waste-dilemma-migrants-europe
  
• media-narratives-racial-equality-how-superman-helped-pave-ground-civil-rights
  
• culture-clash-what-14-million-images-tell-us-about-times-changin
  
• economic-test-protecting-consumers-ai-powered-collusion
  

Should we allow people from Gaza to come to Australiia

 Peter Dutton has said ALL people from Gaza should not be allowed to come to Australia because of national security concerns.  Please note he did not and would not enunciate what those national security concerns were.

We must realise to start with the current government has not changed any vetting any agencies do in this regard thus if there is a problem now there must have been a problem before.

Next is no-one from the Opposition is saying actual militants are coming here.That is people who took action before October7 or on October7 against Israel.

The current cry is no supporters of Hamas should come here again without showing how this would affect national security here. The current head of Asio has said he has no trouble with these kind of people.

The principal reason is although they support Israel getting in their eyes their come uppance that is it. They want to get out of a war zone and live a peaceful life. In this regard it should be recognised Hamas directly recruits from families who have had family members directly killed by Israel. Despite all that the recruiting is quite small so most say no. Even if they agree totally with all Hams's actions few want to sign up to kill Israelis.

In essence if our national security agencies had problems with any they would say so. They have said nyet to amy palestinians so we know they are doing their job. That being so Dutton is doing a Trump. He is lying so people will get scared and because of that gain their votes. He is being a first class grub

is it lying or ignorance or worse

 Menzie Chinn has an interesting article the-great-replacement-theory-comes-to-economics-at-heritage.

He covers the statistical 'missteps the author has made. I would add the author misses completely why those born in america are declining in the workforce.They are retiring!

So is he simply lying, ignorant or worse knows the truth but suppressing it.

Let me now go to a website called hotair,

without evidence they will say pro-palestinian demonstrators are pro-hamas. This is worse as it is positively goebbelsian ( is there such a word?). sometimes they show a photograph but it is a palestinian flag not a hams flag. One has 3 colours the other is simply green.

They employ a simply loathsome individual called David Strom. He doescl ike to call people idiots Trump style. He says he does not like trump but then will say the 2020 election might or might not have had electoral fraud in it (ac alleged by trump). They are weasel words.

He claims to support a two state solution but cannot at present because palestinians just want to kill jews. That is a nice racist trope and completely ignores what has occured in the west bank for example as well as conflating Hams with ALL palestinians in Gaza.

He has said Harris is a communist but failed to produce any evidence she was going to nationalise all in dustry and services. Perhaps he does not know there is NO private sector in communism.

Aghhhh

Trump is bonkers

 Courtesy of Kevin Drum hare are but three examples of Trump's 'intelligence'

First  an incoherent 'press conference where he clearly has no idea of what the question is because the answer  is so muddled I'm sure he doesn't know or understand what he said.

trump-is-running-scared-on-abortion

Second Trump on his almost helicopter crash with Willie Brown who wasn't there

donald-trump-is-hallucinating-things

Finally Trump alleging the crowds at a Harris event was actually all AI generated.

everything-is-crazy

Trump is bonkers. being obese and old simply makes this worse.