Traffic

 Traffic was a great group with multiple changes but with Steve Winwood always in the creative lead.

The low spark of high heeled boys was easily the best song they ever did.

Here it is live. enjoy

Around the Traps 12/7/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy.Oy,Oy

• Chris Wallace on all-commit-and-no-disagree-the-real-reason-why-labors-solidarity-pledge-is-not-working
• Ross Gittins on yes-we-need-tax-reform-but-it-offers-no-answers , the-moribund-political-duopoly-is-rapidly-destructing , forget-smaller-government-lets-shoot-for-better-government
• croaking cassandra on not-on-the-brink-of-bankruptcy , still-avoiding-responsibility
• Frank Bongiorno on faith-based-politics-is-nothing-new-in-australia-so-whats-albanese-really-worried-about
• John Buchanan on why-real-wages-in-australia-have-fallen-while-theyve-risen-in-most-other-oecd-countries
• Michelle Grattan on real-time-donation-disclosure-and-spending-limits-in-labor-electoral-reforms
• Lisa Asher and Catherine Sutton-Brady on supermarket-concentration-benefits-stores-not-shoppers-its-time-to-split-foodstuffs-not-make-it-stronger
• Sarah Kendall on a-russian-born-adf-soldier-and-her-husband-have-been-charged-with-spying-what-does-this-mean

OZ Climate

• Asma Aziz on without-a-massive-grid-upgrade-the-coalitions-nuclear-plan-faces-a-high-voltage-hurdle
• Milton Speer and Lance Leslie on southerly-busters-are-becoming-more-frequent-but-less-severe-as-the-climate-changes-stirring-up-east-coast-weather-watchers
• Jay Gordon on australians-overpaid-18-billion-gas-networks-now-theyre-being-asked-more
• fate-of-contested-hills-of-gold-wind-project-delayed-again-as-developer-fights-for-more-turbines
  
• concrete-foundations-and-first-turbines-up-as-s-a-s-biggest-wind-farm-poised-to-start-production
  
• no-room-for-nuclear-agl-says-flexibility-is-key-as-it-switches-from-coal-to-renewables-in-a-decade
  
• sad-pathetic-farmers-say-arcane-network-rules-take-the-cream-off-the-clean-energy-they-produce
  
• south-australia-locks-in-federal-funds-to-become-first-grid-in-world-to-reach-100-per-cent-net-wind-and-solar
  
• new-big-battery-breaks-habit-goes-for-morning-stretch-and-takes-state-to-new-record
  

Northern America

• James Downie on supreme-court-immunity-ruling-jim-crow
• Neal Katyl on sotomayor-trump-immunity-dissent-election
• Steve Waldman on no-longer-a-liberal-democracy Thanks nick
• past present future on the-biden-team-and-the-bay-of-pigs Thanks nick
• institutional economics on the-trump-trade
• Sean Illing on how-the-1990s-broke-politics
• noahopinion on energy-bell-the-sketch-of-an-idea , lets-evaluate-the-whole-republican-party-platform , skilled-immigration-is-a-national-security-priority
• Brad De Long on restore-elon-musk-and-tesla-to-greatness , ok-jay-powell-precisely-which-inflation-numbers-do-you-want-to-see-more-of
• new deal democrat on further-on-why-the-big-increase-in-immigration-has-been-distorting-the-signal-from-the-sahm-rule
• Zack Beauchamp on uk-french-election-results-2024-britain-england-france-biden
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-incompetent-abortion-trump-immunity
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-term-end-john-roberts-maga
• Menzie Chinn on reserve-de-dollarization-in-progress , cea-tariffs-as-a-major-revenue-source-implications-for-distribution-and-growth
• Frank Figliuzzi on supreme-court-trump-immunity-fbi
• Erin Hurley on biden-s-candidacy-was-risky-debate-democrats-chose-him-anyway
• David Appell on where-us-coastal-land-is-sinking
• the conversable economist on are-american-jobs-really-all-that-bad , americas-elevator-problem
• Lisa Rubin on joshua-kindred-trump-judge-sexual-misconduct
• Victoria Cooper on why-democrats-suddenly-have-buyer-s-remorse-biden
• Christian Paz on kamala-harris-2020-president-campaign-2024-failure-lesson
• Tim Alberta on trump-campain-election-2024-susie-wiles-chris-lacivita
• Fintan O'Toole on savior-complex-biden
• Jeet Heer on biden-distraction-trump-fascism , biden-indispensable-samson-option
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-02
• Mark Leibovitch on biden-digging-in-presidential-race
• Ben Bland on biden-time-out-time

Europe

• Ben Wellings on keir-starmers-labour-party-has-a-thumping-election-win-what-does-it-mean-for-the-uk-and-the-rest-of-the-world
• Mick Ryan on four-key-influences-evolution-ukraine-war-2025
• Chris Armstrong on bye-bye-tories-hello-what
• Mainly Macro on what-conservative-rout-tells-us-about-the-popularrity-of-a-rightwing-populist-government
• Romain Fathi on french-say-non-to-le-pens-national-rally-but-a-messy-coalition-government-looks-likely
• Isaac Chotiner on the-uncertain-outcomes-of-emmanuel-macrons-election-maneuver
• Anna Russell on tory-tears-on-the-uks-election-night
• renew economy on german-coal-power-production-drops-to-record-low-in-q2-as-renewables-soar-to-65-pct-share

Asia

• Ahmed Albayrak and Roland Rajah on political-upheaval-vietnam-holding-its-economy-back
• Ian Hall on modi-s-moscow-miscalculation
• Henry Storey on india-faces-jobless-growth-problem
• Ellen Ioannes on pezeshkian-iran-khamenei-elections-raisi-president-ayatollah-mahsa-amini-protests-vote-hijab
• Anubhav Goswami on india-s-act-east-ambition-must-navigate-myanmar

Wonk

• Emmy Van Esch on skip-the-fancy-perks-better-staff-wellbeing-could-be-as-simple-as-the-view-from-the-office-window
• Peter Dean on the-end-of-superpower-conflict-was-a-fantasy-era-the-west-underestimated-russia-and-china-the-cold-wars-are-back
• Khalid Siddig and Rob Vos on sudan-is-now-confronting-its-most-severe-food-security-crisis-on-record
• Samuel Bashfield on cable-ties-defending-seabed-lines-communication
• Tyler Cowen on 30th-anniversary-of-the-brazilian-real
• Alex Tabarrok on rent-control-2
• sandwichman on self-limitation-as-social-project

General

• Jamie Roberts on guide-to-the-classics-the-art-of-war-the-ancient-chinese-war-manual-loved-by-edgelords-and-management-gurus
• Tim Harford on cautionary-tales-the-loneliness-of-the-long-distance-woman
• Thea van de Mortal on whats-the-difference-between-man-flu-and-flu-hint-men-may-not-be-exaggerating

Climate

• Ryan North and Tim Barrows on we-used-1-000-historical-photos-to-reconstruct-antarctic-glaciers-before-a-dramatic-collapse
• Mark Costello and Peter Harris on as-ocean-surfaces-acidify-a-deep-sea-acidic-zone-is-expanding-marine-habitats-are-being-squeezed
• Moyhu on june-global-surface-templsup-0030-from-may
• open mind on how-fast
• Kevin Morrison on why-carbon-capture-and-storage-not-solution

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• you-can-guarantee-that-the-term-statistical-guarantee-will-irritate-me-heres-why-and-lets-go-into-some-details
  
• cross-validation-and-pointwise-or-joint-measures-of-prediction-accuracy
  
• its-time-how-much-should-we-charge-for-a-link
  
• the-election-is-coming-what-forecasts-should-we-trust
  
• a-guide-to-detecting-ai-generated-images-informed-by-experiments-on-peoples-ability-to-detect-them
  
• three-cultures-bayes-subjective-objective-pragmatic
  
• ancestor-worship-in-academia-where-does-it-happen
  
• 19-ways-of-looking-at-data-science-at-the-singularity
  
• Kaiser Fung on know-your-data-37-one-billion-passwords

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Bill Haskell on review-material-world

Vox Wonk

• effect-energy-prices-households-and-firms-inflation-expectations
  
• effect-productivity-growth-within-firm-inequality
  
• economic-pathways-new-approach-climate-policy
  
• why-us-doesnt-have-national-health-insurance-political-role-ama
  
• what-european-politicians-think-ecb-experimental-evidence
  
• learning-lessons-government-guarantee-programmes-bank-lending-firms
  
• how-eu-funding-programmes-could-counterbalance-us-inflation-reduction-act
  
• central-bankers-and-trade-ministers-how-monetary-policy-can-prevent-trade-wars
  
• import-channel-of-the-resource-curse
  

Climate Change

 In these terrible times Tamino of Open Mind fame comes up with a reasonably short article that needs to be read so here it is.

how-fast

war

 More evidence from Ukraine that russia simply has no values at all. They use a cruise missile to bob a children's hospital that specialised in cancer. It does not get any more despicable than that. russia then made the excuse it was a ukrainian missile that hit the hospital. That lie does not get anymore trumpian.

In Gaza Israel has deliberately targeted three schools. They di this because they allege Hamas personnel were there. Implied in this targeting is that the number of palestinians killed does not matter.

Hamas got their recruits willingly from families that had people killed by Israel. What in the hell does Israel think is going to occur once this 'war' is over. Hamas 2.0 that's what.

Satan is winning

Senator Payman revisited

 The more I think about Payman's behaviour the more cynical I become.

Payman joined the ALP and became part of the left wing faction. This in itself is very surprising for a person who claims to a person who attempts to live by Islamic principles. Hard to find a more godless faction than the left wing faction. As she rose up through the ALP at no time di she ever enunciate how important Islam was to her vote if she ever was to be elected. Indeed until quite recently this came as a shock to all in the ALP.

Now let us look at the ALP. There is no way the ALP would ever nominate a person who would vote for their beliefs before what caucus has voted for. ( Do these people have no idea of ALP history. It was started by evangelicals. Protestants' left the party when they could not vote on conscience.)

Payman is from Afghanistan yet she has said very little about Taliban oppression there. I also found it strange she quoted the phrase 'from the rivers to the sea' when she was not Palestinian. Now I do find that cultural appropriation.

She now admits she was talking with people other than the ALP when she was part of the ALP. This does not look good at all.

From where I sit Payman was unlikely to win the senate seat again. she has now put herself in a position to do so maybe.

There are now 4 read that again 4 senators who have deemed to be no longer with party they were voted in with, That in itself is not good for democracy.

elections, elections,elections

 Well we have had some elections around the world.

UK

The Labour party easily won the election with first past the post giving them a much bigger majority than their vote suggested.  Let us go back shall we. Teresa May called an early election on specious reasons. The electorate clearly saw those reasons as specious and as They di not think Corbyn could win they treated it as a by-election where Labour got a sizable swing. In the next election corbyn could win and johnsson got a huge swing to the conservatives. He then botched up as everybody knew he would and was replaced by Liz Truss possibly the most incompetent PM ever. After the shortest stay ever she gave way to Sunak. the Conservatives clearly showed they had been in far too long and got hammered. We shall see if Stammer and his team are up to the job.

France

Macron's gamble paid off or di it? He does not have a far right government but will the new one be better than the one it replaces? sometimes very intelligent people can be very stupid. The more important question is who is likely to succeed Macron. We do not know!

Iran

A progressive upset the hard liners and won. his main problem is Trump. Trump last time pulled out of an agreement that was beneficial to all nations for no reason except that Obama has advanced it. If trump wins and then adopts the same policies then Iran has no reason to trust the USA at all or to reduce its nuclear program. Make no mistake this vote was both against the wearing of headscarves and opening up the economy.

USA

Say it ants so Joe. biden should withdraw if only because all the attention is on him after the first debate and it will always be so not Trump. That guarantees defeat not victory. we should get fair dinkum no-ne but no-one puts up a candidate who is gone mentally so we can be confident his debate performance was a  one -off but the strategy after that was woeful. The excuses were laughable. moreover they should have had Biden doing press conferences and interviews showing the debate was a one-off not waiting TEN days.

some people might say this is not fair however politics is not fair!

Around the Traps 5/7/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Martin on cheaper-mortgages-tamed-inflation-and-even-higher-home-prices-how-29-forecasters-see-australias-economic-recovery-in-2024
• Ross Gittins on interest-rate-speculators-should-get-back-in-their-box , despite-what-were-led-to-believe-tax-breaks-are-no-free-lunch
• Emily Foley on fatima-payman-breached-caucus-solidarity-what-does-this-mean-and-why-is-it-so-significant
• Jeff Borland on increasing-annual-leave-to-five-weeks-would-cost-employers-less-than-you-might-think
• Andrew Young on australias-long-awaited-national-anti-corruption-body-is-a-year-old-is-it-meeting-expectations
• Jason Harris on asic-has-comprehensively-failed-and-its-role-should-be-split-in-two-according-to-long-awaited-report
• croaking cassandra on reading-reserve-bank-plans-and-budgets
• Kevin Bonham on the-payman-suspension
• Jonathan Karnon and Andrew Partington on ambulance-ramping-is-getting-worse-in-australia-heres-why-and-what-we-can-do-about-it

OZ climate

• nsw-wind-and-solar-auction-comes-up-short-with-one-winning-project-already-built
  
• they-just-fit-in-with-what-we-do-farmers-reap-rewards-as-they-play-host-to-wind-and-solar
  
• missing-link-more-than-420-neighbourhood-batteries-approved-to-boost-rooftop-solar-and-storage-capacity
  
• australia-inches-towards-renewable-targets-as-most-advanced-wind-and-solar-state-goes-backwards
  
• the-nuclear-and-renewable-myths-that-mainstream-media-cant-be-bothered-challenging
  
• right-wing-media-serves-up-more-nonsense-about-blackout-warnings-and-nuclear
  
• household-batteries-are-now-being-marshalled-to-deliver-very-fast-response-to-grid-security-issues
  
• Sven Teske on australias-carbon-budget-may-blow-out-by-40-under-the-coalitions-nuclear-energy-plan-and-thats-the-best-case-scenario
• Jay Gordon on gas-networks-are-making-persistent-and-significant-supernormal-profits
• Peter Martin on when-it-comes-to-power-solar-is-about-to-leave-nuclear-and-everything-else-in-the-shade
• Sven Teske on australias-carbon-budget-may-blow-out-by-40-under-the-coalitions-nuclear-energy-plan-and-thats-the-best-case-scenario
• Magnus Soderberg on nuclear-power-has-an-advantage-not-reflected-in-its-average-price-its-price-stability-and-for-some-users-that-matters
• Hussein Doi et al on why-electric-beats-hydrogen-in-the-race-to-decarbonise-freight-vehicles-in-australia
• Soroush Basirat and Simon Nicholas on hydrogens-potential-onshoring-australian-green-iron-production , hydrogen-holds-great-potential-australias-onshore-green-iron-production
• 
  

Northern America

• Drezners world on the-choice-is-biden-or-harris thanks Brad
• institutional economics on the-myth-of-wage-stagnation-in-the-US
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-let-china-pay-the-cost-of-solar-energy-and-electric-vehicles
• Daniel Flitton on so-trump-took-out-debate-what-if-biden-wins-election
• Ben Scott on tale-high-stakes-nerves-centre-white-house
• noahopinion on time-to-think-about-a-second-trump-term , assessing-the-threats-to-the-republic
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-let-china-pay-the-cost-of-solar-energy-and-electric-vehicles
• Lester Munson on the-most-realistic-way-to-replace-joe-biden-as-the-democratic-presidential-nominee-allow-him-a-graceful-exit
• Angry Bear on the-gish-gallop-tactic-used-by-trump
• David Frum on trump-should-never-have-had-this-platform
• Riley Keenan on supreme-court-makes-prosecution-of-trump-on-obstruction-charge-more-difficult-with-ruling-to-narrowly-define-law-used-against-him-and-jan-6-rioters
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-netchoice-moody-paxton-first-amendment , supreme-court-trump-immunity-dictatorship
• Richard Hasen on supreme-court-trump-immunity-john-roberts-legacy
• Tyler Cowen oon how-we-should-update-our-views-on-immigration
• Tim Harris on 2024_election_stakes_are_now_astronomical_supreme_court_has_made_the_presidency_above_the_law
• Jim Vanderhei and Mike Allen on trump-2025-imperial-us-presidency
• Frank Bowman on trump-2024-supreme-court-immunity-ruling-be-afraid
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-trump-immunity-president-seal-team-six-assassinate-rival , supreme-court-maga-john-roberts-trump-handmaiden
• Liz Andersen on supreme-court-rules-hitler-immune-from-prosecution-for-burning-down-reichstag-seizing-absolute-power
• Brian Stelter on biden-age-debate-media-coverage
• Anne Applebaum on replace-biden-strategic-plan
• Fintan O'Toole on savior-complex-biden
• David Remnick on the-reckoning-of-joe-biden
• Steve Vladeck on supreme-court-chevron-roberts
• Abdallah Fayyad onold-politicians-gerontocracy-age-limits
• the conversable economist on patriotism-melting-pot-salad-bowl-chocolate-fondue

Europe

• Alex Tabarrok on how-the-german-welfare-state-punishes-performance
• Patrick Shea on what-happens-next-in-ukraines-debt-negotiations-could-change-the-course-of-the-war
• Mainly Macro on why-tactical-voting-in-this-election-could-change-the-nature-of-the-UK's-political-debate
• renew economy on eu-surpasses-50-pct-renewable-power-share-for-first-time-in-first-half-of-2024-germany-at-65-pct
• Renaud Foucard on russia-has-become-so-economically-isolated-that-china-could-order-the-end-of-war-in-ukraine
• Isaac Chotiner on why-the-french-far-right-triumphed

Asia

• Henry Storey on china-s-spluttering-growth-engines
• Jeffrey Robertson on south-korea-s-nuclear-ambition-holds-place-national-consciousness
• Jane Hardy on putin-goes-pyongyang-should-we-be-worried
• Paras Natna on chandrababu-naidu-modi-s-coalition-partner-complements-his-global-outlook
• Evan Freidin on india-s-plan-world-without-cash
• Ved Shinde on why-modi-will-go-moscow
• Joshua Leifer on a-moral-strategic-and-diplomatic-abyss-israel

Wonk

• Susi Ferrarello on are we all hypocrites Thanks Nick
• XN Iraki on kenya-unrest-the-deep-economic-roots-that-brought-gen-z-onto-the-streets
• Tim Harford on shakespeares-forgotten-legacy-hyperbolic-numbers
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-central-bank-credibility-and-institutional-resilience
• noahopinion on the-elemental-foe
• Ashton Robinson on south-africa-strange-noises-cabinet
• Tyler Cowen on an-overly-simple-model-of-positive-and-negative-contagion

General

• Adhi Oktaviana et al on found-in-a-cave-in-indonesia-we-can-now-show-the-worlds-oldest-figurative-art-is-51-200-years-old

Climate

• skeptical science on fact-brief-lag
• the conversable economist on world-energy-some-snapshots
• open mind on how-hot

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• its-lumbar-time-wrong-inference-because-of-conditioning-on-a-reasonable-but-in-this-case-false-assumption
  
• toward-a-shnerbian-theory-that-establishes-connections-between-the-complexity-nonlinearity-chaotic-dynamics-number-of-components-of-a-system-and-the-capacity-to-infer-causality-from-datasets
  
• what-was-going-on-in-statistics-in-1990
  
• interactive-and-automated-data-analysis-thoughts-from-di-cook-hadley-wickham-jessica-hullman-and-others
  
• holes-in-bayesian-statistics-my-talk-tomorrow-at-the-bayesian-conference-based-on-work-with-yuling
  
• obnoxious-receipt-from-spirit-airlines
  
• a-columbia-surgeons-study-was-pulled-he-kept-publishing-flawed-data
  
• grappling-with-uncertainty-in-forecasting-the-2024-u-s-presidential-election
  
• you-can-guarantee-that-the-term-statistical-guarantee-will-irritate-me-heres-why-and-lets-go-into-some-details
  
• Freakometrics on contribution of machine learning in modelling rare values and imbalanced data
• Kaiser Fung on combining-probabilities

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Emma Shortis on american-authoritarianism-has-a-long-history-what-can-it-tell-us-about-trump-and-the-battle-for-americas-soul
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading , emergency-money

Vox Wonk

• changes-global-corporate-bond-markets-and-dynamics-around-investment-grade-threshold
  
• europes-demographic-winter-and-new-eu-fiscal-rules
  
• capital-21st-century-ownership-firms-producing-raw-materials
  
• sequential-contrast-effects-hiring-and-admission-interviews
  
• economic-consequences-geopolitical-fragmentation-evidence-cold-war
  
• the-return-of-industrial-policies
  
• economic-consequences-geopolitical-fragmentation-evidence-cold-war
  
• evaluating-spring-budget-and-uks-fiscal-rules
  
• how-students-parents-and-teachers-affect-integration-minorities-classroom
  
• digital-euro-can-strengthen-financial-stability-limits
  
• educational-scarring-and-cost-business-cycles
  
• gendered-change-150-years-transformation-us-hours
  
• new-curse-critical-minerals
  
• lessons-history-how-removing-barriers-knowledge-can-spur-innovation