Not Trampis

Sunday, 5 April 2020

Police acting badly again

Before I start let me emphasise the most important thing that needs to be policed is social distancing, that is people being 1.5 metres or 6 feet away from another human. If this is the case you will not get the coronavirus even if a person has it and coughs or speaks in your direction.
Being at home simply accentuates this but it is social distancing which is the key.

Being at home all the time is horrible. You need to get out albeit using social distancing in anything you do when outside home. I would go as far as saying keeping people cooped up at home is bad for mental health. I cannot emphasise how problematic it is for a family or most of them to be at home all day. We are all used to working away from home and the social interaction we engage with at work.
Being at home all day simply gets on your goat even for a social recluse like myself.
It is not natural.
(Working from home means you miss out on the social interaction. A lot of that gives senior and middle management information they need to make decisions as I learnt from my MBA.)
Police seem to have no understanding of this possibly because it does not affect them.

There have been two acts of utter stupidity by police in recent days.

There is now the infamous example of a person who was running who then bought a kebab and then went to a parkbench and started to eat it alone on the parkbench. Police then fined him. The NSW Police Commissioner we must assume agreed with this action.
This man was NOT doing anything wrong i.e. he was upholding social distancing principles but he was fined nevertheless.

My son , who works nightfill on the weekends , tells me a tale of the nightfill manager was walking home after working at around 2 a.m. in the morning. The police pulled up and asked him what he was doing. He told them he was walking home after working. They asked who he worked for. He pointed to his shirt and said the company.
They then asked if they called the manager whether he would verify this. He told them he was the manager. They then left.

This is embarrassing. At best people will lose respect for the police and at worst people will have disdain and even contempt for the police.
We do not need this.

Moreover if police keep up this stupid way of policing then people will rebel against social distancing and Australia will be worse for everything.

The NSW Police commissioner needs to wake up to himself and realise what the real problem is that is social distancing

Saturday, 4 April 2020

Coronavirus and voting

In these times of social distancing which we should remember will continue until we have a vaccine there is a problem with voting. Not everyone can vote because of the social distancing involved on one day.

What to do?

Simple let us go back to the future.

Why do we not change to vote over various days if not weeks depending on how many people could vote.

Let us remember this was still occurring in the UK in the early 20th Century. Okay the result will take more time BUT it is safe.

Thursday, 2 April 2020

Around the Traps 4/4/20

It is time again for Around the Traps

coronavirus stuff is mainly in wonk, Andrew Gelman and vox wonk ~~mainly~~

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Albert Van Dijk et al on a-major-scorecard-gives-the-health-of-australias-environment-less-than-1-out-of-10
renew economy on covid-19-could-stop-new-australia-wind-and-solar-projects-wipe-out-global-growth ,australias-first-pumped-hydro-project-in-40-years-gets-green-light , renewable-hydrogen-to-undercut-gas-on-price-but-not-the-answer-for-transport , big-batteries-get-ready-to-play-main-role-in-next-stage-of-clean-energy-transition, good-news-and-bad-for-solar-farms-as-aemo-reverses-some-transmission-losses, solar-constraints-could-be-relaxed-before-end-of-april-clearing-path-for-new-projects
Croaking Cassandra on the-government-should-insist-the-ocr-be-deeply-negative-for-now , coronavirus-economics-and-policy-april-fools-edition , measure-what-is-measurable-and-make-measurable-what-is-not-so
Brendan Coates on new-oecd-estimates-suggest-a-22-hit-to-australias-economy
Quentin Grafton and Tom Kompass on modelling-suggests-going-early-and-going-hard-will-save-lives-and-help-the-economy
Jacinta Carroll on coronavirus-has-seriously-tested-our-border-security-have-we-learned-from-our-mistakes
Peter Martin on the-key-to-the-success-of-the-130-billion-wage-subsidy-is-retrospective-paid-work
John Quiggin on what-should-the-post-coronavirus-economy-look-like , dump-inflation-targeting, australias-post-war-recovery-program-provides-clues-as-to-how-to-get-out-of-this
Michael Rose on why-closing-our-borders-to-foreign-workers-could-see-fruit-and-vegetable-prices-spike
Dick Grant on covid-19-new-zealand-isolated-yet-far-alone
Greg Jericho on coronavirus-shows-australias-tax-cuts-were-based-on-pure-fantasy
Stephen Duckett et al on if-coronavirus-cases-dont-grow-any-faster-our-health-system-will-probably-cope
Richard Holden on vital-signs-scott-morrison-is-steering-in-the-right-direction-but-were-going-to-need-a-bigger-boat
Elizabeth Stephens on weve-known-about-pandemic-health-messaging-since-1918-so-when-it-comes-to-coronavirus-what-has-australia-learnt
Jen Jackson on morrison-has-rescued-childcare-from-covid-19-collapse-but-the-details-are-still-murky

Northern America

Brad De Long on cases-and-deaths-from-coronavirus-doubling-every-three-days-is-very-bad-news-indeed
Menzie Chinn on the-economy-in-a-time-of-covid-19
New Deal Democrat on brace-yourselves-the-us-is-setting-up-a-ghastly-natural-experiment
David Roberts on coronavirus-in-us-trump-republicans-democrats-survey-epistemic-crisis
David Appell on us-deaths-consistently-lagging-cases-by-about-two-weeks
Stephen Kirchner on the-us-labour-market-in-the-great-suppression
Peter Sinclair using Kruggers on we-have-always-been-at-war-with-eastasia
Peter Beinart on trump-finally-saw-benefits-preventing-death
The Pollbludger on trumps-ratings-improvement-sustainable
Aaron Rupar on trump-coronavirus-crisis-impeachment-trial-professor-pamela-karlan-warning
Progrowth Liberal on credit-spreads-comparing-covid-19-to-the-collapse-of-Lehmann-bros
Aaron Bycoffe et al on coronavirus-polls

Europe

Aedin Doris on economic-and-social-review-spring-issue-published
stumbling and mumbling on the-tories-dilemma
Mainly Macro on following-science-or-national-scandal

Asia

Mubashar Hasan on coronavirus-and-threat-south-asian-democracy
Stephen Dziedzic on singapore-s-vulnerability-large-and-growing-pool-older-people
Haiqing Yu and Michael Keane on masking-power-in-the-age-of-contagion-the-two-faces-of-china-in-the-wake-of-coronavirus
Bernard Avishai on amid-a-political-and-public-health-crisis-israels-opposition-leader-shocks-everyone-by-ceding-power-to-netanyahu
Fadhilah Primandari on covid-19-jokowi-must-win-back-people-s-trust-after-early-missteps
Jennifer Yang Hu on danger-meme-countering-visual-disinformation-asia-s-elections

Wonk

Alexandre Wake on doom-surfing-and-fact-checkers-prosper-covid-19-infodemic
Uneasy Money on my-paper-hayek-deflation-gold-and-nihilism-is-now-available-on-ssrn/
Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-banks-on-the-brink , guest-contribution-black-swans-like-covid-19-are-forecastable , ma-rogers-zhou-global-economic-and-financial-effects-of-21st-century-pandemics-and-epidemics
Tim Harford on how-not-to-lose-your-mind-in-the-covid-19-age, why-its-too-tempting-to-believe-good-news-about-the-coronavirus
Pro Growth Liberal on remdesivir-and-transfer-pricing, remdesivir-and-transfer-pricing-part-ii
Nick Rowe on relative-supply-shocks-unobtainium-walras-law-and-the-coronavirus
Alex Ward on coronavirus-usa-china-brazil-mexico-spain-italy-iran
The Grumpy Economist on beyond-testing-central-question-for-pandemic-policy
the conversable economist on aging-demographic-transition-and-the-necessary-adjustments , is-it-getting-harder-for-research-to-boost-productivity
Luke Zaphir on how-not-to-fall-for-coronavirus-bs-avoid-the-7-deadly-sins-of-thought
Mark F Briskey on democracy-and-despots-protecting-political-leaders-covid-19
Variable variability on corona-virus-update-tests-tests-tests-and-how-they-work
Nick Gruen on crowdsourcing-the-crisis-with-a-blast-from-the-past ,information-ignorance-trade-offs-and-system-collapse
James empty blog on the-new-study-from-ic, lombardy-lockdown-is-working
Mark Beeson on what-if-realists-are-right
Anna Boucher on covid-19-not-only-health-crisis-it-s-migration-crisis
stumbling and mumbling on inequality-morals-marxism
Mark the Graph on analysis-by-differencing.
Open Mind on coronavirus-washington-dc-fumbles-washington-state-scores
Stoat on coronavirus-days-masks

General

Ingrid Robeyns on the-role-of-semi-academic-blogs-during-physical-isolation
Cameron Webb on can-mosquitoes-spread-coronavirus

Climate

Dana Bergstrom et al on anatomy-of-a-heatwave-how-antarctica-recorded-a-20-75-c-day-last-month
and Then Theres Physics on sometimes-its-never-good-enough
Graham Readfearn on climate-crisis-may-have-pushed-worlds-tropical-coral-reefs-to-tipping-point-of-near-annual-bleaching
Moyu on ncepncar-reanalysis-surface-temperature-down-in-march

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Retired genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

David Appell on time-spent
Tanya Alred on the-spin-top-10-cricket-reads-for-a-long-and-yawning-summer
Tyler Cowen on what-should-you-read-during-the-crisis

Vox wonk

Wednesday, 1 April 2020

Has Trump markedly changed?

The great thing about the internet is someone writes something you wanted to. In my position it is usually better than I would have done.

Donald trump yesterday was markedly different at his press conference. It was like the rest where it was a rally of sorts for him to be re-elected. It seemed as though the reality of the virus finally hit home.

Now don't get me wrong Trump being Trump did not say he had changed and of course there were the usual ies such as the USA has done more tests than any other country. No in per capita terms which is the only way to measure it they are way down. It is one of the reasons they have so many deaths. Strange how they have more deaths or cases than China.

Anyway read David Appell

However this is going to be Trump's reality

perhaps not markedly

Tuesday, 31 March 2020

Did Australia rocket out of the Depression?

Jim Rose made this false claim yesterday. He got mad when challenged on this point.
I wrote about this topic when I first started this blog here.
Please note from the link what occurred.

Firstly Australia had negative growth before the Crash and then of course after it happened. There was a miserly recovery in 1931 which was cut off straight away by the utterly stupid budget of 1931,
Secondly we get a recovery after that but only a tepid one. Some rocket!

Compare those rates to the USA. They had growth rates of 10.8, 8.9, 13.9 and 5.1 ( this is affected by the equally stupid budget of 1936).
so the weakest growth in the USA is the strongest we have here!

What about employment I hear you say. Well just remember employment is affected by various factors. real wage rates, exchange rate changes, etc.

The major reason why growth spikes up in 1933 is the massive devaluation. ( David Gruen is interesting on this topic). Unemployment was already high at over 8% before the Depression. It fell from almost 30 % at its height to 20 odd % by 1933 thanks to that massive devaluation. Remember manufacturing was way more important in those days. The devaluation did as both Keynes and Hawtrey wanted and allowed inflation to rise and hence real wages fell. ( few people realise that Keynes first priority was a large devaluation, public works spending came second.)

Now US unemployment if measured correctly as ironically Germany did in the 30s fell to just under 10%. Again much more impressive than Australia. If only Roosevelt had have curt real wages then possibly the USA like Germany would have been at full employment by 1936

Here in Australia unemployment fell to 8% at best which is the mark of a recession. It fell to under 4% after the war started showing just how bad fiscal policy was post Depression. Please not however 1931 was the only highly restrictive budget and it was somewhat obviated by the States who could not just stop infrastructure spending.

Finally let us visit New Zealand for a second. I cannot get many stats for this country but this article shows male employment for the country. Again notice the only time we see employment rocketing is after 1936 when there was a clear change of policy.

Alas Jim has been talking porkies on both Australia and New Zealand. during the depression. so sad however I still like him.

not quite an update:

If expansionary austerity works then it would work all the time right. We found out some time ago it did not. for example see HERE and HERE for example.

Every country that adopted austerity after the GFC gained themselves a depression. Estonia and Ireland come to mind. Greece was promised by the Troika it would lead to recovery. It lead Greece to face conditions worse than the great depression!

As has been stated numerous times Ireland has adopted austerity three times. It worked only once. Why did it work you ask? Because they reduced interest rates, the exchange rate fell markedly and its biggest market, the UK, was experiencing the 'Lawson' boom.

If you believe in austerity then you are simply like the 1950s communists. You put ideology over facts.

Monday, 30 March 2020

The new Government package is on the right track

The government finally realised wage subsidies were the way to go if unemployment was not going to get to 1930s levels. On analysis it looks more equitable than the UK policy and more encompassing than New Zealand.

It seems as the government realised some time this week if they did not do something along these lines it was depression here we come. Perhaps it was the very long lines outside Centrelink offices.
I don't care. I heartily approve of the policy.

Some have argued that spending 15% of GDP is way too high. This is similar to a war and debt is simply not a problem at present.

The problem will be in when to stop. For example when are visitors allowed back into Australia. Will people have any trust in our politicians when they say the worse is behind us.both here and abroad.

Will people change their behaviour and say become more thrifty as occurred post great Depression. ( My mum and dad are examples of that.) This has enormous implications for consumer spending

Will only certain industries be affected early. tourism and travel come to mind whereas hotels, clubs, gyms do not.

I now suspect we will not reach a depression i.e. a reduction of 10% or more.

I forgot to add ensuring unemployment does not reach 20% is very important from a psychological point of view. People would be absolutely deflated and be bad for mental health. Unemployment wil get to double digits but hopefully now be well away from 20%.

Sunday, 29 March 2020

The Foxification of news is killing people and wil kill more

One of the great tragedies of the polarisation in US and now other countries politics is some people have nno idea of what the truth is.

Fox news pioneered this in the US. someone realised there were a lot of angry originator white men who simply wish to hear what they believe in.
Trump played on this and coined the phrase fake news. his supporters think critical pieces on him are fake news Just cogitate on that for a moment.
Now let us look at what US people think on the coronavirus.. Zack Beauchamp has the story. It gets worse. Those who vote republican thanks Trump is the most trusted source when it comes to the virus.

So when stupid supporters take what they think he is saying can combat the virus they die. Now it depends on how you vote if you are taking the virus seriously .

This is the natural extension if you portray news which is inaccurate, it matters not id this is deliberate or because they are lazy. It is the natural extension if you portray scientists as not understanding or being biased in their presentation of anything.

Given all this it is no wonder Trump is attempting to destroy a devastating ad on his incompetence on this issue.

All in all it is a disgrace and morally disgraceful.