Around the Traps 27/3/20

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on another-sobering-chart , self-imposed-constraints-the-latest-from-the-rb, coronavirus-policy-and-economics-24-march , coronavirus-economics-and-policy-25-march
• Ann Twomey on states-are-shutting-their-borders-to-stop-coronavirus-is-that-actually-allowed
• Frank Borgiono on how-australias-response-to-the-spanish-flu-of-1919-sounds-warnings-on-dealing-with-coronavirus
• Ross Gittins on for-this-to-work-we-must-really-be-all-in-this-together
• Kevin Bonham on coronavirus-and-australian-politicians
• Nick Gruen on targetting-and-the-stimulus-who-should-pay-the-rent
• The Kouk on australias-economic-rescue-package-is-a-step-in-the-right-direction-but-we-needed-a-leap
• Bruce Mountain on snowy-2-0-is-a-wolf-in-sheeps-clothing-it-will-push-carbon-emissions-up-not-down
• Stephen Kirchner on itd-be-a-mistake-to-shut-financial-markets-more-than-ever-we-need-them-to-work, rba-needs-to-follow-the-fed-and-go
• Greg Jericho on when-it-comes-to-unemployment-in-australia-definitions-have-been-broken
• Katherine Murphy on stuart-roberts-incompetence-on-mygov-should-accelerate-his-own-social-isolation
• renew economy on plans-to-direct-climate-funds-to-coal-plant-upgrades-rejected-by-panel , acciona-to-build-huge-1gw-wind-farm-in-queensland-after-landing-cleanco-deal
• Ken Henry on the-unemployment-rate-doesnt-go-back-to-normal-after-a-recession-there-are-long-term-effects
• Jeff Borland on which-jobs-are-most-at-risk-from-the-coronavirus-shutdown
• C Raina McIntyre on to-get-on-top-of-the-coronavirus-we-also-need-to-test-people-without-symptoms

Northern America

• Brad De Long on the-trump-administration-has-made-america-1-worst-in-the-world-at-coronavirus-response, /trump-covid19-testing-failure
• David Appell on us-that-hitch-is-gone
• Robert Waldmann on hydroxychloroquine-anthony-fauci-and-kevin-drum
• Sean Illing on coronavirus-covid-19-spanish-flu-pandemic-john-barry
• Daniel Politi on intelligence-agencies-warned-trump-likely-pandemic
• David Remnick on how-the-coronavirus-shattered-trumps-serene-confidence
• Zack Beauchamp on coronavirus-covid-19-trump-polarization-data
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-february-new-home-sales
• Uri Friedman on coronavirus-united-states-vulnerable-pandemic
• the conversable economist on does-us-tax-code-favor-automation-over-jobs
• Kevin Drum on trump-says-jump-wingers-ask-how-high  Thanks Brad
• Nouriel Roubini on coronavirus-greater-great-depression
• Sussan Glasser on letter-from-trumps-washington/the-trump-oclock-follies

Europe

• Alexasndre Dayant on covid-19-and-migration-europe-must-resist-populist-pill

Asia

• JJ Rose on coronavirus-and-hong-kong-protest-movement
• Greta Nabbs-Keller on covid-19-indonesia-s-crises-can-severely-reverberate-neighbours
• Sheila Coronel on philippines-covid-19-will-devastate-poor
• Alex Oliver and Richard McGregor on covidcast-episode-3-china-story
• Timothy Rich et al on public-judgment-south-korea-s-covid-19-response

Wonk

• Chris Mackie on thucydides-and-the-plague-of-athens-what-it-can-teach-us-now
• Cassandra's Legacy on coronavirus-for-nonm-italians-aka-your-government-is-not-taking-this-seriously-enough
• Sandwichman on the-hammer-and-dance
• Barkley Rosser on the-oil-price-war
• stumbling and mumbling on against-aggregate-demand
• the conversable economist on can-economy-just-be-put-on-hold-for-a-few-months
• James Empty blog on mitigation-vs-suppression
• Mainly Macro on the-economic-and-political-effects-of-this-coronavirus-pandemic
• Eric Kramer on thanks-milton-friedman
• Natasha Kassam on disinformation-and-coronavirus
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-oceans-apart-china-and-other-systemically-important-economies, guest-contribution-charting-this-crisis , guest-contribution-macroeconomic-nowcasting-in-times-of-covid-19-crisis-on-the-usefulness-of-alternative-data
• John Edwards on after-coronavirus-where-world-economy-will-stand
• Tim Harford on why-the-crisis-is-a-test-of-our-capacity-to-adapt

General

• nuttin

Climate

• Real Climate on further-perspectives-on-pandemics-and-climate-change
• and Then Theres Physics on some-thoughts-about-science-advice
• skeptical Science on the pros and cons of planting trees to address global warming
• Metoffice on climate-change-to-bring-heavier-rainfall-events
• Graham Readfearn and Adam Morton on great-barrier-reef-suffers-third-mass-coral-bleaching-event-in-five-years
• Stoat on coronavirus-days-and-global-warming

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• as-a-girl-shed-been-very-gullible-but-she-had-always-learned-more-that-way
• new-dataset-coronavirus-tracking-using-data-from-smart-thermometers
• some-recommendations-for-design-and-analysis-of-clinical-trials-with-application-to-coronavirus
• what-is-the-probability-that-someone-you-know-will-die-from-covid-19
• why-we-sleep-a-tale-of-institutional-failure
• are-we-ready-to-move-to-the-post-p-0-05-world
• lessons-from-first-online-teaching-experience-after-covid-19-regulations
• corona-virus-presentation-by-the-dutch-cdc-also-some-thoughts-on-the-audience-for-these-sorts-of-presentations
• the-value-or-lack-of-value-of-preregistration-in-the-absence-of-scientific-theory
• lets-do-preregistered-replication-studies-of-the-cognitive-effects-of-air-pollution-not-because-we-think-existing-studies-are-bad-but-because-we-think-the-topic-is-important-and-we-want-to-unders
• for-the-cost-of-running-96-wells-you-can-test-960-people-and-accurate-assess-the-prevalence-in-the-population-to-within-about-1-do-this-at-100-locations-around-the-country-and-youd-have-a-spatial
• Free Range Statistics on covid19-cfr-demographics
• Statschat on another-reason-why-we-dont-know-the-covid-19-mortality-rate , chloroquine-and-covid
• James empty blog on a-few-more-thoughts-about-parameter-estimation-and-uncertainty-in-epidemic-modelling, fitting-covid-19-seir-model-to-data-part 2 , more-on-parameters-and-rates
• Kaiser Fung on how-to-act-like-a-data-scientist-8-dont-use-lagging-indicators-to-forecast, note-about-fitting-and-visualizing-exponential-models
• Mark the Graph on covid19-and-exponential-growth

Retired genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• Freakometrics on reinforcement in learning in  economics and finance

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Daniel Flitton on books-quarantine-hugh-white-suggests-plus-time-classics
• Ingris Robeyns on free-readings
• Tim Harford on book-of-the-week-12-the-misinformation-age-by-caitlin-oconnor-and-james-owen-weatherall
• Ezra Klein and Roge Karma on vox-coronavirus-covid-19-daily-reading-list-monday

Vox wonk

• coronavirus-perceptions-and-economic-anxiety
• proposal-covid-credit-line
• pandemics-and-social-capital
• stress-tests-banks-liquidity-insurers-time-covid
• supply-side-matters-guns-versus-butter-covid-style
• global-value-chains-and-trade-protection
• strengthening-automatic-stabilisers-could-help-combat-next-downturn
• saving-china-coronavirus-and-economic-meltdown-experiences-and-lessons
• coronavirus-impact-stock-prices-and-growth-expectations
• rapidly-identifying-workers-who-are-immune-covid-19-and-virus-free-priority-restarting-economy
• proposal-negative-sme-tax
• news-and-uncertainty-about-economic-fallout-covid-19
• covid-perpetual-eurobonds
• covid-19-crisis-calls-pre-emptive-monitoring-production-and-distribution-chains
• european-bank-regulators-aren-t-yet-doing-what-it-takes
• some-thoughts-covid-19-labour-mobility-perspective
• coronavirus-and-financial-stability-20-act-jointly-now-also-think-about-tomorrow
• memo-trade-ministers-how-trade-policy-can-help-fight-covid-19
• esm-must-help-against-pandemic-case-spain
• transition-steps-stop-covid-19-without-killing-world-economy
• covid-19-euro-area-safe-asset-and-fiscal-capacity-are-needed-now
• capital-investment-versus-labour-productivity
• political-economy-covid-motivated-helicopter-drops
• eu-solidarity-fighting-covid-19
• fault-lines-fiscal-monetary-policy-coordination
• testing-testing-times
• covid-19-pandemic-letter-g20-leaders
• coronavirus-crisis-no-2008

We are facing a depression and there will be no sharp recovery

There is too much of the econmy shut down for Australia ( and other countries) not to experience a depression i.e. a drop in output of 10% or more).

Just think over and above the industries shut down.
Who is going to go to the dentist, doctor etc when there is such uncertainty
Who is going to buy a takeaway.
Who is going to get a tradie to do anything unless it is essential like a toilet.

The very large elephant in the room is the highly indebted household sector. This has the potential to blow up the economy.

Once all this is mostly over the recovery will take time.
Supply chain problems have not gone away.
People will attempt to build up their savings to begin with. Again this means no gyms, few coffees, not very many restaurant meals etc.

Be scared, Be very scared.

In terms of politics the budget deficit looks rising to at least 10% of GDP. Yep even Sinclair Davidson might believe that is expansionary.
The nest election will be all about responsible fiscal consolidation which is something Sinclair Davidson knows nothing about.
As Wayne Swan found out if you try austerity too quickly it simply slows the econmy down.


Update:
As Ken Henry says the-unemployment-rate-doesnt-go-back-to-normal-after-a-recession-there-are-long-term-effects,

Just don't cover Trump's Press conferences

People always beat me on subjects.
James Fallows does it here.
Trump is again out of his depth. He ignorance on coronavirus simply oozes out.  Faucci always has an embarrassed look and tries unsuccessfully not to contradict what Trump has just said. ( compare that to what occurs here in OZ).

Trump is dangerous and his supports and acolytes will believe the lies he espouses and it will be deadly.
Just don't give the man oxygen to confuse people who do not know better!

Trump is very dangerous because he is so ignorant and quite ironically to the very people who support him.

Measuring mortality rates with Coronavirus

Statschat is a great blog. Deals with statistics as you might expect.
today there is a really interesting post which is called

another-reason-why-we-dont-know-the-covid-19-mortality-rate

A few musings on the Coronavirus and Australia

WHY is there such a large number of people getting the virus but so few people dying from
 it ? If the worse that occurs here us that a lot of people have to self isolate  for two weeks then I am all for that. .

I tend to think a depression is inevitable. Forget about modelling. Businesses shut down, people losing jobs, more and more people self isolating and do not forget community sport. Think about the bakeries and butchers who will not be selling all those rolls and sausages.
If schools are closed then this is a certainty. Grandparents can no longer look after their grandchildren

Do not ever say Australians are good people. They are as selfish as any and they have no confidence in their political class.  The behaviour I have seen in supermarkets has been nothing short of disgraceful. People using buses to go and raid supermarkets in small country towns is possibly the worst example of this.

Programs to help with depression will need to be high on the agenda. Few people will be able to cope with the inability to meet and socialise with people.

I forget to talk about the budget. The fiscal response is I believe 9.7% of GDP with more on the way. however just remember even if your business gets a revival because of this can you respond if your supply chain is still suspended. The answer is obvious. No!

The other thing is no country town which was decimated by bushfires will now get any boost from tourism. Country Australia is stuffed.

Update:

Can we please have clear messaging. Morrison says schools are not closed and send you kiddies there. Gladys says keep them at home. On this i am with Morrsion who has kids as opposed to Gladys who does not.

Think about it. Grandparents will not be able to look after children so it will have to be parents. It guarantees a depression ( a drop in Output of 10% or more.) and tell me again how many people have died?

Around the Traps 20/3/20

It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on games-up, a-radical-macro-framework-for-the-next-year-or-two, the-curates-egg, retail-interest-rates-fall-substantially-in-recessions, reserve-bank-still-behind-the-game, a-sobering-chart
• Jennifer Boddy et al on cabin-fever-australia-must-prepare-for-the-social-and-psychological-impacts-of-a-coronavirus-lockdown
• Mark Kenny on viral-spiral-the-federal-government-is-playing-a-risky-game-with-mixed-messages-on-coronavirus
• Siouxie Wiles on nzs-decision-to-close-its-borders-will-hurt-tourism-but-its-the-right-thing-to-do
• Sen Sendjaya et al on morrison-compassion-and-coronavirus-when-crisis-refines-leadership
• Ross Gittins on avoiding-r-word-wont-be-as-easy-as-boosting-the-june-quarter, at-last-weve-been-shown-virus-game-plan-boring
• renew economy on nsw-unveils-two-new-renewable-energy-zones-in-11-billion-net-zero-strategy, nsw-clears-path-for-17gw-wind-solar-and-storage-capacity-with-new-renewable-zones , aemc-backs-off-on-cogati-rule-change-relief-for-solar-and-wind-sector, two-solar-farms-one-wind-farm-in-queensland-hit-by-system-strength-issues , covid-and-climate-can-morrison-listen-to-experts-to-flatten-that-other-curve
• Ben Butler on the-rba-is-trying-to-un-stick-a-market-gummed-up-by-coronavirus-fear-but-theres-only-so-much-it-can-do
• Nigel Stapledon on how-will-coronavirus-affect-property-prices
• Peter Martin on reserve-bank-and-government-prepare-fresh-emergency-measures-as-markets-tumble , more-than-a-rate-cut-behind-the-reserve-banks-three-point-plan
• Gary Mortimer and Jane Bowden on how-a-time-of-panic-buying-could-yet-bring-us-together
• Greg Penney on ive-spent-14-years-on-bushfire-front-lines-and-seen-courage-in-the-face-of-death
• Issac Gross on yield-curve-control-the-reserve-banks-plan-for-when-cash-rate-cuts-no-longer-work
• Mark Gregory on telcos-are-picking-up-where-the-nbn-is-failing-heres-what-it-means-for-you
• C Raina McIntyre on the-dreaded-duo-australia-will-likely-hit-a-peak-in-coronavirus-cases-around-flu-season
• Flavio Macau on desperately-seeking-toilet-paper-pasta-or-hand-sanitiser-some-relief-is-just-weeks-away
• Stephen Kirchner on rba-leaves-the-bazooka-on-the-table
• John Daley on the-case-for-endgame-c-stop-almost-everything-restart-when-coronavirus-is-gone

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on cdc-estimates-of-covid-19-toll
• German Lopez on coronavirus-trump-covid-19-pandemic-response
• Zeesham Aleem on coronavirus-poll-democrats-republicans-trump
• the conversable economist on sick-pay-benefits, federal-debt-in-time-of-pandemic
• Linda Beale on trump-administration-continues-to-attack-the-environmental-projections-first-put-into-place-by-the-nixon-administration
• Tony Walker on lack-of-confidence-in-us-leadership-adds-to-coronavirus-panic
• New Deal Democrat on the-coronavirus-recession-probably-begins
• Brendan O'Connor and Daniel Cooper on coronavirus-may-end-up-being-a-major-player-in-the-us-presidential-election
• Peter Nicholas on trumps-instincts-undermine-us-response-to-covid
• Masha Gessen on the-coronavirus-and-the-kursk-submarine-disaster
• Barkley Rosser on the-coming-fiscal-crisis-of-state-and-local-governments
• The grumpy economist on implementing-federal-lending
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-february-existing-home-sales

Europe

• long and variable on nudging-and-banning
• Mainly Macro on coronavirus-and-consequences-of-a-compliant-media
• Progrowth Liberal on europes-response-to-coronavirus-and-the-implications-for-the-u-s

Asia

• Rodger Shanahan on iran-sanctions-vs-sympathy
• Kirsten Han on singapore-feeling-safe-enough-go-polls
• Ethan Brunner on american-jews-israel-stuck

Wonk

• Stephen Grenville on imf-ponders-international-capital-flows
• Nick Gruen on hierarchy-and-generative-orders-theorising-the-generative-order-part-one
• Peter Dorman on benefit-cost-analysis-and-coronavirus
• Barkley Rosser on to-slow-spread-of-coronovirus-end-iran-sanctions
• the conversable economist on some-ruminations-from-mars , us-and-international-stock-market-premiums-in-the-long-run , the-spanish-flu-of-1918-20, can-the-economy-just-be-put-on-hold-for-a-few-months
• Xueyin Zha on uncertain-fate-org
• Brian Resnik on coronavirus-covid-19-lockdowns-end-how-long-months-years
• Tyler Cowen on the-best-economic-plan-against-the-coronavirus
• stumbling and mumbling on against-one-trick-ponies
• Tim Harford on will-economists-ever-be-as-good-at-forecasting-at-meteorologists
• Oliver Hahl et al on The Authentic appeal of the lying demagogue 
• Uneasy Money on the-idleness-of-each-is-the-result-of-the-idleness-of-all

General

• Lotti Tajouri on what-is-a-virus-how-do-they-spread-how-do-they-make-us-sick
• Allen Cheng on how-does-coronavirus-kill
• Hassan Vally on why-are-older-people-more-at-risk-of-coronavirus
• Mike Lee and Sebastian Duchene on the-coronavirus-looks-less-deadly-than-first-reported-but-its-definitely-not-just-a-flu
• Dale Fisher on why-singapores-coronavirus-response-worked-and-what-we-can-all-learn

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on andrew-dessler-rebuts-roy-spencer
• Real Climate on coronavirus-and-climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-road-back
• are-relational-inferences-from-crowdsourced-and-opt-in-samples-generalizable-comparing-criminal-justice-attitudes-in-the-gss-and-five-online-samples
• older-americans-are-more-worried-about-coronavirus-unless-theyre-republican
• breaking-the-feedback-loop-when-people-dont-correct-their-errors
• prior-predictive-posterior-predictive-and-cross-validation-as-graphical-models
• do-these-data-suggest-that-ups-amazon-etc-should-be-quarantining-packages
• estimates-of-the-severity-of-covid-19-disease-another-bayesian-model-with-poststratification
• just-some-numbers-from-canada
• hilda-bastian-and-john-ioannidis-on-coronavirus-decision-making-jon-zelner-on-virus-progression-models
• another-bayesian-model-of-coronavirus-progression
• the-new-yorker-fiction-podcast-how-its-great-and-how-it-could-be-improved
• we-need-to-practice-our-best-science-hygiene
• my-best-thoughts-on-priors
• hes-annoyed-that-pnas-desk-rejected-his-article
• estimating-covid-19-prevalence-using-singapore-and-taiwan
• statschat on stimulating-the-economy
• Kaiser Fung on two-types-of-lockdowns-why-us-must-rethink-its-testing-policy, how-to-act-like-a-data-scientist-7-recognizing-and-correcting-biases-in-surveys-and-polls, triage-testing-is-a-terrible-idea

Retired genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• nuttin
• Freakometrics on modelling pandemics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• all-that-we-dont-know
• chaos-tools-and-thoughts
• Daniel Flitton on readers-respond-books-collect-covid-19-quarantine
• Scott Robinson on books-self-isolation-revisiting-why-nations-fail
• Tim Harford on book-of-the-week-11-uncharted-by-margaret-heffernan

Vox Wonk

• covid-19-governments-must-avoid-creating-additional-uncertainty
• economic-impact-pandemic-igm-forum-survey
• occupational-licensing-has-sizeable-impact-job-mobility-us
• inequality-and-pandemic-make-explosive-mix
• capital-market-integration-can-reduce-misallocation-evidence-india
• radar-rise-shadow-banking-europe
• debt-and-financial-crises-will-history-repeat-itself
• european-union-and-democracy-must-deliver
• citizenship-trade-inside-eu-sovereignty-rights-need-be-realigned
• helicopter-money-time-now
• impact-china-us-trade-agreement-developing-countries
• adoption-digital-technologies-firms-europe-and-us
• anticipating-financial-crisis-evidence-insider-trading-banks
• case-coordinated-covid-19-response-no-country-island
• export-restraints-medical-supplies-during-pandemic
• lack-preparation-rare-events-and-policy-implications-time-covid-19

More Eastwood tales

Well the local junior and senior cricket finals were called off.
The local football season has been postponed and in reality will not go ahead.
I took my oldest son's car to be serviced at West Ryde yesterday and at 8.15 there 5 yes 5 people on the West Ryde railway station.

I went shopping yesterday and the butchers had very little. Lots of people in Eastwood this morning around 7.30. One Butcher was putting up its prices as people were ordering!! Got most of our fruit and Veges ( gosh we are lucky in Eastwood for fresh fruit and veg).
Woolworths has no meat although we rarely buy meat from there.

It is scary