coronavirus and Eastwood

I have two weeks off.

Eastwood is interesting. Plenty of carspaces in the streets. Fewer people are using the train.

At the Shopping Centre it is unusual to see a person who is chines or of chines origin not wearing a mask.
Little rice . pasta, sugar, flour or canned vegetables  or of spaghetti and baked beans despite the limits  put on. Perhaps the limits are similar to those on A2 milk however I do not know.

Times are interesting.

The Coronavirus has hit sport for six

Sport has been affected bigtime by the coronavirus.

At present we have had few players getting the virus however most countries have essentially banned crowds at any games.
This affects the sports directly but also indirectly all the people and organisations that sell tickets, food, refreshments, parking, transport etc.

There is a huge economic affect. Moreover there is also the problem of players playing in empty stadiums. Players will not play well with no atmosphere and viewing on TV will be boring as well.
My guess is a lot of competitions will not go on.

HOWEVER this is easy here downunder as we have very few promotion and relegation sports. A competition such as the EPL will have to play out their premiership to ensure who is relegation without litigation.

I suspect all this have made a recession inevitable

Around the Traps 13/6/20

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Alfredo Paloyo on a-toilet-paper-run-is-like-a-bank-run-the-economic-fixes-are-about-the-same
• Rachel Nolan et al on entire-hillsides-of-trees-turned-brown-this-summer-is-it-the-start-of-ecosystem-collapse
• Ian Wright and Jason REynolds on a-city-by-city-guide-to-how-water-supplies-fared-in-australias-summer-of-extremes
• Debbie Willis on next-time-weve-got-to-handle-emergency-donations-better
• Gerard Fitzgerald on fever-clinics-are-opening-in-australia-for-people-who-think-theyre-infected-with-the-coronavirus-why
• Croaking Cassandra on a-few-coronavirus-economic-policy-points , jami-lee-rosss-speech, coronavirus-economics-10-march, the-unseriousness-and-unfitness-of-the-governor, why-should-the-ocr-should-be-cut-substantially
• Ross Gittins on back-in-black-one-minute-loose-talk-of-recession
• Raja Junankar on this-is-more-than-a-health-crisis-heres-a-10-point-plan-for-avoiding-recession
• Nicky Wright et al on a-rare-natural-phenomenon-brings-severe-drought-to-australia-climate-change-is-making-it-more-common
• renew economy on gaslighting-on-emissions-ieefa-says-burning-lng-worse-than-coal-for-climate , aemc-set-to-approve-demand-response-energy-trading-but-households-left-out
• Nicky Wright on a-rare-natural-phenomenon-brings-severe-drought-to-australia-climate-change-is-making-it-more-common
• John Quiggin on how-coronavirus-will-wallop-australias-economy-and-what-the-government-must-do, the-coronavirus-stimulus-program-is-labors-in-disguise-as-it-should-be
• Ross Gittins on it-will-take-time-to-get-used-to-living-with-the-virus, morrisons-trickle-down-stimulus-may-not-be-enough
• Peter Martin on morrisons-coronavirus-package-is-a-good-start-but-hell-probably-have-to-spend-more

Northern America

• Erin Hurley on elizabeth-warren-far-finished , what-difference-six-weeks-and-viral-outbreak-make-donald-trump
• David Applell on his-ignorant-narcissism-poses-risk-to-the-country
• the conversable economist on american-mobility-from-westward-ho-to-home-attachment
• Alex Tabarrok on the-lasting-effects-of-the-1918-influenza-pandemic
• Tyler Cowen on how-big-a-hit-will-the-u-s-economy-take-two-scenarios
• Calculated Risk on cleveland-fed-key-measures-show-inflation-above-2%
• Richard Maude on democrats-and-america-s-place-world-rescue-mission
• Lili Loofbourow on coronavirus-crisis-trump-spin-fail
• Macro Musings on the-decline-of-10-year-treasury
• Mathew Yglesias on trump-coronavirus-response-disaster
• Sussan Glasser on lletter-from-trumps-washington/a-president-unequal-to-the-moment 
• Barkley Rosser on are-us-treasuries-really-facing-a-liquidity-crunch
• A;ex Tabbarok on massive-us-government-failure

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on on-centrist-decline , winning-the-argument
• Mainly Macro on fiscal-rules-primer-for-budget
• Alexy Muraview on putin-for-life-many-russians-may-desire-leadership-change-but-dont-see-a-viable-alternative
• Marcus Colla on thuringian-eruption-germany

Asia

• Akimoto Kaisuke and David Walton on coping-covid-19-tokyo-olympics-loom
• Milton Osborne on mekong-khon-pi-rapids-saved-least-now
• Khang Vu on covid-19-will-kill-moon-jae-s-korea-d-tente
• Nora Schenzig on belt-and-rebranding-initiative

Wonk

• Menzie Chinn on forecasts-and-output-gaps-in-the-wake-of-covid-19-as-of-early-march
• long and variable on new-statesman-post-on-monetary-policy-and-the-virus
• the conversable economist on women-in-economics-early-stage-problem , some-coronavirus-economics
• Barkley Rosser on ranking-health-care-systems-by-country
• Croaking Cassandra on coronavirus-economics-and-policy
• Nick Gruen on the-ghost-of-descartes-economics-purposes-perspectives-and-practical-problem-solving-part-one
• stumbling and mumbling on on-unpredictability
• Tim Harford on why-moonshots-matter
• Frances Woolley on postmodern-economic-measurement-there-is-no-number-only-numbers
• Mark the Graph on covid-19-doubling-times-by-country

General

• Dennis Muller on coronavirus-is-a-huge-story-so-journalists-must-apply-the-highest-ethical-standards-in-how-they-tell-it
• David Appell on how-virus-progresses-by-country

Climate

• Moyhu on usa-temperatures-comparison-of-moyhu-and NOAA, giss-february-global-up-by-009-from-january
• and Then Theres Physics on a-couple-of-highlights
• Real Climate on why-not-use-a-clever-mathematical-trick
• David Appell on gistemp-second-warmest-february

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• estimating-the-mortality-rate-from-corona
• coronavirus-age-specific-fatality-ratio-estimated-using-stan
• non-disclosure-is-not-just-an-unfortunate-but-unfixable-accident-a-methodology-can-be-disclosed-at-any-time
• coronavirus-age-specific-fatality-ratio-estimated-using-stan
• non-disclosure-is-not-just-an-unfortunate-but-unfixable-accident-a-methodology-can-be-disclosed-at-any-time
• woof-for-descriptive-statistics
• bernie-electability-update
• coronavirus-model-update-background-assumptions-and-room-for-improvement
• a-factor-of-40-speed-improvement-thats-not-something-that-happens-the-other-day
• computer-generated-writing-that-looks-real-real-writing-that-looks-computer-generated
• naming-conventions-for-variables-functions-etc
• 100-things-to-know-from-lane-kenworthy
• statschat on stabbing-stats

Retired genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• Marc Bellamare on Peter Kennedy, Judea Pearl or both

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• counting-people
• Tim Harford on book-of-the-week-10-the-rules-of-contagion-by-adam-kucharski
• Ric Smith on book-review-contest-indo-pacific

Vox Wonk

• artificial-intelligence-central-banker
• economics-time-covid-19-new-ebook
• information-channel-monetary-policy-has-disappeared-us
• causal-effect-education-chronic-health-evidence-uk
• measuring-impact-malfunctioning-credit-markets-productivity
• procurement-regimes-and-medical-innovation
• coronavirus-and-macroeconomic-policy
• oil-price-wars-time-covid-19
• public-spending-effective-lower-bound
• uk-productivity-puzzle-cfm-survey
• covid-19-europe-needs-catastrophe-relief-plan
• declining-son-preference-us
• what-stock-market-tells-us-about-consequences-covid-19
• it-s-not-exponential-economist-s-view-epidemiological-curve

NRL in a bind

THE NRL will suspend two Canterbury players for having sex with schoolgirls.
Herein this looks very strange.

The NRL does not embrace Christianity indeed they lied about what Folau said when they said he could not play in the competition.
Yet here they are essentially saying you cannot have sex with willing people in certain circumstances.

The players themselves have not broken any laws.

Is it a bad look. Well of course I would say yes however how can it be a bad look to the secular world?  You can have sex with anyone you wish ,if they agree,. Yet it isn't in this case!!

The fiscal responce to coronavirus.

Apparently the government is announcing their fiscal response to the coronavirus today.

There wil be a lot of comparisons to the ALP's response to the GFC. This should not occur. It was entirely possible to have a depression without a fiscal response back then. A number of countries did indeed have a depression. All adopted austerity instead of fiscal expansion.

Australia in fact avoided a recession although none of the critics who proved badly wrong ever fessed yup to being wrong in their analysis.

It is different this time.

Supply chains are affected. You cannot sell anything if you do not have supplies.
Only certain people can work from home if affected. Nurses, people who work in supermarkets,, doctors, dentists etc all cannot work from home.

The government should aim to spend big not small. Since monetary policy is clearly not working fiscal policy needs to step up. It won't if the government tries to portray itself different to the ALP in 2008. This is why the RBA has been urging the Government to spend big on infrastructure. The government has been deaf.

Back then we knew it was the December quarter which would be critical to avoiding a recession hence the cash splash was targeted then. It worked. This time around it is the June quarter that is all important. as the March quarter will undoubtedly be negative.

I suspect the government will spend to little and unlike the ALP will not avoid a recession. This of course would have consequences for the budget.

If so they will hoisted on their own petard!!

Whoopsy.

I should have added the similarities between a bank run and a toilet paper run.
Some people need to understand economics! Know your subject.

Around the Traps 6/3/20

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Phillip Laird on transport-is-letting-australia-down-in-the-race-to-cut-emissions
• David Lindenmayer and Doug Robinson on logging-is-due-to-start-in-fire-ravaged-forests-this-week-its-the-last-thing-our-wildlife-needs
• Brendan Coates forget-more-compulsory-super-here-are-5-ways-to-actually-boost-retirement-incomes
• Greg Jericho on the-truth-about-budget-surpluses-its-revenue-not-spending-that-counts, coronavirus-is-the-coalitions-gfc-but-will-morrison-respond-as-rudd-did
• Croaking Cassandra on on-reading-the-official-pandemic-plan, why-economic-policymakers-need-to-respond-aggressively , yield-curve-indicators-monetary-policy-and-the-case-for-action ,take-a-macro-approach
• Ross Gittins on productivity-problem-start-at-bottom-not-at-the-top, eat-drink-and-be-merry-for-tomorrow-the-virus-wont-get-you
• Mark the Ballot on is-non-probability-sampling-problem
• renew economy on how-the-tesla-big-battery-has-smoothed-the-transition-to-zero-emissions-grid, solar-projects-some-wind-farms-hit-by-more-transmission-downgrades
• Warren Hogan on were-staring-down-the-barrel-of-a-technical-recession-as-the-coronavirus-enters-a-new-and-dangerous-phase
• Peter Martin on one-word-repeated-9-times-explains-why-the-reserve-bank-cut-its-coronavirus , economic-growth-near-an-end-as-treasury-talks-of-prolonged-coronavirus-downturn
• Alexandra Wake on the-closure-of-aap-is-yet-another-blow-to-public-interest-journalism-in-australia
• BOM on the-201920-summer-australias-summer-of-extremes
• Michael Lucy on why-are-people-stockpiling-toilet-paper-we-asked-four-experts
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-australian-and-us-rate-cuts-underline-seriousness-of-the-coronavirus-crisis
• Nick Gruen on car-manufacturing-and-australia-nothing-ventured-nothing-gained

Northern America

• Sean Illing on liberals-conservatives-american-politics-eitan-hersh
• the conversable economist on us-poverty-over-time-how-to-compare , unemployment-transition-patterns-in-and-out , time-to-end-single-house-zoning
• the grumpy economist on corona-virus-monetary-policy
• Menzie Chinn on forward-looking-components-of-economic-activity
• Alex Ward on coronavirus-covid-trump-response-fox-news

Europe

• Mehmat Ozalp on turkey-and-russia-lock-horns-in-syria-as-fear-of-outright-war-escalates
• Daniel Woker on europe-under-threat
• Tom McTague on boris-johnson-britain-dominic-cummings

Asia

• Menzie Chinn on high-frequency-economic-indicators-in-china
• Rahul Samubaju and Suryapratim Roy on indian-citizenship-has-now-been-reduced-to-us-versus-them
• Rodger Shanahan on syria-battlefield-rules
• Edmond Roy on india-s-reckless-rush-ruin
• Priya Chacko and Ruchira Talukdar on why-modis-india-has-become-a-dangerous-place-for-muslims
• Niamtullah Ibrahami on lasting-peace-in-afghanistan-now-relies-on-the-taliban-standing-by-its-word-this-has-many-afghans-concerned
• Tony Walker on netanyahu-set-to-survive-another-knife-edge-israeli-election
• James Chinn on malaysia-takes-a-turn-to-the-right-and-many-of-its-people-are-worried
• Amy Chew on malaysia-now-uncharted-waters

Wonk

• Tomn Ascott on media-literacy-magic-bullet-fake-news
• Tim Harford on why-we-need-to-disagree
• the conversable economist on warren-buffett-ruminations-on-board , thought-on-sumptuary-laws-adam-smith-to-plastic-bags
• Mainly Macro on the-economic-effects-of-pandemic
• Warwick McKibbin on the-first-economic-modelling-of-coronavirus-scenarios-is-grim-for-australia-the-world
• Rebecca Barber on syria-what-un-can-do-and-must-do
• JJ Rose on modern-slavery-reports-year-one-what-can-we-expect
• stumbling and mumbling on on-capitalist-stagnation
• Roger Farmer on contagion

General

• Jack Anderson on sun-yang-ban-shows-world-swimming-body-must-establish-an-integrity-commission
• Tom Stephenson on guide-to-the-classics-petroniuss-satyricon-sex-satire-and-naughty-boys
• Joanne McDonald on how-do-we-detect-if-coronavirus-is-spreading-in-the-community

Climate

• Variable Variability on trend-errors-raw-temperature-station-inhomogeneities
• John Church on the-world-may-lose-half-its-sandy-beaches-by-2100-its-not-too-late-to-save-most-of-them
• Moyhu on ncepncar-reanalysis-monthly-surface-unchanged-in-february , february-global-surface-templs-up-0053-from-january
• Real Climate on why-are-so-many-solar-climate-papers-flawed
• and Then Theres Physics on zharkova-et-al-retracted

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• different-challenges-in-replication-in-biomedical-vs-social-sciences
• the-paterno-defence-gladwells-tipping-point
• conditioning-on-a-statistical-method-as-a-meta-version-of-conditioning-on-a-statistical-model
• so-what-about-that-claim-that-probabilistic-election-forecasts-depress-voter-turnout
• as-usual-i-agree-with-paul-meehl-it-is-not-a-reform-of-significance-testing-as-currently-practiced-in-soft-psych-we-are-making-a-more-heretical-point-than-any-of-these-we-are-attacking-t
• coronavirus-panic-news
• what-is-the-conclusion-of-a-clinical-trial-where-p0-6
• is-data-science-a-discipline
• you-dont-want-a-criminal-journal-you-want-a-criminal-journal
• statschat on viral-misinformation-misinformation
• Kaiser Fung on eight-unanswered-questions-about-the-coronavirus
• Tim Harford on the-statistics-behind-the-spread-of-ideas

Retired genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• freakometrics on gini index, poverty and yop shares
• Marc Bellamare on assessing the the extent of SUTVA violations

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• deaths-of-despair
• whats-wrong-and-right-with-economics
• Tim Harford on book-of-the-week-9-loonshots-by-safi-bahcall

Vox Wonk

• why-east-germans-are-not-taking-advantage-large-wage-gap-between-east-and-west-germany
• networking-frictions-venture-capital-and-gender-gap-entrepreneurship
• article/gdpr-and-internet-interconnection
• fundamentals-safe-assets
• consequences-brexit-uk-inflation-and-living-standards-first-evidence
• effect-bank-capital-requirements-real-economy-and-their-interaction-monetary-policy
• are-financial-crises-demand-or-supply-shocks
• public-interventions-banking-sector
• mergers-and-merger-policy-digital-markets
• public-interventions-banking-sector
• biological-clocks-import-competition-and-gender-gap-earnings
• women-economics-profession-new-ebook

A very good example of Australians lacking trust in politicians

Last night I was at a woolworths supermarket.
No rise, No flour, No toilet paper, little cans of tomatoes, lentils chick peas etc, few cans of spaghetti, baked beans etc.

When some Woolworths toilet papers came out, you know the cheap stuff, there was almost a riot when it was said they were limiting people to taking four each.

Apart from being extremely stupid this shows a complete lack of trust in our political leadership.