Pot Pouri

Lots of interesting stuff around the place.

Here is a few.

• Mainly Macro on the-economic-effects-of-pandemic
• Mark the Ballot on is-non-probability-sampling-problem
• Andrew Gelman on so-what-about-that-claim-that-probabilistic-election-forecasts-depress-voter-turnout
• Greg Jericho on coronavirus-is-the-coalitions-gfc-but-will-morrison-respond-as-rudd-did
• Rodger Shanahan on syria-battlefield-rules
• renew economy on tesla-big-batterys-stunning-interventions-smooths-transition-to-zero-carbon-grid
• Warwick McKibbin on the-first-economic-modelling-of-coronavirus-scenarios-is-grim-for-australia-the-world

Enjoy

It is revenue that produced budget Surpluses

Greg Jericho writes a good article on the above.
We have been through this umpteen times. If your revenue is weak so the is the budget bottom line.

The last time the ALP were in government revenue was very weak. Indeed so weak it was back at 'Keating' levels as a % of GDP despite what Sinclair Davidson and the rest of the goebbels group attempted to say. Remember revenue was roaring.It just didn't get to very high levels. Despite this we should have had a surplus. The reasoning was extremely specious. and easily shown to be false. A derivation was commodity prices were strong so we should have a budget surplus. the innumerate JC used to say this. He could not read budget papers. If he could he would have seen company tax was weak. There was no link between commodity prices and tax revenues. This was mainly the result of tax losses .

Despite immediately promising to deliver a surplus the coalition did not. They wil only do it if revenues are strong.

Around the Traps 29/2/20

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on orr-speaking, a-tweet-from-the-reserve-bank. government-spending-and-revenue-some-comparisons
• John Quiggin on this-time-is-different-australias-tourist-numbers-may-take-years-to-recover, one-cheer-for-labors-2050-zero-net-emissions-target
• Andrew King et al on why-drought-busting-rain-depends-on-the-tropical-oceans
• Will Steffen on labors-climate-policy-is-too-little-too-late-we-must-run-faster-to-win-the-race-
• Ross Gittins on phone-users-have-reason-to-cheer-acccs-black-eye
• Kevin Bonham on its-joyce-joke-barnabys-senate-mutilation-madness
• Renew Economy on emarkable-esb-hails-switch-to-renewables-laments-lack-of-policy , yallourn-owner-says-technology-exists-for-low-cost-low-carbon-grid, aemc-sides-with-incumbents-against-wind-and-solar-on-transmission-losses
• Michael Keating on the-jobs-market-is-nowhere-near-as-good-as-youve-heard-and-its-changing-us
• Emma Dawson and Myfa Jordan on older-and-poorer-retirement-income-review-cant-ignore-the-changing-role-of-home
• Greg Marston et al on i-dont-want-anybody-to-see-me-using-it-cashless-welfare-cards-do-more-harm-than-good
• Bianca Fileburn and Rachel Loney-Howes on weinstein-conviction-a-partial-victory-for-metoo-but-must-not-overshadow-work-still-to-be-done
• Tony Wood on noah-smith-gives-elizabeth-warrens-economic-patriotism-plan-two-cheers-i-give-it-a-bit-less
• Greg Jericho on the-coalition-is-relying-on-a-struggling-domestic-economy-to-see-us-through-an-international-crisis
• Greg Barton on asio-chiefs-assessment-shows-the-need-to-do-more-and-better-to-prevent-terrorism
• John Mathews et al  on it-might-sound-batshit-insane-but-australia-could-soon-export-sunshine-to-asia-via-a-3-800km-cable
• Mark the Ballot on aggregated-poll-update
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-a-3-point-plan-to-reach-net-zero-emissions-by-2050

Northern America

• Farkhondeh Akbari on us-taliban-deal-what-price-peace
• Fred Kaplan on richard-grenell-dni-kashyap-patel-trump-intelligence-lackeys-danger
• Damien Spry on facebook-and-democracy-it-will-get-worse-before-it-gets-better
• the conversable economist on spending-comparison-pet-care-industry-and-national-elections
• Uneasy Money on noah-smith-gives-elizabeth-warrens-economic-patriotism-plan-two-cheers-i-give-it-a-bit-less
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-january-new-home-sales

Europe

• Mainly Macro on guardian-article-on-flooding, low-paid-jobs-for-british-workers
• Coppolla comment on a-tale-of-two-halves
• stumbling and mumbling on immigrants-as-scapegoats

Asia

• David Walton on japan-article-9-conundrum-rears-its-head-again
• Eliza Harvey on lebanon-contemplates-defaulting-its-debt-and-greater-cost
• Stephen Dziedzic on singapore-hedging-hope
• Srinjoy Bose on afghanistan-peace-or-fragmentation
• Zack Beauchamp on israeli-democracy-war-netanyahu

Wonk

• Barkley Rosser on what-is-democratic-socialism
• the conversable economist on untangling-indias-distinctive-economic-story , global-corporate-bond-markets-and-the-china-problem, left-number-bias-what-firms-havent-figured-out
• Joeph Joyce on the-long-reach-of-u-s-monetary-policyleave-a-reply
• stumbling and mumbling on incentivized-stupidity
• Croaking Cassandra on coronavirus-cant-just-be-thought-of-as-an-illness-for-other-countries , preparing
• Paul Fritjers on the-weinstein-case-and-the-longer-term-consequences-of-metoo
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-will-the-coronavirus-lead-to-global-recession

General

• Btian Resnik on katherine-johnson-death-nasa-legacy-math-hidden-figures

Climate

• Mathew Hole on we-wont-have-fusion-generators-in-five-years-but-the-holy-grail-of-clean-energy-may-still-be-on-its-way
• Quark Soup on recent-papers
• and Then Theres Physics on debate-about-communicating-tipping-points
• real climate on surprised-by-the-shallows-again
• Alan Williams et al on the-last-ice-age-tells-us-why-we-need-to-care-about-a-2-change-in-temperature
• Moyhu on usa-temperatures-averaging-and-graphics-methods

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• whats-the-american-statistical-association-gonna-say-in-their-task-force-on-statistical-significance-and-replicability
• what-up-with-red-state-blue-state
• recent-unpublished-papers
• holes-in-bayesian-statistics
• vaping-statistics-controversy-update
• deep-learning-workflowhow-to-embrace-variation-and-accept-uncertainty-in-linguistic-and-psycholinguistic-data-analysis
• new-research-suggests-sanders-would-drive-swing-voters-to-trump-and-need-a-youth-turnout-miracle-to-compensate
• mike-pence-and-rush-limbaugh-on-smoking-cancer-and-the-coronavirus
• the-great-society-reagans-revolution-and-generations-of-presidential-voting
• Variable variability on estimating-statistical-properties-inhomogeneities-homogenization
• Kaiser Fung on how-to-act-like-a-data-scientist-1m insights-from-the-n-person-election-model-nevada-and-beyond , how-to-act-like-a-data-scientist-2-whats-a-mean-tweet

Retired Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• Marc Bellamare on advanced econometrics: recent methods and issues

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• slightly-random-reading
• Tim Harford on book-of-the-week-8-deep-thinking-by-garry-kasparov

vox wonk

• how-roosevelt-s-welfare-programmes-made-america-great-again
• effects-college-education-health
• eu-bankruptcy-reform-requires-more-scrutiny
• dont-blame-it-machines-robots-and-employment-europe
• globalisation-what-s-stake-central-banks
• brexit-uncertainty-has-fallen-uk-general-election
• monetary-policy-and-bank-stability
• declining-elasticity-us-housing-supply
• shocks-frictions-and-inequality-us-business-cycles
• brexit-vote-productivity-growth-and-macroeconomic-adjustments-uk
• outside-directors-firm-behaviour-and-performance
• housing-insecurity-homelessness-and-populism

how an obsession turns you into a prat

I am very late on this so I apologise. I stay clear of Andrew Bolt. He has little intelligence and simply mouths out stuff he does not understand. What he odes well however is exacerbating those ignorant people uneducated prejudices. so he makes a lot of money.

Last week he unloaded on the ABC again. He has an obsession about the ABC. most if not all his allegations are easily found to be wrong. His guest was fellow traveler on the ABC Gerard Henderson. He of Malcolm Farr is a leftist fame. It is no wonder he thinks everyone on the ABC is of the left!

Bolt was castigating the excellent four corners program which showed a teacher at a prominent Catholic high School in Melbourne attempting to groom a student.

This was more bias by the ABC against the Catholic denomination. Apparently the ABC was out to get him. Never mind a jury of his peers found him guilty and then an Appeal court upheld that charge it was all the ABC's fault.

Bolt and Henderson then charged into the four corners program unaware just how much they were being show up as complete and utter prats.

both later made apologies when at leat the penny dropped.

This episode merely shows what occurs when you have an obsession you won't let go.

We need a carbon price

Tony Wood of the Grattan Institute has a topical article on the need for a carbon price.

I agree. It has immense advantages.
1) It internalises the costs that are not in the price. i.e the current price does not cover all its costs. 
2) This means it covers the negative externalities the product has
3) It makes trantion to a low carbon economy much easier. All industries knows what is going on and they can react in any way they wish to reduce their carbon footprint.

Painting

Yesterday I was very busy painting.

This painting came about because we are redoing the ensuite. One interesting thing found was not one but two beehives ( not live) in the woodwork near the toilet.
 Agh.

We had had to paint downstairs which we have converted into a office. It has all our computers plus our largest TV.

I have to say i hate painting. When we bought this place many moons ago I had to paint every room plus the outside toilet.

Although I cannot complain. We have made a lot of improvements over the years. always when I was between jobs.

We have redone the kitchen, laundry, dining room, ensuite, guest  bathroom, redone downstairs, the whole driveway, the roof and put solar panels on.

Just getting too old to do this much more.

Around the Traps 21/2/20

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Hal Pawson  et al on australias-housing-system-needs-a-big-shake-up-heres-how-we-can-crack-this-130291
• Dianne Kraal on in-the-midst-of-an-lng-export-boom-why-are-we-getting-so-little-for-our-gas
• John Quiggin on baristas-and-coal-miners-apples-and-oranges
• Ross Gittins on home-ownership-has-become-devouring-monster
• Croaking Cassandra on simply-unfit, nationals-economic-plan
• David Jones et al  on rain-has-eased-the-dry-but-more-is-needed-to-break-the-drought
• Michael Woods on home-owning-older-australians-should-pay-more-for-residential-aged-care
• Gary Mortimer on why-australians-fell-out-of-love-with-holdens
• Renew Economy on small-is-beautiful-as-solar-farms-look-for-ways-around-grid-chaos , victoria-intervenes-to-try-and-solve-wind-and-solar-bottlenecks-in-local-grid, cannon-brookes-teams-with-tesla-5b-to-fund-solar-and-batteries-for-fire-victims, origin-profit-hit-by-outages-and-solar-uptake-battery-plans-hostage-to-ungi
• Dennis Muller on court-ruling-against-abc-highlights-the-enormous-deficiency-in-laws-protecting-journalists-sources
• Jack Fahey on vale-holden-how-americas-general-motors-sold-us-the-australian-dream
• Stephen Duckett on young-people-dropping-private-health-hurts-insurers-most-not-public-hospitals
• David Brewster on australia-can-t-continue-divide-indian-ocean-two
• Nick Gruen on vale-holden-hoist-from-the-archives
• Grant Williamson er al on yes-the-australian-bush-is-recovering-from-bushfires-but-it-may-never-be-the-same
• Wallace Boon Law on i-made-bushfire-maps-from-satellite-data-and-found-a-glaring-gap-in-australias-preparedness
• Kevin Tolhurst on the-burn-legacy-why-the-science-on-hazard-reduction-is-contested
• Greg Jericho on we-seem-resigned-to-low-wages-growth-but-heroic-budget-predictions-roll-in

Northern America

• Elliot Hannan on white-house-memo-admits-no-imminent-threat-iran-soleimani-assassination
• Barkley Rosser on engel-criticizes-trump-on-soleimani
• Stephen Gordon on choosing the right target
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-january-housing-starts
• Aaron Rupar on trump-blagojevich-kerik-milken-negron-debartolo-pardons-corruption
• Dahlia Lithwick on william-barr-fall-department-of-justice-donald-trump
• Jeffrey Toobin on the-trouble-with-donald-trumps-pardons
• Coppolla comment on much-ado-about-nothing
• Menzie Chinn on explaining-the-administrations-economic-forecast
• the conversable economist on the-us-rental-housing-market

Europe

• long and variable on the-get-brexit-done-lot-want-cheerful-soldiers-not-philosopher-king-technocrats , eu-trade-talks-chart-crime
• stumbling and mumbling on when-reputation-misleads
• Mainly Macro on the-left-needs-to-campaign-for-social-liberalism

Asia

• Menzie Chinn on global-spillovers-of-a-china-hard-landing
• Philip Citowicki on domestic-vulnerabilities-lie-behind-china-s-aggressive-expansion
• Katie Kalinova on japan-south-korea-tensions
• Tyler Cowen on how-japan-avoided-a-bond-market-panic
• Rowan Callik on how-vulnerable-is-xi-jinping-over-coronavirus-in-todays-china-there-are-few-to-hold-him-to-account
• Nora Schenlig on coronavirus-and-flow-information-chinese-party-state
• Titlu Basu on china-japan-us-triangle-abe-s-balancing-act
• Barkley Rosser on who-got-iraqi-oil

Wonk

• Benedicte Centi-Tok on critical-minerals-are-vital-for-renewable-energy-we-must-learn-to-mine-them-responsibly
• Tim Harford on why-my-purchase-choices-have-the-kiss-of-death, the-prisoners-dilemma-at-70-at-what-we-get-wrong-about-it
• Tyler Cowen on is-5g-underperforming
• the conversable economist on writing-intro-to-your-economics-research-paper , the-herfindahl-hirschman-index-story
• stumbling and mumbling on barriers-to-cognitive-diversity
• Tony Walker on why-the-global-battle-over-huawei-could-prove-more-disruptive-than-trumps-trade-war-with-china
• Deborah Farias on politics-fire-amazon-australia
• Croaking Cassandra on what-if-covid-19-things-get-really-bad

General

• Gregory Moore on here-are-5-practical-ways-trees-can-help-us-survive-climate-change
• Larissa Chritensen et al  on grooming-what-parents-should-know-and-what-schools-should-do-if-they-suspect-it

Climate

• David Appell on the-denial-you-see-now-its-hard-to-even-take-its-measure
• mpyhu on giss-january-global-up-by-008-from-december
• Howhopper on hot-enough-for-you-faster-it-warms

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• making-differential-equation-models-in-stan-more-computationally-efficient-via-some-analytic-integration
• researcher-offers-ridiculous-reasons-for-refusing-to-reassess-work-in-light-of-serious-criticism
• how-many-patients-do-doctors-kill-by-accident
• is-it-really-true-that-candidates-who-are-perceived-as-ideologically-extreme-do-even-worse-if-they-actually-pose-as-more-radical-than-they-really-are
• this-study-could-be-just-fine-or-not-maybe-ill-believe-it-if-theres-an-independent-preregistered-replication
• a-normalizing-flow-by-any-other-name
• an-article-in-a-statistics-or-medical-journal-using-simulations-to-convince-people-of-the-importance-of-random-variation-when-interpreting-statistics
• calling-all-cats

Retired Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• Econometric Sense on randomized-encouragement
• Freakometrics on quartile regression

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• tech-self-governance
• how-do-we-know-if-things-have-got-better
• Tim Harford on book-of-the-week-6-to-engineer-is-human
• Dan Crawford on review-of-stuff-matters
• Chris Bertram on an-important-new-book-about-refugeehood

Vox Wonk

• how-bad-news-can-harm-economic-development
• promise-automated-historical-data-linkage
• place-based-payroll-taxes-and-regional-employment
• beverage-market-disruptions-and-their-trade-consequences
• bilateral-trade-imbalances-hidden-causes-and-hidden-effects
• political-risk-and-exchange-rates-lessons-brexit
• women-policymakers-do-make-difference
• euro-transfer-union-start
• leveraging-posterity-s-prosperity
• populism-political-risk-and-economy