Around the Traps 14/2/20

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Goss on making-better-use-of-australias-top-teachers-will-improve-student-outcomes-heres-how-to-do-it
• Nicholas Gruen on whitlam-didnt-really-end-our-old-honours-system-were-still-handing-orders-of-australia-to-the-wrong-people
• Croaking Cassandra on the-productivity-commission-again, product-market-regulation, an-unimpressive-mpc, the-productivity-commission
• renew economy on welcome-to-taylor-ball-how-the-game-has-changed-in-australias-energy-markets , coalition-compares-wind-and-solar-to-dole-bludgers-pushes-for-coal-nuclear, coalition-to-fast-track-three-nsw-projects-including-st-bakers-coal-plan , wind-solar-projects-warned-of-seven-year-delays-in-victoria-nsw, were-out-big-contractor-dramatically-quits-australian-solar-sector, agl-says-batteries-at-tipping-point-but-renewables-choked-by-connection-woes, wind-and-batteries-saved-the-day-when-storm-cut-south-australia-adrift
• Bjorn Stermberg on go-local-how-to-keep-the-power-on-when-disaster-hits
• Greg Jericho on the-stumbling-australian-economy-needs-rescuing , coalitions-fervour-for-a-budget-surplus-cools-as-prospects-turn-to-toast
• Minggming Chen on we-depend-so-much-more-on-chinese-travellers-now-that-makes-the-impact-of-this-coronavirus-novel
• Ross Gittins on the-great-australian-dream-is-keeping-the-economy-weak , lucky-country-has-lost-its-dynamism-and-find-where-it-is
• Allen Finkel on chief-scientist-we-need-to-transform-our-world-into-a-sustainable-electric-planet
• Matt McDonald on climate-change-security-and-australian-bushfires
• Ian Wright and Jason Reynolds on heavy-rains-are-great-news-for-sydneys-dams-but-they-come-with-a-big-caveat
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-a-connected-world-makes-this-coronavirus-scarier-but-also-helps-us-deal-with-it

Northern America

• Gorana Grcic on what-trump-s-state-union-tells-us-about-his-re-election-bid
• Menzie Chinn on why-i-still-think-june-2019-employment-is-lower-than-reported
• the conversable economist on global-r-stagnant-us-position , the-transformation-of-federal-spending, income-contingent-student-loan-repayment, telephone-switchboard-operators-rise-and-fall
• Erin Hurley on trump-impeachment-aftermath
• Ryan Goodman and Joshua Gletzer on trump-friday-night-massacre-alex-vindman-autocrat
• Dylan Mathews et al on new-hampshire-primary-winners-losers-sanders-klobuchar
• Ronald Brownstein on bernie-sanderss-narrow-victory-new-hampshire
• John Cassidy on the-new-hampshire-result-signals-a-long-nationwide-democratic-battle

Europe

• Riley Begin on irish-election-results-tie-sinn-fein-fine-gael-fianna-fail
• Mainly Macro on the-uks-place-in-world
• stumbling and mumbling on thatcherisms-death
• Maria Farrell on my-country-hard-right-or-wrong

Asia

• Haiquing Yu on the-coronavirus-and-chinese-social-media-finger-pointing-in-the-post-truth-era
• Elaine Pearson on five-urgent-issues-indonesia-s-president
• Lauren Williams on middle-east-dispatch-paper-closes-rift-opens-syria-slips
• Barkley Rosser on is-iraq-about-to-switch-from-us-to-russia

Wonk

• Tim Harford on two-cheers-for-the-dematerialising-economy
• long and variable on power-no-thanks-im-a-decently-paid-and-fulfilled-megaphone
• stumbling and mumbling on the-dangers-in-balance
• Nick Gruen on defending-the-public-interest-in-independence-in-the-age-of-deep-spin
• Norman Day on buildings-kill-millions-of-birds-heres-how-to-reduce-the-toll
• Marc Bellamare on always takers never givers
• the conversable economist on south-africa-mired-in-stagnation, winter-2020-journal-of-economic-of-economic-perspectives
• Nick Gruen on trust-and-the-competition-delusion-a-new-frontier-for-political-and-economic-reform
• Cornelia Tremann on africa-us-plays-catch-china
• Lord Keynes on academic-agent-on-excess-capacity
• Peter Temin on the roman market economy Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-questioning-the-puzzle-fiscal-policy-exchange-rate-and-inflation
• Ian Mackay and Katherine Arden on theres-no-evidence-the-new-coronavirus-spreads-through-the-air-but-its-still-possible

General

• John  Silke and Natjoua Latoui on what-is-autoinflammatory-disease-the-rare-immune-condition-with-waves-of-fever
• BOM on explainer-how-is-rain-forecast

Climate

• Idiot tracker on climate-2020-still-on-glide-path-to-disaster
• and Then Theres Physics on but-rcps
• John Cook on climate-misinformation-accountability
• Hotwhopper on judith-currys-temperature-predictions
• Open Mind on cult-of-stupidity-naming-names

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• putting-megan-higgs-and-thomas-basboll-in-the-room-together
• the-hot-hand-fallacy-fallacy-rears-its-ugly-ugly-head
• evidence-based-medicine-eats-itself
• monte-carlo-winning-the-lottery
• expert-writes-op-ed-in-nyt-recommending-that-we-trust-the-experts
• intended-consequences-are-the-worst
• how-good-is-the-bayes-posterior-for-prediction-really
• repeating the experiment
• coronavirus-hits-all-the-hot-buttons-for-promoting-the-scientist-as-hero-narrative-cognitive-psychology-edition
• sometimes-research-just-has-to-start-somewhere-and-subject-itself-to-criticism-and-potential-improvement
• Kaiser Fung on the-media-is-spreading-a-fallacy-in-ever-more-imaginative-ways

Retired Genial Dave Giles  ( economatrics)

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• n
• best presidential bios on review-of-thomas-jefferson-the-art-of-power-by-jon-meacham
• docs books on the-struggle-for-israel-1917-1947-by-bruce-hoffman , munich-by-robert-harrisThanks Jim Rose

Vox Wonk

• bank-intermediation-when-interest-rates-are-very-low-long
• addressing-gender-inequality-choice-architecture
• leverage-risk-and-investment-case-gold-clauses-1930s
• accuracy-long-term-growth-forecasts-economics-researchers
• zero-price-can-be-special
• auto-enrollment-changes-who-passive-saver
• how-deal-big-tech-mergers
• costs-cascading-trade-protection
• fog-smog-value-pollution-information
• wage-employment-nexus-tale-persistence
• foreign-exchange-swaps-hidden-debt-lurking-vulnerability

Morrison performing badly

The Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been performing poorly for some time.

It started with his inept performance in attempting to defend the indefensible Angus Taylor. He was the man who if you remember attempted to say he got his information from the city of sydney's annual report off their website. He was trying to be smart and was caught out when it was easily shown this was impossible.Morrison was so unsettled by the he misled parliament quite a few times leading some 'conservative' commentators to say he was bad thinking on his feet.

Then came the bushfires. Leaders usually do well in times of crisis ( Tale the lamentable Daniel Andrews. He was I hate to say it outstanding. Knowing what and not what to say) but not Morrison. He looked way out of his depth.
Then we had sportsrorts.. As we have noted before this did not pass the pub test yet there he was defending the indefensible again.

Then we had his coalition partner engaging in a fight over leadership which has not gone away.

One  swallow  ( or to put it more accurately ) a few swallows do not make a summer but Morrison is not looking good at all and worse It is looking day by day the election gave us the wrong party to govern,
It is bad for Mmorrison as all the authority he got for winning the unwinnable election is going as more people on his side see it as a mere fluke rather than Morrison's strategy or campaigning.

Things may improve however he does not have a lot of talent to work with in the ministry so we shall see.

Whoopsy
I forgot to add he appears to take angry pills when under pressure which only exacerbates things going badly

you will note I have refrained from using any polling. The reason for this no polling organisation has yet to show us they have come up with solutions to overcome the HUGE polling failure from the last election

Electricity again.

I am astounded how some in the government and also the media can say black is white and say it with so much passion.

Yet again we have research from the CSIRO in association with AEMO that shows that renewables added with batteries is lower in cost to old coal fired power stations. It wipes the floor with new coal fired stations.
Yet there was Matt Canavan saying they were dole bludgers only operating when they want to. Does he not know the Telsa battery has saved Melbourne from blackouts which would have been caused by break down in units of coal fired power stations. Where did that power come form. how is SA an energy exporter these days?

Let us examine the problems associated with coal fired power stations.

• They take a long time to build
• No investor wants a part of them
• No financer wants a part of them
• No insurer wants a part of them
• They are unreliable. units break down with regular monotony more so nn very hot days when demand id at its peak
• They emit emissions and pollution

Funny how these problems are either never addressed or ignored.

We do not need any any new coal fired power station. They would add to prices and emissions.

Whoopsy.

I neglected to talk about dispatchable and base load power. They are two different things as has been discussed previously. It takes some time to power ( pun intended) up a base load power station. Dispatchable power can be done in seconds as the Telsa battery has shown time and time again.
It seems after railing against dispatchable power when the NEG was proposed they are now used them inter changeably.
The foolishness of base load power can be seen via a very simple example. Imagine peak demand is 1000 widgets of power.  The power station has 1200 widgets of capacity just in case of the numerous breakdowns.
Midnight comes around and demand slips to 200 widgets BUT supply is still 1200 widgets.

Christians behaving badly

I was looking at the Drum on Friday and Stephen O'Doherty was nonplussed about 'evangelicals' support for Trump.

The Prayer breakfast is a good example of this.
To a christian a payer breakfast is a very solemn occasion.
When you pray you are talking to God. When at a breakfast you are breaking bread with a brother or sister,

At this occasion which as you would expect not to involve politics well Trump did just that.
He did that using profanities, insults and demeaning language to anyone he din't like in politics.

What di the people at the prayer breakfast do you ask. They must have walked out surely. What Trump was doing was sacrilegious if not blasphemy.

No they cheered him just like republican legislators did later in the day.

My memory went to the Jewish leaders in the Temple built by Soloman for God where they worshiped the Sun God.

Around the Traps 7/2/20

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Iain White on housing-crisis-what-crisis-how-politicians-talk-about-housing-and-why-it-matters
• Brendan Coates et al on think-superannuation-comes-from-employers-pockets-it-comes-from-yours
• Frank Bongornio on remembrance-of-rorts-past-why-the-mckenzie-scandal-might-not-count-for-a-hill-of-beans
• Edward Cavanough on australia-decade-burning-environmental-apathy-climate-denial
• Ross Gittins on lack-of-trust-may-have-made-economic-reform-possible , morrisons-dream-climate-fixed-with-no-changes-to-jobs-or-tax
• renew economy on south-australia-to-be-energy-island-for-two-weeks-four-wind-farms-sidelined, aemo-takes-control-of-s-a-big-batteries-to-help-manage-isolated-grid, new-csiro-aemo-study-confirms-wind-solar-and-storage-beat-coal-gas-and-nuclear
• Stephen Kirchner on the-evidence-suggests-reserve-bank-rate-cuts-dont-hurt-confidence
• Anne Twomey on explainer-what-is-the-palace-letters-case-and-what-will-the-high-court-consider
• John Quiggin on the-statistical-significance-of-focus-groups
• Croaking Cassandra on flu-and-coronavirus-thoughts, please-limit-the-number-of-my-competitors
• Yee-Fui Ng on the-sports-rorts-affair-shows-the-need-for-a-proper-federal-icac-with-teeth
• Tim Baxter on scott-morrisons-gas-transition-plan-is-a-dangerous-road-to-nowhere
• Cameron Murray on superannuation-isnt-a-retirement-income-system-we-should-scrap-it
• Moyhu on more-trouble-with-australian-bushfire-statistics
• Daniel Flitton on australia-trouble-top-again
• Adam Morton on hazard-reduction-burning-had-little-to-no-effect-in-slowing-this-summers-bushfires
• Kevin Davis on heres-a-radical-reform-that-could-keep-super-and-pay-every-retiree-the-full-pension
• Anthony Richardson on no-food-no-fuel-no-phones-bushfires-showed-were-only-ever-one-step-from-system-collapse

Northern America

• James Hamilton on steady-growth-continues
• the conversable economist on re-seeding-americas-economic-and-technological-future , how-us-science-and-engineering-depends-on-immigrants , where-us-spending-taxes-deficits-looking-back-50-years, do-americans-think-science-is-moving-too-fast
• Barkley Rosser on will-impeachment-charade-fade-quickly
• Scott Shackleford on us-could-learn-how-to-improve-election-protection-from-other-nations
• Sara Morrison on iowa-caucus-smartphone-app-disaster-explained
• Sam Hendriks on trump-s-state-union
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-the-iowa-caucuses-still-have-a-great-claim-to-retain-first-in-nation-status

Europe

• Timothy Oliver on british-people-now-define-themselves-as-leavers-or-remainers-so-what-happens-after-brexit
• Simon Usherwood on brexit-heres-what-happens-next
• Paul Fritjers on brexit-is-not-tot-ziens-bye-bye
• Mainly Macro on what-causes-concern-about-immigration

Asia

• Yun Jiang and  Adam Ni on why-the-coronavirus-has-become-a-major-test-for-the-leadership-of-xi-jinping-and-the-communist-party
• Ivy Kweek on asean-perceptions-power-and-security
• Rodger Shanahan on middle-east-peace-plan-once-lifetime-deal-not-good-way
• Khang Vu on tokyo-olympics-chance-diplomatic-reset-north-korea
• Sam Roggeveen on us-china-competition-asia-who-risks-wins 

Wonk

• stumbling and mumbling on on-socially-influenced-preferences, in-praise-of-trade-frictions
• Mark Beeson on solastalgia-malady-our-age
• Brad De Long on north-atlantic-political-economy-1870-1914
• Tyler Cowen on coronavirus-would-be-worse-without-the-web
• Eric Lonergan on how-long-is-secular-stability
• Robert B Talisee on civility-in-politics-is-harder-than-you-think
• the grumpy economist on new-paper-fiscal-roots-of-inflation
• Mascromania on kalecki-on-political-aspects-of-full-emplyment

General

• C Raina MacIntyre andAbra Chughtai on coronavirus-how-worried-should-i-be-about-the-shortage-of-face-masks-or-can-i-just-use-a-scarf
• Allen Cheung on how-does-the-wuhan-coronavirus-cause-severe-illness

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on feebacks-runaway-and-tipping-points
• moyhu on ncepncar-reanalysis-down-0035-in-january , january-global-surface-templs-up-0047-from-december
• John Quiggin on the-worst-case-is-happening
• Idiot tracker on climate-change-2020-still-on-glide-path_6
• skeptical science on  earth is heating at a rate equivalent of 5 atomic bombs per second

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• forget-about-multiple-testing-corrections-actually-forget-about-hypothesis-testing-entirely
• the-fallacy-of-the-excluded-rationality
• is-there-any-scientific-evidence-that-humans-dont-like-uncertainty
• fugitive-and-cloistered-virtues
• fugitive-and-cloistered-virtues
• mrp-carmelo-anthony-update-trash-talkings-fine-but-you-gotta-give-details-or-links-or-something
• the-importance-of-measurement-in-psychology
• when-i-was-asked-who-do-you-think-is-most-likely-to-win-the-democratic-nomination-this-is-how-i-responded
• trumps-rising-approval-numbers-resulting-from-differential-nonresponse
• abuse-of-expectation-notation
• advice-for-a-young-economist-at-heart
• misleading-vote-reporting
• statschat on graphs-dont-matter ?
• Kaiser Fung on how-to-outsmart-the-election-pundits, quick-hits-on-data-issues-in-the-democratic-primaries-cancelled-poll-and-cost-of-complexity , a-big-loser-of-the-iowa-debacle-is-data-science

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• freakometircs on combine the modalities of a factor variable, what responsibilities for algorithms
• Marc Bellamare on its written in the stars

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• humans-in-the-machine
• Tim Harford on book-of-the-week-5-you-look-like-a-thing-and-i-love-you

Vox Wonk

• imperial-roots-global-trade
• how-retirement-can-affect-mental-health
• stress-tests-can-limit-international-spillovers-accommodative-monetary-policy
• defining-emerging-market-cities-using-lights-night
• effect-taxes-firm-firm-trade
• digital-money-and-central-bank-digital-currency-executive-summary
• capital-flows-risk-taming-ebbs-and-flows
• regional-redistribution-and-populist-voting
• phillips-curve-euro-area
• inflation-changing-economic-environment
• inadequate-data-protection-threat-economic-and-national-security
• roadmap-digital-led-economic-development
• how-information-and-social-norms-affect-criminal-activities
• how-services-boost-goods-exports
• more-or-less-economic-limits-blockchain

the reason for Trump's rise in approval ratings

Stats Guru  Andrew Gelman gives us Josh Marshall's explanation of the above plus a few comments. Well worth the read.

Quiggin unloads on focus groups

When you get him away from his secular social fascism John Quiggin is usually quite good.
This article on the-statistical-significance-of-focus-groups.

I wish to add a small nit. As Kevin Bonham has said numerous times there was a massive polling failure in the last election.

No polling firm has yet to fess up. Despite this their results on qualitative and quantitative. It is as it never occurred.
Until they do and tell us how they have changed their methods they deserve our distrust.