Around the Traps 24/1/20

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy,

• Paul Read and Richard Dennis on with-costs-approaching-100-billion-the-fires-are-australias-costliest-natural-disaster
• Mark Maund et al on before-we-rush-to-rebuild-after-fires-we-need-to-think-about-where-and-how
• Michelle Ward et al on six-million-hectares-of-threatened-species-habitat-up-in-smoke
• Rod Keenan et al on forest-thinning-is-controversial-but-it-shouldnt-be-ruled-out-for-managing-bushfires
• Maris O'Sullivan on so-the-government-gave-sports-grants-to-marginal-seats-what-happens-now
• Mark the Ballot on /polls-bias-variance-trade-off-and-2019-election
• Ross Gittins on rba-should-stop-pretending-theres-any-useful-it-can-do , climate-change-we-cant-stop-it-by-refusing-to-change
• renew economy on australia-wind-and-solar-investment-plunges-as-coalition-turns-blind-eye-to-transition
• Greg Mullins on i-tried-to-warn-scott-morrison-about-the-bushfire-disaster-adapting-to-climate-change-isnt-enough
• Hilde Tubex on prisoner-numbers-in-australia-have-decreased-but-were-not-really-sure-why-yet
• Stephen Garnett et al on conservation-scientists-are-grieving-after-the-bushfires-but-we-must-not-give-up
• Greg Jericho on a-new-decade-is-likely-to-bring-another-year-of-low-wages-growth, scott-morrisons-stance-on-climate-change-makes-it-harder-for-future-governments-to-undo-his-damage
• croaking cassandra on housing-unaffordability , fines
• Cris Brack on many-of-our-plants-and-animals-have-adapted-to-fires-but-now-the-fires-are-changing
• Danielle Wood et al on new-year-new-strategy-unheralded-change-to-budget-targets-creates-space-for-stimulus
• renew economy on angus-taylors-secret-consultation-on-emissions-cuts-stacked-towards-big-emitters , australia-has-a-credible-path-to-a-low-carbon-grid-why-wont-the-coalition-embrace-it
• Howard Whitton on why-we-need-strong-ethical-standards-for-ministers-and-better-ways-of-enforcing-them
• Michelle Grattan on bridget-mckenzie-has-made-herself-a-sitting-duck

Northern America

• Sean Illing on impeachment-trial-trump-bannon-misinformation
• Menzie Chinn on the-us-china-phase-1-deal-interpeted-break-thing-claim-to-fix-thing-repeat
• Tyler Cowen on the-economic-policy-of-elizabeth-warren
• the conversable economist on academics-and-new-york-times-on-history-of-slavery , americans-dont-see-economy-as-nations-most-important-problem
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-december-existing-home-sales
• Todd Purdum on senate-begins-solemn-absurd-impeachment
• Sussan Glasser on letter-from-trumps-washington/ass-backward-and-so-far-witness-free-trumps-senate-impeachment-trial-begins
• John Cassidy on our-columnists/how-to-debunk-trumps-false-claims-about-the-economy
• Barkley Rosser on i-am-glad-that-large-pro-gun-rights
• Institutional Economics on us-china-trade-deal-is-spin-for-trumps
• German Lopez on virginia-gun-control-laws-mass-shootings
• Barkley Rosser on covering-up-coverup

Europe

• Born Duben on no-end-sight-germany-s-troubles-huawei
• Stephen Kinsella on criticism-and-praise-in-the-run-up-to-the-2020-general-election
• Coppolla comment on the-ni-funds-reserves-dont-pay-down-national-debt
• stumbling and mumbling on a-case-for-nationalizing-pensions , inequality-under-new-labour , the-interest-rate-puzzle
• Mainly Macro on evidence-and-persistence-of-mistaken-ideas

Asia

• Robert E Kelly on another-year-north-korean-stalemate
• Simon Roughneen on real-winners-trade-war-might-be-found-southeast-asia
• Stephen Grenville on reports-china-s-economic-death-are-greatly-exaggerated
• Daniel Hurst on japan-struck-low-climate-ambition
• Lauren Williams on /kurds-are-caught-crossfire-between-us-and-iran
• Prakash Gopal on india-navigating-straits-capability

Wonk

• Carlisle Rchardson on un-paying-dues-and-having-say
• Erin Hurley on democratic-debate-big-distinctions-little-difference
• Tim Harford on salvator-mundi-and-the-limits-of-certainty
• sandwichman on what-is-most-useful-idea-in-economics
• the conversable economist on the-prisoners-dilemma-celebrating-its-70th-anniversary
• Nick Gruen on /the-economic-consequences-of-the-peace
• Stephen Simon on middle-east-trump-blunders-in
• Paul Fritjers on are-drugs-the-achilles-heel-of-stagnant-inequality
• Ian Mackay and Katherine Arden on should-we-be-worried-about-the-new-wuhan-coronavirus
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-climate-linked-financial-crises-loom-but-the-fix-isnt-up-to-central-banks
• Daniel Flitton on learning-extinction
• Tyler Cowen on how-bad-are-smart-phones-for-people-and-kids
• Croaking Cassandra on pandemics-and-the-economy

General

• Deborah Batesman and Kathleen McNamee on how-effective-is-the-pill
• Aaron Cavosie et al  on we-found-the-worlds-oldest-asteroid-strike-in-western-australia-it-might-have-triggered-a-global-thaw

Climate

• David Appell on pct-of-earth-with-warmest-and-coldest , about-temperature-changes-in-ocean , the-testable-falsifiable-science-that-supports-human-causes-of-warming
• hotwhopper on 2019-was-second-hottest-year-on-record-despite-no-El Nino
• Open Mind on 2-of-global-warming-since-1979-due-to-other-things, is-the-apparent-recent-acceleration-in-temperature-significant, ranges-overlap
• Cassandras Legacy on climate-change-concise-assessment-of-what-we-are-risking
• Rabett run on the-2015-2019-global-temp-average
• Will Steffen on scientists-hate-to-say-i-told-you-so-but-australia-you-were-warned
• John Cook on how did climate change get so controversial
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-carbon-prices-not-monetary-policies-are-the-tools-to-fight-climate-change
• renew economy on renewable-hydrogen-costs-could-halve-by-2030-beating-unabated-fossil-fuels

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• some-westlake-quotes
• pocket-kings-by-ted-heller
• top-5-literary-descriptions-of-poker
• correctness
• are-the-tabloids-better-than-we-give-them-credit-for
• the-latest-perry-preschool-analysis-noisy-data-noisy-methods-flexible-summarizing-big-claims
• the-intellectual-explosion-that-didnt-happen
• statschat on on-broadway , gender-pay-gaps
• Kaiser Fung on new-data-on-vaping

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• freakometrics on more on random dollars for everyone
• Menzie Chinn on david-romer-in-praise-of-confidence-intervals

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the grumpy economist on great-society-review
• Paul Ronalds on book-review-can-we-do-good-without-it-really-costing-anything 

vox wonk

• impact-ceos-public-sector
• cronyism-reduces-job-creation-lebanon
• pay-performance-insurance-markets
• refugees-and-foreign-investment
• green-deal-will-not-work-without-refocusing-productivity
• seigniorage-through-periodic-recoinage
• central-bank-independence-low-rates-new-risks
• paradox-stagnant-real-wages-yet-rising-living-standards-uk
• recruiting-practices-elite-universities-case-harvard
• contraceptive-technology-and-decline-marriage
• productivity-heterogeneity-and-variation-organisational-form
• fiscal-multipliers-during-european-sovereign-debt-crisis
• changing-nature-work-us

What do financial planners, mortgage brokers and Trivago have in common?

We learnt yesterday the Federal court ruled against Trivago . They were telling consumers they were getting the lowest cost deals.
In fact they were getting the deals Trivago got the largest commissions on.

Commisions are insidious. Consumers find it hard to find out exactly how much they are. Indeed in a lot of cases consumers think they are getting a service for free.

Financial planners and mortgage brokers gorge themselves on trailing commissions. They are a specialised form of commission. They are even  more insidious. Consumers get hit with a trailing commission each year every year.

Commissions in whatever form are not transparent indeed very opaque.

In both cases the people getting the trailing commissions are paid by the organisation who is selling the product. .Thus we can say both financial planners and mortgage brokers are simply part of the selling process of either investing or getting loans for housing.

They do not increase competition rather the opposite. It is not surprising the Present Liberal National government caved into mortgage brokers. It was the same thing with financial planners.
In neither case do they want to charge fees as then they would have to justify it.

Neither wants to put the consumer first just as Trivago had no intention of doing so.

Iran is a lot more potent than you think

The most important thing that occurred after Trump's act of war on Iran was Iran's response.

If the USA attacked or invaded Iran then we know Iran has the capacity to kill a hellva lot of yanks.

If you have to ensure the sanctions you have imposed against Iran work then you will have a lot of assets and thus people in an areas susceptible to attack by very fast and accurate ballistic missiles.

Iran gave the USA that message. The only problem is does Trump understand that.

Poll Update

With so much happening Kevin Bonham's update got by me somewhat.

Be wary of a poll when polls are not usually done and also of polling forms who won't tell you why they got it so wrong in the last election.

Mark the Ballot explores this yet again as an added bonus

McKenzie must go

The Auditor General released  report into sports grants by the Government just before the last election.
Just before I start here is Maria O'Sullivan on the issue.

It was devastating.

Community groups put a lot of effort to get grants for local sporting infrastructure.
Sports Australia then ranked the all of the proposals from the various sporting groups in order of importance ie merit.

The minister Brigid McKenzie then completely changed all this to putting most of the money into either marginal coalition seats they were protecting or ALP marginal seats they wanted to win.
Merit had NOTHING to do with the grants. This has similarities with Ros Kelly.

After some time she resigned as she should have. It was one of the main reasons Keating as Leader lost a lot of credibility. he was defending the indefeasible all because he did not want to give in to Opposition demands.

It is the same now. McKenzie must go. The longer it takes the more it will impact on Morrison who is already hit with credibility problems . Firstly defending Taylor and then the Bushfires fiasco.

I will finish by saying do not discount the red hot anger at all those community groups that missed out. all that time in writing a submission just for the minister to change things. Every community group now knows if they are not in a marginal seat then what is the point.

update:

I forgot two things

1) Sports Australia should have said to McKenzie NO instead of meekly accepting her 'suggestions'.

2) The is a possible legal problem here.

Around the Traps 17/1/20

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on financial-literacy-how-about-schools-fix-maths-etc-and-governments-free-up-the-housing-market, once-one-of-our-largest-towns , wages-and-the-economy , decomposing-the-nz-economy-and-australias , business-investment-and-snz
• Marc Hudson on watching-our-politicians-fumble-through-the-bushfire-crisis-im-overwhelmed-by-deja-vu
• Nancy Cushing on even-for-an-air-pollution-historian-like-me-these-past-weeks-have-been-a-shock
• Chris Wallace on bushfires-wont-change-climate-policy-overnight-but-morrison-can-shift-the-coalition-without-losing-face
• Mark O'Neill on australia-s-new-strategic-geography
• Rachel Withers on australia-was-warned-climate-change-bushfires
• Moyhu on a-trap-with-bushfire-area-statistics-in-australia
• Open Mind on australia-choose-your-future, australia-rain-seasonal-by-state, australia-choose-your-future
• Menzie Chinn on is-employment-growth-a-lot-lower-than-we-think
• John Quiggin on consumed-by-fire, economic-estimates-dont-account-for-tragic-bushfire-toll
• Kevin Bonham on newspoll-roasts-morrison-2019-polling-year-in-review
• Mike Lee on australias-bushfires-could-drive-more-than-700-animal-species-to-extinction-check-the-numbers-for-yourself
• Joellie Gergis and Geoff Cary on some-say-weve-seen-bushfires-worse-than-this-before-but-theyre-ignoring-a-few-key-facts
• Renew Economy on coal-coal-coal-for-australia-as-bushfires-and-denial-greet-olympic-year, neoen-wants-tesla-big-battery-expansion-to-be-on-line-in-march, victoria-solar-farms-face-tighter-constraints-new-projects-may-be-blocked-from-grid, investors-slam-hard-line-stance-by-rule-maker-that-could-stop-wind-and-solar-projects
• Nicky Isson on taking-action-on-climate-is-hard-here-are-five-questions-to-help-australia-seize-this-moment
• Gabriel De Silva on bushfire-smoke-is-everywhere-in-our-cities-heres-exactly-what-you-are-inhaling
• Umair Irfan on australia-fires-climate-change-weather-extreme-heat-drought-flood
• Greg Jericho on the-bushfires-make-fiscal-stimulus-an-even-more-urgent-task-for-the-morrison-government
• Peter Whiteford on are-most-people-on-the-newstart-unemployment-benefit-for-a-short-or-long-time
• Jane Dixon on take-care-when-examining-the-economic-impact-of-fires-gdp-doesnt-tell-the-full-story
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-the-end-of-the-checkout-signals-a-dire-future-for-those-without-the-right-skills
• Greg Earl on economic-diplomacy-two-big-c-issues

Northern America

• Katelyn Burns on trump-iran-esper-o-brien-four-embassies-why-soleimani-killed
• Erin Hurley on trump-walks-away-clean-soleimani-fallout
• Aaron Rupar on trump-inspector-general-michael-atkinson-tweet
• Calculated Risk on cleveland-fed-key-measures-show-inflation-above-2%
• New Deal Democrat on scenes-from-the-december-jobs-report-leading-jobs-sectors-and-wages, real-wages-declined-slightly-in-q4-2019-nearly-flat-since-last-january
• the conversable economist on who-are-current-main-players-in-federal-funds-market , why-are-men-detaching-from-labor-force , cultivated-ginseng-and-marathon-county-winsconsin
• Dahlia Lithwick on trump-robert-hyde-stalk-ambassador-marie-yovanovitch
• Menzie Chinn on the-deal-much-ado-about-nothing, econofact-what-is-the-toll-of-trade-wars-on-u-s-agriculture
• Andrew Prokop on lev-parnas-maddow-trump-barr
• Fred Kaplan on intelligence-agencies-want-to-get-out-of-their-annual-congressional-briefing-so-they-wont-have-to-contradict-trump
• Tyler Cowen on what-to-make-of-the-new-u-s-china-trade-deal 
• Institutional Economics on judy-sheltons-threat-to-global-free-trade

Europe

• Mainly Macro on monetary-and-fiscal-cooperation-case
• stumbling and mumbling on two-conservatisms
• Graeme Gill on russian-government-resignation-whats-just-happened-and-whats-in-store-for-putin-beyond-2024

Asia

• Aural Braun on flight-ps752-a-deadly-combination-of-irans-recklessness-and-incompetence
• Geoffrey Dell on what-investigators-should-be-looking-for-in-the-iran-plane-crash-an-expert-explainsk
• Erin Cook on jakarta-flooding-and-its-governor-sinking
• Mustaffa Izzudin on india-has-left-rcep-behind-not-its-ambition-southeast-asia
• Nick Aspenwall on taiwan-voters-reject-beijing-not-populism
• Milton Osborne on another-dam-on-the-mekong
• Robin Wright on the-anger-and-anguish-fuelling-irans-protests
• Shirley Ze You on deng-s-pragmatism-china-s-poison-pill
• Jen Kirby on iran-protests-soleimani-trump-jcpoa

Wonk

• Ian Parmeter on iran-and-us-step-back-from-all-out-war-giving-trump-a-win-for-now
• Timothy Graham and Thomas Keller on bushfires-bots-and-arson-claims-australia-flung-in-the-global-disinformation-spotlight
• Tim Harford on how-sesame-street-set-a-gold-standard-for-education
• Barkley Rosser on can-us-assassination-of-qasem-solemaini-be-justified, further-followup-on-soleimani
• the conversable economist on concentration-and-competition-ambiguous-reelationships , the-evolution-of-exchange-rate-markets
• Ben Rich on political-assassinations-were-once-unthinkable-why-the-us-killing-of-soleimani-sets-a-worrying-precedent
• Tyler Cowen on the-best-available-fix-for-real-wage-stagnation
• John Quiggin on blackrock-is-the-canary-in-the-coalmine-its-decision-to-dump-coal-signals-whats-next
• John Daley and Emily Millane on might-the-bushfire-crisis-be-the-turning-point-on-climate-politics-australian-needs
• Kevin Tolhurst on we-have-already-had-countless-bushfire-inquiries-what-good-will-it-do-to-have-another
• Victor Abramowicz on impact-of-accuracy
• FRBSF on anchored expectations and the phillips curve Thanks Brad
• The Grumpy Economist on a-chilly-chilean-lesson

General

• Christine Jenkins on im-struggling-to-breathe-with-all-the-bushfire-smoke-could-i-have-undiagnosed-asthma
• The Angry Staff Officer on warfighter-helms-deep Thanks Brad
• Naman Zhou on before-and-after-images-show-scale-of-bushfire-devastation

Climate

• David Appell on here-we-are-in-non-el-nino-year-and-uah
• AGW Observer on papers-on-indian-ocean-dipole-iod-and-climate-change
• steven-pinker-on-torture
• Damien Carrington on ocean-temperatures-hit-record-high-as-rate-of-heating-accelerates
• Real Climate on one-more-data-point
• Moyhu on giss-december-global-up-by-011-from-november
• Andrew Blakers on how-an-aussie-invention-could-soon-cut-5-of-the-worlds-greenhouse-gas-emissions
• Peter Sinclair on nasa-the-hottest-decade

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• no-i-dont-think-that-this-study-offers-good-evidence-that-installing-air-filters-in-classrooms-has-surprisingly-large-educational-benefits
• linear-or-logistic-regression-with-binary-outcomes
• of-manhattan-projects-and-moonshots
• four-projects-in-the-intellectual-history-of-quantitative-social-science
• how-to-get-out-of-the-credulity-rut-regression-discontinuity-edition-getting-beyond-whack-a-mole
• will-decentralised-collaboration-increase-the-robustness-of-scientific-findings-in-biomedical-research-some-data-and-some-causal-questions
• in-bayesian-inference-do-people-cheat-by-rigging-the-prior
• graphs-of-school-shootings-in-the-u-s
• Michael J Brown on from-election-upsets-to-climate-chaos-rolling-the-dice-helps-us-appreciate-the-odds
• is-it-accurate-to-say-politicians-dont-actually-care-what-voters-want
• statschat on hard-to-treat-people-are-hard-to-treat
• Kaiser Fung on election-polls-politicking

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• Freakometrics on on cochran theorem

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• automation-the-future-of-work-and-giraffes
• Alasdair Nicholson on book-review-where-power-stops
• stumbling and mumbling on great-economics-bad-politics

Vox wonk

• benchmark-interest-rates-when-government-risky
• political-information-age-internet
• effects-exam-scheduling-academic-performance
• lessons-and-policy-implications-policymaking-emu
• network-analysis-economic-history
• origins-microfinance
• informality-and-weak-competition-latin-america
• spillovers-and-optimal-design-macroprudential-measures
• post-crisis-evolution-monetary-policy-frameworks
• new-eu-level-playing-field-instrument
• us-monetary-policy-international-risk-spillovers-and-policy-options
• digital-money-implications-emerging-market-and-developing-economies
• monetary-policy-commodity-booms-and-busts

Tamino on Australia's future, temperatures ,rainfall

Tamino is an absolute gem when it comes to climate change. A stats guru who understands what is happening tp out planer.
Here are three recent articles all about us.

A wonderful read.

• trend-australia-trend-summer-trend-temperature-trend
• australia-choose-your-future
• australia-rain-seasonal-by-state