Driving Miss Daisy

I had to drive My mother back to Port Macquarie yesterday in the blinding rain.
I ( and my son) merely drove at 90 kilometres an hour because of the conditions.

Two things stood out.

We saw at least four bad accidents on dual carriage way. Very strange except most of the drivers drove as if it were NOT raining.

The economy our car did ( Hyundai I30) was about 4.2-4.4 as opposed to around 5.5 when driving at 110 kilometres an hour we usually do.

It is a bloody long drive though.

Budgetary Blues

When the Coalition won office they claimed they had inherited a deficit and debt disaster. The Deficit was according to PEFO 1.9% of GDP.
Through some decision they managed to increase this to 2.1% of GDP. We found out in MYEFO the deficit marginally has increased to 2.3% of GDP.
so in office they have managed to allow the deficit to get worse.

Amazing what occurs when the Terms of trade go the wrong way!

No sign of the Liberals wanting to match Wayne Swan and take 0.7 percentage points off GDP with the most austere budget on record, Thank the Lord for that.

Classical economics was always a complete crock

Around the Traps 18/12/15

It is time for Around the Traps again

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Stephen Grenville on How-Australia-can-use-economic-dipolmacy-to-get-closer-to-Asia
• The Kouk on what-a-turn-up-for-the-books-a-big-spending-big-taxing-liberal-party
• The Conversation on myefo-2015-government-adopts-more-realistic-economic-outlook-experts-react
• Mark the Ballot on aggregation-update-55-to-45
• Greg Jericho on its-the-revenue-stupid-with-no-apologies-to-scott-morrison
• Andrew Elder on between-two-stools
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-2015-year-in-review
• Ian McAuley on australian-government-revenue-slides-but-our-spending-rages-on
• Tony Wood on no-climate-policy-is-perfect-heres-how-to-choose-the-best-one
• Gabrielle Appleby on releasing-governments-advice-would-help-parliament-better-scrutinise-laws
• John Quiggin on a-quiet-word
• Allen Behm on Bull-red-or-otherwise-What-Greg-Sheridan-gets-wrong-about-religion-war-and-Duncan-Lewis
• Jeff Borland on lets-allow-parallel-book-imports-and-subsidise-australian-publishing
• Dereck Arnold on we-need-to-ditch-the-pink-ball-in-day-night-test-cricket
• Croaking Cassandra on why-new-zealand-languishes-2, immigration-convergence-and-history
• Ross Gittins on the-economys-doing-lot-better-than-the-budget
• John Daly sort of  on -australia-big-small-government Thanks Steve from Brisbane
• Tomas Fitzgerald on australias-plain-packaging-win-over-philip-morris-should-take-the-heat-off-isds

Northern America

• Croaking Cassandra on is-the-fed-risking-a-policy-reversal
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-makes-you-wonder-what-the-fed-is-thinking , fomc-preview-watch-the-dollar-and-oil, fed-watch-as-expected
• Cechetti and Schoenholtz on the-fed-from-forward-guidance-to-data-dependence Thanks Mark
• Calculated Risk on key-measures-show-inflation-close-to-2%-in-december, comments-on-november-housing-starts
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-u-s-monetary-expectations-and-emerging-market-debt-flows
• David Beckworth on the-fed-gets-what-it-wants
• run75441 0n african-americans-in-prison-and-sentencing-reform
• Larry Summers on what-should-the-fed-do-and-have-done Thanks Mark
• Edward Lambert on ncobras-unemp-slithers
• Timothy Taylor on saving-social-security-policy-menu
• Noah Smith on killing-entitlements-would-make-inequality-worse
• Carola Binder on rewriting-rules-federal-reserve-broad-stable-growth Thanks Brad

Europe

• Kruggers on adjustment-in-the-euro-area
• Simon Wren-Lewis on a-crisis-made-in-germany, read Tony then is-omt-bluff
• Tony Yates on the-eurozone-crisis-was-it-all-bad-german-economics

Asia

• David Beckworth on upgrading-to-abenomics-2.0
• Meriden Varrall on How-Chinas-world-view-is-manifested-in-South-China-Sea

Wonk

• Nick Rowe on switzerland-as-a-closed-end-mutual-fund-with-a-country-attached , money-demand-and-supply-in-a-redgreen-world, monetary-business-cycles-and-counter-cyclical-human-capital-investment
• Stephen Kinsella on redistribution-in-the-age-of-austerity
• Timothy Taylor on world-gdp-is-falling-if-measured-at-market-exchange-rates
• Chris Dillow on costs-of-under-confidence , intelligence-violence , marxs-theory-of-the-state-a-test
• John Quiggin on climate-change-and-the-culture-wars
• Lars P Syll on is-macroeconomics-for-real Thanks Brad
• Brad De Long on what-is-the-eccles-building-thinking-today-iii-the-mysterious-absence-of-paul-krugman-thought
• David Andolfatto on the-neo-fisherian-proposition
• Lukasz Rachel and Thomas D Smith on secular drivers of the global real interest rate 
• Kevin O'Rourke on critical-quarterly-columns
• David Glasner on keynes-on-the-theory-of-the-rate-of-interest

General

• Tim Harford on economics-still-a-job-for-the-boys
• Scepticlawyer on moral-sensibility-and-modernity

Climate

• Brad Plumer on paris-climate-deal-history Thanks Brad
• Robert Stavins on paris-agreement-a-good-foundation-for-meaningful-progress Thanks Mark
• Steffen Bohm on how-emissions-trading-at-paris-climate-talks-has-set-us-up-for-failure
• Katherine Lake onhow-will-carbon-markets-help-the-paris-climate-agreement
• Pep Canadell and Rob Jackson on the-paris-climate-agreement-the-real-work-starts-now
• John Connor on The-Paris-agreement-a-global-turning-point-requires-domestic-realignment
• David Appell on el-nino-seems-to-have-peaked, why-claim-of-no-warming-in-18-years-is-a-blatant-cherrypick
• and Then Theres Physics on consilience-of-the-evidence, pragmatism , forcing-efficacy, rcps-as-scenarios
• Moyhu on november-giss-down-by-only-001-on-October
• Critical Angle on nasa-november-temperature-update-the-heat-is-still-on
• IdiotTracker on gistemp-november-105c
• Mark Thoma on the-economic-hurdles-for-beating-global-warming
• Greg Laden on antarctic-ice-melting-tamsin-edwards-responds-to-richard-alley
• Tamino on november-temperature
• Myles Allen on can-we-hold-gw-to-1_5C
• Barkely Rosser on central-points-on-tax-versus-cap-and-trade 

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)

• jokull-snaebjarnarson-writes
• bayesian-decision-analysis-for-the-drug-approval-process
• mars-1-this-american-life-0
• gathering-of-philosophers-and-physicists-unaware-of-modern-reconciliation-of-bayes-and-popper
• tug of war
• Kaiser Fung on its-difficult-for-journalists-to-get-statistics-right-the-real-estate-edition

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• nutting as yet.

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + Book Reviews)

• bringing-ideas-to-the-world , holiday-reading , measuring-and-markets, cotton-empire-and-mill-workers
• Lowy-Institutes-books-of-the-year-2015-part-2, Lowy-Institutes-books-of-the-year-2015-part-31
• No Hesitations on superforecasting
• Annamarie Jagose on some-notes-on-the-female-orgasm-in-2015
• Natalie Mast on book-review-keating-by-kerry-obrien

Vox Wonk

• future-manufacturing-lies-services
• offshoring-and-unskilled-labour-demand-new-evidence
• measuring-success-economics
• immigration-fears-and-policy-uncertainty
• size-single-resolution-fund
• islamic-terrorism-and-assimilation-muslims
• basel-regulation-and-small-business-lending
• improving-cross-border-mobility-evidence-accountancy
• road-cop21
• economic-consequences-accused-politicians-india
• selective-immigration-policies-and-migrant-quality
• productivity-trends-asia-after-global-crisis

Islamic Terrorism and assimilation

There is a wonderful article at Vox wonk as I call it on the above topic.

It is well worth reading.

One of the findings is that terror attacks may well be calculated to reduce assimilation of muslins into Western society.

Food for thought.

MYEFO

well MYEFO was released yesterday.
There are opinions on it
Here,
Here,
Here
Whoopsy HERE
Good  grief I forgot THE KOUK

I can't help thinking Wayne Swan is laughing in the background as the Liberals have been singing from his hymnal ever since they have been in Government.

In essence there has been no change in the deficit as a % of GDP since a change of government. Wow way to go given the deficit 'disaster' they inherited.

This all started when  income tax were given with the deletion of the petrol excise . see HERE.

Trump , Will the primaries change things

Up to this stage Trump popularity with Republican voters has stood still no matter how many stupid statements he makes.
He is clearly the non-politician they like.

However once the primary season comes before us they then have to vote for a Republican candidate whom they hope can beat Hillary Clinton.

Once this dose of realism hits the voters will they change and then vote for an electable candidate?

I had thought that as candidates drop out their 'votes' would go to other candidates and Trump's would stay still.

This has not occurred.

Indeed at this stage many ore now writing of a Republican convention where no candidate has enough votes to become the Presidential candidate.

Who knows but I have a sneaking suspicion when republican voters cast their votes in the primaries Trump will get less votes than anticipated and he will at some stage drop out.

Around the Traps 11/12/15

It is time for Around the Traps again

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Quiggin on increasing-gst-not-worth-the-effort
• Paul Fritjers on how-bad-were-the-good-old-days-of-hawkekeating
• Ross Gittins on broken-public-service-leads-to-broken-governance
• Greg Jericho on we-can-raise-the-gst-and-keep-the-tax-system-progressive-but-its-a-tricky-sell
• Stephen Grenville on Australia-and-the-US-good-friends-can-sometimes-differ-in-global-economic-diplomacy
• The Kouk on digital-disruption-is-slowing-growth-but-it-will-make-for-better-economies , as-turnbull-s-gloss-fades-are-labor-the-better-bet , doubt-the-jobs-data-at-your-peril-again
• Croaking Cassandra on what-should-the-governor-do, a-central-bank-adrift, why-isnt-the-high-unemployment-rate-bothering-more-people , a-hawkish-easing-and-a-dovish-tightening
• Mark the Ballot on aggregated-polling-chart-bonaza
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-turnbull-bounce-finally-peaks
• Jennifer Menzies on turnbull-faces-his-most-taxing-test-yet-wooing-the-states-to-overhaul-the-gst
• Allen Behm on A-larger-Australia-Situation-size-and-strategy
• Chris Aulich on yes-minister-how-political-appointments-tip-the-scales-of-fearless-advice
• Richard Holden on why-it-is-time-for-a-no-bs-pledge-when-it-comes-to-myefo-forecasts
• Stephen King on confusion-reigns-in-options-for-australias-misuse-of-market-power-laws

Northern America

• Calculated Risk on the-endless-parade-of-recession-calls , the-futures-so-bright
• the bonddad blog on the-future-is-bright-or-perhaps-not Thanks Mark
• Timothy Taylor on fed-interest-rate-increases-not-when , new-rules-for-workers-in-gig-economy , homelessness-in-america-slow-decline
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-and-thats-a-wrap
• David Beckworth on yes-fed-passively-tightened-in-fall-of-2008 , time-traveling-with-fed
• James Hamilton on factors-in-long-term-unemployment
• Kevin Drum on  no-obamacare-isnt-forcing-people-work-less Thanks Mark
• Dean Baker on it-doesn-t-seem-hard-to-get-good-help-the-jolts-data Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-does-legislating-a-rule-for-the-federal-reserve-make-sense

Europe

• Peter Dorman on somethings-rotten-in-state-of-reporting of Denmark
• Simon Wren-Lewis on uk-flooding-austerity-and-media , we-now-know-that-at-least-one-of-flood
• Kevin O'Rourke on slow-train-wreck
• Lord Keynes on wage-stickiness-in-1890s-germany
• Tony Yates on how-the-boe-makes-the-office-for-budget-responsibilitys-job-harder, data-nirvana-a-thought-following-the-bean-review-of-uk-statistics

Asia

• Roger Shanahan on The-media-battle-for-Syria-heats-up-as-government-counterattacks

Wonk

• Robert Waldmann on is-okuns-law-ok , phillips-curve-philippic-i Thanks Mark
• Mathew Rognlie on what lower bound Thanks Brad
• Simon Wren-Lewis on defining-austerity , competitiveness-some-basic-macroeconomics-of-monetary-unions
• Nick Rowe on just-a-little-bit-of-macro-first , ppfs-and-supply-curves , what-is-a-cashless-economy-anyway , switzerland-as-a-closed-end-mutual-fund-with-a-country-attached
• Stephen Kinsella on thoughts-on-flat-taxes
• Elizabeth Anderson on the-politics-behind-piketty
• Mark Humpries on the West is not like ancient rome Thanks Brad
• Cechetti and Schoenholtz on unconventional-monetary-policy-through-the-feds-rear-view-mirror  Thanks Mark
• Tim Harford on the-window-tax-an-open-and-shut-case
• Timothy Taylor on globalization-pauses-will-it-resume
• Chris Dillow on using-models , ideologue-moi, the-utopia-paradox, workplace-coercion
• Noah Smith on efficiency-in-growths-clothing-reply-to-john-cochrane , academic-bs-as-artificial-barriers-to-entry
• Menzie Chinn on estimating-shock-dependent-exchange-rate-pass-through

General

• Patryk Szewyck  and Nikolai Hampton on your-broadband-router-is-not-as-secure-as-you-think-it-is

Climate

• Barkely Rosser on why-is-pigou-club-so-out-of-synch-with-Paris-climate-negotiators 
• Petre Smith and Pep Canadell on removing-co2-from-the-atmosphere-wont-save-us-we-have-to-cut-emissions-now
• Moyhu on templs-november-down-04-from-october-but -still-hot, differential-equations-gone-wrong
• Tamino on asses-bray, ted-cruz-just-plain-wrong
• Variable Variability on judith-curry-uncertainty-monster-high-risk
• Artic sea ice blog on piomas-december-2015, northern-sea-route-operational-all-year-round
• Bronwyn Lo on Wanted-An-authoritative-and-encompassing-information-source-on-climate-change
• and Then Theres Physics on dogma
• Greg Laden on attacking-climate-science-and-scientists
• Peter Burdon on why-is-the-business-world-suddenly-clamouring-for-a-global-carbon-tax
• Steve from Brisbane on satellites-vs-thermometers

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)

• cannabis/IQ 
• use-of-jeffreys-prior-in-estimating-climate-sensitivity
• Probabilistic integration
• hierarchical-modeling-when-you-have-only-2-groups-i-still-think-its-a-good-idea-you-just-need-an-informative-prior-on-the-group-level-variation
• why-i-decided-not-to-enter-the-100000-global-warming-time-series-challenge
• more on prior distributions for climate sensitivity
• defining-conditional-probability
• kids prefer cheese on isomorphic-mimicry-run-amok-john Thanks Mark
• Daniel Little on john-von-neumann-and-stochastic-simulations Thanks Mark

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• seasonal-unit-root-testing-in-eviews
• No Hesitations on long-memory-stochastic-volatility Thanks Mark

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• the-stuff-beneath-the-cloud , thinking-about-welfare-economics-or-not, debt-debt-debt-debt
• Liveo De Matteo on the-great-moderation-international-trends-in-alcohol-consumption
• John Quiggin on the-economist-as-grinch
• Ross Gittins on the-best-economists-know-market-is-flawed
• David Beckworth on book-for-holidays
• Alexander Hunter on explainer-the-history-of-jazz
• Lowy-Institutes-books-of-the-year-2015-part-1
• Harry Clarke on foolishness-by-phools-its-exploitation-by-phishers

Vox Wonk

• sub-saharan-africa-s-low-adoption-high-tech-farm-inputs
• labour-supply-effects-winning-lottery
• global-crisis-beyond-bank-balance-sheets
• micro-uncertainty-and-macro-slowdowns
• migrant-inventors-america-evidence-spillovers
• shrinking-planetary-gdp
• missing-transfers-new-evidence-dyadic-data
• measuring-concentration-wealth
• china-and-global-value-chain-new-evidence
• stability-bonds-for-the-eurozone
• international-macroeconomic-policy-coordination
• peer-effects-and-contagious-productivity
• commuting-and-local-jobs
• fiscal-policy-enduring-growth
• highly-educated-women-no-longer-have-fewer-kids
• some-unpleasant-brexit-econometrics
• choice-numeraire-matters-when-calculating-world-gdp-growth
• history-and-destination-emerging-market-capital-outflows
• global-teams-inventive-work
• when-refugees-become-returnees-new-evidence