Around the Traps 28/5/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Patrick Commins on hysterical-criticism-of-labors-super-tax-plan-could-thwart-needed-reform-experts-say , labor-super-plan-leading-tax-expert-calls-out-confected-outrage-of-wealthy-australians , working-from-home-not-to-blame-for-dip-in-productivity-australian-report-says
• Milad Haghani on drivers-of-suvs-and-pick-ups-should-pay-more-to-be-on-our-roads-heres-how-to-make-the-system-fairer
• Ross Gittins on why-we-need-our-economists-to-try-lot-harder , dont-let-rich-old-men-tell-you-the-planned-new-super-tax-is-terribly-bad
• Jim Green on nuclear-power-may-have-cost-the-coalition-11-seats-in-the-federal-election
• croaking cassandra on some-more-post-budget-thoughts , one-last-post-on-investment-boost , may-monetary-policy-statement
• Brendan Coates and Joey Moloney on actually-gen-z-stand-to-be-the-biggest-winners-from-the-new-3-million-super-tax
• Greg Jericho on superannuation-super-debate-australia-tax-system-built-for-the-rich
• Kate Lyons on uninsurable-pockets-of-australia-pose-existential-questions-that-may-require-radical-answers

OZ climate

• nsw-pitches-first-urban-renewable-zone-based-around-rooftop-pv-batteries-and-evs
  
• australia-is-about-to-see-a-step-change-in-its-renewable-transition-strategy
  
• watershed-moment-transmission-re-think-our-best-chance-to-get-renewable-grid-right
  
• industry-slams-axing-of-1-billion-wind-farm-as-highly-political-as-doubts-raised-over-objections
  
• big-battery-splurge-sets-cracking-pace-for-2025-as-wind-and-solar-investment-has-best-year-since-2018
  
• wholesale-gas-prices-have-risen-far-more-than-electricity-it-needs-a-substitute
  
• marinus-link-is-an-expensive-risk-for-tasmanians-and-it-needs-better-scrutiny
• like-dropping-gravel-into-the-trailer-top-end-solar-farms-finally-allowed-to-send-power-to-the-grid
  
• why-shape-and-value-are-the-key-buzzwords-for-australias-aspiring-offshore-wind-industry
  
• Michelle Ward and James Watson on half-the-remaining-habitat-of-australias-most-at-risk-species-is-outside-protected-areas
• Adam Morton on approval-of-woodside-lng-project-gambles-with-ancient-heritage-for-short-term-gain

Northern America

• institutional economics on moody-blues
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-foreign-aid-looks-good-now-that-its-gone
• Bryan Walsh on violent-crime-rate-homicide-police-baltimore-pandemic-covid
• Tyler Cowen on the-3-5-percent-remittance-tax
• Alex Tabarrok on you-can-see-the-end-of-the-great-stagnation-everywhere-but-in-the-productivity-statistics
• Brad De Long on think-of-it-as-generating-our-investment-surplus-not-as-our-trade-deficit , does-the-federal-reserve-deserve-deference
• Kruggers on the-economic-consequences-of-destroying-Harvard , america-turns-its-back-on-the-world , the-trade-emperor-has-always-been-stark-naked , digital-corruption-takes-over-dc
• Mark Stern on donald-trump-illegal-supreme-court-john-roberts-rule-law
• Dahlia Lithwick on trump-america-1930s-germany-dual-state
• Cameron Peters on donald-trump-pardons-white-collar-fraud-corruption
• David Frum on trump-golden-age-corruption
• David Graham on the-presidents-pattern-of-impatience
• Jeet Heer on protect-judges-trump-incitement
• Marc Carnellas on trump-favorite-law-lamonica-mciver-ice-arrest
• Alex Tabarrok on how-america-built-the-worlds-most-successful-market-for-generic-drugs

Europe

• John Neale on the-forgotten-post-war-decree-that-deliberately-strangled-birmingham Thanks Nick
• Kruggers on a-letter-to-europe
• renew economy on norway-project-to-trial-flat-pack-floating-offshore-wind-turbines
• Mark Edele on vladimir-putins-bombing-of-ukrainian-civilians-wont-end-the-war-any-faster-so-why-is-he-doing-it
• Catherine Wilson on how-romania-defied-putin-s-interference-choose-democracy-over-division
• Joshua Keating on ukraine-hasnt-won-over-trump-but-it-might-not-need-to

Asia

• Yvonne Tan on tackling-forced-labour-malaysia-begins-re-examining-its-migration-model
• Vincent So on taiwan-prepared-fight-itself
• Amra Lee on israels-new-aid-delivery-system-for-gaza-is-sparking-outrage-why-is-it-so-problematic
• Walter Colnaghi on china-s-rare-earth-advantage-isn-t-just-about-control
• Peter Varghese on cptpp-dilemma-economic-merit-versus-geopolitical-calculation
• renew economy on china-switches-on-first-large-scale-lithium-sodium-hybrid-storage-project
• Yusaku Yoshikawa on rice-prices-soar-japan-rethinks-food-security
• Bec Strating on wrong-time-collective-defence-pact-asia
• Abhinandan Kumar on why-jaishankar-may-be-india-s-most-nehruvian-diplomat-nehru-himself
• Aymann Ismail on israel-gaza-war-news-palestine-pallywood

Wonk

• Michael Inzlicht on the-self-control-industrial-complex Thanks Nick
• global inequality on the-problems-of-authenticity-under-capitalism Thanks Nick
• Nina Khaze on israeli-embassy-staff-killings-expose-limits-diplomatic-protection
• Tim Harford on seven-truths-about-trade
• noahopinion on shops-make-a-city-great
• Kruggers on what-deindustrialization-can-teach-us-about-the-effects-of-AI-on-unemployment
• Noah Smith and Chris Best on the-age-of-twitter-is-finally-ending Thanks Brad
• Milad Haghani and Hossein Parineh on most-car-ramming-incidents-arent-terrorism-but-theyre-becoming-more-common-and-crowds-need-better-protection
• stumbling and mumbling on systems-not-individuals

General

• Steve McFarlane on the-tga-has-approved-donanemab-for-alzheimers-disease-how-does-this-drug-work-and-who-will-be-able-to-access-it
• Chris Hall on daylight-can-boost-the-immune-systems-ability-to-fight-infections-new-study

Climate

• Ellie Ong et al on antarctica-has-its-own-shield-against-warm-water-but-this-could-now-be-under-threat
• Sven Teske on earth-is-heading-for-2-7-c-warming-this-century-we-may-avoid-the-worst-climate-scenarios-but-the-outlook-is-still-dire
• open mind on how-fast-is-the-world-warming
• Damien Carrington on almost-40-of-worlds-glaciers-already-doomed-due-to-climate-crisis-study
• Daniel Carrasco and Jonathon Tonkin on earths-seasonal-rhythms-are-changing-putting-species-and-ecosystems-at-risk
• ocean acidification on effects-of-acidification-and-habitat-loss-on-coastal-nitrogen-cycling-dynamics
• skeptical science on new-research

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• xkcd-on-radon
  
• capitalism-as-the-antimarket
  
• ecologists-endless-quest-for-automatic-inference
  
• russian-roulette-an-example-in-which-you-can-have-a-deterministic-potential-outcome-framework-or-an-asymmetric-utility-function-but-not-both
  
• llms-as-behavioral-study-participants
  
• statistical-graphics-when-does-it-make-sense-to-introduce-deliberate-distortion-to-counteract-an-expected-perceptual-illusion
  
• statschat on redrawing-a-graph , typical-wedding
• Kaiser Fung on causal-skimming

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• slime mould time mould on the-mind-in-the-wheel-prologue-everybody-wants-a-rock Thanks Nick
• Andrew Gelman on perplexing-plots
• angry bear on book-review-the-end-of-the-world-is-just-the-beginning

Vox Wonk

• rising-cost-motherhood-germany
  
• when-lights-go-out-power-trust-and-future-europes-energy-transition
  
• navigating-sudden-stops-how-credit-support-policies-can-replace-shrinking-capital
  
• assessment-performance-inflation-targeting
  
• tariffs-and-retaliation-macroeconomic-analysis
  
• when-upskilling-good-not-enough-understanding-labour-shortages-through-job-quality
  
• fed-communication-all-understood-few
  
• geopolitical-risks-and-effectiveness-eu-cohesion-policy
  
• risks-and-benefits-high-speed-internet-socioemotional-wellbeing-adolescence-and-youth
  
• migration-and-regime-change-outflows-follow-democratic-decline-inflows-fuel-illiberal
  

the world is warming fast.

Tamino has a great article on how fast the world is warming

Ukraine

 Sorry but I am going to repat a lot of things i have previously said on the war in Ukraine.

First of all russia is responsible for this war. They INVADED Ukraine. No-one forced them to! The enlargement of NATO is a furphy. NATO like most military treaties is a defensive one. It can ONLY be invoked if a country is attacked. It CANNOT be invoked if a NATO country attacks another country.

Russia could only fear an enlargement of NATO because it would limit the number of countries it could attack.

The next thing is the Western world has to provide Ukraine with all the resources it needs to DEFEAT Ukraine. All the happened previously was to ensure Ukraine was not defeated. Biden here was at fault. He was far too timid and was worried about Putin 'raising the temperature'. The fact is he never has despite his warnings.

Allow Ukraine to bomb the airfields where the drones are coming from for example. Maybe bomb a few electricity stations in their winter. Just ensure they do not target civilians like Russia is.

The russian economy is looking quite bad so increase the costs to Putin of continuing the war.

We need to get tougher on Israel

 Israel had the world's sympathy when Hamas militants murdered over 1000 Israelis.

However their response has shown they can match Hamas for being evil.

They have at no stage attempted to separate civilians and armed militants at all. Over 50k palestinians have been killed and most of them have been women and children. It is absurd to call them Hamas militants. Israel has deliberately withheld aid from Gaza. This not only includes food and water but medical supplies. They have destroyed most hospitals in Gaza because it was occupied by Hamas but provided NO evidence. They have stopped surgeons from going into Gaza.

The result of all of this. Hamas now has the same number of people as members as it had at the start of the 'war'. That's right people have joined Hamas because of the Israeli tactics. brilliant.

We now have some Israelis behaving very badly as well.

It is very hard to get peace when so many on both sides hate each other with some intensity.  Sanctions on 

Israel is a first step in this direction

The Nationals are still mad

 I don't know what else to say about the National's madness. They wanted a divorce and then they did not?

I can't help but think Littleproud got rattled by the leadership vote the Nationals always have after an election. Perhaps he thought some of this madness might appeal to those who voted for Canavan. We never get to know the votes but I think we can assume it was a lot closer than most thought.

This is alarming. Canavan as leader would make the coalition unelectable. Only the base of the Nationals (and Liberals) do not believe in climate change. The Liberals cannot win suburban seats without respecting climate change and adopting policies to counter it. Just remember the teals won very safe Liberal seats primarily but not only on combatting climate change.

Until the Nationals realise this the coalition will not win an election and this is very bad for Australian democracy!

Around the Traps 21/5/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Kevin Bonham on attacks-on-australias-preferential-voting-system-are-ludicrous-we-can-be-proud-of-it
• Rick Sarre and Ben Livings on ben-roberts-smith-has-lost-an-appeal-in-his-long-running-defamation-case-heres-why
• Hugh Piper on why-nrl-s-numbers-don-t-add
• Ross Gittins on the-rba-is-spooked-by-pay-rises-it-should-relax , want-greater-productivity-set-wages-to-increase-by-3.5%-each-year , after-50-years-were-back-to-glory-days-of-full-employment , working-less-could-be-answer-to-one-of-our-biggest-problems
• Chiara Holgate and Allie Gallant on why-is-southern-australia-in-drought-and-when-will-it-end
• Paul Chad on wine-is-still-australias-most-popular-alcoholic-drink-but-many-producers-face-an-uncertain-future
• Shannon Bosch on russia-is-labelling-oscar-jenkins-a-mercenary-not-a-prisoner-of-war-whats-the-difference-and-why-does-this-matter , why-oscar-jenkins-trial-luhansk-people-s-republic-sham
• croaking cassandra on fiscal-starting-points , hard-to-believe-really , the-deeply-underwhelming-budget
• Nicki Hutley on the-rba-has-just-cut-its-cash-rate-but-the-question-already-on-borrowers-lips-is-when-can-we-expect-another-one
• Michelle Grattan on nationals-break-the-coalition-in-a-major-blow-to-sussan-ley
• Linda Botterill on the-coalition-is-on-a-break-but-the-nationals-risk-finding-their-former-partner-doesnt-want-them-back
• John Quiggin on david-littleproud-cites-nuclear-energy-disagreement-as-major-factor-in-coalition-split
• Joshua Black on the-band-is-breaking-up-has-the-coalition-stopped-making-sense
• John Hawkins on rba-cuts-interest-rates-ready-to-respond-again-if-the-economy-weakens-further
• Mick Ryan on ukraine-australia-contrast-military-learning
• Greg Jericho on rba-inflation-interest-rates-cut-full-employment
• Milad Haghani on drivers-of-suvs-and-pick-ups-should-pay-more-to-be-on-our-roads-heres-how-to-make-the-system-fairer
• Abdullah Ali on why-australia-should-pay-attention-sudan-s-deepening-crisis

OZ Climate

• why-the-future-of-clean-energy-depends-on-upholding-energy-as-a-civil-right
  
• home-battery-uptake-hits-record-high-in-market-primed-for-rebate-gold-rush
  
• australias-most-powerful-battery-to-be-fully-operational-by-end-of-year-after-commissioning-slows
  
• how-electricity-meters-distort-the-role-of-rooftop-solar-generation
  
• major-reforms-ease-grid-access-for-big-wind-solar-and-batteries
• is-there-a-better-way-to-serve-retail-customers-how-about-a-smaller-and-cheaper-grid-connection
  
• robots-and-ai-are-helping-australia-achieve-its-ambition-of-game-changing-ultra-low-cost-solar
  
• aemo-flags-rethink-of-transmission-plan-as-costs-soar-and-social-licence-bites
  
• big-batteries-flex-their-muscles-hit-new-records-in-evening-peaks-in-australia-and-california
  
• Ali Abbas et al on waste-to-energy-in-australia-how-it-works-where-new-incinerators-could-go-and-how-they-stack-up
• Kristy Graham on maximising-australia-s-green-growth

Northern America

• institutional economics on peak-tariffs-trump-puts-and-bond-vigilantism
• Kruggers on tariffs-now-what , deindustrialization-causes-and-consequences , attack-of-the-sadistic-zombies , how-trump-will-make-the-tariff-shock-worse , a-liz-truss-moment-for-america , gaming-out-a-sudden-stop , what-a-decent-budget-would-look-like
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-police-shooting-barnes-felix , supreme-court-libby-fecteau-maine-transgender-house , supreme-court-federal-reserve-trump-wilcox
• noahopinion on so-why-did-us-wages-stagnate-for-20-years , is-the-us-in-a-high-level-equilibrium-trap , white-americans-as-a-normal-minority
• Andrew Prokop on trump-house-big-beautiful-bill-megabill-explained
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-policy-rule-evaluation-for-the-feds-strategy-review
• Dylan Mathews on trump-republican-reconciliation-bill-normal-tax-cuts
• Dahlia Lithwick on trump-term-2-american-empathy-emotionally-draining
• Michael Scherer and Ashley Parker on elon-musk-doge-opponents-dc
• David Frum on trumps-national-security-disaster
• the conversable economist on update-on-the-military-base-realignment-and-closure-process , us-state-level-abortion-regulations-causes-and-effects
• Mary Zeigler on georgia-republicans-adriana-smith-forced-ventilation
• Jeet Heer on trump-golden-age-palestine-genocide , biden-original-sin-democratic-party
• Roger Southall on trumps-afrikaners-are-south-african-opportunists-not-refugees-whats-behind-the-us-move
• Dylan Scott on big-beautiful-bill-congress-trump-medicaid-cuts
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-john-roberts-amy-coney-barrett-charter-case
• Adam Serwer on birthright-citizenship-trump-supreme-court
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-trump-humphreys-executor

Europe

• Nicholas Grossman on ukraine-russia-peace-talks-are-farce
• Natassha Lindstaedt on putin-is-testing-how-far-he-can-push-trump-by-not-turning-up-for-istanbul-talks
• Stefan Wolff and Tetyana Malyarenko on territorial-concessions-will-be-central-to-any-ukraine-peace-deal-and-to-russias-long-term-plan
• Tyler Cowen on trade-sentences-to-ponder
• Michael Bossack on what-make-restart-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-negotiations

Asia

• John Aziz on the-settlers-an-incomplete-portrayal Thanks Nick
• Mereille Rebeiz on disarming-hezbollah-is-key-to-lebanons-recovery-but-the-task-is-complicated-by-regional-shifts-ceasefire-violations
• Vaughn Cruikshank and Brendan Hyndman on ferocity-fitness-and-fast-bowling-how-virat-kohli-revolutionised-indian-cricket
• Michael Clarke on xi-s-history-lesson-amid-putin-s-party
• Donald Rothwell on 1-in-5-gazans-face-starvation-can-the-law-force-israel-to-act , uk-spoken-out-human-catastrophe-gaza-australia
• renew economy on china-smashes-rooftop-solar-installation-record-as-overall-emissions-fall-for-first-time
• Sari Bashi on gaza-starvation-and-exile
• Alice Kaplan on zionism-without-zion-melting-point-rachel-cockerell
• Isaac Chotiner on what-israeli-officials-are-privately-saying-about-starvation-in-gaza

Wonk

• Rob Henderson on older generations continue to surrender moral authority to the most naive narcissistic impulsive dishonest age group Thanks Nick
• numb at the lodge on douglas-murray-gruesome-toady thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on the-value-of-institutional-memory
• the conversable economist on the-import-so-that-they-can-export-firms
• Niusha Shafiabady and Andrew O'Neil on america-first-ethics-second-implications-trump-s-ai-executive-order
• Lisa Herzog on have-people-really-had-enough-of-experts
• Menzie Chinn on chinn-ito-financial-openness-index-updated-to-2022
• Tyler Cowen on claude-4-i-attempt-a-first-prompt-and-receive-this-answer

General

• Evan Deturk on an-80000-year-history-of-the-tomato Thanks Nick
• Byrd Pinkerton on krafla-magma-testbed-iceland-volcanology-research
• Barbara Catinella et al on for-making-stars-its-not-just-how-much-gas-a-galaxy-has-that-matters-its-where-its-hiding

Climate

• skeptical science on fact-brief-di vikings enjoy a warm beach climate in greenland , volcanic-cooling , ClimateAdam-why-has-global-warming-just-spiked, new research for the week
• Omid Gasmini and Ben Newell on climate-scientists-are-trusted-globally-just-not-as-much-as-other-scientists-heres-why
• David Appell on bizarro-arctic-sea-ice
• open mind on critical-thinking
• ocean acidification on fatty-acid-response-of-calcifying-benthic-antarctic-species-to-ocean-acidification-and-warming

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• an-alternative-monty-hall-problem-as-with-the-usual-monty-hall-problem-just-set-it-up-as-a-probability-tree-and-it-all-works-out
  
• why-were-schools-so-slow-to-return-to-in-person-instruction
  
• if-only-arxiv-required-researchers-to-sign-at-the-top-rather-than-the-bottom-of-the-page-none-of-this-wouldve-happened
  
• which-ai-coding-assistant-should-i-be-using
  
• can-language-models-predict-the-next-twist-in-a-story
  
• what-happened-in-2024
  
• prior-as-data-prior-as-belief-prior-as-soft-constraint-prior-as-unconditional-distribution-in-a-generative-model
• exploratory-data-analysis-and-confirmatory-data-analysis-are-the-same-thing
  
• statschat on why-do-you-want-to-know , no-next-question , how-many-coffees-is-a-house , golf-doctors-and-parkinsons-disease
• freakometrics on unveil sources of uncertainty

Dianne Coyle ( quirky - book reviews)

• the-power-of-ideas
  
• Colin Kidd on dangerous-chimera Thanks Nick
• Stephen Grenville on us-dollar-everyone-s-problem
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading
• Andrew Gelman on eunji-kims-book-the-american-mirage-how-reality-tv-upholds-the-myth-of-meritocracy

Vox Wonk

• overcoming-constraints-how-banks-helped-us-firms-reroute-their-supply-chains
  
• big-techs-ai-empire
  
• digital-access-and-gender-representation-case-major-connectivity-shock-sub-saharan
  
• nordic-model-wage-coordination-crossroads
  
• trade-imbalance-network-and-currency-fluctuations
  
• new-ebook-trumps-great-trade-hack
  
• chinese-banks-and-their-emde-borrowers
  
• living-la-vida-loca-remote-investing-latin-america-1869-1929
  
• expanding-private-insurance-long-term-care-reduce-public-spending
  
• moderate-growth-amid-global-trade-uncertainty-commissions-spring-2025-forecast
  
• disentangling-trade-policy-uncertainty-and-equity-market-performance
  
• real-effects-brexit-labour-demand
  
• foreign-returns-nations-puzzle
  

The RBA cuts rates but have they learnt anything?

The RBA cut rates yesterday by 25 points. without any fanfare they have essentially said they were too pessimistic about inflation falling.

Why you ask.

Over to:

• Millie Muroi
• Greg Jericho

We are not living in the 1980s let alone the 1970s. Both sides of politics have enabled employers to have the upper hand in wage negotiations. Few econocrats seem to understand this. WHY!

the Nationals are mad

 First here are some views:

• nationals-break-the-coalition-in-a-major-blow-to-sussan-ley
  
• the-coalition-is-on-a-break-but-the-nationals-risk-finding-their-former-partner-doesnt-want-them-back
  
• david-littleproud-cites-nuclear-energy-disagreement-as-major-factor-in-coalition-split
  
• the-band-is-breaking-up-has-the-coalition-stopped-making-sense
  

The Nationals wanted to be part of cabinet but then argue against the cabinet position if they disagreed. This is obviously stupid and could never be agreed to.

The Nationals have to understand it is the Liberals winning seats that will mean a change of government not them.

Two major problems loom now there is no coalition. Either of the two parties may develop a policy the other party won't wear. Also both parties will have seperate speakers for policy makers. This could lead to a relative unknown making a good impression in the area they are the spokesman for.

In both cases it makes it very difficult for both parties to become a coalition again.

Australia does not win here only the ALP does. It makes a change of government virtually impossible

I should add if the coalition is to win an election then they have to win in the suburbs. This aint going to happen if the parties are not fair dinkum on climate change. Just remember in six years time ( I think we can assume the earliest the coalition can win is in 6 years time) renewables will be powering  energy bigtime and together with batteries and pumped hydro this will reduce costs. The main drivers of high energy costs ie coal and gas will either not be in the system or in a very  minor role. 

A great read on Trump's tariff debacle

 Voz wonk as I call it has a great new E-book on Trump's tariffs.

It is a wonderful read!

coal fired power stations are the problem

 Read THIS and weep. The unreliability of coal fired power stations are causing higher energy prices and huge problems for policy makers.

On a related matter Ketan Joshi has a rather lengthy article on blackouts in various places and the progress of renewables.

Around the Traps 14/5/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• philosophy bear on the-australian-left-rises-what-everyone-is-missing-about-the-election-results Thanks Nick
• Josh Holloway on greens-election-hubris-how-the-minor-party-lost-its-way-and-now-its-leader
• Mark Melatos on new-taxes-on-super-didnt-get-much-attention-in-the-election-campaign-but-they-could-be-tricky-to-implement
• Nick Fabbri on aussie-rules-democracy-sausages-budgie-smugglers-electoral-integrity
• Ross Gittins on game-theory-explains-why-liberals-lost-and-how-they-could-win , ross-garnaut-prophet-with-sunny-view-of-our-better-future , whatever-happened-to-cost-living-we-were-so-worried-about
• the tally room on senate count update a leftwing landslide
• Ketan Joshi on what-happens-when-the-opposition-elevates-enemies-of-renewable-energy
• Edward Hurcombe on in-the-age-of-the-influencer-does-the-political-backing-of-news-corp-matter-anymore
• Carolin Kautz on china-s-friendly-neighbourhood-diplomacy-has-consequences-australia
• Michelle Grattan on if-jacinta-nampijinpa-price-became-liberal-deputy-it-would-be-a-wild-ride
• Mark Kenny on sussan-ley-makes-history-but-faces-unprecedented-levels-of-difficulty
• croaking cassandra on ministers-of-finance
• Greg Jericho on australia-wage-growth-remains-solid-but-now-the-recovery-needs-to-be-sustained

OZ Climate

• what-needs-to-happen-to-prove-the-lnp-wrong-and-the-high-renewables-target-right
  
• epbc-act-whats-changing-and-why-it-matters-for-renewable-energy-projects
  
• riddled-with-breakdowns-why-intermittent-coal-power-is-a-major-threat-to-grid-reliability
  
• nsw-seeks-bidders-to-build-states-biggest-renewable-energy-zone-in-new-england
  
• huge-wind-and-battery-project-headed-to-ipc-after-long-distance-objectors-force-more-hearings
  
• if-nuclear-lost-the-election-for-the-lnp-home-solar-and-batteries-won-it-for-labor-its-time-to-double-down
  
• victoria-lays-out-plan-for-seven-renewable-zones-and-four-new-transmission-lines-to-replace-coal
  
• Andrew King on its-almost-winter-why-is-australia-still-so-hot
• Ganna Pogrebna on range-anxiety-or-charger-drama-australians-are-buying-hybrid-cars-because-they-dont-trust-public-chargers

Northern America

• one first on suspending-habeas-corpus thanks Brad
• Stewart Prest on mark-carney-tells-donald-trump-canada-is-not-for-sale-in-a-high-stakes-oval-office-meeting
• Brad De Long on tariffs-tantrums-and-deals-made-of-tinsel
• Maha Natal et al on donald-trump-has-reduced-tariffs-on-british-metals-and-cars-but-how-important-is-this-trade-deal-experts-react
• Kruggers on when-an-arsonist-poses-as-a-firefighter , is-this-the-year-we-doom ,   civilization , lessons-from-the-newark-debacle
• Andrew Prokop on trump-us-china-trade-war-tariff-pause-90-days
• Fred Kaplan on trump-plane-qatar-security-risks
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on qatar-air-force-one-scandal-trumps-corruption , supreme-court-analysis-birthright-citizenship-trump-power , trump-doj-ignore-scotus-amy-coney-barrett-elena-kagan , 
• Robert Waldmann on trump-caves-on-tariffs
• the conversable economist on whats-a-new-drug-worth
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-03
• Abdallah Fayyad on trump-qatar-plane-gift-air-force-one
• Alex Tabarrok on econ-101-is-underrated , manufacturing-went-south
• Michael Luttig on law-america-trump-constitution
• Sam Roggeveen on trump-s-extraordinary-saudi-speech
• Joshua Keating on trump-israel-hamas-houthis-iran
• noahopinion on america-has-become-a-laughingstock
• Barbara McQuade on trump-failed-us-attorney-ed-martin-doj
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-analysis-donald-trump-cecot-plan

Europe

• Kruggers on 50-years-of-portuguese-democracy
• Ed Turner on friedrich-merz-confirmed-as-germanys-chancellor-but-betrayal-by-mps-in-a-secret-ballot-means-he-starts-from-a-position-of-weakness
• Dilnoza Ubaydullaeva on what-s-really-show-foreign-leaders-victory-parade-moscow
• Stefan Wolff and Tetyana Malyarenko on territorial-concessions-will-be-central-to-any-ukraine-peace-deal-and-to-russias-long-term-plan
• stumbling and mumbling on why-we-need-a-strong-left

Asia

• Farah Jan on india-pakistan-ceasefire-shouldnt-disguise-fact-that-norms-have-changed-in-south-asia-making-future-de-escalation-much-harder
• Jiwon Kim on time-consistent-approach-north-korean-human-rights
• Rushali Saha on india-pakistan-ceasefire-modi-faces-re-hyphenation-challenge-after-trump-s-kashmir
• Khang Vu on why-has-north-korea-finally-admitted-its-troops-are-dying-russia-s-war-ukraine
• William Mathews on security-chinese-characteristics-how-global-security-initiative-reflects-beijing-s
• Abhijnan Rej on abnormal-states-kashmir-between-empire-insurgency-intrigue
• Vincent So on beiping-model-how-china-could-absorb-taiwan-without-war
• Gal Koplewitz on legal-whack-a-mole-israel-acri
• Ruth Margalit on the-israeli-soldiers-who-refuse-to-fight-in-gaza
• Intifar Chowdury on after-an-autocratic-leader-was-toppled-in-bangladesh-democratic-renewal-remains-a-work-in-progress

Wonk

• Brad De Long on reading-from-rumbold-to-carnegie-to-techbros, the-nearly-ultimate-tolkien-magic-system-explanation
• Tim Harford on how-to-do-without-the-donald
• noahopinion on the-crisis-of-the-21st-century-is-here
• the conversable economist on spring-2025-journal-of-economic-perspectives-freely-available-online , how-a-small-share-of-firms-drive-economic-growth , prepping-for-the-next-pandemic
• Kruggers on causes-benefits-and-costs-of-international-trade
• Chris Bertram on perry-andersons-lazy-endorsement-of-us-self-mythologising
• Selwyn Parker on beyond-panama-suez-new-trade-routes-bid-reshape-global-shipping

General

• Ronnie Das and Simon Chadwick on the-premier-league-champions-have-already-been-crowned-but-theres-still-a-lot-on-the-line-mainly-money
• Roy Farman and Mike Archer on newly-discovered-frog-species-from-55-million-years-ago-challenges-evolutionary-tree

Climate

• Issy Borley et al on even-as-emissions-level-off-carbon-dioxide-in-the-atmosphere-is-growing-faster-than-ever-heres-why
• David Appell on co2-430-ppm
• skeptical science on fact-brief-weather
• real climate on the-most-recent-climate-status

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• a-study-is-conducted-on-two-groups-when-does-it-make-sense-to-report-two-separate-estimates-and-when-does-it-make-sense-to-just-report-the-pooled-estimate
  
• plotting-truth-vs-predicted-value
  
• bad-advice-all-over-the-internet
  
• chaining-bayes-priors-from-posteriors
  
• using-stan-to-do-sequential-bayesian-updating
  
• struggles-with-surveying-nonvoters-and-young-voters
  
• statschat on sheep-population-down , international-comparisons-2
• Marc Bellamare on Yair Mundiak and the fixedeffects estimator

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• turn-left
  
• Andrew Gelman on the-lives-theyre-living-and-this-new-biography-of-elaine-may

vox wonk

• impact-international-economic-sanctions-informal-employment
  
• working-home-boosted-growth-expanding-disability-employment
  
• big-news-missing-big-picture-stock-market-performance-news
  
• human-capital-formation-key-component-europes-defence-build
  
• exchange-rate-uncertainty-tariff-hikes-and-adjustment-costs
  
• recent-trade-policy-actions-insights-multiple-models
  
• when-illusions-wealth-shape-economy-understanding-pseudo-wealth-macroeconomic
  
• agreed-and-disagreed-uncertainty-rethinking-macroeconomic-impact-uncertainty
  
• what-financial-sector-needs-know-about-climate-related-risks-next-five-years
  
• majority-influencer-advertising-undisclosed
  

The Greens

 Let us examine the Greens for a minute.

They went backwards in the HoR but gained strength in the Senate. To some extent this is not surprising. The greens will only win seats in the HoR when they run second to the liberals in primaries and then win on ALP preferences. If they finish second to the ALP then the Liberals will enable the ALP to win it.

This should tell the Greens they will never be a major party. They should not repeat the hubris and thus decline of the australian democrats.

Indeed they might just try a variation of what made the australian democrats so successful. To keep the bastards honest. This is particularly so regarding climate change and the environment.

If they did this people like me might ignore their rantings on other subjects knowing important policies will not be opposed.

I think their leadership vote is as bad as the Liberals. It is ironic the only people in the greens who show any leadership qualities are males!

we shall see if the greens decline like the ADs or maintain their status as a senate party of significance.

words fail me

 Of course a convicted felon would see no problem in accepting a plane for a US president. Anyone else would.  It clearly looks like a bribe BUT he cannot even accept it as a gift unless congress agrees. 

People with memories would remember Obama had to get congress agreement merely to accept the money from the nobel prize he was ludicrously awarded. 

The aeroplane present is stupidity on wings for all sorts of reasons.  It would take a lot of money for the plane to be suitable re security.  That is just for starters.

Only under Trump

The 'peace talks' will be a waste of time

 Russia will meet Ukraine in 'peace talks' soon. Zelensky will be there but Putin is doubtful. Is he worried about losing his control?

It will be a waste of time. Putin has no interest in peace talks. As long as he gives the pretense of wanting peace and the US envoy and trump repeat his talking points he has no need. the US is not giving Ukraine more resources and thus is weakened. Russia gradually gains more territory. Even though the russian economy is not looking good there is little understanding of this.

to go back to the start Biden was ultra-timid. He ensured both that Ukraine would not lose BUT they could not win. Putin bluffed him and it worked.  Trump is simply pig ignorant and thinks people are after both Putin and him.

There is only one way to get peace. Give Ukraine everything they want and get Russia to understand they will never win. What worries people about this strategy is the future of Putin and thus Russia.

The West cannot allow Russia to win this war. the West would lose influence and respect and it would allow authoritarians all around the world to do anything and get away with it.

some post-election thoughts

 Okay no-one but no-one saw this coming! To give her credit Laura Tingle was consistent in her exposition of how bad the Opposition was performing

It is very hard to say the ALP got this from superb governing  ( timid governments are very rarely great. Keir Starmer take note) therefore this shellacking occurred because of how the electorate viewed the election.

First the government. The sackings of both Dreyfus and Husic was poorly done. Both were competent performers. Dreyfus is 68 and widowed. Why was he not told before the election? The ALP has talent but will they get a go? the experience of Andrew Leigh is interesting. So will how Andrew Charlton  progresses.

Some will say Abbott got a similar victory only to muck it up however this is a second term government and unlike Abbott Albo has been reasonably okay in his ministries and we know about his political judgement. also important Abbott only won because some on the NSW right thought they could fight internally and publically and sti lwin because of abbott. they were badly wrong and overrated on political acumen.

The Liberals are in a dark place. they got a thrashing and had little policy to speak of. A leadership battle between Taylor and Ley appears to be more of a joke than a serious contest. The defection of Price is problematic. Her influence on the election was quite negative. Much too trumpy to succeed here. What are they going to stand for. Their nuclear policy was rarely talked of in the election and never appeared serious. We do not know what they would do in terms of fiscal policy or defence for that matter. given they are clearly 6 years away from government there is plenty of time for anyone to develop decent policy.

There has been a pile on towards the Greens because of their HOR results. However their senate result was quite good. They need to concentrate on that and keep the ALP honest on climate policy. The best leader would have been Mc Kim but he won't run so we shall see!

Not much to say about the National party Littleproud did okay I thought. they are a rump and will always be such. They are susceptible to a good independent in seats.

Stop the press

I am reading about Tim Wilson and the future of the Liberal party. If Tim Wilson is the answer then you have asked the wrong question.

Around the Traps 7/5/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark Kenny on dutton-and-the-coalition-did-not-do-the-work-and-misread-the-australian-mood
• Daniel Flitton on australia-s-election-after-branding-his-opponents-trump-albanese-now-needs-work-us
• Mark the Ballot on wow
• Michelle Grattan on second-term-albanese-will-face-policy-pressure-devastated-liberals-have-only-bad-options
• Mathew Ricketson and Andrew Dodd on in-its-soul-searching-the-coalition-should-examine-its-relationship-with-the-media
• Yee-Fui Ng on labor-has-the-chance-to-do-something-big-in-its-second-term-what-policy-reforms-should-it-take-on
• Paul Strangio on the-feminisation-of-labor-is-a-key-reason-australians-embraced-it-and-anthony-albanese
• Linda Botterill on while-the-liberals-haemorrhaged-the-nationals-held-their-own-is-it-time-to-break-up-the-coalition
• Lisa Farrell and Meg Elkins on why-is-hospital-parking-so-expensive-two-economics-researchers-explain
• Roy Green on labor-says-its-second-term-will-be-about-productivity-reform-these-ideas-could-help-shift-the-dial
• Daniela Gavshon on promoting-human-rights-makes-australia-stronger
• Ross Gittins on duttons-election-campaign-rout-lets-rba-oof-the-hook
• Greg Jericho on reserve-bank-australia-interest-rates-retail-trade-cost-of-living-economy
• Josh Holloway on greens-election-hubris-how-the-minor-party-lost-its-way-and-now-its-leader
• Mark Melatos on new-taxes-on-super-didnt-get-much-attention-in-the-election-campaign-but-they-could-be-tricky-to-implement

OZ Climate

• there-is-no-going-back-aemo-bids-goodbye-to-baseload-grid-and-spins-high-renewable-future
  
• wind-can-deliver-offshore-scale-projects-for-onshore-price-in-inland-australia-spanish-giant-says
  
• australia-lays-out-red-carpet-for-rapid-green-energy-transition-can-labor-seize-the-moment
  
• wind-solar-and-batteries-push-fossil-fuels-to-record-lows-but-costly-coal-and-hydro-keep-prices-high
  
• thirteen-things-on-labors-climate-and-energy-ministers-must-do-list-to-change-the-system
  
• tasmania-seeks-feedback-on-how-to-spin-its-renewables-advantage-into-green-fuel-gold
  
• forrest-and-key-cis-projects-win-big-as-nsw-grants-grid-access-to-giant-wind-solar-and-battery-facilities
  
• new-rule-to-encourage-networks-to-make-poles-and-wires-resistant-to-storms-and-climate-risk
  
• Anna Skarbeck and Anna Malos on 5-huge-climate-opportunities-await-the-next-parliament-and-it-has-the-numbers-to-deliver
• Adam Simpson on pie-in-the-sky-after-the-coalitions-stinging-loss-nuclear-should-be-dead-heres-why-it-might-live-on
• Wesley Morgan and Ben Newell on australia-is-set-to-be-a-renewables-nation-after-labors-win-theres-no-turning-back

Northern America

• Peter Turchin on we-will-demolish-the-world-of-oppression Thanks Nick
• the politics of truth on black-like-me-and-outsider-insight Thanks Nick
• Alan Elrod on oklahoma-city-ice-raid-family-defend-themselves
• spoils of war on trump-is-opening-the-enemies-briefcase Thanks Nick
• institutional economics on the-first-100-days
• noahopinion on why-do-econ-journalists-keep-making-this-basic-mistake , the-tech-right-is-not-succeeding , globalization-did-not-hollow-out-the-american-midddle-class
• the conversable economist on us-holders-of-foreign-assets-foreign-holders-of-us-assets-and-exorbitant-privilege , how-can-you-tell-if-health-insurance-helps-health
• eight by seven on the-news-on-definitions Thanks Brad
• Kruggers on understanding-trumps-budget-proposal , will-trump-pretend-to-fix-what-he-broke
• Sean Illing on politics-covid-frances-lee-partisan-divide
• Eric Levitz on value-dollar-trump-tariffs-trade-war
• Brad De Long on models-meeting-structural-economic-mayhem , donald-trump-is-too-old-to-be-president , wasnt-wall-street-was-supposed-to-have-veto-0ver-trumps-policies
• Toby Slade and Dijhearne Mulhearn on tailoring-and-the-black-dandy-how-250-years-of-black-fashion-history-inspired-the-2025-met-gala
• Mark Stern on supreme-court-trump-trans-military-purge-analysis
• Maia Mindel on political-divide-men-women-economics-policy
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-intellectuals-liberal-bubble-fox-federalist-society
• Dylan Scott on us-measles-outbreak-cases-deaths-charts
• Andrew Prokop on trump-gop-establishment-rubio-bessent-tariffs-ukraine
• Fred Kaplan on trump-iran-deal-russia-ukraine-nobel
• Alex Tabarrok on godfathers-of-protectionism

Europe

• Christopher Caldwell on romanias-war-on-democracy Thanks Nick
• Felix Martin on europe-can-take-advantage-king-dollars-wobble Thanks Nick
• Martin Simenka on how-the-helsinki-final-act-changed-my-life Thanks Nick
• Kruggers on a-note-from-the-netherlands
• Eve Warburton and Olga Boichek on why-zelensky-not-trump-may-have-won-the-us-ukraine-minerals-deal
• Ed Turner on friedrich-merz-confirmed-as-germanys-chancellor-but-betrayal-by-mps-in-a-secret-ballot-means-he-starts-from-a-position-of-weakness

Asia

• Ishaaal Zehra on kashmir-why-was-india-so-quick-blame-pakistan
• the conversable economist on koreas-low-fertility-rate
• Kazimier Lim on what-can-we-learn-singaporean-election-where-nobody-lost
• noahopinion on thoughts-on-sinofuturism
• Ian Hall on india-and-pakistan-have-fought-many-wars-in-the-past-are-we-on-the-precipice-of-a-new-one
• Leoni Connah on are-india-pakistan-now-war
• Rodger Shanahan on netanyahu-s-move-to-seize-gaza-won-t-save-the-hostages-and-he-knows-it
• Leoni  Connah on everyone-lives-in-fear-trapped-between-two-warring-nuclear-giants-the-people-of-kashmir-continue-to-suffer
• Andrew Selth on united-states-really-planning-proxy-war-myanmar

Wonk

• the garden of earthly delights on the-vibes-based-international-order Thanks Nick
• optimally irrational on why-mearsheimer-is-wrong Thanks Nick
• Romain Gauriot and Lionel Page on Fooled-by-Performance-Randomness-Overrewarding Thanks Nick
• Alice Evans on why-are-so-many-latin-american-women-beaten-and-murdered Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on predictions-arent-always-about-the-future
• Richard Dunkley on undersea-cable-control-information-dimension
• Evan Freidin on american-abroad-how-one-influencer-s-visit-china-turned-tables
• Angel Zhong on as-warren-buffett-prepares-to-retire-does-his-investing-philosophy-have-a-future
• Alex Tabarrok on has-clothing-declined-in-quality
• Kruggers on tariffs-and-poverty-around-the-world
• Jeffrey Mcgee et al on antarctica-s-treaty-testing-times
• Dennis Doyle on pope-leo-xiv-faces-limits-on-changing-the-catholic-church-but-francis-made-reforms-that-set-the-stage-for-larger-changes

General

• Christina Znedek and Timothy Jackson on super-antibodies-for-snake-toxins-how-a-dangerous-diy-experiment-helped-scientists-make-a-new-antivenom
• Darius Sporzynski on popes-have-been-european-for-hundreds-of-years-is-it-time-for-one-from-africa-or-asia

Climate

• open mind on arctic-sea-ice-5
• skepticaL science on visualizing-daily-global-temps-part2 , new_research
• moyhu on april-global-surface-templs-down-0076-from-march
• Doug Richardson and Andreia Ribeiro on australia-and-north-america-have-long-fought-fires-together-but-new-research-reveals-that-has-to-change
• David Appell on 50-years-at-030cdecade

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• again-yeah-yeah-i-understand-why-youre-all-talking-about-accusations-of-fraud-but-for-the-rest-of-us-its-about-the-non-replication-and-the-bad-science-not-about-possible-fraud-and-blame
  
• the-flying-venus-flytrap-and-other-partly-baked-ideas
  
• on-sociological-exploitation-why-the-guinea-pig-sometimes-bites
  
• evaluation-blind-spots-and-eliciting-moving-targets
  
• misattribution-when-someone-claims-you-said-something-that-youve-never-said-its-kind-of-like-plagiarism-in-reverse
  
• dont-hold-out-on-me-some-thoughts-on-out-of-sample-prediction
  
• back-before-he-was-a-vaccine-denier-law-professor-richard-epstein-was-a-cliche-spinning-dispenser-of-misinformation
  
• statschat on comparative-ultra-processed-reports, genetic-determinism-mosquito-bite-edition , a-moveable-fast
• freakometrics on optimal transport on categorical data

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Brink Lindsay on abundance-and-the-permanent-problem Thanks Nick
• Andrew Gelman on books-by-charles-rosen-and-jeremy-denk-on-piano-playing-and-the-nature-of-music

Vox Wonk

• unequal-costs-carbon-pricing-european-regions
  
• short-term-labour-mobility-drives-innovation-africa
  
• why-monetary-policy-should-crack-down-harder-during-high-inflation
  
• avoiding-kindlebergers-trap-dollar-coalition-willing
  
• roaring-tariffs-global-impact-2025-us-trade-war
  
• effects-fiscal-aid-health-outcomes-during-covid-19-pandemic
  
• how-refugees-continue-positively-shape-greek-economy-over-century-after-they-arrived