Not Trampis: March 2018

The board of Cricket Australia and the CEO have to go.
They continued to bury their heads in the same when the Australian team played where sledging was taken to a higher level.
It appeared they had never heard of showing respect to your opponent.
Now when this woeful culture problem in the Australian dressing room comes to its natural conclusion they shout in loud voices this is all dreadful.
The most dreadful thing is the rank hypocrisy.

Was James Sutherland thinking of the good of the games when he made his various news conference or was he thing of shrinking future revenue streams?

How did the punishment fit the crime? A year long ban? They did not try and fix a match for petes sake.

One comes to the natural conclusion the punishment came about because of Sponsor problem. It had nothing to do with the crime.

Get rid of all of them please!

I should add one more thing. A punishment way out of proportion to the crime is more likely to lead to psychological problems for those being punished. Has CA done anything to help all three cricketers? I very much doubt it.

Tuesday, 27 March 2018

The 'Cricket reaction' is over the top

Steve Smith is not the first skipper to be found guilty of tampering with the ball. He is the first to admit it though.
I have heard people wanting the three involved being suspended from anything from life to a year.

This is way over the TOP.
The ICC suspended smith for ONE test match.
I said previously I thought the punishment that fitted the crime was missing a whole test series. Nothing more and nothing less. A year ban is nothing short of ridiculous.

Let us get this whole affair in proportion.
What also should occur is the behaviour of both the ACB and the umpires.

How how the ACB allowed the appalling behaviour of the players to continue so long without a mutter.

how have the umpires allowed it?

The spirit of cricket entails RESPECT for the Opposition. The Australian team have rarely shown this.

What a pity we cannot copy out Kiwi cousins who lose and win with dignity!

Monday, 26 March 2018

Malaysia is in a mess

Not a lot of attention is paid to Malaysia.

This is a shame.
Like its neighbour their elections are a sham making a change of Government very hard if not impossible.

I still remember reading a long time ago how that dreadful previous Prime Minister promoted a lowly Judge who was to then hear the charge against the former Deputy PM. We then found out why. Despite the defence proving that the building in which the alleged offence had occurred had not even been built at the time the Judge allowed the trial to continue until the prisoner was found guilty. How surprising.

Now these two former political enemies have teamed up!

Now there is a timely article on Malaysia's dire democratic future.

Sunday, 25 March 2018

The ball tampering fiasco

Well I was umpiring the Junior and Senior finals yesterday when all anyone wanted to talk about was the ball tampering.

I had to be told because after a day starting at 8.30 and finishing around 6 with a 1 hour break i was knackered.

I could not believe at first. however when people with smart phones showed me what occurred I was appalled.
Why did it occur?
Ball tampering occurs now because of reverse swing. The earlier this occurs the greater the advantage to bowlers as reverse swing is very sharp and late.
what the Australians did was CHEATING.

Everyone involved should be stood down.

The players should not play the next series against India and both Lehman and Saker should be sacked.

Why we are paying too much for electricity

Yet again we get another report from the Grattan Institute on the price of electricity. Gold plating of the poles and wires is the main reason.

Hmm John Quiggin has some criticisms

Thursday, 22 March 2018

Around the Traps 23/3/18

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Gary Mortimer on explainer-why-wesfarmers-is-ditching-coles
Croaking Cassandra on eaqub-on-nz-policymaking , taxes-housing-and-economic-underperformance, a-couple-of-reserve-bank-items , so-much-company-tax-so-little-investment , on-aspects-of-reserve-bank-reform
Ross Gittins on immigration-cheap-and-nasty-way-to-grow-the-economym how-labor-is-taking-on-greedy-elderly, economic-case-for-cutting-company-tax-is-weak
Greg Jericho on are-retirees-hit-by-labors-policy-and-what-is-a-wealthy-household
Selina Ward on new-coral-bleaching-outbreak-in-nt-a-worrying-sign-of-our-warming-oceans
Craig McMillan et al on why-union-members-earn-higher-wages-than-their-non-union-colleagues
Brendan Coates and Danielle Wood on the-real-story-of-labors-dividend-imputation-reforms
Miranda Stewart and Teck Shi Wong on new-zealand-us-and-uk-outrank-australia-in-scores-on-budget-transparency
Mark the Ballot on pollster-preference-flows
Kate Griffiths on as-the-libs-claim-south-australia-states-are-falling-into-line-behind-the-national-energy-guarantee
John Quiggin on government-report-cheers-for-wage-cuts

Northern America

The Conversable Economist on an-ncaa-financial-digression-during-march-madness
Barry Eichengreen on what-explains-dollar-weakness
the conversable economist on the-distribution-and-redistribution-of-US-Income , opioids-brought-to-you-by-medical-care-industry
Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-february-existing-home-sales , a-few-comments-on-february-new-home-sales
Zeeshan Aleem on trump-china-tariffs-trade-war
Spencer England on import-and-export-growth-and-an-expanding-trade-deficit-do-not-need-a-strong-dollar
Michael Green on what-expect-john-bolton-white-house
Ezra Klein on donald-trump-john-bolton-firing-staff-national-security
Perry Bacon on trump-is-bringing-in-loyalists-and-getting-rid-of-critics
Robert Shiller on trump-recession-forecast Thanks Mark

Europe

Mainly Macro on beliefs-about-brexit
stumbling and mumbling on centrists-capitalism , the-country

Asia

Hui Feng on chinas-new-central-bank-governor-will-have-to-deal-with-massive-debt-and-an-ambitious-economic-agenda
Stephen Grenville on sky-not-falling-asia-central-banks
Amrita Malhi on najib-makes-electoral-hay-asean-australia-summit

Wonk

Kevin Kelly on the-myth-of-a-superhuman-ai Thanks Brad
Mainly Macro on a-road-to-right-wing-authoritarian-government , the-output-gap-is-no-longer-sufficient-statistic-for-inflationary-pressure
Tim Harford on oxfam-metoo-and-the-psychology-of-outrage
long and variable on 1p-2p-50-a-b-c-as-a-nominal-anchor-that-does-not-require-measuring-the-price-level
stumbling and mumbling on the-illusion-of-knowledge
Nick Rowe on monetary-and-fiscal-federalism-debt-canada-and-the-eurozone
Roger Farmer on what-does-it-mean-to-have-rational-expectations-wonk-warning
Macro mania on what-anchors-inflation
The Conversable Economist on what-if-country-bonds-were-linked-to-GDP-growth , contingent-valuation-and-deepwater-horizon-spill
Noah Smith on why-money-managers-are-paid-so-much-is-a-mystery
Barkley Rosser on francis-m-bator-dies
Jeff Soplop on facebook-cambridge-analytica-and-the-economics-of-privacy
Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-can-technology-hurt-productivity
Brad De Long on globalization-what-did-paul-krugman-miss

General

Magic, Maths and Money on the-golden-rule Thanks Mark
Robert Ackland on we-need-to-talk-about-the-data-we-give-freely-of-ourselves-online-and-why-its-useful
Andrew Prokop on cambridge-analytica-trump-russia-mueller
Alexis Madrigal on zuckerberg-facebook-cambridge-analytica-statement
John Keane on post-truth-politics-and-why-the-antidote-isnt-simply-fact-checking-and-truth
Sarah Logan on zucker-punched

Climate

Rabett run on sounds-more-like-glacial-geo-adaptation-to-me
and Then There Physics on the-paris-climate-targets
Stoat on trump-and-science-malice-or-indifference

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

No Hesitations on big-data-and-economic-nowcasting
Econometric Sense on will-there-be-credibility-revolution-in-data science-and -AI

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

the-culture-of-finance
beyond-simple-minded-economics-and-policies
Andrew Podger on book-review-clive-hamiltons-silent-invasion-chinas-influence-in-australia
Tim Harford on messy-the-joy-of-chaos

Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 21 March 2018

A Couple of Good Shows on the ABC

Unforgotten has come back for a second season and it is terrific.
Very briefly A person is discovered dead and then found to be murdered after a considerable amount of time.
The police team find out whom he or she was 'friendly' with and gradually find out several suspects all of whom could have been the murderer.
They eventually find the murderer of course. It is well written, well acted. The suspects are particularly good.

I was looking forward to Harrow as I am a great fan of Ion Gruffud. He is a forensic pathologist ( shades of Forever). It is Australian and unfortunately neither the writing nor the acting is as good as Unforgotten however there was a distinct improvement by the second episode.

Gruffud is the standout in this series and I am hoping the improvement continues.

Monday, 19 March 2018

The Grattan Institute blows the whistle on the ALP's dividend imputation reforms.

The very highly regraded Grattan Institute examines the new ALP policy on dividend imputation .
It exposes the false arguments by the Government and others like Judith Sloan.

I did remark about this not long ago.

Whatever happened to Banks?

Way back when I was a lad Banks had a great reputation. no man was more esteemed than the local bank manager.
Now it is the total reverse.
Why is this so? to my mind it was de-regulation. This revolution caused by Paul Keating was meant to bring competition to the financial sector. It didn't. But it did bring large profits and ill though out bonuses.
In the 'old days' the local bank manager went to the company who wanted a loan. They looked at how the company did things. Examined who the customers were , the marketing etc.
These days the local Bank Manager is nothing more than a glorified bank teller. Loans to companies are put on spreadsheets and sent to Head office for approval.

Pressure is put on even the lowly bank teller to sell the customer more products whether they need them or not.

It simply more evidence that if you think the only thing that matters is if a company makes money then you clearly do not understand the capitalist system.

Sunday, 18 March 2018

An ABC rant

Lots to talk about today but after Umpiring yesterday in 39 degree heat I thought a soft touch was warranted.

Offsiders
I thought this show was over-rated previously when Gerard Whateley ran it except when Gideon Haigh was on . The new Host Kelli Underwood has no personality at all. The 'expertsd are not so expert. I ain't taping it again.

Insiders
I have said previously the 'insiders have no special insights that surprise me at all. however Fran Kelly has seen her day. You do not have to be attractive to be on it but at least you need some understanding of the subject. I am afraid after this many years she still prone to say something is significant if a poll is 1 or 2 points different. I afraid she does not understand the term margin of error. I have said previously Hamish McDonald asks far more penetrating questions when he fills in for her.

Miscellaneous
Speaking of great talent I caught Chris Bath filling in for Richard Glover. She is terrific. Her personality oozes out of the radio.
The other person who surprises me is Philip Adams. Get on a topic that is of interest and it is great radio.

Thursday, 15 March 2018

Around the Traps 16/3/18

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

John Edwards on no-urgency-cutting-australian-corporate-tax
Croaking Cassandra on from-the-weekend-current-affairs-shows , productivity-missing-in-action, estimating-nairu, what-do-we-want-with-the-belt-and-road
Mark the Ballot on what-do-you-do-when-data-does-not-fit-the-model
Ross Gittins on how-we-could-gang-up-against-trump-trade=war , whats-making-homes-hard-to-afford-and-what-we-could-do
Melissa Parke on arms-export-goal-risks-standing-good-international-citizen
Dylan McConnell on factcheck-does-south-australia-have-the-highest-energy-prices-in-the-nation-and-the-least-reliable-grid
Greg Jericho on ten-years-post-gfc-were-still-working-thats-the-good-news
The Kouk on as-house-prices-fall-across-australia-should-we-be-worried-for-our-economy

Northern America

Dani Rodrik on trump-tariffs-trade-gimmickry Thanks Mark
Kruggers on trumps-negative-protection-racket-wonkish Thanks Mark
Isabel Sawhill on inflation-unemployment-rate Thanks Mark
Jared Bernstein on the-many-flaws-in-the-senates-rollback-of-dodd-frank-attention-must-be-paid Thanks Mark
Tim Duy on jobs-report-gives-fed-cover-to-retain-gradual-rate-path Thanks Mark
Andrew Gelman on 3-cool-tricks-constituency-service
The Conversable Economist on about-those-tariff-exemptions-for-Canada-and-Mexico, the-distressingly-weak-lessons-of-research-of-gun-control, the-skeptical-view-in-favor-of-antitrust-push
Menzie Chinn on assessing-trends-in-real-shares
Tyler Cowen on america-polarized-think
Calculated Risk on key-measures-show-inflation-about-same
Eureka Alert on the great recession to a toll on public health Thanks Mark
Daniel Flitton on rex-tillerson-sacked-swamp-was-winning
Zack Beauchamp on rex-tillerson-fired-state-department
David Remnick on donald-trump-and-the-stress-test-of-liberal-democracy
John Cassidy on rex-tillerson-gets-fired-the-day-after-he-criticized-russia
Ed Kilgore on what-the-christian-right-sowed-trump-reaped Thanks Brad
Ella Nilsen and Tara Golshan on pennsylvania-special-election-winners-losers-lamb-saccone-trump
Progrowth Liberal on kudlow

Europe

stumbling and mumbling on immigration-the-wrong-battle , cultural-costs-of-high-house-prices , the-persistence-of-fiscal-stupidity what-do-earnings-tell-us
Thomas Piketty on towards-a-union-in-the-union Thanks Mark
Uneasy Money on what-hath-merkel-wrought
Mainly Macro on no-spring-in-uk-air
Coppolla Comment on the-eu-is-not-bastion-of-protectionism
Stephen Blank on russia-counter-intelligence-state
Gabriel Wilder on south-korea-says-metoo-sexual-allegations-topple-prominent-figures

Asia

Barkley Rosser on the-final-end-of-as-isred-line-agreement
Cameron Sumpter on countering-youth-radicalisation-indonesia
Malcolm Cook on asean-not-south-east-asia
Brad Setser on chinas-own-goal-unnecessary-and-counterproductive-budget-fiscal-consolidation

Wonk

Menzie Chinn on the-new-fama-puzzle-post-zlb
Mainly Macro on the-three-mistakes-of-centrism ,budget-deficits-fiscal-councils-and-authoritarian-regimes
Nick Gruen on dranks-in-the-ranks-central-banking-for-all-and-the-gatekeepers-of-micro-economic-reform
Robert Waldmann on a dynamic macroeconomic model with downward nominal rigidity Thanks Brad
Bruce Hoffman on resurgence-of-al-qaeda
Roger Farmer on the-household-fallacy, ergodicity
Roland Rajah on trump-s-tariff-antics-tpp-11-signed
Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on ten-years-after-bear Thanks Mark
Stephen Grenville on cptpp-wobbles-over-foreign-investor-rights
Dina Esfandiary on carrots-sticks-in-the-iran-nuclear-deal
Steve Roth on wealth-and-the-national-accounts-response-to-matthew-klein

General

David Blair on explainer-why-you-can-hear-gravitational-waves-when-things-collide-in-the-universe
Ian Wright on more-of-us-are-drinking-recycled-sewage-water-than-most-people-realise
Andrew Watkins on curious-kids-what-causes-windy-weather
Tim Harford on how-to-have-fun
Tamara Davis on hawking-tackled-the-biggest-question-of-all-how-did-the-universe-begin
Richard Brody on listening-to-miles-davis-and-john-coltranes-final-tour

Climate

Greg Laden on old-oil-new-wind
Moyhu on /buffers-and-ocean-acidification
DeSmogblog on new-scenarios-show-how-world-could-limit-warming-1-5c
and Then Theres Physics on ignoring-adaptation

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

incorporating-bayes-factor-understanding-scientific-information-replication-crisis
murray-davis-learning-stories
formal-take-multiverse
I-fear-many-people-drawing-wrong-lessons-wansink-saga-focusing-procedural-issues-p-hacking-rather-scientifically-important-concerns-2
classical-hypothesis-testing-really-really-hard
need-16-times-sample-size-estimate-interaction-estimate-main-effect
Quantitative Ease on d-is-for-devastating-statistical-error
Statschat on the-7%-solution
Junkcharts on steel-tariffs-and-my-new-dataviz-seminar
Kaiser Fung on the-discontent-of-engineering-uncertainty
John Cook on approximating-gamma-ratios

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

n
Marc Bellamare on identication is not causality causality is not identification
No Hesitations on sims-on-bayes
Alberto Abadie on statistical non-significance in empirical economics Thanks Tyler Cowen

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

economic-development-in-150-pages
republic-of-beliefs
A blog on Winston Churchill on book-review-on-Lloyd George Thanks Jim Rose
John Holbo on adam-roberts-the-thing-itself-a-review

Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 14 March 2018

Low taxable income is not the same as low income

The ALP's new policy on retirees and franking credits has many people either being misled, confused etc on believing people on low TAXABLE incomes is the same as people on low incomes in retirement.

A similar argument was being made when the ALP, announced their new policy in negative gearing. Scott Morrison often did this. Our old friend Sinclair Davidson was it it as well. As I pointed out at the time Banks lend on actual income not taxable income. To imagine a person on say $20k could gain a bank loan for a property was fantasy land.

In this instance we have something similar. Peter Costello in possibly the most irresponsible policy change by a Federal government enabled income from a Superannuation fund to be tax free. ( Cutting tax from contributions and earnings made a lot more sense.)

Hence A wealthy person when working who of course has a lot of superannuation can retire a millionaire with little to no taxable income. It is these people the policy is targeted at. such people are not paying any tax and still are getting tax credits from the ATO. It is unsustainable.

My guess is that the ALP will need to tweak the policy to help those who retire on the pension but overall the policy does get a tick. In this I agree with Saul Eslake again.

Tuesday, 13 March 2018

Rex Tillerson gawn

Trump's Secretary of State was fired by Trump by Tweet. The man is a coward. He does not have the guts to sack people in person.
Am I saddened? No really Tillerson was hopeless. He got rid of a lot of corporate knowledge ( something the private sector regularly does for some unfathomable reason).
Just remember when Trump agreed to meet with the North Korean leader he had no-one with expertise in North Korea to utilise at all and only one with expertise in Asia!

It again highlights what a chaotic place the White House is and how poor his cabinet members and advisors are ( where they have been appointed). This is critical when a President is a stupid as the President.

You do not need to be a Rhodes Scholar to understand why north Korea wanted to meet with Trump and never with previous Presidents. He is easily the worst informed with little knowledge of the key subjects at hand.

Monday, 12 March 2018

The Household Fallacy

How many times have you heard the government has to tighten its belt just like households do.
ROGER FARMER explains in detail why this is fallacious.

Thursday, 8 March 2018

Around the Traps 9/3/18

It is time again for Around The Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

John Daley et al on how-migration-affects-housing-affordability, rba-research-shows-that-zoning-restrictions-are-driving-up-housing-prices
Rachel Ong et al on home-ownership-foundations-are-being-shaken-and-the-impacts-will-be-felt-far-and-wide
Ross Gittins on retailers-affecting-economy-in-ways-we-dont-see , the-economy-is-readying-for-faster-growth
Mark the Ballot on archive-from-2016-australian-federal
Greg Jericho on australian-housing-stuck-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place, australia-isnt-in-recession-but-we-might-as-well-be
Press Gallery Reform on mcfailure
Helen Hodgson et al on negative-gearing-reforms-could-save-a-1-7-billion-without-hurting-poorer-investors
Frank Bongiorno on mis-red-why-bill-shorten-is-not-a-socialist
Evan Franklin and Frank Jotzo on virtual-power-plants-are-in-vogue-but-they-can-be-like-taking-a-sledgehammer-to-a-nut
Gary Mortimer and Louise Grimmer on down-down-and-cheap-cheap-are-gone-gone-why-supermarkets-are-moving-away-from-price
Samantha Hepburn on why-arent-australias-environment-laws-preventing-widespread-land-clearing
Croaking Cassandra on towards-a-new-policy-targets-agreement-2, the-reserve-banks-board, is-the-government-doing-some-serious-thinking-about-immigration-policy,the-treasury-reminds-us-that-gdp-and-productivity-really-are-almost-everything
Richard Holden on vital-signs-the-one-thing-holding-back-an-rba-rate-cut
Australian Parliamentary Library on the_abolition_of_the_457_visa_program

Northern America

Progrowth liberal on wilbur-ross-on-effective-rate-of-protection, jeffrey-sachs-on-trumps-trade-fallacies, cochrane-fails-to-make-his-case-for=trump=tax-cuts-again
Jonathan Stevenson on mcmaster-dereliction-of-duty
Frances Woolley on making-guns-obsolete
Julia Azari on presidential-ratings-are-flawed-which-makes-it-hard-to-assess-trump
Stephen Kirchner on making_america_1930_again
Menzie Chinn on is-trump-special-economic-policy-uncertainty-levels-in-perspective
Nathaniel Rakich on the-states-where-democrats-are-overperforming-most-and-least-in-special-elections
Uneasy Money on what-do-stock-prices-tell-us-about-the-economy
the conversable economist on the-national-defense-argument-for-steel-and -aluminium-tariffs
Perry Bacon on why-gary-cohns-white-house-resignation-is-different , making-sense-of-trumps-two-big-moves-on-north-korea-and-tariffs
Macroblog on a-first-look-at-employment Thanks Mark
Environmental economics on this-article-at-vox-summarizes-everything-that-ive-been-trying-to-say-at-this-blog-for-the-past-10-years Thanks Mark
Brad Setser on how-will-us-fund-its-twin-deficits Thanks Mark
Liberty Street economics on did-the-dodd-frank-act-end-too-big-to-fail Thanks Mark
Larry Summers on currency-markets-send-a-warning-on-the-us-economy Thanks Mark
Tim Duy on questions Thanks Mark
Kruggers on the-macroeconomics-of-trade-war Thanks Mark

Europe

Peter Foster et al on brussels-accused-outrageous-attempt-turn-northern-ireland-eu Thanks Brad
stumbling and mumbling on on-tory-dilettantism
Kevin O'Rourke on thoughts-on-catalonia
Mainly Macro on was-labours-decision-on-eu-immigration-a-mistake , tangled-up-in-red
Cassandra's Legacy on italian-elections-great-five-star
fruits and votes on italy-2018-assessing-the-electoral-system-effect Thanks Jim Rose
Coppolla Comment on the-sad-story-of-maplin-electronics
Kyle Wilson on dead-men-walking

Asia

Khang Vu on north-korea-time-buying-strategy
Richard McGregor on xi-jinping-and-grip-party
Adam Ni on chinas-quest-for-techno-military-supremacy
Jieh-Yuong Lo on beijing-s-welcome-mat-overseas-chinese
Clive Schofield and Bec Stratin on timor-gap-boundary-yet-disputes-linger
Edmund S Phelps on china-innovation-competition-policies Thanks Mark

Wonk

Conor Wynn on the-power-of-consumer-habit-why-businesses-often-struggle-to-expand-overseas
Mike Callaghan on long-road-back-us-re-join-trans-pacific-partnership
Gauti Eggertsson et al on kaldor-piketty-monopoly-power Thanks Brad
Croaking Cassandra on bad-economics-from-the-china-council
Mainly Macro on the-economic-and-political-cost-of-uk-austerity
Tim Harford on like-great-coffee-good-ideas-take-time-to-percolate
The Conversable Economist on rebalancing-economy-toward-workers-and-wages , some-economics-of-place-based-policies
Marc-William Palen on trade-wars-are-good-3-past-conflicts-tell-a-very-different-story
Victor Abramowicz on flawed-logic-russia-s-new-weapon-systems
Mostly Economics on seven-fallacies-concerning-milton-friedmans-the-role-of-monetary-policy Thanks Jim Rose
stumbling and mumbling on management-vs-managerialism
FRBSF on economic-forecasts-with-yield-curve Thanks Mark
Promarket on top5itis-disease-affects-economics
Daniel Flitton on rocket-man-and-dotard-leaders-summit-age
The Kouk on trump-could-cause-the-next-global-recession-here-s-how

General

David Appell on equations-that-changed-world
Tara Leong on you-dont-need-to-quit-sugar-to-improve-your-health
Understanding Society on consensus-and-mutual-understanding
Kieron Rooney on yes-too-much-sugar-is-bad-for-our-health-heres-what-the-science-says
run75441 on impacts-of-temperature

Climate

Moyhu on february-ncepncar-global-anomaly-up-by-0.045C-from-January, february-global-surface-templs-up-005C-from-January
and Then Theres Physics on long-term-climate-goals
Martin Jucker on making-climate-models-open-source-makes-them-even-more-useful
Arctic Sea Ice on piomas-march-2018
Greg Laden on important-advances-battery-front

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

brian-wansinks-misrepresentation-data-research-methods-known-years
shy-trump-voter-meta-question-erroneous-theory-popular
whos-afraid-prediction-markets-hanson-vs-thicke
no-dont-believe-reduction-firearm-injuries-nra-annual-conventions-story
like-harbor-clotted-sunken-vessels
information-flows-ways-martian-conspiracy-theory-edition
another-reason-not-believe-electoral-integrity-project
indeed-study-consistent-x-negative-effect-y
statschat on briefly
Kaiser Fung on the-doping-story-that-wont-go-away
John Cook on minimizing-relative-error
Freakonometrics on Central Limit Theorem
Rick Wicklin on fit-a-distribution-from-quantiles
Tim Harford on your-handy-postcard-sized-guide-to-statistics
Junkcharts on the-tech-world-in-which-everyone-is-below-average

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

No Hesitations on h-index-for-journals

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

if-you-only-read-one-book-about-higher-education
economies-in-space-and-time
Belle Waring on young-man-has-crisis-while-europe-stumbles-into-war
Tim Harford on books-for-people-who-love-numbers
The Grumpy Economist on fama-portfolio

Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 7 March 2018

A few things on the National Accounts

Okay GDP fell below trend to be at 2.4% ( 2017 was 2.3%).

Productivity growth has been low . We thus have very strong employment growth which would normally imply growth of around 3% not 2.3%. This is a worry.

Business investment on the non-mining side of the economy has picked pretty well in the last 6 months.

Household consumption has held up pretty well considering how stagnant wages have been however unless wages pick up this is unsustainable.

The public sector is giving a stimulus to the economy and will continue to do so given all the infrastructure projects in the pipeline pun intended). Net exports were a drag on growth this quarter but should not be in quarters to come.

Most importantly nominal GDP growth is starting to get a bit of steam up hence the improvement in government revenues we have written about recently.

Normally this would be a plus in political terms however this is a government who is fighting amongst themselves with some wanting them to lose the next election so I think this will be ignored!

Hmm Me thinks Greg Jericho is a tad too bearish.
Ross Gittins seems to be on my side, my guess he has been talking to RBA persons

Tuesday, 6 March 2018

Has Bill Shorten got a bad rap over Adani?

Bill Shorten has copped a lot of criticism over saying one thing to miners and another to voters in the Batman electorate.
Is this true. Everything I have read or seen has Shorten saying he only supported Adani if it stacked up financially. He put that caveat on when speaking to miners some time ago,

He is now saying he is against Adani because everything in the mean time has shown it not to be viable.
Indeed since his 'supportive' statement in Queensland Adani has tried and not found anyone to finance the project. Moreover if it were hoping for government handouts to get the project through that is now dashed.
Shorten has also said he would honour any contracts previous Government have entered into if his party wins the next election.

Perhaps Journalists simply have not read what he has said over time.

It is somewhat ironic that the greatest criticism that could be directed at Shorten is that he is over-promising ( and will thus under-deliver when in Government.

In this he is imitating Tony Abbott. It could well be like Abbott he does not have a great understanding of what confronts Australia. Again like Abbott he is under-estimating how much the electorate takes into account the implied promises he is making.

If either of the above is correct then again like Abbott he will be Leader for a short time and out political class will take a huge hit. People make take to voting against major parties in the lower house!

Unlike Abbott however Shorten does not have a history that could lead people to easily forecast he would make a poor PM.
At this stage he has been a 'lucky' politician and he has used that luck. That is no bad thing however what worries me is his lack of years as a politician. Being in politics is no different to any other job. you need to be in it for a while to understand it properly.

We shall see because all the portents are showing a change of government at the next election

Monday, 5 March 2018

Trumps idiocy explained

Trump has never been a very intelligent man in office.
His latest foray merely amplifies this.
Here a just a few articles on this:

Just for laughs an article by our old mate Katesy where he essentially says the theory of comparative advantage does not hold any more.

Related
Marc-William Palen

Sunday, 4 March 2018

Churchill was a highly over-rated politican

Why is Churchill hold in such reverence?

Probably because the allies won war the war as they were always going to.

Churchill was at his peak just before the First World War when he and Lloyd George were formidable adversaries. He was in fact as radical as Lloyd George, He actually advocated Keynesian policies before anyone had heard of them in Opposition but like Lloyd George quickly came into line with discredited classical economic policies when in government. ( From the end of WW! and the start of the Great Depression UK GDP per capita fell!
He was a very good cabinet minister BEFORE becoming first Lord of the Admiralty. Unlike Lloyd George he was quite emotional ( and not a philanderer) and it was because of this the Gallipolli campaign became unstuck.
He was a disastrous Chancellor of the Exchequer and then went to be an embarrassing backbencher.

He saw immediately the political advantages of exaggerating of Hitler and the eventually he came back into cabinet.

His disastrous foray into Scandinavia was somehow forgotten.
What people forget is two things when talking about Britain against Germany.

Firstly as Adam Tooze shows in The Wages of Destruction Germany were Never going to win a world war. Indeed they only 'beat France because everything went right. Against the Soviet Union when they did not they got 'beaten.
In retrospect and even at the time ( Roosevelt was advised so) it would have been better not to help the Soviet Union and just let it and Germany fight it out until no-one was left standing and then 'change' both countries.
Secondly as Bonhoeffer tried to change through his british christian network but failed
Churchill said every German was a nazi thereby prolonging the war as the Germans who saw Hitler for what he was gained no support nor resources from overseas.

After the war Churchill was terrible .He stayed to long, had nothing to offer, fell asleep in cabinet meetings and left Eden to become Prime Minister way too late.
He had no ideology and so did not get rid off Labour's disastrous nationalisation programs.