Monetary policy with negative nominal interest rates

Another really paper coming from Vox wonk as I like to call it.

Gauti Eggerston , Ragnar Juelsrud and Ella Gets wold are the authors of monetary-policy-of-negative-nominal-interest-rates

Sugar taxes

At Vox Wonk as I call it a really interesting paper on sugar taxes.by Pierre Dubois, Rachel Griffith and Martin O'Connell.
Their title is soda-taxes-target-young-not-individuals-high-sugar-diets.

Enjoy!

Greenland, An example of what occurs in global warming.

A wonderful episode last night of Foreign Correspondent by Eric Campbell on Greenland and how global warming is  changing the country.

This is related. Peter Sinclair has a great rant on fact-checking-trumps-climate-delusions

Around the Traps 26/1/18

It is time yet again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Bede Harris on nine-things-you-should-know-about-a-potential-australian-republic
• The kouk on get-ready-for-election-economics
• Graciela Metternicht and Gail Broadbent on australias-electric-car-revolution-wont-happen-automatically
• Croaking Cassandra on trade-agreements-and-the-new-tpp , land-use-regulations-matter
• Katie Allen on packaged-products-may-contain-more-than-the-label-states-including-allergens
• Mumble on labors-turn
• Kate Burridge and Howards Manns on get-yer-hand-off-it-mate-australian-slang-is-not-dying
• Euan Graham on joining-dots-vancouver
• Greg Jericho on productivity-growth-is-complex-but-must-lead-to-better-living-standards
• Australian Parliamentary Library on Australia_Day_Indigenous_reactions

Northern America

• Jonathan Blitzer on did-two-white-house-advisers-help-push-trump-toward-a-shutdown
• Dylan Scott on government-shutdown-2018-senate-democrats-vote
• Ezra Klein on shutdown-compromise-democrats-republicans-blame
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-three-candidates-for-fed-vice-chair
• Larry Summers on trumps-big-choice-at-davos , why-treasury-secretaries-should-stick-with-the-strong-dollar-mantraThanks Mark
• Antonio Fatas on the-shrinking-us-risk-premium Thanks Mark
• John Edwards on what-us-china-trade-war-would-look
• Zach Beauchamp on fbi-texts-fox-news
• Jane Coaston on releasethememo-explained-trump-russia
• Emily Stewart on janet-yellen-federal-reserve-jerome-powell
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-december-new-home-sales
• Angus Deaton on opinion/poverty-united-states Thanks Mark
• Brad Setser on adjustment-hard-especially-if-it-involves-dollar Thanks Mark
• Narayana Kocherlakota on the-fed-can-t-drive-right-without-brakes Thanks Mark
• The Conversable economist on why-has-us-regional-convergence-declined
• Kruggers on solar-power-trump-administration Thanks Mark
• Harry Enten on the-media-is-misreading-how-the-shutdown-blame-game-shook-out
• Mathew Yglesias on trump-not-really-president

Europe

• Wayne McLean on erdogan-outbursts-symbolic-turkey-decline
• John Sheehan on local-property-tax-change-for-better-or-worse
• Coppolla comment on the-carillion-whitewash
• Mainly Macro on the-unanswerable-democratic-case-for-a-second-referendum
• Gloomy european economist on public-debt-i-cant-believe-we-are-still-there Thanks Mark

Asia

• Grant Rumley on mahmoud-abbas-palestine-israel-speech
• Rodger Shanahan on washingtons-weak-hand-play-syria
• Graeme Smith on getting-away-murder-lies-damned-lies-and-chinese-police-statistics
• David Lam on davos-oblivious-to-one-of-free-trades-gravest-threats
• Huang Le Thu on vietnamese-communist-party-corruption-hunt
• Brendan Thomas -Noone on asia-escalating-missile-race
• Barkley rosser on trumps-washing-machine-tariff-reSouth korea
• Mainly Macro on microfoundations-and-values-of-policymakers, the-fatal-inconsistency-within-neoliberalism
• Tim Harford on why-you-should-check-email-less-often-and-how-to-do-it
• Macromania on blockchain-what-it-is-what-it-does-and-you-probably-don't-need-it
• long and variable on the-death-of-the-bitcoin-coder
• Chris Bertram on adam-smith-against-nativist-immigration-policy
• stumbling and mumbling on outsourcing-a-transactions-cost-approach , the-davos-non-paradox , when-selection-mechanisms-fail
• Croaking Cassandra on palmerston-north-or-des-moines
• The Conversable Economist on textiles-your-clothes-are-pollutants , bitcoin-and-illegal-activity , whats-wrong-with-macro-symposium-from-the-oxford-review-of-economic-policy, a-puzzle-why-do-retail-chains-charge-uniform-prices-across-stores
• Menzie Chinn on world-economic-outlook-update-upwardly-revised-growth-rising-risks
• Dani Rodrik on more-on-distinguishing-ideas-and-interests-an-exchange-with-peter-hall Thanks Mark
• Branko Milanovic on dutiful-dirges-of-davos Thanks Mark
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on ensuring-stress-tests-remain-effective Thanks Mark
• Eduardo Porter on fighting-climate-change Thanks Mark
• Economic Principals on modern times Thanks Mark
• John Quiggin on bitcoins-zero-sum-game
• Eric Lonergan on values-in-economics
• Nick Rowe on profits-investment-saving
• Promarket on economic-insecurity-behind-specter-populism Thanks Mark
• Douglas Campbell on reminder-most-published-research-is-probably-wrong Thanks Mark
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-what-the-davos-meeting-is-good-for
• Uneasy Money on is-a-stable-cryptocurrency-an-oxymoron

General

• Dennis Muller on in-the-post-hollywood-reminds-us-what-true-news-should-look-like
• Graeme Smith on how-folk-music-went-from-daggy-to-cool
• Jana Thompson on the-moral-value-of-wilderness
• Scientific American on observations/quantum-epistemology-for-business Thanks Mark 

Climate

• Tamino on is-co2-still-accelerating
• Moyhu on satellite-temperatures-are-adjusted-much-more-often-than-surface
• and then theres Physics on polar-bears-a-rebuttal

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• smartly-io-productized-bayesian-revenue-estimation-stan
• big-data-needs-big-model-2
• better-enable-others-avoid-misled-trying-learn-observations-promise-not-transparent-open-sincere-honest
• appeal-exaggerated-claim-greater-prestige-journal
• bayes-statistics-reproducibility-talk-rutgers-430pm-mon-29-jan-2018
• paper-enemy-retracted
• another-bivariate-dependence-measure
• Junkcharts on two-nice-examples-of-interactivity
• John Cook on distribution-of-matches-between-two-shuffled-decks
• Kaiser Fung on the-new-airline-re-booking-policy , cant-say-it-better , automakers-and-data-sleaze

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• No Hesitations on averaging-for-prediction-in-econometrics-and-ML
• Freakometrics on visualising effects of a categorical explanatory variable in a regression

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• growth-no-growth-degrowth
• what-are-top-people-reading
• Tim Harford on busy-rest-confessions-what-ive-been-reading
• Andreas Ortmann on review-tomers-advanced-introduction-to-behavioral-economics
• John Cook on are-coffee-and-wine-good-for-you-or-bad-for-you

Vox Wonk

• why-societies-cooperate
• microeconomic-shocks-drive-aggregate-fluctuations-europe
• supermarket-transparency-lowers-prices
• effect-age-willingness-take-risks
• new-year-new-you
• global-value-chains-and-firm-heterogeneity
• productivity-and-secular-stagnation-intangible-economy
• macroeconomic-performance-paradox-new-model
• firms-and-collective-reputation
• bank-risk-weights-under-basel-are-not-comparable
• foreign-direct-investment-global-value-chains-and-local-development
• us-import-surges-pretext-protectionism
• rebasing-maddison
• trend-reversal-old-age-labour-force-participation-germany
• importance-frontier-knowledge-generation-ideas

The TPP again.

I have talked about the TPP before but that was when it was being proposed by the USA.
We have it back again.
Croaking Cassandra has beaten to it and writes far more authoritatively than I.
Although he writes from a Kiwi perspective the arguments he puts forward are as valid to Australia,

We both speak from a pro-trade and pro-market point of view. (This is not the same as pro-business as Trump has consistently shown! He is anything but pro-market as one would expect from a former real estate developer)).

This agreement appears to be more about politics than economics.

The Macroeconomic paradox

A very very interesting article on   macroeconomic-performance-paradox-new-model    by Wendy Carlin and David Soskice.

Why is there stagnant productivity, real wages and capital services per hour of labour.
Why is there zero rate of interest rates, low nominal wage growth, high employment growth and low unemployment?

They discuss a new model which may explain all this.

The Post

Dennis Muller and Steve from Brisbane have both commented on this movie.

It is good , very good. Meryl Streep and Tom Hanks get their characters pretty much right but the to me the actor that was the best was Bradley Whitford from the West wing.
He plays a supercilious smug board member and does it so well.

The story is about the Post getting the Pentagon papers from Daniel Ellsberg and Kate Graham growing into the job as the owner of the Post.
It also captures the rivalry it had with the New York Times.

Go and see it.

January 26 should not be Australia Day

On January 26 Governor Arthur Phillip founded a penal colony. He did not even name the place Australia.

Australia became a nation on January 1.Before it was merely a number of separate states.

Therefore that is when Australia day should be!

One Year of Trump and the politics of impeachment

We have had one year of Trump now . Doesn't it seem like a decade.
Conservatives are by far the best critics of Trump. Funny enough John Quiggin has a short article on this.
By far the most devastating critique on Trump was the article written by Tom Nicholls, 
I really cannot add to it and so won't.

What I might do is talk about impeachment.
Trump could be impeached now. He could have been on his very first day. He has no sort any approval for the foreign monies he gets. Remember Obama had to when he received his nobel prize.
However impeaching a President needs a solid and good reason not a technical one.
The Republicans found this out when they tried to impeach Bill Clinton. The electorate clearly thought the reason to impeach him and thus in essence 'sack ' him was not really important.
I do think if you are going to impeach a President and thus remove him you need a reason which shows he is clearly unfit to remain in office.
Whilst Trump's behavioiur is disgraceful it is no different to the behaviour he exhibited during the campaign. Also he also clearly showed during the campaign he was no 'einstein'.

If the Democrats get the numbers to impeach they will need n issue that the electorate agrees is something that cannot be allowed.
The Mueller investigation may find this  and of course it may not!!

Around the Traps 19/1/18

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Stephen Duckett and Greg Moran on why-you-should-avoid-hospitals-in-january
• John Wilson on australian-sports-should-follow-the-english-premier-league-and-reform-salary-caps
• Peter Martin on coal-is-now-biggest-threat-to-energy-security , sugar-has-its-tobacco-moment-as-voters-call-for-new-tax
• Croaking Cassandra on the-reserve-bank-and-housing-collapses , the-rennie-report-finally-sees-the-light , the-reserve-bank-and-financial-regulation, some-chilean-perspectives-on-monetary-policy-decisionmaking-and-communications
• Ken Parish on lateral-thinking-on-constitutional-reform
• Marc Hudson on climate-politics-in-2018-another-guide-for-the-perplexed
• Paul Budde on nbn-write-now-firmly-agenda
• Andrew Elder on join-queue
• Charles Livingstone on removing-pokies-from-tasmanias-clubs-and-pubs-would-help-gamblers-without-hurting-the-economy
• Peter Layton on why-australia-should-consider-sharing-nuclear-weapons
• Andrew Gissing and Lucinda Coates on australias-deadliest-natural-hazard-whats-your-heatwave-plan
• Kirstyn Harman on explainer-the-evidence-for-the-tasmanian-genocide 
• John Quiggin on the-failure-of-vocational-education-and-training-policy-in-australia
• Peter Carroll on three-claims-used-to-justify-pulling-codeine-from-sale-without-a-prescription-and-why-theyre-wrong
• Carol Richards on hunger-in-the-lucky-country-charities-step-in-where-government-fails
• The Kouk on i-m-out-of-the-hammock-to-look-at-some-facts-about-australia-s-labour-market
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-jobs-may-be-increasing-but-the-real-test-is-whether-we-get-a-pay-rise-this-year
• David Hensher on this-is-how-sydneys-transport-system-has-gone-off-the-rails
• Craig Mark on turnbulls-tokyo-visit-draws-australia-and-japans-defence-forces-closer
• Mike Callaghan on  behind-australia-wto-complaint-against-canada
• Greg Jericho on the-main-problem-with-the-nbn-lies-within-the-governments-intent

Northern America

• Henry Giroux on shithole-countries-trump-uses-the-rhetoric-of-dictators
• German Lopez on donald-trump-racism-history
• Livio De Mattio on donald-trump-is-a-mercantilist
• Corey Robin on trumps-power-is-shakier-than-american-democracy
• Tyler Cowen on a-few-simple-points-on-emigration
• No more mister nice blog on marc-thiessens-defense-of-trump-is-even-more-embarassing-than-David-Brooks  Thanks Brad
• The Conversable economist on some-economics-for-martin-luther-king-day, attributing-economic-outcomes-to-Presidents
• Kruggers on dollars-cents-republican-sadism Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on economic-policy-uncertainty-on-the-rise
• New Deal Democrat on real-wages-in-2017
• Jeffrey Frankel on donald-trump-is-making-americas-deficits-great-again
• FRBSF on frbsf-fedviews-current-economy-and-the-outlook Thanks Mark
• Barkley Rosser on are-voters-in-nations-with-poland-especially-sophisticated
• Andrew Prokop on trump-shithole-shithouse-countries
• Jen Kirby and Libby Nelson on trumps-fake-news-awards-annotated
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-december-housing-starts
• Understanding Society on the-second-american-revolution Thanks Mark
• Matt Yglesias on trump-weakness-policy
• Sean Illing on donald-trump-democracy-republicans-trumpocracy 
• Perry Bacon on why-the-chances-of-a-government-shutdown-suddenly-seem-higher
• Raul Grijalva on republicans-trump-silence-racism
• Andrea Freeman on life-death-and-politics-in-hawaii-125-years-of-colonial-rule
• Kumuda Simpson on trumps-first-year-in-office-bizarre-and-sometimes-alarming
• Ezra Klein on shutdown-trump-dreamers-democrats
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-trumps-tax-cut-will-worsen-the-us-current-account-deficit
• Julia Azari on politics-is-more-partisan-now-but-its-not-more-divisive
• Tom Nicholls on trumps-first-year-a-damage-assessment Thanks Brad

Europe

• Stumbling and Mumbling on democracy-in-question
• Mainly Macro on the-problem-with-a-second-referendum
• Nick Gruen on an-ancient-greek-idea-could-foil-brexits-democratic-tragedy
• Thomas Piketty on 2018-the-year-of-europe Thanks Mark

Asia

• Danny Lam on the-case-for-using-military-force-against-north-korea
• Hussain Nadim on pakistan-reluctant-ally
• Frances Kitt on china-s-agenda-behind-inter-korean-talks
• Murali Krishnan on babri-masjid-india-flashpoint
• Barkley Rosser on a-reminder-that-it-was-george-w-bush-who-was-responsible-for-North-Korea-getting-nuclear-weapons
• Sarah Helm on homeless-in-gaza
• Priya Jacko on rahul-gandhi-rise-means-india-politics
• Rodger Shanahan on putins-mission-accomplished-moment
• Malcolm Cook on duterte-unchecked
• Laure Deron on macron-s-mission-china-and-europe
• Donna Weeks on japan-shinzo-abe-faces-challenges-across-board

Wonk

• Macro Musings on do-changes-in-potential-output-and-data-revisions-make-NGDP-targeting-impossible
• long and variable on bitcoin-and-the-underpinning-of-illicit-fundamentals
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on money-funds-the-empire-strikes-back Thanks Mark
• Understanding Society on populisms-base Thanks Mark
• Paul Romer on doing-business , my-unclear-comments-about-the-doing-business-reportThanks Mark 
• Economic Principals on in which manufacturing continues to go the way of agriculture
• Dean Baker on beat-the-press/taxing-money-the-goodfriend-approach-to-monetary-policy Thanks Mark
• Nick Rowe on theory-says-that-equilibrium-interest-rates-can-be-below-growth-rates
• stumbling and mumbling on enes-and-the-left , marxism-as-anti-ideology
• Stephen Grenville on rethinking-macro-economics-missing-financial-sector
• Stochastic Trend on explaining-malthusian-sluggishness
• Croaking Cassandra on remote-regions-immigration-and-prosperity
• Sarah Jane Kelly on we-are-only-starting-to-figure-out-the-value-of-sponsoring-sports
• Giovanni Di Lieto on in-the-economic-power-struggle-for-asia-trump-and-xi-jinping-are-switching-policies
• Joseph Joyce on after-the-global-financial-crisis-are-we-safe-now
• Coppolla comment on lightning-and-fat-controller
• The conversable economist on snapshots-of-economic-inequality-around-the-world , the-global-output-gap-has-closed-what-next
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-inequality-falls-globally-even-as-it-rises-within-country
• Dani Rodrik on has-global-finance-reformed-itself-more-than-it-appears , telling-interests-and-ideas-apart Thanks Mark
• Bank Underground on is-a-steeper-yield-curve-good-news-for-banks-a-challenge-to-the-conventional-wisdom
• Mainly Macro on what-carillion-tells-us-about-public-sector-outsourcing
• Kruggers on Good enough government work. Macroeconomics since the crisis Thanks Brad
• Robert Skidelsky on why-no-intellectual-shift-in-economics Thanks Brad
• Nick Rowe on monetary-policy-accommodation-and-upward-sloping-is-curves

General

• Massimo Garbiuo and Ninthida Lin on the-appeal-of-the-flat-organisation-why-some-firms-are-getting-rid-of-middle-managers
• Sasha Davies on new-study-finds-baby-brain-is-real-but-were-still-not-sure-what-causes-it
• Shusma Malik and Caillan Davenport on mythbusting-ancient-rome-cruel-and-unusual-punishment
• Tyler Cowen on value-media-attention-mass-killers
• Ken Parish on stars-falling-from-the-skies
• Judith Armstrong on guide-to-the-classics-anna-karenina
• Peter Gibbs on a-new-blood-test-can-detect-eight-different-cancers-in-their-early-stages
• Simon Callow on emperor-paul-robeson

Climate

• Tamino on sheldon-walker-and-the-non-existent-pause , jet-stream-sea-ice-polar-vortex , 2017-temperature-summary
• Desmog on nasa-study-resolves-climate-mystery-confirms-methane-spike-ties-oil-gas
• and Then Theres Physics on guest-post-a-new-measurement-of-climate-sensitivity , narrowing-the-climate-sensitivity-range
• James Empty blog on more-sensitivity-stuff
• Cassandra's Legacy on how-to-convince-public-of-danger-of-anthropogenic-warming
• Graham Readfearn on climate-denial-co2-coalition-trump-morner-funding-sea-level-research-dodgy-journals
• Moyhu on giss-december-global-up-003-2017-was-second-warmest

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• dear-thomas-frank
• hey-heres-new-reason-journal-reject-paper-annoying-already-preprint-server
• statistical-behavior-end-world-effect-publication-crisis-u-s-research-productivity
• static sensitivity analysis
• following-needs-immutable-law-journalism-someone-no-track-record-comes-field-claiming-able-job-many-times-better-fraction-cost-burden
• whats-funny-bout-evidence-policy-understanding
• difference-im-not-fire
• aan-institutional-model-persistence-false-belief-dont-think-helpful-describe-scientific-paradigms-true-false-also-boo-cheap-laughs-expense-academia
• get-sense-type-m-type-s-errors-neonatology-trials-often-small-try-fake-data-simulation
• Mayo on s-senn-being-a-statistician-means-never-having-to-say-you-are-certain-guest-post
• Rick Wiklin on data-unavailable-use-the-eyeball-distribution-to-simulate
• Junkcharts on a-look-at-how-the-new-york-times-readers-look-at-the-others ,a-chart-hans-rosling-would-have-loved
• John Cook on gdpr-and-the-right-to-be-forgotten
• Kaiser Fung on 2017-review-and-2018-outlook-on-cybersecurity

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• No Hesitations on comparing-interval-forecasts
• Marc Bellamare on useless hausman tests

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• from-arab-spring-to-fake-news ,exact-thinking-in-demented-times
• Jason Lusk on taste-elasticities Thanks Mark
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading , elinor-ostrom-intellectual-biography-2

Vox wonk

• labour-scarcity-and-labour-coercion-serfdom-bohemia
• consumption-and-income-inequality-us-1960s
• low-inflation-for-longer
• desensitisation-crime-latin-america
• effort-students-put-standardised-tests-varies-widely-country
• measuring-local-economy-yelp-data
• price-cyber-insecurity
• how-reconcile-risk-sharing-and-market-discipline-euro-area
• how-barcode-changed-retailing
• reconsidering-china-shock-trade

Alan Moran gobbelising again

Alan Moran from Catallaxy has another rant on renewable energy.

In the main in revolves around two spurious arguments.
First is that renewables are subsided and that EXISTING coal power is cheaper. Please note there is nothing at all about coal producing negative externalities to society. This includes both pollution and increasing carbon emissions.
What would normally occur in this context is a government would impose a carbon tax ( which we have not had) or and ETS ( which we have had).
Since we do not have either then  ipsofacto there must be a subsidy so renewables  can compete on a even 'football field'.

Secondly Moran again produces the dodgy Minerals Councils 'research' to promote new coal fired stations. We must note that this research is totally contrary to that produced in the Finkel Report.

Who is right?

Well if the Minerals Council and Moran are correct then investors would be running over each other to build new coal fired power plants. Are they? In a word no. And Alan Moran claims to believe in markets!!

Neither investors nor financiers are looking towards new coal fired power stations. That is because the costs of new coal powered power stations are much more costly than for renewables.
They are poor in hot weather as we saw earlier this week, and not good for dispatchable power.
If you use coal powered stations you must produce a hall of a lot more power than is needed. Not very efficient.

We need to award Alan Moran the Goebbels award for this month for misleading articles!

Whoopsy I should have added how the reason for electricity rises by Moran and David Blowers is so remarkably different.

Murder on the Orient Express

I went with my wife last night to the Cinema ( at Macquarie Centre  if you wish to know ro watch Murder on the Orient express.

I was curious to see how Kenneth Branagh would plat Poirot. It jusdt didn't seem a character he could do. Perhaps David Suchet did such a brilliant job of it in the wonderful TV series.
however Branagh being Branagh does a very good characterisation of Poirot. nothing at all like Suchet but very good nonetheless.
Indeed the this movie version is easily the best I have watched probably because it has a cracker of a cast with performances much better than you would expect from some of them which I include Johhny Depp and Michelle Five for  ( I am a cricket fan afterall!!)
some of the scenery is simply out of this world and the cinematography equally so.

I highly recommend the movie.

The Telsa Battery saves us from coal power problems

Dylan McConnell tells us that the Telsa battery has performed beyond expectations since its inception. Indeed it was to the forefront when one of the units at Loy Yang tripped.

We learn further from Peter Martin that coal powered power stations are the biggest threat to energy security!

Negative Gearing and housing.

In the last election any knowledgeable person knew the Coalition was talking porkies on what would occur if negative gearing was not allowed.
Guess what both the Treasury and the RBA agree. Who would have thought???

Not Catallaxy. They still prefer lies.

Around the Traps 12/1/18

It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Rob Roggema and Peter Bishop on the-future-of-sydney-a-tale-of-three-cities
• Brendan Churchill on mum-dad-and-two-kids-no-longer-the-norm-in-the-changing-australian-family
• Croaking Cassandra on a-very-strong-economy-driven-by-the-strong-economic-plan, reflecting-on-jim-anderton , workers-in-a-fools-paradise, NZ Savings Rate Trends , savings-rates-in-international-context
• The Kouk on sydney-house-prices-still-heading-lower
• Greg Jericho on australias-emissions-are-rising-its-time-for-this-government-to-quick-pretending , unemployment-numbers-are-low-the-next-logical-step-must-be-higher-wages, when-it-comes-to-negative-gearing-this-government-prefers-fiction-to-fact
• Barry Godfrey and Lucy Williams on the-story-of-australias-last-convicts
• Linden Ashcroft et al on australias-climate-in-2017-a-warm-year-with-a-wet-start-and-finish
• Michelle Badeley on treasury-memo-misses-the-real-impact-of-labors-negative-gearing-policy
• Nick Gruen on now-is-the-time-for-complacency-rba-v-bank-of-england-edition-2,fred-argy-rip
• Melanie Baak on sudanese-heritage-youth-in-australia-are-frequently-maligned-by-fear-mongering-and-racism
• Dylan McConnell on a-month-in-teslas-sa-battery-is-surpassing-expectations
• The Kouk on australia-has-a-trade-problem , australian-business-expectations-survey-manufacturers-set-for-growth , the-iphonex-economic-boom

Northern  America

• Quantitative Ease on to-eradicate-or-to-manage
• Mike Kimel on the-pro-and-the-con-of-obamacare
• Brad De Long on should-read-doruk-cengiz-arindrajit-dube-attila-lindner-and-ben-zipperer-the-effect-of-minimum-wages-on-the-total-number-of-jobs
• Environmental economics on xxx-the-trump-administration-is-poised-to-roll-back-offshore-drilling-safety-regulations Thanks Mark
• Liberty Street on balance-sheet-normalization , fiscal-implications-of-the-federal-reserves-balance-sheet-normalizationThanks Mark
• Dara Lind on trump-tps-salvador-ms13-immigrants
• John Cassidy on as-trump-goofs-off-his-administration-targets-hard-working-immigrants
• David Remnick on the-increasing-unfitness-of-donald-trump
• run 75441 on i-so-much-despise-a-man-who-blows-his-own-horn-that-i-go-to-the-other-extreme
• Astra Taylor on net-neutrality-is-a-new-deal-issue
• Ezra Klein on michael-wolff-fire-fury-donald-trump-book
• Mathew Yglesias on simpson-testimony-transcript
• Jesse Cross-Call on more-evidence-medicaid-expansion-boosts-health-well-being Thanks Mark
• TA Frank on 25th-amendment-coup-donald-trump-dementia
• Menzie Chinn on formal-assessment-of-the-growth-impact-of-the-tcja
• Nate Silver on are-democrats-senate-chances-overrated
• Macro Musings on wall-street-versus-main-street-ioer
• Progrowth Liberal on negative-interest-rates-and-term-structure-puzzle
• New Deal Democrat on a-us-economic-boom-in-2018?
• Barkley Rosser on does-the-united-states-have-a-poland-problem
• Jeffrey Frankel on republican-tax-reform-reagan Thanks Brad
• Jonathan Chait on why-conservatives-love-dumb-presidents Thanks Brad
• Galen Druke on its-probably-not-possible-to-end-gerrymandering
• Calculated Risk on key-measures-show-inflation-increased-in -december
• Josh Bivens on the-search-for-the-next-president-of-the-new-york-federal-reserve-is-a-big-deal Thanks Mark
• Jennifer Rubin on with-bannon-gone-we-can-see-trumpism-for-what-it-really-is Thanks Brad

Europe

• Tim Harford on william-golding-explains-brexit
• Daniel Woker on austria-judging-lurch-right
• stumbling and mumbling on trapped-by-history , biased-to-the-powerful
• Mainly Macro on does-brexit-end-not-with-bang-but-with-a-wimper
• Copolla comment on tribalism-in-political-appointments

Asia

• Ryan Manuel on china-and-north-korea-following-paper-trail
• Barkley Rosser on how-trump-killed-anti-government-protests-in-Iran
• Aaron Friedberg on turning-point-us-economic-relations-china
• Robert E Kelly on north-korea-probably-does-not-seriously-seek-unification
• Raja Shehadeh on palestine-this-land-is-our-land
• Alice De Jonge on what-we-can-expect-from-chinas-economy-in-2018
• David Rowe and Jung Woo Lee on the-winter-olympics-and-the-two-koreas-how-sport-diplomacy-could-save-the-world
• Cheangxin Pan on time-worry-about-chinese-led-global-order 
• Tom Harper on myanmars-troubles-persist-and-china-sees-it-all-as-part-of-a-great-game
• Amrita Malhi on mahathir-mohamad-crops-up-again-in-bid-to-lead-malaysia-with-anwar-on-the-same-side
• Jonathan Pryke on bad-and-good-china-aid-in-pacific
• Meriden Varrall on understanding-chinas-approach-to-aid
• Michael Heazle on don-t-assume-north-korea-happy-status-quo

Wonk

• Nick Rowe on a-balassa-samuelson-knight-theory-of-negative-real-interest-rates
• Mainly Macro on why-microfoundations-hegemony-holds-back-macroeconomic-progress , Why does economics get so much stick
• Frances Coppolla on toby-youngs-repugnant-eugenics
• The Conversable Economist on no-as-eller-doesnt-have-to-accept-cash , measuring-free-digital-economy, does-retirement-raise-risk-of-death , the-problem-of-questionable-patents, does-retirement-raise-risk-of-death
• stumbling and mumbling on on-anti-meritocracy
• Economic Principals on evidence underway of an insurrection in economics Thanks Mark
• Kenneth Rogoff on economic-growth-amid-political-uncertainty Thanks Mark
• Brad De Long on should-read-david-rezza-baqaee-and-emmanuel-farhi-the-macroeconomic-impact-of-microeconomic-shocks-beyond-hultens-theorem
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-trade-and-inequality-within-countries
• Miles Corak on thinking-about-minimum-wages-and-thinking-about-them-like-an-economist Thanks Mark
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on basels-refined-capital-requirements Thanks Mark
• Lorenzo on the-founding-falsities-of-postcolonialism
• John Quiggin on the-rise-and-fall-of-keynesianism-after-the-gfc, ISQ-Keynesianism-and-Great-Recession-Symposium-1 (thanks Brad)
• Tyler Cowen on georgescu-roegen-vs-henry-george-vs-wakefield-vs-solow
• Antonio Fatas on the-narrative-of-high-debt-and-powerful Thanks Mark
• Dani Rodrik on defense-of-economic-populism Thanks Mark
• Macro Mania on lowflation-then-and-now
• Frithjop Arp on does-microfinance-really-alleviate-poverty-the-34-billion-dollar-question
• Richard Holden on bitcoin-the-property-market-and-trump-the-fact-and-fiction-behind-doomsaying-in-2018
• Uneasy Money on milton-friedman-and-the-phillips-curve
• Barry Eichengreen on world-unprepared-for-next-recession Thanks Mark
• Nick Rowe on the-inefficiency-of-perfect-price-discrimination

General

• Terry Slevin on explainer-how-does-sunscreen-work-what-is-spf-and-can-i-still-tan-with-it-on
• Bernard Wood and Peter Westaway on the-origin-of-us-what-we-know-so-far-about-where-we-humans-come-from
• Suzanne Mahady on if-you-dont-have-coeliac-disease-avoiding-gluten-isnt-healthy 
• Simon Chapman on drugs-gums-or-patches-wont-increase-your-chances-of-quitting
• Cailan Davenport on explainer-where-do-the-names-of-our-months-come-from
• Jacqui Adcock on what-are-antioxidants-and-are-they-truly-good-for-us
• Cameron Sumpter on why-neighbourhood-policing-critical-counter-terrorism
• Kaiser Fung on 2018-outlook-on-fake-news

Climate

• Arctic Sea Ice on piomas-january-2018
• and Then Theres Physics on reproducibility , no-were-not-slipping-into-a-proper-ice-age, can-contrarians-lose
• Cassandra's Legacy on the-impending-curtailment-of-conventional-oil
• John Quiggin on decarbonizing-the-economy-is-easy-and-cheap
• hotwhopper on the-latest-conspiracy-theory-from-wuwt
• Skeptical Science on evaluating_biases_in_sea_surface_temperature_records, the imminent ice age myth is back
• Moyhu on december-global-surface-temperature-unchanged, review-of-2017-heat-records-and-recent-warm-years
• The Conversable Economist on the-state-of-play-with-carbon-capture-and-storage
• Tamino on 2017-hottest-year-with-no-el-nino

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• however-noble-goal-research-findings-reported-accurately-distortion-results-often-occurs-not-data-presented-abstract-discussion-secondary-literature-p
• nudge-nudge-say-no
• benefits-limitations-randomized-controlled-trials-agree-deaton-cartwright
• alzheimers-mouse-research-orient-express
• incentive-to-cheat
• python-program-multivariate-missing-data-imputation-works-large-datasets
• why-are-these-explanations-so-popular
• retraction-paradox-retract-implicitly-defend-many-things-havent-yet-retracted
• solution-puzzle-scientists-typically-respond-legitimate-scientific-criticism-angry-defensive-closed-non-scientific-way
• Frances Coppolla on probability-for-geeks
• John Cook on six-blog-posts-on-the-mathematics-of-privacy , average-fraction-round-up
• Statschat on complete-balls
• flowing data on data-not-quite-what-it-seems

Genial Dave Giles

• Diffuseprior on undemocratic-democracies
• Marc Bellamare on the dogit model Thanks Mark
• No Hesitations on yield-curve-modelling

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• poverty-money-and-emotion
• Tyler Cowen on best-book-for-each-country , elephant-room-really-going-book
• Tim Harford on how-to-think-in-eight-easy-steps
• Cassandra Legacy on the-seneca-effect-book-review-by-jantje

Vox Wonk

• how-deal-climate-change-deniers-price-carbon
• wage-inequality-latin-america
• creativity-and-freedom
• value-precision-entrepreneurial-decisions
• guide-directed-search
• how-intergroup-contact-can-foster-nation-building
• minimum-wages-world-s-largest-labour-market
• three-canonical-responses-labour-saving-technical-change
• social-structure-and-conflict-sub-saharan-africa
• effectiveness-hiring-credits
• tight-monetary-policy-not-answer-weak-productivity-growth
• smoking-bans-good-us-good-our-kids
• gdp-at-risk
• immigration-era-automation
• careers-and-families-high-skilled-women-age-inequality

Minimum Wages

Two really interesting articles on Minimum Wages.

Firstly Ernest Dautovic, Harold Hau and Yi Huang examine China and the linkage between minimum wages and household spending. ( This is in Vox wonk in Around the Traps on Friday.)
Next courtesy of Brad De Long we have Doruk Cengiz et al examining the linkage between minimum wages and employment in the USA.


Sorry no spoilers. you have to read both.

The Ashes Result explained

As the meme goes the Pommies came to Australia for nothing ( 4-0 get it).
This result was easily predicable. I said as much as at AFTERGROG CRICKET  at some stage.
So let us now look at the whys and wherefores.

Bowling
I said at the start we would win easily because of our bowling and so we did. We had three fast bowlers all of whom were different who could both swing the ball ( new and old) and bowl good short balls. Lyons was always accurate at one end tying it up as well as taking wickets as well. The bowlers were rarely tired.
The Poms on the other hand were always going to struggle in Australia. Broad and Anderson were past their best and would find it hard on our pitches. Their back up bowlers were only fast medium seamers who are very useful  in England but not here on our hard pitches.
Ali was unfortunate to have a finger injury which hampered his bowling but again where he is very useful in England his flight and spin make him six material here and he lost confidence by the bucket loads as well.

Batting
Smith towered over everyone . He is very hard to get out on flat tracks unless you have a new ball, have EXTRA pace or you have a good legspinner. If even the Marshes get centuries against you you know you are bowling badly. The only time the ball swung big time ( in Adelaide) Anderson made us look poor. Warner too thrives on flat wickets and did again.
Given that neither Cook nor Root scored centuries when needed then it becomes easy to understand why the lost so heavily.
What I do not understand is why they were so vulnerable to the short ball. They knew it was coming yet most batsmen looked as they they had no idea of how to play a short ball. If you cannot play horizontal bat shots you avoid the ball by watching very carefully.

Captaincy and Luck
In simple terms a good captains always has good bowlers so Steve Smith was always going to going to have a better series than Root. root tried things , particularly in the first two tests some came off and some did not.
What some people will forget is the first two tests were much closer than they looked.
It is obvious Smith's confidence was too the forefront after the first two tests where as it was the opposite for root.
Luck almost always favours the winning team and so it was in the this series. not just dropped catches when they matter but snicks not going to hand. Ali is lucky in England when they win over there but not here!!

The Next Ashes
We will find it much harder in England. We still have a very good  bowling line up all at their peak but the poms will undoubtedly have 5 seaming pitches waiting for us. Our Batting is much more vulnerable than we realise. Neither Smith nor Warner have scored a ton in England on a seaming track only on flat tracks. Perhaps South Africa will show up portents of what is to come in England.
On the hand hand the Poms have to come up with a consistent batting lineup. Maybe put Malan at no.3 Bairstow no.5 Stokes at no.6 and Buttler at no.7. Ali at no.8 makes a reasonable batting lineup.

We will still be favourites and we have a young team.

Postscript
I have to say something about the commentators. Nein is still poor. Chappelli is now showing signs of age , nowhere near as bad as Trump but the signs are there. The rest are average. how come former test players do not know the difference between a ball that seams off the pitch and a ball that swings through the air. I do wish someone would tell Shane Warne to grow up.
The ABC was as bad. no-one can do ball to ball commentary now not even Jim Maxwell. Their analysts are good though. I missed Aggers from the BBC. . Alison did a reasonable job but just does not have the personality of Aggers.

Interesting that the poms are all very good. Graeme Swann, Vaughn, Boycs and even Athers are all top rate although Botham of all people is boring to a tee. How come they are so good and we are so bad??

How to deal with climate change deniers. Price carbon

Rick van der Pleog and Armon Rezai discus the future under a future where people who believe in climate change and those few whom do not and show how pricing carbon is the wisest course no matter what you believe!!

Imagine if Trump were competent and intelligent

Donald Trump is not very smart. My theory is that is has a lot to do with his age.He is losing his cognitive skills quickly. However as we have seen obviously he was no deal maker so it could well be he has always walked on the coat tails of more talented  underlings. ( His contribution to the Art of the Deal was most probably minimal.)
 We do know he knows how to market himself. Indeed IMHO his presidential bid was all about boosting the brand Donald Trump.

His term as President thus far has been one of chaos, incompetency and a mind that cannot understand basic issues.

Now imagine if Trump had a sharp mind and was competent. Matt Yglesias comes close to thinking the  unthinkable but goes a wee bit overboard.

Why so. Even though Trump is if not about destroying institutions certainly changing them they are well advanced in the US society. The Supreme Court will overrule him if he does things legally.
The FBI and Security agencies are doing their jobs despite the immense pressure being put on them by Trump.
Also important here is that the USA has had democracy for some time. Trump only has support with people who simply will not change their votes. He is distinctly unpopular.

An intelligent and competent Trump would be in a far superior position to do things but of course if he were so he would change quite a few policies!!

You want proof that Trump is stupid. Only a moron would sat a cold snap in Northern America means Climate change is not occurring. He is confusing climate and weather.

He says he has reduced the national debt.Obama did this 6 times. It is a seasonal thing.

Around the Traps 5/1/18

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on whos-doing-best-in-rent-seeking-business
• Kevin Bonham on 2017-ehrlich-awards-for-wrong-predictions
• David Blowers on a-high-price-for-policy-failure-the-ten-year-story-of-spiralling-electricity-bills
• The Kouk on 2017-twas-a-very-good-year
• Croaking Cassandra on a-bauble-for-underperformance , oia-obstructionism-yet-more-evidence-for-rb-reform
• John Quiggin on the-predictable-and-predicted-failure-of-electricity-market-reform

Northern America

• Brian Resnick on climate-change-cold-arctic-snap-us-canada-jet-stream
• Daniel Flitton on best-interpreter-2017-donald-trump
• Greg Laden on america-ruined-election-system-fix
• Calculated Risk on question-1-for-2018-how-much-will-the-economy-grow-in-2018 Has links to the other 9 questions
• 538 on sexual-assault-victims
• Kruggers on can-the-economy-keep-calm-and-carry-on Thanks Mark
• Narayana Kocherlakota on the-millennium-is-off-to-a-bad-economic-start Thanks Mark 
• Economic Principals on looking back looking forward Thanks Mark
• Andrew Prokop on trump-michael-wolff-book-steve-bannon, michael-wolff-trump-book
• Mike Kimel on changes-in-healthcare-costs
• Galen Druke on even-a-gerrymandering-ban-cant-keep-politicians-from-trying-to-shape-their-districts
• Jacob Hacker on road-medicare-everyone Thanks Mark

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on conservatives-austerity
• Mainly Macro on leave-and-left-behind
• Core Economics on boehmermann-vs-erdogan-an-update

Asia

• Mike Kimel on protests-in-iran
• Bruno Macaes on how-china-bungled-its-coming-out-party Thanks Tyler Cowen
• Daniel Flitton on best-interpreter-2017-china-influence , best-interpreter-2017-north-korea , best-interpreter-2017-rohingya-crisis
• Evan Osnos on making-china-great-again
• Barkley Rosser on does-iran-have-poland-problem
• Josepha Wessels on protests-in-iran-could-spell-trouble-for-the-middle-east-at-large
• Simon Johnson on china-innovation-dragon Thanks Mark

Wonk

• Kruggers on the-gamblers-ruin-of-small-cities-wonkish Thanks Mark
• Brad De Long on should-read-wtf-real-economic-outcomes-are-_not_-invariant-to-the-monetary-policy-rule-a-gold-standard-a-silver-stan
• John  Kandrac and Bernd Schulsche on quantitative easing and bank risk taking Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on monopolies-may-be-worse-for-workers-than-for-consumers Thanks Mark
• The conversable economist on the-role-of-academia-in-tumultuous-times , adam-smith-on-conversable-spirit , if-youre-not-paying-for-it-youre-product , what-economists-need-from-their-readers
• A Stochastic Trend on the-impact-of-electricity-on-economic-development Thanks Mark
• Frances Coppolla on the-terrible-folly-of-austerity
• Tim Harford on help-with-your-new-years-resolutions-is-at-hand
• Macromania on fedcoin-and-blockchain
• Wired on why-symmetry-continues-to-beguile-mathematicians Thanks Mark
• Promarket on inequality-imperialism-first-world-war Thanks Mark
• Macroeconomic insights on infrastructure-investment-regulation-evidence-us-electricity-distribution-sector Thanks Mark
• Paul Romer on clear-and-precise-scientific-communication Thanks Mark
• Bradford De Long on low-inflation-no-surprise
• Richard Shiller on economics-and-human-instinct-storytelling Thanks Mark
• Melissa Wheeler and Victor Sojo on bias-creeps-into-reference-checks-so-is-it-time-to-ditch-them
• Mainly Macro on minimum-wages-monopsony-and-towns
• stumbling and mumbling on how-inequality-persists
• James Hamilton on negative-interest-rates

General

• Understanding Society on is-history-probabilistic
• Caillan Davenport on who-was-janus-the-roman-god-of-beginnings-and-endings
• Margaret Clunies Ross on explainer-the-gods-behind-the-days-of-the-week
• Michelle Smith on from-sleeping-beauty-to-the-frog-prince-why-we-shouldnt-ban-fairytales

Climate

• science of doom on clouds-and-water-vapor-part-eleven-ceppi-et-al-zelinka-et-al
• John Quiggin on some-good-news-on-the-global-climate , why-extremely-unlikely-climate-events-matter
• Tyler Cowen on effective-solar-power-away-thought
• Peter Sinclair on in-climate-up-the-down-escalator
• Moyhu on december-ncepncar-global-anomaly-up-0,075C
• and Then Theres Physics on being-wicked

Andrew Gelman (mainly but not only stats)

• turn-scatterplots-elegant-apparel-accessories
• learning-responding-statistical-criticism
• canadian-tax-dollars-work
• research-progress-past-year
• econometrics-readng-for-new-year
• im-errol-flypaper-photography-science-storytelling
• now-andy-hear-one
• stopping-rules-bayesian-analysis-2
• politically-extreme-yet-vital-nation
• intelligence-always-artificial-least-artefactual
• probabilistic-computation-differ-physics-statistics
• robo-lobbyists
• computer-run-last-1000-2000-hours-didnt-really-trust-program-ran-long-ran-twice-verified-results-matched-im-not-sure-ever-pre
• John Cook on making-sense-of-a-probability-problem-in-the-wsj
• statschat on consider-a-spherical-cow
• xian on correlation-for-maximal-coupling

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• interpolating-statistical-tables
• Marc Bellamare on happy blog anniversary
• Econometric Sense on hark-flawed-studies-in-nutrition-call-for-credibility-revolution

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• most-popular-posts-of-2017
• a-look-ahead-to-2018-economics-books
• epidemics-vs-information-cascades
• Kate Burridge on 13-ye-olde-phrases-that-would-be-far-better-in-the-workplace

Vox Wonk

• sources-export-success
• rate-return-on-everything
• geopolitics-international-currency-choice
• gender-unemployment-gap
• clustering-does-not-make-firms-more-resilient
• how-merchant-guilds-became-obsolete
• household-inequality-and-consumption-response-shocks