Around the Traps 28/4/17

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Heather Merle Benbow on east-timor-war-coffee-and-australias-debt-of-honour
• Phil Lewis on the-real-reason-scott-morrison-is-playing-down-the-budget
• Andrew Hopkins on want-to-boost-the-domestic-gas-industry-put-a-price-on-carbon
• Croaking Cassandra on whichever-is-less , immigration-thoughts-over-40-years , questionable-herald-analysis , work-visas-outstanding-a-simple-chart , which-countries-did-essential-skills-visa-grantees-come-from-in-the-last-year , when-australias-unemployment-drops-more-people-will-go-there-again
• Carolyn Holbrook on how-anzac-day-came-to-occupy-a-sacred-place-in-australians-hearts
• Jock Collins on 457-visa-changes-wont-impact-on-wider-temporary-education-workforce-and-maybe-thats-deliberate
• Sally Baker and Rachel Burke on english-language-bar-for-citizenship-likely-to-further-disadvantage-refugees
• Bev Tayal on five-things-the-east-coast-can-learn-from-wa-about-energy
• Roman Lanis et al on chevron-is-just-the-start-modelling-shows-how-many-billions-in-revenue-the-government-is-missing-out-on
• Lee Smales on explainer-what-is-reflation-and-is-australia-experiencing-it
• Nick Gruen on upmarket-agitprop-clive-james-on-john-howard-on-bob-menzies
• Antony Green on the-urge-to-merge-family-first-and-the-australian-conservatives
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup
• Greg Jericho on rental-affordability-at-crisis-point-for-low-income-families
• John Quiggin on renationalise-energy
• Elizabeth Savage on the-multi-billion-dollar-subsidy-for-private-health-insurance-isnt-worth-it
• The kouk on inflation-is-low-and-remains-low
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-what-will-end-up-in-scott-morrisons-good-books
• Michelle Grattan on turnbulls-pipe-dreams-channel-ghost-of-rex-connor

Northern America

• Frances Woolley on statistics-canadas-historical-data-on-housing-prices-is-probably-wrong
• Robert Waldmann on waldmann-vs-waldman-finally
• Economic principals on where credit is due Thanks Mark
• Regulatory Review on grab-trumps-alternative-economics-climate-change Thanks Mark
• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on zombies-of-voodoo-economics
• Timothy Taylor on seeking-consensus-on-effects-of-prekindergarten-programs , digital-forces-and-other-70-of-us-economy
• Mathew Yglesias on respect-trump-voters-truth Thanks Brad
• Noah Smith on cracking-the-mystery-of-labor-s-falling-share-of-gdp , minimum-wage-warriors-see-certainty-in-ambiguity
• Brad De Long on a-low-pressure-economy-is-not-only-dark-but-invisible-in-the-horserace-noah-smith-is-running
• Promarket on wells-fargo-failure-boards-regulators Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-how-to-re-negotiate-nafta
• Dylan Scott on trump-obamacare-cost-sharing-subsidies-costs
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-march-new-home-sales , real-house-prices-and-price-to-rent-ratio-in-February
• Sandwichman on gibberish
• CBPP on corporate-rate-cuts-are-a-poor-way-to-help-the-economy-and-most-workers-and-could-hurt-them , actual-us-corporate-tax-rates-are-in-line-with-comparable-countries  Thanks Mark
• Isabel Sawhill on inclusive-growth-requires-maintenance-of-full-employment Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on econometrically-assessing-the-presidents-tax-plan , i-am-the-king-of-debt-i-do-love-debt-i-love-debt
• Arindrajit Dube on minimum-wages-and-the-distribution-of-family-incomes-in-the-us Thanks Mark
• Promarket on unambiguous-evidence-concentration-rise-widespread-industries
• run75441 0n congressional-republicans-looking-out-for-your-health-healthcare-insurance-and-theirs-too
• Tim Duy on yes-the-stock-and-bond-markets-can-both-be-right
• Todd Landmann on donald-trumps-100-days-of-u-turns-bombs-and-cake
• Sam Roggeveen on 100-days-of-trump
• Larry Summers on larry-summers-trump-is-undermining-his-own-treasury-secretary Thanks Mark
• James Hamilton on economy-off-to-a-slow-start-for-2017
• 538 on what-trump-has-done

Europe

• Fruits and Votes on france-what-to-expect-for-the-assembly
• Paul Smith on macron-and-le-pen-to-face-off-for-french-presidency-but-she-wont-be-pleased-with-first-round-result
• stumbling and mumbling on bank-holidays-productivity , beyond-redistributive-tax
• Nate Silver on le-pen-is-in-a-much-deeper-hole-than-trump-ever-was
• elections etc on seats-projections-from-gb-and-scottish-polls-combined Thanks Jim
• Mabel Berezin on surprise-round-one-of-the-french-presidential-election-went-pretty-much-as-expected
• Mainly Macro on economic-competence-revisited , one-vote-to-bring-them-all-and-in-in-the-darkness-bind-them
• Coppolla Comment on the-libor-witch-hunt
• The Piping Shrike on the-fracturing-an-update
• Mathew Del Santo on french-election-swansong-liberal-globalism
• Natalie Doyle on macron-and-le-pen-battle-voter-disdain-as-they-square-off-for-french-presidency
• The constitution unit on how-would-emmanuel-macron-govern-without-a-parliamentary-majority Thanks Jim Rose
• Junkcharts on reorientation-in-the-french-election
• Croaking Cassandra on france-and-some-near-neighbours
• Barkley Rosser on poland-what-are-these-people-complaining-about

Asia

• Euan Graham on three-questions-about-north-korea
• Cindy Vestergaard on what-are-north-korea-s-chemical-weapon-capabilities
• Mathew Busch on what-jakarta-election-tells-us-about-2019-presidential-race
• Abhijit Singh on india-remains-cautious-about-quad
• Sam Roggeveeen on china-launches-its-second-aircraft-carrier
• David Kelly and Joost Van Deutekom on will-chairman-turn-china-contemplates-its-north-korea-policy
• Frances Kitt on north-korea-most-enterprising-country

Wonk

• FRBSF on monetary-policy-medicine-using-quasi-random-experiments Thanks Brad
• Long and Variable on ftalphaville-and-optimal-currency-areas
• Understanding Society on new-understandings-of-populism , complexity-and-contingency , perspectives-on-transportation-history Thanks Mark
• Skepticlawyer on why-there-is-so-much-nonsense-spouted-about-fascism
• Douglas Campbell on how-bad-is-peer-review Thanks Mark
• Brad De Long on what-can-be-done-to-improve-the-episteme-of-economics , weekend-reading-wolfgang-streeck-trump-and-the-trumpists
• Joseph Camilleri on the-us-russia-and-china-a-twisted-tale-of-personal-ego-profound-mistrust-and-foolish-nationalism
• Justin Fox on ok-maybe-globalization-isn-t-dead Thanks Mark
• Joseph Gagnon on we-know-what-causes-trade-deficits Thanks Mark
• Lord Keynes on posts-on-19th-century-economic-history , bibliography-of-nicholas-kaldors-work
• Eric Lonergan on why-do-asset-prices-move
• A fine theorem on a-john-bates-clark-prize-for-economic-history Thanks Mark
• Timothy Taylor on the-global-systemically-important-banks-an-update , demand-and-frac-sand-example
• Brad Setser on using-fiscal-policy-to-drive-trade-rebalancing-turns-out-to-be-hard Thanks Mark
• stumbling and mumbling on the-demand-for-bastards
• David Glasner on rules-vs-discretion-historically-contemplated
• Nick Gruen on doughnut-economics-the-hole-is-greater-than-the-sum-of-its-parts

General

• Gunveen Taur on science-or-snake-oil-can-turmeric-really-shrink-tumours-reduce-pain-and-kill-bacteria
• Cassandra's legacy on evil-leaders-what-makes-their-brain-work
• Evan on SkS_Analogy_02_Ferrari_without_gas

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on red-team-vs-blue-team , the-war-on-science-not
• Robert Stavins on why-the-u-s-should-remain-in-the-paris-climate-agreement Thanks Mark
• Variable variability on hiatus-signal-and-variability
• Moyhu on gwpf-international-temperature-data
• Scientific American on we-just-breached-the-410-ppm-threshold-for-co2 Thanks Mark
• Stochastic trend on how-accurate-are-projections-of-energy-intensity Thanks Mark
• Tamino on cancelling-the-new-york-times-because-truth-is-now-more-important-than-ever
• Real Climate on snow-water-ice-and-water-and-adaptive-actions-for-a-changing-arctic
• John Abraham on global-warming-keeps-on-keeping-on

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• prefer-three-n300-studies-one-n900-study
• meta-hype-algorithm
• stan-without-frontiers-bayes-without-tears
• The-next-Lancet-retraction
• using-prior-knowledge-frequentist-tests
• data-sleaze-uber-beyond
• whole-fleet-wansinks-architecture-design-trillion-dollar-industry-founded-pseudoscience
• prior-choice-recommendations-wiki
• Mike Lee and Benedict King on bayes-theorem-the-maths-tool-we-probably-use-every-day-but-what-is-it
• Dr Nic on graphs-beauty-and-truth
• Kaiser Fung on dispute-over-analysis-of-school-quality-and-home-prices-shows-social-science-is-hard , data-sleaze-uber-and-beyond

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• nuttin as yet

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• basic-income-in-a-just-society
• how-do-the-french-think
• contradictions-of-capital
• books-books-books
• Euan Ritchie on bigfoot-the-kraken-and-night-parrots-searching-for-the-mythical-or-mysterious
• Tim Harford on undercover-friday-9
• Branko Milanovic on a-theory-of-rise-and-fall-of-economic-leadership
• Doverbeach on daily-reading-15 , daily-reading-16 , daily-reading-18 , weekend-reading-38

Vox wonk

• operation-and-demise-bretton-woods-system
• child-height-and-living-standards-indian-migrants-england
• asset-management-company-eurozone
• persistent-headache-sluggish-investment
• natural-disasters-and-supply-chain-disruptions-mitigating-propagation-negative-shocks
• interconnectedness-between-eu-banks-and-shadow-banking-entities
• brexit-and-uk-higher-education
• democracy-and-meritocracy
• theory-and-evidence-last-two-decades-tariff-reductions
• accommodate-or-not-federal-reserve-s-new-normal
• exchange-rate-prediction-redux
• drivers-post-crisis-slump-eurozone-and-us
• heterogeneous-impact-free-trade-agreements
• global-value-chains-and-increasingly-global-nature-inflation
• new-ebook-dsge-models-conduct-policy-use-intended

Yassim Abdel Magied

I do not know much about this woman apart from her totally absurd statement that Islam is the most feminist of religions. I guess that is why women are immigrating on mass to Saudia Arabia!!

On Anzac day she put out a twitter message that said lest we forget. Nauru, Mannus Syria, Palestine.

Two things occurred
The very people who want section 18c from the Human Rights legislation deleted from law started to say her utterances were a disgrace. Please note no-one I have read have said why they were a disgrace. We should note the utter hypocrisy of these people who are the usual suspects.

The other thing was these people wanted the young lady sacked from various jobs she had including one being a part-time presenter person who works occasionally on contract and on a casual basis at the ABC.  Given she was not commenting on behalf of the ABC nor did she do so when on the air the only thing that would occur if the ABC did the baying pack's wishes is to lose badly an unfair dismissal case.

Let us just go back and examine what she said. She made the comment on Twitter thus she did not elaborate on what she meant.. I do not get why Syria or Palestine is linked with Nauru or Mannus.

I have known quite a few diggers in my time , all unfortunately all dead, and they all would have been mortified if you told them they were fighting to ensure people who were fleeing persecution or even their own life were to be put in gaol in another country instead of allowing them to live peacefully here.

How ironic a silly muslim woman would seen to understand more about the anzac spirit than those who keep on saying how patriotic they are!

Can't disagree with Richard Ackland

How did Trump win?

Andrew Gelman had an interesting article on how Trump won the Republican nomination.

I remember telling my youngest son Trump was only winning early because of the number of candidates. Once people dropped out the more favoured candidates would pass him in support.

This did not occur for two reasons.

1. Trump had big MO. We should never discount it
2. The favoured candidates were not all that good whether it was Bush, Rubio or Cruz

I should add Andrew last comment.

" There were three surprises regarding Trump in the election:

1. Trump was the most popular Republican candidate in the early part of the primary election campaign.

2. Republican primary voters did not coalesce around an alternative candidate.

3. Trump maintained the support of nearly all Republicans during the general election campaign.

I agree with you that Trump’s particular policy positions, and also his willingness not to disavow racists and conspiracy theorists, is an important part of the explanation to item 1.

Item 3 is not a surprise given partisan polarization and the clearly different policies and attitudes offered by Democratic and Republican candidates.

Banks’s story above addresses item 2, which is how the Republican party ended up choosing a candidate who was so unpopular.

P.S. I do not think Bush ran on the platform that he likes Mexicans more than Americans."

His win in the election can be put down to Comey's extraordinary intervention when he said the FBI was investigating more Clinton e-mails ( but failed to mention investigation of Trump team Russian ties.) both Sam Wang and Nate Silver agree on this.

Before this Clinton was comfortably ahead in the  polls. After this it was much tighter. I should add ex-ante Clinton was thought to have a huge advantage on the ground. Ex-post we found out this was not the case. The fact Clinton's advisors ignored or even treated with contempt Bill Clinton's thoughts also would have raised alarm bells. The man was not only one of the best US Presidents but was a master politician.

France votes in the first round

We know know the two candidates for the second round of voting for the French President are Macron and Le Pen.
For the first time ever the two major parties the Socialists and the Republicans are not represented in the second round.
Macron would seem to be the favourite. all the other candidates told their followers to vote for him not Le Pen.
He also had the most sensible policy plan. He is liberal in economics which is a good thing but also in social policy. We do not know who would serve in his cabinet indeed we have no idea of how parliamentary elections will go in June. What usually occurs is that the French ensure the newly elected President has the votes in Parliament. However Macron has no political party to speak of to get this. Perhaps Obama like he hopes to get bi-partisan support for most of his measures. I do not know as I do not follow French politics that closely.  Thanks to Jim Rose here is Fruits and Votes on this very matter.

Le Pen is merely another dirigiste right wing populist. Like Trump is some always in silly policies however unlike Trump her policies do not appear to favour big business over consumers. She is bipartisan like most right wing populists, She likes to bash both. Shes does it directly on big business and indirectly on consumers.

Interesting times.

See Paul Smith's analysis, Also Nate Silver. Lets add Mabel Berezin as well

I have been chastised for not commenting on Hollande's performance. It might have been different if he actually implemented some policies he advocated during the last election.  Mind you a person who thinks says law is the answer obviously does understand the question in the first place. 'terrorist' incidents murdering people  merely exacerbated his inept performance overall.

Songs that are better in the studio than live ( and vica versa)

Hello dear lonely and only reader.

I thought I might over the next Sundays look at where songs are better in the studio than done live and vica versa.

The first example is Billy Joel's Travelling Prayer.
In the studio the combination of Joel's piano playing is wonderful and we also get violins and banjo playing. It is sublime.

I had my doubts on how good it would be live and I was proved right.
Here is the studio version

Here is a live version

Nick Gruen ( the nicest man in the Blogosphere) may disagree

I should have added too many live versions from many artists are far too quick

Around the Traps 21/4/17

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on disadvantaged-should-rate-higher-than-the-rich-and-powerful
• Croaking Cassandra on cosmetics-can-matter-labours-monetary-policy-proposals , svensson-and-labours-monetary-policy , a-modest-step-that-ignores-the-big-picture , further-thoughts-on-the-immigration-policy-changes , immigration-data , what-to-make-of-the-cpi , reducing-non-citizen-immigration-by-tens-of-thousands
• Rae Duffy-Jones on when-it-comes-to-housing-affordability-debates-everything-old-is-new-again
• Peter Whiteford on budget-explainer-has-there-been-a-blowout-in-social-security-and-welfare-spending
• Helen Dickinson on ndis-hiccups-are-expected-as-with-any-large-scale-social-reform
• Greg Jericho on malcolm-turnbulls-myth-of-middle-australia-ignores-both-gender-and-reality , the-incredible-shrinking-malcolm-gets-even-smaller-spouting-australian-values
• The Piping Shrike on no-resurrection
• The Kouk on the-australian-budget-is-likely-to-confirm-this-is-a-big-spending-big-taxing-government
• Henry Sherrell on 457-visas-all-australia-had-do-was-hold-line
• Phillip Branch on heres-what-australias-cellular-network-scene-could-look-like-by-2020
• Emma Power on for-renters-making-housing-more-affordable-is-just-the-start
• Ross Guest on budget-explainer-if-you-want-to-know-about-the-economy-look-past-the-budget-forecasts
• Katrina Raynor on vested-interests-behind-city-shapers-often-subvert-higher-density-policies
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-where-are-all-the-jobs
• Kevin Bonham on wonk-central-why-we-dont-use-hare-quota

Northern America

• Livio De Matteo on a-very-brief-history-of-federal-cash-transfers-canada-1867-to-2017
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed watch fed-looking-forward-to-the-second-quarter , autos-drag-down-industrial-production-housing-solid 
• Narayana Kocherlakota on trump-shouldn-t-appoint-clones-to-the-fed Thanks Mark
• FRBSF on monetary-policy-medicine-using-quasi-random-experiments Thanks Mark
• Ezra Klein on gop-problem-on-health-reform Thanks Brad
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-march-housing-starts , a-few-comments-on-march-existing-home-sales
• Timothy Taylor on characteristics-of-us-minimum-wage-workers , personnel-is-policy-presidential-appointments , dont-fear-mccormick-reaper
• Liberty Street on why-renegotiating-nafta-could-disrupt-supply-chains Thanks Mark
• Pro-market on worried-about-concentration-then-worry-about-rent-seeking Thanks Mark
• Jared Bernstein on supply-side-trickle-down-nonsense-on-the-nyt-oped-page Thanks Mark
• Macroblog on feds-inflation-goal-what-does-public-know Thanks Mark
• Macromania on the-st-louis-feds-macroeconomic-outlook
• Nate Silver on trump-probably-wont-defy-midterm-gravity
• Noah Smith on america-needs-more-foreign-investment
• Menzie Chinn on doug-irwin-on-the-false-promise-of-protectionism
• John Cassiday on the-real-trump-agenda-helping-big-business  Thanks Mark
• Douglas Irwin on false-promise-protectionism Thanks Mark

Europe

• Alpasian Ozerdem and Bahar Baser on erdogan-declares-victory-in-his-pursuit-of-one-man-rule
• Lauren Williams on turkeys-democracy-was-already-dead
• Notes on Liberty on the-gdp-real-wages-and-working-hours-of-france-since-the-13th-century Thanks Mark
• Barkely Rosser on turkey-and-trend-to-authoritarianism
• Richard Murphy on gloomy-economic-outlook-is-why-theresa-may-was-forced-to-call-a-snap-election
• Tim Bale on snap-election-a-win-win-for-theresa-may-shell-crush-labour-and-make-brexit-a-little-easier
• Nate Silver on the-u-k-snap-election-is-riskier-than-it-seems
• Derry Hogue on mays-snap-poll-what-could-possibly-go-wrong
• Simon Heffer on may-s-mandate-could-make-difference-eu-talks
• Thomas Piketty on inequality-in-france Thanks Mark
• Fergal McCann on the-income-distribution-and-the-irish-mortgage-market
• Emma Kate-Symons on conservatives-need-get-over-their-le-pen-crush
• Mainly Macro on ge2017-why-economic-facts-will-be-ignored-once-again , breaking-strong-economy-narrative
• FRBSF on brexit-whither-the-pound Thanks Mark
• stumbling and mumbling on not-enough-money
• Harry Enten on the-french-election-is-way-too-close-to-call

Asia

• Roger Shanahan on syria-losing-lives-and-land
• Dina Esfandiary on iranian-elections-uneasy-victory-rouhani
• Mike Callaghan on japan-reverses-course-tpp
• Liberty Street on is-chinese-growth-overstated Thanks Mark
• FNU Testriono on will-jakartas-new-governor-stand-firm-against-hardline-religious-groups
• Banjamin Habib on trump-and-north-korea-military-action-will-be-a-disaster-so-a-more-patient-thoughtful-solution-is-required
• Hugh White on trump-not-serious-about-dealing-north-korea
• Erin Cook on jakarta-election-result-spells-trouble-jokowi-and-indonesia
• Stephen Blank on despite-encroachments-china-still-russia-s-preferred-partner

Wonk

• stumbling and mumbling on against-marginal-product , neither-inequality-nor-poverty
• Carola Binder on econtalk-on-economics-of-pope-francis
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on revisiting-market-liquidity-the-case-of-us-corporate-bonds Thanks Mark
• Promarket on less-interested-truth-capture-thrives Thanks Mark 
• David Warsh on golden arches, silver towers Thanks 
• Mainly Macro on inequality-or-poverty
• Dani Rodrik on trade-redistribution-and-social-dumping Thanks Mark
• Bank Underground on the-impact-of-brexit-related-shocks-on-global-asset-prices Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on most-workers-have-held-off-the-machines-so-far Thanks Mark

General

• Frances Woolley on should-professors-tell-students-exactly-what-they-expect
• John Quiggin on the-poverty-of-psychology-again
• Carolyn Ee on science-or-snake-oil-do-meds-like-remifemin-ease-hot-flushes-and-night-sweats-in-menopausal-women
• Matteo Vergani on alarming-truth-about-countering-violent-extremism-programs-we-dont-know-what-works
• Peter Ellerton on facts-are-not-always-more-important-than-opinions-heres-why
• Allen Cooper  et al on how-english-style-drizzle-killed-the-ice-ages-giants

Climate

• Hotwhopper on blogs-are-better-delusions-of-grandeur
• dana1981 on humans-on-verge-causing-fastest-climate-change-50m-yrs
• Kevin Trenberth on sound-climate-science-even-projecting-future
• and Then Theres Physics on reconciling-ecs-estimates-again
• Real Climate on judy-currys-attribution-non-argument
• Eelco Rohling on we-need-to-get-rid-of-carbon-in-the-atmosphere-not-just-reduce-emissions
• Timothy Haab and John Whitehead on What-do-Environmental-and-Resource-Economists-think Thanks Mark
• Critical Angle on march-2017-global-temperature-update

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• sad-sad-co-dependent-suckers
• Is research sound
• hierarchical-glm-like-driving-car
• donald-trumps-nomination-unintended-consequence-citizens-united
• reputational-incentives-post-publication-review-two-partial-solutions-misinformation-problem
• my-proposal-for-jasa
• representists-versus-propertyists-rabbitducks-good
• teaching-statistics-bag-tricks-second-edition
• journals-of-insignificant-results
• drug-funded-profs-push-drugs
• William Briggs on why decision analysis isn't straightforward
• Aren Raviv on understanding-false-discovery-rate
• Mayo on neyman-distinguishing-tests-of-statistical-hypotheses-and-tests-of-significance-might-have-been-a-lapse-of-someones-pen-3

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• No Hesitations on time-series-forecasts-and-forecasts

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-french-and-their-money
• economics-and-its-soul
• the-dialectic-of-fraud
• Doverbeach on daily-reading-12, daily-reading-13 , daily-reading-14, weekend-reading-37
• Emma Beckett and Quan Vuong on what-science-says-about-getting-the-most-out-of-your-tea
• Mary Barrett on five-tips-to-get-the-most-out-of-your-workday
• Kruggers on books/review/this-fight-is-our-fight-elizabeth-warren

Vox wonk

• new-bargaining-perspective-sovereign-debt-restructuring
• inter-ethnic-marriages-italy
• brexit-new-industrial-strategy-and-rules-state-aid
• impact-immigration-barriers-native-workers
• ricardo-and-comparative-advantage-200
• shadow-borrowing-through-uk-s-defined-benefit-pension-system
• basel-process-good-intentions-and-unintended-consequences
• /basel-process-good-intentions-and-unintended-consequences
• eligibility-easing-and-lender-last-resort
• education-and-inequality-mid-20th-century-united-states
• impact-ad-blockers-internet

Changes to 457 work visas

The Government changed the 457 work visa yesterday.
First of all a reaction from some academics HERE.

Then Henry Sherrell writes on it courtesy of the ever excellent Lowy Institute.

This change in policy is truly Trumpian. It is completely devoid of evidence. It is supported by a unity ticket of the CFMEU and One Nation for pete's sake!

Think about it. Why in the hell would an employer not seek to fill a vacancy within the city they are in rather then go through all the work of trying to get skilled personnel from overseas.

Unbelievable!

It is yet another sign the government has no idea of what to do and is attempting anything at all to get back on the 'playing field'

North Korea What is Happening

Before starting this I should emphasise  people on Seoul appear unperturbed about recent events.

They are used to North Korea using bellicose statements and making threats. Perhaps the USA now doing the same is simply a similar circumstance.
Just remember they are highly vulnerable to an ordinary artillery barrage or missile strike. Thousands would die!

My problem and my fear is now we have not one highly inexperienced and ignorant leader of a Country making threats. We were used to that with North Korea, We now have two of a similar ilk.

The fear emanates in two ways.
Firstly what occurs if you continually ratchet up the rhetoric. At some stage you have to match action with word.
Secondly when the air is filled with bellicose statements a mistake by an underling becomes more likely that could prove fatal.

In the past we could rest assured that even though children occupied the seats of power in North Korea at least responsible adults were in charge in the USA. Not any more.

Perhaps I should have added the one the great many faults of Trump is that he disregards policy he his disagrees with on intelligence and foreign policy issues even when there is NO evidence for it. Witness his EO on stopping refugees. moreover he doesn't learn from mistakes because he doesn't make any!
This is why this time it is different!

Do we have any idea of how to counter violent extremism? No!

Matteo Vergani at the ever excellent Lowy Institute writes a great article on alarming-truth-about-countering-violent-extremism-programs-we-dont-know-what-works.
This is a huge problem because in Australia as in many other countries like the USA the problem of terrorism is because of home grown terrorists. They do not come to the country as terrorists!

The Labour market and economics

Two really interesting articles on the labour market and the theories of economics that surrounds it.

First we have Noah Opinion ( Noah Smith) on why-101-model-doesnt-work-for-labor-markets
Second we have stumbling and mumbling ( Chris Dillow) on against-marginal-product.

Both very  informative and cutting to the economic bone. Yes I am slightly changing my views on the labour market.

The Resurrection is central to Christianity

The physical resurrection of Jesus is all important to Christianity. If it did not occur then Christianity is shite.
A physical resurrection means Jesus is God and man. As Thomas the apostle said when viewing the hole in his hand. My Lord and My God.

We know Jesus rose from the dead on the third day because he was seen by a lot of witnesses. The Jewish religious leaders could not dispute this at all.

We also know because his apostles were changed men willing to die for him after this occurred. They did not hide as before and were not silent as before.
This is why Christianity spread.

On a side-issue Sinclair Davidson attempts to be too clever by half.

Sunday is the 1st day of the week not the 0th day. Saturday is the 7th day of the week not the 6th as Davidson attests!
Thursday is the 1st day of a cricket test in Australia not the 0th day. It last 5 days not 4 days!
Sometime when you try and be too clever you end up being very stupid.

Around the Traps 14/4/17 Easter Friday Edition

It is time for Around the Traps again.
It is Easter so plenty of updating over the long weekend.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on grant-robertson-made-my-day
• Rodney Maddock on three-charts-on-mortgage-stress-it-isnt-as-bad-as-you-might-think
• Robert Phiddian on farewell-john-clarke-in-an-absurd-world-we-have-never-needed-you-more
• Ross Gittins on too-many-stuff-ups-about-to-put-economic-reform-in-reverse, the-local-school-is-in-decline-reducing-social-cohesion, how-our-penchant-for-magic-numbers-gets-us-into-trouble
• David Glance on three-charts-on-australias-growing-appetite-for-fast-broadband
• Graham White on explainer-how-wage-growth-contributes-to-the-economy
• Croaking Cassandra on possible-reserve-bank-reforms-some-reactions , slashing-immigration-really-is-quite-easy , still-going-nowhere-the-governments-exports-target
• Matthew Thomas on Work_for_the_Dole_program_to_stay
• The Kouk on was-that-the-sound-of-the-economy-hitting-a-brick-wall , -got-a-massive-mortgage-rest-easy-for-now-you-could-get-a-rate-cut , the-jobs-data-remain-glum
• Greg Jericho on scott-morrison-makes-case-for-negative-gearing-change-despite-ruling-it-out , the-latest-tax-data-proves-it-negative-gearing-benefits-the-rich-the-most
• Gary Bouma on how-religion-rises-and-falls-in-modern-australia
• Nick Gruen on making-the-reserve-bank-peoples-bank

Northern America

• Jacob Hacker on an-american-sickness Thanks Mark
• Larry Summers on the-us-must-work-on-its-economic-relationship-with-china Thanks Mark
• David Alpher on why-cant-america-just-take-out-assad
• David Beckworth on a-challenge-to-feds-normalization-plans
• new deal democrat on march-jobs-report-participation-up-unemployment-down-wage-growth-miserly , prime-working-age-employment-up-participation-up-finally-now-how-about-wages
• Barkely Rosser on which-is-more-important-china-or-syria
• Timothy Taylor on us-health-care-costs-same-items-compared-with-other-countries , us-polling-on-attitudes-toward-trade
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on  fed-watch-solid-employment-report
• Liberty street on financial-crises-and-the-desirability-of-macroprudential-policy Thanks Mark
• Nouriel Roubini on trump-republicans-tax-reform-failure Thanks Mark
• Ben Bernanke on how-big-a-problem-is-the-zero-lower-bound-on-interest-rates , the-zero-lower-bound-on-interest-rates-how-should-the-fed-respond Thanks Mark
• Justin Fox on the-de-electrification-of-the-u-s-economy Thanks Mark
• Robert Waldmann on to-me-the-common-assertion-about-health-care-reform-reform-and-tax-reform-makes-no-sense
• CBPP on tax-cuts-for-the-rich-arent-an-economic-panacea-and-could-hurt-growth Thanks Mark
• Calculated Risk on key-measures-show-inflation-close-to-2%-in-March
• Josh Marshall on trump-the-problem-of-militant-ignorance Thanks Brad
• Macromania on sectoral-and-occupational-trends-in-us-labour-market

Europe

• Anne-Marie Balbi on sweden-unites-wake-terror-attack
• Mainly Macro on the-brexit-depreciation-and-exports
• coppolla comment on libor-and-bank
• Kruggers on europe-has-problems-but-le-pen-is-not-the-answer, the-french-ourselves
• long and variable on a-national-minimum-wage-probably-should-be-set-to-reduce-employment
• stumbling and mumbling on the-edge-of-competency
• Banque de France on brexit+negotiations+hawks+doves+and+chickens Thanks Mark
• Daniel Nichanian on what-you-need-to-know-about-frances-far-right

Asia

• Brad Setser on so-is-china-pegging-to-the-dollar-or-to-a-basket , when-did-china-manipulate-its-currency Thanks Mark
• Lydia Khalil on egypt-s-copts-caught-between-egyptian-state-and-isis
• Brad Setser on does-currency-pressure-work-the-case-of-taiwan
• Elliot Brennan on electioneering-cambodia-war-debt-and-china-s-favour
• Liberty Street on the-end-of-chinas-export-juggernaut
• Mehmet Ozalp on explainer-the-war-in-syria-and-the-possibility-of-removing-assad
• Anas Iqtait on palestinian-authority-s-quest-survival-and-relevance
• James Hamilton on chinas-tetralemma

Wonk

• David Andolfatto on fiscal-over-monetary-policy
• Carola Binder on happiness-as-macroeconomic-policy-objective
• Timothy Taylor on interview-with-angus-deaton-on-death-rates etc  , addressing-dislocation-costs-of-trade , the-economics-of-horseshoe-crab-blood
• Olivier Blanchard on need-least-five-classes-macro-models Thanks Mark
• Huon Curtis on explainer-shadow-banking-and-where-it-came-from
• Mainly Macro on economics-is-inexact-science , henry-farrell-on-economists-and-austerity, when-journalism-becomes-propaganda
• Noah Smith on keynesian-economics-is-hot-again , here-s-one-more-thing-to-blame-on-senior-management , ricardo-reis-defends-macro , why-101-model-doesnt-work-for-labor-markets
• Douglas Campbell on a-quick-theory-of-industrial-revolution Thanks Mark
• Nick Bunker on value-added/how-corporate-profit-shifting-distorts-the-measurement-of-u-s-productivity Thanks Mark
• Jared Bernstein on larry-summers-of-all-people-misses-chinas-role-in-secular-stagnation Thanks Mark
• Ricardo Reis on is something really wrong with macroeconomics Thanks Mark
• Paul Frijters on will-robots-take-all-our-jobs-the-long-run-economic-view
• stumbling and mumbling on on-mainstream-economics

General

• Chris Bertram on asylum-seekers-have-to-eat-too
• stumbling and mumbling on the-sporting-life-taxes
• Keiran Hardy on explainer-why-some-acts-are-classified-as-terrorism-but-others-arent
• Roger Shanahan on popes-and-islamists
• John Quiggin on burden-of-proof

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on toys-pram-out
• Real Climate on what-is-the-uncertainty-in-the-earths-temperature-rise, model-projections-and-observations-comparison-page
• Peter Sinclair on great-barrier-reef-bleached-again-by-climate-change
• Bank Underground on green-investment-for-busy-people-retail-investors-need-help-to-navigate-towards-the-2c-climate-goal Thanks Mark
• Moyhu on templs-update-now-march-warmer-tha-feb
• Brian Schmidt on first-quarter-of-2017-is-warmer-than-the-2016-annual-average
• John Abraham on worrisome-signs-for-greenland-ice

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• combining-independent-evidence-using-bayesian-approach-without-standard-bayesian-updating
• hot hand stuff
• mmore-from-ppnas
• stacking-pseudo-bma-and-aic-weights
• pizzagate-update-response-cornell-university-media-relations-office
• bayesian-posteriors-calibrated
• air-rage-rage
• i-wanna-be-ablated
• efron-transition-wit-wisdom-statistical-elders
• Kaiser Fung on my-pre-existing-united-boycott-and-some-musing-on-randomness-and-fairness
• Noah Smith on  statistical-significance-is-overrated

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• nutin, too many easter eggs?
• jan-kiviets-book-on-monte-carlo-sinulation
• no Hesitations on on-inefficiency-of-pseudo-out-of-sample-model-selection

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• enlightenment-and-anti-enlightenment
• actually-existing-capitalism
• how-can-financial-services-serve
• the-big-picture-and-it-isnt-pretty
• Tim Harford on undercover-friday-8
• Doverbeach on daily-reading-9, /daily-reading-11

Vox Wonk

• religious-decentralisation-and-autocracy-case-islam
• online-exploration-content-choice-and-echo-chambers
• robots-and-jobs-evidence-us
• trade-benefits-foreign-banks
• government-quality-and-returns-infrastructure-investment
• austerity-aftermath-great-recession
• progress-benchmarking-macroprudential-policy-strategies
• new-approach-identifying-causal-mechanisms
• subsidiarity-still-key-europe-s-institutional-problems
• ethnic-segregation-and-spatial-income-inequality
• tax-reforms-and-top-incomes
• health-spending-it-s-not-just-about-ageing
• understanding-inflation-in-india
• european-and-asian-incomes-1914-new-take-great-divergence
• global-crisis-and-regional-employment-europe

Austerity still sucks

wow,

More evidence that contractionary fiscal policy is contractionary. We knew this for sure  when Adam Posen showed this to be the case in Japan in the 90s and beyond.

Now we have another article confirming this from Vox wonk as I call it.

Contractionay fiscal pollicy only makes sense as Keynes said in 1936 when economic times are good. You then make room for the private sector. This is why Keynesian economics is so much more austere than classical economics in those conditions. Here in Australia we saw it first with Keating and then with Costello.

However if you introduce it in a slowdown the private sector in contracting thus so will the economy.

If only Katesy understood basic economics, Hey Katesy how many countries had a recovery using your policies?  It is those damned Keynesian statisticians again?!

As a bonus Brad De Long on Noah Smith on how Keynesian economics is hot again

Transport Infrastructure

I have always been a supporter of transport infrastructure that has been properly researched.


The latest article on this from Vox wonk shows the benefits of spending on roads is different to what you may have thought.

Around the Traps 7/4/17

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie.Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on economists-changing-view-of-labour-market , politicians-addicted-to-appearance-of-success , how-politicians-use-claims-about-jobs-to-mislead-us
• The Kouk on to-cut-company-tax-or-not-that-is-the-question , forecasting-and-market-update-trading-the-rba-error , what-rba-governor-lowe-actually-said-on-housing-it-s-supply
• Thomas the Think Engine on can-we-ever-get-road-user-charging-to-work
• Arzane Tarapore on three-ways-improve-australias-intelligence-capability
• Croaking Cassandra on housing-governments-and-public-opinion , the-new-zealand-initiatives-manifesto , nzsf-tries-to-debunk-common-myths, appointing-an-acting-governor-what-the-documents-show, imbalances-in-new-zealand-and-australia
• Philip O'Neil on stumbling-into-the-future-living-with-the-legacy-of-the-great-infrastructure-sell-off
• Rachel Ong on governments-are-trapped-in-a-vicious-cycle-of-housing-policies-and-prices
• John Quiggin on margins
• Greg Jericho on is-there-a-housing-bubble-or-isnt-there
• Ryan Goss on australian-politics-explainer-the-writing-of-our-constitution
• Joelle Gergis on northern-nsw-is-no-stranger-to-floods-but-this-one-was-different

Northern America

• Brad De Long on i-see-john-cochrane-has-tried-to-make-an-april-fools-day-joke-of-sorts-about-obamacare
• Kruggers on of-tweets-and-trade
• Promarket on economists-totality-evidence-underscores-concentration-problem-u-s , new-economy-enables-winners-capture-much-welfareThanks Mark
• Timothy Taylor on a-stroll-through-us-trade-statistics , six-patterns-behind-us-productivity-slowdown
• Kathleen Romig on trumps-budget-director-gets-social-security-disability-insurance-wrong Thanks Mark
• Lane Kenworthy on do-election-outcomes-matter Thanks Mark
• Robert Schiller on trump-bull-market-stocks Thanks Mark 
• David Beckworth on a-challenge-to-feds-normalization-plans
• Leonid Bershidsky on the-gdp-is-a-flawed-but-magical-indicator Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on soft-vs-hard-news-us-gdp-edition , first-year-2017-the-uncertain-future-of-globalization
• Sam Wang on what-happened-in-march
• Laura Tyson on trump-mexico-renegotiate-nafta Thanks Mark
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-lots-to-chew-on-in-the-fomc-minutes , fed-likely-to-discount-weakness-in-march-employment-report
• Nate Silver on nuking-the-filibuster-may-hurt-republicans-in-the-long-run
• Ryan Lizza on susan-rice-and-the-latest-bogus-attempt-to-justify-trumps-wiretapping-tweet
• Brad Plumer on climate-policy-surprises-trump
• Yochi Dreazen and  Zach Beauchamp on trump-syria-policy-assad-chemical-weapon-tillerson-obama
• Andrew Prokop on steve-bannon-trump-shakeup
• Calculated Risk on public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-under-various-Presidents
• David Leonhardt on the-original-lie-about-obamacare Thanks Brad
• Brad De Long on lets-talk-about-cea-chair-nominee-designate-kevin-hassett
• Justin Wolfers on upshot/the-economy-may-be-stuck-in-a-near-zero-world Thanks Mark

Europe

• Stochastic trend on from-wood-to-coal-directed-technical-change-in-the-UK Thanks Mark
• stumbling and mumbling on brexit-as-raising-the-inflation-target
• Simon Wren-Lewis on why-rejoining-eu-is-so-problematic , brexit-and-bbc
• Thomas Sampson on guide-post-brexit-trade-negotiations Thanks Mark
• Bank Underground on big-data-jigsaws-for-central-banks-the-impact-of-the-swiss-franc-de-pegging

Asia

• Euan Graham on what-vietnam-s-fishing-flotilla-doing-scarborough-shoal
• David  Kang on south-korea-s-dangerous-drift
• Vivienne Chow on lam-s-election-jolt-back-reality-hong-kong
• Morris Jones on significant-demonstration-missile-know-how
• Bob Bowker on assad-and-chemical-weapons-regional-repercussions
• Brad Setser on chinas-confusing-trade-and-current-account-numbers
• Frances Kitt on how-would-president-moon-jae-approach-north-korea-and-china
• Menzie Chinn on is-chinas-currency-undervalued-a-reality-check
• Alexander Buev on china-and-russia-friends-strategic-benefits
• Rod Barton on syrias-chemical-weapons-khan-sheikhoun-attack-may-not-be-last

Wonk

• Brad De Long on why-were-economists-as-a-group-as-useless-over-2010-2014-as-over-1929-1935
• Barkely Rosser on fascism-and-you-know-who-ykw
• Timo Henkel on what-economics-has-to-say-about-housing-bubbles
• Cecchetti and Schoeholtz on the-case-for-a-higher-inflation-target-gets-stronger Thanks Mark
• Macromom on trust me I am an economist Thanks Mark
• Nick Rowe on high-wages-encourage-innovation?
• Noah Smith on when-economics-failed , are-rationals-dense
• Peter Dorman on mixed-methods-forecasting
• Charles Goodhardt on why-regulators-should-focus-on-bankers-incentives Thanks Mark
• Lord Keynes on keynes-early-views-on-population-and-immigration
• Timothy Taylor on leniency-in-speeding-tickets
• stumbling and mumbling on wages-and-productivity , the-paradoxes-of-plebiscites, a-right-wing-case-for-taxing-private-schools , immigration-mechanisms
• Simon Wren-Lewis on economists-as-medics
• Jago Dodson on making-sense-of-the-global-infrastructure-turn
• Douglas Campbell on the-real-exchange-rate-and-trade-literature Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on when-rationalists-remade-world
• Jonathan Portes on spreadsheets-are-people-too-statistics-and-reality Thanks Brad
• promarket on suspect-major-reason-rise-concentration-technological-change-particularly-in-IT Thanks Mark

General

• Understanding Society on science-policy-and-cold-war Thanks Mark 
• Mark Blaskovich on the-periodic-table-from-its-classic-design-to-use-in-popular-culture
• coppolla comment on a-dangerous-eden
• Nick Gruen on the-living-and-the-dead-the-arteries-and-the-capillaries-part-one

Climate

• Robert Stavins on delighted-and-depressed
• moyhu on ncepncar-global-surface-temperature-down-o.1c-in-march , global-60-stations-and-coverage, march-global-surface-temperature-down-0.066C
• and Then Theres Physics on its-okay-to-lie? , why-a-reasonably-stable-climate
• John Abraham on scientists-understood-climate-150-yr-ago-better-than-pruitt-does-today
• Arctic sea ice on piomas-april-2017
• hotwhopper on coral-reef-bleaching-with-world-expert-terry-hughes

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• move-nothing-see
• gilovich-doubles-hot-hand-denial
• some-videos-and-podcasts
• no-evidence-providing-drivers-licenses-unauthorized-immigrants-california-decreases-traffic-safety
• life-imitates-art
• study-showing-humans-psychic-powers-caps-daryl-bems-career
• annals-of-spam-6
• not-hard-move-away-hypothesis-testing-toward-bayesian-approach-embracing-variation-accepting-uncertainty-actually-approach-easier-approach
• dear-cornell-university-public-relations-office
• ppppppppppnas
• cross-purposes
• Stephen Woodcock on paradoxes-of-probability-and-other-statistical-strangeness
• Understanding society on observation-measurement-and-explanation
• Kaiser Fung on the-get-rich-quick-scheme-of-the-english , what-is-mr-pruitt-saying

Genial Dave Giles (econometerics)

• read-some-econometrics-this-month
• read-some-econometrics-this-month
• ardl-models-from-team-at-eviews
• Marc Bellamare on one IV for two endogenous variable , and testing for mechanisms Thanks Mark
• Bill Aulet on wisdom-from-data-behavioral-economics Thanks Mark
• No Hesitations on the-latest-on-file-drawer-problem

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• welfare-economics-and-octopus-intelligence
• Doverbeach on daily-reading-4 , daily-reading-5 , daily-reading-6, daily-reading-7 , weekend-reading

Vox wonk

• pread-modern-manufacturing-poor-periphery
• smoke-pollution-and-health-19th-century
• conduct-monetary-policy-diverse-monetary-union
• role-of-in-rainfall-africas-ethnic-conflicts
• global-corporate-saving-glut
• routes-latin-america-and-caribbean-grow
• drivers-employment-generation-and-social-inclusion-eu
• international-elasticity-puzzle-worse-you-think
• what-has-bank-capital-ever-done-us
• central-bank-exit-strategies-next-steps-and-new-horizons
• ideas-of-kenneth-arrow