Wednesday, 9 November 2016

What in the hell happened?

What happened in the USA.

First on the stats

Andrew Gelman

Even our own Mark the Ballot

Next on the modelling
Sam Wang
For my part I am going to disagree with Kruggers. Trump has a fiscal policy that has a very large  stimulus which should boost inflation quite a bit. This will lead the FED to increase rates. Although proectionist measures are usually lead to contraction It would have to be one hellva trade war to see a recession.I would no rule it out though.

I think the easiest prediction to make is he will be a one-term president. He will have to walk away from promises he made that people who voted for him want. Already we learn he is walking away from his immigrant squads whop would hunt down  immigrants. The wall will never be built, A 45% tariff on chines goods would be an absolute disaster  
Populists rarely win elections and so never have to deliver on promises that can never be delivered. Trump now has to.He did not win a majority of votes either.

Hang on Steve your prediction could be right next election!.

Last but very readable

  • David Glasner  As he says imagine what would have happened if Trump won the popular vote but lost in the electoral college!