Abortion

I have never been in favour of abortion.more so when you see the stats show  that most people in Australia do it because of 'life style' reasons.

doverbeach at the Ordeal of Consciousness has two wonderful articles on it.

go read

• a-caro-of-lies-on-abortion
• the-enormity-of-abortion-elided

Some gratuitous advice to the Democrat party

Okay the US has been won by the loons!

Is there anything to understand from the election?

Well in no order of importance here are some from me.

• Trump lost badly in the actual number of votes. This has led to him making stupid statement of why that happened. Here we have two things. Trump is vulnerable electorally. Under pressure Trump makes really stupid statements.
• Clinton essentially lost because her strategy was bad. The team and she MUST take responsibility for this were simply complacent on taking some states and because they thought Trump was unelectable.
• Trump was a left wing candidate and has a left wing platform. 
• Trump made promises which can never be delivered. Locking up Clinton, building a wall, slapping a 45% tariff on Chinese goods,  etc. He made these promises because he never thought he would win
• When the FED starts raising rates as Trump's fiscal policy is enacted Trump will hone in on Yellen. ( the Reagan team did this to Volker when he wanted to get inflation below 4% and the Democrats were mute).
• At some stage  people will realise trump dudded them. as manufacturing industry cannot get back to 1950 levels, you cannot build a wall, you cannot have a trade war, you cannot renegotiate trade deals.
• Trump is an old man ( who apparently trades in wives for a newer model). Being President makes you age!

There is plenty more but even here is rich pickings. I do think Bernie Sanders will have a picnic!

Fidel Castro is dead

Fidel Castro is dead.

All I can say is humanity is much better for that. I would like to say something  profound on the dead barstard's dictator's passing however I cannot.

• Croaking Cassandra can
• as can Doverbeach
• Brad De Long echos my thoughts
• Willaim Rowlandson is way too 'nice' but does show how leftwing academics got wood ducked by Castro
• the best hat in the business Branco Milanovic is very good as well

Around the Traps 25/11/16

It is time for Around the Traps again

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Amy Maguire and Amy Elton on duttons-demonisation-of-refugees-is-the-latest-play-in-a-zero-sum-game
• Croaking Cassandra on monetary-policy-leeway-for-the-next-recession , the-treasury-on-auckland-and-immigration
• Ross Gittins on our-politicians-go-populist-at-their-peril
• The Kouk on -a-few-worrying-facts-on-employment , do-we-need-to-be-worried-about-government-debt , the-sugar-tax-is-sweet
• Greg Jericho on in-fighting-to-protect-jobs-and-workers-lets-not-get-caught-up-in-xenophobia , our-changing-economy-state-by-state-whats-the-key-to-healthy-growth
• Lesley Russell on is-the-investment-in-private-health-insurance-worthwhile
• Stephen Duckett and Trent wiltshire on a-sugary-drinks-tax-could-recoup-some-of-the-costs-of-obesity-while-preventing-it
• Angus Houston on anzus-former-defence-chief-takes-doubters
• Sinclair Davidson on the-sins-of-the-grandchildren
• Brusr Bradbury on where-else-would-they-come-from
• Richard Heaney on how-western-australia-is-handling-the-end-of-the-mining-boom
• Ross Gittins on nanny-state-is-cover-for-exploitation-by-commercial-interests
• Ian Satchwell on the-interpreter/how-us-protectionism-would-threaten-australia
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-are-australian-voters-grumps

Northern America

• Noah Smith on steve-bannon-and-new-crusade , don-t-bet-on-a-crash-from-a-trump-trade-war , are-current-trends-in-econ-methodology-just-fads
• James Hamilton on mr-trump-and-the-markets , rising-interest-rates-and-the-term-premium
• Scepticlawyer on understanding-the-2016-us-presidential-election
• Olivier Blanchard on what-size-fiscal-deficits-united-states Thanks Mark
• Calculated Risk on some-earlythoughts-on-impact-of-trump-economic-policies , a-few-comments-on-october-existing-home-sales , a-few-comments-on-october-new-home-sales
• Heidi Williams et al on providers-patients-health-care-spending-equal Thanks Brad
• Stephen Gtenville on trumps-voters-will-be-disappointed-his-economics
• Timothy Taylor on janet-yellen-doesnt-know-what , more-on-rise-of-alternative-work-arrangements , an-economist-chews-over-thanksgiving
• Mark Humphrey-Jenner on fixing-an-ailing-obamacare-four-ways-to-address-rising-costs-and-less-choice
• Ellyn Terry on outside-looking-in-why-has-labor-force-participation-increased Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on further-dollar-appreciation
• 538 on demographics-not-hacking-explain-the-election-results
• David Weil and Heidi Sherholtz on cbo-report-confirms-what-we-already-knew Thanks Brad
• John Lewis on bitesize-america-is-not-always-like-the-rest-of-the-world Thanks Mark
• Ross Gittins on reduced-competition-may-be-slowing-us-growth
• Mark the Ballot on update-on-us-presidential-election

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on the-folly-of-triggering-article-50 , the-autumn-statement-marks-return-of-austerity
• Chris Dillow on on-class-politics
• Luigi Zingales on europa-o-no Thanks Mark
• Timothy Taylor on the-plague-of-long-term-unemployment-in-europe
• Francesco Saraceno on some-animals-are-more-equal-than-others thanks Mark

Asia

• Casper Wuitte on egypt-back-brink
• Erin Cook on ahok-witch-hunt-jakarta

Wonk

• Tony Yates on kill-two-economic-policy-birds-with-one-stone-more-generous-funded-transfer-payments
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on policy-rules
• Chris Dillow on why-not-worker-directors , populists-as-snake-oil-sellers
• Simon Wren-Lewis on populism-and-media, 2016-autumn-statement
• Roger Farmer on three-facts-about-debt-and-deficits
• Marc Bellamare on Agricultural economists on the cusp thanks Mark
• Eric Lonergan on blogoff-reflections-on-the-curse-of-cash
• Dietrich Vollrath on Accounting-Profits Thanks Mark

General

• Shushma Malik and Caillan Davonport on mythbusting-ancient-rome-throwing-christians-to-the-lions
• Vincent O'donnell on fake-news-is-poison-for-the-body-politic-can-it-be-stopped
• Chris Mackie on lessons-from-ancient-athens-the-art-of-exiling-your-enemies
• Timothy Taylor on paying-bone-marrow-donors
• Coppolla comment on true-patriotism

Climate

• Moyhu on chemistry-of-sequestration-and-carbon , update-check-on-hansens-1988-projections
• Rabett run on and-then-they-came-for-richard-tol
• hotwhopper on weather-weirdness-in-arctic-record-high
• Bryan Wiliamson on do-environmental-regulations-really-work Thanks Mark
• John Quiggin on the-good-news-on-climate-2

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• us-election-analysis-2016-media-voters-campaign
• deep-learning-model-checking-ai-no-homunculus-principle-unitary-nature-consciousness
• how best to partition data into test and holdout samples 
• abraham-lincoln-confidence-intervals
• breakfast-skipping-and-sex-composition-at-birth
• discussion on overfitting in cluster analysis

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• the-dead-grandmotherexam-syndrome
• Marc Bellamare on how to systematically think about selection Thanks Mark
• No Hesitations on dense-data-for-long-memory , updated-dense-data-for-long-memory

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• facts-and-values-statistical-version
• rural-electrification
• the-social-life-of-electricity-continued
• Doverbeach on weekday-reading-3 , /weekend-reading-28
• Tim Harford on the-best-ways-to-combat-bias-from-airbnb-to-ebay
• Dereck Henry Arnold on pink-balls-in-day-night-cricket-could-challenge-players-at-sunset

Vox wonk

• econometrics-and-its-consequences-human-beings
• dealer-information-sharing-us-treasury-auctions
• why-denser-areas-are-more-productive
• comparing-1932-open-market-purchases-and-quantitative-easing
• how-trade-liberalisation-fosters-global-innovation
• production-fragmentation-and-global-trade-slowdown
• how-trade-liberalisation-fosters-global-innovation
• coordination-and-fight-against-tax-havens
• discrimination-public-procurements-cost-reducing-guide
• think-global-act-local
• future-challenges-financial-regulation
• coordination-and-fight-against-tax-havens
• discrimination-public-procurements-cost-reducing-guide
• globalisation-and-brexit
• dilemmas-and-tradeoffs-global-capital-flows
• corporate-governance-and-financial-stability-emerging-markets
• selected-takeaways-ecb-s-sintra-forum
• educating-tomorrow-s-foreign-leaders-might-not-win-their-vote
• winning-peace-challenge-g20
• agglomeration-economies-productivity-and-quality-upgrading
• italian-constitutional-reform-and-legislative-efficiency
• value-trading-relationships-turbulent-times
• drivers-wealth-persistence-across-generations

A Sugar tax

The leading and quite easily the best think tank in Australia has come up with a 'sugar 'tax for the Federal tax.
Stephen Duckett and Trent Wiltshire have written a case for it.

(See Ross Gittins  and THE KOUK as well.)

What does this do. The tax attacks obesity which is a growing problem ( pun intended) in Australia  as well as gaining revenue to the government. A win win situation if ever there was one.  See my old mate from the markets Rory Robertson on the problem of sugar.

This tax should be implemented as soon as possible!!

Sinclair Davidson is right!

Bet you never thought I would say that!

However concerning Peter Dutton's grubby remarks about Malcolm Fraser's immigration program form the Middle East SINCLAIR DAVIDSON is right on the money.
see Also Bruce Bradury 

What Davidson did not say is that Dutton's remarks are simply fodder for ISIL recruiting. It reinforces all their propaganda.

When your Parents die

My mother died last night.
At present only my wife's mother is still alive of our parents.

I found the worst thing in all three deaths was the last time I saw each of them. They were a mere shadow of the people they had been.

The saddest thing I found last night was thinking of my two sons. They only had one grand parent to visit now. They used to love to tease my mother as grandsons as do.

The worst thing I have found is my memories of both my parents and my wife's father is the last time I saw them. As such it is not pleasant.


Update:

Thanks for those people who have have sent their condolences. Much appreciated.

Have the markets got it right about Trump?

After it looked as though Trump was walking away from many of his very silly policies equity markets rallies and bond markets sold off on the basis Trump's policies would be quite expansionary and inflationary. is this correct.

We can assume Trump's unfunded tax cuts will breeze through Congress. Republican only worry about the deficit when Democrats are in control. They never said a thing when Reagan and Bush vastly increased the structural deficit in their day.
The big question is what will the spending on infrastructure will do. I assumed it would be spending on roads , repairing bridges , electricity grids etc..

Let us read some people who have loked at this.

• Larry Summers
• Brad Plumer
• Progrowth Liberal and again
• Kruggers
• Calculated Risk

 So we might just have fiscal policy which blows the budget ( tax cuts always increase the structural deficit without commensurate spending cuts) but does not increase GDP as much as the market expects.

One other thing we are probably going to see is Trump fighting the Fed as the Fed increases interest rates.Carola Binder think so. Those of us who can remember how the Reagan Whitehouse certainly gave Paul Volker a hard time once inflation got to 4%. They did not think he should have been trying to get it below 4%!

Around the Traps 19/11/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Andrew Elder on the-dogs-breakfast
• various on hurt-by-sea-how-storm-surges-and-sea-level-rise-make-coastal-life-risky
• Katherine Gelber and Luke McNamara on change-section-18c-critics-should-do-this-crash-course-first
• Croaking Cassandra on new-zealand-and-the-great-depression , how-many-landlords-in-new-zealand-and-how-many-houses-do-they-own , another-disheartening-makhlouf-speech
• Warren McKeown on changes-to-the-pension-asset-test-will-ripple-through-the-economy
• Peter Martin on the-untruths-were-being-told-about-coal--and-renewable-power
• Menna Rawlings on rebuilding-trust-governments
• Greg Jericho on three-years-of-stagnant-wage-growth-dont-be-surprised-if-people-look-for-someone-to-blame
• The Kouk on is-the-aussie-economy-in-trouble , -government-debt-is-on-track-to-reach-half-a-trillion-dollars
• Carol Johnson on pressure-on-malcolm-turnbull-to-bend-to-conservatives-is-stronger-than-ever
• Ross Gittins on how-weve-grown-for-so-long-safety

Northern America

• David Warsh on the other infrastructure Thanks Mark
• Larry Summers on a-badly-designed-us-stimulus-will-only-hurt-working-class Thanks Mark
• Livio De Matteo on why-the-usa-has-a-trump-and-we-dont-yet
• Robert Waldmann on relatively-not-bad-news-about-health-care-reform
• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on trump-slump-coming , the-medicare-killers
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-december-still-a-go
• Olivier Blanchard on in-light-elections-recession-expansion-and-inequality
• Mark the Ballot on a-quick-look-at-us-election , update-on-us-presidential-election-count
• Nate Silver on will-the-electoral-college-doom-the-democrats-again
• Jeffrey Sachs on trump-and-rebuilding-america Thanks Mark
• Canyon Bosler and Nicholas Pterosky-Nadeau on job-to-job-transitions-in-evolving-labor-market Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-what-will-the-trump-presidency-look-like
• Brad Setser on china-manipulation-day-one-the-1988-trade-act-and-the-bennet-amendment Thanks Mark
• Calculated Risk on the-cupboard-is-full , key-measures-show-inflation-close-to-2%-in-october , comments-on-october-housing-starts
• Menzie Chinn on implications-for-the-agricultural-economy-of-fiscal-policies-proposed-by-president-elect-trump
• Carl Bialik on no-voter-turnout-wasnt-way-down-from-2012
• Jared Bernstein and Ben Speilberg on preparing-for-the-next-recession-lessons-from-the-american-recovery-and-reinvestment-act Thanks Brad
• Dani Rodrik on trump-win-economists-responsible
• John Robertson on wages-climb-higher-faster Thanks Mark
• Narayana Kocherlakota on how-trump-could-spell-trouble-for-the-fed Thanks Mark
• Rhys Bidder on FRBSF Fed views thanks Mark
• Harry Enten on shy-voters-probably-arent-why-the-polls-missed-trump
• Progrowth liberal on privatization-of-public-infrastructure , navarro-nonsense-on-privatization-of-public-infrastructure
• The Piping Shrike on shock
• Barry Eichengreen on growth-before-globalization Thanks Mark
• Timothy Taylor on a-skeptical-look-at-rigor-of-antitrust-enforcement
• Brad Plumer on donald-trump-infrastructure-plan
• Donald Morgan and James Narron on the-final-crisis-chronicle-the-panic-of-1907-and-the-birth-of-the-fed Thanks Mark

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on cutting-mail-down-to-size-welcome-to-scotland
• Frank Barry on implications-for-ireland-of-the-new-trump-regime
• Chris Dillow on ed-balls-the-narture-of-politics

Asia

• Barry Eichengreen on asia should spell out what changes they want in the international monetary system Thanks Brad
• Bianca De Paoli et al on inflation-and-japans-ever-tightening-labor-market  Thanks Mark
• Annas Iqtait on retaking-raqqa-facts-ground
• Pravakar Sahoo on modis-surgical-strike-on-black-money-relies-on-uptake-of-electronic-payments
• Milton Osborne on cambodia-would-hun-sens-cpp-accept-electoral-defeat

Wonk

• Chris Dillow on on-burkean-marxism , tariffs-vs-exchange-rates , on-the-doctrine-of-signatures , ideology-in-economics
• Tony Yates on central-banks-desire-not-to-use-qe-as-the-marginal-tool-of-adjustment-their-exit-and-entry-plans , helicopter-money-are-they-doing-it-anyway-and-if-so-so-what , helicopter-money-and-qe-avoiding-the-fuzzy-reversibility-problem
• Roger Farmer on /the-nrh-is-wrong
• Growth economics on labors-share-profits-and-the-productivity-slowdown thanks Brad
• Usman Chohan on there-is-more-to-good-central-bank-governance-than-independence
• Timothy Taylor on active-labor-market-policies-time-for-aggressive-experimentation , nonstandard-employment-around-world
• Noah Smith on peak-finance-looks-like-it-s-over
• Tim Harford on why-economics-is-a-discipline-in-need-of-diversity
• Simon Wren-Lewis on macroeconomics-and-ideology , a-mission-to-explain
• Lorenzo on globalisation-internationalisation-and-globalism

General

• Daniel Little on delanda-on-concepts-knobs-and-phase Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on the-real-danger
• Doverbeach on moral-relativism-is-incoherent, euthanasia-a-love-story
• Ross Gittins on how-to-get-more-job-satisfaction
• Caleb Ferguson on how-to-recognise-a-stroke-and-what-you-should-know-about-their-treatment
• Arne and Lars Ittner on how-the-brain-changes-in-alzheimers-disease-a-new-view 

Climate

• Peter Canadell et al on fossil-fuel-emissions-have-stalled-global-carbon-budget-2016
• moyhu on lorenz-attractors-fluids-chaos-and-climate
• Blair Trewell on world-set-for-hottest-year-on-record-world-meteorological-organization
• Stoat on judith-curry-wtf , sea-ice-wossup
• Real Climate on record-heat-despite-a-cold-sun , trump-carbon-and-the-paris-agreement
• various on underwater-health-check-shows-kelp-forests-are-declining-around-the-world
• hotwhopper on heat-continues-with-hot-october-second-hottest-on-record
• and Then Theres Physics on non-linear-climate-sensitivity , negative-emissions
• Moyhu on giss-down-just-001-in-october
• Tamino on global-temperature-update-4 , supermoon-flooding , sea-ice-north-and-south , climate-change-the-fish-notice

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• more-on-my-paper-with-john-carlin-on-type-m-and-type-s-errors
• men-with-large-testicles
• josh-miller-hot-hand-talks-nyc-pittsburgh-week
• sniffing-tears-perhaps-not-as-effective-as-claimed
• only-on-the-internet
• anti-immigration-attitudes-didnt-want-bunch-hungarian-refugees-coming-1950s
• thinking-more-seriously-about-the-design-of-exploratory-studies
• know-neuroscientist-explains-trumps-election-victory-rest-us
• Greg Jericho on poll-numbers-election-coverage-horse-race
• Kaiser Fung on this-election-forecasting-business
• Barkely Rosser on the-father-of-systemd-dynamnics-dies

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• monte-carlo-simulation-basics-ii
• inside-interesting-integrals
• 
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• algorithms-and-injustice
• books-at-kilkenomics
• doverbeah on /weekday-reading-2
• Tim Harford on what-im-reading

Vox Wonk

• improving-university-experiences-person-coaching-versus-technology
• shock-propagations-granular-networks
• long-term-unemployment-back-how-can-we-fight-it
• private-shareholders-governance-rules-and-central-bank-financial-behaviour
• financial-globalisation-and-monetary-policy-effectiveness
• highlights-1st-ecb-annual-research-conference
• us-and-eu-immigration-pressures-long-run
• reforming-mutual-funds-proposal-improve-financial-market-resilience
• us-and-eu-immigration-pressures-long-run
• reforming-mutual-funds-proposal-improve-financial-market-resilience
• effects-retirement-timing-uncertainty
• diversity-and-economic-development
• nascent-stock-exchanges-explaining-success-and-failure
• realistic-proposal-end-greece-s-debt-overhang
• rorschach-test-us-monetary-policy
• nascent-stock-exchanges-explaining-success-and-failure
• higher-global-risk-premium-and-fall-equilibrium-real-interest-rates
• unwinding-pound-carry-trade
• economic-impact-reducing-non-performing-loans

Making things up

Yet again our old mate Katesy make things up.

According to him Obama's expansionary fiscal policy has been the problem.

Menzie Chinn shows this is a compete fallacy.

As does John Penn.
How about the IMF.So whilst Obama;s is spending up bigtime he is also drastically reducing the structural deficit.

How does this man have a job?

Is 18C a problem for free speech?

I am quite sceptical of people who ado vacate changes to 18c. for a start they never talk about 18D. They never say Bolt lost his case because he was lazy and admitted he had no accurate information for his charges. ( People often forget the litigants could have sued him for libel but decided on this course deliberately.).

Katherine Gelber and Luke McNamara give us food for thought and allow us to realise the Human Rights Commission has been verballed.

Richard Ackland wonders why lovers of [free speech never talk about reforming the libel laws here.

Peter Lewis also has thoughts on this.

I was not surprised that the person who drooped the case against Bill Leak ( which would have lost on 18D) was being told to go to court by Leak and his mates.

This is a manufactured outrage by an elite in society!

A bad day for Australian Sport

Yesterday was bad for Sport in this country.

The Australian cricket team was disgraceful. Ever since the last Ashes tour we simply have meekly caved in when pressure has been applied. It has been the cast thus far this summer. There is no fight in the team.

Get rid of most of the batsmen and replace them with batsman who can fight. Oh for a modern day Ian Redpath.  Greg Chappell scored his best ton at Lords in 1972 on a pitch doing things together with the ball swinging all match.

In Football we drew with Thailand a very weak nation. We could very well miss out on going to Russia for the world cup. Ange needs to have a good think about the Left back position and whether Rogic does not have the work rate or defensive capabilities for the midfield.

Why oh why when we have three speedsters up front did we not play the flanks? Why are we giving away silly goals.
In the end we should and could have won by 5 or 6 goals but we did not.

Lots of work for Ange to do if he can

The Nationals are in a pickle!

There was a by-election in Orange on the weekend. See Kevin Bonham for results.

Both the Leader and Deputy Leader have resigned after this result, the largest ever swing against a government.

Now my in-laws live at Blayney so the undercurrents against the government were well known there. not many people talked about greyhounds. Lots of people were cheesed off at Council amalgamations. however that issue merely highlighted the fact the Nationals were now acting just like the Liberals.
They had forgotten their grass roots.
Most times when the Nationals go badly this is the problem. As a party they in reality cannot grow. They are a party of narrow sectional interests. Ignore this at your peril.

Troy Grant did and paid the cost. Does Barnaby Joyce realise this?

Andrew Elder on an interesting part of all this.

Reflections on the US Election

Here are a few thoughts on the Presidential election in no order of importance.

• Trump is a left wing politician with left wing policies by the main.
• I do not believe Trump ever thought about becoming President. His boorish behaviour and his pitiful excuses about if he lost tells me he never thought he would win.
• Trump is in a poor electoral position. He lost the popular vote. The vote was the smallest for some time. I think we can say the Clinton camp was complacent about the black and Latino vote in the rustbelt and about women who had been to college. We also had people  just like in Brexit who thought the vote was in the bag and so didn't turn up on the day.  see Nate Silver 
• Markets fell drastically on the news but then rose just as dramatically. this occurred because they both heard a very different Trump but his spokesman essentially said they were walking away from some sort of force who would find all undocumented migrants and send them back to the country of origin. Markets took this to mean all stupid policies would be discarded.
• There will be a battle with the Fed. Remember the Reagan Government took to sniping at Paul Vollker and saying inflation at 4% was more than enough. See Carola Binder on a potential fight. The Fed will have to raise rates perhaps quickly given Trump's inflationary program
• Reagan was also a proctectionist but moderately so and markets are assuming Trump will go the Reagan route on protection 
• We still have no idea of whom will take the important cabinet positions.
• I think we can assume the blowing of the deficit wil occur. Republican regularly do this if it means cutting taxes. They have no idea if you cut taxes but not spending you increase the structural deficit . Reagan did this  as did Bush.Trump also has significant spending proposals. Infrastructure is not a worry but the increases in recurrent spending on the military side.
• I suspect all the talk of deregulation on the banking sector will dissipate. All those working class voters will not be impressed by boosting bank profits with their pay packets going nowhere.
• I also think Trump will find problems with his voting base when he walks away with all those mad policies. Building a wall, putting Clinton in gaol, stopping all muslim immigration, slapping a 45% tariff on all chinese goods.

We shall see

Ross Gittins on the money, As is Kruggers now

Around the Traps 11/11/16

It is time for Around the Traps again

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Joshua Forrester et al on qut-discrimination-case-exposes-human-rights-commission-failings
• Mark the Ballot on how-are-seat-swings-distributed-around-the-national-swing
• Ross Gittins on turnbull-and-morrison-to-fix-budget-without-really-trying
• Greg Jericho on as-climate-disaster-looms-malcolm-turnbull-needs-to-stop-appeasing-and-start-leading
• various on the-lessons-we-need-to-learn-to-deal-with-the-creeping-disaster-of-drought
• Peter Martin on productivity-colmmission-how-big-could-work-for-us , and-you-thought-tpp-was-secret-rcep-is-even-worse
• Greg Jericho on end-the-politics-over-productivity-new-ideas-are-needed-now
• Croaking Cassandra on still-reluctant-to-lower-interest-rates

Northern America

• Brad DeLong on the-prevailing-case-for-caution-by-central-banks , principles-that-should-govern-american-fiscal-policy
• Peter Dorman on understanding-left-opposition-to-state-carbon-taxes
• Timothy Taylor on us-sentiments-on-protectionism-breakdown , fodder-to-chew-over-for-us-election-day , the-differences-between-selective-and-nonselective-higher-education , alexander-hamilton-on-infant-industries
• Fernada Nechio and Glenn Rudebusch on has-fed-fallen-behind-curve-this-year Thanks Calculated Risk
• Brian Balough and Beverly Gape on qanda-with-yale-scholar-how-the-fbi-has-meddled-in-politics-before
• Noah Smith on the-u-s-s-misplaced-admiration-for-europe
• Mathew Yglesias on clinton-email-scandal-bullshit  Thanks Brad
• John Perr on inflation adjusted spending has fallen under Obama Thanks Brad
• Simon Wren-Lewis on trump-misleading-people
• Chris Dillow on my-trump-fear , does-character-matter , is-globalization-to-blame
• David glasner on omg-the-age-of-trump-is-upon-us
• Menzie Chinn on at-long-last-the-feared-portfolio-crowding-out-has-come
• Robert Stavins on what-does-the-trump-victory-mean-for-climate-change-policy Thanks Mark
• Ezra Klein on donald-trump-american-democracy-weakness Thanks Brad
• Carola Binder on political-pressures-on-fed-and-trump-presidency Thanks Mark
• David Andolfatto on us-postwar-growth-and-pop-in-epop
• Calculated Risk on update-prime-working-age-population-growing-again 
• Sam Wang on politics-polls-20-what-just-happened
• Kevin Drum on we-are-all-keynesians-now Thanks Brad
• David Caashin et al on fiscal policy before and after the grest brecession Thanks Brad

Europe

• Tony Yates on lessons-for-macroeconomic-policy-after-brexit
• Simon Wren-Lewis on freedom-of-movement-austerity-labour-MPs-votes-on-Brexit
• Chris Dillow on the-opportunity-cost-of-brexit

Asia

• Jeffrey Hornubg on japans-golden-opportunity
• Noor Uda Ismail on how-jakartas-first-chinese-indonesian-governor-became-an-easy-target-for-radical-islamic-groups
• Jackson Kwok on how-chinese-media-saw-trumps-victory
• Noah Smith on japan-shuts-down-its-monetary-lab

Wonk

• Peter Dorman on the-hard-core-of-neoclassical-economics
• Simon Wren-Lewis on public-investment-and-fiscal-rules , do-new-keynesians-assume-full-employment
• Nick Rowe on my-cunning-plan-to-reform-new-keynesian-macro
• Tim Harford on trump-brexit-and-predictions-in-an-age-of-uncertainty
• Chris Dillow on against-democracy-a-review , knowledge-vs-rationality
• Noah Smith on updating-libertarianism-for-the-21st-century , econ-101-might-be-wrong-about-supply-and-demand
• David Beckworth on monetary-policy-rules-conference
• Tony Yates on central-banks-desire-not-to-use-qe-as-the-marginal-tool-of-adjustment-their-exit-and-entry-plans  
• St Louis Fed on how-neo-fisherism-differs-conventional-wisdom  , neo-fisherism-unconventional-monetary-policy Thanks Mark
• Croaking Cassandra on weak-productivity-growth-can-composition-effects-explain-it
• Timothy Taylor on economics-and-satellite-data

General

• Saul Eslake on the-markets-tell-us-president-trump-is-worse-than-brexit
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-its-a-trumptastrophe
• Tim Harford on rich-the-banker-whats-not-in-a-name
• Brad Setser on just-how-unusual-has-the-recent-spike-in-soybean-exports-been Thanks Mark

Climate

• hotwhopper on troposphere-temperatures-for-october
• Stoat on observed-arctic-sea-ice-loss-directly-follows-anthropogenic-co2-emission
• Sophie Lewis on 2015s-record-breaking-temperatures-will-be-normal-by-2030-its-time-to-adapt
• and Then Theres Physics on sea-surface-warming-and-cloud-feedbacks
• gws on frackingandCO2
• Jeff Masters on third-warmest-october-in-us-weather-records
• Arctic sea ice blog on piomas-november-2016
• Moyhu on templs-down-004-in-october-sea-ice-is-low
• census tract level regression
• david-rothschild-sharad-goel-called-probabilistically-speaking
• election-surprise-three-ways-thinking-probability
• Verean Schoepf on the-third-global-bleaching-event-took-its-toll-on-western-australias-super-corals
• Kate Dooley on keeping-warming-below-1-5-is-possible-but-we-cant-rely-on-removing-carbon-from-the-atmosphere
• Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Christopher White on weve-learned-a-lot-about-heatwaves-but-were-still-just-warming-up

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• different-election-forecasts-not-different
• chance-vote-will-decide-election
• another terrible plot
• recently-sister-blog-elsewhere
• updating-forecast-election-night-r
• how-effective-or-counterproductive-is-universal-child-care
• polls-just-fine-blue-states-blew-red-states
• explanations-shocking-2-shift
• how-effective-or-counterproductive-is-universal-child-care-part-2
• the role of models and empirical work
• James Hamilton on new-data-sources-for-economic-research
• Mark the Ballot on another-polling-fail
• Kevin Bonham on trump-wins-another-major-poll-and-modelling-failure

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• snakes-in-room
• the-bmst-package-for-grelt
• monte-carlo-simulation-basics-i
• Cosman Shalizi on advanced date analysis  Thanks Brad
• No Hesitations on big-data-for-volatility-vstrend

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• bank-of-england-independence

Vox wonk

• sequential-markets-market-power-and-arbitrage
• north-atlantic-transportation-revolution-evidence-passenger-fares
• why-some-jobs-pay-more-others-key-role-job-titles
• sequential-markets-market-power-and-arbitrage
• resiliency-macroprudential-frameworks
• know-your-facts-poverty-numbers
• saving-china-s-stock-market
• diverging-eurozone-household-debt-patterns-role-institutions
• german-council-economic-experts-view-ecb-policy-results-cfm-cepr-survey
• limitations-randomised-controlled-trials
• rating-agencies-consultants-potential-bias
• how-universities-boost-economic-growth
• public-support-euro
• wage-inequality-japan
• electoral-accountability-and-natural-resource-curse
• consequences-brexit-and-trumpit-multinational-car-industry
• effect-migration-foreign-direct-investment

What in the hell happened?

What happened in the USA.

First on the stats

Andrew Gelman

• HERE
• HERE
• HERE

Even our own Mark the Ballot

• HERE

update

Ole Forsberg

Next on the modelling

Sam Wang

• HERE
• Kevin Bonham
• Nate Silver

On analysis

• Calculated Risk
• Kruggers
• Simon Wren-Lewis
• Chris Dillow

For my part I am going to disagree with Kruggers. Trump has a fiscal policy that has a very large  stimulus which should boost inflation quite a bit. This will lead the FED to increase rates. Although proectionist measures are usually lead to contraction It would have to be one hellva trade war to see a recession.I would no rule it out though.

I think the easiest prediction to make is he will be a one-term president. He will have to walk away from promises he made that people who voted for him want. Already we learn he is walking away from his immigrant squads whop would hunt down  immigrants. The wall will never be built, A 45% tariff on chines goods would be an absolute disaster  

Populists rarely win elections and so never have to deliver on promises that can never be delivered. Trump now has to.He did not win a majority of votes either.

Hang on Steve your prediction could be right next election!.

Last but very readable

• David Glasner  As he says imagine what would have happened if Trump won the popular vote but lost in the electoral college!

Final thoughts on the US election

We almost know the result but Clinton must be favoured. Steve from Brisbane is saying 325 electoral college votes which is the same as Sam Wang. M0nty is saying 307 which is the same as Nate Silver!

A few final thoughts

Trump is a modern day Williams Jennings Bryan. Yeah he was a democrat but he was a populist just like Trump only has was intelligent and a great orator.

Trump is a modern day reality based candidate.
Trump does not have a conservative platform.For example he will blow the deficit big time.

Clinton will be impeached. She maybe a policy wonk but she has no political smarts. She was beaten in 2008 by a junior and inexperienced senator.
She only just beat and undetectable candidate in Bernie Sanders.

Against possibly the worst ever candidate in US political history she should be a shoe-in however she is not.
She will be at best a one term President simply because you need to have political smarts. It is highly ironic whereas she has few Bill has them by the tonnes.

The A League and Test Cricket

The A League is going gangbusters. For the first time I am watching the live matches on SBS on Fridays and every match has been a ripper. The competition is close the football enjoyable to watch.
If one thing could be done it would be the promotion of youngsters and some older players let go as they are not good enough.
I am simply waiting for the next Sydney derby at Homebush where they should always be played!!

The Test in Perth was very interesting. We simply did not play as a team whereas South Africa did once .Steyn left the field.
I agree on the Proteas young fast bowler. What a find. He bowled like a 31 year old not a 21 year old. how come a young bloke like this can bowl reverse swing and we cannot. Imagine what the pakis wil do!
Having said that the bowling was not the problem in this test the batting was as it has been for some time.

Around the Traps 4/11/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Roger Dargaville on hazelwoods-closure-wont-affect-power-prices-as-much-as-you-might-think
• Michael duffy etaL on hazelwoods-closure-calls-for-a-rethink-on-latrobe-valley-solutions
• John Freebairn on prrt-explained-why-arent-we-benefitting-from-the-resource-tax
• Alex Reilly on same-old-rhetoric-cannot-justify-banning-refugees-from-australia
• Croaking Cassandra on new-zealand-interest-rates-persistently-higher-than-those-abroad-part-one , nz-interest-rates-why-are-they-persistently-higher-than-those-abroad , whats-good-for-australia-is-good-for-new-zealand , interest-rates-supply-restrictions-and-house-prices , weak-productivity-growth-can-composition-effects-explain-it
• Nick Gruen on michelle-guthrie-and-the-abc
• The Kouk on is-the-aussie-economy-about-to-get-a-surprise-boost-from-commodities , is-the-aussie-economy-back-on-track-for-growth
• Greg Jericho on unemployment-programs-might-give-the-government-a-nice-feeling-but-theyre-fatally-flawed , interest-rates-and-housing-how-the-national-picture-hides-uneven-growth
• Kevin Bonham on bob-day-chaos-thrills-crowd
• Antony Green on /what-happens-if-bob-day-is-disqualified-as-a-senate-candidate
• Ann Twomey on explainer-what-is-the-challenge-to-bob-days-senate-seat-all-about
• Janna Thompson on what-is-racism-and-is-bill-leak-a-controversialist-or-a-racist
• Peter Martin on driving-without-lights-abs-prepares-to-cut-critical-surveys , house-prices-even-head-of-treasury-is-a-mum-and-dad-bank
• Ross Gittins on pick-on-weak-and-friendless-to-pretend-to-fix-the-budget , this-year-changed-politics-of-tax-reform
• Andrew Elder on when-zombies-attack-again
• Mark the Ballot on early-voters-favour-coalition-redux
• John Quiggin on the-national-electricity-market-a-view-from-2001
• Mike Callaghan on should-australia-be-more-canada

Northern America

• David Glasner on so-you-dont-think-the-stock-market-cares-who-wins-the-election-think-again
• Sam Wang on a-test-of-the-polarization-hypothesis
• Brad Delong on federal-reserve-cautious-interest-rates
• James Kwak on the-last-chapter-problem Thanks Mark
• Timothy Taylor on snapshots-of-us-competitiveness-from-Harvard-business-school
• Jared Bernstein on the-ocare-problem
• Menzie Chinn on the-election-implications-for-policy-change
• Narayana Kocherlakota on the-fed-won-t-say-what-it-should Thanks Mark 
• Noah Smith on the-collapsing-math-genius-gender-gapm , no-one-cares-what-economists-say-about-trump
• Brendan O'Connor on six-types-of-ugly-american-and-donald-trump-is-all-of-them
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-fed-remains-on-the-sidelines
• Nicholas Bagley on is-antitrust-the-answer-to-hospital-consolidation Thanks Mark
• Barkely Rosser on the-biggest-disjuncture-ever-between-public-opinion-and-professional-economists
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-battling-unemployment-a-clear-win-for-the-cycs
• Robert Waldmann on james-comey-must-go
• Dean Baker on in-search-of-accelerating-inflation thanks Mark 
• Calculated Risk on comments-solid-october-employment , public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-under-various-Presidents

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on brexit-and-neoliberalism , clintons-emails-and-uk-austerity-sense , is-austerity-to-blame-for-brexit
• Aidan Regan on /the-political-economy-of-brexit-london-will-adapt
• Coppolla comment on the-dangerous-scheming-of-stupid-politicians
• Chris Dillow on selecting-for-fanaticism , on-the-counting-heuristic , the-will-of-the-people
• Timothy Taylor on is-mediterranean-new-rio-grande
• Hannah Wurf on gloomy-forecasts-economic-cooperation-moscow

Asia

• Merriden Varalli on whats-next-xi-jinping
• Hui Feng on chinas-currency-needs-reform-at-home-before-gaining-more-traction-internationally
• Cacchetti and Schoenholtz on bank-of-japan-at-the-policy-frontier Thanks Mark
• Sidney Jones on the-interpreter/why-indonesian-extremists-are-gaining-ground
• Brad Setser on can-china-reduce-its-national-savings-rate-with-more-social-insurance Thanks Mark
• Sam Roggeveen on the-interpreter/pla-air-force-unveils-its-pride-and-joy

Wonk

• Anthony Bergin on the-interpreter/correcting-market-failure-terrorism-insurance
• Tinothy Taylor on fall-2016-journal-of-economic , adam-smiths-watch-making-example, early-childhood-education-promises-and-practicalities
• Chris Dillow on the-case-for-basic-income , socially-influenced-preferences
• Kruggers on trade-plateaus-wonkish
• Brad Setser on when-the-trade-data-does-not-add-up Thanks Mark 
• Stephen Kinsella on the-fatal-flaw-of-the-populist-approach
• JW Mason on functional-finance-vs-conventional-finance Thanks Mark
• Nick Rowe on assignment-of-targets-to-instruments-and-stability
• Robert Waldmann on repairing-macroeconomics
• Simon Wren-Lewis on ann-pettifor-on-mainstream-economics
• Tim Harford on trump-brexit-and-predictions-in-an-age-of-uncertainty

General

• David Beckworth on the-return-of-monetary-mischief-to-Zimbabwe
• Sean Lang on 60-years-ago-suez-crisis-set-a-dangerous-pattern-for-western-military-intervention
• Timothy Taylor on should-museums-own-copyright-on-their-own-paintings-and pictures
• Skepticlawyer on multiculturalism-is-an-experiment-that-might-fail
• Jason Yosar on explainer-what-is-glaucoma-the-sneak-thief-of-sight

Climate

• David Appell on global-sea-ice-extent-is-crashing , ocean-heat-content-continues-to-drop
• and Then Theres Physics on ocean-co2-uptake , ocean-co2-uptake-part-2
• Real Climate on  tuning-in-to-climate-models
• Moyhu on chaos-cfd-and-gcms , climate-and-lorenz-attractor-3d , ncepncar-october-down-0056c-nh-sea-ice-lower
• Tamino on what-would-it-take

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• unintentional-parody-of-psychological-science-style-research-redeemed-by-dan-kahan-insight
• rotten-all-the-way-through
• some-modeling-and-computational-ideas-to-look-into
• trump-clinton-probably-wont-landslide-economy-says
• its-not-about-reality-its-all-about-a-salary
• michael-betancourt-made-nuts-even-awesome-efficient
• kahan-on-the-sources-of-ordinary-science-knowledge-and-ignorance
• modelling presiential voting
• why-i-prefer-50-to-95-intervals
• Brad De Long on bayesianism-versus-smoothing-in-which-i-surrender-unconditionally-to-cosma-shalizi
• Kaiser Fung on the-idol-worship-of-objective-data-is-damaging-our-discipline , readers-guide-to-the-power-pose-controversy-3

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• international-prize-in-statistics
• specification-tests-for-logit-models
• t-w-anderson-1918-2016
• november-reading
• No Hesitations on econometric-analysis-of-recurrent-events

Dianne Coyle ( book reviews + quirky)

• wanting-to-change , still-more-upcoming-books , the-trade-investment-service-intellectual-property-nexus , the-trade-investment-service-intellectual-property-nexus
• Francess Woolley on a-grave-problem
• Travis Holand on why-the-simpsons-has-lost-its-way

Voxwonk

• fundamental-factors-behind-brexit-vote
• new-ebook-refugees-and-economic-migrants-facts-policies-and-challenges
• oliver-hart-and-nature-firm
• recovery-employment-and-revival-us-economic-growth
• new-view-fiscal-policy-and-its-application
• global-disinflation-shock-turns
• public-debt-and-private-investment-china
• public-debt-and-private-investment-china
• labour-market-regulations-and-capital-intensity
• wealth-inequality-childhood
• labour-market-regulations-and-capital-intensity
• growth-gains-fighting-tax-evasion
• how-business-organisations-benefit-internal-labour-markets