Around the Traps 30/9/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Internet not great in Port Macquarie. will update inn Sydaneee on the weekend.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie, Oy,Oy,Oy

• Dylan McConnell on closing-victorias-hazelwood-power-station-is-no-threat-to-electricity-supply
• Croaking Cassandra on a-boardroom-coup
• Andrew Markus on one-in-two-favour-muslim-immigration-ban-beware-the-survey-panel-given-an-all-or-nothing-choice
• Nat Pawson on productivity-commission-stance-has-potential-for-social-housing-gains
• The Kouk on -australia-s-unemployment-rate-no-longer-the-envy-of-the-world , why-the-turnbull-government-s-plan-to-issue-30-year-bonds-is-an-unnecessary-risk
• Jay Rutovitz on the-a-1-2-billion-saving-australias-electricity-rule-maker-just-knocked-back
• density-sprawl-growth-how-australian-cities-have-changed-in-the-last-30-years
• Greg Jericho on welfare-bludgers-on-tabloid-front-pages-dont-pass-reality-test
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-bad-start-for-second
• Croaking Cassandra on subsidy-city-and-the-council
• Dylan McConnell and Andrew King on what-caused-south-australias-state-wide-blackout
• Tim Harcourt on whether-china-is-dumping-steel-in-australia-under-the-market-economy-label-is-very-subject
• Mark the Ballot on confessions-of-failed-forecaster
• The Kouk on -why-the-turnbull-government-s-plan-to-issue-30-year-bonds-is-an-unnecessary-risk , the-recessionary-horror-of-the-western-australian-economy

Northern America

• Kruggers on the-falsity-of-false-equivalence, vat-of-deplorables
• Calculates Risk on a-few-comments-on-august-new-home-sales , real-prices-and-price-to-rent-ratio-in-July
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-december-looking-good-but
• Carola Binder on why-are-long-run-inflation-expectations-falling
• Timothy Taylor on sketching-state-laws-on-administration-of-elections
• Brad and Michael De Long on us-health-insurance-mergers
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-a-radical-solution-to-the-fundamental-flaws-in-us-politics-vote
• John Robertson on back-to-the-80s-courtesy-of-wage-growth-tracker
• Dean Baker on contrary-to-what-ap-tells-you-social-security-is-not-a-main-driver-of-the-country-s-long-term-budget-problem Thanks Mark
• Progrowth Liberal on peter-navarros-scoring-of-trumps-economic-proposals
• Larry Summers on four-modifications-to-feds-current-posture Thanks Mark 
• John Robertson on quick-pay-check-wage-growth-of-full-time-part-time-workers Thanks Mark  

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on the-total-failure-of-centre-left
• Kevin O'Rourke on the-eu-and-the-border
• Chris Dillow on what-blairites , labours-advantages , immigration-the-rights-problem
• Brad Setser on the-ecb-on-the-slowdown-in-global-trade Thanks Mark 

Asia

• Morris Jones on Chinas-big-dish-is-a-big-deal-for-planet-earth
• Shashank Joshi on Indias-strategic-restraint-on-Kashmir
• Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng on china-property-price-bubble Thanks Mark
• Brad Setser on the-imfs-recommended-fiscal-path-for-japan Thanks Mark
• Eric Lonergan on the-bank-of-japan-is-testing-romers-hypothesis

Wonk

• Nick Rowe on cheshire-cats-and-new-keynesian-central-banks , front-vs-rear-wheel-steering-for-monetary-policy
• Sandwichman on the-case-for-equilibrium-coinage-usury-and-bills-of-exchange , the-mystic-labyrinth-of-free-trade
• Robert Waldmann on /on-the-new-heavyweight-macro-critics
• Coppolla comment on a-dent-in-surface-of-time
• Stephen Grenville on The-Trans-Pacific-Partnership-in-doubt-Does-it-matter
• Noah Smith on economics-has-a-major-blind-spot
• Brad De Long on the-stakes-of-the-helicopter-money-debate-a-primer
• Will Holman and Brad Pike on the-economic-effects-of-globalisation-a-view-from-two-of-the-banks-agents Thanks Mark
• Nouriel Roubini on shift-from-monetary-to-fiscal-policy Thanks Mark
• Chris Waller on was-the-great-moderation-simply-on-vacation Thanks Mark
• Hans Werner Sinn on creative-destruction-saves-advanced-economies thanks Brad
• Francess Woolley on whats-the-right-discount-rate-for-infrastructure-investment
• Roger Farmer on the-liquidity-trap-and-how-to-escape-it-time-for-a-new-approach
• Edward Lambert on invest-cost-money
• Nuno Palmer on gdp-reconstructions-for-the-early-modern-period Thanks Jim Rose
• Simon Wren-Lewis on why-was-austerity-once-so-popular , immigration-and-experts
• Tim Harford on why central bankers shouldn't have skin in the game
• Timothy Taylor on shadow-banking-bounces-back , small-and-medium-companies-in-world
• David Andolfatto on beveridge-curves
• David Glasner on price-stickiness-is-a-symptom-not-a-cause
• Roger Farmer and Pawl Zabzczyk on why-unconventional-monetary-policy-works-in-theory Thanks Mark 
• David Beckworth on the-loflation-pandemic-curse-of-success

General

• Nick Gruen on care
• Callen Davenport and Shusma Mallik on mythbusting-ancient-rome-the-emperor-nero
• Marilyn McMahon on there-are-question-marks-over-much-of-the-forensic-evidence-used-in-our-courts

Climate

• Real Climate on why-correlations-of-co2-and-temperature-over-ice-age-cycles-dont-define-climate-sensitivity , the-snyder-sensitivity-situation
• Skeptical science on how-deniers-accept-so-many-impossible-things-at-once
• Andrew Gilkson on current-emissions-could-already-warm-world-to-dangerous-levels-study
• Tamino on its-the-ice-stupid
• various on record-high-to-record-low-what-on-earth-is-happening-to-antarcticas-sea-ice
• and Then Theres Physics on earth-system-sensitivity-and-things

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• politics-and-chance
• no statistically significant differences
• getting-down-and-dirty-with-the-polls
• i-refuse-to-blog-about-this-one
• find the best algorithm 
• he-wants-to-get-started-on-bayes
• nprs-gonna-npr
• why-the-garden-of-forking-paths-criticism-of-p-values-is-not-like-a-famous-borscht-belt-comedy-bit
• dont-trust-rasmussen-polls
• Kaiser Fung on making-sense-of-the-most-detailed-map-of-gay-marriages , inside-joke-for-data-analysts-via-gelman

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• nuttin

Diane Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• the-state-of-economics , shadow-boxing, shadow-boxing
• Doverbeach on weekend-reading

Vox Wonk

• negative-interest-rate-policies-channels-and-consequences
• minimum-wage-and-infant-health
• why-banking-crisis-china-seems-unavoidable
• etsexit
• product-market-reforms-under-microscope
• bye-bye-covered-interest-parity
• objectives-financial-stability-policy
• conceptual-challenges-international-finance
• evaluating-trump-s-trade-policies
• when-bank-boards-get-too-cosy-expect-misconduct
• democracy-does-not-cause-growth
• when-bank-boards-get-too-cosy-expect-misconduct
• financial-literacy-reduces-late-life-anxiety

Steve from Brisbane beats me to it.

Steve from Brisbane has written an admirable article bagging Stagflation Davidson for making a call on the South Australian blackout on NO information.

Typical of the lazy sod!

Davidson like all at Catallaxy never marks his belief to the market.

I should have added commenters at Callaxy must vie with those at Watts up with that as the most clueless of all as you can read

Commenting on the Presidential debate they simply lapped up online polls. Random samples anyone??

Update:

Here is a good summary

The Presidential Debate

The debate went pretty much as I anticipated indeed predicted. Hillary won in a canter.
She won this easily because she was well prepared and knew the detail and Trump was not and resorted to bluster as well as trump interuptus.

What did surprise me was how Presidential Hillary looked. I really did not think she had it in her.

Trump could not talk about Hillary's greatest weakness either. Her ability to work with a hostile congress.

At this stage we do know only complete nutcases would support Trump.

One thing Clinton got badly wrong was the possibility of recession under Trump. with the Deficit blowing out to reaganesque levels the US economy would be roaring.  CBA research backs me on this. they also see the  US roaring and inflation rising sharply.

update:

I was right

Further Update:
538 confirms Clinton's  thrashing of Trump

Menzies

My youngest son has been watching the series on Menzies.

I was wondering whether they would talk about inflation hitting 35% under Menzies when we had the Korean war boom. No. what about Menzies probably losing both the 54 and 61 elections under fair electoral boundaires. any mention that it was Black Jack McEwen that was responsible for the Japan trade deal so if anything went pear-shaped he got the blame.

No mention of the protectionism of industry that made it a house of cards and when we were hit with an overseas shock it all came crumbling down. any mention of the Vernon committee that produced the finest report post WW2 ( and which Whitlam based his 69 and 72 campaigns. He actually had a lot of supply side reforms!)

What we got was yet another one sided or worse and ignorant view of the Menzies era,

He had a lot of luck but used it brilliantly. Just compare Shorten and his tactics now to Calwell after the 61 election.

Indeed read Daly's  memoirs on the era.entertaining reading. Evatt a genius and then a mad man. Calwell never having the strategic nous..

Must reading for public policy wonks

If you love reading then Dianne Coyle's blog is a must read.

She has an absolute must read for reading if you are into public policy.

Enjoy

Around the Traps 23/9/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie, Oy, Oy,Oy

• Gregory Melloush on todays-leaders-could-learn-from-menzies-who-built-modern-australia-without-acting-in-haste
• Peter Martin on meet-debelle-and-lowe-odd-couple-wholl-run-the-RBA , no-longer-retrospective-super-changes , the-extraordinary-costs-of-offshore, government-considering-national-default-super , the-true-cost-of-our-insanely-low-newstart-allowance
• Lorenzo on why-hasnt-the-politics-of-immigration-in-australia-gone-feral
• John Quiggin on last-chance-on-climate-change-policy , new-zealands-zombie-miracle , why-cant-our-leaders-learn-from-30-years-of-failure-in-health-and-education
• Roger Shanahan on Time-for-Canberra-to-come-clean-on-what-were-doing-in-Syria
• Kevin Bonham on 2016-house-of-reps-results-finalised , federal-election-2016-best-and-worst-pollsters , federal-2pp-aggregate-methods-45th , field-guide-to-opinion-pollsters-45th
• Thomas the think engine on /house-price-omens
• Jeffrey Knapp on asic-company-data-should-be-open-and-free-even-malcolm-turnbull-agrees
• Peter Whiteford on the-4-8-trillion-dollar-question-will-an-investment-approach-to-welfare-help-the-most-disadvantaged
• Stephen Grenville on Hows-the-Australian-economy-going
• Ross Gittins on faster-growth-demands-better-chief-executives  , brave-minister-wants-us-to-think-about-road-user-charges , the-rules-on-how-we-conduct-monetary
• Greg Jericho on christian-porters-welfare-figures-are-designed-to-shock-pay-them-no-respect
• Ken Parish on would-the-high-court-uphold-sections-18c-and-18d-of-the-rda-on-constitutional-grounds
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-lowe-makes-the-case-for-good-government-debt
• John Gooding on How-much-do-Australians-actually-want-a-ban-on-Muslim-immigration
• Frances Voon on What-if-other-countries-copied-Australias-border-security-example

Northern America

• Martin Longman on you-break-it-you-own-it  Thanks Brad 
• Roger Farmer on unemployment-and-hours-are-very-different-animals
• Bruce Bartlett on opinion/its-not-too-late-to-fix-fox-news Thanks Brad
• Noah Smith on what-do-white-americans-stand-to-lose
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-august-housing-starts , a-few-comments-on-august-existing-home-sales
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-ahead-of-the-fomc-meeting
• Barkely Rosser on it-is-monday-and-washington-post-is-saying-dumb-things
• Robert Waldmann on unskewing-538
• Timothy Taylor on audit-studies-and-housing-discrimination , tax-code-carrots-and-sticks-for-health-insurance-an-update , economics-of-immigration-nas-report
• Jason Furman on dynamic_taxreform Thanks Mark
• Narayan Kocherlakota on professors-aren-t-feeling-the-economy-s-pain  , the-fed-s-mission-a-rocket-launch-from-jupiter Thanks Mark
• Progrowth liberal on how-many-ways-can-niall-ferguson-contradict-himself-on-economic-policy
• Carola Binder on  the-economics-of-crime

Europe

• Ken Thomas on thats-what-im-talkin-about-ireland
• Simon Wren-Lewis on in-long-run-our-children-are-adults , the-treasury-and-brexit , explaining-macroeconomics-to-swabian-housewives , inequality-under-labour-government
• Daniel Hough on merkels-party-slumps-in-berlin-election-but-dont-count-her-out-for-2017
• Simon Heffer on Vale-David-Cameron-His-only-legacy-a-massive-miscalculation
• Daniel Woker on Joining-the-dots-between-the-US-pivot-Brexit-and-a-European-army
• Chris Dillow on the-centrist-crisis
• Phillip Heimberger and Jakob Kapeller on how-economic-policy-drives-european-disintegration Thanks Mark

Asia

• Euan Cameron on North-Korea-Reaching-for-Armageddon1
• Brad Setser on china-can-now-organize-its-own-financial-coalitions-of-the-willing Thanks Mark
• Ahmad Shujha on Afghanistan-conflict-fuels-desperate-journeys
• David Beckworth on the-bank-of-japan-monetary-mastery-or-quantitative-quagmire
• Mohamed Al Erian on japan-s-central-bank-experiments-at-the-wrong-time Thanks Mark
• Shino Takahama on explainer-why-the-japanese-economy-is-stuck-in-a-holding-pattern
• Joe Gagnon on realtime-economic-issues-watch/bank-japan-good-strategic-revision-tactics-still-lag Thanks Mark 
• Ben Bernanke on the-latest-from-the-bank-of-japan Thanks Mark 

Wonk

• Narayana Kocherlakota on how to build a better macro-economics Thanks Mark 
• Nick Rowe on do-monetary-shocks-matter-much
• Edward Lambert on inflation-tied-profit-margins
• Brad De Long on the-clones-of-jim-tobin-vs-the-gravitational-pull-of-chicago-a-paul-krugman-production
• Timothy Taylor on declining-competition-in-us-markets
• Noah Smith on free-trade-s-unwilling-victims , monetarists-are-out-of-ideas , trust-gains-as-a-fudge-factor-in-economics , companies-that-discriminate-fail-eventually
• Chris Dillow on immigration-as-social-mobility , in-defence-of-technology-shocks , persuasion-in-a-post-truth-world
• Richard Serlin on ai-and-krugmans-hot-dogs Thanks Mark
• Kruggers on what have we learnt from the crisis Thanks Brad
• Simon Wren-Lewis on paul-romer-on-macroeconomics , what-is-so-bad-about-rbc-model
• Livio De Matteo on is-it-banking-crisis-season
• Sandwichman on nine-spades-are-lump-of-leets , one-mans-profit-is-anothers-loss
• Coppolla Comment on some-unpleasant-trade-realities
• Miles Kimball on negative-rates-and-the-fiscal-theory-of-the-price-level Thanks Mark
• Paul Romer on trouble-with-macroeconomics-update  , letter-from-an-aspiring-macroeconomist-with-responseThanks Mark
• Tim Harford on how-insurers-keep-the-money-pump-flowing
• Eric Lonergan on fiscal-subservience-a-reply-to-chris-sims
• Leon Berkelmans on /Where-economics-fits-in-the-security-debate
• John Quiggin on brexit-and-bigotry
• David Glasner on paul-romer-on-modern-macroeconomics-or-the-all-models-are-false-dodge
• Marc Lavoie on rethinking-macro-theory Thanks Mark

General

• Claudia Taxreiter on UN-Refugees-Summit-Operation-Sovereign-Borders-under-global-scrutiny
• Scott Ferraro on no-cutting-your-cars-carbon-emissions-wont-cost-you-more

Climate

• David Appell on arctic-sea-ice-has-nadired , another-paper-has-been-published
• Hotwhopper on one-of-fastest-arctic-sea-ice-growths
• Realclimate on what-is-new-in-european-climate-research
• and Then Theres Physics on engineering-the-software-for-understanding-climate-change , weather-or-climate-change  
• Variable Variability on global-warming-goes-viral
• Real climate on can-a-blanket-violate-the-second-law-of-thermodynamics
• Tamino on misleading-trends-sea-level-version
• Moyhu on crutem-hadcrut-versions-are-documented-and-accessible
• Robert Stavins on a-key-moment-for-california-climate-policy Thanks Mark
• Greg Laden on what_we_need_to_do_to_stop_global_warming_climate_change

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• another-item-for-uris-comment-section
• acupuncture-paradox-update
• methodological-terrorism
• what-has-happened-down-here-is-the-winds-have-changed
• solving-statistics-problems-using-stan-my-talk-at-the-university-of-michigan-this-fri
• why-is-the-scientific-replication-crisis-centered-on-psychology
• multicollinearity
• why-doesnt-this-apparent-case-of-plagiarism-bother-me-at-a-gut-level
• trump-1-in-florida-or-a-quick-comment-on-that-5-groups-analyze-the-same-poll-exercise
• a-break-in-the-thin-blue-line
• and Then Theres Physics on science-is-broken

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• nutting not happy Dave!

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• public-policy-reading , humans-need-not-apply , what-next-3
• Tim Harford on autumnal-reading

Vox wonk

• political-foundations-lender-last-resort
• esbies-safety-tranches
• income-inequality-globalising-world
• esbies-safety-tranches
• sharing-business-models-between-multinational-parent-firms-and-their-affiliates
• rethinking-inflation-targets-long-zlb-episodes
• how-computer-automation-affects-occupations
• natural-resource-extraction-and-local-business-constraints
• how-regulate-ceo-pay-and-how-not-do-it
• after-2004-eu-accession-countries-increased-trade-australia
• tax-policy-guided-public-opinion-inequality
• new-approach-valuing-architectural-amenities
• framework-measuring-tasks-across-occupations

Getting Old

I am feeling my age.

Last Thursday I went into hospital for my now once every two years colonoscopy Apart from the lack of food it isn't that bad.

However I got vertigo form a viral condition and combine this with nausea and I am feeling very weird at present. .When I walked to the doctor it was id I have been an all nighter.

At present I cannot do a thing.

Getting old sucks!

Around the Traps 16/9/16

It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Thomas Clarke on a-history-of-failed-reform-why-australia-needs-a-banking-royal-commission.
• David van Mill on explainer-what-is-free-speech
• Dennis Muller on free-speech-and-the-media-are-too-often-in-a-marriage-of-convenience
• Nick Gruen on regulatory-responsiveness-and-industry-policy , why-is-our-faith-in-democratic-politics-collapsing
• Marion Terrill and Owain Emslie on road-user-charging-belongs-on-the-political-agenda-as-the-best-answer-for-congestion-management
• Greg Jericho on even-with-further-rate-cuts-new-home-buyers-will-have-historically-high-debt , jobless-rate-offers-coalition-a-chance-to-brag-so-why-has-it-barely-had-a-mention
• Katherine Gelber on free-speech-is-at-risk-in-australia-and-its-not-from-section-18c-
• Luke McNamara on section-18c-is-an-important-part-of-a-civilised-society-and-no-threat-to-free-speech
• Dallas Rogers on australias-housing-affordability-problem-explained-in-five-historical-steps
• Various on why-is-trachoma-blinding-aboriginal-children-when-mainstream-australia-eliminated-it-100-years-ago
• Andrew Zammitt on Terrorism-Its-not-all-in-the-numbers
• Stephen Grenville on Few-benefits-likely-from-a-trade-deal-with-post-Brexit-Britain
• Ross Gittins on why-super-tax-changes-mustnt-be-watered-down
• John Quiggin on recognising-racism
• Dylan McCormick on factcheck-have-eight-of-australias-12-most-emission-intensive-power-stations-closed-in-the-last-five-years
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-flat-employment-remains-worrying-for-australia

Northern America

• Lael Brainard on the new normal and what it means for monetary policy Thanks Brad 
• Timothy Taylor on /kindergarten-readiness-gap , how-poverty-limits-bandwidth
• James Kwak on confused-about-taxes Thanks Mark
• Ben Bernanke on modifying-the-feds-policy-framework-does-a-higher-inflation-target-beat-negative-interest-rates Thanks Mark
• Edward Lambert on mon-move-core-inflation
• Narayana Kocherlakota on the-fed-is-planning-for-another-slow-recovery Thanks Mark
• Thomas Pally on the Fed must rethink on how it tightens monetary policy Thanks Mark 
• Nate Silver on election-update-has-clintons-bad-weekend-moved-the-polls , election-update-democrats-should-panic-if-the-polls-still-look-like-this-in-a-week
• Calculated Risk on key-measures-show-inflation-close-to-2%-in-august
• Narayana Kocherlakota on the-fed-is-about-to-make-a-mistake Thanks Mark

Europe

• Seamus Coffey on the-apple-ruling-what-do-we-know
• Simon Wren-Lewis on trump-brexit-and-balance
• Brad Setser on there-really-is-no-reason-for-germany-not-to-do-a-fiscal-stimulus-right-now  m do-not-count-european-fiscal-chickens-before-they-hatchThanks Mark
• Chris Dillow on rather-good-at-it
• Barry Eichengreen on small-uk-export-boost-since-brexit-vote Thanks Mark
• Marcus Coila on Alternativlos-The-future-of-Angela-Merkels-chancellorship

Asia

• Roger Shanahan on The-Sryia-(no-big)-peace-deal
• Euan Graham on Russia-over-a-South-China-Sea-barrel
• Helen Clark on Why-Vietnam-has-India-in-its-sights

Wonk

• Simon Wren-Lewis on stock-flow-consistent-models-response-to-Jo-Michell , /economics-dsge-and-reality-personal
• Nick Rowe on money-stocks-and-flows , do-monetary-shocks-matter-much
• Joseph Joyce on the-search-for-an-effective-macro-policy
• Chris Dillow on meritocracy-vs-freedom , fat-and-lazy , the-dying-bird-of-globalization , an-academic-problem
• Mean squared Errors on houdinis-straightjacket , the-microfoundations-hoaxThanks Mark
• David Glasner on where-do-monetary-rules-come-from-and-how-do-they-work , nick-rowe-ignores-but-does-not-refute-the-law-of-reflux
• Roger Farmer on why-central-bankers-are-like-sheepdogs
• Coppolla Comment on are-inheritance-taxes-unfair
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on inflation-and-fiscal-policy Thanks Mark 
• Sandwichman on brankos-lumps
• Paul Romer on the_trouble_with_macroeconomics  , WP-Troublethanks Mark
• Noah Smith on the-new-heavyweight-macro-critics 
• Necmi Akiran on shadow-banking-increases-the-risk-of-another-global-financial-crisis
• Mark Thoma on we-need-to-move-on-from-existing-theories-of-the-economy
• Ric Lonergan on there-is-no-r
• Barkely Rosser on whither-agent-based-macroeconomic-modelling
• Robert Waldmann on macro-mess Thanks Mark

General

• Rachel Morrison on get-out-of-my-face-were-more-antisocial-in-a-shared-office-space
• Deborah Corrigan on what-is-the-role-of-a-teacher
• Peter Ellerton on what-exactly-is-the-scientific-method-and-why-do-so-many-people-get-it-wrong

Climate

• David Appell on la-nina-looking-even-less-likely , clarifying-past-discussion-on-greenhouse-effect
• hotwhopper on troposphere-temperatures-for-august-2016 , crikey-hottest-august-on-record
• Tamino on climate-deniers-embarrass-themselves-about-arctic-sea-ice , global-temperature-hot , hot-days-down-under , brian-coxs-denier-takedown-a-high-point-for-climate-journalism , speedup-skeptic
• and Then Theres Physics on the-attribution-question , why-i-find-it-difficult-to-discuss-climate-policy
• David Stern on progress-on-new-climate-modeling-paper
• Peter Sinclair on arctic-sea-ice-minimum-reached
• Arctic sea ice blog on asi-2016-update-7-minimum-time
• Elisabeth Boulton on How-climate-scientists-cut-through-a-political-log-jam-of-gigantic-proportions
• Moyhu on thermodynamics-of-climate-feedback , arctic-ice-freezing-antarctic-melting
• Realclimate on predicting-annual-temperatures-a-year-ahead
• Stoat on massive-cover-up-exposed-285-papers-from-1960s-80s-reveal-robust-global-cooling-scientific-consensus

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• genius-is-not-enough-the-sad-story-of-peter-hagelstein
• bayesian-statistics-then-and-now
• solving-statistics-problems-using-stan-my-talk-at-the-nyc-chapter-of-the-american-statistical-association
• no guarantee
• lets play twister 
• evaluating-online-nonprobability-surveys
• sharing-data-heres-how-you-do-it
• an-auto-mechanic-style-sign-for-data-sharing
• redemption
• pro-publicas-new-surgeon-scorecards-2
• Kaiser Fung on gmo-labeling-is-good-science , quote-of-the-month, thank-you-buzzfeed-for-noticing-us-humans, know-your-data-20-trust-and-distrust-in-our-surveillance-society

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• No Hesitations on time-series-econometrics-and-climate-change , 1989-and-all-that

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• capital-and-its-morals , the-vanishing-middle-class , post-truth-rhetoric
• David Flannery on ancient-life-in-greenland-and-the-search-for-life-on-mars
• Claudia Sahm on with data comes responsibility

Vox wonk

• origin-of-secular-stagnation
• intergenerational-mobility-denmark-and-us
• efficiency-entry-monopoly-and-market-deregulation
• wage-stickiness-and-unemployment-regulated-and-unregulated-labour-markets-italian-evidence
• budget-related-cross-border-flows-eu-versus-us
• ideas-reinhard-selten
• estimating-currency-misalignment-using-penn-effect
• role-blockholders-governance
• peer-peer-fundraising-and-relational-altruism-charitable-giving
• article/vix-and-its-derivatives
• health-insurance-competition-and-consumer-welfare
• consumption-network-effects
• mercosur-not-really-free-trade-agreement-let-alone-customs-union
• trade-globalisation-last-two-centuries
• competition-and-sorting-evidence-bundesliga-football

Baird runs into trouble

The most recent poll in NSW had the ALP and the government even steven. This would mean the government winning again but it still means quite a shift away from Baird since the last election.

As Julius Sumner Miller used to say Why is this so?

Well Baird has dome a lot of things and so it is not surprising some of these things has hit nerves.
Let us look at a few.

• The Lock out laws.  ( if you are not up to speed then read the Callinan report released yesterday.) . This has proved quite popular. Amazing people do not like drunks hanging around after 2 a.m. in the morning despite cries it is bad for business.
• Banning Greyhound racing . This has also proved popular. Most greyhounds are killed when it is  clear they cannot win races and they are trained by live baiting. Despite a huge campaign by shock jocks most people have no great love for greyhound racing!
• Council mergers. It has always bemused me how state governments can change councils on any grounds and insist on mergers.This issue has hit hard. People are closer to local council of all Governments. The reasons put up by Baird appear spurious for mergers and I am very wary on the cricketing front re turf wickets,
• The Selling of Poles and Wires. The rejection by Scott Morrison of the selling of Ausgrid proved very embarrassing. This needs to be sold for necessary infrastructure spending. No-one still has any idea of what is happening here.
• Westconnex Homes have had to be resumed so westconnex could go ahead.Only inner city greenies object to this because they do not want wextconnex. .

In all of this we should also realise Luke Foley has come of age as an Opposition Leader and hit quite a few blows. He also has gained some talent ( only some) from the last election.

Given Baird is now persona no grata at 2GB will he learn the lessons of Carr with regard to these boofheads or not!!

Politics has suddenly become interesting in the state of NSW

The origin of secular stagnation

A fascinating article from vox wonk as I called it on the origin of secular stagnation.

Coldplay

My oldest son and myself can agree on enjoying Coldplay.

He has this on his phone and I love it.

Army of One.

I'm told this was written for Downton's Abbey's last episode.  Ironic. My family liked the series but I didn't and I;m the one that loves the history of the period!

Around the Traps 9/9/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

I am quite ill so I will update when I get out of bed!
I have arisen from my death bed!

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Lee on Australia-cannot-afford-to-spurn-its-Chinese-disapora
• Ross Gittins on morrisons-unplanned-plan-to-fix-the-budget , lets-not-blow-our-big-chance-for-progress-on-climate-change
• Greg Jericho on the-economy-may-be-growing-but-it-sure-doesnt-feel-that-way-to-most-of-us , 48bn-found-down-the-back-of-the-couch-doesnt-leave-much-confidence-in-gdp-figures
• John Blaxland on australia-must-heed-the-lessons-of-hybrid-warfare-to-avoid-falling-behind-on-the-battlefield
• John Daley et al on new-grattan-research-shows-what-is-at-stake-in-the-superannuation-debate
• Croaking Cassandra on lvr-controls-regulatory-philosophy-and-the-oia
• The Kouk on  400-on-the-road-to-federal-budget-repair , whats-the-point-of-budget-repair-if-so-many-australians-are-unemployed-and-underemployed
• Rick Snell on brandis-diaries-case-shows-how-freedom-of-information-has-been-deliberately-neglected
• Damien Spry on what-is-soft-power-hint-its-not-footing-sam-dastyaris-bills
• John Rolfe on company-results-wrap-is-the-resources-downturn-structural-or-cyclical
• Roger Shanahan on Australia-stars-in-first-edition-of-new-ISIS-magazine
• Nick Gruen on ian-marsh-australias-gridlocked-parliament 
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-scrape-below-the-surface-and-the-economy-doesnt-look-so-good
• Ben Rich on could-islamic-states-new-threats-against-australia-show-its-bark-is-now-worse-than-its-bite
• Mamiza Haq and Necmi Avkiran on company-results-wrap-weighing-up-the-risks-behind-the-profits-of-australias-big-four-banks

Northern America

• Roger Farmer on message-to-the-fed-were-not-in-kansas-anymore
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-rate-hike-hopes-fading-fast , fed-watch-is-pushing-unemployment-lower-a-risky-strategy
• Larry Summers on the-feds-complacency-about-its-current-toolbox-is-unwarranted Thanks Mark
• Timothy Taylor on some-economics-for-labor-day , foreign-direct-investment-in-united-states
• Edward Lambert on labour-supply-limit-holding
• Pat Higgins on introducing-the-atlanta-feds-taylor-rule-utility

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on competence-and-strategic-vision , why-does-anyone-listen-to-nigel-lawson , the-uk-goes-back-to-1950s
• Lynne Michelle Swarts on racist-kitsch-begs-a-deeper-question-can-jews-really-be-part-of-poland 
• Chris Dillow on neither-smith-nor-corbyn   and then Simon on labour-elections-response-to-chris-dillow 
• Stephen Kinsella on how-much-of-irelands-fiscal-space-will-climate-inaction-consume
• Eric Lonergan on brexit-everyone-got-it-wrong

Asia

• Anthony Bubalo on What-Saudi-Arabia-is-thinking-about-China-and-the-South-China-Sea
• Simone van Nieuwenhusen on Curing-Mao-fever
• Esward Cavanough on Uzbekistan-Fragile-and-uncertain-as-the-curtain-falls-on-Karimov-era
• Kerry Brown on Xi-drives-a-grand-bargain-in-Chinas-summit-season
• Malcolm Cook on Rodrigo-Dutertes-mayoral-mentality
• Meriden Varrall on Hong-Kong-election-results-A-challenge-to-Chinas-immutability
• Timothy Taylor on chinas-insufficient-investment-in-education
• Brad Setser on the-most-interesting-fx-story-in-asia-is-now-korea-not-china Thanks Mark

Wonk

• Claudia Sahm on telling macro srories with micro  Thanks Mark
• twenty cent paradigm on evisiting-lehman Thanks Mark 
• Daniel Little on capitalism-as-heterogeneous-set-of-practices Thanks Mark 
• Croaking Cassandra on raising-the-inflation-target-in-2002
• Francis Woolley on the-green-door-choice-problem-with-lessons-for-undergraduate-education
• Sandwichman on the-outlaws-of-political-economy
• Simon Wren-Lewis on more-on-stock-flow-consistent-models , fiscal-rules-and-mmt, connecting-dots , voters-making-big-mistakes
• Coppolla comment  on austerity-and-rise-of-populism
• Timothy Taylor on union-density-and-collective-bargaining-coverage 
• Justin Fox on globalization-hits-a-wall Thanks Mark
• Mark Bellamare on restaurant tries third degree price diswcrimination Thanks Mark
• Murice Obfeldt on tariffs-do-more-harm-than-good-at-home
• Perry Mehrling on monetary-policy-in-a-post-crisis-world-beyond-the-taylor-rule Thanks Mark 
• Kruggers on tobin-was-right-implicitly-wonkish

General

• Rosemary Stanton on both-statins-and-a-mediterranean-style-diet-can-help-ward-off-heart-disease-and-stroke
• Doverbeach on angela-knobel-on-human-rights , hugh-mccann-on-the-question-does-gods-knowledge-eliminate-free-will
• Mathew Shepherd on to-a-modern-audience-othello-is-simply-another-story-of-domestic-abuse
• Idiot Tracker on trigger-warnings
• Tim Harford on can-trivia-help-us-to-be-less-ignorant-of-our-own-ignorance 
• various on why-the-miracle-on-the-hudson-in-the-new-movie-sully-was-no-crash-landing
• Mike Kimel on spotting-bs-as-a-mechanism-for-reaching-a-wide-range-of-conclusions-a-case-study
• Chris Dillow on when-newer-isnt-better
• Mark Elgar on what-are-the-attributes-needed-to-be-a-successful-sporting-leader
• Scapticlawyer on are-we-heading-towards-peak-globalisation-the-ages-of-trade-globalisation-and-it

Climate

• Arctic sea ice blog on piomas-september-2016
• moyhu on ncepncar-global-up-slightly , more-on-climate-feedback , big-rise-021c-in-surface-temperature-in-august
• real climate on an-update-on-mid-latitude-cyclones-and-climate-change
• Climate code red on unravelling-myth-of-carbon-budget-for-1.5C

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• in bayesian regressions it is easy to account for measurement error
• Garrison Keillor would be spinning
• brief decontextualised instances of colaughter
• the-new-quantitative-journalism
• research-lies-allegations-windpipe-update
• analysis-of-data-from-internet-polls
• its-not-about-normality-its-all-about-reality
• q-is-a-50-state-poll-as-good-as-50-state-polls-a-use-mister-p
• there-is-no-research-vacuum
• my-talk-at-warwick-england-230pm-thurs-15-sept
• Kaiser Fung on know-your-data-20-trust-and-distrust-in-our-surveillance-society

Genial Gave Giles (econometrics)

• spreadsheet-errors
• No Hesitations on inane-journal-impact-factors 

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• trains-and-apple-pie , google-and-growth
• Terry Slevin on one-in-five-tattoo-inks-in-australia-contain-carcinogenic-chemicals

Vox wonk

• consumer-heterogeneity-and-gains-trade
• structural-reforms-in-difficult-times
• early-globalisation-and-law-one-price
• true-costs-helicopter-money
• premarital-sex-ratios-and-household-saving-rates
• happiness-inequality-and-importance-trust
• europes-incompatible-political-trinities
• drivers-inequality-trade-versus-tax-rates
• retirement-age-reform-and-jobs-europes-lost-generation
• drivers-inequality-trade-versus-tax-rates
• public-investment-stimulus-spillovers-eurozone
• eu-regional-funding-when-party-over
• languages-and-gender-norms-behaviour
• measuring-institutional-investor-performance
• eu-regional-funding-when-party-over

25 years of growth

Yesterday was the 25th year of not having a recession. This is a remarkable achievement. It would not be happening if not for the highly successful stimulus the ALP Government had to counter the GFC.

We will probably best the Netherland's record next year.

We now have a substantial part of the population who have never experienced a recession.

In one of lifes great ironies it was only because of the public sector that GDP rose. State governments are spending on infrastructure quite a bit. We need it.

Wycliffe, the Night Manager

I was to to a friend who is way older than I and still working . We discovered we loved British police dramas.
He lent me his Wycliffe DVD set .
What a great series. the first episode was bad but after that I simply wanted to watch the whole set until it was finished. I think Jimmy Yuill steals the show as DI Kersey.
A couple of minor criticisms. Kersey is not in the last few episodes and that is a shame. Wycliffe's superior are always political operators.

Ronnie Barkers son was one of the detectives until he became a criminal!!

This series is highly recommended.


My oldest son got me to watch the Night Manager. He wanted to watch it because of Tom Hiddleston who is good but Hugh Laurie absolutely steals the show. He is the 'baddie' and Tom the 'goodie'

A word of warning however. this show is slow. very slow. It took me a long time to view it all because of this. I rarely was in the mood to watch it.
you nwil know reasnably soon whether you can go through all the episodes.

Chinese Investment, donations and Sam

There is a lot of confusion with regard to investment in Australia.
The government have made a number of decisions denying Chinese companies owing assets in Australia. they cited national interest but never told us why it was against the national interest.
They didn't tell us why it took therm so long to do this. Why such a decision when it is five minutes to midnight.

I suggest Australia compile a ;list like the USA and Europe of industries that foreign companies cannot invest in.

With regard to foreign donations I find it highly ironic that all the people railing against the money given to Sam Dastyeri voted against John Faulkner's reforms which would have made such payments illegal.
I am also wondering why it is okay for Julie bishop to get a truckful of money yet poor old Sam got just over $1600.

Lastly the calls for the resignation is predictable yet this donation was declared and not illegal.
I think Sam should resign but for being greedy and very very stupid.It is yet further evidence the NSW right has little idea of political strategy as we saw when they overthrew Kevin Rudd.

Off to bed now as I am feeling poorly.

update:

I should have added it gets very dangerous for senior government ministers making claims about alleged subterfuge between Chines entities and Sam.The only country who would lose if the Chines gets stroppy is Australia. Another example of a very poor political class

further update:

I saw Sam's press conference and it was a train wreck. Leigh Sales was absolutely merciless.Funny enough and i could be wrong but i think most of the air for this topic has gone but Sam has lost all credibility. That is no bad thing!

Around the Traps 2/9/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Quiggin on an-offer-he-cant-accept , adani-should-bow-out-gracefully-from-its-carmichael-coal-mine
• Rolf Gerritsen on disunity-is-death-the-demise-of-the-clp-government-in-the-northern-territory
• Morgan Saletta on the-plug-and-play-city-how-shipping-containers-are-changing-infrastructure
• Croaking Casandra on the badly dysfunctional NZ housing supply crisis , chile-undermining-the-nbr-editors-own-argument
• Greg Jericho on scott-morrisons-car-crash-logic-and-the-real-story-behind-the-taxed-nots , working-at-home-its-because-youve-got-too-much-to-do , blaming-labor-is-not-an-economic-plan-scott-morrison
• Greg Austin on the-australian-government-needs-to-be-more-open-about-the-cyber-threat-from-china
• various on section-18c-is-too-broad-and-too-vague-and-should-be-repealed
• Luke McNamara on explainer-what-is-section-18c-and-why-do-some-politicians-want-it-changed
• Ross Gittins on there-are-few-taxed-nots-apart-from-the-elderly . combatting-climate-change-lets-try-plan
• The Political sword on bring-out-your-debt
• John Fishetti on focusing-on-tests-and-invalid-assessments-is-the-wrong-way-to-measure-teacher-quality
• Sharon Friel on social-determinants-how-class-and-wealth-affect-our-health
• Peter Martin on how-government-rounded-on-newstart , capex-investment-outlook-worst-since-2010/11 . /tax-cuts-next-month-commissioner-buckles
• Barry McGaw on to-raise-status-of-teaching-australia-needs-to-lift-pay-and-cut-teacher-numbers
• Tamara Tulich on interactive-what-powers-does-asio-have-to-question-and-detain-terror-suspects
• Steve Wortnington on australian-small-businesses-could-be-stretched-by-changes-to-commercial-credit-cards
• Khalid Koser on Australian-leadership-needed-to-scale-the-refugee-summit

Northern America

• Carola Binder on the-fed-on-facebook
• Roger Farmer on why-the-fed-should-raise-interest-rates-at-its-next-meeting
• Timothy Taylor on snapshots-of-us-family-wealth , adam-smith-on-teaching-and-incentives
• Robert Waldmann on will-the-fed-be-able-to-respond-to-the-next-recession , premature-anti-republicanism
• Mike Kimel on top-marginal-tax-rates-and-real-economic-growth-part-2.
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-home-sales-in-july , real-prices-and-price-to-rent-ratio-in-June , public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-under-various-presidents
• Larry Summers on disappointed-by-what-came-out-of-jackson-hole Thanks Brad
• Narayana Kocherlakota on what-the-fed-chief-s-next-message-should-be , four-ways-to-reform-the-fed Thanks Brad
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-conservative-media-racism-business-insider
• Beverly Mann on washington-post-columnist-richard-cohen-gets-it-right-about-the-clinton-foundation-in-my-opinion
• Noah Smith on expand-the-best-program-to-fight-poverty , don-t-be-scared-of-a-health-insurance-public-option
• Lord Keynes on liberal-lies-about-americas-historical-immigration-policy
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-thoughts-ahead-of-the-employment-report
• Drew Altman on the-aca-marketplace-problems-in-context-and-why-they-dont-mean-obamacare-is-failing Thanks Mark
• Ben Bernanke on should-the-fed-keep-its-balance-sheet-large Thanks Mark
• Jeffrey Frankel on column-by-trump-adviser-is-not-economically-literate  Thanks Mark

Europe

• Kevin O'Rourke on if-you-think-this-anti-globalization-backlash-is-new-you-havent-been-paying-attention
• Simon Wren-Lewis on project-fear-we-have-had-it-with-experts , theresa-mays-brexit-choice
• Aidan Regan on the-european-commission-have-sparked-a-revolution-against-corporate-tax-avoidance

Asia

• Morris Jones on Chinas-quantum-satellite-Nothing-is-totally-secure
• Tim Johnston on Philippines-peace-proces-Duterte-playing-for-high-stakes
• Ian Parmenter on Where-the-Russian-intervention-in-Syria-is-headed
• Edward Cavaough on Instability-just-a-stroke-away-in-Central-Asia
• Brad Setser on the-2016-yuan-depreciation Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on books-to-help-you-understand-japan
• Huang Le Thu on Vietnam-and-Singapore-Working-together-to-keep-ASEAN-relevant
• Peter Cai on Why-India-distrusts-Chinas-One-Belt-One-Road-initiative

Wonk

• Paul Romer on md-to-lead-worldbank Thanks Mark 
• Wallis et al on Puncturing the Mathus delusion Thanks Brad
• Stephen Grenville on Jackson-Hole-truth-telling-Monetary-policy-cant-save-the-day-alone
• Chris Dillow on truthful-lies , on-incompetence
• Marc Bellamare on Development concepts
• Simon Wren-Lewis on heterodox-economics-mainstream-macro-and-the-financial-crisis , fiscal-rules-should-target-deficit-not-spending
• Roger Farmer on two-reason-why-death-matters
• Brad Setser on is-the-dirty-little-secret-of-fx-intervention-that-it-works , what-to-do-when-countries-with-fiscal-space-wont-use-it Thanks Mark
• Progrowth liberal on the-apple-structure-to-parking-profits-in-Bermuda
• Kruggers on chris-and-the-ricardianoids-wonkish
• Brad De Long on unpleasant-fiscal-dominance, has-macro-policy-been-different-since-2008 , must-read-john-quiggin-_after-neoliberalism-a-snippet_-the-failure-of-neoliberalism-the-greatest-challenge
• Croaking Cassandra on ethical-investment
• Nick Rowe on raising-the-inflation-target-vs-depreciating-paper-money-against-silicon-money , intertemporal-choice-for-universities
• Tim Harford on are-universities-worth-it
• Thomas Belsham on when-asset-managers-go-mad Thanks Mark
• A fine theorem on reinhard-selten-and-the-making-of-modern-game-theory Thanks Jim Rose
• Narayana Kocherlakota on want-a-free-market-abolish-cash Thanks Mark
• Carola Binder and Alex Rodrigues on full-employment/monetary-rules-and-targets-finding-the-best-path-to-full-employment Thanks Mark
• Hal Varian on intelligent technology Thanks Mark

General

• Doverbeach on dominic-legge-on-justice-and-human-law
• Hannah Wurf on World-Bank-IMF-and-ADB-leadership-The-long-wait-for-change
• Morris Jones on Did-ET-really-call-Probably-not 
• various on still-standing-how-an-ancient-clock-tower-survived-italys-deadly-earthquake
• David Wells on al-Adnanis-death-A-significant-but-not-crippling-loss-for-IS

Climate

• Alendra Jahn on guest-post-predictable-first-ice-free-arctic-summer Thanks Brad
• Greg Laden on who-is-responsible-for-most-climate-change
• David Appell on is-proxima-b-our-climate-refuge
• and Then Theres Physics on consensus-enforcers
• Tamino on trend-and-fluctuation-one-more-time
• Arctic sea ice blog on 2016-mega-dipole
• moyhu on climate-feedbacks-and-circuits
• variable variability on blair-trewin-journey-112-australian-weather-stations
• Franz Jotzo on the-climate-change-authoritys-gamble-on-political-pragmatism
• various on direct-action-not-as-motivating-as-carbon-tax-say-some-of-australias-biggest-emitters

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• oooh-it-burns-me-up
• birthdays and heat waves
• evaluating election forecasts
• publication-bias-occurs-within-as-well-as-between-projects
• graph-too-clever-by-half
• why 2016 is not like 1964 or 1972
• take that Bruno Frey
• a-discussion-of-weighting-and-regression-for-causal-inference
• two-weird-tricks-for-fast-conditional-autoregressive-models-in-stan
• Kaiser Fung on thank-you-buzzfeed-for-noticing-us-humans

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• september-reading , dummies-with-standardized-data
• No Hesitations on on-credible-cointegration-analyses

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• commoditised-services , being-enlightened , relax-be-happy , national-wellbeing
• Tim Harford on some-good-books
• Gregory Moore on you-say-tomato-why-some-fruits-are-forever-doomed-to-be-called-veggies
• Doverbeach on weekend-reading-23

Vox wonk

• economic-growth-stagnating-median-incomes-new-analysis
• article/oil-booms-leave-poor-dark
• spain-wake-crisis-reforms-versus-adjustment
• taxation-corruption-and-growth
• inequality-made-great-recession-worse-especially-poor
• investment-and-protectionism-pre-g20-summit-briefing
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• /brexit-economic-prosperity-and-voting-behaviour
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