Around the Traps 29/4/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Martin on federal-election-2016-malcolm-turnbull-out-on-a-limb-over-negative-gearing
• Jeff Borland on budget-explainer-why-is-australias-wage-growth-so-sluggish
• Various people on five-budget-myths-that-refuse-to-die
• Croaking Cassandra on some-perspectives-on-reform-and-the-rb-in-the-1980s , financial-capability-what-new-zealanders-could-do-with-from-their-governments , lessons-from-the-losers-reflections-on-little , the-treasury-on-lock-ups
• John Daley and Danielle Wood on hot-property
• Ross Gittins on an-independent-assessment-on-negative-gearing
• Kevin Bonham on how-many-lower-house-seats-can-xenophon-team-win
• The Kouk on how-many-lower-house-seats-can-xenophon , why-the-budget-deficit-should-be-largely-irrelevant , change-of-view-my-inflation-and-cash-rate-forecast-was-wrong-it-seems
• John Quiggin on defending-australian-institutions , what-do-australian-economists-think-about-policy , a-data-point-on-minimum-wages
• Philip Alpers on australias-gun-numbers-climb-men-who-own-several-buy-more-than-ever-before
• Marion Terrill and Brendan Coates on budget-explainer-does-australia-really-have-an-infrastructure-deficit
• Greg Jericho on how-negative-gearing-replaced-the-great-australian-dream-and-distorted-the-economy
• James Goldrick on why-does-australia-need-submarines-at-all
• Maris O'Sullivan on if-not-manus-then-what-possible-alternatives-for-asylum-seekers-and-refugees-in-png
• Thas Nirmalathas on how-high-speed-wireless-compares-to-cable-in-boosting-our-internet-speeds
• David Peetz on sorting-the-gems-from-the-dung-in-the-royal-commission-on-union-corruption

Northern America

• Noah Smith on policy-recommendations-and-wishful
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-march-new-home-sales
• Nick Rowe on fewer-fiscal-multipliers-and-more-clarity-from-the-bank-of-canada
• Carola Binder on presidential-candidates-and-fed
• David Andolfatto on interest-rates-and-aggregate-demand
• Robert Waldmann on the-us-suicide-rate-has-increased-markedly-over-the-past-8-years
• Narayana Kocherlokato on the-fed-s-inflation-fail , president-obama-s-economic-disappointment Thanks Mark 
• James Kwak on the-long-game Thanks Mark
• Progrowth liberal on could-higher-minimum-wage-increase-employment
• Robert Waldmann on the-usa-is-not-in-a-liquidity-trap-any-more
• Progrowth liberal on incidence-of-soda-tax
• James Hamilton on another-weak-quarter-for-u-s-gdp 
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-warning-hawkishness-ahead
• Peter Dorman on carbon-politics
• John Robertson on is-the-number-of-stay-at-home-dads-going-up-or-down
• Timothy Taylor on crime-and-incarceration-correlation

Europe

• Anton Howes on the-dutch-golden-age Thanks Mark
• Jared Ficklin on hillsborough-at-last-the-shameful-truth-is-out
• Chris Dillow on hillsborough-the-class-context , conservatives-against-conservatism , on-obliquity-neglect
• Simon Wren-Lewis on junior-doctors-asking-right-question , the-hypocrisy-of-british-politics
• Tim Harford on tata-steel-port-talbot-and-how-to-manage-industrial-decline
• Francesaco Saraceno on celebrate Thanks Mark
• Kruggers on when-europe-stumbled

Asia

• Jamers Goldrick on Will-Beijings-South-China-Sea-land-creation-lose-it-the-peace
• Ibtisam Ahamed on murder-of-lgbtq-editor-highlights-danger-facing-all-rational-voices-in-bangladesh
• Catherine Hirst on The-Taliban-three-years-after-Mullah-Omar

Wonk

• Noah Smith on baseline-models , free-market-probably-isn-t-what-s-making-you-sick
• Kruggers on economics-and-self-awareness
• Progrowth liberal on robert-lucas-keynesian , hysteresis-and-911
• James Hamilton on causes-and-consequences-of-the-oil-price-decline-of-2014-2015
• Chris Dillow on why-not-full-employment , on-multipliers
• Timothy Taylor on what-do-we-know-about-subsidized-employment-programs
• David Glasner on whats-wrong-with-monetarism
• Sandwichman on is-road-to-hell-paved-with-pareto-improvements
• Nick Gruen on were-all-free-riders--get-over-it-the-public-goods-of-the-twenty-first-century-part-one
• Narayana Kocherlakota on the-world-needs-more-u-s-government-debt Thanks Mark
• Stephen Grenville on Rethinking-economics-Cohen-and-De-Long
• John Quiggin on predistribution-wages-and-unions-extract-from-economics-in-two-lessons
• Simon Wren-Lewis on politicians-and-statistics
• Robert Shiller on listen-carefully-for-signs-of-the-next-global-recession Thanks Mark
• A Fine Theorem on yuliy-sannikov-and-the-continuous-time-approach-to-dynamic-contracting

General

• Sophis Lewis on farewell-peer-reviewing
• Coppolla comment on horror-story
• Lord Keynes on keynes-on-communism

Climate

• and Then There's Physics on the-tcr-to-ecs-ratio , matt-ridley-doesnt-understand-free-speech , climate-feedback
• Arctic sea ice blog on cryosat-2-confirms-sea-ice-volume-is-low
• Real climate on nenana-ice-classic-2016
• izen on mining-the-past
• various on great-barrier-reef-bleaching-would-be-almost-impossible-without-climate-change
• Critical Angle on consensus-on-consensus
• David Appell on what-is-trend-in-airborne-fraction-of-CO2
• Rob Honeycutt on  tracking-the-2c-limit--March 2016

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• risk-aversion-is-a-two-way-street
• fun-comments-at-the-sister-blog
• regression-modeling-using-a-convenience-sample
• 51-shades-of-gray
• integrating-graphs-into-your-workflow
• Gary Venter

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• Marc Bellamare on nothing comnpares to you

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• time-for-more-keynes , power-and-economics , the-world-of-yesterday
• Tim Harford on what-ive-been-reading-in-april
• Doverbeach on weekend-reading 

Vox wonk

• financial-regulation-not-yet-efficient-outcome
• patent-thickets-and-first-time-patenting-new-evidence
• new-products-during-bad-times
• new-products-during-bad-times
• /relative-age-effect-over-long-term
• measuring-people-s-expectations
• billion-prices-project
• building-common-fiscal-policy-eurozone
• long-run-effects-disruptive-peers
• safeguarding-euro-balancing-market-discipline-certainty
• new-ecb-macroprudential-bulletin
• well-being-and-economic-activity-after-boston-marathon-bombing
• protestant-reformation-economic-institutions-and-development
• how-rich-nations-benefit-eu-membership
• fighting-deflation-unconventional-fiscal-policy
• trade-costs-border-controls-schengen-area
• meta-analysis-economic-impact-brexit
• trade-costs-border-controls-schengen-area
• contaminated-water-and-mental-health-evidence-bangladesh
• global-banking-network-s-role-shock-transmission
• importance-better-eu-insolvency-regimes
• fiscal-policy-remains-critical-much-world-economy
• effects-aid-growth-quasi-experiment-evidence
• cross-border-resolution-regimes-game-theoretic-considerations
• economics-tpp-winners-and-losers

What does the CPI tells us?

The March CPI was released yesterday.It fell which is very unusual. We had deflation not inflation.
Deflation is usually occurs for one of two reasons.
1) Innovation makes lots of goods and services cheaper and you have strong economic growth.
2) The economy is weak and so is demand for goods and services.

most people would think 2) is more appropriate now than 1). however it would be at odds with the labour market for example. Thus policy makers are in a dilemma.
Some indicators show the economy needs to be jump started whilst others show the opposite. The RBA will be in a quandary next Tuesday.

Steve from Brisbane again remembers Sinclair Davidson infamous prediction of stagflation occurring in Australia..

I would make two observations on this. Davidson's informal model   when making this prediction was hopeless even allowing for the fact most people have stagflation being inflation and unemployment being if not then very close to double digits. We were not within cooee of that.

Davidson had no idea of how stagflation occurred in the 1970s. At that time we had a large supply side shock ( very high oil prices) and a highly regulated labour market. Neither of those two circumstances were in evidence when Davidson made his ludicrous prediction.
If only he was a economist!

The US election and the Fed.

Carola Binder has a typically very good article on the Presidential candidates and Fed accountability.

It is well worth a read!

The Mighty Mighty Wanderers

In the midst of the best ever A league season we had tow mighty semi-finals. Adelaide were superb in their demolition of Melbourne city.

HOWEVER the Wanderers were sublime in the 5-4 defeat of the roar.

What a game. What an atmosphere.The RBB were simply the best.
I did not want to leave.

Indeed the RBB are world class at installing the best atmosphere at football games.

now for the final in Adelaide.

Around the Traps 22/4/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Neville on balancing-the-budget-mantra-overlooks-benefits-of-infrastructure-spending
• Gerard De Valence on budget-explainer-the-problem-with-measuring-productivity
• Anna Olijnk on factcheck-does-asic-already-have-the-powers-of-a-royal-commission-and-more
• Roger Shanahan on Lebanon-fiasco-Television-network-fails-risk-management
• Croaking Cassandra on Housing: what can be done , china-and-new-zealand , ambivalance-about-expectations-of-the-board , questions-about-the-ocr-leak-the-inquiry-etc , should-household-debt-be-a-worry
• Mark the Ballot on newspoll-49-51
• The Kouk on election-facts-which-side-taxes-the-most , election-facts-government-debt , slice-of-good-fortune-to-boost-morrison-s-budget , election-fact-the-howard-government-was-committed-to-never-pay-off-government-debt
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-and-seat-betting-watch , some-recent-senate-polling-and-related-claims
• John Quiggin on a-royal-commission-to-end-all-royal-commissions
• Harry Clarke on chinese-land-purchases-are-against-australias-interests
• Rachel ong and Gavin Wood on turnbull-should-help-the-states-switch-stamp-duty-for-land-tax
• Ross Gittins on why-banks-activities-should-be-restrained
• Sarah Kaine on the-state-of-the-union-s-how-a-perfect-storm-weakened-the-workers-voices
• Peter Whiteford on ideas-for-australia-welfare-reform-needs-to-be-about-improving-well-being-not-punishing-the-poor
• Ian McAuley on how-the-deficit-obsession-is-eroding-the-budgets-usefulness
• Hugh White on Turnbulls-trip-to-China-A-dereliction-of-duty
• Andrew Elder on mummies-and-daddies
• Amy Auster on stronger-role-for-ombudsman-is-the-key-to-protecting-bank-customers
• Graham Maguire and Brigid Robson on aboriginal-maori-how-indigenous-health-suffers-on-both-sides-of-the-ditch
• Greg Jericho on rental-affordability-owning-a-home-is-a-fantasy-if-you-cant-afford-to-rent-one
• Sarantis Tsiaplias on budget-explainer-the-structural-deficit-and-what-it-means
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-governor-glenn-stevens-drops-the-ball
• Marc Scott on the-battle-for-audiences-as-free-tv-viewing-continues-its-decline

Northern America

• Peter Dorman on the-saudi-threat-to-dump-treasuries
• Calculated risk on comments-on-march-housing-starts , a-few-comments-on-march-existing-home-sales
• Jared Bernstein on a-graphical-assault-on-supply-side-tax-cuts  Thanks Mark
• Timothy Taylor on mexico-to-us-border-apprehensions-and-immigration-fall
• Robert Solow on the-future-of-work-why-wages-aren-t-keeping-up Thanks Mark
• Kruggers on nomentum-and-the-vindication-of-political-science
• James Kwak on cultural-capture-in-black-and-white  Thanks Mark

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on in-defence-of-george-osborne-over-brexit
• Tim Harford on three-pieces-of-brexit-bullshit
• Coppolla comment on the-building-society-broken-by-its-accountants
• Tony Yates on hmt-the-shock-of-brexit-and-the-mix-of-policy-at-the-zero-bound
• Andreas Nolke on long-term-causes-eurozone-crisis  Thanks Mark
• Mathew Ryan on betrayal-and-guilt-past-and-future-collide-in-easter-rising-commemorations
• Kenneth Chambaere on separating-fact-from-fiction-about-euthanasia-in-belgium
• Menzie Chinn on charles-wyplosz-on-the-eurozone-crises
• Kruggers on boris-is-bad-enough

Asia

• Sean Dorney on PNGs-PM-police-and-fraud-squad-star-in-stranger-than-fiction-saga
• Hayder al-Khoie on The-Middle-East-Beyond-the-sectarian-divide
• Peter Cai on Taiwans-new-foreign-minister-David-Lee-Right-man-for-a-tough-job , Chinas-doves-break-cover-to-voice-criticise-foreign-policy
• Saskia Wieringa on how-should-indonesia-resolve-atrocities-of-the-1965-66-anti-communist-purge
• Danielle Cave on Twitters-China-Story
• Tasmiah Rahman on we-are-tonu-why-has-murder-of-19-year-old-student-sparked-mass-protests-in-bangladesh

Wonk

• Stephen Grenville on IMF-doesnt-need-a-bigger-empire-to-operate-a-better-safety-net
• Simon Wren-Lewis on its-ideology-stupid , explaining-last-ten-years , some-thoughts-on-paul-masons-mcdonnell-roadshow-talk
• Stephen Kinsella on macrofinancial-history-and-the-new-business-cycle-facts
• Timothy Taylor on putting-drug-policy-tradeoffs-on-table , the-economics-of-noncompete-contracts , the-spartan-doctrine-of-laissez-faire
• Francesco Saraceno on the-sin-of-central-bankers  Thanks Mark
• James Hamilton on a-financial-hockey-stick
• Chris Dillow on limits-of-marginal-productivity-theory
• Noah Smith on noncompete-clauses-will-make-your-economy-sick
• David Andolfatto on interest-rates-and-aggregate-demand
• Kids prefer cheese on the-problem-with-macro-in-one-blogpost
• Ross Gittins on how-behavioural-economics-got-started

General

• Mark Quigley and Mike Sandiford on are-the-japanese-and-ecuador-earthquakes-related
• Camilla Nelson on first-sentences-establish-a-contract-with-the-reader-about-what-is-to-come
• David Andolfatto on how-old-were-inventors-of-major-inventions
• Vanessa Smith on why-charlotte-bronte-still-speaks-to-us-200-years-after-her-birth
• Joanna Harnett on weekly-dose-st-johns-wort-the-flower-that-can-treat-depression
• Colin Yeo on suppd-full-with-horrors-400-years-of-shakespearean-supernaturalism
• Meriden Varrall on It-takes-two-to-Thucydides
• Rebecca Sheehan on Prince-an-elusive-virtuoso-who-embraced-ambiguity-and-female-desire
• Liam Viney on prince-a-pop-chameleon-whose-music-contained-multitudes
• Mark Pollard on princes-passing-bookends-another-chapter-in-the-history-of-music

Climate

• Hugh Saddler on australias-carbon-emissions-and-electricity-demand-are-growing-heres-why
• And then theres physics on time-dependent-feedbacks , we-can-never-know-anything
• Mohyu on noaa-global-index-still-rising-new-record , averaging-temperature-data-improves-accuracy
• David appell on why-suns-irradiance-recently-dipped
• Arctic sea ice blog on meanwhile-on-the-other-side
• Tamino on the-big-3-co2-ch4-n2o
• Ian Parry on countries-are-signing-up-for-sizeable-carbon-prices Thanks Jim Rose
• David Roberts on price-on-carbon-fine Thanks Mark

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• a-short-answer-to-a-short-question
• dg-xxxvii-lumosity-fined-2-million-for-deceiving-customers-about-its-brain-training-programs
• if you add a few more variables
• cancer-research-is-broken
• a-new-idea-for-a-science-core-course-based-entirely-on-computer-simulation
• stochastic-natural-gradient-ep
• /what-is-the-true-prior-distribution-a-hard-nosed-answer
• Kaiser Fung on three-ethical-viewpoints-applied-to-the-clinton-email-scandal
• Tim Harford on how-politicians-poisoned-statistics

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• No Hesitations on on-real-time-gdp-war

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• think-yourself-lucky

Vox wonk

• japan-s-ageing-population-and-welfare-reform
• issues-ecb-s-new-tltro-ii-policy
• technology-and-unemployment-evidence-great-depression
• air-pollution-and-infant-health
• global-crisis-us-vs-eurozone-banks-and-monetary-policy
• us-wealth-inequality-quantifying-driving-factors
• effect-daily-violence-infant-health-evidence-brazil
• gains-trade-and-openness-1830-2014
• effect-daily-violence-infant-health-evidence-brazil
• impact-female-jurors-criminal-convictions
• us-banks-behaviour-and-bond-issues-after-lehman-s-fall
• immigration-and-voting-evidence-italian-municipalities
• measuring-quality-jobs-oecd-countries
• how-inheritances-influence-wealth-inequality
• household-debt-and-transmission-monetary-policy
• fast-exchange-rate-pass-through
• rethinking-war-drugs-insights-us-and-mexico
• http:/towards-fiscal-union-eurozone
• financial-regulation-not-yet-efficient-outcome
• university-innovation-and-professor-s-privilege

poll update

First of all I have been quite busy of late so limited writings.More of that later perhaps

However this must be talked about. Naturally Kevin Bonham is a must read.As is Mark the Ballot

The libs would still win but there would be no joint sitting!!

A few points on the polls.

• People like Malcolm when he was above the fray both as Opposition leader and now as PM. They decidedly get less impressed when he gets down and dirty into politics. They do not like Abbott impersonations!  This is not the biggest thing in his slide but it is relevant.
• I see Essential have Chris Bowen beating Scott Morrison as who the public would like as Treasurer. He does not appear to be on top of his portfolio nor does he appear different to when he fronted up as Immigration minister.Bluster does not get you far as a Treasurer. No more thoughts od Scott as a potential leader now.
• Those on the 'right' do not like Turnbull at all and treat him almost as the Leader of the ALP. Whether it be Andrew Bolt , Alan Jones et al. A Liberal loss would boost their 'significance'!

I should have added three more things

1.  These polls have been conducted when people know there will be a July 2 election
2.  Political strategists hate winter polls. If the day is cold and even rainy they think it exacerbates swings against the government Ye they are superstitious!
3. A long campaign is not good for governments. Think Bob Hawke and 1984. Can Turnbull do better than Hawke and can his team learn from it?

Around the Traps 15/4/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Quiggin on a-deliberative-parliament , the-oz-makes-the-case-for-higher-taxes , ideas-for-australia-lets-retire-the-idea-that-australia-depends-on-digging-up-coal-and-other-resources , cruising-for-a-bruising
• Tony Triffitt on tony-abbotts-great-big-budget-legacy
• Miranda Stewart on five-ideas-to-help-fix-australias-tax-system
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-and-seat-betting-watch
• Glyn Davis on investing-in-big-data-could-improve-research-quality-in-australia
• Croaking Cassandra on advisory-votes-on-ocr-decisions , the-ocr-leak ,the-ocr-leak-some-more-thoughts
• The Kouk on biizarre-tax-debate-not-about-economics , has-the-economy-stalled , house-prices-what-the-rba-thinks , what-surging-commodity-prices-mean-for-the-aussie-economy
• Michael Quinlan on factcheck-do-better-pay-rates-for-truck-drivers-improve-safety
• Lousie Thornwaite on controversial-history-of-road-safety-tribunal-shows-minimum-pay-was-doomed-from-the-start
• Anil Hargovan on was-clive-palmer-a-shadow-director-of-queensland-nickel
• John Daley on why-the-alp-was-right-to-ignore-bad-modelling-on-negative-gearing 
• David Walker on realism-about-high-speed-rail
• Ken Parish on i-dont-care-who-wins-the-federal-election
• Greg Jericho on education-ministers-hecs-gaffe-forgivable-as-long-as-he-doesnt-forget-rising-tide-of-debt
• Fergus Hanson on Australias-new-cyber-strategy-leaked-Catching-up-rather-than-out-front
• Anthony Forsyth on explainer-what-are-the-abcc-and-registered-organisations-bills
• Peter Christoff on ideas-for-australia-a-six-point-plan-for-getting-climate-policy-back-on-track
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-spending-away-australias-triple-a-away
• Mark the Ballot on reachtel-at-50-50

Northern America

• Narayana Kocherlakota on how-to-make-the-fed-work-better , fed-reform-should-focus-on-the-economy Thanks Mark
• Mike Kimel on the-gender-gap-in-pay-and-hours-worked
• Kruggers on the-obamacare-replacement-mirage
• Larry D Wall on putting-the-metlife-decision-into-an-economic-context
• James Kwak on hamilton-everywhere-all-the-time Thanks Mark
• Timothy Taylor on the-relationship-between-household-worth-and-personal-savings
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-threat-to-us-global-leadership
• John Robertson and Ellyn Terry on labor-force-participation-aging-is-only-half-of-the-story
• Brad De Long on im-not-the-only-one-seeking-a-new-path-forward-on-trade-jared-bernstein-on-the-economy

Europe

• Chris Dillow on against-resign-cameron
• Francesco Saraseno on resilience-not-yet  , convergence-no-moreThanks Mark
• David Wells on Post-Brussels-does-Europe-need-a-new-intelligence-agency
• Barry Eichengreen on brexit-alarm-popular-frustration
• Simon Wren-Lewis on the-eu-referendum-and-media
• Coppolla comment on germanys-negative-rates-trap

Asia

• Henrik Paulsson on Air-power-in-the-South-China-Sea-Vietnam-Malaysia-and-the-Philippines
• Tao Zha on the-rise-of-shadow-banking-in-china
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-bank-of-japan-does-not-intervene-in-fx-these-days
• Henry Paulsson on Air-power-in-the-South-China-Sea-Vietnam-Malaysia-and-the-Philippines
• Grant Newsham on Note-to-Washington-Enjoy-Abe-while-you-have-him
• Bala Ramasamy on why-china-could-never-sign-on-to-the-trans-pacific-partnership
• Marie-Alice McLean-Dreyfuss on Is-history-repeating-itself-with-Beijings-great-wall-of-sand-in-the-South-China-Sea
• Anthony Bubalo on Middle-East-turmoil-through-Indonesian-eyes

Wonk

• Croaking Cassandra on deposit-insurance
• James Hamilton on why-no-economic-boost-from-lower-oil-prices
• Simon Wren-Lewis on can-central-banks-make-3-major-mistakes-and-stay-independent , central-bank-mistakes-more-on-count-2
• Tony Yates on simon-wren-lewis-on-central-bank-independence , everyone-has-their-own-monetarism , 
• Noah Smith on astrologers-and-macroeconomists
• Nick Rowe on designing-a-basic-income-experiment , on-central-bank-lending-to-government , neo-fisherian-microfoundations-with-non-binding-price-ceilings-and-floors
• Timothy Taylor on all-job-growth-is-in-alternative-jobs , saving-global-fisheries-with-property-rights
• Brad De Long on yes-in-some-many-ways-our-macro-debate-has-lost-intellectual-ground-since-the-1930s-why-do-you-ask , the-disappearance-of-monetarism , bound-by-the-world-order-in-which-he-lived-gavin-kennedy-on-why-adam-smith-was-a-realist-not-an-ideologue-simply-challenged
• Chris Dillow on trapped-by-wealth , for-an-inheritance-tax , over-estimating-neoliberialisml
• Fillino Occino on central-bank-lending-in-a-liquidity-crisis Thanks Mark
• Dani Rodrik on progressive-trade-logic Thanks Mark
• David Glasner on whats-so-bad-about-the-gold-standard , benjamin-cole-remembers-richard-nixon-of-blessed-memory
• Kruggers on is-cheap-oil-contractionary , the-return-of-elasticity-pessimism-wonkish
• Eric Lonergan on helicopter-drops-a-brief-reply-to-ben-bernanke

General

• Kevin Netto on health-check-does-sex-count-as-exercise
• Scepticlawyer on westerners-have-moral-agency-muslims-have-excuses
• John Quiggin on peabodys-bankruptcy-claim-is-a-symbol-of-coals-end
• Lord Keynes on what-turing-meant-by-human-computer
• Enrico Barnadio on led-zeppelin-plagiarism-claims-and-why-we-should-be-worried-about-the-future-of-music
• Timothy Taylor on putting-drug-policy-tradeoffs-on-table

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on climate-targets , consensus-on-consensus
• Robert McSweeney on factcheck-are-climate-models-wrong-on-rainfall-extremes
• Gavin Schmidt on the-volcano-gambit
• Aimee Slangen and John Church on burning-fossil-fuels-is-responsible-for-most-sea-level-rise-since-1970
• Colin Maessen on devastating-reply-richard-tols-nonsensus-peer-reviewed-journal
• Arctic Sea Ice blog on greenland-under-early-pressure-tool
• John Cook on consensus-confirmed-over-90-of-climate-scientists-believe-were-causing-global-warming
• Tamino on march-madness
• John Abraham on el-nino-heat-rechargeable-battery

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• should-i-be-upset-that-the-nyt-credulously-reviewed-a-book-promoting-iffy-science
• GIGO
• Why I do not believe Fergus Simpson's big alien theory
• bayesian-umpires-the-coolest-sports-statistics-idea-since-the-hot-hand
• on-change-point-model-with-clever-forward-backward-encoding
• avoiding-model-selection-in-bayesian-social-research
• Kaiser Fung on myths-of-data-science-and-analytics

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• improved-analytic-bias-correction-for-MLEs
• no hesitations on on-reading-human-capital-approach-to-inference , big-data-tall-wide-and-dense
• Marc Bellamare on robustness checks or data mining

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• managing-assets-well-is-better-than-managing-them-badly , century-city , coase-cars-cities
• Doverbeach on weekend-reading
• The Market Monetarist on recommend-reading-for-aspiring-market-monetarists  Thanks Jim Rose

Vox wonk

• fixed-term-contracts-and-jobs-low-skilled-youths
• fixing-sovereignless-currency
• two-views-ez-crisis-government-failure-vs-market-failure
• deterrence-eu-merger-policy
• eurozone-s-zeno-paradox-and-how-solve-it
• regulation-blame-england-s-surging-house-prices
• business-uncertainty-and-investment
• marshall-was-wrong-nothing-air
• demand-decomposition-trade-quality-and-taste
• financial-deregulation-and-income-inequality
• why-cheap-oil-fails-boost-global-economy-imf-view
• helicopter-money-views-leading-economists
• how-break-links-housing-banking-and-business-cycles
• ecb-can-make-difference-if-deeds-match-words
• financial-cycles-labour-misallocation-and-economic-stagnation

A Royal Commission into the Banks

A Royal Commission into the banks is great politics.

Everyone has a tale about the bastardtry of the banks with regard to deposits. loans, insurance or financial advice.
A Royal Commission would show all and sundry how tardy the Banks have been with regard to their services and how over-paid their executives have been as well. It would also show how poor they have been at their jobs!
Moreover it is apolitical. It is not a witch hunt to get at one side of politics as Tony Abbott did on not one but two occasions.

Bill Shorten has handled this superbly. His confidence is definitely on the rise. Turnbull on the other hand is made to look an apologist for the banks showing yet again his political judgement is questionable. His only positive is at this stage his judgement is nowhere near as bad as Abbott's was.

Around the Traps 8/1/16

It is time for Around the Traps again

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ken Parish on resurrection-of-the-history-wars , malcolms-big-idea-vft-infrastructure-pm , the-need-for-internet-speed
• Andrew Elder on heave-away-haul-away , some-sort-of-difference
• Mark the Ballot on updated-aggregation
• Peter Brent on hanging-off-newspoll
• Croaking Cassandra on uruguay-one-more-angle-on-our-dire-long-term-economic-performance , productivity-where-do-we-now-stand , kiwibank-a-retrograde-step , the-reserve-bank-on-immigration-and-the-labour-market
• Antony Green on a-few-thoughts-on-this-mornings-newpoll , the-turnbull-governments-senate-position-would-be-little-better-after-a-double-dissolution
• Greg Jericho on working-past-retirement-age-for-generation-x-putting-the-feet-up-seems-a-distant-dream , interest-rate-cuts-talk-is-cheap
• Greg Raymond on Missing-in-action-The-long-analytical-view-of-Australias-security-defence-and-military-affairs
• Who crashed the economy on lets-put-politics-aside-its-time-to-fix-the-nbn
• Paul Budde on nbn-company-needs-support-to-pursue-fttdp
• Stacey Cox and Megan O'Connell on if-not-gonski-funding-then-what
• Nick Gruen on reserve-banks-homer-simpson-timing-of-its-board-meetings-comes-under-fire-shock
• Marion Terrill and Owain Elsie on flawed-gst-system-skews-state-transport-projects
• Sally Weller on a-grim-future-for-arrium-ford-and-queensland-nickel-workers
• Nick Gruen on forecasting-the-open-road-ahead
• Pat McConnell on /bbsw-too-dumb-to-understand Thanks Steve from Brisbane
• Roy Green and John Hamilton Howard on arriums-collapse-shows-australia-must-get-a-lot-smarter-about-steel
• Ad astra on the-calamitous-abbott-lies-in-wait

Northern America

• Timothy Taylor on context-on-corporate-profits
• John Robertson and Ellyn Terrey on which-wage-growth-measure-best-indicates-slack-in-the-labor-market
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-fed-has-little-reason-to-hike-rates , fed-watch-dovish-minutes
• Noah Smith on low-skilled-immigrants-are-good-for-the-working-class
• Narayana Kocherlakota on who-s-responsible-for-the-next-crisis , the-fed-should-lower-interest-rates Thanks Mark 
• Charles Evans on implications-slow-growth-monetary-policy Thanks Mark

Europe

• Coppolla comment on a-three-point-plan-to-avert-disaster-in-Euro-area
• Sem Febrici on Six-ways-the-EU-is-fighting-terrorism-and-managing-migration
• Hussein Nadim on Why-do-they-hate-us
• Chris Dillow on over-estimating-osborne
• Mathew Dal Santo on Two-years-after-Euromaidan-Ukraine-is-faction-ridden-and-the-economy-is-wilting

Asia

• Anthony Bubalo on The-Middle-East-in-2016-(part-7)-Australian-policy
• Sam Roggeveen on The-China-crackdown-Shaping-opinion-at-home-and-abroad
• Roger Shanahan on Gulf-states-are-getting-even-with-Hizbullah-despite-the-cost

Wonk

• James Hamilton on productivity-gains-in-u-s-shale-oil
• Brad De Long on monday-smackdown-robert-waldmann-marks-brad-delongs-beliefs-about-the-return-of-depression-economics-to-market , citi-global-economy-panel-2016-03-09
• Kruggers on aggregate-supply-and-depression-economics-wonkish
• Simon Wren-Lewis on port-talbot-and-neoliberalism , the-financial-crisis-austerity-and-the-drift -from-the-centre
• Nick Rowe on helicopter-money-is-permanent , helicopter-bonds-as-qualitative-easing
• Tim Harford on trump-trade-and-the-china-shock
• Noah Smith on econ-hordes-conquer-pillage-burn , growing-a-nation-won-t-always-grow-its-economy , 101ism-in-action-minimum-wage-edition_9
• Sandwichman on zero-sum-foolery-4-of-4-wage-prisoners-dilemmal
• Coppolla comment on bond-yields-and-helicopters
• Timothy Taylor on the-exam-timedead-grandmother-syndrome , what-is-good-job global-capital-flows-why-no-crisis-so-far-this-time
• Brad De Long on must-read-miles-kimball-Density is destiny
• Nick Gruen on /evidence-based-policy-making-part-one-the-problems
• David Beckworth on the-safe-asset-problem-is-back-negative-interest-rate edition
• Chris Dillow on incentives-as-ideology
• Lord Keynes on carl-menger-on-origin-of-money-in-his-1909-article-Geld
• Eric Lonergan on the-distinction-between-monetary-and-fiscal-policy , is-it-permanent-a-reply-to-nick-rowe no-expectations
• Reid Wilson and H Luke Shaefer on Employment-Losses-Seattle  Thanks Mark
• Peter Dorman on how-long-before-you-have-to-order-a-refill-for-the-Keynes-dayplannerl
• John Quiggin on gaps-and-holes
• Tristram Sainbury on The-global-financial-safety-net-needs-fixing

General

• Paul Lashmar on panama-papers-remarkable-global-media-operation-holds-rich-and-powerful-to-account
• Tristan Sainsbury on Panama-Papers-show-international-efforts-to-tackle-dirty-money-have-lacked-oomph
• John Taylor on panama-papers-information-sharing-could-bust-open-secretive-companies-in-tax-havens
• Fiona Haines on panama-papers-dodgy-middlemen-are-nothing-new-as-our-own-tax-scandals-show
• Chris Dillow on tories-communists
• James Morley on the-idea-that-conservatives-are-better-economic-managers-simply-does-not-stand-up
• Tim Harford on delusions-of-objectivity
• Kishan Ranan  on A-diplomatic-necessity-Why-embassies-persist-in-the-digital-age
• Mathew Dal Santo on Russias-success-in-Syria-signals-an-emerging-multipolar-world-order

Climate

• and Then There's Physics on on-transparency , ecs-too-low
• Arctic sea ice blog on winter-analysis-addendum , piomas-april-2016
• Tamino on new-rss-and-balloons , heat-and-drought , data-abuse
• hotwhopper on lower-troposphere-temperatures-march-2016
• Robert Stavins on the-future-role-of-economics-in-the-ipcc Thanks Mark
• Morgan Pratchett and Megan Lough on coral-bleaching-taskforce-more-than-1-000-km-of-the-great-barrier-reef-has-bleached
• Greg Laden on new-climate-study-is-frenemy-of-climate-science-driven-policy
• Ricky Rood on no-way-to-slow-down-silence-howling-in-antarctica
• Mohyu on surface-templs-down-0086-in-march-still-second-hottest
• Timothy Taylor on the-eu-carbon-trading-market-decade-of-experience
• Stephane Boyer on climate-change-threatens-entire-ecosystems-lets-pick-them-up-and-move-them

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• himmicanes-and-hurricanes-update
• A strong anvil need not fear a hammermmer
• Type S errors in use
• selection-bias-or-some-things-are-better-off-left-unsaid
• gay-persuasion-update
• john-yoo-blogging
• The theory of the leisure class on p-value-skirmishes Thanks Mark
• Narayana Kocherlakota on how-to-pick-your-p-value Thanks Mark

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• Dianne Coyle on doing-macroeconometrics

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• incoming-disruption , better-than-karl-polanyi ,the-great-escape doing-macroeconometrics
• The Piping Shrike on book-review-niki-savvas-road-to-ruin
• Simon Wren-Lewis on chronicles-by-thomas-piketty

Vox wonk

• impact-mandatory-military-conscription-crime-and-labour-market
• entrepreneurship-contagion-evidence-italy
• returns-german-savings-invested-abroad
• economic-consequences-brexit
• returns-german-savings-invested-abroad
• government-intervention-reduces-banking-globalisation
• does-violence-breed-violence-evidence-asylum-seekers-switzerland
• effectiveness-place-based-policies-uk-evidence
• fixed-term-contracts-and-jobs-low-skilled-youths
• ideas-lloyd-shapley

Turnbull and Newspoll

Well the collective 'conservative' hounds have been barking loudly since the Newspoll came out.

Here is Antony Green helpfully to assist us understand it.

Note this please " This is the Coalition's worst Newspoll result since Malcolm Turnbull became leader. Alternatively, it is a better result for the Coalition than achieved through almost eighteen months of Tony Abbott as Prime Minister."

Well I didn't read that anywhere else. Probably because people such as Steve Kates, Andrew Bolt , Alan Jones are innumerate.
the Liberals were gone to gowings with Abbott. They have an actual chance with turnbull.

Here is Antony on the possible implications of a double dissolution.

On a related issue Michaelia Cash  dresses like she is from Vaucluse and talks like she comes from Mt Druiitt!!!!

things from attempting to be on Jury Duty

Parramatta court is way different to downing street.
Whereas I was simply part of the large anglo saxon brew there I stood out like the proverbial shag on a rock at Parramatta where most appeared to come from the western suburbs.

first case was where an African immigrant was accused of dealing drugs.

I was one of three that were challenged by the defence.  All three were understandable. One was a young lady who had tied to get excused because her boss would want her to work after this case.
another was a patently middle class middle manager who has been to University and who probably had kids. As I said I was an ageing middle class white Anglo Saxon male.

I was the last called and I told the man next to me who would be challenged. After we went back to the big room and I told him my reasons he though it was so easy he wondered why he hadn't thought of it.

The second trial was dreadful. A man accused of terrible things with his own kids less than ten. About 15 people was allowed by the judge to be excused from the case. I was called again . This time the crown challenged two people as did the defence. I had great relief when the Defence counsel challenged me as I anticipated.  I did not understand the challenges to the other three.

The odd bit from the day was I wanted Channel 9 taken off the screens from the ;large room all potential jurors were on. Ellen was on and Simply said it was TV for morons.
They said they could not do that. I then proposed they turn off two screens in the corner so people could have some silence whilst they read or do work on their laptops etc.
They said they could not do that either.

Postscript:

I should have said but didn't I doubt very much whether I will ever serve on a jury in Parramatta court. I will if in downing Street.

Jury Duty

I am on Jury duty today.

If my number comes up I am told the case could go for 4 weeks so it maybe limited blogging for a while although my number may not come up.
I will still do Around the Traps no matter what. It just means I will get to bed late each night if my number does come up.

Just for people who have not served before you get a notice telling you you are to go to a certain court to serve on a jury.

When you get there you are given a number. If your number comes up and there are no objections you serve on the jury. I have done this once before.I do remember as I was umpiring at the time at Epping oval and another juror lived at North Epping and saw me!

Women in sport

I see where some of the women in the Female US football team are suing for 'equal pay'. This follows on female tennis players getting more money and the Matildas wanting equal money with the Socceroos.

Let us hang on a minute. Equal pay is for equal work. A female gets the same pay as me for doing the same job.
Female tennis players do not do the same job. In fact NO female sportswomen does equal pay for the same job as they only play against women. They never play against men or even play in the same team as men.

I remember working with as person win the financial markets who played tennis once. He got through several rounds of the Australian open.He told me that Martina Navratilova regularly gotten beaten in practice by unknown males in her heyday way down in Texas

The greatest female squash player of all time regularly got beaten in the MALE competition in Sydney.  How many games do you think Serena Williams would win if all tennis competitions were open to ALL comers??

It is politically incorrect to say so but female sport mostly is inferior to male sport.It is patently false to equate different pay for female sportswomen to equal pay for equal work!