Around the Traps 1/8/14

It is time for Around the Traps again.
Will update on the week-end.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Greg Jericho on un-scores-australia-high-for-quality-of-life-but-low-on-climate-change-progress , business-leaders-should-stop-whinging-about-australias-competitiveness
• Peter Martin on red-tape-you-aint-seen-nothing-yet
• Mumble on its_there_but_you_have_to_look_closely , newspoll_satisfaction_increases , and_largest_satisfaction_drops
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-small-bounce-deeper-issues
• The Kouk on will-work-for-the-dole-increase-unemployment , credit-growth-zooms-to-six-year-high-as-the-terms-of-trade-slump
• Jim Rose on the-politics-of-ethnicity-based-research-in-new-zealand , how-flexible-is-the-new-zealand-labour-market
• Andrew Elder on capability-decency-and-abbott-government
• The Piping Shrike on disaster-politics
• Max Chalmers on dept-tried-cover-harm-against-children-detention-inquiry-hears 
• John Quiggin on job-search-yet-again

Northern America

• Maggie Mahar on border-crisis-fictions-v-facts-part-2-of-children-from-central-america
• Kruggers on inflation-ocd
• Mark Thoma gives us presidents-and-the-us-economy-an-econometric-exploration
• Menzie Chinn on new-classical-kansas , the-employment-and-gdp-releases
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-fomc-statement , fed-watch-on-that-eci-number , fed-watch-july-employment-report
• James Hamilton on finally-some-economic-growth 
• Peter Dorman on figuring-out-inflation-vigilantes
• Menzie Chinn gives us guest-contribution-how-janet-yellen-might-have-responded-to-the-policy-rules-legislation
• Noah Smith on paul-ryans-poverty-plan-signals-an-ideological-shift

Europe

• Chris Dillow on wages-profits , the-productivity-silence
• David Beckworth on the-other-important-legacy-of-world-war-one Thanks Brad
• Simon Wren-Lewis on uk-fiscal-policy-from-2015-with-shocks , how-to-muddy-waters-on-impact-of-austerity

Asia

• James Hamilton on chinas-financial-risk
• Edward Lambert on real-wages-weak-in-japan

Wonk

• Mark Thoma gives us Brad De Long on monetarist-keynesian-and-minskyite-depressions-once-again 
• John Quiggin on austrian-economics-and-flat-earth-geography
• Lord Keynes on john-quiggin-on-apriorism-in-austrian-economics
• David Glasner on how-to-think-about-own-rates-of-interest
• Simon Wren-Lewis on understanding-fiscal-stimulus-can-be-easy , if-minimum-wages-why-not-maximum-wages , methodological-seduction , us-savings-behaviour-and-empirical-research-strategies
• Chris Dillow on unobservables-in-economics
• Nick Rowe on when-is-helicopter-money-optimal
• Edward Lambert on profits-maximising-at-the-effective-demand-level
• noah smith on un-diversification-king-of-investor-biases

General

• Jim Rose on will-work-for-the-dole-work-in-australia , offsetting-behaviour-alert-school-breakfast-programmes , lessons-from-field-trials-with-work-mandates
• Nick Rowe on on-not-quite-getting-lloyd-metzler
• Tim Harford on what-tech-jerks-can-teach-us , why-tax-systems-are-trickier-than-martian-algebra
• Brad De Long on obedience-embracing-normalcy-and-failure-ariel-rubenstein-on-the-bombs-and-the-missiles-live-from-tel-aviv-university
• Corey Robin on the-higher-sociopathy
• Paul Rodgers on israel-vs-hamas-the-flawed-assumptions
• Noah Smith on holey-poverty-batman , schiff-vs-shedlock-great-austrian-macrotainer-smackdown
• Stephen Gordon on minwage-youth
• Chris Dillow on the-economic-base-of-virtue
• Gerry Jackson on how-government-spending-levels-hurt-real-wages-and-the-standard-of-living
• Simon Wren-Lewis on what-are-academics-good-for 
• Menzie Chinn on anti-intellectualism-in-american-blogging
• John Quiggin on to-help-poor-people-give-them-money

Climate

• Menzie Chinn on the-costs-of-delaying-action-to-stem-climate-change
• Rabette run on the-kzinti-lesson
• the Science of Doom om natural-variability-and-chaos-two-lorenz-1963
• Rick Piltz on what-to-do-about-the-social-cost-of-carbon-metric-part , what-to-do-about-the-social-cost-of-carbon-metric-part-2
• Climate change national forum on how-hot-is-it-going-to-get-and-how-fast-a-chat-with-scott-denning-on-climate-sensitivity
• Mark Thoma gives us Robert Frank on shattering-myths-to-help-the-climate 

Andrew Gelman ( Mostly Stats)

• a- linguist-has-a-question-about-sampling
• naive-statistical-analyses-send-innocent-man-jail
• statistics-and-data-science-again
• health-policy-innovation-center-best-move-pilot-studies-large-scale-practice
• scientific-surprise-two-step
• Kaiser Fung on the-unkind-fate-of-data-graphics-in-the-media , another-day-another-misuse-of-averages

Dave Giles (Econometrics)

• summer-reading-list but its winter in God's country!
• correlation-and-causation

Dianne Coyle (Quirky + Book Reviews)

• novelist-of-the-squeezed-middle , not-bowling-alone , mathematical-economics , well-being-and-development , inside-shipping

vox wonk

• financial-stability-and-monetary-policy
• research-quality-assessment-tools-lessons-italy
• trans-pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-rulemaking-regulate-state-owned-enterprises
• can-large-primary-surpluses-solve-europe-s-debt-problem

How is the Government travelling?

Here is:

• MUMBLE and 
• KEVIN BONHAM

writing about this topic. I do not intend the reinvent the wheel and they do it far better than I.

Kevin's is the longer and possibly better article.

Work for the dole is very very stupid

We heard yesterday plans for the government that people getting the dole ( to be accurate the dole doesn't exist anymore but you get the point) will need to not only 'work' for it but also show they have gone for 40 jobs during the month.

This is incredibly stupid policy. We already have evidence for this. One of the main reasons for this is that the programs do nothing about improving the skills of the person involved.
Getting a job is a very time consuming job in itself.
I have been lucky in that on the occasions I have been retrenched I have had outplacement facilties given to me.
When you get this the first and possibly only lesson you use is that it is only by using your network that you will gain a new job as the vast majority of jobs are not advertised.
You will drink a lot of coffees as you endeavour to achieve your goal.There are a lot of phone calls involved as well.
As you can see if you are 'working' for the dole then it must mean your chances of gaining that new job diminishes and indeed most studies of work for the dole show this.

In addition if you have to show evidence that you have applied ( and been rejected) for 40 jobs guess who has to do the paperwork. Yep, the business.

This idea is so stupid it could have only come about if Katesy or the Peroxide Princess advocated it!

Special Bonus by the Kouk on will-work-for-the-dole-increase-unemployment

Israel and Palestine

My eldest son asked me why there are problems with Israel and Palestine.
I replied each denies the humanity of the other. Thus when they murder people they feel no remorse indeed they wish to murder more.

The excuses of either side border on the pathetic.
Hamas fires rockets into Israel which in essence do nothing very much. For this hundreds perhaps thousands of their countrymen will dies if the existing situation is prolonged.

Israel acts as though the country is under threat. It isn't and never was. Yes a response to the firing of rockets must be found however it must be proportionate. Clearly the existing situation is anything but proportionate.

What is the solution?

Accept Hamas as the government and let them govern. This would mean they would have to change. Any increase in growth must come first through greater trade with Israel.
As Growth increases and people become materially better off they want a better standard of living, their own homes etc.

Firing rockets makes thus impossible hence it would stop. Hams would become more conservative and act like a government.
Just look at the IRA and Northern Ireland.

Around the Traps 26/7/14

It is time for Around the Traps. I will update on Sunday


Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Martin on mh17-why-planes-and-financial-systems-crash , productivity-commission-childcare-is-worth-it-even-without-an- economic-payoff , abbotts-infrastructure-nation-building
• Ross Gittins on mining-boom-our-gift-to-rich-foreigners , why-were-still-not-free-of-gfc
• Greg Jericho on keeping-mining-tax-wont-kill-investment , childcare-verdict-beats-paid-parental-leave-says-productivity-commission
• Mumble on blame_the_greens ,oz_media , what_was_joe_thinking
• Andrew Elder on brand-positioning , the-human-interlude
• Nick Gruen on australian-economic-reform-the-next-generation
• David Walker on ben-hills-monument-to-newspaper-journalism, Iran flight 655: how did Australia react?
• The Kouk on in-the-groove-inflation-rate-means-rba-on-hold
• Ken Wolf on Do-you-know-a-con-artist-when-you-see-one 
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-brief-history-of-disaster-bounces
• Sean Carney on are-voters-set-to-stop-giving-first-term-leaders-a-second-chance
• Robert Merton on superannuation-make-income-the-outcome
• Andrew Norton on scholarship-scepticism-confirmed
• Peter Wicks on gillard-accuser-deserts-michael-smith-over-kathy-jackson

Northern America

• Dave Altig and Pat Higgins on gdp-growth-will-we-find-a-higher-gear 
• Edward Lambert on labor-supply-is-the-effective-demand-limit , simon-wren-lewis-car-trouble
• Menzie Chinn on unanchored
• Calculated Risk on key-measures-show-inflation-mostly-at-or-below-fed's-target-in-June , a-few-comments-on-existing-home-sales, comments-on-new-home-sales-report 
• Livio De Matteo on not-slower-just-more-erratic-comparing-growth-in-canada-and-the-united-states
• Bruce Carman on recessionary signals
• Kruggers on hows-california-doing
• Mark Thoma gives us James Choi on one-of-the-most-vivid-arithmetic-failings-displayed-by-americans
• Noah Smith on national-unity-sure-is-helpful 
• Brad De Long on ms-market-reject-national-income-identities-afternoon-comment
• Robert Waldeman on more-on-consumers-inflation-forecasts
• Mark Thoma gives us Uwe Reinhardt on the-illogic-of-employer-sponsored-health-insurance

Europe

• Tim Harford on crime-prevention-wheres-the-evidence
• Chris Dillow on internalizing-constraints , blairs-legacy
• Jonathon Portes on welfare-reform-and-jobs-miracle
• Menzie Chinn on russia-raises-policy-rate
• Simon Wren-Lewis on  why-strong-uk-employment-growth-could-be-really-bad-news 
• Noah Smith on how-to-beat-russia

Asia
nuttin

Wonk

• John Quiggin on macrofoundations-of-micro , hazlitt-and-the-glaziers-fallacy
• James Hamilton on keeping-oil-production-from-falling , the-changing-face-of-world-oil-markets
• Kruggers on asymmetrical-doctrines-vaguely-wonkish
• David Glasner of monetarism-and-the-great-depression
• Jeremie Cohen-Setton on blogs-review-the-taylor-rule-legislation-debate
• The Growth economics blog on geography-matters-even-if-it-doesnt Thanks Mark
• Nick Rowe on new-keynesian-neo-fiscalists-for-increasing-austerity, the-growth-stages-of-the-new-keynesian-model
• Chris Dillow on crowding-out
• Menzie Chinn on forward-premia-and-the-carry-trade
• Simon Wren-Lewis on synthesis-david-beckworths-insurance-policy then Nick Rowe on the-soft-fade-from-monetary-to-fiscal
• Noah Smith on why-doesnt-finance-industry-use-dsge-models
• Kenneth Thomas on fun-and-games-with-transfer-pricing.
• Robert Waldeman on labor-market-flows-and-extended-unemployment-insurance-ii

General

• Calculated Risk on tanta-what-is-subprime  A classic
• Noah Smith on are-liberals-rescuing-marriage , youll-get-no-edge-with-zero-hedge
• Simon Wren-Lewis on is-economics-jargon-distortionary
• Chris Dillow on why-not-worker-control , see-no-evil , repressive-diversity
• Stormy on complicit-in-the-horror-that-is-gaza 
• Michael Brull on israel-and-art-war-spin-and-slaughter
• Sandwichman on supply-creates-its-own-demon-sciod
• Steve from Brisbane on voucher-wars-continued
• David Glasner on who-is-grammatically-challenged-john-taylor-or-the-wall-street-journal-editorial-page
• Andrew Gelman on meritocracy-wont-happen-the-problems-with-the-ocracy thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on on-perusing-the-comments-sections
• Doverbeach on the-form-of-the-argument-regarding-marriage

Climate

• Tamino on global-warming-climate-change
• Science of Doom on does-the-surface-temperature-change-with-back-radiation-kramm-vs-gerlich , natural-variability-and-chaos-one-introduction
• Jonathon Koomey on deep-decarbonization-truly-facing-the-climate-challenge
• Rick Piltz on what-to-do-about-the-social-cost-of-carbon-metric-part-1
• Joe Romm on antarctic-sea-ice-trend
• Mark Thomas gives us Robert Rubin on ignoring-climate-change-could-sink-the-us-economy
• John Quiggin on ccs-awol

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly but not only Statistics)

• skepticism-published-claim-regarding-income-inequality-happiness
• statistical-stand-comedy-alan-bennett-stewart-lee-david-owen
• world-without-statistics
• nfl-players-keep-getting-bigger-bigger
• good-enough-martin-luther-king-laurence-tribe
• experience-registered-replication-project
• Noah Smith on bayesian-superman , why-i-like-frequentism
• Kaiser Fung on digital-journalism-has-an-archiving-challenge , general-statistical-education-is-an-utter-failure

Dave Giles (Econometrics)

• promoting-econometrics-through-econometrica
• more-on-step-unwise-regression-and-pretesting

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book reviews)

• life-leaving-and-existentialism , calling-young-economists-who-want-to-write , a-dangerous-place , advice-for-madmen
• Frances Woolley on learning-about-theory-does-not-teach-people-how-to-theorize

Vox Wonk

• agglomeration-and-product-innovation-china
• corporate-governance-banks-and-financial-stability
• partial-corporate-tax-harmonisation-eu
• long-term-damage-us-court-s-argentinian-debt-ruling
• crowding-out-theory-eurozone-crisis
• rethinking-african-solar-power-europe
• inequality-big-cities
• employee-satisfaction-and-firm-value
• smes-lending-relationship-lending-vs-arm-s-length
• sticky-prices-and-behavioural-indifference-curves
• new-thinking-reserve-currency-status

What is Sub-Prime

Calculated Risk has this classic post by the late Doris Dungey better known as Tanta on what was sub-prime loans.

It is a classic.
 
In 2007 when I was at a very large Funds Manager the man involved with credit research was most impressed with my knowledge of the US housing market.
I soon put him onto this blog and it became a must read. Consequently they never had any dud CDOs on their books.

You know you are old when...

A long time ago I was a member of the Sydney Anglican diocese social issues committee.

Two people who were also on the committee were Margaret Rodgers and John McIntyre.

Margaret was a very easy person to know and to talk to. I was very sad to hear she had dies of a heart attack.  She actually interviewed me for the Anglican magazine. I was in the midst of co-writing a paper on Unemployment and was suddenly made redundant so I gained practical experience on the subject!

John and I were very unlikely friends. We never agreed on anything be it theology , economics or even the 'stolen generations'. However we enjoyed each other's company enormously. when he has made Bishop of Gippsland he told me I must visit him. Unfortunately something always cropped up and I never did.  
He dies recently of respiratory failure. he was only 62!
He found it strange that I was much more conservative than anyone in the Sydney Anglican hierarchy but I would always share a beer with him yet others wouldn't!

I will miss John.

The Carbon Price

The price on carbon ( note please it wasn't a tax although quite similar) is now gone.
Here are a few articles from Friday's Around the Traps.

Firstly the Kouk writes about the economics of the carbon price.

Next we have Hugh Saddler examining energy-markets/looking-back-two-years-price-emissions. Note that rising prices have changed consumption ( The ETS was only a small part of that.) Renewable energy has risen considerably.
Then we have Anna Skarbek and Franz Josko telling us we should be keeping-our-eyes-on-the-ball-is-the-only-way-to-hit-our-climate-target.
 In essence if you believe in clomate change you have either a carbon tax or an ETS. If you do not you have neither. 

Finally we find Peter Martin saying carbon-tax-going-but-dont-expect-big-savings. Tony Abbott is going to have MORE problems.

Bill Shorten has promised to have an ETS as part of his policy platform for the nest election. Some people think this is a vote loser.
I disagree for two reasons.
1) you can only mount a scare campaign before it is implemented. once the fixed price ETS was implemented it became a big yawn. it was unheard of in the last election.

2) A floating price ETS will probably be lower than the fixed price introduced after the 2010 election so it will have even less effect than minor effect the fixed price ETS had.

I might add when El Nino impacts Australia then climate change will again rise as a major issue in the public's mind.

Around the Traps 18/7/14

It is time again for Around the Traps.
Catch up round for postponed wet weather games this weekend ( not a lot of games therefore) so updates will be on Saturday and Sunday.


Aussie, Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Matt Cowgill on a-response-to-judith-sloan-on-monopsony
• Mumble on not_long_now , after_the_repeal
• Peter Martin on fofa-your-financial-planner-is-about-to-send-you-a-letter-but-it's-not-, enoughthe-carbon-tax-is-gone-will-prices-come , carbon-tax-going-but-dont-expect-big-savings
• Greg Jericho on why-australian-voters-care-more-about-jobs-than-fixing-the-budget , good-borrowers-bad-savers-rate-cut-likely
• Antony Green on double-dissolutions-and-the-redistribution-timetable
• Ausopinion on climate-reversals-an-update
• The Piping Shrike on the-confusions-of-anti-politics
• Andrew Elder on poor-journalism-is-a-crime , the-future-of-financial-advice
• Kevin Bonham on nteuumr-nikolic-trailing-in-bass , poll-roundup-post-budget-recovery-stalls
• The Political Sword on The-accidental-prime-minister
• Ross Gittins on carbon-tax-not-real-reason-for-soaring-electricity-prices , how-to-reform-industrial-relations
• The Kouk on why-the-abbott-budget-was-the-perfect-political-poison , how-good-is-this-95-of-12-17-year-olds-have-never-smoked
• John Quiggin on condemned-by-history , stafford-by-election
• Laura Tingle on punting_martin_parkinson_symbol

Northern America

• Kruggers on its-not-the-economy-stupid, this-age-of-infallibility
• Noah Smith on should-fed-crash-the-economy-now-to-prevent-a crash-later
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-yellen-testimony
• Menzie Chinn on an-exchange-regarding-asset-price-implications-of-fiscal-and-monetary-policies-in-the-wake-of-2008, guest-contribution-taylor-rule-legislation
• Frances Woolley on why-do-unions-bargain-for-health-benefits
• Liveo De Matteo on the-real-minimum-wage
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-june-housing-starts
• John Robertson and Ellyn Taylor on part-time-for-economic-reasons-a-cross-industry-comparison

Europe

• Tim Harford on underperforming-on-performance
• Simon Wren-Lewis on french-macroeconomic-policy
• Chris Dillow on forced-into-work

Asia

Nuttin

Wonk

• Mark Thoma on new-classical-economics-as-modeling-strategy , is-there-a-phillips-curve-if-so-which-one , empirical-evidence-on-inflation-expectations-in-the-new-keynesian-phillips-curve
• Brad De Long on department-of-wtf-chris-house-on-traditional-macroeconomic-models-and-the-great-recession
• Simon Wren-Lewis on why-macroeconomists-not-bankers-should-set-interest-rates , has-great-recession-killed-traditional-phillips-curve, aggregate-demand-and-labour-market , public-investment-and-borrowing-targets , further-thoughts-on-phillips-curves
• Nick Rowe on some-simple-arithmetic-for-mistakes-with-taylor-rules
• Noah Smith on demand-in-gaps  then Nick Rowe on unemployment-aggregate-demand-and-searchmatching
• Chris House on traditional-macroeconomic-models-and-the-great-recession Thanks Mark
• Kruggers on aggregate-demand-aggregate-supply-and-what-we-know-wonkish , on-the-neo-paleo-keynesian-phillips-curve-wonkish, james-tobin-and-aggregate-supply-implicitly-wonkish
• Robert Waldeman on calvo-pricing-precautionary-saving-and-financial-frictions , comment on NK models
• David Beckworth on the-data-problem-with-natural-interest-rate-problem-and-how -to-fix-it Thanks Mark
• David Glasner on another-complaint-about-modern-macroeconomics
• Brad De Long on understand-bis-view-analytical-position-rather-rhetorical-attitude , thursday-hoisted-from-comments-someone-who-remembers-1997-98-on-chris-house-on-traditional-macroeconomic-models-and-the-great-recession
• Mike Konzal on search-models-mass-unemployment-and-minimum-wage  Thanks Mark
• Mark Thoma on risk-aversion-and-the-natural-interest-rate , debt-great-recession-and-the-awful-recovery
• Chris Dillow on lumpy-markets-mental-models
• Noah Smith on austrianism-wrong-inconceivable
• Mark Thoma gives us Joshua Gans on do-patents-stifle-cumulative-innovation
• Nick Rowe on taylor-rules-again
• Edward Lambert on falling-labor-demand , labor-supply-is-the-effective-demand-limit

General

• John Quiggin on zombie-ddt-myth-reanimated , finance-global-or-international
• Chris Dillow on time , why-idiots-succeed , many-ways-of-being-smart
• The Incidental Economist on are-americans-really-exercising-less Thanks Mark
• Chris Bertram on bullshitting-about-gaza
• Brad De Long on world-war-i-reading-list-late-summer-2014, thursday-history-intellectual-origins-of-reagan-thatchernomics
• Jim Rose on measurement-and-theory-can-the-facts-just-speak-for-themselves
• Lord Keynes on robinson-on-time-in-economic-theory , keynes-on-marginal-cost-and-price
• Doverbeach on what-is-marriage-a-reply-to-david-leyonhjelm
• Mark Thoma gives us Brad De Long on is-choosing-to-believe-in-economic-models-a-rational-expected-utility-decision-theory-thing
• Simon Wren-Lewis on a-short-note-on-tobacco-packaging
• Carola Binder on the-most-transparent-central-bank-in-the-world

Climate

• Phys Org on -australia-greenhouse-gases-ozone Thanks Steve from Brisbane
• The Kouk on the-basic-economics-of-the-carbon-price
• Steve from Brisbane on some-pretty-rare-good-news-on-ocean-acidification
• Harry Clarke on inefficient-though-fairly-effective-carbon-pricing
• Brave New Climate on four-corners-and-its-field-of-dreams
• Tamino on time-and-tide
• Real Climate on rossby-waves-and-surface-weather-extremes
• Science of Doom on models-on-and-off-the-catwalk-part-four-tuning-the-magic-behind-the-scenes
• Jeff Spross on urban-heat-islands-cities-convection
• Emily Atkin on polar-vortex-missed-the-point
• Peter Dorman on the-climate-misconceptions-series
• Hugh Saddler on energy-markets/looking-back-two-years-price-emissions
• Anna Skarbek and Frank Jotzo on keeping-our-eyes-on-the-ball-is-the-only-way-to-hit-our-climate-target

Andrew Gelman (Mainly Stats)

• stan-analyzes-world-cup-data
• building-theories-used-describe-magnets-scientists-put-together-model-captures-something-different
• stan-world-cup-update
• europeans-australians-eager-believe-renal-denervation
• ethics-and-statistics
• differences-econometrics-statistics-varying-treatment-effects-utilities-economists-seem-like-models-fixed-stone-statisticians-tend-comfortable-with-variation
• Kaiser Fung on two-unsolved-problems-of-big-data-studies-confirmation-and-controls

Dave Giles (Econometrics)

• the-econometrics-of-temporal-aggregation-11-causality-testing
• demand-analysis-henry-schultz-and-the rediscovery-of-sutsky
• price-indices-based-on-scanner-data
• step-wise-regression

Dianne Coyle (Quirky + Book Reviews)

• fact-and-fiction , what-economic-history-do-economists-need-to-know, technology-in-history , corruption-and-consumption , your-economic-history-suggestions-collated
• Steve from Brisbane on big-numbers
• Bryan Walker on antarctica-an-intimate-portrait-of-a-mysterious-continent
• Emilyn Atkin on climate-change-shiraz

Vox Wonk

• failed-policy-response-global-crisis
• knowledge-elites-enlightenment-and-industrialisation
• why-us-and-eu-are-failing-set-information-free
• article/sourcing-foreign-inputs-improve-firm-performance
• comprehensive-gains-trade-non-price-factors
• target2-controversy
• do-trans-fat-bans-save-lives
• members-only-embracing-diversity-wto
• new-price-adjustments-reshape-world-yet-again
• psychological-therapy-costs-nothing
• pension-reform-and-equity
• trust-and-welfare-state-twin-peaked-curve
• making-macroprudential-regulation-operational
• enhancing-transparency-bank-england-s-inflation-report
• banks-government-bonds-and-default
• china-s-unemployment-and-labour-shortage
• transatlantic-trade-and-investment-partnership-review-debate-economic-blogs
• intellectual-property-and-service-sector-innovation

Hit and Myth in the Middle East

I was reading Chris Bertram's piece on the current state in Gaza when it occurred to me both Hamas ( wholly created by Israeli intelligence) and Israel both campaign on myths which simply do not make sense.

Hamas sends rockets into Israel. the 'Iron dome' system appears to be working well as the said rockets have not killed anyone as yet. Israel blows any rockets up that appear may hit areas of Israel that could hurt or kill people and let other rockets go if they simply blow up in the country side.
One might think Israel is lucky Hamas does not sophisticated weapons that Russian guerrillas use in the Ukraine.One might also ask why?

Israel claim they have to clamp down on these rockets to prevent any people getting killed.
Thus both parties are sending out and reacting to myths.

It is like when Israel says Hamas is committed the destruction of Israel. Yes they might have that aim but they do not have the means and never will.

As long as both sides argue about myths and not what actually happens nothing will ever change.

One thing is for certain neither 1948 nor 1967 can be excised from history.
Part of the solution would have been when Hamas won Government to encourage them to change like the IRA in northern Ireland. Israel went the other way.
That worked well!

Here's Peter Beinart

Judith Sloan demolished again

I outsource this to STEVE from BRISBANE.

I find it interesting that a person who gets things so badly wrong time and time again doesn't seem to care.
Perhaps she uses too much peroxide.

I think one of the reasons why people from Catallaxy not only get things wrong on a consistent basis but also fail to acknowledge their mistakes is because they rarely venture outside of that blog. Hence they never have to defend their absurd positions.
They keep on making columns most of which you would think they are living on another planet. Few contrary positions are allowed there.
Anyone who does usually gets banned for made up reasons.

It is all very sad

When Parents grow old

I had my mother with us last week.

It was both fine but also very sad.
Despite the guest room having its own bathroom and toilet she frequently got lost going to any of the rooms.
She needed help to have a shower, to brush her teeth amongst  many other things.

Both My wife's father and my father are dead.
My  wife's father was the GP to the country town of Blayney and did a magnificent job. I remember being woken up in the cold mornings more than once to discover him driving to the hospital to to help patients, usually the result of car accidents.
He had a very sharp mind and thus it was heart rending to see him deteriorate so quickly when he retired. To visit him at the Aged Care part of Blayney hospital was heart breaking. The great thing was to see how much the hospital staff cared for him.

My father was a very energetic man. He would paint the house every year! Once he was in decline he declined very fast and was a shadow of the man he had been at his peak.

There are some people who want to live to a ripe old age. I am not one of those people.

The World Cup

The World Cup is now over and Germany has won.

It has been the best world cup I have watched since the 1986 finals in Mexico.

We saw attacking teams win in the group stage. Every team which tried to park the bus lost!

This ( and the lack of cards as demanded by FIFA which this Referee disagrees with) meant more goals scored during the group stage than for some time. Even the draws were mostly great to watch.

The goals certainly dried up when the second round came but this always occurs. We still had attacking teams winning.

There was no stand out team in this cup. Germany were lucky but worthy winners. One would have said the same thing if Argentina had have won. Unfortunately we did not see Messi at his best in this tournament. He has not been in great form for around 6 months so it was expecting a bit for him to be like Maradona was in 1986 . He was more like Maradona in 1990!

Teams such as Brazil and Holland were a travesty to their culture. No Joga Bonita no total football. A number of coaches reputations went backwards.

Australia had a lot of encouraging signs. Ange took over way too late but we played well in the first two games with out youthful inexperience costing us all the goals. It was unfortunate that whilst we didn't have a lot of talent to choose from we had injuries to vital players just at the wrong time.

however we played well and with lick could have had two wins. As with most inexperienced youthful teams we could pick ourselves for the third time and got well beaten by Spain however I am looking forward to both the Asian cup in Australia next January and then the World Cup in Russia in four years time.

Around the Traps 11/7/14

It is time for Around the Traps.
A lot of great articles in Vox Wonk this week. Genial Dave Giles is trying to enjoy himself in NZ. Good luck!
Wife and boys in Blayney with her mother so can update on the weekend with ease.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Quiggin on can-any-evidence-convince-the-right, hoist-by-their-own-petard
• Peter Martin on rba-dollar-overvalued-and-not-by-just-a few-cents, electricity- prices , tony-abbott-the-most-radical-prime-minister-since-Whitlam , change-at-top-gruen-leaves-treasury , fofa-cormanns-instant-karma
• The Kouk on it-s-crunch-time-for-the-rba, falling-real-wages, a-soggy-labour-market-points-to-easier-policy , gross-government-debt-hits-323-billion
• Ross Gittins on tough-times-restore-productivity-performance , ignoring-climate-change-will-cost-the-economy
• Jim Rose on the-reserve-bank-governor-2013-versus-the-labour-party-on-whether-its-monetary-policy-upgrade-will-increase-the-inflation-rate-and-destabilise-the-exchange-rate , at-least-20-of-new-zealand-workers-are-subject-to-occupational-regulation
• Matt Cowgill on links-for-8-july-2014 , the-other-econometrics-of-the-minimum-wage-in-new-zealand
• Mumble on theyre_losing_the_base , the_big_hoax , dd_musings
• Kevin Bonham on what-kills-state-governments-age-or-Caberra , queensland-polling-careful-with-that
• Antony Green on is-the-abbot-government-in-a-position-to-request-a-double-dissolution

Northern America

• Edward Lambert on is-economy-nearing-natural-limit
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-inflation-hysteria-redux , fed-watch-when-the-fed-starts-raising-rates, fed-watch-qeinfinity-not
• James Hamilton on current-economic-conditions
• Nick Rowe on employment-and-investment-the-great-canadian-disconnect
• Noah Smith on grading-wsjs-ideas
• Robert Waldeman on flows-from-unemployment-to-employment-extended-unemployment-insurance
• The Brookings Institution on Have-the-anti-aca-ads-backfired
• Menzie Chinn on airbrushing-history-aca-edition
• Calculated Risk on fed-vice-chairman-stanley-fischer- on -financial -sector-reform
• Brad De Long on over-at-equitable-growth-nick-bunker-the-beveridge-curve-and-the-us-labor-market , over-at-equitable-growth-what-is-the-macroeconomic-cost-of-not-expanding-medicaid-thursday-focus 
• David Beckworth on its-all-but-official-there-is-no-2%-inflation-target , its-time-for-fed-to-move-beyond-inflation-targeting Thanks Mark

Europe

• Menzie Chinn on what-to-do-about-the-crazy-euro , russia-stalls
• Kevin O'Rourke on orphanides-the-eurozone-crisis-is-political
• Simon Wren-Lewis on hitting-poor-and-disabled
• Chris Dillow on party-politics-social-change

Asia
nuttin

Wonk

• Noah Smith on can-infrastructure-stimulus-unite-Krugman-and Cochrane
• Kruggers on knutty-asset-prices
• David Glasner on a-new-version-of-my-paper-with-paul-zimmerman-on-the-hayek-sraffa-debate-is-available-on-ssrn
• Nick Rowe on insufficient-demand-vs-uncertainty
• Barkely Rosser on when-rate-of-return-and-rate-of-growth-do-not-matter-much-for-Piketty
• Mark Thoma gives us Carola Binder on the-unemployment-cost-of-below-target-inflation
• Edward Lambert on asset-prices-and-krugmans-low-interest-rates
• Simon Wren-Lewis on taylor-rules-zlb-and-euro-diversity
• Chris Dillow on incomes-satisfaction, the-profits-crisis, unions-and-productivity
• Jim Rose on keynesian-macroeconomics-as-a-form-of-juvenile-real-business-cycle-theory-rbc
• John Quiggin on in-search-of-search-theory
• Nick Rowe on a-simple-test-of-simple-rules-against-actual-policy-in-the-actual-economy
• Tony Yates on market-monetarist-views-are-a-mish-mash-of-the-good-and-the-silly-that-dont-belong-together-anyway  Thanks Mark
• Brad De Long on trying-and-failing-to-understand-the-84th-bis-annual-report-monetarist-deleveraging-fiscalist-and-understandings-of-our-current-dilemmas  and Kruggers onliquidationism-in-the-21st-century
• Mark Thoma gives us Simon Wren-Lewis on rereading-lucas-and-sargent-1979
• Ross Gittins on how-economists-changed-their-tune-on-the-mimum-wage

General

• John Quiggin on with-reformicons-like-this-no-wonder-the-reactobots-always-win
• Chris Dillow on gender-culture-economism , the-degradation-of-middle-class-work
• Tim Harford on all-aboard-the-volatility-express
• Noah Smith on liberals-need-to-think-more-about-future , nature-nurture-or-mindset

Climate

• Harry Clarke on retain-carbon-pricing
• Real Climate on release-of-the-international-surface-temperature-initiatives-istis-global-land-surface-databank-an-expanded-set-of-fundamental-surface-temperature-records , rossby-waves-and-surface-weather-extremes
• Science of Doom on ensemble-forecasting
• Peter Dorman on the-road-from-carbonville-new-series-on-climate-policy

Andrew Gelman (Mainly but not only Stats)

• just-wondering
• p-s-anyone-working-hierarchical-survival-models
• open-source-tools-running-online-field-experiments
• chicago-alert-mister-p-stan-interviewed-wbez-today-fri-315pm
• hey-new-kind-spam
• Kaiser Fung on the-facebook-experiment-controversy

Dave Giles (Econometrics)

• a-big-thank-you-to-nzae  You should have come to OZ Dave!!!
• finite-sample-properties-of-2sls-estimator

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• the-right-kind-of-free-markets, the-right-kind-of-free-markets

Vox Wonk

• lessons-history-eurozone-crisis
• monetary-policy-quantitative-controls
• why-leaning-against-wind-wrong-monetary-policy-sweden
• managing-credit-bubbles
• piketty-s-two-laws
• revisiting-the-pain-in-spain
• globalisation-job-security-and-wages
• trust-based-working-time-spurs-innovation
• culture-effort-and-us-eu-labour-market-divergences
• financial-preparations-leading-wwi
• trade-regional-development-and-institutions-lessons-brazil
• ever-closer-union
• gender-diversity-management-japan
• gender-and-glass-ceiling
• growing-through-cities-india
• how-history-can-contribute-better-economic-education
• connecting-brazil-world
• external-integration-and-development-evidence-argentina

Australia reaches a new low

The news the government sent all asylum seekers back to Sri Lanka the country from where they were persecuted is a new low and shows the Government has no moral compass.
No-one could take seriously they could investigate their claims on a boat.

I will be interested to see what the government apologists say about this action.

Around the Traps 4/7/14

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Martin on how-tony-abbott-made-carbon-tax-work , fofa-how-commonwealth-bank-got-what-it-want
• Andrew Elder on paying-the-price
• Ross Gittins on the-news-on-our-health-is-good
• Kevin Bonham on victorian-liberals-going-going
• The Kouk on as-the-economy-hits-the-wall-the-rba-moves-to-cut-interest-rates
• Mumble on new_senate
• Greg Jericho on raising-interest-rates-hammer-australian-economy
• John Quiggin on australias-economic-growth-secret

Northen America

• Menzie Chinn on whistling-past-the-graveyard , the-june-employment-release , on-the-characteristics-of-those-covered-under-some-government-programs
• Noah Smith on dont-kill-export-import-bank 
• Livio De Matteo on canada-one-hundred-and-forty-seven-years-of-economic-growth
• Mark Thoma on gdp-seasons-and-revisions
• James Hamilton on gasoline-prices-in-perspective Petrol price Jim!!
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-employment-report , public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs- under-various-Presidents
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-june-employment-report

Europe

• Chris Dillow on fiscal-idiotarianism , tories-for-whom, political-narratives
• Simon Wren-Lewis on brexit-2015-and-business-vote
• Kruggers on the-secret-of-belgiums-success , swedish-sadomonetarist-setback
• Jim Rose on the-decline-of-class-as-a-factor-in-voting
• Tim Harford on lets-play-economics-by-metaphor

Asia

• Noah Smith on japans-changing-attitudes-toward-women 
• M0nty on china-is-too-big-to-fail

Wonk

• Robert Waldeman on what-happened-to-phillips-curve  and phillips-curves-with-anchored-expectations Thanks Mark
• Yifan Cao and Adan Shapiro on june/will-inflation-stay-low-phillips-curve Thanks Mark
• David Glasner on the-enchanted-james-grant-expounds-eloquently-on-the-esthetics-of-the-gold-standard , john-cochrane-on-the-failure-of-macroeconomics
• Noah Smith on why-did-new-classical-revolution-happen , resist-austrian-brain-worm , cochranes-thoughts-on-recession-and-recovery, slow-recovery-explanations-the-structural-alternatives
• Chris Dillow on how-i-would-defend-inequality
• Kruggers on stability-or-sadomonetarism , neomonetarist-delusions
• Nick Rowe on neofiscalist-delusions
• Simon Wren-Lewis on the-financial-instability-argument-for-raising-rates , taylor-rules-zlb-and-euro-diversity
• Menzie Chinn on international-trade-and-finance-and-policy
• Spencer England on 1970s-stagnation
• Edward Lambert on the-other-kind-of-austerity-low-labor-share
• Julie Hodgkiss on the-implications-of-flat-or-declining-real-wages-for-inequality
• Mark Thoma on two-responses-to-john-cochranes-attack-on-new-keynesian-models

General

• John Quiggin on tobacco international inc
• Jim Rose on coase-on-mathematical-economics , the-central-role-of-the-market-in-the-emergence-of-fairness , freedom-of-religion-and-equality-before-the-law-in-a-democracy
• Contraction Watch on how-often-do-economists-commit-misconduct thanks Mark
• Lord Keynes on some-reviews-of-keynes-general-theory
• Gerry Jackson on george-soross-fascist-economic-thinking-part-1

Climate

• Peter Dorman on carbon-and-climate-in-very-long-run, in-future-all-spell-checkers-will-recognise-biogeochemical-cycling , climate-change-why-fatalism-could-be-fatal , climate-misconception-1-climate-change-is-a-pollution-problem
• Greg Jericho on sp-climate-change-australia-and-us-are-moving-in-opposite-directions
• Gareth Renowden on record-winter-warmth-in-nz-june-2014-breaks-140-year-record
• Rabette Run on maybe-there-is-something-you-dont-know
• The Science of Doom on the-greenhouse-effect-explained-in-simple-terms 

Andrew Gelman (Mainly Stats)

• who-invented-metropolis-algorithm
• whos-bigger-the-new-book-that-ranks-every-human-on-wikipedia-is-more-like-bill-simmons-than-bill-james
• informed-bayesian-assessing-prior-informativeness-prior-likelihood-conflict
• great-advantage-model-based-ad-hoc-ap-proach-seems-given-time-know
• dimensionless-analysis-applied-swimming
• visualizing-sampling-error-dynamic-graphics
• Kaiser Fung on the-facebook-experiment-controversy
• Jared Bernstein on evidence-is-it-really-overrated Thanks Mark

Dave Giles (Econometrics)

• the-econometrics-bard-strikes-again
• my-july-reading-list

Dianne Coyle (Quirky + Book Reviews)

• economists-and-humanity , inequality-and-value-judgements , womens-work
• Frances Woolley on the-canadian-women-economists-network-lunch-an-idea-whose-time-has-past

Vox wonk

• housing-capital-and-piketty-s-analysis
• minimum-prices-alcohol-should-work
• tipping-over-tpp
• great-recession-s-long-term-damage
• banque-de-france-s-1889-lifeboat-bank-rescue
• why-europe-needs-two-euros-not-one
• germany-and-future-euro
• durable-consumption-during-recessions
• reform-and-be-re-elected
• using-happiness-scales-inform-policy-strong-words-caution