Inflation

 The ABS released the CPI figures yesterday for both the quarter and the month.

Although the annual rate rose in headline terms the Trimmed mean fell and has been falling albeit slowly for sometime.

John Hawkins says Australias-3-8-inflation-rate-is-concerning-but-not-enough-to-trigger-a-rate-rise after the figures

My old mate Peter Martin said why-the-rba-is-highly-unlikely-to-lift-interest-rates-next-week-even-as-inflation-climbs BEFORE the figures. Read it it is a great  and therefore very informative article.

There are two views going around about rates. Former Assistant governor and now Chief Economist for Westpac Luci Ellis believes there is a chance of a rate cut in November. Warren hogan ,who looks like his father of the same name, believes there will be a rate rise.

I agree with Luci Ellis and I think you will if you read Peter's article.

Rex Airlines

 Rex airlines is in the headlines for the wrong reasons.

Read the link and it will tell of the problems the company faces. Board troubles and a hubristic thought that they could take major city routes seem to be easily overcome. concentrating on regional routes and gives them a reasonable but not great profit.

The Government should only get involved IF it is temporary and the airline is a going concern. I do not support the usual National party socialistic practice of privatising the profits and socialising the losses.

The government should not get involved if the airline can only exist on government largesse!

As it is it is my guess Rex's demise is greatly exaggerated.

Cabinet Reshuffle

 Not much to say here.

O'connor was always competent, Burney always over-rated and never rose to the occasion.

Giles should have been demoted as his performance was abysmal. O'Neil was slightly unlucky but could resurrect herself in housing.

I have said previously I do not like burke BUT he is easily the most impressive minister.Putting him in Immigration and home affairs makes sense if you believe there is a weakness there. Albo's changing of the guard virtually admits that.

The other changes make sense. 

Overall the government has been competent but timid. I expect this to continue.

what most people are missing about Harris

 Kamala Harris is now the Democrat candidate for President.

Having Fetch I can watch CNN and MSNBC ( CNN is the better except for Ari Melber) and of course read about US politics so i can say with conviction people are missing an important bit of information about Harris.

There is no getting around it but she was awful in her attempt in 2019 to become the democratic candidate. Few realise why. She could not highlight he background as a prosecutor and then AG for California. She was even dubbed Copala because some in the base thought her to tough on crime. Without this record to highlight she became 'wishywashy'. She also lost confidence. This was very important.

She became vice President without knowing exactly what she would do. however following the dobbs decision she recovered her mojo. She immediately saw the electoral implications of the decisions and saw how to sell it. Make it about health care for women and make it a libertarian argument. women should make decisions about their body not the government.

She was proved right. Her confidence soared as a result and she proved possibly the Democrats best campaigner in the midterms.

Finally we saw this after the first siasteropus debate for Biden. Harris was very very impressive when interviewed by CNN on the debate and what went wrong.

Her recent appearance talking about Gaza was impressive as well.

A politician with great confidence is easy to observe and at present Harris has that in spades.

Now she has made the Presidential campaign the prosecutor versus the felon.That is making the campaign on her terms and more importantly it angers Trump to make stupid and wierd statements that can only hurt him. no-one has done that before.

Add any of the highly impressive Vice President candidates and things are looking good. No I am avoiding brat like the plague.

The Democrats could have fluked themslves a good candidate because no-one really examined why she failed in 2019 and brushed off her impressive background and senate record!

sorry but the main point I was attempting to make is what was a weakness in 2019 is a great strength in 2024.

The lady is not only attractive but can dance as well.

Around the Traps 26/7/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark Gregory on massive-global-it-outage-hits-banks-airports-supermarkets-and-a-single-software-update-is-likely-to-blame
• Paul Strangio on compulsory-voting-in-australia-is-100-years-old-we-should-celebrate-how-special-it-makes-our-democracy
• Ross Gittins on construction-industry-honeypot-that-capital-and-labour-fight-over , cost-of-living-crisis-why-only-some-of-us-are-feeling-the-pinch
• Kevin Bonham on effective-vote-spreading
• Mathew Wade on the-productivity-commission-wants-to-axe-a-key-tax-break-for-private-school-donations-but-the-government-is-determined-to-keep-it
• croaking cassandra on treasury-wanting-to-use-fiscal-policy-more , not-a-good-case-for-a-cbdc , treasury-says-one-thing-in-a-speech-but-quite-another-in-the-befu
• Jane Hunter and Don Carter on is-there-a-right-way-to-teach-recent-debates-suggest-yes-but-students-and-schools-are-much-more-complex

OZ climate

• Kyle Turner and Luke Brown on fortescue-has-put-its-ambitious-green-hydrogen-target-on-hold-but-australia-should-keep-powering-ahead
• Asma Aziz on big-batteries-are-solving-a-longstanding-problem-with-solar-power-in-california-can-they-do-the-same-for-australia
• John Quiggin on czech-nuclear-deal-shows-csiro-gencost-is-too-optimistic-and-new-nukes-are-hopelessly-uneconomic
• Ian Lowe and Kylie Walker on small-modular-reactors-have-promise-but-we-found-theyre-unlikely-to-help-australia-hit-net-zero-by-2050
• James Pittock and Bradley Moggridge on yes-australias-environment-is-on-a-depressing-path-but-7-billion-a-year-would-transform-it
• Jay Gordon on eight-ways-nsw-could-lower-energy-bills
• Tom Saunders on nsw-antarctica-warming-over-50c
• bowen-signs-deal-to-treble-large-scale-wind-and-solar-capacity-and-double-storage-in-the-west
• five-things-we-learned-this-week-from-teds-talk-and-people-who-actually-know-stuff
  
• new-wind-and-solar-remain-stalled-at-the-gate-but-battery-starts-are-charging-to-new-records
  
• solar-and-battery-project-proposed-for-gateway-to-snowy-mountains
  
• worlds-largest-offshore-wind-developer-gets-federal-nod-to-start-gippsland-studies-with-conditions
  
• gas-power-and-coal-outages-lead-to-big-jump-in-wholesale-electricity-prices-in-june-quarter
  
• too-slow-and-too-risky-and-its-waste-wont-fit-in-a-coke-can-engineers-debunk-coalition-nuclear-plan
  
• costly-gas-coal-outages-lead-to-big-jump-in-wholesale-electricity-prices-in-june-quarter
  
• origin-to-double-size-of-eraring-battery-to-soak-up-solar-next-to-countrys-biggest-coal-generator
  
• learnings-from-the-texas-grid-and-why-its-been-able-to-add-so-much-solar-and-battery-storage
  
• bill-shock-energy-retailers-have-a-nasty-surprise-with-smart-meters-and-time-of-use-tariffs
  
• forget-nuclear-5b-says-plunging-price-of-pv-means-giga-scale-solar-farms-the-future-for-old-coal-plants
  

Northern America

• Institutional Economics on crypto-gold-prisons-and-gun-stocks
• Brad De Long on hoisted-from-the-archives-department-of-huh , why-are-so-many-people-so-eager-to-think-monetary-policy-is-unsustainable-market-manipulation
• Menzie Chinn on macroeconomic-implications-of-forced-mass-deportation
• Lindsey Collins-Praino on is-joe-biden-experiencing-cognitive-decline-heres-why-we-shouldnt-speculate
• Fred Kaplan on trump-speech-rnc-foreign-policy-brazen-lies , joe-biden-not-seeking-reelection-historical-comparison
• Christian Paz on biden-drop-out-harris-endorse-polls-against-trump-democrats-dnc
• noahopinion on dont-rock-the-vote , bidens-legacy-a-summary
• Norman Eissen et al on judge-cannon-classified-documents-ruling-supreme-court
• Daniel Flitton on bye-biden
• Andrew Prokop on kamala-harris-donald-trump-polling , jd-vance-project-2025-book-kevin-roberts-trump
• Bill Haskell on 2017-tax-breaks-and-jobs-act-failed-to-deliver
• Prudence Flowers on 6-in-10-americans-support-abortion-rights-this-could-be-the-advantage-kamala-harris-needs-against-donald-trump
• Victoria Cooper on america-s-election-it-s-not-foreign-policy-stupid
• Ben Scott on don-t-expect-trump-20-be-so-tough-china
• Adam Serwer on roberts-supreme-court-2024-term
• the conversable economist on if-demand-for-us-treasury-bonds-dried-up-what-warning-signs-would-flash , us-manufacturing-jobs-in-long-term-context
• Dahlia Lithwick on harris-trump-2024-gop-jezebel-loser
• James Hamilton on still-strong-after-all-these-years
• Josh Bivens on suppostion-economic-performance-is-stronger-when-democrats-hold-the-white-house
• Josh Marshall on thunderdomisms-last-stand Thanks Brad
• Lucas Allthof and Hugo Reichardt on Jim Crow and black economic progress after the civil war Thanks Brad
• Torsten Slok on consensus is getting a bit more worried Thanks Brad
• Gabriel Chodorow-Reich et al on lessons from the biggest tax cut in US history Thanks Brad

Europe

• Basil Germond on ukraine-war-russia-has-the-upper-hand-in-the-ground-war-but-at-sea-its-a-different-story
• Shannon Bosch on deadly-consequences-misclassifying-foreign-fighters-ukraine
• Mainly Macro on more-power-to-obr
• Elizabeth Ames on good-vibes-only-can-starmer-make-european-political-community-work
• Menzie Chinn on russia-policy-rate-raised-to-18

Asia

• Mohd Yunus on uncertain-future-southeast-asia-s-great-sea-nomads
• Shmolo Ben-Ami on netanyahu-far-right-government-enabling-iran-covert-war-against-israel Thanks Nick
• Kourosh Ziabari on curious-international-silence-about-iran-s-new-reformist-president
• Michael Toole on polio-in-gaza-what-does-this-mean-for-the-region-and-the-world
• Fred Kaplan on netanyahu-speech-congress-nothing-but-theater
• Yair Rosenberg on netanyahu-speech-congress-israel
• Tariq Mir on kashmir-crackdowns-and-plunder
• Grant Wyeth on why-taiwan-should-embrace-multiculturalism

Wonk

• David Tuffley on one-small-update-brought-down-millions-of-it-systems-around-the-world-its-a-timely-warning
• Sanjoy Paul and Towfique Rahman on a-global-it-outage-brought-supply-chains-to-their-knees-we-need-to-be-better-prepared-next-time
• Toby Murray on what-is-crowdstrike-falcon-and-what-does-it-do-is-my-computer-safe
• Shayne Vial on are-running-shoes-getting-too-good-why-technological-doping-is-a-growing-concern-for-professional-sports
• Rebecca Connolly on rising-tensions-over-outer-space-new-diplomatic-hot-zone
• Sushil Aaron on does-democracy-still-matter-new-cold-war-between-us-china
• Tim Harford on cautionary tales
• noahopinion on bad-and-good-arguments-for-industrial-policy , yes-we-still-have-to-work
• the conversable economist on muphrys-law-of-editing-and-proofreading
• Ruxandra Teslo on intellectual-courage-as-the-scarcest-resource
• David Tuffley on one-small-update-brought-down-millions-of-it-systems-around-the-world-its-a-timely-warning
• Uneasy Money on thought-and-details-on-the-fiscal-theory-of-the-price-level
• Tyler Cowen on the-employment-effects-of-a-guaranteed-income
• John Quiggin on getting-old-and-being-old , privatisation-public-sector-australia-uk-nsw-roads-thames-water
• Ben Rhodes on american-descent-wannabe-fascists-america-last
• Lord Keynes on per-bylunds-is-it-money-because-it-is
• Greg Earl on economic-diplomacy-looking-beyond-30-year-anomaly

General

• Tian Du and Greg Neely on how-a-century-old-drug-could-revolutionise-cobra-bite-treatment
• Matt Garrow and Niall Seeang on do-hosts-win-more-medals-are-athletes-getting-older-128-years-of-olympic-history-in-5-charts

Climate

• rabbett run on dispatchable-hydropower-for-the-win
• Joel Eissenberg on more-thoughts-on-carbon-capture
• Stephen Sherwood and Anna Ukola on landmark-new-research-shows-how-global-warming-is-messing-with-our-rainfall

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• put-multiple-graphs-on-a-page-thats-what-nathan-yau-says-and-i-agree
  
• what-to-do-with-election-forecasts-after-biden-is-replaced-on-the-ticket
  
• the-piranha-problem-large-effects-swimming-in-a-small-pond
  
• what-do-the-data-say-about-kamala-harriss-electability
  
• the-fail-fast-principle-in-statistical-computing
  
• this-ones-important-looking-beyond-the-obvious-essentialism-and-abstraction-as-central-to-our-reasoning-and-beliefs
  
• niall-ferguson-and-j-d-vance
  
• Freakometrics on measuring and mitigating biases in motor insurance pricing
• the conversable economist on tradeoffs-from-a-real-world-climate-geoengineering-experiment
• Kaiser Fung on know-your-data-39-everyones-doing-it
• Torsten Slok on why would long and variable lags be asymmetric Thanks Brad

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• industrial-policy-the-long-and-the-short-of-it
  
• Constance Brady on best-books-ministry-of-time-kaliane-bradley-great-expectations-vinson-cunningham
• Angry Bear on corruptible-the-essential-features-of-corrupt-leaders
• Andrew Gelman on some-books
• Stoat on book-review-heritage-of-stars
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• equating-inequality-public-perceptions-income-and-wealth-distributions
  
• trapped-china-and-middle-income-trap
  
• role-workforce-ageing-closing-gender-pay-gap
  
• return-overseas-visits-political-leaders-evidence-japanese-yen-loan-procurement
  
• implications-decarbonisation-fuel-excise-tax-revenues-and-pricing-road-transport
  
• why-global-temperature-matters
  
• how-cut-uk-debt-interest-bill
  
• global-semiconductor-talent-crunch-how-protectionism-backfired
  
• deciphering-disinflation-process
  
• flood-risk-and-credit-smes
  
• history-pre-modern-european-universities-nutshell
  
• diverse-investor-base-impacts-effectiveness-large-scale-asset-purchases
  

Israel is NOT a civilised country

 The Israeli PM said to the US congress the war in Gaza is about civilisation versus barbarism.

Let me humbly disagree. No-one would disagree that Hamas's actions were barbaric. They murdered without any compunction Israelis. Many were sympathetic to the Palestinian cause.

Israel's reaction was to exterminate Hamas personnel despite any Palestinians in the vicinity. This is like my next door neighbour brutally murders my wife. I see him with a group of people and kill all of them but justify it by saying i killed him.

Two problems immediately leap out. Firstly you are ruling out any trial and then punishment because you want revenge.

The second is you are essentially saying it does not matter how many people die in your attempt at so-called justice.

Revenge is barbarism. Israel are simply replicating what Hamas has done. Civilised nations believe in law and order. you bring the people to justice and then hopefully their punishment will fit the crime. This is what should happen to every member of Hamas.

When Russia attacks schools, hospitals etc in Ukraine we are outraged. When Israel does it there is silence.

It is not good enough. All the killing of innocent palestinians could simply create Hamas 2.0. This would be the worst outcome.

on getting old

 John Quiggin has written getting-old-and-being-old.

Now John is slightly only slightly older than I. He is still in fulltime employment which I am not. There is one thing that stood out when reading his article. He needed a nap during the day. I find around  12-2 pm I do need a nap. Only usually about 30 minutes but around this times I find it hard to keep my eyes open. It is not every day but most days. I also enjoy going to sleep more as well.

Read the article and see if it makes sense.

global temperature matters

 A very good article on why-global-temperature-matters. It is global temperature not local temperature that matters when it comes to costs of global warming

Biden eventually meets reality

 Joe Biden is now no longer the Democrat candidate.

I am not going to go into this as I recently wrote about why Biden could not win. He has a great record which is not recognised since most yanks are 'confused' about economic statistics.

I am assuming Harris will be the Democrat candidate. It all works. The prosecutor versus the felon. It would mean abortion becoming a major issue. It would mean age is a negative for the Republicans.

Who will be the Vice President nominee. Roy Cooper looks good to me but I am not a yank!

This will upend republican strategy but not that much to democrat. It should also provide the energy much needed the democrats needed. BUT we shall see

Andrew Gelman on what-to-do-with-election-forecasts-after-biden-is-replaced-on-the-ticket

Allman Brothers

 A long time ago I bought Duane Allman: an Anthology after listening to it in an import shop. I do not have time to explain what an import shop was.

Duane wanted two lead guitarists and two drummers!

I loved  listening to the Allman Bros after that.

This one is a bewdy from the aforementioned album with Boz Scaggs

Around the Traps 19/7/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• croaking cassandra on public-sector-bloat-reserve-bank-edition
• Nick Gruen on john-quiggin-and-the-overton-gradient
• Ross Gittins on oecds-message-to-our-inflation-warriors , take-heart-australia-is-still-better-and-fairer-than-most , unthinking-privatisation-leaves-much-mess-to-be-cleaned-up
• Anthony Forsyth on all-eyes-on-labor-as-alleged-corruption-envelops-cfmeu-here-are-the-governments-options
• Michelle Grattan on government-expected-to-appoint-administrators-to-clean-up-cfmeu-as-union-remains-defiant
• Greg Jericho on australia-cost-of-living-crisis-interest-rates-inflation
• Natalie Galea on the-cfmeu-overhaul-wont-do-much-to-end-the-blokey-culture-that-dominates-australian-job-sites
• Timothy O'Leary on labor-wants-to-put-the-construction-union-into-administration-but-last-year-it-axed-the-cop-on-the-beat-that-doesnt-look-wise
• Peter Siminski on yes-we-are-a-more-equal-society-than-most-but-not-quite-as-mobile-as-the-productivity-commission-suggests-heres-why

OZ Climate

• John Quiggin on achieving-net-zero-with-renewables-or-nuclear-means-rebuilding-the-hollowed-out-public-service-after-decades-of-cuts-2
• Bill Grace on no-room-for-nuclear-power-unless-the-coalition-switches-off-your-solar
• Graham Readfearn on renewables-caught-in-misinformation-crossfire-from-australias-nuclear-cheerleaders
• Peter Hannan on is-andrew-forrests-energy-dream-in-peril-the-future-of-green-hydrogen-in-australia-explained
• south-australias-renewable-triumph-is-stunning-proof-that-duttons-nuclear-plans-are-a-folly
  
• just-for-the-heroes-can-australia-survive-the-offshore-wind-inflection-point
  
• nuclear-too-slow-to-replace-coal-and-baseload-simply-cant-compete-with-wind-and-solar-aemo-boss-says
  
• bowen-says-asking-australia-to-go-nuclear-is-like-asking-the-swiss-to-take-up-surfing
  
• the-silence-has-been-deafening-matt-kean-urges-industry-to-take-on-renewable-naysayers
  
• bowen-hints-at-even-larger-auctions-after-huge-response-to-australias-biggest-wind-and-solar-tender
  
• energy-retailers-cash-in-and-send-customer-bills-soaring-as-coal-plants-fail-again
  
• blackouts-bankruptcy-and-bugger-off-bowen-posters-ted-obriens-dystopian-and-error-riddled-energy-vision
  

Northern America

• institutional economics on project-2025-and-us-monetary-policy
• Eric Levitz on biden-nato-press-conference-democrats , trump-assasination-attempt-democracy-threat-rhetoric-critics-violence-politics-biden
• Jeremy Faust on president-biden-o-connor-medical-diagnosis-parkinsons
• Andrew Prokop on project-2025-trump-policies-abortion-divorce
• Menzie Chinn on cea-tariffs-as-a-major-revenue-source-implications-for-distribution-and-growth
• Arie Perliger on one-inch-from-a-potential-civil-war-near-miss-in-trump-shooting-is-also-a-close-call-for-american-democracy
• Thomas Klassen on attempted-assassination-of-trump-the-long-history-of-violence-against-u-s-presidents
• Lydia Khalil on trump-attack-will-bolster-his-dark-vision-america
• Nicole Narea on trump-classified-documents-case-cannon-dismissed-indictment
• Zack Beauchamp on jd-vance-trump-vp-vice-president-authoritarian
• Shirin Ali on aileen-cannon-jack-smith-classified-documents-case-trump-trial-clarence-thomas
• noahopinion on how-can-america-be-stabilized , understanding-the-new-tech-right , why-has-us-manufacturing-productivity-stagnated-for-over-a-decade
• the conversable economist on more-migration-needed , unexpected-economist-walt-whitman-and-the-brooklyn-waterworks
• Norman Eissen et al on judge-cannon-classified-documents-ruling-supreme-court
• Katherine Fitzgerald on conspiracy-theories-on-the-trump-assassination-attempt-are-spreading-like-wildfire-on-both-sides-of-politics
• Dahlia Lithwick on florida-documents-case-aileen-cannon-move-to-dc
• new deal democrat on we-are-in-uncharted-territory , things-are-so-bad-industrial-and-manufacturing-production-are-close-to-10-year-highs
• Abdallah Fayyad on rnc-2024-make-america-safe-again-trump-gop-false-crime-wave
• Barbara McQuade on bob-menendez-guilty-verdict-doj-trump
• Sussanna Patton on has-biden-checkmated-china
• David Cole on the-supreme-courts-power-grab
• Sean Wilenz on the-dred-scott-of-our-time
• Amy Davidson-Sorkin on in-trumps-documents-case-aileen-cannon-tells-jack-smith-to-go-away
• Jeet Heer on democratic-economy-crime-biden-nato
• Fred Kaplan on rnc-gold-star-families-trump-biden-fallen-soldiers-marines

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on investment-growth-some-problems
• Justin Brown on what-next-uk-trade-relations-eu
• mainly macro on two-myths-about-future-of-conservative-party
• noahopinion on europes-fate-is-in-germanys-hands
• Tyler Cowen on why-is-sweden-paying-grandparents-to-babysit
• Menzie Chinn on russia-economic-sit-rep , russia-real-gdp-and-gdp-ex-military-spending
• Daren Acemoglu on starmer-labour-party-plan-to-boost-economic-growth-invest-in-public-services

Asia

• Arshin Adib-Moghaddam on irans-new-reformist-president-offers-hope-to-the-west-and-cover-for-the-conservative-establishment
• Menzie Chinn on china-gdp-news-and-a-view-on-chinese-medicine
• Smytta Yadav on india-election-modis-bjp-failure-to-retain-faizabad-reveals-sea-change-in-countrys-politics
• Kieran Thompson on japan-s-5g-ambitions-quad
• jonathan Campbell-James on irgc-navy-flexes-its-long-range-threat-capability

Wonk

• Roger Kreuz on trumps-raised-fist-how-one-gesture-can-be-used-by-republicans-socialists-fascists-white-supremacists-and-black-athletes
• Menzie Chinn on exchange-rates-and-interest-rates-some-papers
• Tim Harford on whos-responsible-for-our-accountability-problem
• noahopinion on theres-not-that-much-wealth-in-the-world
• sandwichman on how-to-save-free-enterprise
• the conversable economist on unexpected-economist-carl-linnaeus-on-economic-theory , unexpected-economist-e-o-wilson-marx-just-had-the-wrong-species
• Lindsy Collins-Praino on is-joe-biden-experiencing-cognitive-decline-heres-why-we-shouldnt-speculate

General

• Olaf Meynecke on we-tracked-a-floating-whale-carcass-to-see-where-it-drifted-and-the-result-was-fascinating
• Franciso Testa on not-just-space-rocks-6-things-weve-learned-about-earth-from-meteorites-and-comets
• Shayne Vial on are-running-shoes-getting-too-good-why-technological-doping-is-a-growing-concern-for-professional-sports

Climate

• met office on sea-ice-loss-remains-a-serious-issue
• skeptical science on fact-brief-climategate , air-condition-out-of-extreme-heat
• Moyhu on giss-june-global-temperature-up-by-005c-from-may
• open mind on heat-waves

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• 19-ways-of-looking-at-data-science-at-the-singularity
  
• our-troops-with-aching-hearts-were-obliged-to-fire-a-part-of-the-town-as-a-punishment
  
• how-bad-are-search-results-dan-luu-has-some-interesting-thoughts
  
• a-message-to-christian-hesse-mathematician-and-author-of-chess-books
  
• google-is-violating-the-first-law-of-robotics
  
• the-recent-iranian-election-should-we-be-suspicious-that-the-vote-totals-are-all-divisible-by-3
  
• bill-james-hangs-up-his-hat
  
• polling-averages-and-political-forecasts-and-what-do-you-really-think-is-gonna-happen-in-november
  
• my-comments-on-nate-silvers-comments-on-the-fivethirtyeight-election-forecast
  
• how-do-you-interpret-standard-errors-from-a-regression-fit-to-the-entire-population-2
  
• Freakometrics on exploring techniques for transferring learning on climate data

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• always-and-everywhere-a-political-phenomenon
  
• private-revolutions
  
• diy-electricity
  
• Brad De Long on reviewing-harold-james-seven-crashes , review-eric-monnet-balance-of-power
• Joel Eissenberg on book-review-death-in-the-haymarket

Vox Wonk

• staggered-contracts-and-unemployment-during-recessions
  
• standards-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-fuel-economy-induce-innovation-clean-car
  
• how-far-goods-travel-global-transport-and-supply-chains-1965-2020
  
• i-lgbtqi-socioeconomic-and-health-disparities-affecting-intersex-people-mexico
  
• investments-hospital-infrastructure-reduced-mortality-us-south
  
• pledge-practice-assessing-uks-net-zero-commitment
  
• us-election-risks-and-impact-trumps-re-election-odds-financial-markets
  
• child-benefits-international-comparative-context
  
• customer-data-access-and-fintech-entry-early-evidence-open-banking
  
• equating-inequality-public-perceptions-income-and-wealth-distributions
  
• asset-pricing-anomalies-modern-theory
  

Donald Trump is evil

 Donald Trump is evil in a very satanic way.

Why do I assert this?

It is not because he has been found guilty of fraud although that is an evil act.

Nor is it because the company he controls has been found guilty of fraud although that is an evil act.

It is not because he has been found guilty of sexual assaulkting a female ( which the judge said was rape) and then libelled the woman although they are evil acts

It is not his falsifying of business documents so no-one would find out he had sex with a peron star although that too is an evil act.

It is not because he instigated an insurrection so he could continue as President although he lost the election although that was an evil act.

It is not he is a congenital and consistent  liar although that too is an evil act.

No he is evil because of two things he is very closely associated with.

Trump introduced us to post truth in politics. This is where there are no facts that are agreed on. There are alternative facts now which aren't facts at all. This is closely related to post-modernism where there are no absolute values only relative values.

Allied to this was the introduction of fake news. This was the claim that the news organisation did not actually relate 'proper' news and any criticism of trump was false. We did learn later that this was merely something Trump did to undo criticism of him particularly with regard to the lies he regularly spoke.

What is the result of all this.

Most american believe:

• the stock market is falling when it is at record highs
• that unemployment is at 40 year highs not 40 year lows
• inflation is rising when it is falling
• crime and violent crime particularly is rising  when it is falling indeed it was higher when Trump was President

A society that no longer believes in facts but only what they feel is a society where Satan is winning bigtime

The CFMEU should be put into administration

 The CFMEU is in big trouble.

See

• government-expected-to-appoint-administrators-to-clean-up-cfmeu-as-union-remains-defiant
  
• all-eyes-on-labor-as-alleged-corruption-envelops-cfmeu-here-are-the-governments-options
  

Clearly something has to be done about the criminal behaviour of the union.

Deregistration of the union would penalise union members and the members conditions would be totally changed with negotiated EBAs  and awards no longer applying. 

We can also observe the deregistration of the BLF by Hawke was not that unsuccessful.

On the other hand placing the union in an administrator's hands has benefits. It was entirely successful in the HSU case.

It would also means member's conditions would not be affected.

Sport

 I am going to ignore politics today

Football

Spain deservedly won the euro championship. This young side won it pretty easily playing the beautiful game as it should. The second goal was a masterpiece in how to score and crush your opponent.

They are a young side so they should get better which is scary for other sides particularly those playing in the copa america!

Jimmy Anderson

Those in charge have made the decision that Jimmy Anderson will not be part of the England team. Quite clearly he was never going to Australia. To be honest he has not been playing well over the last two seasons. Against australia he appeared to have lost his ability to swing the ball.If that was the case he has recovered it now. His very last wicket was classic Anderson. A very good outswinger which the basman nicked to the wicket keeper.

That being the case I would always have anderson around with tests in England.

He is quite clearly the best fast medium swing bowler I have ever seen. A batsman can usually spot when a bowler is bowling outswingers or inswingers. Outswingers require a side-on action whilst in-swingers requires a more open action. Anderson was able to hide this better than any other bowler I have seen.

It was a good week for sport.

Say it aint so Joe

 To paraphrase the late great Bill Collins Joe Biden can't win.

Ever since that woeful 'debate' experience it has been all about Biden and is he capable or not.

Two examples. We found out a specialist in parkinson disease had been to the Whitehouse on a number of occasions. This was seized by the press which ignored two important things. If he was at the Whitehouse to see Biden about  his parkinson disease  it would be bad and be all there to see. We had not seen anything. No-one bothered to see if Biden was at the Whitehouse all the times the specialist was there. He was in fact only there once!!

At the press conference he held the impressive amount of detailed knowledge was ignored and only the verbal flubbs essentially reported. no-one but no-one reported Trump would not have understood the questions let alone answer them

This is unfair BUT politics is unfair and after the debate his team was terrible. Firstly the excuses made no sense at all. We still have no idea of why he was so bad!! Secondly where were the press conferences or one on one interviews to see if Biden was up to the task? Nothing happened for TEN days.

An average performance in the debate would have meant all the press would have been on Trump's multiple lies and evasion of questions but instead it was all about Biden.

It will be so if Biden continues to be the candidate. Biden will continue to be the issue of the campaign which means he will lose. Who ever is the issue will lose.

This hides the fact that Trump has not really gained many votes but that Biden has lost votes since the last election.

The only way to possibly gain them back is for Harris to become the candidate and for Trump to be the issue of the election.

I cannot believe even Yanks would vote back a man found by courts to be guilty of fraud, ( so has his company), sexual assault of a female which the judge said was rape and of course the falsifying of business records which lead to 34 felony counts.We are not even talking about the attempted insurrection  when he failed to upend the election.

Add to that his congenital lying, his lack of any moral compass and his authoritarian tendencies and he should be easy meat to beat.

The other problem Biden has is people believe the stock market is not at record highs but has fallen , that unemployment is not a record lows but at record highs that inflation is rising not falling, Very strange

time to go Joe!

Traffic

 Traffic was a great group with multiple changes but with Steve Winwood always in the creative lead.

The low spark of high heeled boys was easily the best song they ever did.

Here it is live. enjoy

Around the Traps 12/7/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy.Oy,Oy

• Chris Wallace on all-commit-and-no-disagree-the-real-reason-why-labors-solidarity-pledge-is-not-working
• Ross Gittins on yes-we-need-tax-reform-but-it-offers-no-answers , the-moribund-political-duopoly-is-rapidly-destructing , forget-smaller-government-lets-shoot-for-better-government
• croaking cassandra on not-on-the-brink-of-bankruptcy , still-avoiding-responsibility
• Frank Bongiorno on faith-based-politics-is-nothing-new-in-australia-so-whats-albanese-really-worried-about
• John Buchanan on why-real-wages-in-australia-have-fallen-while-theyve-risen-in-most-other-oecd-countries
• Michelle Grattan on real-time-donation-disclosure-and-spending-limits-in-labor-electoral-reforms
• Lisa Asher and Catherine Sutton-Brady on supermarket-concentration-benefits-stores-not-shoppers-its-time-to-split-foodstuffs-not-make-it-stronger
• Sarah Kendall on a-russian-born-adf-soldier-and-her-husband-have-been-charged-with-spying-what-does-this-mean

OZ Climate

• Asma Aziz on without-a-massive-grid-upgrade-the-coalitions-nuclear-plan-faces-a-high-voltage-hurdle
• Milton Speer and Lance Leslie on southerly-busters-are-becoming-more-frequent-but-less-severe-as-the-climate-changes-stirring-up-east-coast-weather-watchers
• Jay Gordon on australians-overpaid-18-billion-gas-networks-now-theyre-being-asked-more
• fate-of-contested-hills-of-gold-wind-project-delayed-again-as-developer-fights-for-more-turbines
  
• concrete-foundations-and-first-turbines-up-as-s-a-s-biggest-wind-farm-poised-to-start-production
  
• no-room-for-nuclear-agl-says-flexibility-is-key-as-it-switches-from-coal-to-renewables-in-a-decade
  
• sad-pathetic-farmers-say-arcane-network-rules-take-the-cream-off-the-clean-energy-they-produce
  
• south-australia-locks-in-federal-funds-to-become-first-grid-in-world-to-reach-100-per-cent-net-wind-and-solar
  
• new-big-battery-breaks-habit-goes-for-morning-stretch-and-takes-state-to-new-record
  

Northern America

• James Downie on supreme-court-immunity-ruling-jim-crow
• Neal Katyl on sotomayor-trump-immunity-dissent-election
• Steve Waldman on no-longer-a-liberal-democracy Thanks nick
• past present future on the-biden-team-and-the-bay-of-pigs Thanks nick
• institutional economics on the-trump-trade
• Sean Illing on how-the-1990s-broke-politics
• noahopinion on energy-bell-the-sketch-of-an-idea , lets-evaluate-the-whole-republican-party-platform , skilled-immigration-is-a-national-security-priority
• Brad De Long on restore-elon-musk-and-tesla-to-greatness , ok-jay-powell-precisely-which-inflation-numbers-do-you-want-to-see-more-of
• new deal democrat on further-on-why-the-big-increase-in-immigration-has-been-distorting-the-signal-from-the-sahm-rule
• Zack Beauchamp on uk-french-election-results-2024-britain-england-france-biden
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-incompetent-abortion-trump-immunity
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-term-end-john-roberts-maga
• Menzie Chinn on reserve-de-dollarization-in-progress , cea-tariffs-as-a-major-revenue-source-implications-for-distribution-and-growth
• Frank Figliuzzi on supreme-court-trump-immunity-fbi
• Erin Hurley on biden-s-candidacy-was-risky-debate-democrats-chose-him-anyway
• David Appell on where-us-coastal-land-is-sinking
• the conversable economist on are-american-jobs-really-all-that-bad , americas-elevator-problem
• Lisa Rubin on joshua-kindred-trump-judge-sexual-misconduct
• Victoria Cooper on why-democrats-suddenly-have-buyer-s-remorse-biden
• Christian Paz on kamala-harris-2020-president-campaign-2024-failure-lesson
• Tim Alberta on trump-campain-election-2024-susie-wiles-chris-lacivita
• Fintan O'Toole on savior-complex-biden
• Jeet Heer on biden-distraction-trump-fascism , biden-indispensable-samson-option
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-02
• Mark Leibovitch on biden-digging-in-presidential-race
• Ben Bland on biden-time-out-time

Europe

• Ben Wellings on keir-starmers-labour-party-has-a-thumping-election-win-what-does-it-mean-for-the-uk-and-the-rest-of-the-world
• Mick Ryan on four-key-influences-evolution-ukraine-war-2025
• Chris Armstrong on bye-bye-tories-hello-what
• Mainly Macro on what-conservative-rout-tells-us-about-the-popularrity-of-a-rightwing-populist-government
• Romain Fathi on french-say-non-to-le-pens-national-rally-but-a-messy-coalition-government-looks-likely
• Isaac Chotiner on the-uncertain-outcomes-of-emmanuel-macrons-election-maneuver
• Anna Russell on tory-tears-on-the-uks-election-night
• renew economy on german-coal-power-production-drops-to-record-low-in-q2-as-renewables-soar-to-65-pct-share

Asia

• Ahmed Albayrak and Roland Rajah on political-upheaval-vietnam-holding-its-economy-back
• Ian Hall on modi-s-moscow-miscalculation
• Henry Storey on india-faces-jobless-growth-problem
• Ellen Ioannes on pezeshkian-iran-khamenei-elections-raisi-president-ayatollah-mahsa-amini-protests-vote-hijab
• Anubhav Goswami on india-s-act-east-ambition-must-navigate-myanmar

Wonk

• Emmy Van Esch on skip-the-fancy-perks-better-staff-wellbeing-could-be-as-simple-as-the-view-from-the-office-window
• Peter Dean on the-end-of-superpower-conflict-was-a-fantasy-era-the-west-underestimated-russia-and-china-the-cold-wars-are-back
• Khalid Siddig and Rob Vos on sudan-is-now-confronting-its-most-severe-food-security-crisis-on-record
• Samuel Bashfield on cable-ties-defending-seabed-lines-communication
• Tyler Cowen on 30th-anniversary-of-the-brazilian-real
• Alex Tabarrok on rent-control-2
• sandwichman on self-limitation-as-social-project

General

• Jamie Roberts on guide-to-the-classics-the-art-of-war-the-ancient-chinese-war-manual-loved-by-edgelords-and-management-gurus
• Tim Harford on cautionary-tales-the-loneliness-of-the-long-distance-woman
• Thea van de Mortal on whats-the-difference-between-man-flu-and-flu-hint-men-may-not-be-exaggerating

Climate

• Ryan North and Tim Barrows on we-used-1-000-historical-photos-to-reconstruct-antarctic-glaciers-before-a-dramatic-collapse
• Mark Costello and Peter Harris on as-ocean-surfaces-acidify-a-deep-sea-acidic-zone-is-expanding-marine-habitats-are-being-squeezed
• Moyhu on june-global-surface-templsup-0030-from-may
• open mind on how-fast
• Kevin Morrison on why-carbon-capture-and-storage-not-solution

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• you-can-guarantee-that-the-term-statistical-guarantee-will-irritate-me-heres-why-and-lets-go-into-some-details
  
• cross-validation-and-pointwise-or-joint-measures-of-prediction-accuracy
  
• its-time-how-much-should-we-charge-for-a-link
  
• the-election-is-coming-what-forecasts-should-we-trust
  
• a-guide-to-detecting-ai-generated-images-informed-by-experiments-on-peoples-ability-to-detect-them
  
• three-cultures-bayes-subjective-objective-pragmatic
  
• ancestor-worship-in-academia-where-does-it-happen
  
• 19-ways-of-looking-at-data-science-at-the-singularity
  
• Kaiser Fung on know-your-data-37-one-billion-passwords

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Bill Haskell on review-material-world

Vox Wonk

• effect-energy-prices-households-and-firms-inflation-expectations
  
• effect-productivity-growth-within-firm-inequality
  
• economic-pathways-new-approach-climate-policy
  
• why-us-doesnt-have-national-health-insurance-political-role-ama
  
• what-european-politicians-think-ecb-experimental-evidence
  
• learning-lessons-government-guarantee-programmes-bank-lending-firms
  
• how-eu-funding-programmes-could-counterbalance-us-inflation-reduction-act
  
• central-bankers-and-trade-ministers-how-monetary-policy-can-prevent-trade-wars
  
• import-channel-of-the-resource-curse
  

Climate Change

 In these terrible times Tamino of Open Mind fame comes up with a reasonably short article that needs to be read so here it is.

how-fast

war

 More evidence from Ukraine that russia simply has no values at all. They use a cruise missile to bob a children's hospital that specialised in cancer. It does not get any more despicable than that. russia then made the excuse it was a ukrainian missile that hit the hospital. That lie does not get anymore trumpian.

In Gaza Israel has deliberately targeted three schools. They di this because they allege Hamas personnel were there. Implied in this targeting is that the number of palestinians killed does not matter.

Hamas got their recruits willingly from families that had people killed by Israel. What in the hell does Israel think is going to occur once this 'war' is over. Hamas 2.0 that's what.

Satan is winning

Senator Payman revisited

 The more I think about Payman's behaviour the more cynical I become.

Payman joined the ALP and became part of the left wing faction. This in itself is very surprising for a person who claims to a person who attempts to live by Islamic principles. Hard to find a more godless faction than the left wing faction. As she rose up through the ALP at no time di she ever enunciate how important Islam was to her vote if she ever was to be elected. Indeed until quite recently this came as a shock to all in the ALP.

Now let us look at the ALP. There is no way the ALP would ever nominate a person who would vote for their beliefs before what caucus has voted for. ( Do these people have no idea of ALP history. It was started by evangelicals. Protestants' left the party when they could not vote on conscience.)

Payman is from Afghanistan yet she has said very little about Taliban oppression there. I also found it strange she quoted the phrase 'from the rivers to the sea' when she was not Palestinian. Now I do find that cultural appropriation.

She now admits she was talking with people other than the ALP when she was part of the ALP. This does not look good at all.

From where I sit Payman was unlikely to win the senate seat again. she has now put herself in a position to do so maybe.

There are now 4 read that again 4 senators who have deemed to be no longer with party they were voted in with, That in itself is not good for democracy.

elections, elections,elections

 Well we have had some elections around the world.

UK

The Labour party easily won the election with first past the post giving them a much bigger majority than their vote suggested.  Let us go back shall we. Teresa May called an early election on specious reasons. The electorate clearly saw those reasons as specious and as They di not think Corbyn could win they treated it as a by-election where Labour got a sizable swing. In the next election corbyn could win and johnsson got a huge swing to the conservatives. He then botched up as everybody knew he would and was replaced by Liz Truss possibly the most incompetent PM ever. After the shortest stay ever she gave way to Sunak. the Conservatives clearly showed they had been in far too long and got hammered. We shall see if Stammer and his team are up to the job.

France

Macron's gamble paid off or di it? He does not have a far right government but will the new one be better than the one it replaces? sometimes very intelligent people can be very stupid. The more important question is who is likely to succeed Macron. We do not know!

Iran

A progressive upset the hard liners and won. his main problem is Trump. Trump last time pulled out of an agreement that was beneficial to all nations for no reason except that Obama has advanced it. If trump wins and then adopts the same policies then Iran has no reason to trust the USA at all or to reduce its nuclear program. Make no mistake this vote was both against the wearing of headscarves and opening up the economy.

USA

Say it ants so Joe. biden should withdraw if only because all the attention is on him after the first debate and it will always be so not Trump. That guarantees defeat not victory. we should get fair dinkum no-ne but no-one puts up a candidate who is gone mentally so we can be confident his debate performance was a  one -off but the strategy after that was woeful. The excuses were laughable. moreover they should have had Biden doing press conferences and interviews showing the debate was a one-off not waiting TEN days.

some people might say this is not fair however politics is not fair!

Around the Traps 5/7/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Martin on cheaper-mortgages-tamed-inflation-and-even-higher-home-prices-how-29-forecasters-see-australias-economic-recovery-in-2024
• Ross Gittins on interest-rate-speculators-should-get-back-in-their-box , despite-what-were-led-to-believe-tax-breaks-are-no-free-lunch
• Emily Foley on fatima-payman-breached-caucus-solidarity-what-does-this-mean-and-why-is-it-so-significant
• Jeff Borland on increasing-annual-leave-to-five-weeks-would-cost-employers-less-than-you-might-think
• Andrew Young on australias-long-awaited-national-anti-corruption-body-is-a-year-old-is-it-meeting-expectations
• Jason Harris on asic-has-comprehensively-failed-and-its-role-should-be-split-in-two-according-to-long-awaited-report
• croaking cassandra on reading-reserve-bank-plans-and-budgets
• Kevin Bonham on the-payman-suspension
• Jonathan Karnon and Andrew Partington on ambulance-ramping-is-getting-worse-in-australia-heres-why-and-what-we-can-do-about-it

OZ climate

• nsw-wind-and-solar-auction-comes-up-short-with-one-winning-project-already-built
  
• they-just-fit-in-with-what-we-do-farmers-reap-rewards-as-they-play-host-to-wind-and-solar
  
• missing-link-more-than-420-neighbourhood-batteries-approved-to-boost-rooftop-solar-and-storage-capacity
  
• australia-inches-towards-renewable-targets-as-most-advanced-wind-and-solar-state-goes-backwards
  
• the-nuclear-and-renewable-myths-that-mainstream-media-cant-be-bothered-challenging
  
• right-wing-media-serves-up-more-nonsense-about-blackout-warnings-and-nuclear
  
• household-batteries-are-now-being-marshalled-to-deliver-very-fast-response-to-grid-security-issues
  
• Sven Teske on australias-carbon-budget-may-blow-out-by-40-under-the-coalitions-nuclear-energy-plan-and-thats-the-best-case-scenario
• Jay Gordon on gas-networks-are-making-persistent-and-significant-supernormal-profits
• Peter Martin on when-it-comes-to-power-solar-is-about-to-leave-nuclear-and-everything-else-in-the-shade
• Sven Teske on australias-carbon-budget-may-blow-out-by-40-under-the-coalitions-nuclear-energy-plan-and-thats-the-best-case-scenario
• Magnus Soderberg on nuclear-power-has-an-advantage-not-reflected-in-its-average-price-its-price-stability-and-for-some-users-that-matters
• Hussein Doi et al on why-electric-beats-hydrogen-in-the-race-to-decarbonise-freight-vehicles-in-australia
• Soroush Basirat and Simon Nicholas on hydrogens-potential-onshoring-australian-green-iron-production , hydrogen-holds-great-potential-australias-onshore-green-iron-production
• 
  

Northern America

• Drezners world on the-choice-is-biden-or-harris thanks Brad
• institutional economics on the-myth-of-wage-stagnation-in-the-US
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-let-china-pay-the-cost-of-solar-energy-and-electric-vehicles
• Daniel Flitton on so-trump-took-out-debate-what-if-biden-wins-election
• Ben Scott on tale-high-stakes-nerves-centre-white-house
• noahopinion on time-to-think-about-a-second-trump-term , assessing-the-threats-to-the-republic
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-let-china-pay-the-cost-of-solar-energy-and-electric-vehicles
• Lester Munson on the-most-realistic-way-to-replace-joe-biden-as-the-democratic-presidential-nominee-allow-him-a-graceful-exit
• Angry Bear on the-gish-gallop-tactic-used-by-trump
• David Frum on trump-should-never-have-had-this-platform
• Riley Keenan on supreme-court-makes-prosecution-of-trump-on-obstruction-charge-more-difficult-with-ruling-to-narrowly-define-law-used-against-him-and-jan-6-rioters
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-netchoice-moody-paxton-first-amendment , supreme-court-trump-immunity-dictatorship
• Richard Hasen on supreme-court-trump-immunity-john-roberts-legacy
• Tyler Cowen oon how-we-should-update-our-views-on-immigration
• Tim Harris on 2024_election_stakes_are_now_astronomical_supreme_court_has_made_the_presidency_above_the_law
• Jim Vanderhei and Mike Allen on trump-2025-imperial-us-presidency
• Frank Bowman on trump-2024-supreme-court-immunity-ruling-be-afraid
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-trump-immunity-president-seal-team-six-assassinate-rival , supreme-court-maga-john-roberts-trump-handmaiden
• Liz Andersen on supreme-court-rules-hitler-immune-from-prosecution-for-burning-down-reichstag-seizing-absolute-power
• Brian Stelter on biden-age-debate-media-coverage
• Anne Applebaum on replace-biden-strategic-plan
• Fintan O'Toole on savior-complex-biden
• David Remnick on the-reckoning-of-joe-biden
• Steve Vladeck on supreme-court-chevron-roberts
• Abdallah Fayyad onold-politicians-gerontocracy-age-limits
• the conversable economist on patriotism-melting-pot-salad-bowl-chocolate-fondue

Europe

• Alex Tabarrok on how-the-german-welfare-state-punishes-performance
• Patrick Shea on what-happens-next-in-ukraines-debt-negotiations-could-change-the-course-of-the-war
• Mainly Macro on why-tactical-voting-in-this-election-could-change-the-nature-of-the-UK's-political-debate
• renew economy on eu-surpasses-50-pct-renewable-power-share-for-first-time-in-first-half-of-2024-germany-at-65-pct
• Renaud Foucard on russia-has-become-so-economically-isolated-that-china-could-order-the-end-of-war-in-ukraine
• Isaac Chotiner on why-the-french-far-right-triumphed

Asia

• Henry Storey on china-s-spluttering-growth-engines
• Jeffrey Robertson on south-korea-s-nuclear-ambition-holds-place-national-consciousness
• Jane Hardy on putin-goes-pyongyang-should-we-be-worried
• Paras Natna on chandrababu-naidu-modi-s-coalition-partner-complements-his-global-outlook
• Evan Freidin on india-s-plan-world-without-cash
• Ved Shinde on why-modi-will-go-moscow
• Joshua Leifer on a-moral-strategic-and-diplomatic-abyss-israel

Wonk

• Susi Ferrarello on are we all hypocrites Thanks Nick
• XN Iraki on kenya-unrest-the-deep-economic-roots-that-brought-gen-z-onto-the-streets
• Tim Harford on shakespeares-forgotten-legacy-hyperbolic-numbers
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-central-bank-credibility-and-institutional-resilience
• noahopinion on the-elemental-foe
• Ashton Robinson on south-africa-strange-noises-cabinet
• Tyler Cowen on an-overly-simple-model-of-positive-and-negative-contagion

General

• Adhi Oktaviana et al on found-in-a-cave-in-indonesia-we-can-now-show-the-worlds-oldest-figurative-art-is-51-200-years-old

Climate

• skeptical science on fact-brief-lag
• the conversable economist on world-energy-some-snapshots
• open mind on how-hot

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• its-lumbar-time-wrong-inference-because-of-conditioning-on-a-reasonable-but-in-this-case-false-assumption
  
• toward-a-shnerbian-theory-that-establishes-connections-between-the-complexity-nonlinearity-chaotic-dynamics-number-of-components-of-a-system-and-the-capacity-to-infer-causality-from-datasets
  
• what-was-going-on-in-statistics-in-1990
  
• interactive-and-automated-data-analysis-thoughts-from-di-cook-hadley-wickham-jessica-hullman-and-others
  
• holes-in-bayesian-statistics-my-talk-tomorrow-at-the-bayesian-conference-based-on-work-with-yuling
  
• obnoxious-receipt-from-spirit-airlines
  
• a-columbia-surgeons-study-was-pulled-he-kept-publishing-flawed-data
  
• grappling-with-uncertainty-in-forecasting-the-2024-u-s-presidential-election
  
• you-can-guarantee-that-the-term-statistical-guarantee-will-irritate-me-heres-why-and-lets-go-into-some-details
  
• Freakometrics on contribution of machine learning in modelling rare values and imbalanced data
• Kaiser Fung on combining-probabilities

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Emma Shortis on american-authoritarianism-has-a-long-history-what-can-it-tell-us-about-trump-and-the-battle-for-americas-soul
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading , emergency-money

Vox Wonk

• changes-global-corporate-bond-markets-and-dynamics-around-investment-grade-threshold
  
• europes-demographic-winter-and-new-eu-fiscal-rules
  
• capital-21st-century-ownership-firms-producing-raw-materials
  
• sequential-contrast-effects-hiring-and-admission-interviews
  
• economic-consequences-geopolitical-fragmentation-evidence-cold-war
  
• the-return-of-industrial-policies
  
• economic-consequences-geopolitical-fragmentation-evidence-cold-war
  
• evaluating-spring-budget-and-uks-fiscal-rules
  
• how-students-parents-and-teachers-affect-integration-minorities-classroom
  
• digital-euro-can-strengthen-financial-stability-limits
  
• educational-scarring-and-cost-business-cycles
  
• gendered-change-150-years-transformation-us-hours
  
• new-curse-critical-minerals
  
• lessons-history-how-removing-barriers-knowledge-can-spur-innovation