Around the Traps 1/12/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• croaking cassandra on breathtaking, the-new-government-and-the-reserve-bank, reading-the-documents, dismissing-top-public-officials
• Marion Terrill and Natasha Bradshaw on think-potholes-on-our-roads-are-getting-worse-youre-right-and-heres-why
• Isaac Gross on meet-andrew-hauser-the-outsider-from-the-uk-wholl-be-deputy-governor-of-the-rba , australias-inflation-rate-now-starts-with-a-4-allowing-the-rba-to-hold-fire-on-rates
• Dennis Muller on at-a-time-when-journalism-needs-to-be-at-its-strongest-an-open-letter-on-the-israel-hamas-war-has-left-the-profession-diminished
• Peter Martin on governments-have-been-able-to-overrule-the-reserve-bank-for-80-years-why-stop-now
• Kevin Bonham on jscems-strange-case-for-extra-territory-senators
• Greg Jericho on rba-data-inflation-rates-retail-spending-november
• Michelle Grattan on extreme-weather-leaves-energy-networks-vulnerable-to-hostile-actors-climate-statement-warns
• Will Davies on ignoring-those-forgotten

OZ Climate

• bowen-capacity-plan-means-a-power-shift-from-big-utilities-but-will-there-be-enough-wind
  
• bowen-may-still-fall-short-of-his-82-pct-renewables-target-but-its-bad-news-for-coal
  
• nsw-looks-for-more-flexibility-on-storage-but-has-it-pulled-plug-on-pumped-hydro
  
• case-for-gas-as-transition-fuel-falling-apart-on-both-economic-and-environmental-costs
  
• why-we-need-to-fight-for-the-community-in-community-batteries
  
• nsw-planning-department-cant-see-the-forest-for-the-trees
  
• lots-of-talk-not-enough-action-wind-solar-and-storage-projects-stalled-at-starting-gate
  
• incoming-nats-add-carpet-bomb-of-wind-turbines-to-list-of-anti-renewable-tropes
  
• wind-turbine-blades-inside-the-battle-to-overcome-the-waste-problem
  
• Celine Steinfeld and Michael Vanderzee on the-governments-murray-darling-bill-is-a-step-forward-but-still-not-enough
• Robyn Eckersly on what-is-a-just-transition-to-net-zero-and-why-is-australia-struggling-to-get-there
• Jacqueline Peel on cop28-how-will-australia-navigate-domestic-climate-wins-and-fossil-fuel-exports-at-the-negotiating-table

Northern America

• Brad De Long on draft-e-plague-years-have-made-me-more-optimistic, how-strong-are-e-economys-equilibrium-restoring-forces
• Dylan Scott on us-aca-enrollment-universal-health-insurance
• David Smith on polls-say-trump-has-a-strong-chance-of-winning-again-in-2024-so-how-might-his-second-term-reshape-the-us-government
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-wealth-tax-moore-united-states, supreme-court-trump-judges-voting-rights-act-arkansas-rose-secretary, supreme-court-sec-jarkesy-administrative-law-judges
• Ben Jacobs on trump-rallies-2024-presidential-campaign-biden-desantis-haley
• noahopinion on americans-are-angry-about-immigration
• renew economy on pollution-from-coal-power-contributes-to-far-more-deaths-than-scientists-realised-study-shows
• Mark Beeson and Van Jackson on economic-statecraft-american-characteristics
• Alan Morrison on supreme-court-case-sec-jarkesy-stakes
• Mark Stern on voting-rights-lower-courts-vs-kavanaugh-roberts, supreme-court-gut-federal-laws-sec
• Dahlia Lithwick on trump-rhetoric-who-listens-types
• Noah Rosenblum on securities-and-exchange-commission-v-jarkesy-supreme-court
• Stephen Vladeck on fifth-circuit-conservative-supreme-court
• skeptical science on nca5-regional-chapters
• the conversable economist on spreading-accounts-across-banks-for-the-deposit-insurance
• Tyler Cowen on perhaps-intergenerational-mobility-has-not-declined-in-the-united-states-after-all
• Lester Munson on henry-kissinger-has-died-the-titan-of-us-foreign-policy-changed-the-world-for-better-or-worse
• Hugh White on henry-kissinger-man-times
• Richard Haas on henry-kissinger-legacy-foreign-policy-for-a-world-of-great-power-politics-and-disarray

Europe

• Aporia on why-the-land-of-the-mafia-has-oddly-low-murder-rate Thanks Nick
• Inside Story on the-enemy-within Thanks Nick
• James Empty blog on vallance-vs-vallance-vs-sage-why-does-doubling-time-matter
• Ian Hill on russia-north-korea-closer-not-too-close
• Mainly Macro on fiscal-failures-uk-autumn-statement-and-the-german-debt-brake
• James empty blog on vallance-vs-vallance-vs-sage-letter-to-UK-covid-inquiry
• Nylah Burton on napoleon-josephine-marriage-divorce-ridley-scott-bonaparte-history-true-story
• Jen Kirby on ukraine-war-russia-land-mines-artillery-humantarian-crisis

Asia

• Gregory Treverton on a-ceasefire-is-far-from-lasting-peace-a-national-security-expert-on-the-israel-hamas-deal
• Nadira Nasrifa and Ahmad Siregad on driving-energy-transition-within-asean
• Ellen Ioannes on river-to-sea-palestine-israel-hamas , myanmar-military-junta-tatmadaw-three-brotherhood-alliance-china
• Ben Scott on hamas-s-position-stronger-you-think
• Tyler Cowen on reassessing-chinas-rural-reforms-the-view-from-outer-space
• Tristan Dunning and Martin Kear on since-the-gaza-war-began-violence-against-palestinians-has-also-surged-in-the-west-bank-and-gone-virtually-unnoticed
• Ian Satchwell on southeast-asia-s-minerals-opportunity-knocks
• David Schulman on a-bitter-season-in-the-west-bank
• Sulaiman Khatib and Avner Wishnitzer on combatants-for-peace-israel-palestine
• Isaac Chotiner on what-would-a-lasting-peace-between-israel-and-palestine-really-look-like
• noahopinion on the-us-must-not-ignore-indonesia
• Brad De Long on draft-what-is-going-on-wi-chinas-economy
• renew economy on china-to-install-record-breaking-230-gw-of-wind-and-solar-in-2023

Wonk

• Inside Story on  blighted-affections thanks Nick
• Felix Martin on multipolar world opens up surprising safe havens thanks Nick
• Roland Rajah and Riley Duke on de-risking-developing-country-debt
• Tim Harford on policy-lessons-from-the-official-monster-raving-loony-party
• the grumpy economist on pro-dollarization
• Brad De Long on draft-how-can-we-deal-wi-zombie-neoliberal- ideas
• Raina McIntyre et al on how-worried-should-we-be-about-the-pneumonia-outbreak-in-china
• Selwyn Parker on rise-redback
• Juan Batteleme on argentina-beggar-chooser
• Tyler Cowen on why-argentinas-dollarization-is-likely-to-come-in-sudden-messy-ways
• Mike Morley et al on controversial-claims-about-extinct-humans-are-stirring-up-evolution-research-heres-how-the-mess-could-have-been-avoided
• noahopinion on people-are-realizing-that-the-arsenal-of-democracy-is-gone

General

• Jen Webb on simone-de-beauvoir-hannah-arendt-simone-weil-and-ayn-rand-all-felt-different-in-the-world-and-changed-the-way-we-think
• Chris Ellis on science-communicators-need-to-stop-telling-everybody-the-universe-is-a-meaningless-void

Climate

• Menzie Chinn on world-coal-consumption-trends
• Timothy Naish on cop28-earths-frozen-zones-are-in-trouble-were-already-seeing-the-consequences
• Brendan Mackey on as-disasters-and-heat-intensify-can-the-world-meet-the-urgency-of-the-moment-at-the-cop28-climate-talks
• skeptical science on at-a-glance-evidence-for-global-warming
• renew economy on small-modular-nuclear-reactors-a-history-of-failure
• ocean acidification on new-edition-of-the-oa-icc-highlights-may-september-2023
• real climate on science-denial-is-still-an-issue-ahead-of-cop28
• Stephanie Fillion on inside-tangled-negotiations-global-plastic-treaty

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• some
  
• some-people-have-no-cell-phone-and-never-check-their-email-before-4pm
  
• rewriting-a-title-and-abstract-to-a-scientific-paper
  
• book-on-stan-r-and-python-by-kentaro-matsuura
  
• guns-race-and-stats-the-three-deadliest-weapons-in-america
  
• why-i-continue-to-support-the-science-reform-movement-despite-its-flaws
  
• back-to-basics-how-is-statistics-relevant-to-scientific-discovery-2
  
• effective-number-of-parameters-in-a-statistical-model
  
• russells-paradox-of-ghostwriters
  
• statschat on detecting-chatgpt
• the conversable economist on andrew-gelman-any-sufficiently-crappy-research-is-indistinguishable-from-fraud
• freakometrics on fondation scor

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on my-favorite-non-classical-music-of-the-year-2023, everyday-freedom-by-philip-k-howard
• Maria Farrell on the-last-days-of-literary-friction

vox wonk

• what-puzzle-unravelling-instabilities-uk-phillips-curves
  
• transition-global-circular-economies-waste-batteries-and-extended-producer
  
• making-our-homes-greener-impact-minimum-energy-efficiency-regulations
  
• inflation-not-equal-all
  
• government-redistribution-and-development-global-perspective-taxes-transfers-and
  
• political-economy-social-media-new-ebook
  
• minimum-wage-policy-and-labour-tax-evasion
  
• climate-and-conflict-why-cop-needs-be-reformed
  
• inferring-societys-favourites-tariff-policy
  
• inflation-then-1979-85-and-now-2020-23-why-it-easier-fight-inflation-today
  
• supply-chain-disruptions-shocks-links-and-hidden-exposure
  
• trends-and-inequality-lifetime-earnings-france
  
• global-r
  
• transmission-interest-rate-hikes-depends-level-central-bank-reserves-held-banks
  

A bit more on the high court decision

 I got more than a little annoyed by both the Opposition and the government about the implications of the high court decision.

The Opposition believes these people are hardened criminals.  Err no hardened criminals are not released from gaol after serving their sentence. A few facts to state. No-one has stated how many of all the people releaseased were ever convicted of offences. The State needs evidence to stop people being freed from gaol after serving their sentence. This can be how they behaved and are behaving in gaol.

Without any reason it is illegal to keep people in prison after someone has served their sentence. It appears the Opposition and the Government wants this to occur to many if not all the people concerned.

You cannot have one rule for Australian citizens under the law but another for non-citizens if you claim to be a civilised society.

I should add electronic ankle bracelets are rarely used in NSW and only in cases where officials want to make sure where people who committed very serious crimes amybe for possibly a year. In this case it is being applied to people who have not even committed an offence.

I do not understand Michele Bullock

 Okay I admit I did not want her to be governor. As far as I was concerned leadership at the RBA need new blood.

However her latest explanation of inflation just does not make sense.

Inflation was originally a supply side shock with similarities to the 70s. She now asserts it is home grown . BUT domestic demand is slowing fast. Passing on riding prices needs a strong economy like it was LAST year not a weakening one as it is now. Check out the Budget or RBA's forecasts if you want to.

She is talking tough on interest rate rises when she does not have to. Monetary policy works with a lag. Just one of those things are all those on fixed rated that have changed to floating rates over the year.

The monthly CPI come out today ( which should be the same as the quarterly but is not) and we shall get our first bit of inflation on whether the RBA is correct or not.

The Murray Darling plan

 The Minister announced a new plan for the Murray Darling yesterday.

HERE is a good article on it.

I never cease to be amazed by people who think the Murray Darling is a magic pudding. It needs water to allow people along the rivers to use it as water let alone to be used by farmers etc.

Some people seem to think it does not matter how much water you take out of the rivers it will be okay.

That is nuts 

Bowen's new path

 Chris Bowen has set a new path for renewables.

Here is a bunch of different views on it.

• the-government-will-underwrite-risky-investments-in-renewables-heres-why-thats-a-good-idea
  
• bowen-has-put-a-rocket-under-big-renewables-small-scale-market-must-be-next
  
• how-to-ensure-bowens-underwriting-scheme-doesnt-create-another-snowy-2-0-debacle
  
• bowen-dumps-ret-for-32-gw-of-auctions-in-massive-policy-shift-to-fast-track-renewables
  

Around the Traps 24/11/23

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Sam Roggeveen on china-s-sonar-pulse-poses-another-test-australia-s-will, china-s-sonar-pulse-poses-another-test-australia-s-will
• Mark the Ballot on updated-polling-charts, morgan-poll
• Raina McIntyre on with-covid-surging-should-i-wear-a-mask
• Dennis Muller on abc-chief-is-right-impartiality-is-paramount-when-reporting-the-israel-gaza-war
• Helen Bird on the-optus-chief-was-right-to-quit-but-real-change-is-unlikely-at-the-telco-until-bigger-issues-are-fixed
• Rahman Yaacob on sonar-reports-much-more-blip-australia-s-relations-china
• Stuart Murray on what-roles-should-sport-play-australia-s-image-diplomacy
• Peter Hannan on australian-electricity-networks-raked-in-2bn-in-superprofits-from-customers-thinktank-says
• Peter Martin on why-further-rba-interest-rate-hikes-are-less-likely-now-than-even-1-week-ago
• croaking cassandra on house-prices-3, windfall-taxes
• Hassan Vally on should-we-still-be-using-rats-to-test-for-covid-4-key-questions-answered
• David Tuffley on an-expert-reviews-the-governments-7-year-plan-to-boost-australias-cyber-security-here-are-the-key-takeaways
• Suzanne Rutland on the-long-dark-history-of-antisemitism-in-australia
• Peter Hurley and Melissa Tham on the-productivity-commission-wants-all-australian-kids-to-have-access-to-3-days-of-early-learning-and-care-a-week
• Simon Orme on super-profits-reach-11bn-monopoly-power-networks-exploit-system-failures

OZ Climate

• nsw-planning-backflips-on-wind-energy-map-messaging-everywhere-is-now-suitable
  
• solar-smashes-more-records-as-coal-power-sent-to-another-new-low
  
• the-future-of-energy-is-community-energy-and-100-per-cent-renewable
  
• macquarie-launches-new-renewables-business-with-4gw-of-wind-solar-and-battery-projects
  
• act-adds-new-24-mwh-battery-as-it-expands-landfill-gas-generation
  
• hard-to-fathom-six-wind-farms-in-doubt-in-tasmania-as-transmission-plans-change
  
• liddell-to-host-giant-battery-after-agl-and-akaysha-win-australias-biggest-capacity-tender
  
• bowen-dumps-ret-for-32-gw-of-auctions-in-massive-policy-shift-to-fast-track-renewables
  
• nsw-just-got-three-huge-batteries-for-next-to-nothing-time-now-to-dump-coalkeeper-2-0
  
• how-to-ensure-bowens-underwriting-scheme-doesnt-create-another-snowy-2-0-debacle
  
• bowen-has-put-a-rocket-under-big-renewables-small-scale-market-must-be-next
  
• Ralph Trancoso on our-new-high-resolution-climate-models-are-a-breakthrough-in-understanding-australias-future
• Tony Wood on the-government-will-underwrite-risky-investments-in-renewables-heres-why-thats-a-good-idea

Northern America

• Shirin Ali on trump-trial-news-georgia-rico-case-testimony-leak
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-does-the-fed-deserve-credit-for-the-disinflation
• the dig on zeke-faux-talks-number-go-up thanks Brad
• slow boring on slow-borings-fourth-year
• noahopinion on the-roaring-20s-are-back-on-track
• Emily Stewart on labor-market-employment-inflation-sentiment-economy-bad-polls
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-sec-jarkesy-donald-trump-authoritarian-unitary-executive
• Robert Katzberg on dc-circuit-court-trump-gag-order-lose
• Peter Werner on trump-becoming-frighteningly-clear-about-what-he-wants
• the conversable economist on no-the-american-dream-is-not-about-getting-rich
• Jeet Heer on anti-defamation-league-musk-israel
• the conversable economist on an-economist-chews-over-thanksgiving-11
• Brad De Long on understanding-e-current-stance-of-monetary-policy
• Dennis Wamstead on us-power-sector-transition-drives-forward

Europe

• aporia on why-the-land-of-the-mafia-has-oddly-murder-rates Thanks Nick
• stumbling and mumbling on two-types-of-politics
• Ellen Ioannes on rishi-sunak-suella-braverman-tory-party-united-kingdom
• Mathew Sussex on why-the-us-and-its-partners-cannot-afford-to-go-soft-on-support-for-ukraine-now
• Jen Kirby on 20-days-in-mariupol-documentary-russia-ukraine-war
• Geoffrey Wheatcroft on the-collaborator-in-chief-the-trial-of-marshal-petain
• Catherine de Vries on geert-wilders-how-election-victory-in-the-netherlands-for-party-for-freedom-fits-into-a-wider-picture-of-european-radical-right-populism
• desmog on revealed-scale-of-the-telegraphs-climate-change-propaganda
• James empty blog on vallance-vs-vallance-vs-sage

Asia

• Jonathan Guyer on us-weapons-israel-biden-package-explained
• Lydia Khalil on war-gaza-has-not-destroyed-normalisation-now
• Neeraj Manhas on fragile-lifeline-india-china-must-collaborate-water
• Dennis Altmann et al on 10-books-to-help-you-understand-israel-and-palestine-recommended-by-experts
• Ran Porat on under-pressure-netanyahu-agrees-to-a-ceasefire-and-hostage-deal-with-hamas-are-his-days-now-numbered
• Shaun Cameron on why-myanmar-s-new-deep-sea-port-such-hot-property
• David Vallance and Teesta Prakash on run-out-modi-s-cricket-dream-over
• Nicole Narea on israel-palestine-peace-talks-deal-timeline
• Zack Beauchamp on israel-hamas-hostage-deal-cease-fire
• Abdallah Fayyad on palestinian-prisoners-israel-administrative-detention
• Jeet Heer on israel-gaza-propaganda-biden
• Donald Rothwell on there-has-been-much-talk-of-war-crimes-in-the-israel-gaza-conflict-but-will-anyone-actually-be-prosecuted
• Christopher Bluth on gaza-war-how-representative-is-hamas-of-ordinary-palestinians
• Daniel Flitton on delicate-dance-latest-india-allegations-test-rules

Wonk

• Louise Liebeskind on if-scientists-were-angels Thanks Nick
• Phillip Cunliffe on why-ukraine-realists-lost-it-over-gaza Thanks Nick 
• The palladium letter on what-botswana-can-teach-us-about-political-stability Thanks Nick
• The Economist on donald-trump-poses-the-biggest-danger-to-the-world-in-2024
• Tim Harford on why-are-some-jobs-so-greedy
• sandwichman on growth-below-zero-and-development-of-productive-forces
• Tyler Cowen on the-cross-sectional-implications-of-the-social-discount-rate
• Stephan Lewardowsky and John Cook on disinformation-campaigns-are-undermining-democracy-heres-how-we-can-fight-back
• Lautoaro Grinspan on argentina-election-javier-milei-right-youth
• Sam Halvorsen on new-argentinian-president-javier-milei-promises-to-take-a-chainsaw-to-countrys-crippled-economy
• the conversable economist on south-africas-economy-30-years-since-apartheid
• Mainly Macro on why-does-political-right-have-such-a-problem-with-reality
• noahopinion on politicized-science-inevitably-tends-towards-pseudoscience
• Nicolas Niarohos on in-congos-cobalt-mines-cobalt-red-siddharth-kara
• John Quiggin on in-defence-of-effective-altruism
• Ricardo Hausman on how-to-think-about-industrial-policy

General

• popular information on these-companies-spent-over-100-million-to-avoid-accountability Thanks Nick
• Christine Erbe on what-is-a-sonar-pulse-and-how-can-it-injure-humans-under-water

Climate

• Jurgen Knauer on plants-are-likely-to-absorb-more-co-in-a-changing-climate-than-we-thought-heres-why
• real climate on clauser-ology-cloudy-with-a-chance-of-meatballs
• Celeste Young and Roger Jones on denial-is-over-climate-change-is-happening-but-why-do-we-still-act-like-its-not
• Andrew King on in-september-we-went-past-1-5-degrees-in-november-we-tipped-over-2-degrees-for-the-first-time-whats-going-on
• ocean acidification on new-edition-of-the-oa-icc-highlights-may-september-2023
• science of doom on extreme-weather-17-modeling-tropical-cyclones
• skeptical science on at-a-glance-sensitivity, nca5-regions
• Rachel Standish on if-we-do-it-right-we-can-replant-trees-and-shrubs-to-store-carbon-and-restore-biodiversityand 
• Then Theres Physics on rcp4-5-ssp2-4-5

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• check this out
  
• open-letter-on-the-need-for-preregistration-transparency-in-peer-review
  
• i-disagree-with-geoff-hinton-regarding-glorified-autocomplete
  
• brian-nosek-on-here-are-some-ways-of-making-your-study-replicable
  
• dorothy-bishop-on-the-prevalence-of-scientific-fraud
  
• stabbers-gonna-stab-fraud-edition
  
• the-rise-and-fall-of-seth-roberts-and-the-shangri-la-diet
  
• more-on-the-so-called-rigor-enhancing-practices-in-quantitative-psychology-research
  
• of-course-its-preregistered-just-give-me-a-sec
  
• in-all-seriousness-whats-usc-gonna-do-about-its-plagiarizing-professor
  
• zipfs-law-and-heapss-law-also-when-is-big-as-bad-as-infinity
  
• what-are-the-important-parts-of-statistics
  
• Marc Bellemare on research ethics in applied economics
• statschat on whole-lotta-baseball
• freakometrics on measuring and mitigating biases in motor insurance pricing

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews

• institutions-finance-and-war
  
• enlightened-economist-prize-longlist-2023
  
• Mark Pierce on practising-politics-moral-wilderness
• Tyler Cowen on my-favorite-fiction-books-of-2023, best-non-fiction-books-of-2023, saints-scholars-and-schizophrenics

Vox Wonk

• tackling-gender-gaps-italian-labour-market-evidence-and-policy-implications
  
• role-children-shaping-gender-gaps-latin-american-labour-markets
  
• globalisation-and-servitisation-firms-drive-entry-cross-border-data-transfers
  
• going-low-long-reversal-rate-real
  
• origins-monetary-policy-disagreement-role-supply-and-demand-shocks
  
• green-transition-and-geopolitical-tensions
  
• labour-markets-green-economy
  
• global-ai-regulation-race-why-eu-should-focus-data-quality-and-liability-rules
  
• modest-recovery-ahead-after-challenging-year
  
• environmental-impact-housing-and-heating
  
• distributional-consequences-technology-shocks-through-labour-reallocation
  

MSNBC

 We get optusnet here at home. Part of the program is getting MSNBC. Okay we got it so we can watch the EPL!

Unquestionably the star of MSNBC is Ari Melber. He has an impressive legal background and it shows when he is interviewing. Trump's legal troubles has been a boon to Melber. He has outstanding legal experts to draw on and his questions are questions you want answered. He has questionable musical tastes but always likes to bring in lyrics to an interview.  I dol ike watching him.

Lawrence O'Donnell is another star. He does have experience in working on the Hill. although he has no legal background he too asks the questions you want answers too. His access to MSNBC's legal analysts is something he uses to his advantage.

I can't say I am impressed with many others but these two are top dollar so to speak.

A Haunting in Venice plus Roslyn Carter

 On monday night I watched a Haunting in Venice with my oldest son after missing it at the cinema.

It is the best of Branagh's Hercule Poirot films for a number of reasons. He has nailed Poirot. The choosing of people for the main roles was outstanding. Tina Fey and Michelle Yeoh ( whom I got to know from Star Trek Discovery where she was terrific ) are standouts.

The film is not too long and never boring. It is on disney so if you can afford it watch it.

Roslyn Carter died recently. She really did start the role of the first lady doing good works. Although she gave her husband plenty of political advice as she would often say he did not always take it! She was not overtly political possibly because she did not posses the intellect of a Hilary Clinton possibly because she di not think the first lady should be political. either way I doubt if we shall see the like of her again.

The high court decision

 The high court made a decision which has allowed some 94 non-citizens to be free as they determined only courts can impose a sentence on anyone in australia. It appears some of them were dangerous criminals. They were found guilty of murder, rape and child molestation .

A few points. All of them had served their sentences for the charges they were found guilty of. The Opposition are saying they should still be in detention. This would mean they are still being punished. That is there would be  one law for citizens and another for non-citizens ( and if put into practice undoubtedly would lead to another high court case.)

Most people who serve their sentences are then allowed back into the community. If the authorities believe the people are still dangerous they must remain in gaol. If not they go back to the community. They have to give reasons why this is occuring. Please note the Opposition are saying the convicted people must give evidence to show why they can go back into the community AFTER they have served their sentence.

Also important to people convicted of murder, rape or child sex offences regularly are let out into the community each year in Australia. no-one is worried about them. Imposing much stricter conditions on all 94 people ( not just the previous dangerous ones) gets into perilous legal territory and is of course totally unfair. The law being different to different people. 

I find it shocking the Opposition would lie so uncermonus ly about these people and the government so weak in response.

Trump is bad for democracy

 The Economist has an article donald-trump-poses-the-biggest-danger-to-the-world-in-2024. It isan interesting and thought provoking article. I am in agreement.

Ssso let me be clear.

Trump like any other tinpot dictator has authoritarian tendencies which he is no longer hiding. I have talked about this before and I am not as worried as some. A President cannot automatically indict anyone in the USA.  A grand jury has to agree to it and that needs evidence. Like all would be and actual dictators he is very insecure and thus needs people to swear loyalty to him not the position. This is why he so desperately want trump loyalists to be in so many public service positions.

Could he find so many trump loyalists to fill all the vacancies that would occur during his own night of the longknives.  Probably not and it is likely they would be of low quality. There would be a lot of court battles. I doubt if the judges, appeals courts or even the Supreme court would move straight into the Trump camp like they did in Germany in the 1930s.

Most of the Republican party are in the anti-democratic camp so the politics would favour Trump. If Republicans are in control there would be no impeachment nor conviction despite overwhelming evidence.

Where Trump is very bad for democracy is on the world stage. Just as various governments now use alleged voter fraud as a pretence to ignore election results they could imitate trump is all his guises and merely say they are copying what is happening in the USA.

Domestically one could never vote for the republicans because of their anti-democratic tendencies. This is not just bad for republicans it is bad for democrats!

Of course id yanks are sensible they won't vote for Trump and all this would be academic. We can only hope.

Around the Traps 17/11/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mary Anne Kenny on the-high-court-has-decided-indefinite-detention-is-unlawful-what-happens-now
• Jane McAdam on australias-offer-of-climate-migration-to-tuvalu-residents-is-groundbreaking-and-could-be-a-lifeline-across-the-pacific
• Jennifer Lacy-Nicholls and Katherine Cullerton on whos-lobbying-whom-when-it-comes-to-alcohol-tobacco-food-and-gambling-firms-were-in-the-dark
• Lynley Wallis et al on our-mapping-project-shows-how-extensive-frontier-violence-was-in-queensland-this-is-why-truth-telling-matters
• Miah Hammond-Errey and Tom Barrett on what-can-should-we-expect-australia-s-new-cyber-security-strategy
• Richard Dunley on australia-needs-resource-merchant-fleet
• Mark the Ballot on resolve-strategic-5743
• croaking cassandra on fiscal-challenges-and-the-foreign-buyers-tax , shameless-central-bankers
• Peter Martin on we-could-make-most-australians-richer-and-still-save-billions-its-not-too-late-to-fix-the-stage-3-tax-cuts
• Helen Bird on the-optus-outage-shows-us-the-perils-of-having-vital-networks-in-private-hands
• Daniel Flitton on foreign-policy-case-pm-spend-more-time-home
• Jago Dodson on the-government-just-killed-50-infrastructure-projects-what-matters-is-whether-it-will-fund-them-on-merit-from-now-on
• Renee Carey on engineered-stone-kills-tradies-bunnings-and-ikea-stopping-its-sales-is-a-big-win-for-public-health

OZClimate

• Adam Morton et al on how-a-false-claim-about-wind-turbines-killing-whales-is-spinning-out-of-control-in-coastal-australia
• Avril Horne and Andrew John on murray-darling-water-buybacks-wont-be-enough-if-we-cant-get-water-to-where-its-needed
• Mike Joy on were-burning-too-much-fossil-fuel-to-fix-by-planting-trees-making-net-zero-emissions-impossible-with-offsets
• Anna Skarbek et al on how-could-australia-actually-get-to-net-zero-heres-how
• Lachlan Carey on albanese-right-reject-fossil-fuel-phaseouts
• solar-records-tumble-across-the-grid-stretches-midday-gap-over-coal-to-nearly-10-gw
  
• renewables-hit-record-high-in-australia-as-coal-power-and-grid-demand-hit-new-lows
  
• flattening-the-solar-duck-why-households-should-also-face-negative-export-tariffs
  
• australias-biggest-coal-state-reaches-100-pct-potential-renewables-for-first-time
  
• australia-must-slash-emissions-by-68-pct-by-2030-quit-coal-five-years-later-to-meet-1-5c-target
  
• aemo-prepares-for-extreme-el-nino-summer-but-at-least-it-has-more-battery-storage
  
• farcical-wind-industry-in-shock-as-nsw-guidelines-say-no-to-new-wind-projects
  
• if-australia-is-serious-about-climate-it-must-get-serious-about-coal-mine-emissions
  
• nsw-is-in-danger-of-stuffing-up-the-transition-from-coal-to-renewables
  
• australia-has-everything-battery-storage-needs-except-the-ability-to-make-them-at-scale
  

Northern America

• Brad DeLong on draft-why-the-new-and-sharp-disjunction, draft-the-societal-logic-of-modes, 
• wonkette on are-you-okay-new-york-times Thanks Brad
• slow boring on what-happened-with-covid-npis-in Thanks Brad
• calculated risk on when-will-fed-cut-rates, cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-03
• Christian Paz on election-results-2023-abortion-republicans-suburban-vote
• David Smith on donald-trump-president-2024-biden-poll
• Jim Vandhei and Mike Allen on trump-loyalists-2024-presidential-election
• Bruce Ackerman on supreme-court-trump-cases-jan-6-repeat
• letters from America on november 13
• new deal democrat on except-for-fictitious-shelter-and-motor-vehicle-insurance-and-repairs-consumer-inflation-is-thoroughly-contained
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-vermin-authoritarian-democracy
• Steven Lubet on supreme-court-ethics-rules-clarence-thomas-rv
• Dahlia Lithwick on new-supreme-court-ethics-code-alito-thomas-roberts-nah
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-new-ethics-code-clarence-thomas-unenforceable
• John Cassiday on trumps-fascistic-rhetoric-only-emphasizes-the-stakes-in-2024
• Bill Haskell on using-the-fbi-to-go-after-political-opponents
• the conversable economist on national-flood-insurance-program-one-more-short-term-deadline , some-wage-inequality-ratios
• Jeet Heer on biden-lbj-war-domestic-liberalism, 
• Nitish Pahwa on truth-social-donald-trump-spac-trouble-twitter-facebook
• Aaron Renn on tyler-cowen-protestants Thanks Tyler
• Yair Rosenberg on elon-musks-disturbing-truth
• everything is horrible on americans-hate-the-economy-americans-love-the-economy Thanks Brad
• Drezners world on the-authoritarianism-is-the-point thanks Brad

Europe

• Jen Kirby on israel-gaza-european-union-germany-spain
• Tyler Cowen on should-i-keep-an-eye-on-spain-from-my-email
• Mainly Macro on current-uk-and-eu-stagnation-are-in-part-the-consequence-the -result-of-deficit-obsession
• Marc Collinson on david-cameron-lessons-from-other-ex-prime-ministers-who-returned-to-government
• Christopher Byrne on rishi-sunaks-decision-to-bring-back-david-cameron-has-distracted-us-all-for-now-but-the-long-term-strategy-is-flawed
• Saam Knight on how-gaza-and-the-british-right-split-london-on-armistice-day

Asia

• Sadiq Amini on where-did-afghan-refugees-go-where-next
• Ben Scott on israel-palestine-it-s-not-too-late-two-state-solution
• Steve Casey on 1947-now
• noahopinion on singapore-urbanism
• Rob Pinfold on israel-hamas-conflict-what-gaza-might-look-like-the-day-after-the-war
• Brace Stanhope on belt-road-20
• Nicole Narea and Sigal Samuel on genocide-israel-gaza-palestine
• Ian Parmeter on as-calls-grow-louder-for-a-gaza-ceasefire-netanyahu-is-providing-few-clues-about-his-strategy-or-post-war-plans
• Richard Heydarian on japan-s-new-golden-age-southeast-asia
• renew economy on chinas-emissions-set-to-fall-in-2024-after-record-growth-in-clean-energy
• Marika Sosnowksi on what-exactly-is-a-ceasefire-and-why-is-it-so-difficult-to-agree-on-one-in-gaza
• Henry Storey on india-s-gaza-dilemma
• Dahlia Scheindlin on israel-the-left-in-peril

Wonk

• Olivier Blanchard on if-markets-are-right-about-long-real-rates-public-debt-ratios-will-rise Thanks Brad
• Uday Mehta on the-unconsevative-edmund-burke Thanks Nick
• Samuel Harrison on edmund-burke-the-last-conservative Thanks Nick
• Brad DeLong on viewing-sparta-and-ancient-society , the-hinge-of-human-history-1870 , e-lumpenproletariat-e-dangerous-class
• Henry Farrell on the-religion-of-the-engineers-and-hayek-its-true-prophet
• noahopinion on dont-expect-too-much-from-the-us-china-detente
• the conversable economist on how-stable-are-stablecoins
• Jean Imbs and Laurent Pauwels on economic-costs-trade-sanctions
• Nick Bisley on biden-xi-meeting-at-apec-a-reminder-of-the-importance-of-global-summits-in-dangerous-times
• Mariza Cooray and Robert Walker on g20-s-approach-debt-has-failed

General

• the homebound symphony on but-even-at-night Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on why-we-cant-quit-email-even-though-we-hate-it
• Matilda Hatcher on master-and-commander-at-20-how-a-film-about-men-fighting-at-sea-is-actually-a-safe-harbour-of-positive-masculinity
• Van Newkirk on fisk-university-jubilee-singers-choir-history

Climate

• Deborah Lau on we-need-a-global-treaty-to-solve-plastic-pollution-acid-rain-and-ozone-depletion-show-us-why
• Real Climate on a-distraction-due-to-errors-misunderstanding-and-misguided-norwegian-statistics
• De smog on steingraber-study-overwhelming-harms-fracking
• David Lindenmeyer et al on fire-is-consuming-more-than-ever-of-the-worlds-forests-threatening-supplies-of-wood-and-paper
• Richard Levy et al on we-can-still-prevent-the-collapse-of-the-west-antarctic-ice-sheet-if-we-act-fast-to-keep-future-warming-in-check
• skeptical science on can-we-avoid-1-point-5-C
• Peter Sinclair on how-climate-models-succeed-and-where-they-have-not
• essay concerning on why-are-politicians-so-blase-about-the-risks-of-global-warming

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• simulations-of-measurement-error-and-the-replication-crisis-update
  
• another-reason-so-much-of-science-is-so-bad-bias-in-what-gets-researched
  
• multilevel-models-for-taxonomic-data-structures
  
• generically-partisan-polarization-in-political-communication
  
• what-happens-when-someone-you-know-goes-off-the-political-deep-end
  
• open-letter-on-the-need-for-preregistration-transparency-in-peer-review
  
• Kaiser Fung on exploring-text-summarization-using-llm-tools-part-4

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin

vox wonk

• economic-costs-trade-sanctions
  
• female-leadership-and-workplace-climate
  
• why-protectionists-sometimes-win-narrative-power-economic-nationalism
  
• effects-government-spending-through-production-network
  
• other-china-shock-how-surging-chinese-imports-transformed-global-agriculture
  
• unravelling-complexities-sanctions
  
• skills-race-machines-value-complementarity
  
• zero-sum-thinking-and-political-divides
  
• drinking-water-quality-and-its-impact-health-and-education
  
• rise-foreign-investment-screening-advanced-economies
  

Wage breakout don't think so

 We got WAGES data yesrday. Even though it was the largest rise in 26 years it was influenced by a number of one-offs. Indeed the annual rate of increase is likely to fall in coming quarters.

If there was a wages breakout going on it would be increasing.

A wages breakout needs organised labour and unions are at a very low ebb.  That being so wages breakout people do not understand what happened in the 1970s nor why it happened. That includes the RBA as well.

Problems for electricity this summer

 AEMO has concerns about electricity given El nino is coming.

I was struck that 13 yep that is 13 units from coal fired  power stations will be out of operation. Holy unreliability Batman

Making stuff up about offshore wind

 Here is a story I first heard on the ABC.

how-a-false-claim-about-wind-turbines-killing-whales-is-spinning-out-of-control-in-coastal-australia

The original post on facebook has been deleted as they realised they were wrong!

A few things to cogitate on. even though it is clear the claims about whales are completely bogus that claptrap is still being used by people opposed to offshore wind. 

The Opposition has people who know how to research whether a study has been done  ( it is not very hard) and they are still using this 'argument'.

Isael/ Gaza again

 two interesting articles

• israel-palestine-it-s-not-too-late-two-state-solution
  
• 1947-now
  

Two related things from me. Israel's response thus far has been barbaric. A civilised country does not kill umpteen palestinians to allegedly kill one hamas person. Attacking churches, hospitals ,schools is a ar crime in Ukraine. It is the same in Gaza.

It is very hard to have a two state solution when Israel keeps on stealing property from palestinians.

Around the Traps 10/11/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oty,Oy,Oy

• croaking cassandra on unnatural-disasters, willis-as-minister-of-finance
• Mark the Ballot on a-gaussian-process-latent-variable-model-for-smoothing-opinion-polls
• Kevin Bonham on voice-referendum-turnout-and-informal-votes
• John Quiggin on westpacs-profit-jump-share-price-rba
• Jingdon Yuan on clear-change-in-australias-attitude-what-mattered-most-to-china-about-anthony-albaneses-visit
• Paul Haskall-Dowland et al on optus-blackout-explained-what-is-a-deep-network-outage-and-what-may-have-caused-it
• Alison Stieven-Taylor on in-a-crisis-optus-appears-to-be-ignoring-communications-101
• Jessica Marsh on australia-s-chance-show-global-leadership-rohingya-displacement
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-this-is-way-honeymoon-ended
• Mark Gregory on explainer-what-is-the-core-network-that-was-crucial-to-the-optus-outage
• Peter Roberts on optus-said-it-didnt-have-the-soundbite-to-explain-the-crisis-we-should-expect-better

OZ Climate

• Reuben Finnighan on is-nuclear-the-answer-to-australias-climate-crisis
• Andrew McIntosh and Don Butler on the-unsafe-safeguard-mechanism-how-carbon-credits-could-blow-up-australias-main-climate-policy
• record-month-delivers-all-time-high-for-wind-and-solar-generation-20-year-low-for-gas
  
• record-year-for-rooftop-solar-growth-october-installation-data-bodes-well
  
• bowen-blindsided-by-bluefloat-as-offshore-wind-debate-gets-really-weird
  
• australias-big-batteries-what-do-they-do-and-how-do-they-make-money
  
• bowen-says-accelerating-switch-to-renewables-essential-to-keep-the-lights-on
  
• disingenuous-actors-joyce-lnp-called-out-for-spread-of-wind-and-solar-myths
  
• bigger-or-better-are-newer-wind-farms-outperforming-older-ones
  
• queensland-grid-hits-a-new-solar-peak-71-2-per-cent-of-state-demand
  

Northern America

• Brad De Long on this-really-is-what-a-macroeconomic-soft-landing-would-look-like
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-fed-approaches-the-end-of-the-rate-hiking-cycle
• Rachel Cohen on ohio-election-results-issue-1-abortion-virginia-kentucky-roe-dobbs
• Jill Fillipovic on election-results-abortion-ohio-virginia-kentucky
• Dahlia Lithwick on sam-alito-clarence-thomas-domestic-abuser-gun-rights
• Jeet Heer on gop-america-first-isolationism, mike-johnson-cnp-christian-nationalism
• the conversable economist on how-fast-are-americans-drawing-down-their-pandemic-savings
• Barry Eichengreen on uncertainty-reigns-in-us-treasury-bond-market Thanks Brad
• the status kuo on trump-blustered-and-blundered Thanks Brad
• Joel Eissenberg on election-analysis-from-heather-cox-richardson

Europe

• Ian Hill on russia-seeks-benefit-gaza-conflict
• noahopinion on how-ireland-got-so-rich
• Menzie Chinn on euro-area-treading-water
• Mainly Macro on how-could-johnson-have-become-prime-minister

Asia

• Patrick O'Leary on the-un-is-calling-the-israel-hamas-war-a-graveyard-of-children-in-an-adult-conflict-the-young-are-suffering-most
• Khang Vu on how-vulnerable-south-korea-hamas-style-attack-north
• Ellen Ioannes on israel-hamas-war-iran-hezbollah-hassan-nasrallah, israel-hamas-war-civilian-infrastructure-ceasefire-protests
• Jonathan Guyer on israel-hamas-war-gaza-ceasefire-history-explained
• noahopinion on the-middle-east-is-getting-older
• Peter Dorman on israel-and-palestine-thought-experiment
• Henryk Szadziewski on both-the-us-and-australia-are-adamant-the-pacific-matters-but-only-one-is-really-moving-the-dial
• Bobo Lo on gaza-re-imagining-international-order
• David Mathieson on myanmar-new-abnormal
• Mick Ryan on israel-military-plan-gaza-eliminating-hamas-social-remedies
• Sari Bashi on gazas-blocked-relief
• Fintan O'Toole on the-many-and-the-few-israel-gaza
• Marsha Gessen on annals-of-human-rights/inside-the-israeli-crackdown-on-speech
• Shuli Ren and Elaine He on how-xi-jinping-led-china-economy-astray thanks Brad
• Rahman Yacob on lawrence-wong-s-ascent-singapore-s-4th-generation-leader
• Zack Beauchamp on west-bank-israeli-settler-palestine-gaza-war-violence

Wonk

• global inequality on there-is-no-exit-for-dictators
• Tim Harford on netflix-and-bill-the-high-price-of-a-subscription-lifestyle
• the conversable economist on fall-2023-journal-of-economic-perspectives-free-online , television-makes-impossible-the-determination-of-who-is-better-than-whom
• noahopinion on liberalism-is-losing-the-information-war
• James Romm on authoritarianisms-emblem-the-fasces-t-corey-brennan
• Jonathan Levy on gas-industry-reached-for-tobacco-playbook-after-science-showed-that-gas-stoves-are-harmful

General

• Ed Caesar on the-kingpin-who-kidnapped-migrants-for-ransom

Climate

• Robert Walker and Melanie Pill on world-energy-outlook-good-bad-ugly
• climate citizen on warning-of-health-crisis-if-we-dont
• and Then Theres Physics on what-does-net-zero-actually-mean
• mohyu on october-global-surface-templs-down-frrom-september
• Tom Doig on if-the-worlds-systems-are-already-cracking-due-to-climate-change-is-there-a-post-doom-silver-lining
• met office on 2023-on-track-to-be-earths-warmest-year-on-record

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• ok-this-time-theyre-taking-sabermetrics-a-bit-too-far
  
• if-someone-were-to-sneak-into-add-health-hq-and-replace-the-data-there-with-random-numbers-and-not-tell-anyone-the-numbers-of-papers-publishing-from-ad-health-data-would-not-change
  
• you-can-tell-that-this-bret-guy-never-tried-driving-on-the-george-washington-bridge-on-rush-hour
  
• the-importance-of-group-level-predictors-in-multilevel-models
  
• experimental-reasoning-in-social-science
  
• for-how-many-iterations-should-we-run-markov-chain-monte-carlo
  
• malcolm-gladwell-is-my-new-hero
  
• you-need-16-times-the-sample-size-to-estimate-an-interaction-than-to-estimate-a-main-effect-explained
  

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• politics-and-economics
  
• pricing-the-priceless
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• high-speed-rail-catalyst-chinas-export-growth
  
• consequences-unpaid-blood-plasma-donations
  
• alex-cukierman-pioneer-central-bank-independence
  
• telling-american-dream-story-and-local-entrepreneurship
  
• transatlantic-leverage-over-chinese-steel-and-aluminium-producers-unlikely-induce
  
• real-exchange-rate-and-international-reserves-era-financial-integration
  
• unremunerated-reserve-requirements-make-fight-against-inflation-fairer-and-more
  
• housing-old-age-and-effect-health-shock
  
• financial-fraud-developing-countries-common-scam-detection-tips-do-not-help
  
• product-market-traps-case-social-media
  
• us-economics-professions-socioeconomic-diversity-problem
  
• productivity-employment-nexus-micro-macro-insights-13-countries