Thursday, 31 August 2023

Around the Traps 1/9/23

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Diane Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 30 August 2023

Reducing exposure from China

 Noah Smith writes a great article in noahopinion ( get it) about the decoupling essentially from China.

What has shocked me is the lack of speed in this. 

  • Covid showed up supply chain problems with China.
  •  It imposition of tariffs on Australian goods surely showed up the political risk of using China.
  •  Its belligerence towards Taiwan surely exacerbates this as well.

Are capitalists that stupid ot do they simply not understand risk?

Tuesday, 29 August 2023

The Voice

 Apparently the PM will announce we will have the referendum on October 14.  ( Why do so many overseas countries have elections and votes like this on a working day. It makes no sense at all.)

I should firstly say i have always thought the referendum proposal would fail. It is simply too easy for people to make up reasons why the change is to be opposed. Surely the referendum on the republic showed that. Secondly it is false to say you need bi-partisan support for it to get up. In 1967 it did not occur despite bi-partisan support for the FIRST question ( usually ignored).

I am also having deja vu. some people keep on saying reject this proposal and we will come back with a better one. I kept on hearing that false statement when we were 'debating' the republic.

I am also amused by those aboriginal elites criticising Aboriginals supping the proposal as elites. It was similar in the republic referendum.

I can't get over how poor the spokesmen and women are. Warren Mundine is not even articulate and has never been impressive so how is he a front man? Whilst Price is articulate she is frequently shown to be wrong.

There was a time opponents kept on saying people were saying they were racists. They offered no evidence and I admit I never saw it or heard it but wella. They produce a racist ad in the form of a cartoon that Bill Leak would have been proud of.

We have also had at least two people associated with the no campaign making racist comments. Note however it has had little effect on voting intention. This means most people have rightly come to the conclusion that the no campaign is not overly racists but only at the margins.

Lost in all this is how to bring Aboriginals up to the standards most other Australians have.


Whoopsy I should have added Burney has been hopeless as the minister. McCarthy is way more impressive.

Monday, 28 August 2023

Climate Change in Australia

 Ryan Neelam writes a fascinating and well thought out article for the much vaunted Lowy Institute.


It is a good read

Sunday, 27 August 2023

Ticks and Crosses

 Kevin Bonham comes to our aid to bring clarification to the issue of ticks and crosses in the upcoming referendum.

A good educative read.

Thursday, 24 August 2023

Around the Traps 25/8/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Dianne Coyle

  • nuttin

Vox Wonk

Wednesday, 23 August 2023

Has Putin killed another person who was a problem

 Prigozhin is dead . One of ten in an aeroplane that crashed.

Putin di call him a traitor and the ,an di say the reasons for invading Ukraine ( joining NATO made them an imminent threat and the country was ruled by nazis ) was shite.

Here is two opinions on what has occurred

  1. prigozhins-death-would-leave-lasting-mark-on-russian-army-and-elite
  2. prigozhin-plane-crash-putin-kremlin
A few points. Putin is a lonely and paranoid man. He cannot trust anyone. This is what naturally occurs when you attempt to murder any possible opponent.
I di not know until quite recently quite a few Russian generals who failed in Ukraine also mysteriously dies as well. At the very least this will mean no russian general wil untake any risky venture. They will minimise risk to the extreme.
The only way Putin can succeed in Ukraine is for trump to win the US Presidency and he thus weakens NATO and no longer gives any resources to Ukraine.

Late articles

Tuesday, 22 August 2023

the Murray-Darling situation

 The Minister released a 'new' position on the Murray Darling river. Jamie PIttock gives us a good review of the whole problem.

Sitting in my room in Sydney it appears to me most people who make a living from taking the water from the Murray-Darling rivers appear to have no idea of the health of the two rivers and more importantly how to keep it healthy for river communities. They appear to think they can keep on taking water from the rivers and there are no repercussions.

Until they realise this we wil continue to have problems that are never addressed.

Monday, 21 August 2023

Billy Joel

 A very long time ago I went to a import shop  ( what is a import shop and why did they exist is a long story) and bought Piano Man , the LP. It wasn't sold locally as yet.

I listened to a number of songs and bought the LP.

This song is Captain Jack a song about heroin. This is Joel at his best and shows what he could have been.

so sad.




Sunday, 20 August 2023

Womens world cup washup

 I was glad Spain won the World Cup. They WERE the team that attempted to play the beautiful game and almost succeeded.

How in the hell did the  lineswoman and VAR miss the english goalkeeper being way off herl one for the penalty!

The quality of play increased almost exponentially from the Olympic Games BUT it is still woefully short of what is needed. Too many times the back four would pass the ball amongst them sleves and hoof into the opponents half and to the Opposition. too may times we say turnovers occur under no pressure whatsoever.

I am somewhat bemused by the cry for more money to be directed towards women football.

Why does the federal government have to do this? Sport is not an essential activity in the econmy. Why does the government have to step in? Why cannot the sport direct funds to women?

Why does the Federal government have to direct funds to professional sports where even women can earn very good money. It does not do this for teachers or nurses why footballers?

Sports in this country are very good at socialising the losses and privatising the profits. note how the AFL and NRL DEMAND that government build stadiums to house their games. They are world champions at rent seeking!

Thursday, 17 August 2023

Around the Traps 18/8/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

vox wonk

Wednesday, 16 August 2023

In truth we were never going to win

 Too many people had rose coloured glasses about the Matildas.

Going into the game we had a defence that was leaky and that came back to haunt us. We gave away possession far too many times when not under any pressure and if the opposition  man marked Ford and Raso we had few avenues to attack.

There were two big assets. Kerr is in a class of her own when it comes to scoring ( and what a goal it was last night ) and Fowler was something special as a player although her time has yet to come. She made some nice touches particularly in the second half.

We should also remember England had THREE of their best players out of the match.

We also had the chances to win but could not convert. ( Was Kerr tired when she missed?)

It is ironic that our best player in the last world cup ( Carpenter) had an ordinary world cup this time and ended up costing us the game. Our lack of depth hurt us when Kennedy was forced out.

In truth we will not get this far again and perhaps not the USA either. Other nations are catching up Spain does play lovely football on occasions. They will get better as will  other nations in europe and South America.

The standard of football was much much better than occurred in the Olympics however there were few matches of quality in this World cup.  

In the end will you get up at an ungodly hour to watch the Matildas in the next world cup. I won't.


I am very remiss in not mentioning how inflexible Australia was in reacting to the English lineup. When we realised they were playing three at the back and two deep midfielders we did not change our formation. They consequently picked up the scraps all the time. this was a big mistake.

I should add also 7 should be shot for  making David Basheer their commentator. He is awful. If they could not get Simon Hill then Speedy was around. The Matildas deserved better.  

I should also add  I have read some players rating. Obviously they were at a different game. 

Tuesday, 15 August 2023

Another Trump indictment

 Trump ( and a lot of others) have been indicted by a grand jury in Georgia.

HERE is an article ranking how important each indictment is.

Without even attempting to be a legal scholar practising in the USA here is what I have picked up from listening to some respected ones.

The case in New York might well lose in the appeal courts even if a jury finds Trump guilty because of the way state and federal law is triangulated.

The case in florida is very tight and eventually would be found in their favour even if there is a rogue juror.

Given the Judges we can expect the cases to go Fed case in NY first, then the case in florida then Georgia and finally the 'state' case in NY.

The federal case in New York is very strong. the case in Georgia is also strong. If Trump runs in the Presidential election ( and some say he should be allowed to) and wins he would try to pardon himself.  I think we can see the present Supreme court would allow that. He cannot pardon himself or anybody else in the Georgia case.

If Trump actually believes he is facing trumped up cases ( pun intended) then he would want very speedy trials with the strong possibility of the case being thrown out as occurred when He directed his Justice Department to prosecute. Since he is doing the direct opposite we know this is complete shite.

He is also in the invidious position of not being able to testify. He is an inveterate liar and a prosecutor would eat him alive. 

I should have added his lawyers thus far have only argued political defences rarely a legal defence.


I also should have added Rudy is in deep trouble.

Monday, 14 August 2023

Climate Change and Extreme Heat

 Tamino at Open Mind has a wonderful post of the above topic. If you are wondering if variability has increased then look at the THIRD comment.

Sunday, 13 August 2023

The Matildas et al

 I looked at most articles on the poor match the Matildas had against France.

No-one but no-one wrote about the woeful refereeing performance. Could it be the fact she made decisions that favoured us almost all the time. She was either incompetent or worse. Two examples. Kennedy made a meal of a  miskick and grabbed the French woman's jersey. This is an automatic yellow card given where and when it occurred. NOTHING happened.

In the second half a French player was cut and bled when she tried to head a ball a Matildas player raised her boot to attempt to kick it. This should have been an indirect free kick. NOTHING happened.

The French have a very good reason to be very upset about the referee.  Mere competent refereeing could have meant a different result with their players having a different attitude.

As for the game we were lucky the French were not at their best. Before this game we put away most of our goal scoring chances. not this game. Nor could we score when Kerr came on the big MO changed our way.

I thought in the Olympic games Fowler was a talent in the making and I do feel she COULD become our greatest ever female player. She has wonderful skill for a female player and now we can add rare vision as well. Her penalty was fantastic

To go further we need both Kerr and Fowler to play as combined we should score first. We are poor at coming when we are behind. Too often we resort to the long ball for Kerr to run onto.

Whoopsy I forgot to mention there is a very good reason why we have had the smallest number of players that have played thus far. We do not have the quality! This may well hurst us.

We might win the world cup but I doubt it. I am wrong some times. Just ask my wife!

Thursday, 10 August 2023

Around the Traps 11/8/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

Northern America

Europe

Asia

Wonk

General

Climate

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

  • nuttin

Vox Wonk