Around the Traps 30/3/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Andy Marks and Tom Nance on after-12-years-in-opposition-grassroots-politics-restores-labor-to-power-in-new-south-wales
• Frank Bongiorno on australia-is-now-almost-entirely-held-by-labor-but-that-doesnt-necessarily-make-life-easier-for-leaders
• Ross Gittins on labor-is-just-pretending-to-be-tough-on-climate-change, voters-turn-from-big-parties-increasing-political-competition
• renew economy on never-mind-eraring-the-liddell-coal-closure-in-april-is-the-one-to-watch, fortescue-hails-green-iron-breakthrough-as-own-coal-free-tech-moves-to-pilot-phase, brookfield-seals-deal-for-origin-buyout-and-20-billion-renewables-splurge, rooftop-solars-dominant-summer-homes-and-businesses-outpower-brown-coal, from-coalition-fig-leaf-to-green-teal-alp-deal-a-closer-look-at-safeguard-mechanism-3-0, south-australia-about-to-take-another-big-step-towards-fossil-free-grid, safeguard-mechanism-still-has-a-big-methane-problem, electric-vehicles-batteries-on-wheels-can-make-grid-smaller-says-network-owner, australias-coal-mine-project-approval-list-is-a-climate-disaster, home-battery-installs-jump-55-pct-as-solar-households-turn-to-storage-in-record-numbers, too-much-solar-not-enough-wind-australias-big-renewable-dilemma
• Albert Van Djik et al on 2022-was-a-good-year-for-nature-in-australia-but-three-nasty-problems-remain
• Tony Wood on greens-will-back-labors-safeguard-mechanism-without-a-ban-on-new-coal-and-gas-thats-a-good-outcome
• Croaking Cassandra on rb-chief-economist-on-inflation, interesting-that-the-minister-of-finance-asked-for-advice
• Kate Crowley on australias-safeguard-mechanism-deal-is-only-a-half-win-for-the-greens-and-for-the-climate
• Gabrielle Appleby and Addie Synot on the-voice-what-is-it-where-did-it-come-from-and-what-can-it-achieve
• Jenny Gordon on economics-aukus
• Mark Kenny on safeguard-deal-shows-bandts-greens-party-has-come-of-age
• Peter Martin on inheritance-taxes-resource-taxes-and-an-attack-on-negative-gearing-how-top-economists-would-raise-20-billion-per-year
• Greg Jericho on ignore-the-doomsayers-the-sky-wont-fall-if-australian-workers-get-a-pay-rise
• Franz Jotzo on australia-will-have-a-carbon-price-for-industry-and-it-may-infuse-greater-climate-action-across-the-economy
• Simon Orme on monopoly-power-networks-should-not-continue-receive-supernormal-profits-while-households-pay-rising-electricity-bills

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on deposits-on-the-move
• noahopinion on why-not-put-tsmc-and-samsung-fabs-in-canada, why-americans-fear-the-ai-future
• Monica Potts on unions-have-been-under-attack-for-decades-but-michigan-just-gave-them-a-big-win
• the conversable economist on a-long-run-perspective-on-us-economic-growth, an-american-industrial-policy-experiment-begins
• Dennis Aftergut et al on mark-meadows-grand-jury-testimony-donald-trump-criminal-charges
• Alex Samuels on would-democrats-rather-face-donald-trump-or-ron-desantis-in-2024
• Christian Paz on house-republicans-hunter-biden-oversight-china-comer-jordan
• Nicole Narea on nashville-shooting-biden-assault-weapon-ban
• Alex Tabbarok on americas-zero-sum-economics-doesnt-add-up
• Tyler Cowen on regulation-cant-prevent-the-next-financial-crisis
• Jeet Heer on pence-desantis-trump-polls, abortion-democracy-voter-initiatives
• Mark Stern on maryland-court-reinstated-adnan-syed-conviction-absurd
• Fintan O'Toole on bump-and-grind
• Kalefa Sanneh on how-christian-is-christian-nationalism
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-braidwood-management-obamacare-reed-oconnor-birth-control-cancer-prep
• Nicole Narea and Ian Millhiser on trump-indicted-grand-jury-what-happens-next
• Andrew Prokop on trump-indictment-grand-jury-stormy-daniels-felony

Europe

• Olga Maxwell on in-russias-war-against-ukraine-one-of-the-battlegrounds-is-language-itself
• Mick Ryan on ukraine-2023-offensives-russia-retake-territory-west-war
• Mainly Macro on how-broadcasters-obsession-with-westminister-politics-repeatedly-fails-to-alert-thepublic-to-public-policy-failures-that-are-obvious-to-experts
• noahopinion on putin-is-a-rest-stop-on-the-road-of-postsoviet-collapse
• David Kramer et al on putin-russia-ukraine-war-us-western-support
• stumbling and mumbling on against-schoolteacher-politics

Asia

• Orville Schelling on xi-jinping-china-tragedy
• Richard Heydarian on philippines-best-friend-aukus-southeast-asia
• Divyanshum Jindal on catch-22-india-s-tech-ambitions
• Zack Beauchamp on rahul-gandhi-expelled-lok-sabha-narendra-modi, israel-protests-netanyahu-judicial-overhaul-general-strike-democracy
• Jonathan Guyer on why-israelis-protesting-netanyahu-far-right-government-judiciary-overhaul
• Mary Harris on israel-protests-shut-down-benjamin-netanyahu-judicial-reforms-democracy-doomed
• Henry Storey on india-s-delicate-dance-taliban
• Syed Fazl-E-Haider on china-trumpets-saudi-iran-deal-yet-much-credit-goes-pakistan
• Genevieve Donnellon-May on china-s-food-dilemma
• John Quiggin on climate-change-ironically-reduces-heat-south-china-sea
• Barak Ravid on netanyahu-judicial-overhaul-legacy-israel
• John Strawson on israel-protests-netanyahu-delays-judicial-reforms-over-fears-of-civil-war-but-deep-fault-lines-threaten-future-of-democracy
• Greg Earl on paying-new-thai-democracy
• Purva Jain on renewable-energy-only-sustainable-long-term-solution-meet-indias-rising-peak-power-demand

Wonk

• Eric Schiessler on on-large-language-modelss-delirium-with-hume-and-foucault
• second best on were-all-wittgensteinians-now thanks Brad
• Ben Scott on binary-error-how-why-governments-need-cyber-security-rethink
• John Quiggin on the-meta-view-from-meta-nowhere
• Margaret Levi and Henry Farrell on the moral economy of high tech modernism thanks Brad
• John Potter on long-covid-puts-some-people-at-higher-risk-of-heart-disease-they-need-better-long-term-monitoring
• Malloy Owen on the strange career of critical theory thanks Nick

General

• Tim Harford on why-children-can-be-better-than-adults-at-spotting-misinformation
• Vincent Ho on what-causes-hiccups-and-how-can-you-get-rid-of-them
• Clancy James on for-the-first-time-astronomers-have-linked-a-mysterious-fast-radio-burst-with-gravitational-waves

Climate

• stoat on ipcc-ar6-syn-goes-woo
• skeptical science on extreme-heat-europe-arctic-sea-ice
• Graham Readfearn on melting-antarctic-ice-predicted-to-cause-rapid-slowdown-of-deep-ocean-current-by-2050
• Joelle Gergis and Michael Green on fear-and-wonder-podcast-how-scientists-know-the-sea-is-rising
• Mathew England et al on torrents-of-antarctic-meltwater-are-slowing-the-currents-that-drive-our-vital-ocean-overturning-and-threaten-its-collapse

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• more-on-i-could-care-less-about-the-twin-primes-conjecture
  
• one-more-plea-to-teach-real-world-math-and-statistics-instead-of-derivatives-quadratic-equations-and-the-interior-angles-of-rhombuses
  
• multilevel modeling to make better decisions using data from schools
• concrete-values-like-freedom-and-equality-what-does-that-even-mean-the-challenge-of-criticizing-policies-without-considering-their-political-and-social-contexts
  
• messy-data-crashes-into-us
  
• some-nuggets-from-a-weeks-worth-of-comments
  
• replacing-the-zoo-of-named-tests-by-linear-models
  
• Kaiser Fung on by-how-much-did-observational-studies-over-estimate-covid-vaccine-effectiveness

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• then-and-now
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• understanding-impact-covid-19-supply-disruptions-exporters-global-value-chains
  
• balance-sheet-approach-fiscal-sustainability
  
• payment-versus-trading-stablecoins
  
• what-silicon-valley-bank-and-credit-suisse-tell-us-about-financial-regulations
  
• impact-short-sale-bans-during-crises-closer-look-2020-covid-crash-response
  
• foreign-workers-lead-better-products-more-trade-and-more-efficient-global-value
  
• slow-american-protectionist-turn
  
• 80s-feeling-how-get-serious-about-bank-reform-time-and-why-we-wont
  
• geo-economic-fragmentation-and-world-economy
  
• silicon-valley-banks-insolvency-highlights-risk-similar-investors
  
• geo-economic-fragmentation-implications-international-monetary-system
  
• tracking-global-dollar-cycle
  
• geo-economic-fragmentation-what-it-means-multilateralism
  
• tracking-global-dollar-cycle
  
• revisiting-productivity-dynamics-europe-new-measure-utilisation-adjusted-total-factor
  
• sovereign-debt-puzzles
  
• building-stronger-leader-subordinate-relationships-key-positive-workplace-culture
  

The Aston By-election plus

 The Aston by-election will be held on Saturday.

Forget about the ALP winning the seat. It won't happen. The Liberals will win. History tell us this.

At worst the vote will be the same as the election however they will probably gain a small swing.

Yeah i have heard the reasons why the Liberals may lose.

Tudge was a hypocrite. Having an adulterous affair whilst upholding family values. The voters knew that at the federal election.

His behaviour in robodebt was disgraceful.  Granted

Peter Dutton is unelectable. This is a by-election bot a federal election.

the State liberals are in disarray. Voters know the difference between state and Federal liberals.

The government is not at stake and voters like to give the government a black eye in by-elections.

Just on Federal politics i am struck that even now we have no duds as Ministers as yet and No opposition people who have shined in their new roles. This is most unusual.

Protectionism is on the rise

 Two great articles on how protectionism is on the rise in the USA.

Alex Tabbarok ( really Adam Posen) and 

Pascal Lamy

It is occurring here. the ALP is copying the stupid Morrison policy of making more stuff here. It has never worked, it doesn't work and will never work. It merely makes poor people pay more for seuff they buy!

The Safeguard Mechanism

 HERE is ross Gittins writing about the safeguard mechanism and other things climate the day before the deal.

Tony Wood is more optimistic although he had the benefit of understanding the deal.

The first thing to say it is not the best solution. The best solution would be a price on carbon. Thus we ask why won't the ALP introduce a price on carbon. They are fearful of the electoral consequences.

Alas the price on carbon like the GST was quite unpopular UNTIL its introduction. In both cases the public went ho hum and went on with life. People can only be wary of the electoral impact of anything if they think they are poor at selling something. The public has changed a lot since Abbott's act of treason in getting rid of the price on carbon. ( Just remember if Abbot has gotten his way then the impact of russia illegally invading Ukraine would have been similar to Europe and the UK!). The fact both the Teals and Greens won lower house seats means something.

Why oh why does this Government lack guts to do good policy.

The Productivity Commision recommended the safeguard mechanism be much more broad based. 

update:

Renew economy

some thoughts on the NSW election

 It was an election fought between two decent blokes.

the Its time factor was crucial to ALP winning.

Why were so many people saying the election was going to be close when the polls said otherwise.

One Nation performance was poor to what was promised.

Steve Whan is crucial to ALP performance in monaro.

Surely the LNP in Victoria and Queensland should take note of how Minns conducted his campaign.

Western Sydney had long memories of how the  last lockdown was conducted.

Around the Traps 23/3/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Daniel Hurst on coalitions-super-changes-will-affect-three-times-as-many-people-as-labors-plan-modelling-shows
• Stephen King on i-helped-write-the-productivity-commissions-5-year-productivity-review-heres-what-i-think-australia-should-do
• Leahn Ruppannar et al on the-great-resignation-didnt-happen-in-australia-but-the-great-burnout-did
• John Quiggin on 18-million-a-job-the-aukus-subs-plan-will-cost-australia-way-more-than-that
• John Edwards on limits-australia-s-submarine-industry
• Peter Tesch on aukus-pillars-hercules
• Croaking Cassandra on new-zealands-monetary-policy-mess
• Ross Gittins on handle-with-care, most-of-us-dont-really-want-to-be-rich
• renew economy on does-southern-australia-really-need-more-gas, how-solar-and-storage-developers-got-their-market-forecasts-completely-wrong, boom-cycle-means-82-pct-renewables-target-is-doable-says-regulator, hot-and-humid-autumn-sets-record-demand-levels-in-queensland-grid, researchers-urge-mandatory-scheme-to-ensure-solar-panels-are-recycled, solar-and-wind-still-best-bets-for-deep-rapid-and-low-cost-emission-cuts, solar-and-wind-power-through-energy-crisis-to-chart-record-renewables-growth, wind-farm-noise-not-harmful-to-health-new-study-finds-no-evidence-of-wind-turbine-syndrome, queensland-gets-ready-for-a-grid-without-coal, criminally-irresponsible-report-finds-methane-bomb-buried-in-safeguard-design
• James Dwyer on why-is-australia-buying-hundreds-of-missiles
• John Hawkins on credit-suisse-is-an-anomaly-why-australia-and-new-zealand-are-safe-from-bank-run-contagion
• Graham Edgar on the-great-southern-reef-is-in-more-trouble-than-the-great-barrier-reef
• Hugh White on aukus-commits-australia-fight-china-if-america-does-simple
• Greg Jericho on productivity-is-all-well-and-good-but-whats-in-it-for-australias-workers
• Mathew Sussex on time-to-grow-up-australias-national-security-dilemma-demands-a-mature-debate
• Paul Kildea on the-referendum-rules-have-been-decided-what-does-this-mean-for-the-voice
• Anne Twomey on we-now-know-exactly-what-question-the-voice-referendum-will-ask-australians-a-constitutional-law-expert-explains
• Michelle Grattan on a-no-vote-in-the-voice-referendum-would-put-a-serious-dent-in-australias-image-abroad
• Ryan Neelan on ending-climate-wars-public-s-mandate
• Marion Terrill and Natasha Bradshaw on we-dont-need-an-array-of-pricey-policies-to-reduce-emissions-from-vehicles-just-one-good-one

Northern America

• Net Interest on contagion Thanks Brad
• Very Serious on is-ron-desantis-savvy-or-not? Thanks Brad
• Dan Davies on regulation-is-the-scientist-supervision Thanks Brad
• Eric Foner on a-regional-reign-of-terror-jim-crow-by-hands-now-known
• rortybomb on a-better-aei-graphic-of-inflation Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on svb-sifis-dodd-frank-egrrcpa-hqla-and-the-lcr, how-unique-was-svb
• Fabiola Cineas on hate-crimes-report-rise-in-hate-crimes
• Roger Farmer on how-to-fix-the-banks
• Uneasy Money on jason-furman-hyperventilates-about-wages-and-inflation
• the soapbox on iraq-new-republic-20-years-later-lessons-not-learned Thanks Brad
• Timothy O'Brien on trump-sweats-an-arrest-we-should-sweat-another-term Thanks Brad
• Nicole Narea et al on fox-news-dominion-lawsuit-smartmatic-defamation
• David Frum on iraq-war-us-invasion-anniversary
• Jeet Heer on connally-reagan-carter-october-surprise
• Liz Zhou on federal-reserve-interest-rates-jerome-powell
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-indictment-arrest-israel-protest-netanyahu-comparison
• Sophie Novack on texas-abortion-law-doctors-nurses-care-supreme-court
• Mathew Desmond on the-high-cost-of-being-poor
• David Rhode on advice-for-alvin-bragg-from-former-trump-prosecutors
• noahopinion on progressives-need-to-embrace-progress
• Tyler Cowen on this-banking-crisis-wont-wreck-the-economy
• newdeal democrat on no-recession-yet-but-no-paucity-of-yellow-flags
• Kevin Munger on the-united-states-should-ban-tiktok

Europe

• Sholomo Ben-Ami on zelensky-putin-must-pursue-imperfect-peace-ukraine thanks Brad
• renew economy on transition-state-of-play-germany-is-emerging-from-the-energy-crisis, netherlands-plans-worlds-largest-offshore-wind-to-hydrogen-project
• Mainly Macro on what-can-be-done-about-chancellor-gaming-the-fiscal-rules
• Jen Kirby on ukraine-war-bakhmut-wagner-group-russia
• Henry Grabar on france-macron-pension-protests
• Amy Knight on putins-folly-invasion-luke-harding
• Anne Applebaum on zelensky-desantis-ukraine
• thinking about on playing-the-victim thanks Nick

Asia

• Mia Hobbs on we-did-it-so-badly-its-now-backfired-women-and-minority-us-forces-reflect-on-the-invasion-of-iraq-now-20-years-ago
• Benjamin Isakhan on iraq-war-20-years-on-how-the-world-failed-iraq-and-created-a-less-peaceful-democratic-and-prosperous-state
• Sam Baron on japan-seeks-improved-climate-relations-asean
• Rebecca Barber on can-asean-forge-political-solution-myanmar
• Jindong Yuang on xis-moscow-trip-shows-peace-in-ukraine-isnt-chinas-main-concern
• Khang Vu on north-korea-state-versus-people

Wonk

• Yvonne Breitweiser-Fasa on are-russian-transfers-of-ukrainian-children-to-re-education-and-adoption-facilities-a-form-of-genocide
• Tim Harford on can-gamers-outplay-rapacious-capitalists
• noahopinion on the-wokeness-series, yes-of-course-we-should-ban-tiktok
• the conversable economist on mervyn-king-our-ambition-at-the-bank-of-england-is-to-be-boring, catastrophes-and-costs-some-trendlines
• Macromania on theres-no-free-lunch
• Menzie Chinn on financial-market-integration-assessed, guest-contribution-fifty-years-of-floating
• Alex Tabbarok on the-new-madness-of-crowds
• John Authors on markets-calm-after-ubs-credit-suisse-a-lehman-pause-or-the-real-thing Thanks Brad
• Dominic Dwyer on chinas-only-now-revealed-crucial-covid-19-origins-data-earlier-disclosure-may-have-saved-us-3-years-of-political-argy-bargy

General

• Trevor Ireland on new-asteroid-sample-study-offers-further-hints-of-space-origin-for-the-building-blocks-of-life-on-earth

Climate

• Nat Bullard on presentations Thanks Brad
• Nerilie Abram on what-can-we-expect-from-the-final-un-climate-report-and-what-is-the-ipcc-anyway
• skeptical science on gas-furnace-health-risks
• Frank Jotzo and Mark Howden on it-can-be-done-it-must-be-done-ipcc-delivers-definitive-report-on-climate-change-and-where-to-now
• Bronwyn Hayward on ipcc-report-the-world-must-cut-emissions-and-urgently-adapt-to-the-new-climate-realities-202129
• Skeptical Science on at-a-glance-hockey-stick, surprising-power-floating-wind-turbines
• Moyhu on cfact-says-net-zero-is-impossible
• Julie Jabowski et al on fishing-for-data-commercial-fishers-help-monitor-rising-temperatures-in-coastal-seas

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• behavioural-science-is-unlikely-to-change-the-world-without-a-heterogeneity-revolution
  
• hierarchical-stacking-in-pyro-and-pymc
  
• thinking-about-statistical-modeling-overfitting-and-generalization-error
  
• on-march-14th-at-7pm-et-thought-leader-and-harvard-professor-steven-pinker-will-release-digital-collectibles-of-his-famous-idea-that-free-speech-is-fundamental
  
• parallelization-for-markov-chain-monte-carlo-with-heterogeneous-runtimes-a-case-study-on-ode-based-models
  
• they-did-a-graphical-permutation-test-to-see-if-students-could-reliably-distinguish-the-observed-data-from-permuted-replications-now-the-question-is-how-do-we-interpret-the-results
  
• what-does-it-take-or-should-it-take-for-an-empirical-social-science-study-to-be-convincing
  
• research-can-be-found-everywhere-even-on-rare-occasions-in-boxes-labeled-research
  
• bad-stuff-going-down-in-biostat-land-declaring-null-effect-just-cos-p-value-is-more-than-0-05-assuming-proportional-hazards-where-it-makes-no-sense
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• european-elegy
  
• Daniel Becker on the-big-myth-by-naomi-oreskes

Vox wonk

• arrests-are-effective-breaking-cycle-domestic-violence
  
• emergence-massive-modularity-new-form-industrial-organisation-and-what-it-means
  
• dealing-debt-latin-america-and-caribbean
  
• covid-19-policies-and-human-factor
  
• how-monetary-policy-affects-bank-lending-and-financial-stability-credit-creation
  
• silicon-valley-bank-collapse-prudential-regulation-lessons-europe-and-world
  
• market-impact-fed-press-conference
  
• demandable-claims-bank-liquidity-complicate-unwinding-central-bank-balance-sheets
  
• impacts-industrial-guidance-funds-performance-chinese-manufacturing-enterprises
  
• ukraines-future-prosperity-what-can-be-learned-poland
  
• swiss-authorities-enforced-legitimate-going-concern-conversion
  
• unlocking-promise-services-led-growth
  
• how-europe-can-jointly-issue-debt-without-direct-transfers
  

NSW State Election

 The NSW state election occurs on saturday.

I have always voted against any government after twp terms and let the other side govern. pollical division or infighting, open pork barrelling etc usually happens into the second term and it has occurred in spades with this government. It does not matter if you think the opposition is hopeless and/oe the Leader is no good I still vote against the government as I did with Tony Abbott leading the LNP federally.

I suspect the ALP are too soft on poker machines but no matter a change of government is needed.

Endeavour

 Endeavour finished on the weekend with its last episode of the last season.  It gets its name from Morse's christian name. It is a series based pn morse's early life as a detective.

It was clearly the best english crime series to date. The acting was superb, the writing quite good , the character changed were understandable etc.

It was sad the series has ended but all good things must come to an end. Last episodes are rarely great and this was was passable.

If you have not watched this series then get onto Iview and watch the lot ( all 9 of them) you wil lnot be disappointed.

Saun Evans who played Morse did it so much better than John Thaw in Inspector Morse. He looked a detective with an intellectual bent and unlucky in love.

It was a bewdy!!

The problems of Gas in Australia

 Courtesy of Around the Traps we have Tim Buckley writing there-is-no-gas-shortage-just-a-lack-of-ethics-and-integrity-from-gas-cartel.

When producers 'hunt' for gas they do so to export it for big bucks not to sell in the domestic market. About 80% of gas is exported.The producers want australian consumers to pay world prices for gas. Australian consumers do not because afterall it is our gas.

The war in Iraq

 It is the anniversary of the illegal  invasion of Iraq.

some articles of interest:

• we-did-it-so-badly-its-now-backfired-women-and-minority-us-forces-reflect-on-the-invasion-of-iraq-now-20-years-ago
  
• iraq-war-20-years-on-how-the-world-failed-iraq-and-created-a-less-peaceful-democratic-and-prosperous-state
  
• what-went-right-iraq
  

The invasion was a farce. It was based on a lie. Hans blix and his team told us Iraq had no developed any WMDS and any old weapons were so degraded to be useless. most of Iraq's airforce was in Iran and They could not even service their tanks. They could not even threaten their neighbours lat alone great and not so great powers. By the way you do not invade a country whom you believe have WMDs unless you have no regard for your soldiers!

The neo-cons simply had no understanding of Iraq, Replacing Hussein would obviously mean sectarian violence and closer ties with Iran. This was completely missed.

As Gareth Evans pointed out at the time the USA had given the next great power carte blanch to invade any country they wanted to. Indeed they could not really criticise Russia with any credibility.

All in all it was a complete disaster which some of us saw at the time.

Around the Traps 18/3/23

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Darren O'Donovan on amateurish-rushed-and-disastrous-royal-commission-exposes-robodebt-as-ethically-indefensible-policy-targeting-vulnerable-people
• Hugh Piper and Sussanah Patton on taking-australian-statecraft-good-great
• Ross Gittins on can-critics-prove-higher-profit-margins-fuel-inflation, why-economists-keep-getting-it-wrong, dont-miss-good-news-among-bad
• the tally room on what voters make up the 2PP
• renew economy on making-dumb-solar-smart-push-to-bring-old-rooftop-pv-into-new-world-of-flexible-exports, electric-vehicles-wont-blow-up-the-grid-says-head-of-australias-biggest-network-company, safeguard-mechanism-the-good-the-bad-and-the-downright-ugly, consumers-pay-the-hefty-price-of-australias-fossil-fuel-addiction, crunch-time-for-south-australias-bold-green-hydrogen-play-as-bids-close, fossil-grid-smashed-by-year-of-weather-extremes-as-renewables-look-smarter-than-ever, aemo-sounds-warning-as-it-manages-tricky-balancing-act-on-gas-generation, australias-biggest-solar-farm-powers-up-to-help-replace-new-south-wales-coal, voltage-control-to-boost-solar-penetration-and-reliability-for-vulnerable-rural-towns, there-is-no-gas-shortage-just-a-lack-of-ethics-and-integrity-from-gas-cartel
• Paul Alexander on post-apocalypse-the-end-of-daily-letter-deliveries-is-in-sight
• Croaking Cassandra on bank-failure, https://croakingcassandra.com/2023/03/14/what-risks-should-the-state-protect-people-from
• Peter Martin on working-australians-pay-tax-in-real-time-now-the-richest-australians-making-capital-gains-should-too
• John Blaxland on aukus-submarine-plan-will-be-the-biggest-defence-scheme-in-australian-history-so-how-will-it-work
• Matt Fitzpatrick on with-aukus-australia-has-wedded-itself-to-a-risky-us-policy-on-china-and-turned-a-deaf-ear-to-the-region
• Roger Bradbury et al on progress-in-detection-tech-could-render-submarines-useless-by-the-2050s-what-does-it-mean-for-the-aukus-pact
• Daniel Flitton on aukus-many-questions-revealing-answers
• Lauren Sanders on if-aukus-is-all-about-nuclear-submarines-how-can-it-comply-with-nuclear-non-proliferation-treaties-a-law-scholar-explains
• Ian Lowe on australia-hasnt-figured-out-low-level-nuclear-waste-storage-yet-let-alone-high-level-waste-from-submarines
• Noel Cressie on robodebt-not-only-broke-the-laws-of-the-land-it-also-broke-laws-of-mathematics
• Jeff Borland on unemployment-rate-back-down-to-3-5-its-anyones-guess-when-things-will-turn

Northern America

• noahopinion on why-was-there-a-run-on-silicon-valley-bank, preventing-panic-in-the-banking-sector, preventing-panic-in-the-banking-sector, svb-and-the-fed, will-government-regulate-vcs-and-startups-a-lot-more-now
• Susan Page on gop-war-woke-most-americans-see-term-positive-ipsos-poll Thanks Brad
• William Chittenden on silicon-valley-bank-biggest-us-lender-to-fail-since-2008-financial-crisis-a-finance-expert-explains-the-impact
• Ellen Ioannes on child-labor-laws-huckabee-sanders-republicans
• Nathaniel Rakich and Tony Chow on polls-arent-dead-here-are-the-pollsters-to-trust
• Brad De Long on p/silicon-valley-bank-monday-morning-quarterbacking
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-abortion-texas-medically-necessary-sepsis-zurawski
• Emily Stewart et al on silicon-valley-bank-collapse-silvergate-first-republic-fdic
• Emily Stewart on silicon-valley-bank-jpmorgan-bank-run-big-banks
• Henry Grabar on rising-crime-broken-windows-policing-revisited
• Tyler Cowen on can-the-svb-crisis-be-solved-in-the-longer-run
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-some-thoughts-on-svb
• Calculated Risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-06
• Li Zhou on ron-desantis-ukraine-republican-split
• Ben Mathis-Lilley on silicon-valley-bank-collapse-wokeness-east-palestine
• the conversable economist on the-failure-of-free-community-college-in-oregon
• the grumpy economist on how-many-banks-are-in-danger, on-marking-to-market-and-risk-management
• Jerry Hendrix on us-navy-oceanic-trade-impact-russia-china
• Clare Malone on the-fallout-of-fox-news-public-shaming
• newdeal democrat on properly-measured-consumer-prices-have-been-in-deflation-since-last-june
• Jamelle Bouie on silicon-valley-bank-republicans-woke Thanks Brad
• bits about money on banking-in-very-uncertain-times Thanks Brad
• the moving train club on the-crooked-timber-of-american-public-opinion Thanks Brad

Europe

• Mainly Macro on how-political-right-has-used-'impartialty'-to-takeover-the-BBC, will-this-weeks-budget-be-pre-election-giveaways
• Phillips Newsletter on why-is-ukraine-being-made-to-try-and-win-the-hard-way Thanks Brad
• renew economy on renewables-help-slash-gas-demand-over-british-winter-avoid-15bn-in-energy-costs, windy-weather-sets-new-renewable-generation-records-across-europe

Asia

• Abhijit Singh on indian-navy-s-aircraft-carrier-dilemma
• Robert E Kelly on japan-south-korea-logical-uneasy-alignment
• Paul Bremer on what-went-right-iraq
• Charles Glass on disenchantment-and-devastation-in-syria-charles-glass
• Nic Bisley on is-china-becoming-a-peacemaker-or-is-it-just-as-aggressive-as-before
• Hilmand Dehsabzhi on stable-afghanistan-where-china-russia-us-cooperate

Wonk

• Michael Hiltzik on contrary-wsj-claim-theres-still-not-a-speck-of-evidence-that-covid-escaped-from-a-chinese-lab Thanks Brad
• Tim Harford on why-chatbots-are-bound-to-spout-bullshit
• the conversable economist on lessons-from-james-tobin-the-virtues-of-strategic-sloppiness, some-economics-of-pandemic-vaccination
• Tyler Cowen on inflation-is-slightly-underrated
• Nikola Mikovic on will-china-really-funnel-weapons-russia-through-belarus
• and Then Theres Physics on the-origins-debate
• stumbling and mumbling on technical-regress
• the conversable economist on from-multilateralism-to-friend-shoring
• Menzie Chinn on the-term-spread-and-recession-across-countries
• Roland Rajah on greening-world-bank
• Peter Dorman on escape-from-muddle-land
• Brad De Long on our-ancestors-thought-wed-build-an-economic-paraddise.instead-we-got-2022
• Nandini Ramesh on the-flap-of-a-butterflys-wings-why-autumn-is-not-a-good-time-to-predict-if-el-nino-is-coming
• coppolla comment on the-peston-effect

General

• Catriona Macloud on can-seaweed-save-the-world-well-it-can-certainly-help-in-many-ways
• Nic Fuller on is-menopause-making-me-put-on-weight-no-but-its-complicated
• Jonti Horner on astronomers-just-discovered-a-comet-that-could-be-brighter-than-most-stars-when-we-see-it-next-year-or-will-it
• Melissa Kennedy and Hugh Thomas on enigmatic-ruins-across-arabia-hosted-ancient-ritual-sacrifices

Climate

• skeptical science on heat-pumps-1800s-tech-future
• Moyhu on giss-february-global-temperature-up-by-0.11-from-january
• real climate on some-new-cmip6-msu-comparisons

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• tidyverse-examples-for-regression-and-other-stories
  
• should-drug-companies-have-to-release-data-right-away-not-holding-data-secret-until-after-regulatory-approval
  
• our-bayesian-predictions-for-the-oscars-using-stan
  
• is-there-a-bayesian-justification-for-the-murdaugh-verdict
  
• blogs-twitter-part-the-umpteenth
  
• how-to-add-scaffolding-when-making-a-graph-thats-hard-to-follow
  
• dont-trust-people-selling-their-methods-the-importance-of-external-validation-sepsis-edition
  
• predicting-llm-havoc
  
• problems-with-a-cdc-report-challenges-of-comparing-estimates-from-two-different-surveys-also-a-problem-with-rounding-error
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• prospects-euro-area-inflation-2023
  
• economic-backwardness-russia
  
• investing-in-influence
  
• housing-wealth-and-consumption-role-heterogeneous-credit-constraints
  
• aggregate-effects-local-and-global-supply-chain-disruptions-2020-2022
  
• monetary-policies-fewer-subsidies-banks-two-tier-system-minimum-reserve-requirements
  
• role-default-settings-online-searches
  
• russias-imperial-war-and-need-assistance-ukraine-during-and-after-war
  
• tangible-or-intangible-investment-question-owner-type-and-investment-private-firms
  
• connected-lending-last-resort
  
• equity-mutual-funds-use-derivatives-mostly-amplify-exposure-not-hedge-returns
  
• food-security-2023-black-sea-deal-isnt-only-game-town
  
• central-bank-crystal-ball-temporal-information-monetary-policy-communication
  
• local-regions-eu-those-ukraine-and-back-again-how-fdi-and-global-value-chains-tie-our
  
• european-integration-and-extensive-margins-trade
  

AUKUS

Well we now have some articles about the AUKUS deal.

• aukus-submarine-plan-will-be-the-biggest-defence-scheme-in-australian-history-so-how-will-it-work
  
• progress-in-detection-tech-could-render-submarines-useless-by-the-2050s-what-does-it-mean-for-the-aukus-pact
  
• with-aukus-australia-has-wedded-itself-to-a-risky-us-policy-on-china-and-turned-a-deaf-ear-to-the-region
  
• if-aukus-is-all-about-nuclear-submarines-how-can-it-comply-with-nuclear-non-proliferation-treaties-a-law-scholar-explains
  
• australia-hasnt-figured-out-low-level-nuclear-waste-storage-yet-let-alone-high-level-waste-from-submarines
  
• paul-keating-lashes-albanese-government-over-aukus-calling-it-labors-biggest-failure-since-ww1
  
• aukus-many-questions-revealing-answers
  

A few thoughts

The subs will be the first of their kind thus there are bound to be problems. It will carry very dangerous radioactive material. We have no nuclear industry so nowhere for those who stop subbing to go when they want to leave. Lastly we have has very little debate on this deal and it is a very costly deal. I am not on the Keating side on this but that does not mean we should not have a considered debate and the opportunity cost about this deal.

Silicon Valley bank problems

 What is going on here?

Noah Smith

HERE and HERE ( related) and HERE (late)

Menzie Chinn

HERE and ( guest contribution) HERE

Emily Stewart et al 

Nicole Narea

William Chittenden

Brad De Long

We should always remember Banks borrow short and lend long so if they do not hedge properly they will always be in trouble!!

A review of the India test Series

 The test series is over so let us review it.

Pitches

I thought the first two pitches were fine, favouring spin but there is nothing wrong with that. The third pitch was too much in favour of spin and you need luck to stay in. the last pitch was a road and a borathon. If the last tiw pitches were similar to the first two and we would have had 4 results with the ball dominating the bat.

Captains

Cummins had a series he would want to forget. He was overwhelmed and perhaps let emotion get the better of him. Smith And Sharma were similar. Both good captains when on top ( who isn't?) but both lacked imagination when when not.

Bowling

Quite obviously the fast bowlers were lacking bowling on spinning pitches. given Siraj got Kawaja LBW to a late inswinger in the first test it was strange to see most fast bowlers deny any swing by bowling around the wicket to a lefthander/righthander. 

to state the obvious the Indian spin twins were superb as usual in India. Axa surprisingly was  ineffective. how much longer they continue to play is problematic. They are spinners so they could play until their forties.

Lyons was certainly up to the task in India. what was surprising was Murphy and Kuhnemann in their first tests were superg in backing him up. I am sceptical of whether they can be successful outside of India as neither are big spinners.

Batting

Once again the much vaunted Indian batting lineup failed to deliver. Yes Sharma hit a superb century but overall the Indian batting lineup was not much better than Australia's except in one regard. The three spinners  are almost allrounders indeed Axa could almost be regarded  as India's best batsman. 

Australia's batting was certainly susceptible to good spin on a spinning track. Both Kawaja and Head showed they could play spin as well as any other batsmen in the team however we had too many batting collapses too often.

Wicket keepers

Carey had a great first tour of India. his techniques was very good. Bharat di not have a good technique. too often he took balls near his feet for fast bowlers.He took some great catches off the spinners but dropped some as well.

I think the series was far closer than it should have been, India clearly did not turn up for the third test when they could not lose the series. We should acknowledge however India had neither Bumrah nor Pant. Both were sorely missed.

Both teams are aging and over time will need to bring in younger players. By the time of the nest series in Australia fast bowlers on both sides will be different as will be the batsmen.

Onto the Ashes

Whoopsy

I really should examine the test championship game to be played between these two sides at the oval in June.

Australia will go back to three quicks and Lyons whereas what will India do? Replace Axa with say Pandya if fit and replace Siraj with a fit Bumrah. Iyer loks  injury prone as well.

The conditions should favour Australia and thus we should be favourites

Abortion in the USA

 I am against abortion however I am not a fanatic that says it cannot occur at all.

THERE is a lawsuit in Texas where five women are taking the Texas state Government to court. In this suit we find out at least one woman could have died because of the present law. Another woman found it very hard to abort one twin so the other could survive. Fanatics  usually say no abortion if a woman id raped or if incest in involved. We have seen one state government try to take legal action when a young girl in single digits had an abortion. THIS goes into the legal detail of the case

Herein lies the irony. all these problems rarely happen. most abortions in australia happen because of 'lifestyle reasons'. Problems of work, expense of children etc.

When fanatics say there is no reason for an abortion then this leaves the punters dumbfounded. No wonder more than 2/3 of US voters favour abortion.

The abortion fanatics are abortion rights people 's best friends. It help s them win elections as we saw last year. It is also a tragedy.

Around the Traps 10/3/23

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Institutional Economics on australian-stocks-for-the-long-run
• Ross Gittins on rba-inquiry-should-propose-something-much-better , relax-student-loans-show-theres-fate-worse-than-debt
• renew economy on wind-solar-and-storage-costs-jump-up-to-60-pct-says-biggest-project-developer, safeguard-reforms-could-slash-australias-coal-mine-methane-bombs-at-little-cost, greenwashing-is-under-fire-can-the-energy-sector-stay-out-of-its-crosshairs, gas-lobby-called-out-for-overcooking-electrification-costs, how-a-wind-farm-and-a-big-battery-will-deliver-24-7-power-to-one-of-worlds-biggest-mines, coal-plant-reliability-hits-a-new-low-as-unplanned-unit-outages-hit-a-new-high, queensland-buys-5bn-copperstring-project-to-unlock-6gw-of-bulk-renewables, wind-and-solar-output-hits-new-records-as-heat-waves-sweep-across-country, fiscal-lunacy-australia-urged-to-clean-up-solar-supply-chain-rather-than-chase-hydrogen-hopium, western-australia-or-windy-australia-february-data-cements-the-west-as-best, australia-can-be-world-leader-in-green-metals-or-be-left-behind
• John Blaxland on the-long-awaited-aukus-submarine-announcement-is-imminent-what-should-we-expect
• Jim Stanford on underlying-australias-inflation-problem-is-a-historic-shift-of-income-from-workers-to-corporate-profits
• Antony Green on preference-flows-by-party-2019-nsw-election
• Flavio Macan on cool-it-australias-biggest-cold-trucking-firm-has-collapsed-but-reports-of-a-supermarket-supply-disaster-are-overheated
• Christina Nikitopoulos and Muthe Mwampashi on first-look-at-the-new-settlement-rule-of-australias-electricity-market-has-it-worked
• Martina Linnenlueke  et al on solar-power-can-cut-living-costs-but-its-not-an-option-for-many-people-they-need-better-support
• Peter Martin on why-rba-interest-rate-hikes-could-end-by-september-but-brace-for-at-least-one-more
• Ian Hall on getting-india-right
• Croaking Cassandra on central-bank-inadequacy-and-spin, central-bank-losses-and-the-bis
• Giuseppe Carabetta on what-are-reasonable-hours-the-ryan-rugg-legal-stoush-may-help-the-rest-of-us-know
• Levvi West on strategy-securing-australian-democracy
• Geoff Miller on war-over-taiwan-is-not-inevitable-for-australia Thanks Nick Gruen

Northern America

• Josh Marshall on let us look at fox news Thanks Brad
• Francis Wilkinson on fox-news-is-trapped-by-its-own-zealotry Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on output-where-weve-been-and-where-we-are-relative-to-potential
• noahopinion on everything-you-think-you-know-about, why-do-education-health-care-and-child-care-costs-so-much-in-america
• Brad De Long on algorithm-society-new-mode-of-social-organization
• Ben Jacobs on donald-trump-cpac-republican-party
• Geoffrey Skelley on trump-desantis-pence-election-polls
• the conversable economist on telemedicine-lessons-from-ukraine-for-the-united-states, americas-problems-with-building-transit-infrastructure
• newdeal democrat on the-fed-still-seems-determined-to-bring-about-a-recession
• Tim Duy on Powell drops the hammer Thanks Brad
• Daring Fireball on marshall-fox-new-archeology Thanks Brad
• Drezners world on how-is-fox-news-different-from-all-other-media Thanks Brad
• Jeet Heer on tom-lehmann-foxnews, federalist-society-corruption-investigation, trump-cpac-maga-speech
• Andrew Prokop on fox-news-tucker-carlson-dominion-texts-january-6
• Adrienne LaFrance on us-extremism-portland-george-floyd-protests-january-6
• George Packer on historical-fatalism-us-politics-history-schools
• Aaron Bycoffe et al on abortion-driving-distance
• Rachel Cohen on biden-budget-white-house-administration-medicare
• Dennis Wamsted on december-freeze-further-highlights-myth-fossil-fuel-reliability

Europe

• Menzie Chinn on january-2023-russia-gdp-growth-is-3-2-y-y
• Tim Harford on how-to-fix-the-british-economy
• Joel Eisenberg on the-making-of-modern-ukraine
• Fred Kaplan on ukraine-war-why-russia-army-isnt-learning-from-its-mistakes
• Chris Bertram on the-uk-abandons-refugees
• stumbling and mumbling on economic-growth-who-loses
• Simon Evans on uk-emissions-fall-as-coal-use-drops-to-lowest-level-since-1757
• Christopher Morris on ukraine-war-a-fight-to-the-death-in-bakhmut-with-both-sides-bogged-in-the-spring-thaw
• Kenneth Rogoff on why-western-sanctions-failed-to-devastate-the-russian-economy Thanks Nick Gruen

Asia

• Davis Ravella on china-leans-into-the-battle-for-tech-supremacy Thanks Brad
• Kaushik Basu on singapore-success-result-of-multiculturalism-not-authoritarianism Thanks Brad
• Milton Osborne on mekong-river-work-has-begun-luang-prabang-dam-site
• Shireen Daft on is-the-poisoning-of-schoolgirls-in-iran-a-new-front-in-the-war-against-girls-education
• Yun Jiang on beijing-birth-rate-question-human-rights-women
• Barak Ravid on israel-fighter-pilots-judicial-overhaul-protests
• Ali Vaz and Naysan Rafati on tenuous-tourniquet-iran-s-nuclear-program
• Jonathan Guyer on why-israelis-protesting-netanyahu-far-right-government-judiciary-overhaul
• noahopinion on which-industries-will-china-dominate
• Charles Worringham on how-big-indias-solar-waste-challenge-compared-coal-fired-power

Wonk

• Nigel Marks et al on no-the-fukushima-water-release-is-not-going-to-kill-the-pacific-ocean
• the conversable economist on how-will-remote-work-affect-cities, whither-quantitative-tightening
• Enriko Berkes et al on dealing with Adversity. Religiousity or Science Thanks Brad
• Mainly Macro on why-quantitative-easing-should-always-be-with-us
• coppolla comment on lessons-from-disaster-engulfing-silvergate-capital
• Haydn Belfield on peter-thiel-existential-risk-oxford-union-silicon-valley-technology-artficial-intelligence
• Menzie Chinn on r-vs-g
• Chris Greeing et al on electricity-from-thin-air-an-enzyme-from-bacteria-can-extract-energy-from-hydrogen-in-the-atmosphere
• Patrick Walsh and Ausma Bernot on disputes-over-covids-origins-reveal-an-intelligence-community-in-disarray-here-are-4-fixes-we-need-before-the-next-pandemic
• Nick Gruen on ai-is-it-coming-for-us-no-is-it-a-big-deal-yes
• Wesley Morgan on a-tonne-of-fossil-carbon-isnt-the-same-as-a-tonne-of-new-trees-why-offsets-cant-save-us
• Michael Toole and Brendan Crabb on three-years-into-the-pandemic-its-clear-covid-wont-fix-itself-heres-what-we-need-to-focus-on-next

General

• Rebecca Wilcoxxon and Emma Turley on lie-detection-tests-have-worked-the-same-way-for-3-000-years-and-theyre-still-hopelessly-inaccurate
• Scott Williams and Mark Hulett on crocodiles-are-uniquely-protected-against-fungal-infections-this-might-one-day-help-human-medicine-too
• Scarlett Howard on is-the-honeybees-iconic-waggle-dance-learned-or-innate-new-research-provides-the-answer

Climate

• Lesley Alton and Vanessa Kellerman on lets-get-real-scientists-discover-a-new-way-climate-change-threatens-cold-blooded-animals
• Martha Ibanez on the-antarctic-ice-sheet-is-melting-and-this-is-bad-news-for-humanity
• Met Office on glacial-archaeology-unlocking-the-climate-time-machine
• Real Climate on how-not-to-science
• Peter Sinclair on industry-wants-small-reactors-but-there-are-hangups
• and Then Theres Physics on conflicts-of-interest, methane-again
• Sceptical Science on at-a-glance-antarctica
• Ian Rae on bushfire-smoke-eats-up-the-ozone-protecting-us-from-dangerous-radiation-the-damage-will-increase-as-the-world-heats-up
• Moyhu on feruary-global-surface-templs-up-0107
• Eric Lonergan on reframing-climate-policy-a-reply-to-simon-wren-lewis
• Ian Cresswell et al on penguin-paradise-and-geological-freak-why-macquarie-island-deserves-a-bigger-marine-park

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• stochastic-terrorism
  
• poetry-is-everywhere-even-in-boxes-labeled-poetry
  
• reconciling-evaluations-of-the-millennium-villages-project
  
• a-complete-current-and-granular-picture-of-covid-19-epidemic-in-the-united-states
  
• significance-testing-the-replication-crisis-and-the-market-for-lemons
  
• haemoglobin-blogging
  
• statschat on counting-is-hard
• econometric sense on are-matching-estimators-and-conditional
• Kaiser Fung on when-you-dont-need-data, practical-issues-in-observational-studies, whos-the-richest-person-in-the-world-right-now

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-treasury-view
  
• saving-liberalism
  

Vox Wonk

• enablers-firms-use-digital-technologies-technological-innovation-and-digital
  
• conscriptions-comeback-everlasting-appeal-age-old-policy
  
• nation-building-new-ebook
  
• regional-universities-raise-social-mobility-their-local-communities
  
• welfare-gains-increased-product-variety-large-digital-platform
  
• work-martin-ravallion-poverty-and-inequality
  
• leaning-against-global-financial-cycle
  
• skilled-immigration-task-allocation-and-innovation-firms
  
• how-tackle-uks-regional-economic-inequality-focus-stem-transport-and-innovation
  
• aggregate-labour-productivity-growth-during-pandemic-role-industry-reallocations
  
• regional-universities-raise-social-mobility-their-local-communities
  
• how-ukrainian-migrants-affect-economies-european-countries
  
• sources-wage-growth
  
• workers-responses-threat-automation
  
• table-puts-our-kids-hook
  
• european-commissions-proposal-reform-electricity-markets
  
• postwar-reconstruction-assistance-and-local-governments-ukraine
  
• china-does-not-pick-or-create-winners-when-giving-subsidies-firms