some TV Shows

 It is Monday and I am sick of serious topics so what TV shows are worth watching or not!

Shetland

I am watching the latest season on ABC TV and it is still a quality series. do not let the lack of rain or snow put you off!! highly recommended.

Annika

This simply does not work. It is a crime series based in Scotland but you get confused with the main character talking to the camera and then going normal. It works for The Office. not here. NOT Recommended. Sorry but it is dreadful. The poms do it sometimes.

Star Trek Discovery

I am a Trekkie but this is another good addition to the star trek library. It is too hard to describe. If you like the concept of Star trek then you wil enjoy this. If not give it a miss. I like most of the characters.

CSI Vegas

This is a follow on from the original CSI. Only two characters from that series however the new characters are mostly good. Paula Newsome is the lead and I liked her from NCIS where she was Leon's wife until killed. It is okay without taking your breath away

FBI

This is still going well. Perhaps because the two new co-lead characters work. The loud music is off-putting and the 'aging' of Alana del la Garza does not work. She is the boss but had to look older as the previous female boss was in her 60s. One thing I do like is the characters make mistakes. Recommended

Blue Bloods

I have written about this previously and it is a very good no great series. There are only two problems. The PC's two oldest children are in their 50s which would mean he is in his 70s.  The other is the whole family are fiercely catholic. no problems with that but if they are they would not be into sex with anyone they want.

Carol King

 Carol King deserves to be rated right up there with the best of the singer/song writers.

In will you love me tomorrow she writes about that secular feeling of having sex with anyone you want but hoping it results in a long term relationship.

An incredibly sad song done brilliantly. Listen to the back up singers. Joni Mitchell and James Taylor ( who also plays steel guitar on the song.)

I think it is her best song.

 

Around the Traps 29/10/21

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Marion Terrill on tough-carbon-dioxide-car-emissions-ceilings-could-get-us-well-on-the-road-to-net-zero
• Siobhan O'Sullivan et al on australias-underclass-dont-like-work-our-research-shows-vulnerable-job-seekers-dont-get-the-help-they-need
• John Quiggin on the-nationals-finally-agree-to-a-2050-net-zero-target-but-the-real-decisions-on-australias-emissions-are-happening-elsewhere, between-the-lines-morrisons-plan-has-coal-on-the-way-out-with-the-future-bright
• Ross Gittins on morrisons-deal-nationals-rewarded-for-agreeingg-to-harm-the-regions, dearer-houses-another-problem-were-learning-to-live-with
• renew economy on whole-towns-to-be-taken-off-the-grid-and-powered-by-stand-alone-renewables, australia-aims-for-ultra-low-cost-solar-to-drive-green-transition, the-lies-and-manipulations-used-for-australias-new-2030-emissions-projection
• Greg Jericho on high-under-employment-and-long-term-unemployment-are-keeping-an-overheating-economy-on-ice, inflation-in-australia-might-be-on-the-rise-but-its-hardly-running-wild
• Peter Hurley on why-the-international-education-crisis-will-linger-long-after-students-return-to-australia
• Anna Skarbek and Anna Maios on the-morrison-government-is-set-to-finally-announce-a-2050-net-zero-commitment-heres-a-to-do-list-for-each-sector
• Lesley Hughes on australias-stumbling-last-minute-dash-for-climate-respectability-doesnt-negate-a-decade-of-abject-failure
• Croaking Cassandra on massive-losses-for-nothing
• Peter Martin on now-its-liberals-telling-us-we-are-going-to-have-to-cut-the-capital-gains-tax-concession-if-we-want-to-get-australians-into-homes
• Eliana Close et al on if-covid-hospitalisations-increase-its-still-not-clear-how-patients-will-be-prioritised-for-icu-beds
• John Mathews on australias-clean-hydrogen-revolution-is-a-path-to-prosperity-but-it-must-be-powered-by-renewable-energy
• Andrew King on if-all-2030-climate-targets-are-met-the-planet-will-heat-by-2-7-this-century-thats-not-ok
• Anne Tierman on accountability-is-under-threat-parliament-must-urgently-reset-the-balance
• Christopher Baker and Andrew Robinson on your-unvaccinated-friend-is-roughly-20-times-more-likely-to-give-you-covid
• Institutional economics on easing-on-the-cheap-just-got-a-lot-more-expensive
• Rebecca Pearse on labor-doesnt-have-a-2030-target-yet-either-what-do-we-know-of-the-alps-climate-policy-so-far
• Mark Kenny on want-to-understand-how-the-coalition-works-take-a-look-at-climate-policy
• Michelle Grattan on the-weather-gets-choppy-with-joyce-and-morrisons-climate-contradictions
• Ethan Paul on what-australia-needs-ask-itself-about-united-states
• Ben Judah on britain-and-australia-aren-t-actually-treaty-allies-they-should-be
• Milad Mousavian on ceasing-offshore-gas-exploration-permits-critical-to-cut-australias-emissions
• John Robert on ccs-no-answer-for-santos-barossa-gas-project

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on different-cpis
• Calculated Risk on the-coming-deceleration-in-house-price-growth
• noahopinion on natsec-is-how-america-gets-things-done , people-arent-lazy-including-you, this-years-econ-critics-make-a-few-good-points, some-problems-with-unrealized-capital-gains
• the grumpy economist on supply, transitory-inflation-fisherian-fed
• David Rhode on garland-vs-bannon-is-bidenism-vs-trumpism
• Lee Drutman and Meredith Conroy on democrats-worry-a-lot-about-policies-that-win-elections-thats-short-sighted
• Amanda Marcotte on colin-powells-legacy-how-his-wmds-lie-led-to-donald-big-lie
• Brad De Long on i-see-no-stagflation-here
• Tyler Cowen on why-i-remain-on-team-transitory

Europe

• Benjamin Tallis on strategic-autonomy-more-dangerous-europe-aukus
• Mainly Macro on will-sunak-bring-about-end-to-recovery
• stumbling and mumbling on government-spending-profits-capitalism

Asia

• Menzie Chinn on the-extent-and-implications-of-the-china-slowdown
• Raja Shehadeh on why-would-israel-call-human-rights-terrorism
• Ruth Marglit on the-arab-israeli-power-broker-in-the-knesset
• Jon Jiang on china-s-education-diplomacy-central-asia
• noahopinion on what-makes-a-cultural-superpower

Wonk

• Menzie Chinn on the-price-of-bitcoin
• Tim Harford on a-nobel-memorial-prize-for-turning-statistics-into-insight
• sandwichman on does-economic-growth-cause-unemployment
• stumbling and mumbling on markets-and-freedom
• the conversable economist on was-vaccine-development-an-example-of-successful-industrial-policy, the-prospects-for-services-led-development
• Anthony Burke on glasgow-tipping-point-serious-action
• Sam Geall on china-climate-politics-and-cop26
• Jane McAdam on protecting-people-who-lose-their-homes-climate-change
• Ben Scott on how-save-summit-democracy
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-high-oil-prices-can-help-the-environment

General

• The time of monsters on artist-of-dune

Climate

• Hao Tan on the-us-and-china-must-find-a-way-to-cooperate-at-cop26-and-beyond-otherwise-global-climate-action-is-impossible
• Christian Downie on a-successful-cop26-is-essential-for-earths-future-heres-what-needs-to-go-right
• David Appell on 1.55c-limit-requires-unprecedented-fossil-fuel-declines
• and Then Theres Physics on systemic-misuse-of-criticism-of-climate-science
• Skeptical Science on -s-cost-benefit-analysis-the-right-policy
• Real Climate on a-science-based-move-to-climate-change-adaptation
• Rafael Calel et al on do carbon offsetts offset carbon Thanks Tyler Cowen
• Jalin Kala et al on drying-land-and-heating-seas-why-nature-in-australias-southwest-is-on-the-climate-frontline
• Steve Turton on the-97-climate-consensus-is-over-now-its-well-above-99-and-the-evidence-is-even-stronger-than-that
• Tim Buckley on cop26-is-different-to-prior-cops

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• 0-0-0-thats-australian-math-mate
  
• rainy-day-women-13-36
  
• the-current-state-of-undergraduate-bayesian-education-and-recommendations-for-the-future
  
• writing-negative-blog-posts
  
• estimating-basketball-shooting-ability-while-it-varies-over-time
  
• an-urgent-puzzle
  
• is-the-accuracy-of-bayesian-improved-surname-geocoding-bad-news-for-privacy-protection-at-the-census-technically-no-pr-wise-probably
  
• no-its-not-a-witch-hunt
  
• replicating-the-literature-on-meritocratic-promotion-in-china-or-its-all-about-ethics-in-social-science-workflow
  
• bayesian-approaches-to-differential-gene-expression
  
• a-survey-of-oldsters-can-someone-explain-why-they-do-it-this-way
  
• while-critique-is-certainly-an-important-part-of-improving-scientific-fields-we-do-not-want-to-set-a-precedent-or-encourage-submission-of-articles-that-only-critique-the-methods-used-by-others
  
• Eran Raviv on new-parameterization-correlation-matrices
• statschat on vaccine-data-in-kids

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• taking-ideas-seriously
  
• war-of-the-words
  
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

vox wonk

• womens-wellbeing-during-pandemic-and-its-containment
  
• j-nos-kornai-1928-2021
  
• policy-triangle-big-techs-finance
  
• effectiveness-subsidy-applications-small-businesses
  
• korean-heavy-industry-drive-1973
  
• subsidies-and-market-access-new-data-and-findings-global-trade-alert
  
• what-may-happen-when-central-banks-wake-more-persistent-inflation
  
• state-and-local-government-finances-time-covid-19
  
• oil-price-shocks-and-conflict-escalation-location-matters
  
• short-lived-high-pressure-economy
  
• economists-have-needlessly-produced-climate-war
  
• covid-19-and-structural-change
  
• central-bank-digital-currencies-cryptocurrencies-and-privacy
  

Do Carbon Offsets work?

 Many thanks to TYLER COWEN for this very interesting paper on the above topic. The short answer is no!

This is a must read.

The net Zero plan

 I'm a bit late but here are some opinions:

• Michael Marzengarb
• AGAIN
• Andrew King
• John Quiggin
• John Mathews
• Michelle Grattan

My own thoughts. first do not mix up coal mining with net zero. Exports do not count. There is a lot of faith put in technology not even thought of yet. The reduction in emissions has occurred despite the Federal government not because of it.

what were some of the Nationals whinging about?  There are NO new policies at all.

The korean heavy industry drive

 Way back in the 1970s it was north korea that was seen as the more developed economy not south korea.

This all changed after a concerted drive to boost industry in south korea.

It is all HERE. There were both good and bad points to the plan.

The article is well worth reading. It is instructive, not long and highly educative.

Achieving Net Zero emissions.

 the Nationals have finally agreed to net zero emissions by 2050.

Three views all of which i have said previously.

ROSS GITTINS who is scathing on the Nationals 

MARTON TERRILL and LACHLAN FOX on how a better car emissions policy could lower emissions quickly

and JOHN QUIGGIN on how the decisions are being made elsewhere. A good question to ask is why are the Nationals so agreeable in NSW but not nationally.

We even heard some wanted nuclear power. That is estimated to cost $120/Mhw. compare that to solar which has smashed through the $40 limit and appears heading to $30 by 2030 as Ross Garnaut said it might. Prices we have not seen since the 1960s.

We might ask what weed are some Nationals eating?

The ALP must be laughing. The government is now copying their policy, the Government's previous arguments against climate change can be played back continuously  And the government is hopelessly divided.

Around the Traps 22/10/21

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy,

• Bill Hare on yes-australia-can-beat-its-2030-emissions-target-but-the-morrison-government-barely-lifted-a-finger
• Kate Crowley on climate-wars-carbon-taxes-and-toppled-leaders-the-30-year-history-of-australias-climate-response-in-brief
• Andrew Blakers on barnaby-joyce-has-refused-to-support-doubling-australias-2030-emissions-reduction-targets-but-we-could-get-there-so-cheaply-and-easily
• Peter Martin on australias-top-economists-back-carbon-price-say-benefits-of-net-zero-outweigh-cost
• Ross Gittins on 10/nobel-winners-make-economics-more-useful-not-a-parlour-game, problems-abound-but-we-could-yet-emerge-as-winners
• renew economy on forrest-signs-up-plug-power-for-worlds-biggest-hydrogen-electrolyser-gigafactory, easiest-first-step-to-net-zero-is-to-build-massive-amounts-of-solar , graph-of-the-day-rooftop-solar-is-eating-big-solars-lunch, rio-tinto-plans-massive-7gw-wind-and-solar-for-smelters-and-iron-ore-mines, australia-ranked-worst-amongst-international-peers-for-climate-action-fossil-fuel-use, 5b-unveils-more-powerful-quicker-to-install-maverick-solar-solution, rooftop-solar-sends-victorian-power-prices-to-zero-every-day-for-two-months, dead-ducks-in-the-middle-of-the-grid-coal-output-pushed-to-record-lows-by-solar
• Greg Jericho on nuclear-power-too-costly-too-slow-so-its-zero-use-to-australias-emissions-plan
• Gabi Mocatti on whats-behind-news-corps-new-spin-on-climate-change
• Amalie Dyda on nsw-scraps-home-quarantine-for-returnees-what-are-the-risks-and-what-does-this-mean-for-the-rest-of-australia
• Croaking Cassandra on inflation-and-monetary-policy
• Michelle Grattan on government-shuts-down-move-to-refer-christian-porters-secret-funds-to-privileges-inquiry
• Peter Christoff on australia-is-undermining-the-paris-agreement-no-matter-what-morrison-says-we-need-new-laws-to-stop-this
• Andy Marks and Rae Duffy-Jones on after-a-bombshell-day-at-icac-questions-must-be-asked-about-integrity-in-australian-politics
• Graeme Readfearn on climate-contrary-nationals-strawman-arguments-and-rewriting-australias-kyoto-history
• Institutional economics on the-yield-curve-control-trap-is-sprung
• Ye Xue on china-s-economic-sanctions-made-australia-more-confident

Northern America

• Henry Storey on americas-doughnut-shaped-indo-pacific-strategy
• Rebecca Leber on moderate-versus-progressive-democrats-climate
• Umair Irfan on climate-change-insurance-flood-wildfire-hurricane-risk
• noahopinion on who-is-the-real-problem-when-it-comes-to-climate-change, beware-shoveling-money-at-overpriced-service-industries
• Ellen Ioannes on manchin-climate-change-reconciliation-clean-electricity-program, january-6-committee-bannon-trump-contempt-executive-privilege
• Menzie Chinn on recession-before-the-leaves-fall, guest-contribution-how-far-to-full-employment-an-update
• Fred Kaplan on colin-powell-dies-iraq-war-bush-outmaneuvered
• Barkley Rosser on bad-biden-foreign-policy
• Alex Samuels and Geoffrey Skelley on why-democratic-gains-in-texass-big-metro-areas-could-outweigh-republican-success-in-south-texas
• Fabiola Sineas on freedom-to-vote-act
• Robin Wright on colin-powell-the-humble-american
• the time of monsters on maga-meets-magyar
• Geoffrey Skelley on biden-has-lost-support-across-all-groups-of-americans-but-especially-independents-and-hispanics

Europe

• James empty blog on more-covid
• stumbling and mumbling on the-house-price-puzzle
• Emilain Kavalski and Nicholas Ross Smith on europe-s-time-find-its-superpower

Asia

• Ye Xue on will-the-evergrande-crisis-doom-chinas-grandiose-big-spending-football-dreams
• Tony Walker on chinas-global-diplomatic-approach-is-shifting-and-australia-would-do-well-to-pay-attention-to-it
• renew economy on stunningly-cheap-solar-to-power-chinas-pivot-away-from-coal
• Aarti Beteigeri on india-s-ai-conundrum
• Andrew Selth on if-pushed-far-enough-would-myanmar-leave-asean
• Michael Massing on the-story-the-media-missed-in-afghanistan
• Timothy McLaughlin on hong-kong-democracy
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-slower-chinese-economic-growth-inevitable-without-internal-reform

Wonk

• Rodger Shanahan on foreign-fighters-question-justice
• Tim Harford on how-to-tackle-vaccine-hesitancy
• the conversable economist on powers-of-ten-day-understanding-exponents, some-economics-of-sawdust
• Phillipa Barr on coming-air-global-action-stop-pollution
• stumbling and mumbling on productivity-in-late-capitalism
• Mark Beeson on right-climate-central-planning
• Ali Wyne on us-china-tiers-cohabitation
• Sandwichman on wealth-is-leisure-leisure-wealth
• Stochastic Trend on the-environmental-kuznets-curve-2021-edition
• Bruce Robertson on there-is-plenty-of-coal-and-gas-in-the-world-but-a-volatile-market-is-nobodys-friend

General

• Chris Mackie on guide-to-the-classics-euripides-the-trojan-women-an-unflinching-look-at-the-brutality-of-war
• Stephen Salisbury and Anthony Romilio on australias-oldest-dinosaur-was-a-peaceful-vegetarian-not-a-fierce-predator

Climate

• Dan Lowry et al on widespread-collapse-of-west-antarcticas-ice-sheet-is-avoidable-if-we-keep-global-warming-below-2
• Open Mind on an-honest-appraisal-of-the-global-temperature-trend, an-honest-appraisal-of-the-global-temperature-trend-part-2
• Met Office on the-solar-cycle-and-space-weather

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• causal-impact-of-masks-policies-behavior-on-early-covid-19-pandemic-in-the-u-s-chernozhukov-et-al-respond-to-lemoines-critique
  
• cross-validation-and-model-assessment-comparing-models-with-different-likelihoods-the-answers-in-akis-cross-validation-faq
  
• how-does-post-processed-differentially-private-census-data-affect-redistricting-how-concerned-should-we-be-about-gerrymandering-with-the-new-das
  
• how-did-the-international-public-health-establishment-fail-us-on-covid-by-explicitly-privileging-the-bricks-of-rct-evidence-over-the-odd-shaped-dry-stones-of-mechanistic-evidence
  
• carpenter-slides-papers-prob-prog-2021
  
• Kaiser Fung on swear-and-gossip-a-test-of-your-statistical-acumen

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• do-cities-have-a-future
  
• Andrew Gelman on suburban-dicks, i-like-steven-pinkers-new-book-heres-why
• croaking cassandra on the-money-illusion

Vox Wonk

• strengthening-semiconductor-manufacturing
  
• how-highways-shape-regional-disparities
  
• inequality-urban-affair-and-it-s-due-to-new-tech
  
• natural-experimenters-nobel-laureates-david-card-joshua-angrist-and-guido-imbens
  
• judging-under-public-pressure
  
• low-rates-and-bank-stability-risk-tipping-point
  
• central-bank-digital-currency-historical-perspective
  
• open-questions-international-dimension-central-bank-digital-currencies
  
• contract-labour-and-firm-growth-india
  
• expectations-data-indicate-us-entering-recession-about-now
  
• eu-economy-after-covid-19-implications-economic-governance
  

the current government stinks to high heaven

 The speaker of Parliament yesterday found a prima facie case against Chritian Porter and his trust of money against the ABC. He wanted the privileges committee to investigate the issue to find out whether or not there was an actual case.

The government voted against this. They voted against their own speaker and over a 100 years of precedent. See HERE and HERE.

The question we must ask is why and there appears only one answer. If Porter is threatened with such an inquiry he will resign which would mean a by-election.

The stink which was enveloping the government just got a lot worse.

It isn't a vote changer by itself however it could be when added to many other actions.

It is the action of a party in power for far too long

Low rates and Bank Stability

 A fascinating article in what I call vox wonk on low-rates-and-bank-stability-risk-tipping-point

Low rates have competing effects on banks. The article examines whether there is a tipping point where the competing effects cancel each other out and low rates become negative.

Very interesting

The global temperature trend

 We are lucky that tamino has blessed with not one but two articles on the trend in global temperatures.

Here they are:

• an-honest-appraisal-of-the-global-temperature-trend
  
• an-honest-appraisal-of-the-global-temperature-trend-part-2
  

Enjoy

Byrne must go

 Anthony Byrne is a Victorian ALP member of parliament. He is a member of the right wing faction.

Read Michelle Grattan's piece and wonder why Albo has not acted yet.

Byrne has admitted various wrong doings. One does not have to wait until the final report. Albo should act now.

As Grattan enunciates it undermines his hitherto successful attacks on the government on integrity a federal ICAC in particular.

Do it Albo and do it today!!

Around the Traps 15/10/21

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Alex Simpson on the-pandora-papers-show-the-line-between-tax-avoidance-and-tax-evasion-has-become-so-blurred-we-need-to-act-against-both
• Alison Reeve on we-cant-stabilise-the-climate-without-carbon-offsets-so-how-do-we-make-them-work
• Ross Gittins on fear-is-driving-good-economic-policy, we-risk-becoming-business-kleptocracy-with-pollies-showing-the-way
• renew economy on forrest-to-build-massive-hydrogen-wind-solar-and-cabling-factory-in-queensland, net-zero-by-2050-means-eliminating-fossil-fuels-from-the-grid-by-2035, nsw-unveils-80-billion-green-hydrogen-strategy-with-incentives-to-plug-into-grid, unstoppable-transition-australia-can-hit-91-renewables-by-2030, renewable-exports-worth-more-than-coal-and-gas-will-create-more-jobs, bhp-signs-landmark-renewable-energy-deal-for-huge-olympic-dam-mine
• Greg Jericho on how-do-you-raise-mortgage-rates-without-actually-raising-them, delta-has-hit-australias-economy-harder-than-any-other-oecd-nation-but-its-not-all-bad-news
• Yee-Fui Ng on ibac-vs-icac-what-are-these-anti-corruption-commissions-and-how-do-they-compare
• Stephen Duckett on keeping-workers-covid-safe-requires-more-than-just-following-public-health-orders
• Richard Ogier on subs-australia-s-reputation-overboard
• Geoff Cockfield on the-net-zero-bandwagon-is-gathering-steam-and-resistant-mps-are-about-to-be-run-over
• Christian Downie and Llewlyn Hughes on asias-energy-pivot-is-a-warning-to-australia-clinging-to-coal-is-bad-for-the-economy
• Laura Crommelin et al on water-leaks-cracks-and-flawed-fire-safety-systems-sydneys-apartments-are-riddled-with-building-defects
• Institutional Economics on prediction-markets-and-sophisticated-investors
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-jobkeeper-delivered-what-was-needed-to-save-the-patient
• Elizabeth Sander on how-many-days-a-week-in-the-office-are-enough-you-shouldnt-need-to-ask

Northern America

• the time of monsters on ostracise-john-eastman, the-federalist-societys-silent-brush
• Menzie Chinn on parsing-the-september-employment-release, guest-contribution-corporate-taxation-and-u-s-international-financial-integration-a-consolidated-by-nationality-approach
• noahopinion on why-do-people-worry-about-deficits, life-in-the-new-american-suburbs, ok-now-is-it-time-to-worry-about-inflation
• NewDeal Democrat on september-jobs-report-once-again-two-very-different-surveys-net-to-a-relatively-disappointing-gain
• Erin Hurley on biden-has-patience-age
• 538 on why-has-bidens-approval-rating-gotten-so-low-so-quickly
• Calculated Risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-and-trimmed-mean
• Adam Serwer on alito-supreme-court-texas-abortion
• Michael Tesler on why-abortion-may-now-motivate-democrats-more-than-republicans

Europe

• Marcus Colla on germany-and-europe-ampel-time-reform
• Mainly Macro on how-many-people-is-johnson-allowing-to-die

Asia

• China talk on invisible-china-how-the-urban-rural Thanks Brad
• Nengye Liu and Chen Jiliang on china-and-future-antarctic-mining-ban
• Tony Walker on lebanons-crisis-has-gone-from-bad-to-worse-but-is-anyone-listening
• Helen Clark on vietnam-had-seemingly-conquered-covid-then-delta-spread
• Jia Deng on aukus-why-beijing-didn-t-go-ballistic
• Ben Saul on would-war-over-taiwan-be-legal

Wonk

• Barkley Rosser on the-origin-of-the-terms-socialism-and-communism
• Lurion De Mello on suddenly-we-are-in-the-middle-of-a-global-energy-crisis-what-happened
• the conversable economist on a-economics-nobel-prize-for-causality-angrist-card-and-imbens
• noahopinion on the-econ-nobel-we-were-all-waiting-for
• Donald Rothwell on line-sand-how-sea-level-rise-challenging-international-law
• stumbling and mumbling on skill-as-a-social-construct
• Stochastic Trend on how-large-is-economy-wide-rebound-effect
• Fleur Johns on opening-icj-and-opportunity-renewal
• Tyler Cowen on how-do-low-real-interest-rates-affect-optimal-tax-policy
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-foreign-official-demand-for-us-debt-and-us-interest-rates-accounting-for-global-common-factors
• Wesley Morgan on what-is-cop26-and-why-does-the-fate-of-earth-and-australias-prosperity-depend-on-it
• Stephen Grenville on covid-and-failure-global-cooperation

General

• Ziteng Wang et al on we-found-a-mysterious-flashing-radio-signal-from-near-the-centre-of-the-galaxy
• Joshua Blackman and Andrew Cole on a-distant-dead-star-shows-a-glimpse-of-our-solar-systems-future

Climate

• Real Climate on a-nobel-pursuit
• and Then Theres Physics on science-communication
• Peter Sinclair on stunning-satellite-view-of-greenland-surface-melt-august-2021
• Essays Concerning on is-2c-a-big-deal

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• fun-example-of-an-observational-study-effect-of-crowd-noise-on-home-field-advantage-in-sports
  
• oooh-i-hate-it-when-people-call-me-disingenuous
  
• learning-by-confronting-the-contradictions-in-our-statements-actions-beliefs
  
• comments-on-a-nobel-prize-in-economics-for-causal-inference
  
• can-the-dunning-kruger-effect-be-explained-as-a-misunderstanding-of-regression-to-the-mean
  
• just-about-any-dataset-worth-analyzing-is-worth-reanalyzing-my-review-of-new-explorations-into-international-relations-democracy-foreign-investment-terrorism-and-conflict-by-seung-whan-choi
  
• why-are-goods-stacking-up-at-u-s-ports
  
• i-have-some-skepticism-about-this-future-directions-for-applying-behavioral-economics-to-policy-project
  
• Tim Harford on how-to-spot-scientists-who-peddle-bad-data
• statschat on vaccine-percentages
• Kaiser Fung on the-booster-shot-data-reveal-why-rcts-are-the-gold-standard

Econometrics

• Freakometrics on individual risks and collective decisions

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• reforming-economics-the-heterodox-manifesto
  
• what-should-economics-be-cogs-monsters-out-today
  
• Andrew Gelman on standard-deviation-by-katherine-heiny

Vox Wonk

• all-weather-economic-policy-framework-euro-area
  
• no-brainers-and-low-hanging-fruit-national-climate-policy
  
• why-military-purchasing-power-parity-matters
  
• poverty-and-exposure-covid-19-role-income-support
  
• antidumping-duties-prices-and-china
  
• globalisation-and-inflation-insights-ecb-strategy-review
  
• economic-geography-climate-change
  
• global-evidence-profit-shifting-role-intangible-assets
  
• redistributive-effects-monetary-easing-across-generations
  
• simulating-future-global-automation-its-consequences-and-evaluating-policy-options
  
• bias-news-coverage-during-2016-us-election
  
• search-congruent-euro-area-policy-mix
  
• ageing-and-real-interest-rate-japan
  
• ecb-monetary-policy-and-catch-inflation
  

Arnie is having himself on

 Prior to playing Japan on Tuesday night the Socceroos had won 11 successive world cup qualifiers. They did not play well yet did not play badly, they simply played well enough to win against in the main teams of limited quality.

I was apprehensive coming into the match for two reasons.

1. We have very few players who play in the big leagues
2. Japan always play well against us and we rarely win.

As it is we played very poorly. IMHO only Ryan played well. The right back played well in the first half but came right back to the filed in the second.

Arnie said we were unlucky. Wrong. We were lucky the score was not 4 or 5 -1 not 2-1.

Arnold yet again was shown up in strategy. Up to this match he had never played Mooy and Rogic in the same team. He did in this match. It showed. Mooy played like a man who has had few matches and Rogic again failed to deliver.

What problems does Arnie have to think about. We desperately need a left back. Soutar looks completely out of his depth. Deng looks a better prospect than he. Boyle needs support upfront. It was unfortunate that a lot of players had bad matches all at the same time. hopefully this will be a one-off.

We need to beat Saudia Arabia on novermber 11!!

Australia can hit 91% renewables by 2030

 I thought that would get your attention.

Courtesy of renew economy read unstoppable-transition-australia-can-hit-91-renewables-by-2030

Put a price on carbon as we should/must and it happens even quicker. Why you ask?  Because the price of carbon products such as coal do not include the costs of pollution and emissions for a start.

The worry about deficits

 I do love Noah Smith whose blog is Noahopinion. Get it!. He writes well and quite decisively. moreover since he moved his blog to substack we get a lot more articles.

The article why-do-people-worry-about-deficits is very much in this vein.

Well worth a read.

Net zero carbon emissions by 2050 is good for the economy

 There now have been two reports examining zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Both Deloitte Access economics and the Business Council of Australia have both produced reports saying it would have BENEFITS for Australia. Just remember this is a huge change from the BCA. A welcome change nevertheless.

It is also very good for the regions o why aren't the Nationals on board.

As an added bonus no-brainers-and-low-hanging-fruit-national-climate-policy

and economic-geography-climate-change

Around the Traps 8/1/21

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Andrew Goldsmith and AJ Brown on as-a-nsw-premier-falls-and-sa-guts-its-anti-corruption-commission-what-are-the-lessons-for-integrity-bodies-in-australia
• Trivess Moore et al on better-building-standards-are-good-for-the-climate-your-health-and-your-wallet-heres-what-the-national-construction-code-could-do-better
• Savitri Taylor on multibillion-dollar-strategy-with-no-end-in-sight-australias-enduring-offshore-processing-deal-with-nauru
• Dennis Muller on icac-is-not-a-curse-and-probity-in-government-matters-the-australian-media-would-do-well-to-remember-that
• Catherine Bennett on australias-international-borders-to-reopen-from-november-its-one-big-step-towards-living-with-covid
• Ross Gittins on economists-need-updating-on-what-makes-humans-tick, the-economy-can-self-correct-but-only-to-a-point , farmers-have-most-to-lose-or-gain-from-climate-change
• renew economy on regulatory-madness-promotes-dirty-diesel-over-renewable-mini-grid-at-broken-hill, electrify-everything-and-go-renewable-turns-out-its-much-cheaper-than-thought, australias-accelerating-energy-transition-renewables-leap-to-35-4-pct-in-september, sunshine-for-sale-nt-plans-massive-hubs-to-support-solar-battery-and-hydrogen
• Anne Twomey on explainer-with-nsw-facing-3-byelections-could-the-parliament-be-suspended-to-avoid-government-defeat
• Christopher Baker et al on tired-of-lockdown-rules-our-analysis-shows-most-australians-have-curbed-mixing-and-helped-suppress-covid
• Ian Lowe on 5-reasons-why-the-morrison-government-needs-a-net-zero-target-not-just-a-flimsy-plan
• croaking cassandra on monetary-policy-expectations-etc
• Paul Strangio on where-is-federal-labor-headed-under-anthony-albanese-and-will-it-win-an-election
• Warren Hogan on thanks-to-apra-its-about-to-become-harder-to-get-a-mortgage-heres-why
• Gary Sturgess on a-federal-icac-must-end-the-confusion-between-integrity-questions-and-corruption
• Institutional Economics on financial-repression-coming-to-a-home-loan-near-you
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-laugh-at-the-us-if-you-will-but-australia-narrowly-escaped-a-debt-ceiling
• Michelle Grattan on morrison-government-faces-battle-over-integrity-commission-it-doesnt-really-want

Northern America

• Ian Millhiser on neil-gorsuch-nihilism-supreme-court-voting-rights-lgbt-housing-obamacare-constitution
• Jelani Cobb on why-republicans-are-still-recounting-votes
• noahopinion on why-the-build-back-better-negotiations-are-going-to-dissapoint-me
• the conversable economist on payoffs-from-community-college-how-choice-of-major-matters, blips-or-not-alternative-inflation-measures
• the time of monsters on regarding-henry-kissinger, facebooks-firestorm
• Brad De Long on the-strange-death-of-conservative-america
• Constance Grady on monica-lewinsky-bill-clinton-impeachment-american-crime-story
• Julia Azari on are-democrats-dysfunctional-or-just-disagreeing
• Li Zhou on debt-ceiling-congress
• Jonathan Blitzer on how-biden-came-to-own-trumps-policy-at-the-border
• Simon Copland on covid-politics-far-right

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on in-search-of-the-centre-ground
• William Partlett on russia-is-building-its-own-kind-of-sovereign-internet-with-help-from-apple-and-google
• Mainly Macro on are-there-good-reasons-why-starmer-preferred-fighting-the-left-to-biden's-unity-approach

Asia

• Elliot Zaagman on china-s-age-ambition-over
• Mohamed Zeeshan on could-india-join-five-eyes
• Wen-Ti Sung on why-taiwan-remains-calm-in-the-face-of-unprecedented-military-pressure-from-china
• Khang Vu on biden-s-lukewarm-diplomacy-north-korea-runs-hot-and-cold
• Peter Layton on chinese-warplanes-overhead-taiwan-or-maybe-not

Wonk

• Orli Zahava on arms-control-stocktake
• Rolan Rajah and Stephen Grenville on scope-negotiate-china-cptpp
• Tim Harford on the-power-of-putting-yourself-in-someone-elses-shoes
• Chris Bertram on group-size-and-tolerating-those-with-whom-we-disagree
• Coppola Comment on maya-forstaters-human-rights-problem
• Tyler Cowen on new-issue-of-econ-journal-watch
• the conversable economist on cryptocurrencies-an-update-and-overview
• David Tuffley on what-caused-the-unprecedented-facebook-outage-the-few-clues-point-to-a-problem-from-within
• Oriana Mastro and Zack Cooper on defence-aukus
• Grant Wyeth  on aukus-what-happens-if-republicans-play-trump-card
• Pushp Tiwari on nobel-prize-why-climate-modellers-deserved-the-physics-award-theyve-been-proved-right-again-and-again
• Barkley Rosser on the-origin-of-terms-socialism-and-communism
• 
  

General

• Francis McGlone on nobel-prize-how-chili-peppers-helped-researchers-uncover-how-humans-feel-pain
• Stoat on the-nobel-prize-in-physics-2021

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on estimates-of-the-economic-damages-from-climate-change, science-based-targets
• noahopinion on nuclear-vs-solar

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• i-cant-quite-say-im-shocked-that-people-arent-more-shocked-about-harvard-and-the-cdcs-latest-misdeeds-but-im-disappointed-that-people-arent-more-disappointed
  
• trash-talkin
  
• if-you-put-an-o-on-understo-youll-ruin-my-thunderstorm
  
• how-the-white-pundit-class-is-being-destroyed
  
• when-to-use-ordered-categorical-regression
  
• whats-a-good-supply-demand-model-to-study-visualization-equilibria-in-rideshare-taxi-routing
  
• this-is-a-wonderful-graph-because-it-clearly-reveals-that
  
• Kaiser Fung on does-biometrics-authentication-work, why-do-we-have-biased-datasets, measuring-value-by-how-much-was-spent, reading-the-evidence-for-the-booster-shot
  
• statschat on every-subgroup

Econometrics

• nutti

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• nuttin as well

Vox Wonk

• scapegoating-ethnic-minorities
  
• current-bail-design-does-not-resolve-too-big-fail-problem
  
• covid-vaccination-experiences
  
• rethinking-pension-systems-europe-post-covid-19-world
  
• trust-ecb-during-pandemic
  
• evidence-effects-work-requirements-safety-net-programmes
  
• recycling-revenue-improve-political-feasibility-carbon-pricing-uk
  
• mandatory-corporate-carbon-disclosures-and-path-net-zero
  
• enhancing-contribution-intangible-assets-productivity
  
• novel-risk-management-perspective-macroprudential-policy
  
• tightening-bank-equity-capital-regulation
  
• distrust-versus-speculation-drivers-cryptocurrency-investments
  
• lessons-2011-us-debt-ceiling-crisis
  
• reallocation-effects-minimum-wage
  

electrigy everything and save money

 A really interesting article at Renew Australia on electrify-everything-and-go-renewable-turns-out-its-much-cheaper-than-thought.

Just remember it was Ross Garnaut who said Australia has a comparative advantage in renewables. This simply concentrates on that

Book Review: Bradman's war

 I need a change of pace ( pun intended) so I am reviewing an old book but still the BEST book on cricket I have ever read.

Whilst football is my first love I have to say I prefer to read books on cricket. They are mostly good reads and tell a lot about the people involved.

This book is no different. It is mainly about Bradman. The poms were desperate for him to your in 1948. It is amazing to what lengths they went to. A ridiculous small amount of overs until a new ball was allowed was one. He was even influential in who played for England in the 5 tests.

What is also interesting is how luck helped the Aussies. If they were in a perilous position it rained. It didn't if Australia were in a winning position.

I had always known Bradman was an unpopular person amongst players before the war but until I read the book I did not realise he was unpopular amongst those players who had served in the war such as Keith Miller.

I have but one criticism Knox estimates Lindwall's pace in the 140k range. Trevor Bailey in his book said Lindwall's pace was similar to Hall at his peak which would make it at least 150k. Possibly similar to Lille in his prime.

If you enjoy cricket and you will  love this book. Highly recommended.

Climate Deniers cannot read graphs

 Tamino at Open Mind gives a very good example of a person who simply cannot read a graph.

Paul Homeland has a blog called not a lot of people know that. No it is not ironic.

I have seen him before excoriated by the writer of the arctic sea ice blog on declining sea ice at the arctic. He simply did not understand basic statistics.  To us in Australia he was a big fan of the myth that the terrible bush fires we experienced were the result of arson.

Tamino's article says it all. It is embarrassing but alas climate deniers are never embarrassed.

Gladyls talking porkies again

 For a person who continually tells us that she upholds the highest integrity our Gladys tells a lot of porkies.

The latest is she had to resign. What a lot of cobblers. She could have stood aside just like Neville Wran did when the then Chief Justice investigated allegations made about Wran. They were found to be pitchout foundation and he resumed being Premier. 

Can we just talk about ICAC getting rid of three Liberal premiers for a minute. Greiner was found guilty and resigned and then appealed to the court of appeals who found in his favour. O'Farrell resigned because of his own words at a press conference following evidence given at the ICAC.

Gladys could have easily stood aside and wait for the ICAC conclusions. This is what an innocent person would have done. That she did not is probably due to what she learned in private hearings. She has undoubtedly breached the ICAC act. That is not a hanging act however. The two grants made to her former lover's electorate might be the problem. 

She has lambasted the ICAC and resigned from Parliament. This means less publicity when she finally fronts up in the ICAC. A lot less publicity if the ICAC has damaging evidence against her.

All this has occurred because she did not tell anyone about her 5 year relationship and further did nothing when he was driving fast and furious down the highway of illegality.