Yield Curve Madness

Francess Coppolla has written about this recently.

I confess I am an old yield curve junkie and I would add something she has not.
In only one example she gives ( the USA) has the Central Bank actually raised short term interest rates. Indeed even in this case I would not be surprised that most of the inversions has occurred  because of bond yield falling not because ob central banks raising short term interest rates ( because of rising inflation).

This Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser has quite a few times examined the yield curve in the USA.

Thus I am only worried about the inverted yield curve causing a slowdown/ recession  in the USA. You will see Australia is part of this pattern. We will not have a recession/slowdown here because of this for the reason I have stated.