Around the Traps 1/9/17

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Samantha Hepburn on victoria-is-the-latest-state-to-take-renewable-energy-into-its-own-hands
• Rachel Ong on how-governments-have-widened-the-gap-between-generations-in-home-ownership
• Katrin Lee-Koo and Jacqui True on responding-women-roles-countering-violent-extremism
• Ross Gttins on government-losing-its-resistance-to-rentseeking-businesses , a-terrible-injustice-most-of-us-could-face , turns-out-productivitys-been-fine-all-along
• Marc C Scott on the-impact-of-cbss-takeover-of-ten-is-much-larger-than-just-one-network
• Croaking Cassandra on participating-in-the-labour-market , on-a-declared-candidate-for-governor , on-graeme-wheelers-farewell-speech , productivity-growth-in-perspective
• Lyrian Daniel and Emma Baker on forget-heatwaves-our-cold-houses-are-much-more-likely-to-kill-us
• Marc Hudson on the-australian-greens-at-25-fighting-the-same-battles-but-still-no-breakthrough
• Andreas Hellman on we-tracked-how-investors-read-company-reports-and-heres-how-theyre-misled
• Kevin Bonham on not-poll-best-prime-minister-of-last-45-years
• Peter Noonan and Sarah Pilcher on there-is-no-apprenticeships-crisis-in-australia
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-living-in-the-past-wont-distract-from-our-current-economic-woes
• Ross Guest and Ben Hachey on face-value-business-leaders-are-betting-we-will-spend-more
• Jon Brodie et al on the-new-great-barrier-reef-pollution-plan-is-better-but-still-not-good-enough

Northern American

• Mathew Kahn on who-bears-incidence-of-hurricane-harvey Thanks Mark
• Pro Growth liberal on michael-boskins-revisionist-economic-history
• Jim Molan on trump-afghanistan-policy-best-16-years
• Nina Lam on americans-who-live-far-from-coasts-should-also-be-worried-about-flooding 
• Calculated Risk on real-house-prices-and-price-to-rent-in-June , the-impact-of-harvey-on-unemployment , a-few-comments-on-seasonal-pattern-for-housing , comment-a-disappointing-employment-report
• Kruggers on zoning-both-sides-get-it-wrong , monopoly-rents-and-corporate-taxation-wonkish
• Tim Duy on yellens-odds-of-being-reappointed-get-slimmer Thanks Mark
• Barry Ritholz on born-again-fiscal-hawks-turn-into-doves
• Maggy Koerth Baker on what-can-we-do-if-a-president-has-a-conflict-of-interest-but-doesnt-think-he-does
• Noah Smith on there-s-something-the-matter-with-ohio-too
• German Lopez on antifa-violence
• Austin Lewis on value-added/no-one-measure-of-inequality-tells-the-whole-story-income-wealth-and-consumption-should-be-considered-together Thanks Brad
• Macroblog on is-poor-health-hindering-economic-growth Thanks Mark 
• Promarket on raghuram-rajan-populist-outcry-cry-help
• The Conversable economist on adam-smith-on-benefits-of-public-education
• The Bonddad blog on trickle-down-with-emphasis-on-trickle Thanks Mark

Europe

• Mainly Macro on would-remain-win-second-referendum , why-brexit-has-led-to-falling-real-wages
• Kevin O'Rourke on could-ireland-credibly-threaten-to-veto-an-eu-uk-trade-deal

Asia

• Barkely Rosser on is-david-ignatius-falling-for-saudi-propaganda
• Parer McCawley on five-years-of-abenomics-in-japan
• Tony Walker on as-it-launches-another-missile-we-must-realise-there-are-no-easy-options-for-dealing-with-north-korea
• Shashank Joshi on how-trump-s-new-approach-pakistan-might-pan-out
• Sidney Jones on has-marawi-killed-philippines-peace-process
• Vanessa Newby on don-t-ask-un-fight-america-s-war-against-hizbullah
• Peter Nadim on how-un-security-council-failed-syria
• Rory Medcalf on doklam-who-won
• Darshani Baruah on delhi-s-new-indian-ocean-diplomacy

Wonk

• Mary Hansen and Nicholas Ziebarth on credit relationships and business bankruptcy in the great depresssion Thanks Brad
• stumbling and mumbling on on-models-downs , against-high-ceo-pay
• The Conversable Economist on what-structure-are-academic-researchers-building , the-timidity-and-buzzard-mentality-of-professors , how-jargonauts-keep-normies-in-their-place
• Ben Chu on economics-morality-nobel-prize-laureates-oliver-hart-jean-tirole-amoral-drift Thanks Mark
• Fresh Economic Thinking on a-random-physicist-takes-on-economics Thanks Mark
• Roger Farmer on short-sharp-shocks
• Samuel Bowles, Alan Kirman and Rajith Sethi on Friedrick Hayek and the market algorithm Thanks Brad
• Alan Auerbach and  Yuriy Gorodnichenko on fiscal stimulus and fiscal responsibility Thanks Brad
• Marc Bellamare on editorial insights: cite intelligently
• Tim Harford on what-we-get-wrong-about-technology
• Bank Underground on who-withdraws-money-from-distressed-banks Thanks Mark
• Croaking Cassandra on labour-share-of-income
• Nick Gruen on leadership-without-careerism-is-it-possible
• Stephen Grenville on addressing-global-capital-flows
• Alan Oxley on protectionism-not-rise
• Nick Rowe on the-exchange-rate-and-net-exports-contribution-to-growth

General

• Dan Crawford on data-scientist-cathy-oneil-algorithms-are-opinions-embedded-in-code
• Jeanall Carrigasn on decoding-the-music-masterpieces-schuberts-winterreise
• Lydia Khalil on islamic-state-is-changing-the-face-of-terrorism
• Paul Fritjers on where-game-of-thrones-misunderstands-politics-and-religion
• Ri Scarborough on of-mice-and-men-why-animal-trial-results-dont-always-translate-to-humans
• Troy Whitford on explainer-what-is-antifa-and-where-did-it-come-from
• Brad De Long on for-the-filing-cabinet-using-computers-and-data-science-here-in-the-twenty-first-century ( quite long)
• Ken Chitwood on explaining-the-muslim-pilgrimage-of-hajj
• Understanding society on new-thinking-about-causal-mechanisms Thanks Mark

Climate

• David Appell on how-climate-change-is-making-houston-worse
• Greg Laden on questions-about-harvey , harvey-the-hurricane-truly-climate-change-enahnced , new-research-on-assessing-climate-change-impact-on-extreme-weather
• David Roberts on harvey-climate-change 
• Desmog on how-exxon-used-new-york-times-make-you-question-climate-science
• and Then Theres Physics on early-20th-century-warming, extreme-weather-events
• moyhu on gulf-sst-warm-before-harvey-cool-after
• Andrew Hopkins on biofuel-breakthroughs-bring-negative-emissions-a-step-closer
• Stoat on us-energy-agency-asked-scientists-to-scrub-references-to-climate-change
• Andrew King on australias-record-breaking-winter-warmth-linked-to-climate-change

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• chris-moore-guy-molyneux-etan-green-david-daniels-bayesian-umpires
• using-statistical-prediction-also-called-machine-learning-potentially-save-lots-resources-criminal-justice
• mainstream-medicine-share-unnecessary-unhelpful-treatments
• best-practices-observational-studies
• groseclose-endgame-getting
• make-reported-statistical-analysis-summaries-hear-no-distinction-see-no-ensembles-speak-no-non-random-error
• causal-identification-observational-study-multilevel-model
• Rick Wicklin on the-singular-value-decomposition-a-fundamental-technique-in-multivariate-data-analysis
• Kaiser Fung on the-things-you-learn-from-a-coffee-menu-footnote , uber-data-collection-makes-news-again
• Stats chat on fda-doesnt-make-vaccine-approvals-impossible
• Junk charts on the-salaries-are-attractive-but-the-chart-isnt

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• No Hesitations on new-p-value-thresholds-for-statistical-significance
• Econometric Sense on granger-causality

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• women-in-economics
• books-at-a-conference
• Chris Bertram on review-of-betts-and-collier-on-refugees

Vox Wonk

• william-baumol-s-amazing-scholarly-career
• consumption-inequality-and-frequency-purchases
• measuring-systemic-implications-bank-resolution
• financial-crisis-ten-years
• risk-intolerance-and-global-economy
• economic-segregation-us-schools
• economic-shocks-and-homicide-brazil
• international-spillovers-and-local-credit-cycles
• local-interactions-between-public-and-private-employment

There is no conservative case for same sex marriage.

I am somewhat bemused by reading and hearing so called conservatives saying there is a conservative case for same sex marriage.
There is not.
Marriage is an EXCLUSIVE arrangement between a man and a woman. It is strongly linked to family and thus the bringing up of children.

Changing the definition from man and woman to either man and man or woman and woman simply makes no sense. Homosexuals can NEVER have children together. Only one of the two can be a natural parent.

It is therefore a RADICAL change. Conservatives do not endorse radical change.

On a related matter CHRISTIANS can NEVER endorse same sex marriage.
This is because firstly Jesus quoted Genesis when he talked of marriage ie. being between a man  and a woman.
Secondly any sexual activity outside of marriage is sinful. This is much more usually adultery ( Jesus had a very stringent view on divorce) and fornication. It also includes the act of homosexuality ( but not being a homosexual.)

This week has been great for Test Cricket

What a week fir Test cricket. After the Windies got absolutely thrashed in the first test and people were mumbling they did not deserve to play amongst the better teams in test cricket they came back and won in style in the second test.
Then last night the Bangladesh team beat Australia. They showed grit and great spirit to beat Australia. I am sure their coach has made a lot of difference Chandika Hathursingha. Chandy as the boys at Epping boys high call him as his oldest son is in his last year there, is as fine a bloke as you could meet. Softly spoken, humble and but steel when needed.

Test cricket needed both these results to give it a fillip.
Given my wife is from Bangladesh and I know the coach I was going for the Banglas.

Lets us hope the Ashes prove to be as good but with us winning easily of course!

Fiscal Stimulus and fiscal responsibility

I  was reading Brad De Long's excellent blog and came across this gem.

Now it is hard reading but extremely worth it.


An added bonus from there is Friedrich Hayek and the Market Algorithm

Enjoy

Harvey and Climate Change

and Then There Physics has a great article on extreme weather events which of course Harvey is.
He makes the point extreme weather events are not caused by global warming There are however links to global warming.
As an added Bonus I put in Steve from Brisbane's piece from vox.
This is topical ,  so is this

I am not very happy with Virgin

Many moons ago I reluctantly bought a mobile phone ( a nokia) and got on a plan from Virgin in which I only paid for phone calls I made. I got the phone so people could call me. It was mainly my wife and people in sporting associations I was helping.

This is still the case only now my two boys have phones and call me if something occurs.

I got an e-mail from Virgin last week informing me that this plan was to be discontinued but Virgin was going to put me on a you beaut plan where I could get all this date and texts for $30 a month. My annual bill does not get that high!

A few things.

Firstly an e-mail such as this is very in-person.
It was a classic general e-mail . Just a cursory look at my account would show it is very unlikely I would be interested in plans with data and I make few phone-calls.

Consequently I have to decide whether to continue to have a mobile phone or try and find a very cheap plan. I may even have to start texting.

Either way it is bye bye Virgin. The very idea it is customer focused have been shown to be a sham.

Marohasy found out.

Jenifer Marohasy and John Abbot, whom are climate deniers, published a paper no less in a journal ( which is now  closing down perhaps understandably.)
Eli Rabbett made a comment and showed us some comments on Twitter which showed Marohasy completely out of her depth. ( check out the comments as well.)

Graham Readfern then  wrote about it in much more detail. There is and Then Theres Physics or Daily Kos

How in the hell did this pass peer review unless the peers that reviewed aren't peers at all? No wonder the journal is no longer publishing! It may also show peer review is nowhere near as good as it is cracked up to be.

Marohasy has been a joke for some time. She is very keen on conspiracy stories concerning the BOM and CSIRO.  No matter each time and every time an explanation is given and all the data is public!

Climate deniers are such poor conspiracy people. Conspiracies do not come from publicly available data.
Morahasy should stick to stupid conspiracy theories.

Songs that are better live than in the studio

Okay we have seen quite a few songs that really cannot be done live.

However what about the opposite.
Being live means have a good tight band. It means you cannot rely on production techniques to ensure the song is okay. In a lot of cases the live song is very different.
The first example is Lou Reed. Rock and Roll done with Velvet Underground is pretty boring.

Now give Lou Reed a fantastic backing backing band  ( special mention to Steve Hunter and Dick Wagner on guitar) and the song is transformed. The guitar licks are fantastic.

From RocknRoll Animal, the best live album of all time we have the live version.

amazing

I saw Reed and this band perform at the old Hordern Pavilion in 1975 and it is still the best live show I ever saw.

Around the Traps 25/8/17

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Stephen Grenville on o-canada-australia-best-hope-global-ip-struggle
• Croaking Cassandra on debating-housing, economic-performance , treasury-not-convinced-about-the-economic-strategy , wage-inflation-surprisingly-high , disagreeing-with-don-brash-on-monetary-policy , wages-and-profits
• The Kouk on australia-has-given-up-on-solving-unemployment , why-don-t-governments-deliver-policies-that-are-good-for-the-electorate
• Nick Gruen on patricia-edgar-on-childrens-tv-part-two
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-newspoll-moves-it-is-alive
• Harry Scheule on banks-shouldnt-underestimate-the-risk-of-concentration-in-the-housing-market
• Wiliam Clarke and Bernadette McCabe on capturing-the-true-wealth-of-australias-waste
• Ross Gittins on what-youd-have-to-live-on-if-you-were-poor , in-truth-theres-no-apprenticeship-crisis
• Greg Jericho on in-a-week-of-idiotic-politics-scott-morrisons-contribution-on-tax-was-right-up-there , is-it-time-for-labor-to-end-the-hands-off-approach-to-industrial-relations , the-economy-might-have-turned-a-corner-but-consumers-wont-feel-so-enthused . its-not-new-to-accuse-labor-of-socialism-but-this-panicked-attack-is-threadbare
• Andrew Carr on should-war-require-parliamentary-approval
• Mark Humphries-Jenner on explainer-what-exactly-must-companies-disclose-to-investors
• Michael De Percy on getting-serious-on-roads-reform-is-one-way-our-political-leaders-can-get-back-on-track
• Bruce Mountain on finkels-clean-energy-target-plan-better-than-nothing-economists-poll
• Peter Saunders on new-budget-standards-show-just-how-inadequate-the-newstart-allowance-has-become

Northern America

• Carola Binder on the-low-misery-dilemma
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on ninth-anniversary-of-the-gses-conservatorships-not-a-time-to-celebrate Thanks Mark
• Economic Principals on Ahem Stanley Fischer for the Fed Thanks Mark
• Jonatan Haidt on what-happens-when-the-president-commits-sacrilege
• The Conversable economist on the-next-inflection-point-for-aging-and-social-security
• Hugh White on what-us-would-need-deter-china
• Henry Enten on fake-polls-are-a-real-problem
• James Bowen on this-week-its-trump-the-conventional-republican-hawk
• Michael Bret Hart on expansion-of-cashless-welfare-card-shows-shock-tactics-speak-louder-than-evidence
• Dara Lind on immigration-congress-trump
• James Fallows on the-republican-party-is-enabling-an-increasingly-dangerous-demagogue
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-july-new-home-sales, a-few-comments-on-july-existing-home-sales
• noahopinion on the-market-power-story
• James McPherson on southern-comfort Thanks Brad
• Dylan Scott on obamacare-empty-counties-fixed
• Nate Silver on 7-rules-for-reading-trumps-approval-rating
• Tim Duy on the-market-is-behaving-much-like-it-did-in-the-past Thanks Mark
• CBPP on decline-in-labor-force-participation-not-due-to-disability-programs Thanks Mark
• Larry Summers on issues-under-discussion-at-jackson-hole Thanks Mark
• Kenneth Thomas on Reports of Obamacare's death are greatly exaggerated
• New Deal Democrat on an-economy-on-autopilot-between-scylla-and-charybdis
• Corey Robin on when-political-scientists-invite-torturers-to-talk
• Jim Molan on trump-disruptive-tendencies-afghanistan
• Michael J Boskin on can-trump-turn-his-presidency-around Thanks Brad
• Mathew Yglesias on trump-health-care-lies

Europe

• Mainly Macro on brexit-remains-exercise-in-deception , the-bbc-and-patrick-minford
• Long and Variable on where-does-the-false-balance-policy-come-from-in-the-broadcast-media
• Frank Barry on leavers-and-remainers-southern-irelands-exit-from-the-united-kingdom
• Roger Farmer on agent-based-models-and-loss-aversion-in-the-uk-housing-market
• Frances Coppolla on tariffs-trade-and-money-illusion
• Seamus Coffey on that-26%-growth-rate-from-startled-earwigs-to-stars-in-our-eyes
• Stumbling and Mumbling on in-defence-of-laura-pidcock
• Dirk Kurbjuweit on why-germany-will-never-have-a-trump

Asia

• Kerry Brown on big-job-ahead-china-s-new-envoy-north-korea
• Druva Jaishankar on india-feeling-heat-belt-road
• Dina Esfandiary on increasingly-fragile-iran-nuclear-deal
• Michael Heazle on unacceptable-dangers-accepting-nuclear-north-korea
• David Brewster on doklam-stand-may-spark-indian-ocean-tensions
• Rod Barton on north-korea-shipments-raise-questions-about-syria-chemical-weapons
• Elliot Brennan on trial-exile-what-next-thailand-s-yingluck

Wonk

• stumbling and mumbling on on-zero-sum-thinking , willing-the-ends-but-not-the-means , a-new-capital
• Justin  Wolfers on evidence-of-a-toxic-environment-for-women-in-economics Thanks Brad
• The Conversable economist on foreign-aid-to-haiti-benefitcost-options , will-china-shock-operate-in-reverse , the-smile-curve-distribution-of-benefits-from-global-value-chains
• Tim Harford on challenge-is-all-too-easily-ducked-by-todays-knowledge-workers
• David Beckworth on the-ioer-debate-redux
• Bank Underground on bitesize-the-very-volatile-value-of-cryptocurrencies Thanks Mark
• Promarket on bribery-cooperation-evolution-prosocial-institutions Thanks Mark
• Brad Setser on g-3-coordination-failures-past-eight-years-riff-coure-and-brainard Thanks Mark
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-dont-expect-much-from-the-central-bankers-at-jackson-hole
• Carola Binder on new-argument-for-higher-inflation-target
• Mainly Macro on medicine-and-microfoundations-hegemony

General

• Rodger Shanahan on 5-brutal-truths-of-terrorism
• Lori Moore on aint-it-always-stephen-stills
• James Goldrick on collision-at-sea
• Daniel Mansfield and Norman Wildberger on written-in-stone-the-worlds-first-trigonometry-revealed-in-an-ancient-babylonian-tablet

Climate

• Critical Angle on july-2017-global-temperature-anomaly-update
• and Then Theres Physics on sts-all-talk-and-no-walk , 
• Hotwhopper on don-easterbrook-asks-question-about-global-surface-temperature
• Dev Tayal on what-blackout-how-solar-reliant-power-grids-passed-the-eclipse-test
• David Titley on /why-is-climate-changes-2-degrees-celsius-of-warming-limit-so-important
• Mohyu on surface-temperature-sparsity-error-modes
• Rabett run on marohasy-mess-up
• Robert Stavins on learning-thirty-years-experience-cap-trade-systems Thanks Mark
• Katherine Heyhoe on i-was-an-exxon-funded-climate-scientist
• Graham Readfearn on institute-of-public-affairs-paper-claim-global-warming-natural-junk-science
• Arctic Sea Ice on guest-blog-arctic-prediction-models
• John Abraham on study-climate-costs-hit-trump-country-hardest
• Dana 1981 on harvard-scientists-exxon-challenge-tobacco-playbook

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• babbage-show-not-system-closed-small-group-controlling-access-purse-strings-individuals-selected-scientific-honours
• irish immigrants in the civil war
• wants-readings-replication-crisis-accessible-college-freshmen-economics
• two-papers-ron-kennett-related-workflow
• dont-always-give-em-want-practicing-scientists-want-certainty-dont-want-give
• cumulative-residual-plots-seem-like-usefu
• sucker-mcs-keep-falling-patterns-noise
• nice-interface-poor-content
• perspective-power-pose-lies-outside-science-entirely-criticize-power-pose-sort-category-error-like-criticizing-lord-rings-grounds
• fake-polls-not-new
• Stats chat on effective-treatment-is-effective , briefly
• Junk charts on details-details-details-giving-zillow-a-pie-treatment , naive-analysis-is-naive-debate-about-college-admissions

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• Francis Diebold on bayesian-random-projection-more-on-terrabytes-of-economic-data 
• Marc Bellamare on regression and causality for dummies

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• property-is-theft
• rational-ignorance-redux

Vox wonk

• smaller-firms-suffer-far-more-organised-mafia-style-crime
• impact-demographics-long-term-discount-rates
• new-spring-artificial-intelligence-few-early-economics
• arm-s-length-trade-source-post-crisis-trade-weakness
• productivity-slowdown-even-more-puzzling-you-think
• trump-doctrine-international-trade-part-one
• margins-labour-market-adjustment-trade
• populism-and-trust-europe
• investment-and-growth-advanced-economies-selected-takeaways-ecb-s-sintra-forum
• us-economy-not-yet-back-its-potential
• eurozone-economic-recovery-humming-along-just-fine
• long-term-benefits-quality-early-childcare
• external-debt-us-no-cause-concern-yet
• william-baumol-artist-and-art-economist

The Productivity slowdown. the Whys and Wherefores

The Productivity slowdown is a major topic at present. As Kruggers said so wisely a long time ago 'productivity is everything but in the long term it is almost everything'.
Two people David Byrne and Dan Sichel look at the puzzle. given how important ICT is today it is indeed a puzzle.

They wrote about it at the admirable Vox eu site which I call Vox Wonk on Friday's Around the Traps

I won't do justice to their article nor their findings. Read it HERE

Update:
See Carola Binder 

Stan Grant's heart is in the right place BUT...

Stan Grant made a stir yesterday by claiming amongst other things to change the writing on Captain Cook's statue as he did not discover Australia.

He was both right and wrong. Yes The Australian continent was inhabited before Cook found it however one could scarcely call Aboriginal inhabitance civilisation. No towns or cities for a start. They lived hither and thither. It could be accurately called primitive.

Cook claimed the land on behalf of the Crown but when he did he had no idea of the vastness of the continent.We afterall did not become a Nation until well after Phillip's foray with convicts and others.

This is the main reason why January 26 is highly inappropriate for Australia day. It was on January 1 we became a nation so lets us be accurate and celebrate it on the right day please.We were not a nation on January 26!

Let us be clear. Grant is not talking about taking down statues. In the USA it is entirely appropriate and sensible in some cases. The Confederate statues were mostly put up in the early 20th Century. They were put up by Governments that wanted to subjugate the Negroes. They did this by using terrorists to do their dirty work. The statues celebrate people who did not want a USA at all. I find it very ironic that white nationalists want to praise traitors which in essence what the Confederates were.

I am all for a better understanding of history.Sometimes what we are told is not correct. The Report on the Stolen Generations for example was a complete fraud. As Ron Brunton pointed out at the time ( why oh why do alleged rightwingers use the highly discredited Keith Windshuttle and not Ron Brunton) most aboriginals who were took form their parents were taken for their safety. They were of mixed blood and were threatened by fullblooded aboriginals. Moreover the Royal Commission on Aboriginal Deaths in Custody examined quite a few cases of people being stolen and did not find one case!

I can't say I am all that enthused about finding out about what people did before the White man came here. I am happy for others to read all about it but I prefer to read about civilisations.

We do have a large responsibility however to assist the Aboriginal race in life.They are for the most part highly under privileged. We spend a lot of money yet see no benefit.

THAT is the disgrace we see in Australia. Perhaps Stan should concentrate on that!

Bill Shorten has no case to answer

We are still in the midst of our section 44 embarrassment.

Accusations are flying hither and thither. It seems to me if a person is asked if they are still a dual citizen and they say no. They even give you the year they 'got rid of' their other citizenship then that is fine. It is also fine for anybody to check that out. however the onus is on the person asking to show that the answer is false. I hope we are not living in an age where the onus of proof is quite clearly reversed.

Just remember if Bill Shorten is caught lying on this then the ALP goes from being odds on at winning the next election and he goes from being the next Prime Minister to not even being in politics!

Bill Shorten's case is quite different to the people caught up in this imbroglio. The others found out they were dual citizens and thus had to refer themselves to the Court of Disputed Returns. Only the Greens of all people had the honour of resigning although Xenophon has a good excuse. He checked on Greek/Cyprian citizenship but did not think he would have a fourth rate British citizenship.

Surely the Court of Disputed Returns should look at this matter as urgently as they can. They do not have a large workload!

5 brutal truths about Islamic Terrorism

A very interesting article written by Rodger Shanahan.( his first name had me as I have never seen Rodger spelled as such.)
The Lowy Institute is now the pre-eminent think tank of Foreign Affairs et al now!

Where are the ALP Social Conservatives?

All the talk in the press is about the divisions in the government parties about same sex marriage.BUT what about the ALP? I can remember when the social conservatives dominated the ALP. Right wing Catholics do not understand any biblical context but their heart is usually in the right place.  Where are they now? ( It is ironic that protestants joined Catholics in starting the ALP just like what occurred in the UK with the Labour party  although Wesleyian Methodism was dominant there )

I have not heard anyone from the ALP come out ( pun intended) and state they object to same sex marriage.
Are they frightened politically now? Do they think it is bad for their political future? Or was their Catholic understanding as poor as Tony Burke?

I for one would like to know.

Prorogue Parliament

Parliament is in a mess. We clearly have some MPs who will be declared not to be MP's IF the  Court of disputed Returns  remains consistent to previous decisions of the Court on these matters.

We need two things.
We need an up to date understanding of Section 44.
We then need an audit of all MP's in both houses of Parliament.

I might add it is understandable Bill Shorten wants to play politics with this .Imagine what Tony Abbott would said back in 2011 for example!

An agreement on examining all MPs would have been a better way to go for a statesman!

Until the Court makes a decision the government not only looks paralysed and stupid ( have we declared war on the Kiwis yet?) but in some ways illegitimate.

Songs that are better in the studio that live

Joan Armatrading  has a wonderful song called Love and Affection.

In the studio it is fantastic. The backing vocals outstanding more so the very deep male backing vocal. The production is  really good even now.

Live it really sucks as we can see.Backing vocals so essential are woeful

Around the Traps 18/8/17

It is time for Around the Traps again.


Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Stephen Duckett on why-it-costs-you-so-much-to-see-a-specialist-and-what-the-government-should-do-about-it
• Croaking Cassandra on doomed-to-repeat-history-or-not, misconceived-and-deeply-flawed , some-praise-for-the-reserve-bank , lvr-restrictions , virtue-signalling-with-your-money
• Ross Gittins on why-wage-growth-will-strengthen-before-long , how-we-delude-ourselves-about-cost-of-living , seeking-truth-about-extent-of-unrmployment
• Judith Brett on what-malcolm-turnbull-might-have-learned-from-alfred-deakin
• Andrew Elder on marriage-equality-1-accepting-our-way
• Antony Green on barnaby-joyce-joins-the-citizenship-imbroglio
• Doverbeach on the-howard-changed-the-definition-of-marriage-canard
• Graeme Orr on to-the-high-court-we-go-six-mps-under-clouds-in-decisions-that-could-undermine-the-government
• Anita Foerster and Jacqueline Peel on climate-change-is-a-financial-risk-according-to-a-lawsuit-against-the-cba
• Kevin Bonham on questions-to-abs-re-marriage-law-postal-survey
• Greg Jericho on unemployment-is-falling-but-so-are-wages-its-the-latest-of-a-very-long-slide
• Tony Thomas on cartel-capers-menzies-years Thank you Soony
• John Gooding on paranoia-aotearoa
• Nick Gruen on patricia-edgar-on-childrens-tv-part-one
• The Kouk on are-you-paying-more-or-less-in-2017
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-rba-rates-decision-stuck-between-jobs-growth-and-household-debt
• Anne Twomey on if-high-court-decides-against-ministers-with-dual-citizenship-could-their-decisions-in-office-be-challenged

Northern America

• Carola Binder on macro-in-econ-major-and-at-liberal-arts-colleges
• Sandwichman on the-narratives-of-higginss-warfare, deep-structures-of-cultural-marxism-myth
• Sarah Kliff on bipartisan-plan-fix-obamacare
• Calculated Risk on the-housing-bottom-and-comparing-housing-recoveries , comments-on-july-housing-starts
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-dont-add-to-the-fire , fed-watch-retail-sales-dudley-wages
• Perry Bacon on charlottesville-and-the-rise-of-white-identity-politics , democrats-have-their-own-challenges-in-talking-about-racial-issues-in-the-trump-era
• Dougal Robinson on far-reaching-implications-isolated-white-house
• Economic Principals on north korea is an economic problem Thanks Mark 
• Tim Duy on fed-shouldnt-view-productivity-as-an-exogenous-factor Thanks Mark
• Dara Lind on trump-charlottesville-blame-antifa
• David Graham on dr-trump-and-mr-donald
• Uri Friedman on trump-china-trade-korea
• Jeffrey Toobin on donald-trump-steve-bannon-and-charlottesville
• run75441 0n woodie-guthrie-racism-trump-and-beach-haven
• Larry Summers on why don't all CEOs quit Trump's advisory councils Thanks Mark
• PIEE on nearly-all-us-trade-deals-were-negotiated-signed-and-implemented-republicans Thanks Mark
• Stephen Rattner on how-donald-trump-is-driving-up-health-insurance-premiums Thanks Mark
• Barkley Rosser on why-is-fed-raising-interest-rates-as-as-fast-as-it-it , on-the-erection-of-confederate-memorials-in-which-i-have-to-get-this-off-my-chest
• Uneasy Money on no-god-did-not-create-all-slave-holders-equal
• Dylan Matthewa on donald-trump-race-priming-political-science
• Clare Malone and Dhrumil Mehta on americans-fear-north-korea-and-dont-trust-trump-to-defuse-the-situation
• Julius Krein on i-voted-for-trump-and-i-sorely-regret-it Thank you Soony
• Kevin Drum on give-it-up-folks-confederate-statues-are-all-about-racism Thanks Brad
• Larry Summers on a-stunning-development-with-more-to-come Thanks Mark
• Ezra Klein on steve-bannon-fired-donald-trump
• Nate Silver on trumps-populism-isnt-popular-but-thats-on-him-not-bannon

Europe

• Mainly Macro on how-did-uk-austerity-mistake-happen
• Sarah Wildman on emmanuel-macron-unpopular
• Mainly Macro on what-does-respecting-referendum-result
• Ben Rich on striking-in-al-andalus-why-islamic-state-attacked-spain

Asia

• Anas Iqtait on saudi-qatar-dispute-new-normal
• Justin Hastings on new-sanctions-have-sparked-china-north-korea-diplomatic-row
• Kate Gilsanan on north-korea-threat
• Rodger Shanahan on riyadh-s-two-step-shia-dance
• Anthony Kleven on malaysia-turns-60-its-economy-stuck-third-gear
• Euan Graham on china-raises-temperature-again-south-china-sea
• John Cheong-Holdaway on indonesia-unorthodox-toll-road-debt

Wonk

• John Quiggin on whats-left-of-libertarianism
• Tim Harford on think-like-a-supermodel-if-you-want-to-win-from-the-gig-economy
• stumbling and mumbling on entrepreneurial-marxism , the-social-mobility-lie , the-behavioural-economics-paradox , job-polarization , centrism-the-problem-not-the-solution
• Nick Rowe on thinking-about-costs-and-benefits-of-immigration
• Stephen Grenville on taxing-global-capital
• The Conversable Economist on misallocation-and-productivit: International- pesrpective , adam-smith-plight-of-impartial-spectator-in-the-times-of faction , autonomous-cars-altering-one-in-nine-jobs , blockchain-new-frontiers
• Roger Farmer on do low interest rates punish savers
• Promarket on rise-market-power-decline-labors-share Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on old-ideas-about-foreign-trade-are-being-retired
• Julianne Schultz on grooming-the-globe-denying-fairness-complexity-and-humanity
• Mohammed A  El-Erian on lost-lessons-of-the-financial-crisis Thanks Mark
• Bank Underground on foreign-owned-firms-and-productivity Thanks Mark
• Notes on Liberty on public-choice-and-market-failure Thanks Mark
• Mainly Macro on japan-and-burden-of-government-debt

General

• Gordon Parker on what-causes-depression-what-we-know-dont-know-and-suspect
• Kim Borg and Bradly Jorgenson on the-truth-about-inconvenient-truths-big-issue-documentaries-dont-always-change-our-behaviour
• Kevin O'Rourke on passions-interests-and-hobbits
• Understanding Society on moral-progress-and-critical-realism Thanks
• Caillan Davenport on  mythbusting-ancient-rome-did-all-roads-actually-lead-there
• Jose Zaraondona and Cesar Torres on from-charlottesville-to-nazi-germany-sometimes-monuments-have-to-fall
• Ali Alizadeh on friday-essay-joan-of-arc-our-one-true-superhero

Climate

• Ken Baldwin on factcheck-qanda-is-coal-still-cheaper-than-renewables-as-an-energy-source
• David Appell on dept-of-wrong-predictions-no-tricks-zone-edition , global-sea-ice-extent-sets-record-low
• Real Climate on observations-reanalyses-and-the-elusive-absolute-global-mean- , temperature , sensible-questions-on-climate-sensitivity , data-rescue-projects
• dana1981 on trump-elected-so-hot-one-in-million
• and Then Theres Physics on science-its-complicated
• moyhu on giss-july-up-015-from-june , temperature-averaging-and-integrtaion
• Robyn Schofield on australia-emits-mercury-at-double-the-global-average
• Greg Laden on spike-in-greenhouse-gasses
• hotwhopper on 2017-has-just-had-hottest-july-on-record
• Arctic sea ice on tuk-toy-what
• Climate lab book on gmst-arctic-changes

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• question-cats-statistics-declawing-cause-harm
• torture-talk-uncontrolled-experiment-still-experiment
• bird-fight
• dont-like-discrete-models-hot-hand-baseball-edition
• the-westlake-review
• social-media-fake-news-2016-election
• also-holding-back-progress-make-mistakes-label-correct-arguments-nonsensical
• just-google-despite-limited-statistical-power
• Junkcharts on speed-demon-quartered-and-shrunk
• Kaiser Fung on did-web-scraping-just-receive-a-legal-boost , gelman-digested-read
• John Tukey on the future of data analysis Thanks Brad
• Flowing Data on useless-points-of-comparison

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• Noah opinion on theory-vs-data-in-statistics-too
• No Hesitations on on-lewbels-assertion , analyzing-terabytes-of-economic-data

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• other-minds
• ft-business-book-longlist
• learning-from-books
• how-diversity-pays-off

Vox wonk

• measuring-how-much-universities-spend-teaching
• financial-globalisation-and-market-volatility
• don-t-blame-global-financial-cycle
• financial-globalisation-and-market-volatility
• why-trump-s-protectionist-trade-agenda-will-fail
• mobility-and-growth-top-and-bottom-incomes
• missing-growth
• lits-survey-decade-measuring-transition
• online-exports-and-wage-gap

Deep Structures of the Cultural Marxism myth

That is the tile of an article by Sandwichman which is easy to digest ( get it!).

Can I suggest you read all the links and Barkley Rosser's comment.

The Blogosphere can be a very educative place.

More on the Citizenship debacle

Graeme Orr assists us all in understanding the current debacle on citizenship ( and pecuniary interest). Here is Richard Ackland
As I said yesterday I think Section 44 of the Constitution should be changed but I find that highly improbable given the history of referendums in Australia.
On a related topic It is clear now the government is in deep decline. The idea of a conspiracy is laughable as it proved yesterday.It shows that the Government's leadership group is either out of touch or bordering on delusional. It also provoked an international incident.
This exacerbates the trend that was shown when Joyce was allowed to continue as Deputy Prime Minister in complete contrast to Canavan.
They are fast becoming a shambles. Having Turnbull doing Abbott impressions is not a good look. Abbott was an embarrassment. Turnbull could become so as well if he keeps this up.

One more thing. Even if you do not like Tony Burke, and I do not like him, he is super impressive in Parliament.

Fancy the Greens having more integrity than other parties

I would have never thought the Greens of all parties would have more integrity than other parties but in the recent furore concerning dual citizenship they have shown this is the case.
Both Green Senators immediately resigned when they realised they were dual citizens as they should have.
HOWEVER the other three 'clowns' have been shown up as people without any scruples at all. Obfuscation, dissembling, lying  and outright hypocrisy have been to the fore.

If one wishes to be a politician then in most parties you are told to examine whether you hold dual citizenship or not. If you are born in another country or either of your parents have been then you clearly should make some enquiries.
Clearly in three cases this was not done. (I might add the very idea of one's  mother getting you citizenship and not telling you is a woeful excuse!)

The Government is being shown up for sheer hypocrites. After essentially sneering at the Greens when it occurred to their two senators and saying it was correct they resign. They then said Canavan only needed to resign from the Ministry and not vote in the Senate BUT somehow this does not apply to Joyce! Huh?
If the Government has legal advice that shows Joyce position is legal then that advice should be made public.

Yes this part of the Constitution is silly however changing it is very problematic and ensuring you are eligible to be a candidate is not that hard.

Migration and Terror

This is the title of a very good article by messrs  Dreher, Gassebner and Schaudt ( who looks somewhat like Kenneth Branagh.)

Let me take their entire summary which says 'Stricter immigration and visa policies are a common reaction to terrorist attacks. This column uses historical data from 20 OECD countries to show that while the number of terror attacks increased with the number of foreigners living in a host country, migrants were not more likely to become terrorists than the locals of the country in which they were living. The results also show that bans on Muslim immigration would be more likely to increase the risk of terror than make the domestic population safer.'

Not just very good but essential reading

Around the Traps 11/8/17

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie.Oy,Oy,Oy

• Michael Brown on another-attack-on-the-bureau-but-top-politicians-have-stopped-listening-to-climate-change-denial
• Roger Shanahan on some-lessons-foiled-sydney-terror-plot
• Ross Gittins on higher-employment-our-payoff-for-avoiding-recession , why-electricity-prices-are-high-and-going-higher , the-way-wages-are-set-is-changing
• Caron Beaton-Wells on cartel-case-shows-not-all-corporate-misbehaviour-goes-unpunished
• Greg Jericho on why-economic-anxiety-doesnt-explain-one-nation-and-the-far-rights-return
• Troy Barry and Ishita Chetterjee on the-nbn-needs-subsidies-if-we-all-want-to-benefit-from-it
• Roy Hay on grumbles-over-governance-threaten-to-disrupt-footballs-growth-in-australia
• Sangeetha Pillai on explainer-how-do-australias-proposed-citizenship-laws-compare-internationally
• Elizabeth Sheedy and Le Zhang on why-bankers-so-often-fail-to-comply-with-policies-and-regulations
• Croaking Cassandra on reading-a-nz-economist-supporting-large-scale-immigration , consistent-to-the-end-sadly , consistent-to-the-end-sadly , three-governors-and-monetary-policy , lvrs-interest-rates-and-so-on
• John Quiggin on alternatives-to-adani-2
• David Blowers on new-rules-for-retailers-but-dont-sit-there-waiting-for-your-electricity-bill-to-go-down
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-that-feeling-you-get-when-the-economy-cant-be-explained-by-economic-models
• Paul Kildea on using-the-abs-to-conduct-a-same-sex-marriage-poll-is-legally-shaky-and-lacks-legitimacy
• The kouk on rba-all-talk-and-no-action

Northern America

• Macromania on a-monetary-fiscal-theory-of-inflation
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-july-employment-recap , fed-watch-multiple-jobholders-are-not-a-weak-spot-in-the-employment-report
• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on whats-next-for-progressives
• Calculated Risk on prime-working-age-population-near-2007-peak, key-measures-show-inflation-mostly-below-2%-in-July
• Kruggers on how-bad-will-it-be-if-we-hit-the-debt-ceiling
• Carola Binder on labor-market-conditions-index-discontinued
• Menzie Chinn on whatthe-problem-with-low-inflation, asset-prices-and-economic-policy-uncertainty-post-election, whats-the-dead-weight-loss-of-a-consumption-tax-when-externalities-are-present
• Brad De Long on must-read-is-audit-the-fed-like-creating-the-cbo-or-like-trying-to-destroy-the-cbo-does-the-federal-reserve-need-more
• Crispin Rovere on what-trump-has-done-right
• Regulatory Review on wong-occupational-licenses-prison-poverty Thanks Mark
• The Conversable economist on the-us-fiscal-outlook

Europe

• Long and Variable on brexit-connundrum-is-not-incompetence
• Johnathan Portes on brexit-opinions-remain-brexiteer-bull-bs-leave-eu-new-york-times-jenni-russell-daniel-hannan Thanks Brad
• Daniel Woker on the-problem-of-channelling-churchill
• Bank Underground on your-country-needs-funds-the-extraordinary-story-of-britains-early-efforts-to-finance-the-first-world-war Thanks Mark
• Economic Principals on Politics V Commerce in russia Thanks Mark
• Keith Walsh on analysis-of-low-pay-sectors
• Barry Eichengreen on economists-right-about-brexit-impact Thanks Mark

Asia

• Vivienne Chow on when-border-not-border-hong-kong
• Lindsay Maizland on israel-al-jazeera-ban-journalists
• Yasmeen Serhan on the-countries-closing-ranks-on-al-jazeera
• Greg Earl on abenomics-loses-some-its-razzle-dazzle
• Pal Nyiri on contradictory-world-chinese-journalism
• Sam Roggeveen on north-korea
• Greg Wright on china-is-the-key-to-avoiding-nuclear-fire-and-fury-in-north-korea
• Virginie Grzelczk on trumps-threat-of-fire-and-fury-is-a-gift-to-north-koreas-propaganda-machine
• Genevieve  Hohen on fire-and-fury-trumps-impulsive-rhetoric-on-north-korea-threatens-the-region
• Chatiege Bajpaee on growing-extremism-source-strategic-instability-asia
• Zeeshan Aleem and Alex Ward on north-korea-guam-trump
• Sean Illing on china-north-korea-donald-trump-xi-jinping-kim-jong-un
• Robin Wright on the-way-out-of-trumps-ad-lib-war-with-north-korea
• Stephen Casey on korea-trump-nuclear-bluster-has-just-one-precedent

Wonk

• Mainly Macro on the-medias-influence , real-wages-are-mainly-macro-issue , the-politics-of-lying
• Stumbling and Mumbling on choice-in-economics, my-socialism, entrepreneurial-marxism
• Nick Rowe on upward-sloping-demand-curves-for-labour-and-housing
• Roger Farmer on the marriage of psychology and multiple equilibria in economics 
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on looking-back-the-financial-crisis-began-10-years-ago-this-week Thanks Mark
• The Conversable economist on negative-interest-rates-evidence-and-practicalities , william-playfair-inventor-of-bar-graph-line-graph-and-pie-chart , nafta-in-multipolar-world-economy
• Narayana Kocherlakota on maybe-central-banks-are-too-independent Thanks Mark
• Brad De Long on anti-globalization-socialism-of-fools, should-read-a-well-argued-smackdown-from-the-smart-dean-baker-dean-baker-opposition-to-trade-deals-brad-delong
• Coppolla comment on a-maths-lesson-for-journalists
• Benjamin Friedman on the-search-for-new-assumptions Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on markets-don-t-work-for-everything
• Roger Farmer on what-is-keynesian-search-theory

General

• Understanding Society on the-guardian-drops-ball, time-for-critical-realist-epistemology
• The Conversable economist on fighting-colony-collapse-disorder-how-the-beekeepers-make-more-bees
• Tim Harford on fantasy-gaming-can-be-better-than-reality
• Christofer Clemente and Peter Bishop on when-dinosaurs-walked-the-earth-they-moved-like-modern-birds
• Tamara Davis on what-a-new-map-of-the-universe-tells-us-about-dark-matter

Climate

• Arctic Sea Ice on piomas-august-2017
• moyhu on july-global-surface-temperature-up-011
• and Then Theres Physics on no-pressure-alone-does-not-define-surface-temperatures , kevin-anderson-how-numbers-reveal-another-reality
• Peter Sinclair on ag-department-you-cant-say-climate-change
• Jon Christensen on climate-gloom-and-doom-bring-it-on-but-we-need-stories-about-taking-action-too

Andrew Gelman (mainly statistics)

• this finding did not reach statistical significance
• wolfram-on-golomb
• what readings should be included
• irwin-shaw-john-updike-others
• lack of openess
• bigshot-statistician-keeps-publishing-papers-errors-anything-can-get-stop
• consider-seniority-authors-criticizing-published-work
• statschat on millennials-and-their-pink-wine
• Eran Raviv on visualizing-tail-risk
• John Cook on random-walk-on-quaternions
• Kaiser Fung on a-call-for-less-automation-more-transparency-in-digital-advertising
• Junk Charts on starstruck-and-doubled-over-losing-poise-over-indian-charts

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• No Hesitations on commodity-connectedness
• Econometric Sense on confidence-intervals-fad-or-fashion
• Eviews on dumitrescu-hurlin-panel-granger-causility-tests

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• summer-frivolity
• its-political-correctness-gone-profitable
• must-read

Vox Wonk

• globalisation-and-us-labour-markets
• post-crisis-regulation-and-ceo-bonuses 
• job-related-mobility-and-plant-performance-sweden
• investing-roads-versus-schools
• portfolio-rebalancing-effects-ecbs-asset-purchase-programme
• trilemma-redux-evidence-emerging-market-economies
• what-economists-study-guide-curious
• migration-and-terror