Around the Traps 30/10/15

It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on fallow-the-case-for-a-lower-ocr-is-compelling, who-speaks-for-the-35000-unnecessarily-out-of-work, treasury-on-investor-finance-restrictions
• Peter Martin on mortgage-rates-big-four-think-theyll-get-away-with-it
• Mark the Ballot on poll-update
• Andrew Elder on the-nostalgia-act
• Greg Jericho on how-much-does-australia-really-subsidise-overseas-films-and-is-it-worth-it , union-membership-figures-plunge-and-thats-the-good-news
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-newspoll-smells-coffee
• The Kouk on we-re-almost-certainly-a-million-miles-away-from-a-house-price-collapse , lay-off-the-banks-they-re-entitled-to-hike-rates , why-australia-s-low-inflation-is-a-game-changer , rate-expectations-what-is-priced-into-the-interest-rate-futures-market
• Ross Gittins on to-be-great-turnbull-must-govern-for-the-other-side , we-need-more-agile-thinking-about-reform
• Michelle Grattan on amnesty-alleges-criminal-activity-in-border-force
• Amy Maguire on amnesty-accuses-australia-of-violating-international-law-but-any-prosecutions-are-unlikely
• Rodney Maddock on what-fair-superannuation-would-look-like
• Sam Roggeveen on Abbott-speech-Can-Europe-learn-from-Australias-people-smuggling-policy
• John Rice and Nigel Martin on the-aldification-of-woolworths-is-destroying-its-value
• David Karoly and Mitchell White on its-been-australias-hottest-ever-october-and-thats-no-coincidence
• Steve Georgakis on four-reasons-rugby-union-in-australia-is-struggling-despite-the-wallabies-success
• James Goldrick on Why-Australia-must-send-in-its-navy-and-assert-freedom-to-operate-in-the-South-China-Sea

Northern America

• Calculated Risk on comments-on-september-new-home-sales , real-prices-and-price-to-rent-ratio-in-August
• Barkley Rosser on libya-and-hillary-select-committee
• Timothy Taylor on how-tight-is-us-labor-market
• Simon Wren-Lewis on keynes-never-left-canada-and-intends-to-stay
• Kruggers on delusions-of-failure Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on check-out-our-low-low-natural-rates
• Nick Rowe on one-awkward-question-about-stephen-polozs-speech
• Robert Waldmann on in-which-i-disagree-with-paul-krugman-and-brad-delong
• Nick Bunker on a-kink-in-the-phillips-curve  Thanks Brad
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-december-still-very-much-a-live-meeting
• Brad De Long on bernanke-memoir-monetary-policy-lessons

Europe

• Tony Yates on mark-carneys-intervention-on-the-eu-exit-decision
• Chris Dillow on osborne-the-katie-hopkins-chancellor , two-blairs-or-one, tax-credits-journalists-failure
• Simon Wren-Lewis on what-are-abc-to-do , the-accidental-tax-credit-cuts , is-sterling-overvalued
• Daniel Woker on Which-way-for-Erdogan-Much-at-stake-in-Turkeys-repeat-election
• Peter Oborne on we-dont-need-to-wait-for-chilcot-we-were-lied-to-heres-evidence

Asia

• Noah Smith on how-china-got-rich
• Tony Yates on krugman-on-japan
• Brendan Thomas-Noone on New-capabilities-for-PLA.
• Euan Graham on US-Launches-FoNOPS-in-the-South-China-Sea-Better-Late-than-Never
• Croaking Cassandra on chinas-fertility-rate-in-an-asian-perspective

Wonk

• Roger Farmer on demand-creates-its-own-supply
• Tony Yates on the-phillips-splatter
• Timothy Taylor on greater-inequality-of-returns-across-us , how-raising-top-tax-rate-wont-much-alter-inequality , the-trade-facilitation-agenda
• Chris Dillow on marxs-relevance-today , on-expressive-rationality
• Noah Smith on how-nations-can-avoid-the-financial-resource-curse
• Paul Romer on where-has-all-the-excludability-gone Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on how-are-emerging-markets-responding-to-anticipated-us-tightening
• Tim Harford on the-real-benefits-of-migration
• Edward Lambert on neo-fisher-reflections
• Nick Rowe on old-keynesian-vs-new-keynesian-fiscal-policy
• Invisible hand waving on assumptions-milton-friedman-and-wise-trees Thanks Mark

General

• Bernard Stewart on not-everything-gives-you-cancer-but-eating-too-much-processed-meat-certainly-can
• Tess Hardy on franchising-all-care-and-no-responsibility
• Merlin Thomas on spring-has-sprung-how-changes-in-weather-affect-our-health
• Lord Keynes on the-consequences-of-postmodernism-truth

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on i-know-what-i-know-if-you-know-what-i-mean, climate-change-is-real-and-important
• Kevin Drum on great-1998-chart-swindle-now-officially-over  Thanks Brad
• moyhu on hansens-1988-predictions-revisited
• Kathleen Maclay on study-finds-climate-change-will-reshape-global-economy  Thanks Brad
• Science of Doom on renewables-xiv-minimized-cost-of-99-9-renewable-study
• Critical angle on new-study-global-warming-will-hit-economies-and-equality-more-than-we-thought
• Steve from Brisbane on cod-dont-care-for-warmer-water

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)

• modern-physics-from-an-elementary-point-of-view
• super-topical-nba-post
• characterizing-the-spatial-structure-of-defensive-skill-in-professional-basketball
• the-original-hot-hand-preprint
• Mark Thoma on new-method-to-solve-significant-variables-prediction-conundrum
• Kaiser Fung on theranos-and-ethics

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• No Hesitations on the-hac-emperor-has-no-clothes
• Marc Bellemare on fads and fashions in econometrics

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• thinking-learning-and-doing , finance-made-funny

Vox wonk

• enduring-structure-federal-reserve-system-it-time-redraw-map
• on-the-greatness-of-the-great-moderation
• entrepreneurship-conflict-and-growth-evidence-afghanistan
• contribution-wage-structure-early-retirement-behaviour
• selected-takeaways-ecb-s-sintra-forum-inflation-and-unemployment-europe

Stagflation is occurring!

The ABS released the CPI for the September quarter yesterday.
The underlying rate was a measly 0.3%. This is despite the $A falling quite a bit.


Stagflation is rising rapidly obviously

Red Meat and Cancer

Recently the World Health Organisation came out with a warning on red meat and cancer.

 Helpfully Bernard Stewart writing on the Conversation (a must read site) tells us what is important and what it means.
Greg Laden is also helpful. So is Kaiser Fung

Canada likes Keynes

Kruggers wrote a column some time ago saying Keynes returns to Canada.

Nick Rowe wrote after that he never left Canada,Simon Wren-Lewis joins in and essentially agrees with Nick as do I.
( Nick links Kruggers and Simon links Nick)

This is why I always ignore Governments who talk the talk I always look at how they walk the walk.

Comments on Nick's article well worth reading.

Joe Hockey was a failure

Joe Hockey made his last speech yesterday.
He was a total failure. I can recall as a Minister despite having excellent staff when Minister for Financial Services he was never on top of the detail.

When Opposition Treasury spokesman he wailed against the entitlement mentality overseas but when he got back home he said the ALP Government's attempt to have sterner means test on family benefits was class warfare.

As an incoming treasurer he claimed he inherited a deficit and debt disaster. He never did say how PEFO was wrong or claimed the Secretaries of Treasury and Finance has lied .

The fact that both the deficit and debt has increased shows what a total failure Hockey was.
If you say quite accurately the terms of trade made this a certainty I would agree however Hockey in Opposition would not hear of this when Wayne Swan made the argument so it is only fair not to allow Hockey this excuse.

Here is Greg Jericho

Around the Traps 23/10/15

It is time again for Around the Traps.
Very busy over the weekend but will try and update. Interesting stuff in General!

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Martin on the-bubble-is-shrinking, Westpac-and-the-commonwealth-bank-protect-their-mortgage-profits-no-matter-what
• Sam Roggeveen on The-complete-2015-Boyer-Lectures-by-Michael-Fullilove , QA-Boyer-Lectures-Are-Australians-ambitious-for-their-country
• Peter Briggs on Submarines-Build-them-here-and-build-12
• Francis Markham and Martin Young on 15-things-you-should-know-about-australias-love-affair-with-pokies
• Croaking Cassandra on fiscal-policy-a-response-to-some-comments , if-only-economic-performance-matched-the-rugby, the-treasury-on-reserve-bank-governance
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-wealth-attack-on-pm-fails
• Ross Gittins on banks-ponder-their-next-game-with-interest
• Greg Jericho on today-the-great-australian-dream-is-owning-a-home-loan-or-two , hockey-the-fantasy-economist-may-as-well-have-farewelled-middle-earth
• Tim Harcourt on as-treasurer-hockey-proved-to-be-an-ordinary-joe
• Adam Lucas on the-long-term-future-of-australian-coal-is-drying-up
• Daniel Baldino on the-security-benefits-of-warrantless-surveillance-are-as-clear-as-mud
• Scepticlawyer on bloody-scandinavian-model-yet-again

Northern America

• David Beckworth on a-plea-to-my-fellow-free-marketers, no-fed-did-not-enable-large-budget-you-did
• Timothy Taylor on exonerating-henry-ellsworth-and-charles-duell, greater-inequality-of-returns-across-us-firms
• Scepticlawyer on nowadays-the-presence-of-white-americans-is-generally-good-for-african-americans
• Julie Hotchkiss on should-we-be-concerned-about-declines-in-labor-force-growth
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-september-housing-starts , payroll-employment-and-unemployment-claims, a-few-random-comments-on-september-existing-home-sales
• Eduardo Porter on the-myth-of-welfares-corrupting-influence-on-the-poor Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on assessing-the-counter-cyclical-macro-policies-of-the-great-recession
• Stephen Gordon on how much revenue will the Liberals gain

Europe

• Zeynep Gambetti on ankara-war-on-peace
• Simon Wren-Lewis on employment-and-category-errors , linking-tax-credits-and-fiscal-charter
• Kevin O'Rourke on a-dangerous-union-for-small-countries
• Tony Yates on john-mcdonnells-boe-mandate-review
• Simon Tilford on gain-or-more-pain-spain  Thanks Mark
• Kevin O'Rourke on philip-lane-named-new-central-bank-governor
• Chris Dillow on steel-austerity-denial, tax-credits-the-bubbles-failures
• Liz Cooper on spains-traditional-parties-past-their-sell-by-date
• Francesco Saraceno on the-end-of-german-hegemony-really Thanks Mark

Asia

• Arshin Adib-Moghaddam on arabs-vs-persians-sunni-vs-shia-hatred-vs-reality
• Stephen Grenville on Asian-economies-to-be-bruised-not-battered-by-capital-flows
• Geoffrey Hodgson on six-reasons-why-chinas-economy-is-weaker-than-you-think
• Brendan Gogarty on japans-whaling-gambit-shows-its-time-to-strengthen-the-rule-of-science-in-law
• Leanne Piggot on Israel-Palestine-Why-has-violence-spiked-now
• Mark Thoma on official-statistics-understate-chinese-unemployment-rate
• J Michael Cole on China-needs-to-learn-Taiwanese-people-cant-be-bought
• Anton Cheremukin on Long view of China suggests inevitable slowdown Thanks Mark

Wonk

• Paul Romer on speeding-up-and-missed-opportunities-evidence , speeding-up-theory  Thanks Mark
• Nick Rowe on countries-as-clubs-open-borders-and-debtgdp-ratios, two-types-of-liquidity-shortage, negative-interest-vacuum-cleaner-gesellian-money-for-broke-central-banks
• Brad De Long on monday-smackdown-watch-paul-krugman-admonishes-me-on-my-making-out-of-milton-friedman-a-paper-money-calf
• Noah Smith on econ-critique-scorecard , low-interest-rates-are-here-to-stay
• Timothy Taylor on when-high-gdp-no-longer-means-high-per-capita-gdp , the-shifting-world-distribution-of-world-income
• Fergus Hanson on Waging-war-in-peacetime-Cyber-attacks-and-international-norms
• David Glasner on keynes-and-accounting-identities , keynes-on-the-theory-of-interest
• Gadi Barlevy on Bubbles and fools Thanks Mark
• Kruggers on rethinking-japan
• Tony Yates on krugman-on-japan
• Simon Wren-Lewis on central-bankers-and-their-irrational-fear
• Tim Harford on development-needed-just-give-cash
• Menzie Chinn on collapse-and-revival-understanding-global-recessions-and-recoveries
• Simon Wren-Lewis on the-last-7-years-are-argument-against-inflation-targeting
• Roger Farmer on a-bridge-too-far
• Chris Dillow on markets-need-marxism
• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on keynes-comes-to-canada

General

• Nick Haslam on anxious-conservative-or-easygoing-rebel-busting-the-birth-order-myths
• Serje Robidoux on seven-myths-about-dyslexia-put-to-rest
• Copolla Comment on generosity, all-your-cars-are-belong-us

Climate

• David Appell on proof-that-australia-is-heating-up, global-warming-productivity-loss-and-economic-loss
• Greg Laden on september-was-warm-2015-is-warm, honey-we-broke-the-global-warming-graph-again
• Moyhu on how-well-do-temperature-indices-agree, new-integration-methods-for-global-temperature
• Tamino on hot-heat , honey-i-broke-the-graph, 2015-a-very-bad-year-for-the-global-warming-policy-foundation
• and Then Theres Physics on the-good-the-bad-and-the-risky, drawing-down-atmospheric-co2-part-3, clarity-of-meaning
• Jeff Masters on September 2015 hottest month ever
• Steve from Brisbane on another-go-at-economics-of-climate
• Science of doom on renewables-xiv-minimized-cost-of-99-9-renewable-study
• Howard Lee on co2-higher-ordovician-intermediate-rebuttal
• Brad Plumer on climate-change-ambitious-cuts Thanks Brad
• Rob Honeycutt on tracking the 2 C limit

Andrew Gelman ( Mostly Stats)

• explaining-to-gilovich-about-the-hot-hand
• ta-nehisi-coates-david-brooks-and-the-street-code-of-journalism
• its-all-about-the-denominator-and-rajiv-sethi-and-sendhil-mullainathan-in-a-statistical-debate-on-racial-bias-in-police-killings
• whats-the-probability-that-daniel-murphy-hits-a-home-run-tonight
• the-answer-to-my-previous-question
• 3 reasons you can't always use predictive performance to choose amongst models
• don-draper-does-medical-research
• Kaiser Fung on statbusters-simple-computations-mislead , the-analytics-talent-gap-a-hiring-managers-perspective

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• nuttin, not happy Dave
• new-forecasting-blog  I loike despite it being Canada centric

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• whats-new-about-nudges , standards-interoperability-and-innnovation-in-infrastructure , the-enlightened-economist-prize-2015-the-long-list
• Sebastian Sharp on hop-aboard-patti-smiths-m-train-a-memoir-on-the-right-side-of-the-tracks 

Vox Wonk

• foreign-aid-and-growth-new-evidence
• impact-taxes-use-deferred-executive-compensation
• labour-versus-leisure-preferences-and-employment-europe
• macro-micro-conflict
• poor-earning-power-japanese-firms
• voxeu-columns-philip-lane-irish-central-bank-governor-be
• shedding-some-light-dark-matter-trade-costs-services
• using-world-bank-doing-business-ranking-inform-economic-reforms-japan
• does-europe-s-trade-policy-solar-panels-shine-right-firms
• union-power-and-inequality
• do-poor-countries-really-need-more-it
• angus-deaton-nobel-laureate
• ecb-s-quantitative-easing-programme
• causes-and-consequences-persistently-low-interest-rates
• relational-contracts-and-supplier-turnover-global-economy

Turnbull thus far

Malcolm Turnbull is sailing with a wet sail thus far.

He has been helped by very poor ALP tactics courtesy of the right wing faction of the NSW ALP.

People also personally like Turnbull just like they didn't like Abbott.
However it seems to me they are waiting for him to change tack now he is Prime Minister. He could get caught between what the voters expect and what the right wing of the Liberal party politicians want.
We shall see.


It is funny to hear about various 'right wing' types frothing at the mouth at Turnbull.

What has really irked them is they are now seen to be wearing no clothes.
They claimed to be speaking for the majority of people. Now they have been shown to be people who speak for no-one so they are raging.

Andrew Bolt has been shown to write articles without doing any research at all. always remember those people could have sued for libel and gotten money but didn't.

Alan Jones took money from companies and didn't disclose it.

Any other persons who did work like these two would have been sacked. Not these two. Amazing.

Update.
 Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-wealth-attack-on-pm-fails

Infrastructure

Timothy Taylor has a great blog. He writes on a variety of topics in economics.

On Friday's Around the Traps he wrote about Infrastructure.
It is , as usual, a very interesting read.

He concluding thoughts are:

1) You need to have a detailed plan of projects that really are shovel-ready, like the federal highways in the 1950s. Otherwise, it's just too slow to get such project underway when a recession hits. Perhaps the ideal approach is to have a long-term project happening on an ongoing basis, with the possibility for speeding it up if a recession hits.

2) Government is often focused on the infrastructure that it owns directly: like roads, bridges, and sewer lines. These areas matter, of course. But the future of the US economy will rely on a lot of other kinds of infrastructure, many of which are either privately owned or are some form of public-private partnership: including phone and cable lines, electricity generation and transmission, pipelines for oil and gas, railroad tracks, airport and seaport capacity, and water reservoirs and pipes. A broader focus on infrastructure would think about ongoing efforts to build infrastructure in these areas, and how some form of government support might accelerate them during a recession, too.

3) Pretty much everyone favors infrastructure in theory, but in practice, there are often some hard issues to work out. How does one focus on infrastructure that has the largest payoff, rather than just spreading out the spending to favored state and congressional districts, or contracts to favored political interests? How does one make sure the best deals get negotiated for the use of taxpayer support? Many kinds of infrastructure involve a mixture of user payments and taxpayer money, and how should those user payments be structured? Finally, how do we balance the need to give opponents of infrastructure projects a fair hearing, but also not give opponents an unfettered ability to use "lawfare" to block infrastructure projects?

Interesting.
I remember when I criticised the initial stimulus here because we should have been spending on a dual carriage way from Melbourne to Brisbane.
I learnt two things.
Sinclair Davidson had no idea of how important trucks were in transportation in Australia.
There were NO shovel ready projects to go. Indeed I learnt only Sweden had shovel ready projects to go in all OECD nations.

I am hoping Nations have learnt their lesson now. given howl ow bond yields are and how little infrastructure projects are underway It appears not.

Around the Traps 16/10/15

It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Steve from Brisbane on bald-paranoia
• Ken Parish on the-elephant-in-the-room-for-nt-statehood
• Ross Gittins on competition-does-have-its-drawbacks
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-turnbull-popular-size-of-lead-less-clear
• Ken Neilsen on pass-the-popcorn
• Peter Lloyd on patching-the-flaws-around-chaftas-labour-provisions
• Mark the Graph on housing-finance-statistics-current
• Mark the Ballot on poll-aggregation
• Croaking Cassandra on the-raft-of-the-medusa-and-new-zealand-monetary-policy , the-board-reports-and-says-almost-nothing, on-macroeconomic-policy-options
• Greg Jericho on no-australia-isnt-a-land-of-moochers-and-yes-the-gst-is-a-regressive-tax , westpac-to-pass-on-cost-of-regulation-to-customers-despite-profit-increase
• The Kouk on dear-scott-morrison-stop-waffling-and-learn-to-master-your-brief-quickly

Northern America

• David Beckworth on the-courage-to-act-in-2008
• Douglass Elmendorf on a-fairer-approach-to-fiscal-reform
• Brad De Long on fed ?!?!, monday-delong-smackdown-kevin-drum
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-fed-struggles-with-the-high-water-mark, fed-watch-brainard-drops-a-policy-bomb
• Antony Green on canadian-election-background
• Calculated Risk on cbo-fiscal-2015-budget-deficit-decline-to-2.4%-of-GDP
• Vasco Curdia on gradual-return-to-normal-natural-rate-of-interest  Thanks Mark
• Noah Smith on relax-we-ll-survive-china-s-sales-of-u-s-debt
• Cleveland Fed on labor-market-during-after-great-recession Thanks Mark
• San Francisco Fed on current outlook and future
• Corey Robin on youve-changed-youre-not-the-angel-i-once-knew-david-brooks-on-the-gop
• Noah Smith on state-price-indices-get-em-while-theyre

Europe

• Julian De Medeiros on as-ankara-death-toll-rises-anger-mounts-against-government-for-courting-disaster
• Umut Ozkirimli on ankara-bombing-and-end-of-turkish-republic
• Timothy Taylor on the-eurozone-crisis-crystalizing-the-narrative
• Simon Wren-Lewis on howes-that, when-economists-play-political-games , the-fiscal-charter-media-fiasco, how-television-fails-in-its-duty-to-inform
• Chris Dillow on against-the-fiscal-charter , more-than-keynesianism
• Tony Yates on why-the-fiscal-charter-is-not-right , jeremy-warner-on-the-charter-and-sanctions
• Barry Eichengreen on border-controls-hurt-eu Thanks Mark
• JP Koning on are-prices-getting-less-sticky Thanks Mark
• Francesco Saraseno on fed-debates-and-the-emu-technocratic-illusion Thanks Mark

Asia

• Jeffrey Frankel on why-support-tpp Thanks Brad
• Roger Shanahan on We-should-bomb-Syria-because-(part-2)
• Mathew Del Santo on On-Syria-the-West-must-face-facts-Russia-can-help
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-migration-free-trade-and-china-in-history

Wonk

• Noah Smith on lazy-econ-critiques , seeking-science-in-a-social-science-like-economics
• David Warsh on this time there was no Keynes  Thanks Mark
• John Quiggin on tanstaafl-and-advertising, thinking-the-unthinkable
• Edward Lambert on more-code-break-ed , economy-flooded
• Simon Wren-Lewis on one-reason-why-monetary-policy-is-preferred-by-New Keynesians , a-stimulus-junkies-lament
• Roger Farmer on give-me-one-armed-economist
• Copolla coment on the-dangers-of-historical-taboos
• Chris Dillow on on-forecasting-recession , thoughts-on-the-human-cloud, conning-the-working-class , technical-change-as-collective-action-problem
• Peter Dorman on litany-of-tainted-research
• Timothy Taylor on unpaid-care-work-women-and-gdp , thoughts-on-shovel-ready-infrastructure, when-global-demand-shifts-cars-and-movies
• David Glasner on representative-agents-homunculi-and-faith-based-macroeconomics
• David Beckworth on peoples-qe-has-been-tried-before-and-failed
• Nick Rowe on fiscal-offset-of-silly-qe
• James Hamilton on economic-effects-of-shocks-to-oil-supply-and-demand
• David Glasner on bernankes-continuing-confusion-about-how-monetary-policy-works
• Antonio Fatas on gdp-growth-is-not-exogenous
• Alan Blinder and Mark Zandi on dont-look-back-in-anger-at-bailouts-and-stimulus Thanks Mark
• Tony Yates on steve-williamsons-scepticism-about-empirical-and-saltwater-macro

General

• Chris Blattman on why-angus-deaton-deserved-the-nobel-prize-in-economics Thanks Brad 
• Timothy Taylor on the-2015-nobel-prize-angus-deaton
• Tim Harford on should-we-trust-the-young-turkers
• Chris Dillow on believing-others
• Christopher Davey on youve-been-diagnosed-with-depression-now-what

Climate

• BOM on /when-the-indian-ocean-and-el-nino-join-forces-things-can-get-hot-and-dry
• David Appell on antarctic-sea-ice-max-declines-by-record-amount, bad-book-reviews-versus-some-actual-science
• Tamino on co2-increase
• Moyhu on analysis-of-october-spike-in-ncepncar , giss-september-steady-at-081
• Hotwhopper on watching-global-thermometer-year-to-date
• Greg Laden on global-warming-update-for-september-2015
• Steve from Brisbane on yet-more-el-nino-discussion
• and Then There's Physics on show-me-slowly-what-i-only-know-the-limits-of , drawing-down-atmospheric-co2-part-2
• Artic Sea ice blog on piomas-october-2015
• Richard Telford on you-cannot-smooth-your-way-to-significance

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly stats)

• new-competition-pick-a-title-for-niall-fergusons-next-book
• mars-missions-are-a-scam
• what-do-you-learn-from-p-05-this-example-from-carl-morris-will-blow-your-mind
• hierarchical-logistic-regression-is-easy-in-stan
• in-answer-to-coynes-question-no-i-cant-make-sense-of-this-diagram
• Noah Smith on in-miso-soup

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• lies-damned-lies-cointegration
• angus-deaton-consumer-demand-nobel-prize
• No Hesitations on on-confidence-intervals-too-wide-to-be-useful 

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• slightly-scary-ai , sharks-and-economists, being-modest-about-economics, thinking-and-writing, technology-paradoxes
• Stephen Grenville on Courage-to-Act-What-Bernanke-saw-at-the-global-financial-crisis
• Geoffrey Robinson on review-faction-man-bill-shortens-path-to-power
• Croaking Cassandra on some-thoughts-on-bernankes-book
• Carola Binder on desire-to-serve-ability-to-perform-and-courage-to-act

Vox wonk

• intangibles-and-productivity-growth-evidence-japan-and-korea
• missing-unmarried-women
• profitability-early-coinage
• climate-policy-prices-versus-equity
• financial-resource-curse
• search-for-yield
• distorted-financial-advice
• inflation-targeting-and-expectations
• cross-border-movement-persons-stimulates-trade
• macro-diversification-through-trade
• explaining-recent-declines-labour-s-share-us-income
• love-conquers-all-nicotine
• services-trade-liberalisation-and-institutions
• quest-robust-and-synchronised-growth

ALP attack on Turnbull falls flat

The ALP tried to make hay about Malcolm Turnbull having money in funds which have their headquarters in the Cayman Islands.
Lenore Taylor tells all.

This attack was originated by Sam Dastyari a highly unimpressive man. Factional warlords rarely make good politicians as Graham Richardson showed. ( Nor do they make good analysts of politics).

We can come to only two conclusions

Either the ALP did not know about the subject they were talking about or they simply wanted it to appear Turnbull didn't pay tax merely because the funds he uses are in tax dodge territory.
Of course thus was untrue.

I would have thought Dastyari's role in bringing down Rudd on untrue polling would rule him out nut no. All of his political career in Canberra thus far has been to be euphemistic unimpressive.
He is now on the front bench. Why? Given his history one hopes Mr Shorten  does rely on him for advice or strategy. Yesterday clearly showed why!

Polling update

What a difference a new leader makes or does it???
Mark the Ballot on the numbers.
The inimitable Kevin Bonham on what it means if it does mean anything. Not yet I think is the summary.

Unemployment in the USA during the Great Depression

Eric Rauchway had a great article on this. on how unemployment was measured differently to how it was in Germany for example.
Now I am late on this but it makes for interesting reading.
If only Gerry Jackson was in good health it would make for a great debate.

It further backs up my theory that if Roosevelt had a policy of real wage reductions as advocated by Keynes ( inflation illusion) then the US recovery would have  been comparable to Germany's recovery.

What is a terrorist?

I had a good friend over on Sunday and we talked about both the Lindt office and Parramatta killings.

I was asked whether they were terrorist acts.

I said no.  Why?

A terrorist act involves many murders which invokes terror on  the population. this in turn invokes a behavioural change .

Let me illustrate with an example.

Way back in the late 1940s. Jewish terrorist groups such a Irgun and the Stern gang et all massacred Palestinians in Palestine.
It was done on such a scale and with such violence that tens of thousands of Palestinians simply left their homes and possessions fearing for their very lives.  ( Hamas could only dream on doing such things).

Now let us think of the Lindt and Parramatta killings. Did they invoke terror at all? Did they invoke any behavioural change at all?

They were not terrorist attacks simply murders by deranged people.

Around the Traps 9/10/15

It is time for Around the Traps again.


Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Charles Livingstone on whatever-the-truth-of-garretts-story-its-about-gambling-industry-politics-and-influence
• Leon Berkelmans on TPP-Not-worth-the-risk
• Brendan Thomas Noone on Radicalisation-lone-wolves-and-terrorism-An-Interpreter-backgrounder
• The Kouk on why-australia-is-not-recession-bound
• Leith Campbell and Sascha Suesspeck on how-the-nbn-could-boost-australias-gdp-by
• Ross Gittins on how-digital-disruption-allows-higher
• Mark the Ballot on taking-honeymoon-to-new-level
• Greg Jericho on the-word-reform-should-be-banished-from-the-economic-summit , shares-go-up-and-down-but-theres-a-bigger-problem-than-market-volatility , imfs-call-for-tax-increases-will-be-a-tough-sell-for-turnbull-and-morrison
• Bridie Jabour on parramatta-shooting-speculation-is-plentiful-but-the-facts-are-few
• Peter Whiteford on who-really-benefits-from-australias-tax-and-social-security-system  Thanks Steve from Brisbane

Northern America

• Roger Shanahan on Obamas-Syria-critics-ignore-inconvenient-facts
• Calculated Risk on update-prime-working-age-population-growing-again , demographic-impacts-renting-vs-owning
• Timothy Taylor on mass-shootings-trends-and-categories, rethinking-parameters-of-us-welfare-state , update-on-us-unions
• Edward Lambert on normal-fed-rate , profit-margins-ed
• Lord Keynes on the-1870s-economic-crisis-in-america
• Menzie Chinn on outsourced-monetary-tightening
• James Hamilton on how-do-consumers-respond-to-lower-gasoline-prices

Europe

• Tony Yates on unrevised-inflation-should-put-to-bed-the-revisionist-arguments , doves-and-credibility
• Karl Whelan on flat tax calcualtions for Ireland
• Chris Dillow on theres-one-thing-george-osborne-said-in-his-conference-speech-this-week-which-looks-odd-its-thiswe-simply-cant-subsidise
• Radan Kanev on europes-refugee-choice-unity-or-deluge
• Coppola comment on posts-on-russia

Asia

• Susanne Smeidl on Kunduz-tragedy-just-start-something-much-worse-for-Afghanistan
• Tamar Hermann on wanted-in-israel-democratic-leadership
• Kyle Wilson on Putin-in-Syria-Vladimir-of-Taurus-baffles-his-foes

Wonk

• David Collins on explainer-negotiators-reach-landmark-pacific-trade-deal-so-whats-next
• James Collins on supply-demand-and-the-price-of-oil-2
• Nick Rowe on  increasing-monopoly-power-and-declining-rate-of-interest, inflation-in-lake-wobegone , the-equivalence-between-national-debt-and-transferable-monopoly-rights
• Tim Harford on copyrights-and-wrongs
• Liberty street economics on has-liquidity-risk-in-the-corporate-bond-market-increased , has-liquidity-risk-in-the-treasury-and-equity-markets-increased  Thanks Mark
• Paul Romer on human-capital-and-knowledge
• Nick Gruen on using-behavioral-insights-to-increase-parental-engagement
• Tony Yates on is-monetary-impotence-due-to-monetary-innovation-on-jp-koning
• Noah Smith on free-trade-is-no-longer-a-no-brainer-for-economists
• Lord Keynes on walter-blocks-austrian-critique-of-mainstream-economics-a-critique , debunking-murphys-contra-krugman-ep-2
• Menzie Chinn on debt-devaluation-trade-and-more
• Kruggers on did-the-fed-save-the-world
• Chris Dillow on coping-with-unreplicability
• Antonio Fatas on savings-glut-and-financial-imbalances
• Alan Krueger on the-minimum-wage-how-much-is-too-much Thanks Mark
• Peter Dorman on where-does-minimum-wage-max-out
• Paul Romer on clear-writing-produces-clearer-thoughts Thanks Mark

General

• Chris Dillow on trident-the-limits-of-rationality
• Brendan Pittal on the-soccer-managers-changing-role
• Daniel Voskoboynik on silences-of-argentina-election
• Jose Angel Garcia on mexico-between-dangerous-democracy-and-democracy-at-risk
• Elliot Berkman and Jordan Miller-Zeigler on the-psychological-origins-of-procrastination-and-how-we-can-stop-putting-things-off

Climate

• Greg Laden on arctic-sea-ice-in-2015 , noaa-declares-third-ever-global-coral-bleaching-event
• and Then Theres Physics on not-even-partially-correct
• Real Climate on climate-change-is-coming-to-a-place-near-you
• moyhu on on-partial-derivatives , templs-october-and-antarctica-i-wrote
• Jeffrey Sachs on renewable-energy-decarbonization
• Robert Stavins on the-papal-encyclical-and-climate-change-policy Thanks Mark
• Steve from Brisbane on rainfall-will-change-just-not-sure-where
• Rob Painting on 2015-Still-No-Let-Up-in-Ocean-Warming
• Science of Doom on renewables-xiii-one-of-winds-hidden-costs
• Ove Hoegh-Guldberg on the-oceans-are-becoming-too-hot-for-coral-and-sooner-than-we-expected

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)

• flamebait-mathiness-in-economics-and-political-science
• cognitive-skills-rising-and-falling
• anti-cheating robots
• mindset-interventions-are-a-scalable-treatment-for-academic-underachievement-or-not
• gallup-gives-up-the-horse-race-as-pollsters-confront-unprecedented-obstacles-the-biggest-name-in-the-business-backs-away
• most-successful-blog-post-ever
• political-advertising-update
• doomed-to-fail-a-pre-registration-site-for-parapsychology
• latest-gay-gene-tabloid-hype
• gay-gene-tabloid-hype-update
• Andrew and Kaiser Fung on debunking-the-great-selfies-are-more-deadly-than-shark-attacks-myth
• Marc Bellemare on friends do let friends do iv
• kids prefer cheese on arrgh-ive-been-name-shamed-by-marc-f-bellemare

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• cointegration-granger-causality
• No Hesitations on whither-econometric-principal-components-regression

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• machines-and-humans , how-to-be-a-good-economist , alone-and-together-in-the-economy, happy-fish-and-economic-growth, who-will-win-the-economics-nobel-this-year

Vox wonk

• market-liquidity-liquid-markets-pitfalls-and-trends
• emerging-economy-corporate-debt-threat-financial-stability
• fixing-global-financial-safety-net
• minimum-wages-sub-saharan-africa-primer
• moving-house
• anti-tax-avoidance-laws-unintended-consequences
• international-production-networks-and-intra-firm-trade-new-evidence
• europe-s-new-single-market-challenge
• language-and-migration

Katesy is still ignorant

poor old Katesy.

There is he writing utter nonsense amongst people whom wouldn't know.
Now he writes about the foolishness of Keynesian economics,
oh dear. if there has been a person more ignorant or stupid who has written in the blogsphere I have yet to encounter him or her.
Katesy is the man who thinks Europe went on a Keynesian pump priming scourge. Except they didn't. They introduced contractionary policies that everybody acknowledged , even the Germans, but not out Katesy.

Those wonderful classical economic policies did not produce any recoveries anywhere. It did produce depressions. Just ask Ireland, Greece or even Estonia!

One of his great comments was that the statisticians were all Keynesians. You cannot trust any of them.

I do remember one time when he was mouthing off against Obama he claimed the government spending was destroying the economy, However that quarter as with many quarters the public sector did not add to GDP growth.
Lets us add understanding Statistical agency bulletins to basic statistics that he doesn't understand.

He says Costello ,by implication , adapted Classical economics.
When they won office in 1996 Treasury recommended tight economic policies. This was actually totally Keynesian and it was said as much.
By the end of their Government Peter Boxall was recommending a classical type policy in keeping the surplus at 2% of GDP. This was clearly not contractionary enough given events in Australia and hence we got increased inflation which is what Ken Henry said what would happen.
Oh Dear.

We must not forget he rewrites history. Keating and Costello were facing recessions when they got their budgets back to surplus apparently.

The only reason he writes at Catallaxy is Davidson will not allow anyone yo comment on how inaccurate out Katesy is. He bans anyone who do not write along the politburo there  spouts,
That is why basic mistakes by anyone there gets through and no-one spots them. They do not posses the nous to do so. that is why no-one commetns anywhere else. Like Our Judy they will leave with their tail between their legs after her Troppo fiasco,

Just remember our tax dollars are paying this man!

okay okay. for efficacy of stimulus see here

I see Katesy is now saying people fleeing ISIL will end up terrorists. Wow.What an intellect.

He keeps on supporting Abbott.
The man who increased both  deficits and debt. the man who said he would be the infrastructure Prime Minister but had such spending at its lowest level of GDP.
A man who both stopped the boats but also turned them back.
Yep it is no wonder Katesy supported the man.

Penalty rates again

I see more talk about getting rid of penalty rates again.

Two things.
Most people who work on the weekends are uni students. What do think they will do if their money is reduced?

We have seen some sort of example of this. Coles thought to bring down wage rates in their night fill yonks ago.  They no longer have night fill.

You will have some people putting their hands up . The people who need the money at all costs. However the decision between leisure and lower pay on Sunday would be a no-brainer.

I am still amazed no-one examines the supply side of labour when looking at penalty rates.

The TPP

It seems as though the TPP is now a signed agreement.

As it is a multi-lateral agreement there will be more benefits than the alleged benefits spruiked absurdly by the Government on the bi-lateral agreements.. Andrew Robb plainly did not know about the modelling commissioned by his own department.
On the other hand if the agreement is mainly about intellectual property as alleged by Kruggers then the benefits will be much lower.
Until we see the actual agreement we do not know. David Collins has some useful insights.
THIS is quite critical.
We can but hope it might jump start trade.

Around the Traps 2/10/15

It is time for Around the Traps again.It is a long weekend in Sydanee so updates could be problematic.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie, Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ken Wolf on the-silent-majority
• Julian Burnside on what-sort-of-country-are-we
• Peter Martin on scott-morrison-off-to-a-jittery-start-as-treasurer
• Catherine Middelton on broadband-is-the-key-infrastructure-for-the-21st-century
• Peter Briggs on Why-Australias-future-submarines-should-be-built-at-home
• The Kouk on optimal-red-tape-and-regulation
• Andrew Elder on less-than-expected

Northern America

• David Andolfatto on zero-intolerance
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-possible-government-shutdowns , real-prices-and-price-to-rent-ratio-in-July
• Kevin Williamson on thing-about-tax-cuts Thanks Mark
• Jason Furman on business_investment_in_the_united_states Thanks Mark
• Nick Bunker on the-relationship-between-u-s-productivity-growth-and-the-decline-in-the-labor-share-of-national-income Thanks Mark
• Eric Rauchway on very-short-reading-list-unemployment-in-the-1930s Thanks Mark

Europe

• Bill Mitchell on British Labour party is mad to sign up to the Charter of budget responsibility
• Tony Yates on is-labour-right-to-review-the-boe-mandate
• Chris Dillow on comfortable
• Simon Wren-Lewis on following-publication-of-revised-gdp
• Phillip Lane on the-financial-crisis-in-ireland-and-government-revenues
• Manuel Serrano on why-is-there-no-syriza-in-portugal

Asia

• James Hamilton on economic-importance-of-china
• Brad De Long on why-i-believe-paul-krugman-over-jim-hamilton-on-how-a-chinese-slowdon-is-by-itself-little-threat-to-the-us-economy
• Alex Lo on too-big-to-fail-china-pledges-to-set-up-landmark-emissions-trading-scheme
• Lily Rahim on fear-smear-and-the-paradox-of-authoritarian-politics-in-singapore
• David Beckworth on how-practical-is-japans-new-ngdp-target
• Dirk Van der Kley on Chinese-non-interference-has-changed-but-not-in-Iraq-and-Syria
• Stephen Grenville on As-commodity-prices-plunge-Asia-struggles-to-adjust
• Stefano Bellin on to-speak-about-jews-and-palestinians-we-need-non-racist-space-for-criticism
• Helga Embacher and  Jan Rybak on anti-semitism-in-muslim-communities-islamophobia-gaza-war
• Marc Owen Jones on bahrains-uprising-resistance-and-repression-in-gulf
• Stein Ringen on beijing-tightens-screws

Wonk

• Updated Priors on theory-and-real-world  Thanks Mark
• Coppolla Comment on the-great-yield-divergence
• Noah Smith on a-bit-of-pushback-against-empirical-tide , global-trade-slump-hints-at-slow-growth-future, the-rich-get-hit-harder-by-inflation-than-the-poor
• Chris Dillow on the-benign-deficit, the-trade-slowdown
• Mathew Kahn on macroeconomics-and-reality-revisited  Thanks Mark
• Simon Wren-Lewis on on-giving-advice
• Nick Rowe on dumb-questions-about-stock-market-predictability
• Timothy Taylor on computer-use-and-learning, exchange-rates-moving
• Tim Harford on peer-to-peer-pressure
• Menzie Chinn on reflections-on-ten-years-deficits-the-financial-crisis-textbook-economics-and-data-paranoia
• Mark the Graph on baltic-dry-index
• Kruggers on the-investment-accelerator-and-the-woes-of-the-world
• Joshua Gans on the-romer-model-turns-25  Thanks Mark

General

• Nich Gruen on ethnicity-and-occupation
• Adrieene Lafrance on water-is-flowing-on-mars
• David Rathery on nasa-streaks-of-salt-on-mars-mean-flowing-water-and-raise-new-hopes-of-finding-life
• Phil Bland and Getchen Benedix on there-is-water-on-mars-but-what-does-this-mean-for-life
• Chris Dillow on on-confined-expertise
• Scepticlawyer on immigration-and-social-order
• Jay Zagorsksy on plain-cigarette-packaging-healthier-citizens-sicker-state-finances

Climate

• Brian Flannery and Jaime De Melo on the-state-of-climate-negotiations
• Frank Jotsko on Chinas-emissions-trading-announcement-is-a-signal-to-the-world
• Stoat on huge-jump-in-use-of-carbon-pricing
• Tamino on exogenous-redux , same-old-same-old , epidemic-of-denial, arctic-sea-ice-2
• and Then There's Physics on emission-reductions , how-we-save-nature
• moyhu on optimised-gridding-for-temperature , ncepncar-index-up-006-in-september
• Artic sea ice blog on 2015-minimum-overview-part-2
• John Abraham on emphazising-co-benefits-motivates-action

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• the-final-bug-or-please-please-please-please-please-work-this-time
• fitting-models-with-discrete-parameters-in-stan
• how-to-use-lasso-etc-in-political-science
• an-unconvincing-analysis-claiming-to-debunk-the-health-benefits-of-moderate-drinking
• hot-hand-explanation-again
• jason-chaffetz-is-the-garo-yepremian-of-the-u-s-house-of-representatives-and-i-dont-mean-that-in-a-good-way
• comparing-waic-or-loo-or-any-other-predictive-error-measure
• Kaiser Fung on no-selfies-are-not-more-deadly-than-sharks

Genial Dave Giles (Econometrics)

• reading-list-for-october
• what-not-to-do-when-data-are-missing
• illustrating-spurious-regressions
• Marc Bellemare on regressions as ecosytems

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• not-the-sharks-fault , the-social-context-of-economic-disorder, services-and-the-singularity

Vox wonk

• retirement-and-changing-lifestyle-habits
• emergency-liquidity-assistance-and-greek-banks-bankruptcy
• foreign-entry-and-domestic-innovation
• regulatory-arbitrage-action-evidence-cross-border-lending
• low-interest-rates-capital-flows-and-declining-productivity-south-europe
• political-economy-of-liberal-democracy
• measuring-interest-premium-past-default
• diffusion-european-diesel-automobiles
• finance-and-growth-beware-measurement
• policy-driven-premature-deindustrialisation-malaysia
• costs-interest-rate-liftoff-homeowners-why-central-bankers-should-focus-inflation
• home-affordable-refinancing-program-impact-borrowers
• new-international-database-financial-fragility
• volatility-financial-crises-and-minskys-hypothesis
• errors-source-macroeconomic-frictions