No European medieval ice age

The pieces on the Vox wonk I put out in Around the Traps are really good.
One that caught my eye was by Morgan Kelly and Cormac O'Grada.
They demonstrated that the ice age never was. I also found out what the 'Slutsky' effect is as well.

Good reading

A tale of two States

We saw the Coalition returned to power in New South Wales whilst they got dumped in Queensland.
Why?  One obvious answer would be the leaders.

Campbell Newman simply exacerbated what people hated about Tony Abbott and vica versa. On the other hand Mike Baird most certainly did not. Although He looked very uncomfortable when he finally got some questions he couldn't answer ( see Andrew Elder).
Others like Ken Parish see grossly offensive ads without providing any evidence.
The idea of not wanting the Chinese Government not owning NSW electricity assets is hardly racist. As I say I really do not want any Government owning the Electricity assets (other than the NSW Government.)

Whilst the Previous ALP Government needed to lose in Queensland it didn't need to lose so badly.
On the other hand the ALP Government stank to high heaven.

It would not be surprising that voters in Queensland thought they went in too hard last time and voted against the Government thinking they would win anyway because of their huge majority.  In essence we might have got a variation of the Wayne Goss effect. They lost by accident because too many people made a protest vote thinking it would not matter.
Quite clearly the ALP never thought they would win and in fact did little work on what they might do if they did win in Queensland.  Quite clearly they didn't do enough homework on one candidate! ( see HERE and HERE)

In NSW no-one was going to vote in the ALP after what had occurred when they were in Government.As I said previously they stank to high heaven and quite frankly the Coalition deserved another term.

Different leaders and different results.Both in Government and in Opposition.

Update:

I have been asked for an opinion on two issues so I will give them

1. A person should never have to leave any job merely on allegations.Most certainly if they are proved but as yet they are merely allegations that mysteriously only appeared AFTER the election.( Very strange that)
2. If Martin Ferguson was deliberately involved in the Liberal campaign he should be expelled from the party. It would be the same if a liberal member openly supported an ALP campaign. You cannot be a member of a party and then deliberately assist another party. In this Bill Shorten is entirely correct.on this Steve Kates shows he is not only mad but entirely clueless.

Bad Behaviour in sport

In my local competition where I have the pleasure of heading up the Umpires ( although I umpire in the Shires competition. Strange to be sure but that is what they wanted) we had poor behaviour  in the finals on the Weekend. This is a rarity but will be addressed. Reports will be completed on THREE matches out of five including the most prestigious A grade played on turf!

Then I found out quite late of homophobic slurs being used in a rugby game. I thought this very strange as these 'remarks' were directed at various players and I had not heard the team had a lot of players whom were homosexuals.
As it was the teams doesn't have a lot of homosexuals and the 'remarks' were directed to heterosexuals.  How 'homophobic' slurs can be directed to anyone but a homosexual is something on the Rugby Union administration can answer. It is bit like saying if you say someone is playing like a little girl it is a sexist slur.
Now a slur is defined as
 "

slur

 (slɜː)

vb (mainly tr) , slurs, slurring or slurred

1. (often foll by over) to treat superficially, hastily, or without due deliberation; gloss

2. (also intr) to pronounce or utter (words, etc) indistinctly

3. to speak disparagingly of or cast aspersions on

4. (Music, other) music to execute (a melodic interval of two or more notes) smoothly, as in legato performance

5. (also intr) to blur or smear

6. to stain or smear; sully

n

7. an indistinct sound or utterance

8. a slighting remark; aspersion

9. a stain or disgrace, as upon one's reputation; stigma

10. (Music, other) music

a. a performance or execution of a melodic interval of two or more notes in a part

b. the curved line (⌣ or ⌢) indicating this

11. (Printing, Lithography & Bookbinding) a blur or smear ''

Obviously in this case it is number three that is being used.

In football I hand out yellow cards for derogatory comments.

This is defined as:

"

derogatory 

Something that's derogatory is insulting or disrespectful. If you make derogatory comments, that means you say things that are unflattering, unkind, or demeaning.

Derogatory means about the same as insulting. Derogatory language is meant to hurt, and it usually does. If you feel offended or insulted by what someone says, the person probably said something derogatory. Racial, sexist, and homophobic slurs are all derogatory. Insults that mean someone is stupid or crazy are derogatory. Making a joke about someone's mother is derogatory."

Thus I believe rugby union over-reacted. If the man was playing football I would have shown him a yellow the first time he said the comments and then the second time and hence he would have been shown a red card.

Around the Traps 27/3/15

It is time for Around the Traps again. Will update over the week-end.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on budget-needs-more-efficiency-less-economic-repression
• Ken Parish on debt-and-deficit-emergency-half-full-glass , ahead-of-the-zeitgeist-on-metadata , more-metadata-musing
• Bruce Bradbury on housing-bubbles
• The Conversation on high-cost-of-gp-rebate-freeze-may-see-co-payments-rise-from-the-dead
• Mumble on whats_the_deal_with_nsw_preferences , newspoll_giveth_and_taketh_away
• The Piping Shrike on fraser
• Greg Jericho  on tony-abbotts-confused-pre-budget-narrative-has-few-ideas-for-economic-recovery , the-rise-in-the-standard-of-living-is-a-quirk-of-timing-not-a-reflection-of-a-buoyant-economy
• Sev Orowski on Moss report released
• Mark the Ballot on poll-update
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-onion-edition
• The Kouk on rose-coloured-glasses-half-full , the-carbon-tax-worked-household-consumption-of-electricity-down-then-up , why-government-debt-must-grow-forever , mr-hockey-s-plans-for-1-6-trillion-of-government-debt
• Andrew Elder on two-good-stories-today

Northern America

• James Hamilton on fed-moves-the-markets
• Calculates Risk on a-few-comments-on-february-existing-sales , comments-on-new-home-sales , key-measures-show-low-inflation-in-february
• David Andolfatto on the-audit-fed-crowd
• David Beckworth on ramesh-ponnuru-on-test-of-market-monetarism
• Timothy Taylor on digging-into-capital-and-labor-income-shares
• Brad De Long on the-assumptions-behind-the-federal-reserves-choice-of-2-per-year-were-erroneous-focus
• Timothy Taylor on the-rise-of-mortgages-too-much-house
• Robert Waldmann on diabetes-diagnoses-surge-in-states-which-expanded-medicaid 
• Menzie Chinn on pompeii-on-sf-bay
• Kruggers on hidden-healthcare-horrors

Europe

• Simon Wren-Lewis on controlling-the-past , zero-uk-inflation , /rollercoasters-and-rules
• Nick Gruen on yanis-varoufakiss-latest-blog-post
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-currency-politics-understanding-the-euro
• Chris Dillow on insincere-apologies , the-clarkson-problem
• Kruggers on eurobounce
• Tony Yates on discord-about-econ-discourse , peston-graded-a-zero-on-non-zero-zero-bound

Asia

• Timothy Taylor on singapore-snapshots-and-lee-kuan-yew

Wonk

• Simon Wren-Lewis on default-panic-and-other-tall-stories , why-do-central-banks-use-new-keynesian, protecting-public-from-policy-entrepeneurs
• Nick Rowe on asymmetric-home-bias-and-the-transfer-problem-1, buyers-liquidity-vs-sellers-liquidity , new-gesellian-macroeconomics
• Brad De Long on todays-must-must-read-robert-skidelsky-messed-up-macro
• Mark Thoma on anti-keynesian-delusions, fiscal-policy-procyclicality-and-output-forecast-errors-bad-luck-or-bad-decisions, microeconomic-origins-of-macroeconomic-tail-risks
• David Glasner on why-theories-of-national-income-based-on-accounting-identities-are-nonsensical-and-error-ridden-part-iv
• Philip Lane on when-is-macroprudential-policy-effective
• Francesco Saraneno on the-confidence-witch  Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on estimates on the elasticity of employment with respect to the minimum wage
• Noah Smith on piketty-s-three-big-mistakes-in-inequality-analysis

General

• Rod Jones on struggle-against-antisemitism
• Alan Cooper and Wolfgang Haak on european-invasion-dna-reveals-the-origins-of-modern-europeans
• Noah Smith on affirmative-action-for-conservatives
• Tim Harford on the-pricing-paradox-when-diamonds-arent-on-tap
• Chris Dillow on banning-cash , alienation-the-non-issue
• Seth Blumsack on why-rooftop-solar-is-disruptive-to-utilities-and-the-grid
• Lord Keynes on a-challenge-to-truth-relativists , foucaults-truth-relativism
• Doverbeach on Leyonhjelm on marriage again
• Zainad Mai-Bomu on boko-harams-six-years-of-terror-have-revealed-the-depth-of-nigerias-troubles

Climate

• Brad De Long on nighttime-must-read-jay-rosen-claims-climate-science-hoax
• Real Climate on whats-going-on-in-the-north-atlantic
• Tim McDonnell on ted-cruz-seth-myers-climate-change
• Chris Mooney on ted-cruz-says-satellite-data-show-the-globe-isnt-warming-this-satellite-scientist-feels-otherwise , global-warming-is-now-slowing-down-the-circulation-of-the-oceans-with-potentially-dire-consequences
• Skeptical Science on greenhouse_measured , ipso-impotent-at-curbing-mail-climate-misinformation
• Tamino on stupid-is-as-ted-cruz-does
• Hotwhopper on slowing-ocean-circulation-prompts-more-Mann-bashing , deconstructing-97-self-destructed-Richard-Tol
• John Abraham on uah-lowballing-global-warming
• Environmental economics on new-arguments-on-a-carbon-tax  Thanks Mark
• Justin Gillis on amazon-forest-becoming-less-of-a-climate-change-safety-net
• Steve from Brisbane on protracted-sarcasm-can-be-pretty-funny  read the comments
• Eureka Alert on Antartic ice shelves rapidly thinning
• Mark Thoma gives us Robert Schiller on how-idealism-can-fight-climate-change

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly but not only Stats)

• no-fixed-random
• paul-meehl-continues-boss
• adiabatic-wanna-chess-ratings-like-classical-economic-theory
• define-first-prove-later
• yet-another-disgraced-primatologist-time-featuring-sympathetic-dentists
• imagining-p
• publication-one-pet-ideas-simulation-efficient-shortest-probability-intervals
• Kaiser Fung on reading-some-wild-traffic-statistics-from-new-zealand ,sense-and-nonsense-about-big-data-and-surveys

Genial Dave Giles (Econometrics)

• the-world-championship-of-econometrics
• Arthur Charpentier on regression-models-its-not-only-about-interpretation

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• how-to-change-the-world , economics-and-humankind , shipping-containers-redux

Vox wonk

• politician-s-age-and-policy
• us-university-degrees-high-cost-high-reward
• competition-and-rd-evidence-biopharma
• cancer-drug-prices-rise-no-end-sight
• how-did-ecb-save-eurozone-without-spending-single-euro
• microeconomic-origins-macroeconomic-tail-risks
• myth-of-europe-s-little-ice-age

NSW Election

I have been sick this week thus I have had the full glare of the NSW election upon me.

The Government should have a decent win on Saturday. This shows the electorate will vote for a party with an unpopular policy if the leader isn't a pretentious prat. Queensland take note.

The main issue is the privatisation of the poles and wires.Whilst both sides have been dishonest of the WHOLE issue I do think the government has been worse than the Opposition.
what has intrigued me is that in the last week Baird ha looked rattled when questioned on the issue.
He only seems a fair weather politician.
It could prove interesting next term.

I also watched  Federal parliament yesterday when doing the family ironing. Yes I am a new age man!

Three things stood out like the shag on a rock.

• Abbott is in his last days, Asserting stopping the boats meant less arms and drugs in Australia was simply absurd.  He is poor under pressure as we have see since the election.
• Bishop simply has no common sense. Fancy backing Twiggy Forest's absurd proposal. If she was ever in leader's contention she ain't now. just on that topic Judy Sloan shows she had too much peroxide this morning. Oh dear. At least she hasn't a reputation to damage!
• The other Bishop is quite clearly the worst speaker in history. The ALP should so a highlights package of her and put it on youtube.

Compare and Contrast

Read This or This . Now read This 

interesting yes?

A Wonderful Gesture

Yesterday Parliament met to pay tribute to Malcolm Fraser who had died and was Prime Minister of Australia.
Parliament now has a tradition of rising after paying tribute to a former Prime minister who has recently died as a mark of respect. It is a tradition I do like.

Most people realise a politician's job is much more then being in parliament but some lazy people clearly do not understand this. If only they had a work ethic!

Around the Traps 20/3/15

It is time for Around the Traps again.  Umpiring all weekend so updates will be late

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie, Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Martin on hockey-is-right-eating-into-super-would-home-ownership-back-on-track
• John Quiggin on neither-up-nor-down , the-tpp-an-attack-on-our-freedoms, plan-b , bad-for-the-client-bad-for-the-bottom-line
• Ross Gittins on were-not-taking-productivity-seriously , our-kids-need-social-skills-not-just-high-marks
• Mumble on a_new_liberal_leader , would_tony_do_it
• M0nty on short-kicks-whoa-oh-onion-skin
• The Piping Shrike on lifestyle
• Andrew Elder on new-south-wales-twenty-fifteen
• Steve from Brisbane on have-to-agree
• Greg Jericho on industrial-action-is-at-near-record-lows-but-businesses-will-still-blame-unions , negative-gearing-a-legal-tax-rort-for-rich-investors-that-reduces-housing-affordability
• Max Chalmers on three-refugees-hospitalised-after-more-self-harm-and-violence-nauru
• The Kouk onlabor-or-liberal-which-side-is-best-at-job-creation , labor-or-liberal-which-side-is-best-for-economic-growth
• Chas Keys on defending BOM's forecasting of Tropical cyclones
• Rabee Tourkey on Pyne adopts the Pitchford/Tourkey skin in the future of HECS
• Ian Mahyuddin on Surprise-surprise

Northern America

• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-the-end-of-patient-and-questions-for-yellen , fed-watch-yellen-strikes-a-dovish-tone
• Rebert Waldmann on is-the-us-getting-addicted-to-extremely-low-interest-rates
• James Hamilton on u-s-oil-supply-update
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-february-housing-starts
• Menzie Chinn on some-implications-of-the-dollars-rise , short-term-implications-of-the-house-budget , the-yield-curve-and-economic-activity-again
• Owen Zidar on 11-interesting-charts-from-the-ceas-economic-report-of-the-president
• Livio De Matteo on a-resource-bust-and-yet
• Kruggers on modern-and-postmodern-recessions
• Edward Lambert on alice-rivlin-financial-instability-now-more-of-a-threat-than-inflation
• Eric Rauchway on definitely-finally-actually-not-mistakably-off-the-gold-standard
• Brad De Long on medicare-and-obamacare

Europe

• Kruggers on st-augustine-and-secular-stagnation , self-justifying-swedes , why-is-british-economic-discourse-so-bad
• Brad De Long on todays-must-must-read-lars-e-o-svennson-riksbank-deputy-governor-jansson-tries-defend-indefensible
• Kenneth Thomas on more-evidence-low-taxes-didnt-create-the-celtic-tiger
• Simon Wren-Lewis on the-graph-george-osborne-doesnt-want-you-to-see , a-productive-budget , fantasy-macroeconomics
• Jonathan Portes on a-troubling-attitude-to-statistics
• Chris Dillow on media-deference, on-believing-osborne , the-productivity-policy-paradox
• Peter Dorman on grexit-from-threat-to-promise
• Eunice Goes on budget-2015-no-magic-but-plenty-of-political-tricks
• The Conversation on budget-2015-experts-respond
• Seamus Coffey on cso-updates
• Tony Yates on ez-qe-features-and-bugs

Asia

• Mark Thoma gives is Kruggers on israels-gilded-age
• Bruce Webb on israel-demography-vs-democracy
• Robert Waldmann on even-the-liberal-jonathan-chait-is-fed-up-with-netanyahu
• Timothy Taylor on chinas-consumption-transition

Wonk

• Kruggers on exchange-rates-and-balance-sheet-effects ,sources-of-slow-recovery , the-age-of-frozen-certainties
• Mark Thoma gives us Josh Barro on tax-cuts-still-dont-pay-for-themselves
• Simon Wren-Lewis on radical-macro-lessons-from-the-great-recession, is-walrasian-auctioneer-microfounded, sticky-wages-both-sides-of-atlantic
• Nick Rowe on says-law-and-lump-of-labour , david-levines-accidental-monetarism , 
• Tim Harford on man-v-machine-again
• Tony Yates on carney-and-mccafferty-on-oil-and-monetary-policy , price-level-shocks-and-bottom-up-theories-of-inflation
• Brad De Long on alice-rivlin-thoughts-about-monetary-and-fiscal-policy-in-a-post-inflation-world-brookings-institution , afternoon-must-read-nick-bunker-recoveries-financial-crises-always-slow
• David Glasner on of-bathtubs-drains-and-faucets
• Noah Smith on why-did-us-deficit-start-exploding-in-around-1980 , a-case-where-rbc-works
• Myrtle Blackwood on do-we-all-share-same-future-as-greece
• Leon Berkelmans on Piketty-responds-to-his-critics Thanks Mark
• Ross Gittins on why-fiscal-policy-may-be-making-comeback
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-currency-politics-debt-politics

General

• Chris Dillow on the-self-centred-bias
• Jim Rose on the-decline-of-unions-a-conspiratorial-or-evolutionary-process
• Ali Omidi on 47 US Senators can be wrong
• Lord Keynes on did-austrian-libertarians-read-the-forgotten-depression , progress-in-marxism-on-labour-theory-of-value
• Noah Smith on race-and-iq-brain-eating-memetic-parasite
• Mark Thoma on great-britain-and-laissez-not-so-faire-economics
• Harry Clarke on insuring-quack-medical-treatments-and-nonquack-useless-treatments 

Climate

• David Hone on net-zero-emissions
• Hotwhopper on tropical-cyclones-and-enso
• Real Climate on severe-tropical-cyclone-pam-and-climate-change
• Andrea Thompson on twin-cyclones-could-jolt-weak-el-nino
• skeptical science on climate-change-in-arctic-messing-with-weather , fossil-fuels-way-more-expensive-than-you-think
• Rabette run on if-not-fire-then-freezer , a-rashomon-update-on-climate-betting
• Joe Romm on nasa-hottest-12-months-record , iea-co2-emissions-decouple-growth

Andrew Gelman ( Maibly but not only Stats)

• general-think-literatures-much-focus-data-analysis-not-enough-data-collection
• state-art-causal-inference-changes-since-1972
• Mark Thoma on varian-causal-inference-in-social-science-an-elementary-introduction
• what-do-cern-the-iss-and-stephen-fry-have-in-common
• bayesian-models-causal-inference-time-varying-exposures
• Chris Dillow on  well-have-to-look-at-the-data
• Timothy Taylor on data-movement-mushrooms , randomness-is-lumpy-pareidolia

Genial Dave Giles (Econometrics)
nutting yet

• conference-in-honor-of-aman-ullah
• eviews-is-now-released

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• electoral-ammunition-for-voters , innovating-for-good, educating-economists-3 , reading-the-unreadable
• Frances Woolley on social-blah-blah-blah
• doverbeah on weekend reading

Vox wonk

• surprise-monetary-tightening-expands-shadow-banking
• confidence-aggregate-demand-and-business-cycle-new-framework
• framework-banking-structural-reform
• impact-structural-reforms-eurozone-firm-level-data
• transparency-and-effectiveness-monetary-policy
• robots-productivity-and-jobs
• labour-and-finance-aftermath-great-recession
• publicly-shaming-delinquent-taxpayers
• new-authoritarianism

For Economic wonks Simon Wren-Lewis

Simon Wren-Lewis writes on is-walrasian-auctioneer-microfounded.

As with most of Simon's writings it is a must read. very useful in understanding Real Business Cycle and New Keynesian models.

Enjoy

The rise in Industrial activity

Yes I am being sarcastic.
Greg Jericho forensically goes through the statistics on industrial disputes and guess what. It is at its lowest for a December quarter.

Will this mean a mea culpa from Steve Kates , Judith Sloan , Gerry Henderson The Australian and any other idiots who proclaimed 're-regulation' is increasing industrial disputation?

Anyone? Bueller?

They are either innumerate, idealogical warriors who never mark their beliefs to market or both

Parliamentary Performance

I was reading Steve from Brisbane about Joe Hockey. In reality it it my old mate Peter Martin reporting on hockey being outclassed by John  Daley of the Grattan Institute.

Peter goes onto to say Hockey never gets this in Parliament.
Hmm
When the Opposition try and show a Minister is wrong they are never allowed to table the documents ( No matter what hue the government).

I am reminded of something I did with another old mate from Canberra. He said firstly Keating was masterful and then Costello was equally so in Parliament.

Each time we went to Parliament to see these 'masters' in parliament we saw huge gaffes from each.
Keating didn't understand bond yields and Costello thought an expenditure tax was a consumption tax.

Strong performances in Parliament usually means means aggressive not knowledgeable behaviour.
Talking about that Steve links an article from our favourite peroxide princess. She obviously like everyone at Catallaxy doesn't care about her reputation.

We Won!

The team I coach won its grand final and remained undefeated throughout the season.

We made 9/138 and they were all out for 129. Our last wicket stand of 18 got us through.

My youngest son made the only 50 of the game and took 3/17 in a man of the match display.

A very exciting and in the end enjoyable game.

Match scores HERE

Around the Traps 13/3/15

It is time for Around the Traps again. The team I coach at cricket is in the grand final.No guarantees on updating!


Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Martin on the-intergenerational-report-to-be-right-message-wrong -time , intergenerational-report-how-labor-was-framed , intergenerational-report-why-future-is-not-as-bleak-as-feared
• John Quiggin on nsw-privatisation
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-neither-fish-nor-fowl
• The Kouk on does-mr-hockey-want-to-inflate-house-prices-further , tobacco-consumption-in-australia-continues-to-plummet-in-the-wake-of-the-plain-packaging-laws
• Andrew Elder on what-changed
• Greg Jericho on intergenerational-report-assumptions-about-government-spending-are-a-confusion-of-idiocy, allowing-first-home-buyers-to-access-their-superannuation-is-another-harebrained-hockey-idea
• Max Chalmers on fresh-revelations-weaken-scott-morrisons-claims-about-self-harm-coaching-staff-nauru
• Stephen Duckett on federal-health-spending-is-forecast-to-slow-but-states-face-rising-bills
• Ross Gittins on tears-for-first-home-buyers-crocodile , why-monetary-policy-stimulus-is-less-effective
• Johnathon Ariel on NSW energy prices, up,up and away
• Mark the Ballott on polling-update
• Mumble on pup_no_more

Northern America

• Calculated Risk on cbo-projection-budget-deficit-to-be-lower-than-forecast , why-the-prime-labor-force-participation-has-declined 
• Kruggers on slandering-the-70s , demand-policies-in-two-big-recessions , the-truth-about-entitlements, when-values-disappear, capital-confusion-at-the-fomc
• James Hamilton on u-s-oil-production-still-surging
• New Deal Democrat on dear-federal-reserve-now-is-the-time-to-raise-interest-rates-rly-srsly
• Edward Lambert on john-williams-easing-normal
• Ben Zipperer on labor-market-slack-affordable-care-act  Thanks Brad
• Noah Smith on cbo-dynamic-scoring-creates-economic-policy-with-political-bias, americans-are-better-behaved-than-ever
• Eric Rauchway on roosevelts-money-policy-1933-1934
• Timothy Taylor on fear-of-cheap-foreign-labor-in-the-long-deprecession
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-will-the-dollar-impact-us-growth
• Edward Lambert on good-firms-gain-in-normalizing-monetary-policy

Europe

• David Beckworth on fool-me-once-shame-on-you-fool-me-twice-shame -on-me
• Kruggers on exporting-europes-stagnation
• Tony Yates on qe-exit-here-we-go-again , the-bond-of-trust-yielding-from-central-bank-transparency
• Jonathan Portes on welfare-reform-plea-better-journalism

Asia

• Noah Smith on hyperpower

Wonk

• JP Konig on paul-krugman-contemplates-lower-bound  Thanks Mark
• Mark Thoma on finance-is-great-but-it-can-be-a-real-drag-too
• David Andolfatto on involuntary-labor-market-choices
• Nick Rowe on involuntary-unemployment-as-worsening-trade-off , how-much-of-a-deficit-will-in-fact-be-money-financed
• Chris Dillow on does-the-current-account-deficit-matter, tolerating-inequality , economists-be-more-marxist , jeremy-clarkson-as-central-bank
• Noah Smith on the-pincer-attack-on-macro-models
• Jeff Madrick on  why-economists-cling-discredited-ideas
• Brad De Long on austerity-gramscian-hegemony-hard-money-re-education-camp-weblogging
• Bill Mitchell on Never impose austerity in a slump
• Nick Gruen on cutting-tax-on-dividends-a-mugs-game-if-you-wanted-to-improve-economic-efficiency-that-is
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-nowcasting-global-gdp-growth
• Mark Thoma gives us Alice Rivlin on monetary-and-fiscal-policy-in-a-post-inflation-world
• David Glasner on why-theories-of-national-income-based-on-accounting-identities-are-nonsensical-and-error-ridden-part-iii
• Nick Gruen on insiders-faux-insiders-efficiency-and-equity-in-the-stockmarket-with-a-thought-experiment-and-an-abstract
• Simon Wren-Lewis on the-power-of-financial-markets
• Sadwichman on says-law-and-secret-police
• Dan Crawford on the-phillips-curve-in-the-21st-century-or-the-phillips-curve-as-a-3-dimensional-foil

General

• Noah Smith on andrew-gelman-smacks-me-down-on-social-science-rivalries
• Peter Dorman on the-harsh-truth-about-israel
• Timothy Taylor on the-economics-of-media-bias
• Harry Clarke on plain-packaging-of-cigarettes
• Charlie Hoyle on gaza-fishing-industry-held-hostage-at-sea
• David Singer on Netanyahu puts behaviour change by Iran on negotiating agenda 
• Curtis Bradley on republicans-fail-in-attempt-at-a-civics-lecture-to-iranian-leaders
• Gemma Paech on could-flexible-working-hours-be-the-answer-to-the-sleep-loss-epidemic
• Lorenzo on why-in-the-pc-universe-there-is-a-paucity-of-bad-muslims
• Jim Rose on the-dunning-kruger-effect-versus-non-directional-coaching
• Chris Dillow on on-anti-discrimination-laws

Climate

• Andreas Smittner on checkinback
• Idiottracker on cutting-emissions-with-rail-upgrades
• Andrea Thompson on arctic-sea-ice-record-winter-low Thanks Skeptical Science
• Ker Thon on friction-means-antarctic-glaciers-more-sensitive-climate-change-we-thought ditto
• Scientific American on merchants-of-doubt-about-global-warming-hope-to-strike-back  ditto
• Joe Romm on climate-change-rate
• Rabette run on analysis-soons-nondisclosure
• Anita Talberg and Malte Meinshausen on explainer-how-countries-could-come-to-a-global-climate-deal-in-2015

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly but not only Stats)

• causal-impact-google
• ellen-langer-expert-victim-illusion-control
• voices-from-everywhere-saying-gently-this-we-praise-this-we-dont
• Transformative experiences
• Stock and flow and other that are important but not taught to statisticians
• using-y-bar-predict-y-whats
• Kaiser Fung on some-data-science-principles-from-gelman-rosling-and-me

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• edmond-malinvaud-1923-2015

Dianne Coyle ( Quirky + Book Reviews)

• on-the-train , economics-and-its-women-problem , revolutionaries-old-and-new, theory-of-unemployment-reconsidered , pinkoes-bards-librarians
• Steve from Brisbane on one-for-libertarian-reader
• Doverbeach on weekend reading

Vox wonk

• impacts-obamacare-young-adults
• rise-residential-segregation
• monetary-policy-and-credit-costs
• awards-motivation-and-performance
• environmental-engel-curves
• wage-inequality-and-firm-growth
• eurozone-debt-bailouts-and-contagion
• deindustrialisation-and-development
• daly-measure-direct-impact-natural-disasters
• banking-integration-and-dollarisation

Malcolm Turnbull talking porkies

I see that Sinclair Davidson is now spruiking Malcolm Turnbull for Prime Minister now Tony Abbott is a carcass flaying in the wind.
He carries a speech from Malcolm for us to read here. Only one problem is it is wrong.

If you are accurately going to show what occurred with the ALP you have to use figures from the PEFO. He didn't.

Let us just look at the start will we.

Turnbull alleges and Davidson therefore concurs that Spending and Revenue were $ 411b and $363b when the ALP were defeated.

err no.

PEFO tells us that the figures were $397b and $367b respectively. Where does Turbull get his figures from?  From the current budget. He obviously doesn't know about MYEFO!

Only one problem with using budget figures for the 2013/14 budget. The Coalition changed it when they won Government. They increased spending for that fiscal year and revised the economic parameters.

Hence we see Turnbull not even using the correct figures. I won't go into assuming away the GFC and the effect that had on spending.
However to blame the ALP for the extra spending the government he is a part of is making lying an art form.

Now just let us look at what the Departments of Treasury and Finance said what would occur in future years.

Table 1: Summary of budget aggregates 
Projections                    2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Underlying cash balance 
      ($b)(a)                     -30.1          -24.0    -4.7     4.2 
Per cent of GDP            -1.9          -1.5       -0.3     0.2 

If Turnbull thinks the Government he is a part of inherited a fiscal mess he either did not read PEFO  or  simply did not understand it just like Sinclair Davidson.

Maybe Turnbull is waiting for stagflation to turn up?

Another health scare?

At around 2 a.m. this morning I had to go to Ryde Hospital.

I had a pain in my left kidney and a quite severe stomach upset.

A scan found a small kidney stone. I had had some years ago a large kidney stone ( a very painful experience).  No-one could tell me of why I had a stomach upset.

I did find out however that my kidney are not working properly. This is something I have to to keep a close watch on for the rest of my life.
 
The reason for my kidney problem is twofold.
Firstly the large kidney stone did damage BUT the long time until the Staff at the Hospital discovered Secondly I had a problem with my prostrate did irrevocable damage to my kidneys over the 6 hours I was at the hospital.

I am quite tired at present as I got little sleep last night and naturally my stomach is still feeling strange.

Now back to bed.

The polls change again?

The Newspoll is out and wow the bounce back to the government has evaporated.
I should say if people had read either Kevin Bonham or Mumble would not be very surprised. I might add me somewhat immodestly as well.

I have to say a lot of 'pundits' and/or commentators' simply do not understand basic statistics.

I wonder if some people will think again before commentating next time. Given Abbott for example was no different in parliament I also wonder whether people will view 'performance' in parliament independent of any opinion poll.

Simon Wren-Lewis on Nick Rowe's question for those who oppose Austerity

Simon Wren-Lewis writes a very  good article in response to Nick Rowe who asked  a 'very silly' question for those people who oppose austerity. Namely  would you still advocate fiscal stimulus in a liquidity trap (with interest rates stuck at some lower bound - the ZLB) if government debt was ten times annual GDP?

Wonderful article and highly instructive.

Around the Traps 6/3/15

It is time for Around the Traps again.  . Lots and lots of articles this week.
Hopefully I will update on Sunday

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Martin on trans-pacific-partnership-threat-to-health , be-careful-when-reading-the inter-generational-report , now-business-calls-for-government-to-open-up-the-TransPacific-partnership , the-real-story-to-emerge-from-tuesdays-RBA's-meeting
• Mark the Ballot on /february-poll-update
• Mumble on lessons_from_the_1980s , the_commentator_bubble
• Antony Green on why-the-baird-government-is-vulnerable
• The Kouk on abbott-gives-up-on-debt-and-deficit
• Greg Jericho on the-worst-wages-growth-in-20-years-is-joe-hockeys-good-news , limping-gdp-growth-six-things-about-the-state-of-australias-economy
• Chris Graham on george-brandis-and-sins-our-senators
• Mary Ann Kenny and Sara Davies on factcheck-did-1200-refugees-die-at-sea-under-labor
• Kevin Bonham on poll-roundup-ipsos-stalls-re-spill
• Jim Rose on france-here-the-new-zealand-labour-market-comes-part-2-how-the-employment-court-is-re-regulating
• The Kouk on autralia-the-shane-watson-economy
• Andrew Elder on julie-bishop-is-not-running-for-prime-minister
• John Quiggin on one-weird-trick-that-proves-the-igr-is-nonsense , a-life-expectancy-of-95-by-2050-this-does-not-mean-what-you-think-it-means
• The Conversation on hockey-looks-to-armies-in-intergenerational-report-experts-react
• Peter Whiteford on intergenerational-report-lays-uneven-path-for-tough-policy-choices
• Rafal Chomik on the-intergenerational-report-and-reforming-the-age-pension
• Peter Christoff on climate-is-an-intergenerational-issue-but-the-report-ducked-it
• Anthony Scott on how-likely-are-doctors-to-charge-more-due-to-the-rebate-freeze

Northern America

• Robert Waldeman on quality-premiums-and-gdp-growth  Thanks Mark
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-game-on , fed-watch-does-the-fed-have-a-currency-problem , fed-watch-patient-is-history
• Janet Currie on obamacare-long-term-u-s-economic-competitiveness
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-analyzing-recent-trends-in-the-u-s-wealth-distribution
• Laura Tyson and Lenny Mendoca on america-health-care-reform-policy-innovation  Thanks Brad
• Mark Thoma on rep-paul-ryan-is-getting-the-economics-wrong-on-cap-and-trade-and-a-revenue-neutral-carbon-tax
• Robert Greenstein, Joel Friedman and  Isaac Shapiro on program spending outside social security and medicare projected to fall  Thanks Mark
• Robert Greenstein, Isaac Shapiro and Richard Cogan on low income programs not the fiscal problem Thanks Mark
• Steve Roth on why-liberals-keep-losing
• Carola Binder on federal-reserve-communication-with-congress
• Kruggers on remembrance-of-nairus-past
• Tim Taylor on us-dependency-ratios-looking-ahead
• Menzie Chinn on some-empirics-regarding-right-to-work-laws

Europe

• Tony Yates on one-wrong-sentance-after-another
• Simon Wren-Lewis on eurozone-fiscal-policy-still-not-getting-it , a-campaign-based-on-ignorance
• David Beckworth on the-origins-of-eurozone-monetary-policy-crisis
• Mark Blyth on Germany-austerity-blyth-speech-spd
• Lord Keynes on the-germans-dont-remember-how-allies-forgave-most-of-their-debt

Asia

• Noah Smith on japan-is-not-collectivist-society

Wonk

• Pro-Growth Liberal on can-tax-cuts-lower-economic-growth
• Timothy Taylor on six-reasons-why-economists-should-say-less-about-competition
• Paul Krugman on the-slippery-slope-of-disinflation , how-negative-can-rates-go
• James Hamilton on what-is-the-new-normal-for-the-real-interest-rate
• Nick Rowe on a-silly-question-for-anti-austerians , the-land-theory-of-value
• David Glasner on why-theories-of-national-income-based-on-accounting-identities-are-nonsensical-and-error-ridden-part-ii
• Mark Thoma gives us Joshua Gans on can-competition-fix-net-non-neutrality
• Tim Harford on battle-for-the-webs-last-mile
• Simon Wren-Lewis on fiscal-policy-correlations-and-causation, deflation-inflation-oil-prices-and-asymmetries
• Chris Dillow on impossible-choices-markets , when-biases-collide , wages-as-social-constructs
• Antonio Fatas on missing-anti-inflation-central-bankers
• Tony Yates on post-hawk-ergo-propter-hawk , raise-the-inflation-target-to-4-per-cent
• Bill Mitchell on The fourth intergenerational myth report
• Mark Thoma on economists-biggest-failure
• Livio De Matteo on a-very-brief-history-of-demand-and-supply
• Noah Smith on economics-can-t-predict-the-big-things-like-recessions

General

• Robert Waldeman on netanyahu-lied-so-far-no-one-died
• Steve from Brisbane on even-more-mars-deep-skepticism
• Susan Jacoby on the-first-victims-of-the-first-crusade  Thanks Brad
• Noah Smith on passive-management-vs-saving-more
• Nick Gruen on metaphor-alert-on-data
• Lord Keynes on foucaults-obscurantism-he-admitted-it
• Steve from Brisbane on does-anonymous-informal-suicide-counselling-work

Climate

• Hotwhopper on ipcc-staying-on-course-with-some
• Real Climate on the-soon-fallacy , climate-oscillations-and-the-global-warming-faux-pause
• Skeptical science on SkS-News-Bulletin-1-Willie-Soon , kahan-geoeng-polar , oceans-may-be-lulling-us-into-false-sense-climate-security , understanding-tobs-bias
• Max Corden on for-this-generation-and-the-next-its-time-to-bring-back-the-carbon-tax
• Karsten Neuoff on ixing-europe-s-emissions-trading-scheme

Andrew Gelman ( Mainly Stats)

• what-hypothesis-testing-is-all-about-hint-its-not-what-you-think
• introducing-shinystan
• one-simple-trick-to-make-stan-automatically-runs-in-parallel-from-r
• these-are-the-statistics-papers-you-just-have-to-read
• my-talk-tomorrow-thurs-at-mit-political-science-recent-challenges-and-developments-in-bayesian-modeling-and-computation-from-a-political-and-social-science-perspective
• defaults-set-hard-change
• saturated-fat-studies-set-fail
• first-world-problems-stan-edition
• interactive-demonstrations-linear-gaussian-process-regressions
• Kaiser Fung on reflecting-on-alamars-reflection-on-sports-data , cluster-analysis-in-the-classroom

Genial Dave Giles ( Econometrics)

• march-reading-list 
•  the-et-interviews
• granger-causality-seasonal-adjustment

Dianne Coyle (Quirky + Book Reviews)

• economics-and-mr-spock , models-methods-and-madness , some-history-of-thought-is-better-than-none , preparation-for-a-public-policy-degree
• Doverbeach on weekday reading early edition

Vox Wonk 

• assessing-compliance-stability-and-growth-pact-s-rules
• ecb-minutes-what-they-really-tell-us
• changes-bank-england-s-monetary-policy-meetings
• post-crisis-banking-regulation-evolution-economic-thinking-it-happened
• the-land-theory-of-value
• capital-taxation-21st-century
• argentina-s-haircut-outlier
• recessions-and-making-career-criminals
• macroprudential-spillovers-and-organisational-structure
• transportation-costs-and-industrial-clustering-new-evidence
• global-value-chains-and-domestic-value-added-new-evidence
• austerity-and-recovery-east-asian-lessons-europe
• network-based-insights-economists
• fixing-europe-s-emissions-trading-scheme
• oil-prices-and-value-oil-currencies