Stephen Stills

Here is Stephen Stills doing Crossroads live.

It was sensational when I first heard this on his live album. It is just as good today.

Around the Traps 7/10/16

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie.Aussie,Aussie.Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Daley et al  on the-superannuation-myth-why-its-a-mistake-to-increase-contributions-to-12-of-earnings
• John Quiggin on the-lnponp-coalition-government-whos-in-charge , the-good-news-on-climate, a-small-victory
• The Kouk on credit-downgrade-assured-if-coalition-keeps-hiding-from-its-debt-and-deficit-disaster
• Laura Perry and Emma Rowe on yes-some-australian-private-schools-are-overfunded-heres-why
• Paul Harrison on consumers-dont-understand-smartphone-contracts
• Croaking Cassandra on rbnz-board-not-doing-the-job-parliament-gave-them , envy-of-the-world-or-middling-at-best
• Kevin Bonham on recent-nsw-state-polling
• Samantha Hepburn on south-australian-blackout-renewables-arent-a-threat-to-energy-security-theyre-the-future
• Mark Gibbs on lessons-from-south-australias-blackout-we-need-to-make-infrastructure-more-resilient-to-climate-change
• Abbas Valadkhani on banks-make-millions-in-delaying-interest-rate-cuts
• Gabrialle Appleby on standoff-between-brandis-and-solicitor-general-threatens-the-rule-of-law
• Dylan McConnell on we-dont-know-why-south-australias-wind-farms-stopped-working-so-hold-off-on-the-blame-game

Northern America

• Jonathon Lipson on can-trump-create-millions-of-jobs-dont-bet-on-it
• Progrowth Liberal on Trump and taxes , rubin-or-trump-as-strong-dollar-type
• Sam Wang on presidential-debate-question-gerrymandering
• 538 on the-tax-returns-story-may-eat-up-precious-time-for-trump , election-update-how-big-is-hillary-clintons-lead , election-update-clintons-lead-is-becoming-safer , the-job-market-will-be-solid-on-election-day
• Cecchetti and Schoenholtz on how-risky-are-the-big-us-banks Thanks Mark 
• Menzie Chinn on on-reading-the-trump-economic-plan
• Timothy Taylor on snapshots-of-us-housing-market , rising-out-of-pocket-health-care-costs
• Narayana Kocherlakota on why-americans-feel-poor-in-one-chart Thanks Mark
• Federico Mandleman and Andrei Zlate on slump-undocumented-immigration-to-united-states Thanks Mark
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-hard-to-say-that-november-is-really-live
• Pat Higgins on taylor-rule Thanks Brad
• Frances Woolley on residential-schools-what-were-they-thinking
• Calculated risk on employment-comments-another-decent-report , public-and-private-sector-payroll-jobs-under-various-presidents
• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on what-about-the-planet
• Sam Wang on the-hardened-divide-why-donald-trump-is-mitt-romney-lite

Europe

• Chris Dillow on generational-vs-class-divides , footsies-verdict-on-brexit
• Kevin O'Rourke on what-should-ireland-be-looking-for
• Simon Wren-Lewis on little-englanders

Asia

• Timothy Taylor on china-flexes-toward-consumption
• Aaron Connelly on Obama-and-the-Israeli-story
• Roger Shanahan on Syria-What-are-we-going-to-do-now , Syria-What-we-could-do-now
• Euan Graham onWhat-the-Philippines-and-Australia-can-learn-from-Vietnam-about-living-with-China
• Dina Esfandiary on Post-sanctions-Iran-Has-the-performance-matched-the-promises

Wonk

• Brad De Long on how-seriously-should-we-take-the-new-keynesian-model
• Nick Rowe on front-vs-rear-wheel-steering-for-monetary-policy , the-brexit-news-boom
• Greg Ip on fiscal-policy-makes-a-quiet-turn-toward-stimulus Thanks Brad
• Joland Jeffen and Frank Mols on is-protectionism-a-siren-song-to-the-poor-or-to-the-wealthy
• Ross Guest on governments-and-central-banks-should-stop-trying-to-stimulate-the-economy
• Brendan Thomas Noone on As-tactical-nuclear-arsenals-are-modernised-the-risk-of-arms-racing-grows
• Noah Smith on hunting-rational-expectations-whale , there-s-a-surplus-of-worry-about-debt , breaking-the-spell-that-grips-economics , low-rates-are-here-to-stay
• David Andolfatto on beveridge-curves 
• Olivier Blanchard on further-thoughts-dsge-models Thanks Brad
• Stephen Grenville on Dont-blame-globalisation
• Richard Wellings on why-does-privatisation-sometimes-go-wrong Thanks Jim Rose
• James Hamilton on opec-production-cut
• Mike Kimel on punctuality-today-v-gdp-per-capita-tomorrow-a-look-at-a-few-countries
• Coppolla comment on why-is-global-trade-so-weak
• Roger Farmer on not KEEN on chaos
• Unassuming economist on imf-research-on-inequality-a-primer Thanks Mark
• Chris Dillow on mays-challenge-to-marxism , the-democracy-problem , socializing-investment
• Robert Waldmnn on benchmarks-model-and-hypotheses Thanks Mark
• Daniel Little on what-is-conceptual-history Thanks Mark
• Tim Harford on big-decision-ahead-just-roll-the-dice
• Menzie Chinn on imf-world-economic-outlook-october-2016
• Greg Jericho on imf-report-in-the-new-normal-of-the-post-gfc-world-sideways-is-the-new-up
• Jason Furman on the niew view of fiscal policy and its application Thanks Brad
• William Cline etal on lessons-decades-lost-economic-challenges-and-opportunities-facing-japan Thanks Brad
• David Glasner on rational-expectations-or-the-road-to-incoherence
• Mike Callaghan on Protectionist-spectre-looms-over-IMF-and-World-Bank-meetings
• Croaking Cassandra on boosting-exports-the-exchange-rate-really-matters
• Timothy Taylor on what-do-we-know-about-angel-investors , sorting-out-patent-trolls 
• Simon Wren-Lewis on very-serious-people-and-deficit

General

• Peter Dorman on antisemitism-and-anti-zionism-again
• Doverbeach on melissa-moschella-on-conjugal-union-what-marriage-is-and-why-it-matters
• Caleb Gardner on marine-parks-and-fishery-management-whats-the-best-way-to-protect-fish
• Lord Keynes on debunking-postmodernism-and-the-regressive-left-101
• Evita March on dont-feed-the-trolls-really-is-good-advice-heres-the-evidence

Climate

• David Appell on again-about-word-denier
• moyhu on reanalysis-index-up-0047-in-september , templs-surface-temperature-down-012
• and Then Theres Physics on thinking-like-a-planet
• Skeptical Science on sensitivity-training , doe-charts-why-climate-doom-gloom-not-needed 
• Arctic Sea Ice blog on the-2016-melting-season-in-images
• Rabett Run on chart-of-year
• Ricky Road on our-record-warmth-pointing-out-the-obvious
• Critical Angle on carbon-sequestration-in-basalts
• Tamino on xtreme-denial-2

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• astroturf-patient-advocacy-group-pushes-to-keep-drug-prices-high
• its-not-about-the-snobbery-its-all-about-reality-at-last-i-finally-understand-hatred-of-middlebrow
• the-never-admit-error-syndrome-and-the-fundamental-attribution-error
• did-colombia-really-vote-no-in-that-peace-referendum
• michael-lacour-vs-john-bargh-and-amy-cuddy
• the-dogs-and-the-stat-dogs
• its-ok-to-criticize
• note-to-reporters-if-theres-no-report-theres-no-study
• Geoff Cumming on one-reason-so-many-scientific-studies-may-be-wrong
• Kaiser Fung on if-you-are-practicing-your-power-pose-stop-now , data-is-the-next-frontier-of-equal-rights

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• some-suggested-reading-for-october
• No Hesitations on machine-learning-vs-econometrics-i
• Marc Bellamare on lagged explanatory variables and the estimation of causal effects Thanks Mark 

Dianne Coyle ( book reviews + quirky)

• not-so-nobel , more-on-the-economics-nobel-prize , corruption-with-chinese-characteristics
• Andrew Gelman on DJ Taylor and the windsor faction

vox wonk

• flexibility-new-hires-earnings-during-recession
• trade-policy-affects-firms-input-and-output-choices
• crisis-proof-services
• what-big-data-tells-us-about-real-income-growth
• what-we-really-know-about-global-financial-safety-net
• advanced-economies-progress-dismal-and-dazzling
• multinational-firms-and-tax-havens
• regulating-banks-maturity-risk-quantifying-gains-or-losses
• how-not-build-state-evidence-colombia
• geographic-expansion-banks-and-funding-costs-new-evidence
• how-quantitative-easing-works
• globalisation-and-anti-globalisation-voters-evidence-germany
• geographic-expansion-banks-and-funding-costs-new-evidence
• africa-s-trade-finance-market-facts-and-challenges
• piketty-s-housing-capital-results-new-us-facts

The South Australian Blackout

Yesterday we had the preliminary report om the blackout.

Here are the key lines
" The predicted weather front moved through SA on the afternoon of Wednesday 28 September 2016, including high winds, thunderstorms, lightning strikes, hail, and heavy rainfall. The weather resulted in multiple transmission system faults. In the short time between 16:16 and 16:18, system faults included the loss of three major 275 kV transmission lines north of Adelaide. Generation initially rode through the faults, but at 16:18, following an extensive number of faults in a short period, 315 MW of wind generation disconnected (one group at 16:18:09, a second group at 16:18:15), also affecting the region north of Adelaide. The uncontrolled reduction in generation resulted in increased flow on the main Victorian interconnector (Heywood) to make up the deficit. This resulted in the Heywood Interconnector overloading. To avoid damage to the interconnector, the automatic-protection mechanism activated, tripping the interconnector. In this event, this resulted in the remaining customer load and electricity generation in SA being lost (referred to as a Black System). This automatic-protection operated in less than half a second at 16:18. The event resulted in the SA regional electricity market being suspended"

THIS article and Katherine Murphy's column are pretty much on the money..

It was a TRANSMISSION failure not a generating failure.
What I found particularly interesting is they do not say the winds were too great for the windmills which is what EVERYONE was saying occurred.
We will have to wait for about six months to get the definitive report on the situation.

Update:
Steve from Brisbane write in this BUT has a wonderful link on the technical stuff

Further Update:

Dylan McConnell with some excellent advice! Tristan Edis as well

Gerry Jackson

Gerry Jackson use to write a very useful blog. Some people might think this is strange for an eclectic Keynesian to give a supporter of Classical economics such a wrap but Gerry was an original thinker and did his research.

Unfortunately I have great fears for Gerry. It is a long time since he wrote and he was in bad health. I hope my worst fears are unjustified but I do miss his missives.

Ricardian ambivalence has no health problems so we should have some more of his writings as well whilst I think of it!!

the Best Blog Rolls

Well there I was in Port Macquarie and I found out my wonderful blog roll was gone. I wasn't on my pat malone Mark the Ballot lost his as well.

Both our blog rolls are back with Mark the Ballot even better.

It gave me the thought of recommending some blog's blogrolls.  Most of these are on my blog roll. The ones that are not are linked.

1. Economist's View   Mark Thoma is the most comprehensive and in order but you have to know the blogs.  
2. Noah Opinion  Noah smith is much the same but does differentiate into categories
3. Mainly Macro  Simon Wren Lewis's blog roll is similar in looks to mine and is top quality.\
4. Mark the Graph  Always great to examine if only because Mark the Ballot is on it obviously!
5. Opinion Dominion Steve from Brisbane has a sensational blog roll put into different categories .Very good on climate change.
6. Utopia You are standing in it. Jim Rose has a varied and comprehensive blog roll.
7. Peter Martin    lots of sources as one might expect from a Journo
8. clubtroppo   A varied and interesting blog roll
9. hotwhopper  Best list of climate change blogs you need
10. catallaxyfiles   Surprised. They do have a comprehensive list.

I use them all when looking for articles to read or finding some for Around the Traps. My wife is always having a go at me for doing this but it is fun and most articles are very good.

The Presidential debate part 2

Now my thoughts coincide with Ezra Klein who writes well here and here.

However I want to examine two policies of  Trump when at his 'best' in the first 30 minutes of the debate.

First he said Mexico's VAT was a tax on US imports. Err it also taxes Mexican goods at the same rate.

Second he wants to renegotiate every bilateral agreement because the US lost out.

How many nations do you think would renegotiate an agreement which would involve the US having a trade surplus with each country. Yep. none. Thus trade barriers would rise.

Only Katesy could think they are good policies.

Deborah Harry

I didn't much like Deborah Harry or Blondie but how can you go past a song about Harry Dean Stanton. Loved him since Kelly's heroes.