Wednesday 25 September 2024

The CPI was good.

 The monthly CPI for august was released yesterday and it was good.

The main information was NOT the various governments programs reduced electricity prices. No no.

Let us quote the CBA economic research.   the easing in inflation is not solely due to electricity rebates and lower fuel prices (these were trimmed out). There continued to be a broadening in the breadth of disinflation. The number of items with annual price rises above 3% continued to fall while the number of items with annual price changes below 2% continued to rise. Also important is Today’s data is another further piece of evidence that inflationary pressures have continued to moderate over recent months. Timelier surveyed price measures have looked constructive over the September quarter. Growth in final prices in August in the NAB Business Survey fell to its lowest level since February 2021. And increases in output prices as measured by the PMIs eased to the slowest since December 2020.

Indeed we must ask why is the RBA behaving so? We can rule out they do not understand economics and economic statistics. That being the case why are they sso hawkish when clearly the economy is slowing quickly and the labour market is slowing? clearly the economy is not hot. Unless you want a recession fiscal policy is about right now. more fiscal consolidation is needed as the economy improves/

I think the only reason is the RBA wants people to stop spending money ( they are) and if happens because of what RBA personnel are saying then that is good.

Everything is pointing to rates being cut this year!


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