Around the Traps 20/9/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• John Blaxland on australia-cant-afford-an-aukus-about-face-5-things-the-critics-are-getting-wrong
• Tracy Comans and Frances Batchelor on what-the-governments-home-care-changes-mean-for-ageing-australians
• Ross Gittins on economists-have-glaring-problem-themselves , the-best-thing-our-pollies-have-done-in-in-decades-is-aalso-the-worst , why-planet-needs-economy-to-go-round-in-circles
• Andrea Carson on the-death-of-printed-newspapers-has-long-been-predicted-but-there-are-still-some-pleasing-signs-of-life
• Ross Gittins on all-reasons-house-prices-will-keep-rising-until-we-wake-up
• croaking cassandra on human-nature-doesnt-change
• Timothy Welch on faster-is-not-always-better-why-the-case-for-higher-speed-limits-is-fatally-flawed
• Melissa Tham on the-productivity-commission-wants-all-australian-kids-to-get-3-days-a-week-of-childcare-but-it-wont-be-until-2036
• Frank Yuan on international-students-australia-has-good-problem-may-not-last
• Paul Karp on australia-housing-crisis-coalition-first-homebuyers-super-plan-impact
• Nicki Hutley on australia-housing-crisis-affordability-policies-coalition
• Jeff Borland on unemployment-of-4-2-is-a-sign-of-rba-success-but-it-might-not-last-heres-why
• Saul Eslake on australia-housing-crisis-negative-geating

OZ Climate

• more-than-15gw-of-wind-solar-and-batteries-and-2gw-of-long-duration-storage-pile-in-to-landmark-nsw-tenders
  
• nsw-aims-for-a-million-solar-battery-homes-in-landmark-consumer-energy-strategy-for-no-coal-grid
  
• genex-lines-up-new-partner-for-biggest-solar-farm-as-coal-giant-steps-in-to-fill-fortescues-hydrogen-void
  
• rooftop-solar-makes-record-high-contribution-to-grid-on-same-day-home-battery-push-announced
  
• australian-based-renewables-giant-fights-off-unwelcome-bid-from-serial-polluter
  
• affordable-nuclear-duttons-plan-would-add-nearly-1000-a-year-to-the-power-bill-of-a-family-of-four
  
• Graham Readfearn on global-heating-is-making-el-nino-and-la-nina-forecasts-less-reliable-bom-says
• Peter Hannan on coalition-nuclear-power-plan-will-add-665-dollars-to-average-power-bill-a-year-report-warns
• Johanna Bowyer and Tristan Edis on nuclear-australia-will-increase-household-power-bills-question-how-much

Northern America

• John Authers on inflation numbers resolve what the debate couldn't Thanks Brad
• fresh economic thinking on glaesers-dreadful-housing-analysis Thanks Nick
• the conversable economist on student-loans-not-just-about-attending-college
• Brad De Long on reading-two-recent-speeches-from-two-senior-federal-reserve-policymakers , watching-the-fed-anticipated-rate-rollercoaster
• noahopinion on harris-needs-to-be-pennsylvania-frackings-biggest-champion , the-dark-vision-of-america
• Andrew Prokop on nate-silver-2024-polls-trump-harris
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on scotus-john-roberts-image-fail-phony-false
• Mark Stern on ohio-supreme-court-voter-fraud-gop
• Ayman Ishmail on springfield-ohio-trump-cat-dog-eating-migrants
• Menzie Chinn on steve-kamin-the-fed-is-nearly-the-worlds-most-hawkish-central-bank
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-nevada-ballot-green-party
• David Frum on trump-vance-x-campaign-losing
• Adam Serwer on trumps-campaign-immigrants-springfield-ohio-haiti
• Fintan OToole on trump-old-news-debate
• Angry Bear on out-in-the-open-election-officials-strategizing-to-undermine-2024-results
• Jeet Heer on trump-laura-loomer-loomered , vance-bullshit-blood-libel

Europe

• back of mind on the-mean-reversion-imps Thanks Brad
• Grant Wyeth on has-sweden-lost-art-walking-talk
• Menzie Chinn on bofit-russia-continued-on-a-more-moderate-growth-path-in-july
• Tyler Cowen on the-economic-consequences-of-the-french-wealth-tax
• Mainly Macro on october-budget-4-good-and-bad-reasons-to-have-fiscal-rules
• noahopinion on four-thoughts-on-eurosclerosis

Asia

• Samuel Bashfield on implications-india-s-newest-ballistic-missile-submarine
• noahopinion on xi-jinping-vs-macroeconomics
• Khang Vu on north-korean-elite-defectors-rise
• Gaurav Saini and Dirk Van der Klay on quad-should-talk-about-fair-indo-pacific
• Peter Leavy on step-change-beijing-s-lawfare-south-china-sea
• Jonathan Chait on donald-trump-is-a-threat-to-democracy-and-saying-so-is-not-incitement
• Amin Saikal on will-the-exploding-pager-attack-be-the-spark-that-ignites-an-israel-hezbollah-war
• Mick Ryan on pager-bombs-precision-warfare-takes-personal-turn-lebanon
• Fred Kaplan on israel-hezbollah-pagers-explosions-lebanon-why-whats-next
• Ian Johnson on chinas-iconoclast-i-have-no-enemies-liu-xiaobo
• Nic Bisley on as-the-quad-meets-again-is-it-all-optics-and-no-substance
• Greg Earl on indonesia-jokowi-s-real-legacy-unpredictable-successor
• Humayoon Babar on taliban-s-gas-pipedream

Wonk

• Dani Rodrik on new-trilemma-of-climate-change-global-poverty-rich-countries-middle-classes Thanks Brad
• useful fictions on how-to-be-more-agentic Thanks Nick
• institutional economics on the-simon-ehrlich-wager-over-123 years
• Marc Cheong and Wonsun Shin on the-internet-is-worse-than-it-used-to-be-how-did-we-get-here-and-can-we-go-back
• Zena Assaad et al on global-powers-are-grappling-with-responsible-use-of-military-ai-what-would-that-look-like
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-impact-of-climate-risk-on-fiscal-space-does-political-stability-and-financial-development-matter
• Rodney Tiffen on rupert-murdochs-real-life-succession-drama-is-underway-in-a-nevada-courtroom-what-might-happen-next
• Brad De Long on reading-about-rome
• Ned Curthoys on hannah-arendt-wanted-political-thinking-to-be-urgent-and-engaged-she-is-a-philosopher-for-our-times
• Henry Farrell on a-modest-interpretation-of-straussianism-in-action
• Tyler Cowen on why-do-workers-dislike-inflation
• the conversable economist on how-can-one-tell-if-openness-to-trade-helps-economic-growth
• Alexander Howard on friday-essay-we-all-live-in-the-world-of-ayn-rand-egomaniac-godmother-of-libertarianism-can-fiction-help-us-navigate-it
• Joel Eissenberg on sars-cov-2-and-the-wuhan-wet-market
• Tyler Cowen on exciting-economics-is-often-misguided-economics

General

• Tim Harford on the-real-questions-posed-by-counterfeit-clobber
• Andrew Tompkins on hidden-craters-reveal-earth-may-once-have-had-a-ring-like-saturn
• Bruce Watt and Katarina Fritzon on whats-the-difference-between-a-psychopath-and-a-sociopath-less-than-you-might-think
• Luke Barnes on astronomers-just-detected-the-biggest-black-hole-jets-ever-seen-and-named-them-porphyrion

Climate

• skeptical science on fact-brief-co2increase , 2024-unusually-persistent-warmth
• David Appell on methane-rising

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• freakonomics-asks-why-is-there-so-much-fraud-in-academia-but-without-addressing-one-big-incentive-for-fraud-which-is-that-if-you-make-grabby-enough-claims-you-can-get-features-in-freako
  
• shreddergate-a-fascinating-investigation-into-possible-dishonesty-in-a-psychology-experiment
  
• 20-years-of-blogging-what-are-your-favorite-posts
  
• election-prediction-markets-what-happens-next
  
• instability-of-win-probability-in-election-forecasts-with-a-little-bit-of-r
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• techno-financial-imperium
  

Vox Wonk

• growth-stabilises-debt-and-reduces-fiscal-inflation-new-perspective-monetary-fiscal
  
• long-and-variable-lags-monetary-policy-evidence-disaggregated-price-indices
  
• local-decline-and-populism
  
• winners-and-losers-bank-resolution-recent-examples-and-modest-reform-proposal
  
• investing-defence-european-public-good
  
• central-bank-independence-views-history-and-machine-learning
  
• draghi-right-many-issues-he-wrong-telecoms
  
• shadows-sunrise-how-overcome-middle-income-trap
  
• post-pandemic-us-inflation-tale-fiscal-and-monetary-policy
  
• impact-de-risking-correspondent-banks-international-trade
  
• draghis-real-message-european-competition-enforcement-not-delivering-innovation-and
  
• behind-scenes-survey-disagreement-interpreting-experts-judgement
  
• drivers-post-pandemic-inflation
  
• consequences-transitioning-climate-neutral-economy
  

US Politics

 Taylor Swift

not a fan of her but her statement was impressive. States reasons why she is voting for Harris. Did not say to vote for her BUT to do their research and then vote. Provided a link for those who needed to register to vote.As I said impressive.

FED

Cut rates by 50 basis points. About time and they appear behind the curve. Inflation has been under control for some time if you take annualised rates.

Haitian immigrants

This showed up two things. Trump lies like there is no tomorrow. JD Vance said he had contacts from constituents. firstly you examine the evidence. There is none. Second release the correspondence. He hasn't because either there aren't any or it would be embarrassing to do so.

The second thing is Trump supporters in the media cannot accept he is a liar and they like to show what he says has truth to it. Trust me if a person saw their pet bit just dead but being eaten they would inform the police but also film it or take photographs. This happens all the time but in this instance nothing.

They cannot admit it was a racist lie. the Haitians are immigrants courtesy of a Reagan law. They are very hardworking as Springfield employers attest to.

the USA is an immigrant country. It will go backwards if this changes. Trump has already stated he wil deport all haitians to Venezuela (senility).  done on a large scale as Trump threatens it would have dreadful effecrts on the labour force and mean recession. Add that to his tariff madness and you would have inflation as well!

time is marching on

 Steve from Brisbane celebrated his 64th birthday last wednesday. Well it is my birthday today and i am the same age as john Quiggin however since his birthday is in April his is a tad older!

I am sorry to say getting old sucks. You need to see the doctor more often and ensure your health insurance is up to date. I have seen hospitals more often than I would like to.

You need to sleep more. I find an afternoon nap essential although it is not long.

The major problem is the world.

Russia invaded Ukraine and the Western world still is frighten of helping ukraine win. After Hamas murdered innocent Israelis the Israeli government has killed over 40,000s of palestinians in attempting to kill hamas operatives. This is collective punishment and therefore a war crime and few countries object. People talk of a two state solution. It won't happen. Gaza is rubble and Israel won't help re-build it. The are over 750,000 israelis living in the West bank illegally. more will come.

All this will perpetuate violence 

One of the candidates for US President is a convicted criminal. He has been convicted of fraud, the company he controls has been convicted of fraud, he has been convicted of sexual assault which the Judge said was akin to rape and finally he falsified business records so people would not find out he had sex with a pron star. Finally lies like there is no tomorrow. Yet the election is close.

It is hard to be optimistic about the future!

Where I hand it over to Steve

 Steve from Brisbane ( who is 4 years  younger than I )writes all about it. The Jonathan Chait article is in this weeks Around the Traps on friday.

Kevin Drum is highly relevant as well. 

Around the Traps 13/9/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Benjamin Cark on paul-keating-superannuation-view-crumbling Thanks Nick
• Ross Gittins on if-theres-no-price-gouging-how-come-interest-rates-are-so-high , our-gambling-obsession-is-doing-great-harm-to-addicts-and-their-families
• croaking cassandra on remunerating-exchange-settlement-accounts-what-is-mof-up-to
• Kristy Hess on local-papers-are-central-to-our-democracy-we-must-do-more-to-bring-them-out-of-crisis
• Ben Wadham and James O'Connor on didnt-care-enough-heres-what-the-royal-commission-into-defence-and-veteran-suicide-found
• Sussannah Patton on china-s-rise-southeast-asia-bringing-golden-age-australia
• Hazel Easthope et al on many-strata-managers-who-handle-apartments-are-conflicted-heres-how
• Kevin Bonham on crying-wolf-more-embarrassingly-bad-tabloid-poll-reporting
• Michelle Grattan on aged-care-reform-self-funded-retirees-and-part-pensioners-to-pay-more-as-government-aims-to-shore-up-the-system

OZ Climate

• the-massive-new-projects-propelling-south-australia-towards-100-per-cent-net-renewables
  
• solar-and-battery-microgrid-saves-lord-howe-island-1-5m-in-diesel-fuel-costs-in-two-years
  
• like-running-hazelwood-for-106-years-labor-says-duttons-nuke-plan-will-be-akin-to-a-carbon-bomb
  
• origin-energy-boosts-its-bet-on-the-12-hour-battery-technology-that-could-help-kick-out-coal
  
• share-of-renewables-hits-record-high-on-australias-main-grid-pushes-coal-to-new-low
  
• hills-of-gold-wind-farm-wins-state-development-consent-and-fight-for-more-turbines
  
• victorias-biggest-solar-farm-biggest-battery-cleared-for-construction-in-heart-of-the-latrobe-valley
  
• six-ways-to-improve-ecosystem-outcomes-of-renewable-energy
  
• breeding-grounds-flight-paths-and-climate-change-getting-balance-right-on-wind-and-solar-approvals
  

Northern America

• Kruggers on trump-afd-germany-manufacturing-economy Thanks Nick
• George Boone on three-safe-bets-47th-president-s-foreign-policy
• Brad De Long on the-hunters-of-kentucky-the-jacksonian-thread-of-american-nationalismy
• Ian Millhiser on republican-government-shutdown-save-act-voter-disenfranchisement
• Shirin Ali on trump-trials-jack-smith-tanya-chutkan-federal-election-interference-case-hearings
• noahopinion on the-us-needs-to-pay-more-attention-to-electronic-warfare, yes-haitians-are-good-enough-to-be-americans
• new deal democrat on leading-indicators-from-fridays-jobs-report , august-cpi-further-important-progress-towards-2-yoy-level-marred-only-by-a-surprise-uptick-in-shelter
• Bill Haskell on enforcing-a-supreme-court-ethics-code , another-perspective-of-the-harris-trump-meeting
• Christian Paz on trust-polls-2016-2020-election-2024-pollster-polling-miss
• the conversable economist on us-productivity-growth-downside-upside , foreign-students-in-us-higher-education
• Kevin Drum on tariffs-are-not-as-nuanced-as-the-new-york-times-says
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-03
• Daniel Flitton on harris-vs-trump-marks-lines-foreign-policy-debate
• Peter Wehner on kamala-harris-broke-donald-trump
• Sussan Glasser on donald-trump-had-a-really-really-bad-debate
• Tyler Cowen on how-much-of-the-recent-inflation-was-caused-by-deficits , which-u-s-stocks-generated-the-highest-long-term-returns
• Nicole Narea on affirmative-action-black-enrollment-universities-diversity-supreme-court
• Jeet Heer on trump-harris-debate-bait-strategy
• Eric Levitz on trump-vance-haitian-immigrants-pets-springfield-ohio-polls-aidan-clark

Europe

• Frederic Sawicki on michel-barnier-named-french-prime-minister-emmanuel-macron-just-gave-the-national-rally-the-keys-to-the-truck
• Jon Richardson on is-russias-changing-nuclear-doctrine-a-significant-concern-or-just-another-empty-threat
• Mainly Macro on october-budget-3-in-presenting-macroeconomic-fiscal-stance
• noahopinion on p/six-ideas-for-poland
• stumbling and mumbling on beyond-tax-rises

Asia

• Jonathan Campbell-James on iran-s-shadow-hand-houthi-red-sea-attacks
• Mubashar Hasan on rights-based-priority-relations-bangladesh
• Benjamin Herscovitch on beijing-s-one-china-principle-spreading
• Tyler Cowen on why-indian-firms-dont-scale
• Kourosh Ziabari on what-iranians-want-their-country
• John Quiggin on implausibility-taiwan-blockade
• Samuel Bashfield on implications-india-s-newest-ballistic-missile-submarine

Wonk

• Institutional Economics on a-short-history-of-the-second-monetarist-revolution
• Antara Halder on bangladesh-yunus-microfinance-basis-for-new-model-of-economic-thinking Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on what-geeks-can-learn-from-sport
• the conversable economist on lab-grown-diamonds-an-origin-story , the-double-irish-dutch-sandwich-end-of-a-tax-evasion-strategy
• sandwichman on basil-oberholzers-last-hour
• Menzie Chinn on choi-dang-kirpalani-perez-on-exorbitant-privilege-and-the-sustainability-of-us-public-debt
• Gideon Lewis-Kraus on the-angst-and-sorrow-of-jewish-currents

General

• Andres Suares-Castro  and Rachel Oh on our-cities-are-losing-the-small-colourful-songbirds-that-give-us-the-most-joy
• Deanne Fisher on new-measurements-reveal-the-enormous-halos-that-shroud-all-galaxies-in-the-universe
• Henry Farrell on patrick-obrian-is-a-great-conservative-writer
• Teresa Ubide on crystals-hold-a-secret-history-of-volcanoes-and-clues-about-future-eruptions
• Dan Golding on james-earl-jones-has-died-but-as-the-voice-of-darth-vader-he-will-live-forever
• Alice Clement and John Long on exceptional-new-fish-fossil-sparks-rethink-of-how-earths-geology-drives-evolution
• John Long on friday-essay-giant-shark-megalodon-was-the-most-powerful-superpredator-ever-why-did-it-go-extinct
• Lauren Jackson on james-earl-joness-voice-was-something-more

Climate

• Laura Revell et al on the-ozone-hole-above-antarctica-will-keep-opening-up-each-spring-for-decades-to-come-heres-why-that-still-matters
• David Appell on the-trend-in-ocean-acidification
• Moyhu on august-global-surface-templs-up-0065-from-july-record-august-temperature
• Pep Canadell et al on methane-emissions-are-at-new-highs-it-could-put-us-on-a-dangerous-climate-path
• skeptical science on new-models-stronger-more-hurricanes
• moyhu on giss-august-global-temperature-up-by-.09

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• christakis-fowler-update-update
  
• evil-scamming-fake-publishers
  
• sports-gambling-addiction-epidemic-fueled-by-some-combination-of-psychology-economics-and-politics
  
• heres-a-useful-response-by-christakis-to-criticisms-of-the-contagion-of-obesity-claims
  
• the-mainstream-press-is-failing-america-uk-edition
  
• awesome-online-graph-guessing-game-and-scatterplot-charades
  
• decisions-of-democrats-to-run-moderate-or-extreme-candidates
  
• b-school-prof-data-sleuth-lawsuit-fails
  
• its-stanford-time-baby-8-hour-time-restricted-press-releases-linked-to-a-91-higher-risk-of-hype
  
• movements-in-the-prediction-markets-and-going-beyond-a-black-box-view-of-markets-and-prediction-models
  
• supercentenarian-superfraud-update
  
• Kaiser Fung on correlation-and-causation , know-your-data-40-when-they-know-where-you-are

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox Wonk

• online-versus-person-services-effects-patients-and-providers
  
• religion-matters-economic-growth-through-various-channels
  
• economics-organisational-strategy
  
• demographic-change-individual-blessing-headwinds-european-growth
  
• much-money-little-capital-and-few-reforms-2023-banking-turmoil
  
• no-solid-scientific-basis-degrowth
  
• impact-wealth-inequality-economic-growth-evidence-italy-during-its-structural
  
• global-environmental-cooperation-and-innovation
  
• resilience-sailing-ship
  

Harris monstered Trump

 When something happens and it goes exactly as you predicted it is entirely satisficing.So it was with the 'debate' yesterday.

Let us go back a tad. firstly Trump di not win the last debate. Biden scored a really bad own goal. Indeed Biden's performance let people forget how dreadful Trump was. Also important as Harry Enten pointed out he had lost almost every debate he has been in.

On Harris's side too many people have conflated her very unimpressive presidential bid with now. As i have written previously she could not use her background in the primaries.She was given the nickname Coppala. She then veered left and looked uncconvincing.Everything changed when the Supreme court upended roe V Wade. She was the first to see the electoral consequences. This completely changed her. Her self confidence grew almost exponentially. She then thought she knew the electorate and it showed.

Her campaign was typical of this. A supremely self confident politician.

Harris came into the 'debate' well prepared. Trump di not and it showed. HArris dominated the 'debate' and essentially made the issues. TRump looked old, tired and angry. Harris looked happy, confident and engaged. Most importantly she looked god when not talking whereas Trump looked terrible. Add to this she got into Trump's head and lead him down various rabbit holes and you can see why this 'debate' was so overwhelming for Harris.

Harris looked like an ex-President. Trump did not

If Harris is so dumb then what does that make Trump.

Debates rarely move elections so take that into account.

I might just make a comparison with Hillary Clinton. Clinton had more policies than possibly any other candidate but she had no political smarts. Harris had that in spades. Also important is the point Harris is an attractive woman, Clinton is/was not. This helps.

the two Kevins

 First Kevin Drum on tariffs. Yes he is correct.Only US consumers and producers wil pay any increase in US tariffs.

Second Kevin Bonham investigates 'strange' reporting of polls. Perhaps we can call it shahanning polls!

Naraly I will be watching the 'debate', Few people realise that Trump has never 'won' a debate. ( Biden lost on a bad own goal last time.) I will have a few thoughts on it tomorrow.

A little bit on sport

 I am getting old. I want to avoid serious issues today and concentrate on football and cricket.

Football

The socceroos were woeful against Bahrain. The selection was strange. Behich and Duke are clearly past their best. We had no creativity in the midfield and it showed up bigtime. For all the possession we had we rarely looked like scoring. We allowed the opposition to frustrate us and it showed in yellow cards. ( The referee was poor and some of the yellow cards were mystifying).

At least we have found a right back. We had pace upfront but for some unfathomable  when the young man came on and looked good on the right he was switched to the left where he did not know what to do.

We play Indonesia tonight and they drew with Saudia Arabia after leading them.

We can only hope they improve a lot.

Cricket

The poms have finished their summer of cricket. The West indies were more cold than hot and Sri Lanka were not much better until the Pommy batsmen batted as if it did not matter in the second innings at the oval.

From an Ashed perspective the poms have good depth in batting and wicket keeping. Their fast bowlers apart from a 34 year old Wood could not break 90 mph. This is not good if they come to Australia. Their spinning options are worse. finger spinners are money for jam out here and there was no attempt to promote their legspinner.

It seems we will be relying on an aging pace attack. This may work. more to say after the series with India is concluded

Bill Shorten retires

 Bill Shorten has announced he is going to retire to become Vice Chancellor of the University of Canberra.

Bill Shorten was the head of the AWU before entering parliament. He was one of the university educated union officials. for those interested he got a Arts and law degree and then later a MBA. 

He first came to prominence when he was the public face of the workers down in Tasmania when two miners were  almost buried beneath the surface.

He got to parliament and rose to cabinet level pretty quickly introducing the NDIS to Australia. He switched sides twice in leadership. Firstly turfing out Rudd and then bringing him back.

Perhaps because of this he immediately on assuming being the Leader of the Opposition was to bring a party disunited together again. This was understandable given they lost in a landslide. In this he succeeded. Indeed he was so successful in this and at combatting Tony Abbott as PM he was in line to win in a landslide (although to be fair Tony Abbott's total ineptness helped). This led the Liberals to get rid of Abbott.

Turnbull then won a close election which all the polls showed would be the case although few actually believed them. Turnbull blamed mediscare for the result although the polls showed it made very little impact. Shorten was slow to understand how to combat Turnbull.

In the nest campaign Shorten lost the unlosable election however because of massive polling failures we still do not know why.

Since being in government again Shorten has been perhaps the most impressive minister.

Johnny Jenkins

 I first heard this when I bought Duane Allman's An Anthology.

I thought it fantastic.

So here it is

Around the Traps 6/9/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on gdp-is-going-backwards-that-doesnt-mean-your-life-is-too , albos-quiet-quest-stop-wasting-so-much-taxpayers-money , our-economy-has-turned-into-tortoise-the-RBA-will-be-pleased
• Kevin Bonham on supporting-first-past-post-for-Australia-is-pointless-for-Australia , poll-roundup-505-is-new-51
• Peter Brent on peter-duttons-road-to-nowhere Thanks Nick
• Sam Bennet and Hannah Orban on the-ndis-is-failing-profoundly-disabled-people-who-are-stuck-in-group-homes-heres-how-to-fix-this
• John Quiggin on australians-should-be-angry-about-coles-latest-billion-dollar-profit-but-dont-blame-the-cost-of-living
• John Simon on after-working-for-the-rba-for-30-years-heres-how-id-make-it-more-accountable
• Chris Cunneen et al on locking-up-young-people-might-make-you-feel-safer-but-it-doesnt-work-now-or-in-the-long-term
• croaking cassandra on an-excellent-working-relationship-with-the-governor , should-nz-establish-a-fiscal-council
• Greg Jericho on australia-economy-gdp-growth-rba-interest-rates
• Stephen Bartos on this-is-the-weakest-economy-outside-of-a-recession-heres-what-the-gdp-figures-show
• Leonora Risse on whats-a-recession-and-how-can-we-tell-if-were-in-one
• Kate Griffiths on gambling-is-causing-great-harm-heres-how-to-tip-the-odds-back-in-the-communitys-favour
• Nicholas Davis on how-australias-new-ai-guardrails-can-clean-up-the-messy-market-for-artificial-intelligence
• John Quiggin on chalmers-is-more-in-touch-with-the-economy-than-the-rba

OZ Climate

• rinehart-and-forrest-two-billionaires-two-polar-opposites-on-renewables
  
• wind-and-solar-investment-ticks-up-but-still-a-long-way-to-go-to-meet-scale-of-renewable-target
  
• six-new-big-battery-projects-emerge-as-winners-of-first-capacity-tender
  
• australias-most-powerful-battery-ready-for-commissioning-after-achieving-grids-biggest-connection
  
• wind-and-solar-dominated-south-australia-overtakes-tasmania-as-australias-most-renewable-state
  
• nuclear-wont-cut-it-cca-says-australia-must-go-all-in-on-renewables-to-meet-climate-targets
  
• australia-must-keep-its-eyes-on-the-green-iron-prize-the-cost-of-inaction-is-untenable
  
• David Bowman on its-time-to-give-up-on-normal-what-winters-weird-weather-means-for-the-warm-months-ahead
• Frank Jotzo on can-we-really-reach-net-zero-by-2050-a-new-report-maps-out-australias-path-in-more-detail-than-ever-before
• IEEFA on how-much-water-does-nuclear-really-need

Northern America

• Kevin Drum on a-case-study-in-propaganda
• noahopinion on progressives-need-to-learn-to-take-the-W , biden-did-stuff-and-it-looks-like-its-working , why-cant-the-us-build-ships
• Brad De Long on making-sense-of-the-career-of-donald-trump
• Shirin Ali on 2024-election-swing-states-voting-rights-alarming
• Robert Waldmann on the-us-economy-is-the-envy-of-the-first-world
• Brad De Long on america-has-no-alternative-to-industrial-policy
• Aja Romano on tenet-media-russia-what-happened-tim-pool-dave-rubin-benny-johnson-lauren-southern
• Frank Figluizzi on georgia-high-school-shooting-parents-answers
• Jeet Heer on trump-weird-coalition-strategy

Europe

• David Dunn on ukraine-war-us-military-support-for-kyiv-has-been-very-cautious-heres-how-a-harris-presidency-could-change-that
• Evan Freidin on russia-really-european-anymore
• Tim Harford on the-strange-illusory-rise-in-uk-inequality
• Mainly Macro on october-budget-2-how-much-do-uk-taxes-have-to-rise
• stumbling and mumbling on playing-by-the-rules

Asia

• Shahram Akbarzadah on is-irans-anti-israel-and-american-rhetoric-all-bark-and-no-bite
• Ellen Ioannes on west-bank-violence-jenin-raid-settler-idf-israel-gaza-hamas
• institutional economics on china-policymakers-shooting-the-bond-market-messenger
• Selwyn Parker on hong-kong-keeps-russia-s-dark-fleet-afloat
• Franklin Foer on hersh-goldberg-polin-hostage
• David Schulman on an-unlawful-presence-israel-international-court-of-justice
• Jonathan Campbell-Jones on iran-s-shadow-hand-houthi-red-sea-attacks

Wonk

• noahopinion on anti-neoliberalism-is-not-enough , how-do-you-deal-with-real-actual-nazis
• Tyler Cowen on sometimes-people-overrate-marginal-value-and-underrate-average-value
• Mark Pierce on patriot-s-virtue-understanding-world
• Scott Summer on are-low-wages-a-competitive-advantage-in-trade Thanks Tyler
• Tariq Choucair on brazil-just-banned-x-could-other-countries-follow-suit
• Marina Zhang on antimony-hidden-metal-fuelling-global-competition
• Sarah Loughran and Ken Karipidis on mobile-phones-are-not-linked-to-brain-cancer-according-to-a-major-review-of-28-years-of-research
• Sergey Sukhankin on will-russia-violate-antarctic-treaty
• Kieran Thompson on aukus-pillar-ii-growing-too-quickly
• Charlie Savage on a-terrible-mistake-the-achilles-trap-steve-coll
• the conversable economist on everything-you-want-to-know-about-inequality-the-ifs-deaton-review

General

• Craig Barker on angry-wise-or-plain-horny-zeus-comes-in-many-forms-onscreen-just-as-he-did-in-the-original-myths
• Hrvoje Tkalcic on seismic-echoes-reveal-a-mysterious-donut-inside-earths-core

Climate

• this is not cool on its-not-just-the-heat-its-the-steadily-rising-humidity
• skeptical science on fact-brief-cycle , detecting-climate-misinformation-Twitter-X
• the conversable economist on physical-realities-of-moving-to-cleaner-energy
• ocean acidification on antarctic-benthic-ecological-change
• Caroline Shaw on healthier-happier-fairer-new-research-shows-major-life-benefits-from-decarbonising-transport

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• loga-x-not-log1-x
  
• my-basic-question-is-do-we-really-need-data-to-be-analysed-by-both-methods
  
• chutzpah-is-their-superpower
  
• should-you-always-include-a-varying-slope-for-the-lower-level-variable-involved-in-a-cross-level-interaction
  
• in-search-of-a-theory-associating-honest-citation-with-a-higher-deeper-level-of-understanding-than-dishonest-plagiarism
  
• the-nyt-sinks-to-a-new-low-in-political-coverage
  
• meritocracy-and-womens-tennis
  
• Kaiser Fung on doping-pops-up-in-the-news

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• where-did-summer-go
  
• Andrew Gelman on the-waltz-of-reason-and-a-paradox-of-book-reviewing

vox wonk

• macroeconomics-narratives
  
• resolving-stakeholder-governance-dilemma-integrated-performance-approach
  
• persistent-human-costs-deindustrialisation-lessons-collapse-british-coal-industry
  
• using-public-debt-deliver-long-term-investments-and-reforms
  
• understanding-effects-cost-living-crisis-role-interest-rates-and-mortgage-debt
  
• wage-insurance-trade-displaced-workers-middle-ground-alternative-rising-protectionism
  
• targeted-restrictions-teenage-drivers-promising-approach-improving-road-safety
  
• good-management-practices-are-great-productivity-well-profit-shifting
  
• macroprudential-policies-and-industrial-growth-cross-country-evidence-over-last-30
  
• urban-wage-premium-women-evidence-across-wage-distribution
  
• intended-and-unintended-consequences-welfare-cuts-refugees
  
• public-investment-orphan-politics
  
• exchange-rate-models-are-better-you-think-and-why-they-didnt-work-old-days
  

Poll roundup

The inimitable Kevin Bonham does his usual poll roundup for which we are all grateful.

I might make a couple of points.

The ALP government is very timid and cautious. something Ross Gittins alludes to.

They are apparently getting blamed for inflation. This could only occur if they didn't make headlines about inflation when they gained office.

Jim Chalmers has essentially copied his old boss Wayne Swan. He has completely ignored the structural deficit. Has he done so he might have gotten more kudos concerning the budget and told of why he had to go softly softly because of recession fears and highlight how the Coalition made no attempt to cut the structural deficit.

Their attitude to gambling is troubling. Everyone wants something done but they seem to be afraid of the lobby re elections.

Their policy on renewables and the coaction's on nuclear power should be a certain winner but it isn't!

I could go on but you get my drift.

Jim Chalmers is right

 The economy has been hit hard by the RBA's action of raising interest rates.

We still have no idea of what they are doing. Do they believe they have to raise interest rates further and put Australia into recession to reduce inflation?  Just when did inflation which was a supply side shock, not unlike the 1970s oil s pice shock, turn into inflation bey excess demand?

Why is it all the market type factors have been falling but not so much the non-market factors.

Just where in the hell is the economy hot so to speak?

The RBA has been all over the place in attempting to explain its position. I di not think michelle Bullock should have been Governor. Lowe did not make his mistakes on his own and Bullock seems not to understand what occurred in the recession we had to have which was a direct result of RBA policy.

I do have sympathy for Chalmers. The previous government made no attempt at all at fiscal consolidation even when it was apparent the economy was in a rude stake. As I have argued previously it is very hard to attempt this once the RBA has raised rates and are still doing it. He has done some but is understandably wary of doing too much in case it creates a recession.

Raising rates has caused the economy to slow dramatically. The RBA now should know if they have done all the rate rises they need to or not. I think they have.

For all the speeches , press conferences etc their communication has been pretty poor.

what to make of AEMO's warning

 We are fortunate to have Alison Reeve of the Grattan Institute fame helps us understand what they are stating.

If I can make one obvious statement that is related. Rooftop solar or solar in general is incompatible with baseload power. Google solar duck curve!

The other thing is if no-one in private enterprise wants to go near coal fired power stations and they are vastly cheaper than nuclear power stations why would any sane person champion nuclear power station? Answer they wouldn't. It is all about culture wars. No-one is that stupid except they are shooting themselves in the foot because as Maggie Thatcher was wont to say there is no alternative ( to renewables).

Trump can't play a trick

 You know things are going badly when you plan a slam dunk election point and it blows up in your face.

Trump was ready to criticise Biden's plan of abandoning Afghanistan ( even though it was Trump's).

Biden was President and he okayed it so he he either the applause or the criticism. It was a disaster.

This was an issue that Trump should have hit out of the park.

It blew up in his face.

We can only assume his team di not know the correct rules when it wa planned and when they did they did not care.

The issue now is about Trump again showing no regard for deceased US soldiers. Who in the hell gives a thumbs up at Arlington? They then physically force a worker away who was just doing her job and then just for good measure insult her.

Not good for attracting independent voters or those who are wavering republican voters.

It also shows a campaign in disarray.